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ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
Economics and Policy

STEPHEN MUDDIMAN

Palgrave Studies in
NATURAL RESOURCE
MANAGEMENT
Palgrave Studies in Natural Resource
Management

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London, UK
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 Stephen Muddiman

Ecosystem Services
Economics and Policy
Stephen Muddiman
Harwood Biology
Great Harwood, UK

Palgrave Studies in Natural Resource Management

ISBN 978-3-030-13818-9 ISBN 978-3-030-13819-6 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-13819-6

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 Contents

Introduction 1

Basics 25

Parallels and Function 71

Valuing Ecosystems 97

A New Model 129

Effects and Applications 151

Index 161

v
 List of Figures

Introduction
Fig. 1 Global GDP (Source World Bank national accounts data
and OECD national accounts data files) 7
Fig. 2 Japan GDP (Source World Bank national accounts data
and OECD national accounts data files) 10
Fig. 3 Duck or rabbit? (Source Jastrow) 13
Fig. 4 Aristotle’s solar system 14
Fig. 5 Ptolemy’s solar system 15
Fig. 6 Copernicus’s solar system 16

Basics
Fig. 1 Classification of Ecosystem Services (Source Millenium
Ecosystem Assessment). Note Darkest arrows show greatest
potential for mediation by socio-economic factors. Widest
arrows show greatest intensity of linkage 37
Fig. 2 Types of regulating service 41
Fig. 3 Global tourism revenue (Source statistica.com) 44
Fig. 4 US government debt (Source Tradingeconomics.com |
US Department of the Treasury) 50

vii
viii   List of Figures

Parallels and Function

Fig. 1 UK debt to GDP (Source tradingeconomics.com | Office for
Budget Responsibility, UK) 74
Fig. 2 The economic cycle 80
Fig. 3 US annualised changes in GDP (Source National Bureau
of Economic Research) 81
Fig. 4 Hierarchy of needs (Maslow) 89
Fig. 5 Global oil and gas EROI (Source Gagnon et al.) 94
Fig. 6 Productivity GDP per capita (Source Bawerk.net) 95

Valuing Ecosystems
Fig. 1 Value of GBP vs. USD (Source Federal Reserve Bank
of St. Louis) 99
Fig. 2 US Dollar purchasing power change over time (Source US
Bureau of Labour Statistics) 99
Fig. 3 US credit market debt (Source Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve) 100
Fig. 4 Research effort in taxonomic groups (Source Troudet et al.) 101
Fig. 5 US climate related research spending (Source US Office of
Management and Budget and Congressional Research Service) 102
Fig. 6 UK distribution of Great Crested Newt (Source JNCC) 119
Fig. 7 Commodity based model of Ecosystem Services 124
 List of Tables

Introduction
Table 1 Predicted Global Species Diversity 5
Table 2 Causes of GDP growth 8

Basics
Table 1 Austrian and mainstream economic worldviews 64

Parallels and Function

Table 1 Social grades 90

ix
 Introduction

The Importance of Knowledge

There can be little doubt that the collective advancement of knowledge
and understanding is a key driving force in the development of modern
civilisations. Major advancements in agricultural, industrial, scientific
and technological knowledge have been the main hallmarks of advanced
civilisations throughout history.
In a perfect world, all of the foundations of civilisations would be
logical and rational. Development would be based upon the solid foun-
dation of accurate, verifiable and objective truth. It is, however, inher-
ent in the development of greater knowledge that certain facts can be
interpreted in a variety of ways to provide a particular world view. It is
only by the addition of further knowledge that this view can be either
strengthened, modified or superseded by a new set of ideas. For exam-
ple, it has long been known that growing the same crop on an area of
land for many years leads to a gradual decline in yield. The concept
of leaving an area of land fallow in order for it to recover its fertility
has been common practice since biblical times. The precise reasons for
this practice in terms of nutrient cycles and the ongoing accumulation
© The Author(s) 2019 1
S. Muddiman, Ecosystem Services,
Palgrave Studies in Natural Resource Management,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-13819-6_1
2    
S. Muddiman

of pests over time were not understood fully by ancient farming

­communities. In this case, the accumulation of subsequent knowledge
has not only served to strengthen the rationale for leaving land fallow,
but also led to the development of crop rotation systems, which further
enhanced both yields and agricultural sustainability.
So, in practical terms, there is no such thing as the perfect system,
we are always constrained by the limits of our knowledge and also by
the models we use to order and rationalise the facts we have to hand at
any given point in time. Even today, there are many grey areas where
‘truth’ can be considered to be a matter of faith, opinion or pragma-
tism. For example, the concept of democracy as a means of government
is generally seen as the only way in which a fair and free society can
be established, but the truth of it is rule by majority opinion is often
considered to be the ‘least worst’ of the available systems. As Winston
Churchill noted in 1947 ‘it has been said that democracy is the worst
form of Government except for all those other forms that have been
tried from time to time.…’. It is possible that the future will offer alter-
native approaches to the operation of governance which will improve
upon the existing system. Democracy, like everything else, is a work in
progress.
This book is an investigation into two particular ‘works in progress’:
how we view, value and assess the natural environment; and how indi-
viduals, communities and nations interact with each other in terms of
exchange of resources, products and skills. These elements both come
together in the concept of Ecosystem Services which is an attempt to
incorporate the natural environment into the sphere of human com-
mercial activity. This idea is relatively recent in origin, and has grown
out of the increasing awareness and concern about the potential con-
flicts between the growth of modern civilization and its effects on the
elements of the natural environment upon which humanity depends.
It is borne out of a fear that as we grow and develop as a species we
run the risk of actually severing those vital lifelines which sustain us.
As a result, the concept of Ecosystem Services offers the potential to
link environmental degradation and loss, matters which are becoming
increasingly prominent, with the sphere of economics and develop-
ment. This linkage is achieved by adopting an anthropocentric view of
 Introduction    
3

the natural environment. It defines those services which are obtained

from the natural operation of ecosystems (i.e. without the need for
human labour or other resource input) and are of utility to humanity, as
Ecosystem Services.
As a multidisciplinary concept, Ecosystem Services draws from
both the current state of knowledge of ecology and economics and
adopts the ‘received wisdom’ from both in terms of their respective
mechanisms and modes of operation. In this way, the current frame-
work of Ecosystem Services is based upon our understanding of
ecology and economics and the models developed from the knowl-
edge we hold at the present time. As such, it is important to gain an
understanding of the extent of this knowledge and how close to a
comprehensive framework each of these disciplines currently encom-
passes when discussing their role and validity in the derivative ideas of
Ecosystem Services.
The truth is that both disciplines (ecology and economics) suffer
from an acute lack of available data upon which to work from, so it is
perfectly possible that the ecological and economic models which are
currently being used as the basis for the development and implemen-
tation of Ecosystem Services practice may be erroneous to a greater or
lesser degree.
Because of the knowledge deficit which, in many respects underlies
this narrative, this is a book which explores the unknown. The following
statement by US Secretary of Defence, Donald Rumsfeld is particularly
pertinent in this respect:

as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there
are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns
– the ones we don’t know we don’t know.

