Colonizing Mars
Colonizing Mars
Colonizing Mars
No human being has set foot on an Mars itself, so that ships sent to Mars could
astronomical body other than Earth since Given enough time, return to Earth. This should be possible, he
1972. One can argue that there’s no pressing human extinction might suggests, given that the Martian atmosphere
need to do so, going back to the Moon — or is predominantly CO2, with water and ice
further, to Mars or some other planet — be a more or less certain present in the soil. Both methane (CH4) and
especially with actual people. Unmanned prospect — unless we oxygen (O2) can then be produced as a fuel
spacecraft can do an awful lot of useful source. In Musk’s vision, this would fuel a
science. It would be a waste of resources spread from the planet. fleet of spaceships that would in time come
to send people, and we have enough other to number as many as 1,000. Each ship
pressing problems. Right? NASA does species — rests on bringing the price of would carry about 100 people on a trip of
have plans for Mars, but envisions human getting a human to Mars to a reasonable 80