Leaving aside the ‘unknown unknowns’ for the time being, there is suf-
ficient scope within the ‘known unknown’ category to offer a plausible
case for reflection upon the possible implications of the way in which
Ecosystem Services are being used to guide policy, and the way in which
they have become embedded in the prevailing economic status quo.
4    
S. Muddiman

In order to illustrate the knowledge deficit encountered when bring-

ing together ecology and economics I will take two concepts, one from
each discipline, which are frequently used as metrics in determin-
ing environmental and economic policy, respectively, and dig a little
deeper into how much (or little) we can expect to understand by their
application.

Biodiversity
The term Biodiversity, has been employed by ecologists and other envi-
ronmental scientists to describe the variety of life encountered in the
natural world. It is also probably the most elusive term to pin down
in respect of a practical meaning. The most common definition is that
used in the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity:

the variability among living organisms from all sources, including, inter
alia, terrestrial, marine and other aquatic ecosystems and the ecological
complexes of which they are part: this includes diversity within species,
between species and of ecosystems.

Of course, in the provision of such a definition, the casual reader or pol-

icy maker would assume that we have some grasp on the amount of var-
iability present in the natural world, certainly to the extent that it was
possible to realistically commit to its protection. This is of particular rel-
evance when the Convention requires signatories to prepare a ‘National
biodiversity Strategy’. In developing such a ‘strategy’ it would be realistic
to assume that it would involve some mechanism to take account of ‘the
variability among living organisms from all sources’ as encompassed in
the above definition of Biodiversity. Unfortunately, this is far from the
reality of the situation. We are in large part ignorant of the degree of
variability present.
In ecology, the species is the basic unit from which other concepts
such as habitats, communities and assemblages derive. They are all fun-
damentally composed of populations of different species. On that basis,
it would be reasonable to assume that there was a requirement to at least
 Introduction    
5

have an approximate idea of the number of species in existence on the

planet and how they are distributed amongst the various described hab-
itats, communities, etc. This is of particular importance when we speak
of conserving or enhancing biodiversity. Such actions must surely be
taking account of those species which actually comprise the corpus of
‘biodiversity’ which is being conserved?
The truth is that we have managed to describe somewhere in the
region of 1.6 million species to date [1], but estimates of how many
species exist varies widely. One of the most statistically valid analyses
comes from a study carried out in 2011 [2]. This research determined
the presence of statistical correlations between higher taxonomic lev-
els (Phylum, Class, Order, Family, Genus) and the number of species
occurring within each. The researchers quantified these relationships
enabling them to predict how many species there are likely to be. The
figure derived using this method was 8.7 (±1.3) million species on
earth and a further 2.2 (±0.18) million species in the oceans. The
following figure, derived from this study, shows the likely number of
organisms of selected groups, and the current state of knowledge in
terms of percentages (Table 1).
The level of ignorance of biodiversity is not evenly distributed around
the world. The majority of undescribed species are thought to occur at
lower latitudes or in the oceans. Due to this pattern, a location such
as the British Isles, with a long heritage of biological recording, a rela-
tively depauperate fauna and flora and a high population density would
be expected to be well known in terms of the biodiversity present.
However, developments in DNA analysis show that this confidence is
misplaced. One recent study on the slugs of Britain and Ireland, which

Table 1 Predicted Global Species Diversity

Earth Oceans
Group Described Predicted % known Described Predicted % known
Animals 953,434 7,770,000 12.3 171,082 2,150,000 8.0
Plants 215,664 298,000 72.4 8600 16,600 51.8
Fungi 43,271 611,000 7.1 1097 5320 20.6
Source From data in Mora et al. [2]
6    
S. Muddiman

are a well-studied fauna of economic importance [3] identified eight

previously undetected species (which constitutes 22% of the fauna).
This clearly illustrates the degree to which we are in the dark about the
numbers of species in the world.
With such a lack of knowledge within such a well-defined con-
cept as the ‘species’, the adoption of a definition of biodiversity which
includes ‘diversity within species’ leads to a mind-boggling level of igno-
rance. This is compounded when the rest of the definition is taken into
account, by including ‘ecosystem diversity’ one finds oneself charged
with the responsibility to maintain every unique combination of life.
This is clearly not the intention of the Convention, but by casting such
a broad net in respect of the definition of biodiversity in order to sat-
isfy every ecological concern it has meant that the implementation of
the Convention is so open to interpretation and pragmatic compromise
that almost anything can be considered acceptable.
When faced with the question ‘how much biodiversity is there on the
planet?’ the only honest answer that can be given is quite simply: We
have no idea.

Gross Domestic Product

In economics, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is defined as the
monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a
country in a specific time period. It is commonly used as an indicator of
the economic health and standard of living of a country. The concept
of GDP first came into use in 1937, developed by Russian economist
Simon Kuznets. It was presented in a report to the US Congress when it
was decided that there was a need to develop more meaningful national
accounting in response to the Great Depression.
Unlike the concept of biodiversity, GDP has a well-formed defini-
tion, and an established methodology for collecting the necessary data.
It also has the advantage of being expressed as a single numerical value.
The difficulty with GDP is the lack of knowledge regarding the mean-
ing and implications of this apparently concrete and definitive metric.
 Introduction    
7

Growth in GDP is considered to be a sign that an economy is doing

well. On the contrary, a shrinking GDP is considered to be a bad thing
(the formal definition of a ‘recession’ is a shrinking GDP in two consec-
utive quarters). In turn, the readings of GDP are used by Governments
to establish policies which are intended to promote growth (as measured
by an increase in GDP).
As can be seen in Fig. 1, GDP on a global scale has increased almost
exponentially since 1960. This is generally interpreted to mean that
the world’s economy has been constantly growing, with more goods
and services being produced and economic well-being improving
significantly.
Superficially, it appears that the measurement of GDP and policy
decisions are a perfectly straightforward relationship, economic policies
which enhance GDP are seen as fundamentally beneficial. This is how
GDP is presented in general, being used to publicise how well or other-
wise one’s national economy is doing. However, a more in-depth study
of the concept of GDP shows that it is far from a problem-free metric.

Fig. 1 Global GDP (Source World Bank national accounts data and OECD
national accounts data files)
8    
S. Muddiman

Table 2 Causes of GDP growth

Change Cause Implication
More production Production is increas- Lower unemployment
at the same prices ing to meet increased rate and higher
demand wages. This leads to
even higher demand.
Resulting in further
increases in GDP, along-
side increasing produc-
tion prices due to rising
labour costs (inflation)
Production is stable, but There has been an GDP rises, but prices also
prices have increased increase in the cost of rise due to rising mate-
production as a result rials costs (inflation)
of increases in the
prices of raw materials
or energy
More production There is both increased Increased demand and
at higher prices demand and shortage decreased supply leads
of supply to rapid price increases.
GDP and inflation both
increase at a rapid rate
Produced much more Overproduction, leading employment and
at lower prices to falls in prices of wages drop, reducing
excess goods demand, furthering
overproduction—
deflation
Produced less at much Prices increase due to GDP rises slowly, below
higher prices production costs, but the desired level, yet
demand is diminishing inflation persists and
due to high unemploy- unemployment remains
ment and inflation high due to low pro-
duction—‘stagflation’
Source Various sources

The growth of GDP indicates that one of five possible changes have
occurred within an economy. These are explained in Table 2.
As Table 2 shows, an increase in GDP isn’t always good news. It isn’t
a clear signal of prosperity and can come about in several disparate
ways. Interpretation of the figures is vital in order to determine how a
rising GDP has occurred. This in turn leads to policy decisions regard-
ing a range of economic activities. Central Banks may raise or lower
 Introduction    
9

interest rates, Governments may decide they can raise or lower taxes or
borrow money for additional spending.
As some of the underlying reasons for increase in GDP show, it is
clear that GDP is a measure of production which does not consider eco-
nomic well-being. Growth in GDP can be observed in situations where
unemployment is rising and prices are increasing. In no way, therefore,
can this measure be considered to indicate the prosperity of a nation
at the level of individuals. Rather it is something which can be used
to look at a more generalised situation, and also to compare how one
nation is doing in competition with others, in terms of the narrowly
defined concept of productivity.
There is an additional factor in GDP which is generally overlooked
by mainstream economics. That is the role of Central Banks, those insti-
tutions which are literally responsible for the manufacture of money. As
a rule, the more money created by the central bank and the banking
sector, the larger the monetary spending will be. This in turn means that
the rate of growth of what is considered the ‘real’ economy will closely
mirror rises in money supply. In fact, irrespective of how well an econ-
omy is doing, a Central Bank can stimulate the GDP figure by increas-
ing the money supply. Of course, this is an illusory stimulus, as inflation
is also stimulated by this action. It can be considered more of a recali-
bration for accounting purposes rather than an actual stimulus which
benefits the population.
One significant element of a nation’s economic life which is not
reflected in the GDP figure is the amount of work carried out on one’s
own behalf. The degree to which tasks are carried out independently
(such as cooking at home rather than using restaurants, or caring for
children within a family rather than paying for childcare) do not
count towards a nations GDP, even though the work has been carried
out. The lack of a financial transaction makes this labour ‘invisible’. In
this way, the GDP framework has the unfortunate unintended conse-
quence of giving the impression that it is not the activities of individ-
uals that produce goods and services, but something else outside these
activities called the ‘economy’. However, in reality at no stage does this
abstract ‘economy’ exist independently of the activities of individuals.
10    
S. Muddiman

Paradoxically, undertaking work on one’s own behalf can be seen as

undermining the nation’s economic success, as reflected in GDP figures.
The use of GDP as a widespread index does not consider the environ-
mental costs associated with increased productivity. As such, it ignores
environmental degradation through landtake, the accommodation of
waste products and pollution. All of which have the effect of not only
affecting the environment but the associated quality of life of the popu-
lation who are exposed to such degradation.
In fact, some negative environmental effects such as discrete pollu-
tion incidents, can actually have a positive impact on a nations GDP
as the costs of clean-up and other activities involve commercial transac-
tions which are reflected in GDP calculations. For example, the increase
in the GDP of Japan in 2011–2013 is correlated with the tsunami and
subsequent breach of the Fukushima Nuclear Reactor, which took place
in October 2011 (Fig. 2).
In the classic textbook, ‘Economics’ [4] GDP is considered to be
analogous a satellite in space that can survey the weather across an
entire continent. GDP enables policymakers to judge whether the

Fig. 2 Japan GDP (Source World Bank national accounts data and OECD
national accounts data files)
 Introduction    
11

economy is contracting or expanding and if a threat such as a recession

or inflation looms on the horizon. It is interesting to note that, despite
our best efforts, mankind is not able to control the weather. Whether
intended or not, this analogy raises the question as to the ability of gov-
ernments and central banks to actually be able to control the economy,
or if GDP is as intransigent to policy as the weather.

What Do We Know?
From the brief descriptions, we can conclude that the terms
‘biodiversity’ and ‘GDP’ have, in their respective disciplines, an over­
arching meaning from which policy decisions can be (and are) drawn
at a number of levels. Both are used as a buzzword for the layman, high
biodiversity and increasing GDP are seen as positive factors. Such state-
ments remain unquestioned at a critical level, even by many professional
commentators.
In the case of the term biodiversity, the accepted meaning is not
­supported by the hard data required to give it substance, it is a coverall
for inadequate information enabling statements of apparent authority to
be made in the absence of knowledge. In the case of GDP, the mean-
ing has been stretched to cover implied factors which it doesn’t meas-
ure, and it acts as a driver of policy without taking into account all of
the implications of enacting such policies, it is too narrowly focused to
enable it to do what it claims, so that authoritative statements have the
potential for significant unintended consequences.
Both terms have one feature in common, they present an image of
certainty whilst actually representing somewhat abstract concepts.
These are sufficiently convincing to be considered as factual data, which
mould attitudes and public perceptions of policy decisions.
These examples return us to the question of how much knowledge we
actually have in respect of the truth of the environmental or economic
sphere? There is a huge underestimate of the magnitude of the unknown
in relation to both topics. Policies, plans and processes are regularly
formulated which superficially appear to take into account the cur-
rent ignorance of certain issues. However, when the magnitude of the
12    
S. Muddiman

knowledge gap is grossly underestimated, and the two topics coincide in

a way which has major consequences, the capacity for error and misun-
derstanding is compounded, and the reconciliation process becomes a
fudge of epic proportions.
It is often said that nature abhors a vacuum, that any available gap
will be filled. I would assert that, in a similar fashion, the human mind
also has a tendency to ‘fill in the gaps’ with regard to our knowledge and
understanding of any observable phenomenon. It is a basic human need
to be able to create an intellectual narrative which provides an expla-
nation of the world around us, and the events which occur within it.
Although such narratives may often be fanciful (myths and legends are
prime examples of filling in the gaps in knowledge of a civilization) and
are usually based upon a less than complete understanding of any given
situation, the need for an explanation generally overrides the grey areas
where uncertainty and ignorance predominate.
Alternative views of reality arise when there are spaces in knowledge
and understanding to allow more than one interpretation of the existing
evidence to be made. Some interpretations may be purely speculative,
whilst others may be carefully constructed using detailed studies of the
minutiae of the evidence available.
For example, many Victorian entomologists were great taxonomists
and made observations which remain valid to this day. Many believed
that these details were evidence of the omnipotence of a divine creator,
whereas the data collected is equally as valid in support of the contrary
view of Darwinian evolution. The facts and data collected are real and
valid, but could be used to support either of two possible explanations
for their existence as an observable phenomenon.
Similarly, economic data can be interpreted in many different ways,
in fact there is a whole industry based upon making different interpre-
tations of the same economic information, these viewpoints are sold to
investors with the hope they will be able to use the latest interpretation
of the data to take advantage through market speculation. More gener-
ally, economic data can represent the operation of a completely different
system, whilst still broadly conforming to the view of the mainstream.
Mankind has a strong affinity with the identification of patterns,
either spatially or through concepts such as cause and effect. Once a
 Introduction    
13

Fig. 3 Duck or rabbit? (Source Jastrow [5])

pattern is identified it becomes very difficult to look at it from a differ-

ent perspective. At a basic visual level, this can be seen in Fig. 3. Is the
image a duck or a rabbit?
In more complex theoretically based studies, such as both ecology
and economics, this perceptual bias (once described to me by a very
skilled botanist as ‘the eye of faith’ when I was struggling to actually see
what was described as glandular hairs on the stem of a rather sad and
wilted plant specimen) remains the case, even if the perceived pattern
of actions and results do not provide an optimal outcome and often
fly in the face of further information which does not ‘fit’ with the per-
ceived truth. Data tends to be either downplayed if contradictory to
the received wisdom, or the prevailing model is grudgingly modified to
increasing complexity in order to accommodate such supposedly anom-
alous evidence.
An example of the development of ideas which adapt to increasing
knowledge, leading ultimately to a complete paradigm change can be
seen in the world view from early civilisations where the earth was the
centre of the universe, to the later view of a heliocentric solar system
within one of many galaxies.
Placing the earth at the centre of the universe is, in the absence of
other data, completely understandable. From our perspective, we are on
an unmoving and stable body and simple observations show that the
14    
S. Muddiman

other visible features in the sky appear to move relative to our fixed
point of observation. Furthermore, the ‘received wisdom’ of scripture
in many ancient cultures states factually that the earth is at the centre
of the created universe. Early direct observations quickly revealed that,
although the majority of the stars moved in unison around the earth,
the sun and moon together with several other luminous bodies (plan-
ets) actually moved at different speeds. In order to account for the dif-
ferences in observed motion, these bodies were placed upon a series of
nesting crystalline spheres, each of which was rotating at a different
speed, with an outer sphere holding the fixed stars. This model (the
Aristotelian model) provided what appeared to be a rational and reason-
able model of the universe, based upon the available data (Fig. 4).

Fig. 4 Aristotle’s solar system

 Introduction    
15

Despite this general satisfaction, several anomalies remained.

Particularly prominent in this were the recorded observations of­
planets apparently stopping in their orbits and then moving backwards
(retrograde motion). These data required a rethink of the straightfor-
ward Aristotelian model. It resulted in a new system (the Ptolemaic
model) which required the invention of hypothetical points of rotation
around which each planet circled (epicyclic movement), as it contin-
ued its ongoing movement around the earth (which was now rotating
around the physical centre of the universe rather than being the static
point itself ). This complexity was added to respond to the observed
data, but was still not completely accurate. There appeared to be a
stubborn refusal to allow for ideas which did not place the earth at the
centre (Fig. 5).
It was not until the middle of the sixteenth century, following
more than 1000 years of the Ptolemaic model dominating how the
earth’s place in the solar system was viewed, that a heliocentric model

Fig. 5 Ptolemy’s solar system

16    
S. Muddiman

Fig. 6 Copernicus’s solar system

was proposed by Copernicus. However, because it hypothesised circu-

lar orbits of bodies around the sun it did not offer a greater match to
observed data than the Ptolemaic system. Both systems were widely
held to be the correct model (Fig. 6).
The main ‘logical’ argument for a geocentric system, other than
received wisdom and the word of scripture, was that the constellations
did not alter shape or size as they rotated around the Earth. This was
seen as the key fact for geocentric models, based upon an assumption
that the stars are relatively close to the earth, and in a spherical shell.
In reality, the assumption made is erroneous, the stars are much, much
further away than could be imagined, and they do demonstrate relative
movement, although this wasn’t observable until instruments of suffi-
cient accuracy were developed in the nineteenth century.
Once a heliocentric system had begun to establish itself in the group
psyche, evidence began to be uncovered that supported this model.
Much of this came from improvements in optical instruments which
 Introduction    
17

allowed more accurate observations to be made. Galileo recorded that

Jupiter had moons which orbited it, thus undermining the idea that
everything revolved around the earth. He also observed that Venus
demonstrates phases, proving that it, at least, revolves around the Sun.
Johannes Kepler finally presented a system with the sun at the centre
of the solar system and planets following elliptical (rather than ­circular)
orbits which allowed him to successfully make predictions regarding
observable phenomena. This finally established a heliocentric model as
the ‘mainstream’.
Through reflection on this example, the following insights can be
drawn regarding how the human mind deals with an incomplete data
set:

• Received wisdom can have a strong reinforcing effect upon a model.

In this case, the statements of scripture were considered to be
inviolable.
• The simplest model is that which is normally adopted first. Basic
observation and instinct would place the earth as the unmoving cen-
tre, with other bodies rotating around it.
• Once adopted there is a tendency to increase the complexity of the
original model to accommodate new information, rather than reject
it and reconsider first principles. Seen in the development of the
Ptolemaic system.
• Assumptions made at an early stage where there is a lack of data can
become ‘facts’ in later iterations of a model, hence reinforcing its
basis. The arguments regarding the lack of movement in the constel-
lations, based upon the false assumption of their proximity to earth,
illustrate this point.

By having such an inbuilt inertia and tendency to remain averse to

truly new ideas, many significant advances in thought and ­technology
have been delayed or suspended from widespread adoption due to this
phenomenon. It is only when the accepted view of how the system
works is in direct and overwhelming opposition to the evidence that a
new paradigm is likely to be adopted.
18    
S. Muddiman

The way in which the human mind deals with incomplete data, as
described above, can be used to test how humanity has come to terms
with unknowns and uncertainty in many different areas, including our
knowledge of the environment and the mechanisms of economics. In this
way, we now have some form of benchmark for a critical analysis of the
current state of play. We can look at alternatives with a more open mind,
as long as we are aware that the field is wide open and the ‘mainstream
view’ is by no means in a position of certainty with regard to either the
quantity or quality of, what appears to be, supporting information.
Of course, there is one major distinction to be made in ­comparing
man’s view of how the universe works with the natural world and
the conceptual view of trade and economics. The way the universe is
established has little effect upon our day to day lives, the data presents
itself, but there is nothing that man can (yet) do to alter the seasons,
the phases of the moon or our distance from other celestial bodies.
When it comes to ecology, things are very different, man can, and
does, frequently affect the way ecological systems operate, and if the
‘model’ he is adhering to is erroneous, then the consequences can be
highly damaging, not only to the environment, but also to the aim of
the intervention. For example, the ongoing drive to increase food pro-
duction in Africa includes the promotion of agricultural mechanisation.
However, there is potential for this to lead to a competitive advantage
for those with larger landholdings, which would then acquire smaller,
less efficient farms. This results in a loss of biodiversity, greater envi-
ronmental stress on soils, water resources, etc., and an increase in rural
unemployment, thereby increasing poverty.
When it comes to pure economics, management of the economy is
seen by the ordinary citizen as ‘the way it is’. There is a belief that the
economy is a well-understood machine and the only differences are in
how this should be operated. In fact ‘the economy’ is a result of prede-
termined interventions in financial and monetary systems based upon
a model formulated as much by ideology as empirical data. In other
words, the economy is viewed for some reason as more akin to a mech-
anistic, immutable and empirically well understood solar system rather
than a poorly understood experimental test bed, which is closer to the
reality of the situation.
 Introduction    
19

Mistaken decisions or misdirected policy which have been brought

into action as a result of errors in the models of the environment and
economic theory used to formulate decisions can have a large impact on
everyday life, with significant risks of damaging both the environment
and quality of life. The debate surrounding the place of the earth in
the solar system pales into insignificance when compared to the poten-
tial real-world consequences of a mistaken environmental or economic
world view. Due to this, it is even more critical that we have the fullest
available knowledge of these subjects. Once it is realised that decisions
are based on a best guess approach, it is certainly of benefit to keep an
open mind about whether or not existing received wisdom is, in fact,
true.
Highly detailed studies, which lead to the development of complex
models, may, superficially, appear to offer the best way of providing the
most effective decision-making tools. However, there is a danger here
in making the assumption that a model derived from a highly detailed
study is the most generally applicable, as it may only be truly applica-
ble in one, highly specific set of circumstances. If it is then extrapolated
to apply to one or more alternative paradigms, the basis of the study
does not necessarily support its new application. Such transference of
studies are frequently described as modelling or innovative application
into new fields, but in many cases, it is merely the cut and paste use of
detailed situational research into an arena where its effect is unstudied
and untested.
There is a general view that it is better to do something, even if based
upon partial information or data with only passing relevance to the sit-
uation at hand, rather than do nothing. Although this represents a rea-
sonably good working definition of risk taking, it is worth bearing in
mind that under certain circumstances uninformed action may actually
serve to make the situation considerably more difficult, especially if it is
framed in a plausible narrative.
These errors are somewhat analogous to the procedure adopted in the
solving of a Sudoku puzzle. Initially, there are many possible numbers
which can be inserted into any given box without causing the puzzle to
fail. Finding the actual correct number is a more time consuming and
(some would say) tedious process of extrapolating each possibility until
20    
S. Muddiman

only one number can be correctly placed in any given box. Without
adopting a careful approach all seems well initially, number can be
placed in locations which appear to be correct (or at least not breaking
the puzzles rules) but eventually errors using this ‘scattergun’ approach
reach a point where suddenly the whole process seizes up and no num-
ber will fit without breaking the format of the puzzle. At that point to
try and retrace steps is a futile process, and it is far better to start again,
with a much more careful approach.
Although this can provide a useful lesson regarding the need to be
methodical for the individual completing the puzzle, the idea of the
‘scattergun’ approach to modelling either economics or ecosystems
(using the maxim ‘if it hasn’t failed yet then our decisions to date must
all be correct’) runs the risk of delivering either a total economic or eco-
logical reset, neither of which are as inconsequential as turning the page
in a book of puzzles.
The information used in the development of a model has two fun-
damental characteristics, quality and quantity. Both are significant ele-
ments when trying to construct a model which is applicable to a range
of situations.
When considering the quality of information it is important to con-
sider both the circumstances surrounding the collection of data (in
terms of, for example, sample population demographics or habitat var-
iability) and also the likely end use of a model. For example, a model
of agricultural patterns and economics based upon a lowland system in
western Europe will become increasingly inaccurate as the type of agri-
cultural practices and prevailing economic system varies in other regions
throughout the world. Any failings in the quality of data collection can
even cause a model to be highly inaccurate within the precise conditions
it was formulated within.
Quantity of data also has a great deal of influence on how a given set
of circumstances is interpreted. With small amounts of data, a greater
number of possible underlying mechanisms to explain the observed
results can be postulated. As the amount of information increases, it
becomes increasingly possible to identify the general principles under-
lying observed phenomena. There is, however, an important caveat
to this as an ongoing process. Any existing hypothesis must be freely
Other documents randomly have
different content
 [Sits in the window recess. Cis, joining her, puts
his arm round her waist.

Agatha Posket.
No, certainly not. [To herself, watching them.] If I could only
persuade Æneas to dismiss this protégée of his, and to engage a
music-master, it would ease my conscience a little. If this girl knew
the truth, how indignant she would be! And then there is the
injustice to the boy himself, and to my husband’s friends who are
always petting and fondling and caressing what they call “a fine little
man of fourteen!” Fourteen! Oh, what an idiot I have been to
conceal my child’s real age! [Looking at the clock.] Charlotte is late;
I wish she would come. It will be a relief to worry her with my
troubles.

Mr. Posket.
[Talking outside.] We smoke all over the house, Bullamy, all over
the house.

Agatha Posket.
I will speak to Æneas about this little girl, at any rate.

Enter Mr. Posket, a mild gentleman of about fifty, smoking a

cigarette, followed by Mr. Bullamy, a fat, red-faced man with a
bronchial cough and general huskiness.

Mr. Posket.
Smoke anywhere, Bullamy—smoke anywhere.

Mr. Bullamy.
Not with my bronchitis, thank ye.

Mr. Posket.
[Beaming at Agatha Posket.] Ah, my darling!
 Mr. Bullamy.
[Producing a small box from his waistcoat pocket.] All I take after
dinner is a jujube—sometimes two. [Offering the box.] May I tempt
Mrs. Posket?

Agatha Posket.
No, thank you. [Treading on one of the nuts which have been
scattered over the room.] How provoking—who brings nuts into the
drawing-room?

Mr. Posket.
Miss Tomlinson still here? [To Beatie.] Don’t go, don’t go. Glad to
see Cis so fond of his music. Your sister Charlotte is behind her time,
my darling.

Agatha Posket.
Her train is delayed, I suppose.

Mr. Posket.
You must stay and see my sister-in-law, Bullamy.

Mr. Bullamy.
Pleasure—pleasure!

Mr. Posket.
I have never met her yet, we will share first impressions. In the
interim, will Miss Tomlinson delight us with a little music?

Mr. Bullamy.
[Bustling up to the piano.] If this young lady is going to sing she
might like one of my jujubes.
[Beatie sits at the piano with Cis and Mr. Bullamy
on each side of her. Mr. Posket treads on a nut
as he walks over to his wife.
 Mr. Posket.
Dear me—how come nuts into the drawing-room? [To Agatha.] Of
what is my darling thinking so deeply? [Treads on another nut.]
Another! My pet, there are nuts on the drawing-room carpet!

Agatha Posket.
Yes, I want to speak to you, Æneas.

Mr. Posket.
About the nuts?

Agatha Posket.
No—about Miss Tomlinson—your little protégée.

Mr. Posket.
Ah, nice little thing.

Agatha Posket.
Very. But not old enough to exert any decided influence over the
boy’s musical future. Why not engage a master?

Mr. Posket.
What, for a mere child?

Agatha Posket.
A mere child—oh!

Mr. Posket.
A boy of fourteen!

Agatha Posket.
[To herself.] Fourteen!

Mr. Posket.
A boy of fourteen, not yet out of Czerny’s exercises.
 Agatha Posket.
[To herself.] If we were alone now, I might have the desperation
to tell him all!

Mr. Posket.
Besides, my darling, you know the interest I take in Miss
Tomlinson; she is one of the brightest little spots on my hobby-
horse. Like all our servants, like everybody in my employ, she has
been brought to my notice through the unhappy medium of the
Police Court over which it is my destiny to preside. Our servant,
Wyke, a man with a beautiful nature, is the son of a person I
committed for trial for marrying three wives. To this day, Wyke is
ignorant as to which of those three wives he is the son of! Cook was
once a notorious dipsomaniac, and has even now not entirely freed
herself from early influences. Popham is the unclaimed charge of a
convicted baby-farmer. Even our milkman came before me as a man
who had refused to submit specimens to the analytic inspector. And
this poor child, what is she?

Agatha Posket.
Yes, I know.

Mr. Posket.
The daughter of a superannuated General, who abstracted four
silk umbrellas from the Army and Navy Stores—and on a fine day
too!
[Beatie ceases playing.

Mr. Bullamy.
Very good—very good!

Mr. Posket.
Thank you—thank you!
 Mr. Bullamy.
[To Mr. Posket, coughing and laughing and popping a jujube into
his mouth.] My dear Posket, I really must congratulate you on that
boy of yours—your stepson. A most wonderful lad. So confoundedly
advanced too.

Mr. Posket.
Yes, isn’t he? Eh!

Mr. Bullamy.
[Confidentially.] While the piano was going on just now, he told
me one of the most humorous stories I’ve ever heard. [Laughing
heartily and panting, then taking another jujube.] Ha, ha, bless me,
I don’t know when I have taken so many jujubes!

Mr. Posket.
My dear Bullamy, my entire marriage is the greatest possible
success. A little romantic, too. [Pointing to Agatha Posket.] Beautiful
woman!

Mr. Bullamy.
Very, very. I never committed a more stylish, elegant creature.

Mr. Posket.
Thank you, Bullamy—we met abroad, at Spa, when I was on my
holiday.
Wyke enters with tea-tray, which he hands round.

Mr. Bullamy.
I shall go there next year.

Mr. Posket.
She lost her first husband about twelve months ago in India. He
was an army contractor.
 Beatie.
[To Cis at the piano.] I must go now—there’s no excuse for
staying any longer.

Cis.
[To her disconsolately.] What the deuce shall I do?

Mr. Posket.
[Pouring out milk.] Dear me, this milk seems very poor. When he
died, she came to England, placed her boy at a school in Brighton,
and then moved about quietly from place to place, drinking——
[Sips tea.

Mr. Bullamy.
Drinking?

Mr. Posket.
The waters—she’s a little dyspeptic. [Wyke goes out.] We
encountered each other at the Tours des Fontaines—by accident I
trod upon her dress——

Beatie.
Good-night, Cis dear.

Cis.
Oh!

Mr. Posket.
[Continuing to Mr. Bullamy.] I apologised. We talked about the
weather, we drank out of the same glass, discovered that we both
suffered from the same ailment, and the result is complete
happiness.
[He bends over Agatha Posket gallantly.
 Agatha Posket.
Æneas!
[He kisses her, then Cis kisses Beatie, loudly; Mr.
Posket and Mr. Bullamy both listen puzzled.

Mr. Posket.
Echo?

Mr. Bullamy.
Suppose so!
[He kisses the back of his hand experimentally;
Beatie kisses Cis.

Mr. Bullamy.
Yes.

Mr. Posket.
Curious. [To Mr. Bullamy.] Romantic story, isn’t it?

Beatie.
Good-night, Mrs. Posket! I shall be here early to-morrow
morning.

Agatha Posket.
I am afraid you are neglecting your other pupils.

Beatie.
Oh, they’re not so interesting as Cis—[correcting herself] Master
Farringdon. Good-night.

Agatha Posket.
Good-night, dear.
[Beatie goes out quietly; Agatha Posket joins Cis.
 Mr. Posket.
[To Mr. Bullamy.] We were married abroad without consulting
friends or relations on either side. That’s how it is I have never seen
my sister-in-law, Miss Verrinder, who is coming from Shropshire to
stay with us—she ought to——

Wyke enters.

Wyke.
Miss Verrinder has come, ma’am.

Mr. Posket.
Here she is.

Agatha Posket.
Charlotte?
Charlotte, a fine handsome girl, enters, followed by Popham
with hand luggage.

Agatha Posket.
[Kissing her.] My dear Charley.
[Wyke goes out.

Charlotte.
Aggy darling, aren’t I late! There’s a fog on the line—you could
cut it with a knife. [Seeing Cis.] Is that your boy?

Agatha Posket.
Yes.

Charlotte.
Good gracious! What is he doing in an Eton jacket at his age?
 Agatha Posket.
[Softly to Charlotte.] Hush! don’t say a word about my boy’s age
yet awhile.

Charlotte.
Oh!

Agatha Posket.
[About to introduce Mr. Posket.] There is my husband.

Charlotte.
[Mistaking Mr. Bullamy for him.] Oh! how could she! [To Mr.
Bullamy, turning her cheek to him.] I congratulate you—I suppose
you ought to kiss me.

Agatha Posket.
No, no!

Mr. Posket.
Welcome to my house, Miss Verrinder.

Charlotte.
Oh, I beg your pardon. How do you do?

Mr. Bullamy.
[To himself.] Mrs. Posket’s an interfering woman.

Mr. Posket.
[Pointing to Mr. Bullamy.] Mr. Bullamy.
[Mr. Bullamy, aggrieved, bows stiffly.

Agatha Posket.
[To Charlotte.] Come upstairs, dear; will you have some tea?
 Charlotte.
No thank you, pet, but I should like a glass of soda water.

Agatha Posket.
Soda water!

Charlotte.
Well dear, you can put what you like at the bottom of it.
[Agatha Posket and Charlotte go out, Popham
following.

Popham.
[To Cis.] Give me back my “Bow Bells,” when you have read it,
you imp.
[Goes out.

Cis.
By Jove, Guv, isn’t Aunt Charlotte a stunner?

Mr. Posket.
Seems a charming woman.

Mr. Bullamy.
Posket’s got the wrong one! That comes of marrying without first
seeing the lady’s relations.

Cis.
Come along, Guv—let’s have a gamble—Mr. Bullamy will join us.
[Opens the card-table, arranges chairs and
candles.

Mr. Bullamy.
A gamble?
 Mr. Posket.
Yes—the boy has taught me a new game called “Fireworks;” his
mother isn’t aware that we play for money, of course, but we do.

Mr. Bullamy.
Ha, ha, ha! Who wins?

Mr. Posket.
He does now—but he says I shall win when I know the game
better.

Mr. Bullamy.
What a boy he is!

Mr. Posket.
Isn’t he a wonderful lad? And only fourteen, too. I’ll tell you
something else—perhaps you had better not mention it to his
mother.

Mr. Bullamy.
No, no, certainly not.

Mr. Posket.
He’s invested a little money for me.

Mr. Bullamy.
What in?

Mr. Posket.
Not in—on—on Sillikin for the Lincolnshire Handicap. Sillikin to
win and Butterscotch one, two, three.

Mr. Bullamy.
Good Lord!
 Mr. Posket.
Yes, the dear boy said, “Guv, it isn’t fair you should give me all
the tips, I’ll give you some,”—and he did—he gave me Sillikin and
Butterscotch. He’ll manage it for you, if you like. “Plank it down,” he
calls it.

Mr. Bullamy.
[Chuckling and choking.] Ha! ha! Ho! ho! [Taking a jujube.] This
boy will ruin me in jujubes.

Cis.
All ready! Look sharp! Guv, lend me a sov to start with?

Mr. Posket.
A sov to start with? [They sit at the table. Agatha Posket and
Charlotte come into the room.] We didn’t think you would return so
soon, my darling.

Agatha Posket.
Go on amusing yourselves, I insist, only don’t teach my Cis to
play cards.

Mr. Bullamy.
Ho! ho!

Mr. Posket.
[To Mr. Bullamy.] Hush! Hush!

Agatha Posket.
[To Charlotte.] I’m glad of this—we can tell each other our
miseries undisturbed. Will you begin?

Charlotte.
Well, at last I am engaged to Captain Horace Vale.
 Agatha Posket.
Oh! Charley, I’m so glad!

Charlotte.
Yes—so is he—he says. He proposed to me at the Hunt Ball—in
the passage—Tuesday week.

Agatha Posket.
What did he say?

Charlotte.
He said, “By Jove, I love you awfully.”

Agatha Posket.
Well—and what did you say?

Charlotte.
Oh, I said, “Well, if you’re going to be as eloquent as all that, by
Jove, I can’t stand out.” So we settled it, in the passage. He bars
flirting till after we’re married. That’s my misery. What’s yours, Aggy?

Agatha Posket.
Something awful!

Charlotte.
Cheer up, Aggy! What is it?

Agatha Posket.
Well, Charley, you know I lost my poor dear first husband at a
very delicate age.

Charlotte.
Well, you were five-and-thirty, dear.
 Agatha Posket.
Yes, that’s what I mean. Five-and-thirty is a very delicate age to
find yourself single. You’re neither one thing nor the other. You’re
not exactly a two-year-old, and you don’t care to pull a hansom.
However, I soon met Mr. Posket at Spa—bless him!

Charlotte.
And you nominated yourself for the Matrimonial Stakes. Mr.
Farringdon’s The Widow, by Bereavement, out of Mourning, ten
pounds extra.

Agatha Posket.
Yes, Charley, and in less than a month I went triumphantly over
the course. But, Charley dear, I didn’t carry the fair weight for age—
and that’s my trouble.

Charlotte.
Oh, dear!

Agatha Posket.
Undervaluing Æneas’ love, in a moment of, I hope, not
unjustifiable vanity, I took five years from my total, which made me
thirty-one on my wedding morning.

Charlotte.
Well, dear, many a misguided woman has done that before you.

Agatha Posket.
Yes, Charley, but don’t you see the consequences? It has thrown
everything out. As I am now thirty-one, instead of thirty-six as I
ought to be, it stands to reason that I couldn’t have been married
twenty years ago, which I was. So I have had to fib in proportion.

Charlotte.
I see—making your first marriage occur only fifteen years ago.
 Agatha Posket.
Exactly.

Charlotte.
Well then, dear, why worry yourself further?

Agatha Posket.
Why, dear, don’t you see? If I am only thirty-one now, my boy
couldn’t have been born nineteen years ago, and if he could, he
oughtn’t to have been, because, on my own showing, I wasn’t
married till four years later. Now you see the result!

Charlotte.
Which is, that that fine strapping young gentleman over there is
only fourteen.

Agatha Posket.
Precisely. Isn’t it awkward! and his moustache is becoming more
and more obvious every day.

Charlotte.
What does the boy himself believe?

Agatha Posket.
He believes his mother, of course, as a boy should. As a prudent
woman, I always kept him in ignorance of his age—in case of
necessity. But it is terribly hard on the poor child, because his aims,
instincts, and ambitions are all so horribly in advance of his
condition. His food, his books, his amusements are out of keeping
with his palate, his brain, and his disposition; and with all this
suffering—his wretched mother has the remorseful consciousness of
having shortened her offspring’s life.

Charlotte.
Oh, come, you haven’t quite done that.
 Agatha Posket.
Yes, I have—because, if he lives to be a hundred, he must be
buried at ninety-five.

Charlotte.
That’s true.

Agatha Posket.
Then, there’s another aspect. He’s a great favourite with all our
friends—women friends especially. Even his little music mistress and
the girl-servants hug and kiss him because he’s such an engaging
boy, and I can’t stop it. But it’s very awful to see these innocent
women fondling a young man of nineteen.

Charlotte.
The women don’t know it.

Agatha Posket.
But they’d like to know it. I mean they ought to know it! The
other day I found my poor boy sitting on Lady Jenkins’s lap, and in
the presence of Sir George. I have no right to compromise Lady
Jenkins in that way. And now, Charley, you see the whirlpool in
which I am struggling—if you can throw me a rope, pray do.

Charlotte.
What sort of a man is Mr. Posket, Aggy?

Agatha Posket.
The best creature in the world. He’s a practical philanthropist.

Charlotte.
Um—he’s a Police Magistrate, too, isn’t he?
 Agatha Posket.
Yes, but he pays out of his own pocket half the fines he inflicts.
That’s why he has had a reprimand from the Home Office for
inflicting such light penalties. All our servants have graduated at
Mulberry Street. Most of the pictures in the dining-room are genuine
Constables.

Charlotte.
Take my advice—tell him the whole story.

Agatha Posket.
I dare not!

Charlotte.
Why?

Agatha Posket.
I should have to take such a back seat for the rest of my married
life.
[The party at the card-table breaks up.

Mr. Bullamy.
[Grumpily.] No, thank you, not another minute. [To Mr. Posket.]
What is the use of talking about revenge, my dear Posket, when I
haven’t a penny piece left to play with?

Mr. Posket.
I’m in the same predicament! Cis will lend us some money, won’t
you, Cis?

Cis.
Rather!
 Mr. Bullamy.
No, thank ye, that boy is one too many for me. I’ve never met
such a child. Good-night, Mrs. Posket. [Treads on a nut.] Confound
the nuts!

Agatha Posket.
Going so early?

Cis.
[To Mr. Posket.] I hate a bad loser, don’t you Guv?

Agatha Posket.
Show Mr. Bullamy down stairs, Cis.

Mr. Bullamy.
Good-night, Posket. Oh! I haven’t a shilling left for my cabman.

Cis.
I’ll pay the cab.

Mr. Bullamy.
No, thank you! I’ll walk. [Opening jujube box.] Bah! Not even a
jujube left and on a foggy night, too! Ugh!
[Goes out.

Enter Wyke with four letters on salver.

Cis.
[To Wyke.] Any for me?

Wyke.
One, sir.

Cis.
[To himself.] From Achille Blond; lucky the mater didn’t see it.
 [Goes out.

[Wyke hands letters to Agatha Posket, who takes

two, then to Mr. Posket, who takes one.

Agatha Posket.
This is for you, Charley—already.
[Wyke goes out.

Charlotte.
Spare my blushes, dear—it’s from Horace, Captain Vale. The dear
wretch knew I was coming to you. Heigho! Will you excuse me?

Mr. Posket.
Certainly.

Agatha Posket.
Excuse me, please?

Charlotte.
Certainly, my dear.

Mr. Posket.
Certainly, my darling. Excuse me, won’t you?

Charlotte.
Oh, certainly.

Agatha Posket.
Certainly, Æneas.
[Simultaneously they all open their letters, and
lean back and read.
 Agatha Posket.
[Reading.] Lady Jenkins is not feeling very well.

Charlotte.
If Captain Horace Vale stood before me at this moment, I’d slap
his face!

Agatha Posket.
Charlotte!

Charlotte.
[Reading.] “Dear Miss Verrinder,—Your desperate flirtation with
Major Bristow at the Meet on Tuesday last, three days after our
engagement, has just come to my knowledge. Your letters and gifts,
including the gold-headed hair-pin given me at the Hunt Ball, shall
be returned to-morrow. By Jove, all is over! Horace Vale.” Oh, dear!

Agatha Posket.
Oh, Charley, I’m so sorry! However, you can deny it.

Charlotte.
[Weeping.] That’s the worst of it, I can’t.

Mr. Posket.
[To Agatha Posket.] My darling, you will be delighted. A note from
Colonel Lukyn.

Agatha Posket.
Lukyn—Lukyn? I seem to know the name.

Mr. Posket.
An old schoolfellow of mine who went to India many years ago.
He has just come home. I met him at the club last night and asked
him to name an evening to dine with us. He accepts for to-morrow.
 Agatha Posket.
Lukyn, Lukyn?

Mr. Posket.
Listen. [Reading.] “It will be especially delightful to me, as I
believe I am an old friend of your wife and of her first husband. You
may recall me to her recollection by reminding her that I am the
Captain Lukyn who stood sponsor to her boy when he was
christened at Baroda.”

Agatha Posket.
[Giving a loud scream.] Oh!

Mr. Posket.
My dear!

Agatha Posket.
I’ve twisted my foot.

Mr. Posket.
How do nuts come into the drawing-room?

Charlotte.
[Quietly to Agatha Posket.] Aggy?

Agatha Posket.
[To Charlotte.] The boy’s god-father.

Charlotte.
When was the child christened?

Agatha Posket.
A month after he was born. They always are.
 Mr. Posket.
[Reading the letter again.] This is very pleasant.

Agatha Posket.
[To Mr. Posket.] Let—let me see the letter, I—I may recognise the
handwriting.

Mr. Posket.
[Handing her the letter.] Certainly, my pet. [To himself.]
Awakened memories of Number One. That’s the worst of marrying a
widow; somebody is always proving her previous convictions.

Agatha Posket.
[To Charlotte.] “No. 19a, Cork Street!” Charley, put on your things
and come with me.

Charlotte.
Agatha, you’re mad!

Agatha Posket.
I’m going to shut this man’s mouth before he comes into this
house to-morrow.

Charlotte.
Wait till he comes.

Agatha Posket.
Yes, till he stalks in here with his “How d’ye do, Posket? Haven’t
seen your wife since the year ’66, by Gad, sir!” Not I! Æneas!

Mr. Posket.
My dear.
 Agatha Posket.
Lady Jenkins—Adelaide—is very ill; she can’t put her foot to the
ground with neuralgia.
[Taking the letter from her pocket, and giving it to
him.

Mr. Posket.
Bless me!

Agatha Posket.
We have known each other for six long years.

Mr. Posket.
Only six weeks, my love.

Agatha Posket.
Weeks are years in close friendship. My place is by her side.

Mr. Posket.
[Reading the letter.] “Slightly indisposed, caught trifling cold at
the Dog Show. Where do you buy your handkerchiefs?” There’s
nothing about neuralgia or putting her foot to the ground here, my
darling.

Agatha Posket.
No, but can’t you read between the lines, Æneas? That is the
letter of a woman who is not at all well.

Mr. Posket.
All right, my darling, if you are bent upon going I will accompany
you.

Agatha Posket.
Certainly not, Æneas—Charlotte insists on being my companion;
we can keep each other warm in a closed cab.
 Mr. Posket.
But can’t I make a third?

Agatha Posket.
Don’t be so forgetful, Æneas—don’t you know that in a four-
wheeled cab, the fewer knees there are the better.
[Agatha Posket and Charlotte go out.

Cis comes in hurriedly.

Cis.
What’s the matter, Guv?

Mr. Posket.
Your mother and Miss Verrinder are going out.

Cis.
Out of their minds? It’s a horrid night.

Mr. Posket.
Yes, but Lady Jenkins is ill.

Cis.
Oh! Is ma mentioned in the will?

Mr. Posket.
Good gracious, what a boy! No, Cis, your mother is merely going
to sit by Lady Jenkins’ bedside, to hold her hand, and to tell her
where one goes to—to buy pocket-handkerchiefs.

Cis.
By Jove! The mater can’t be home again till half-past twelve or
one o’clock.
 Mr. Posket.
Much later if Lady Jenkins’ condition is alarming.

Cis.
Hurray! [He takes the watch out of Mr. Posket’s pocket.] Just half-
past ten. Greenwich mean, eh, Guv?
[He puts the watch to his ear, pulling Mr. Posket
towards him by the chain.

Mr. Posket.
What an extraordinary lad!

Cis.
[Returning watch.] Thanks. They have to get from here to
Campden Hill and back again. I’ll tell Wyke to get them the worst
horse on the rank.

Mr. Posket.
My dear child!

Cis.
Three-quarters of an hour’s journey from here at least. Twice
three-quarters, one hour and a half. An hour with Lady Jenkins—
when women get together, you know, Guv, they do talk—that’s two
hours and a half. Good. Guv, will you come with me?

Mr. Posket.
Go with you! Where?

Cis.
Hotel des Princes, Meek Street. A sharp hansom does it in ten
minutes.
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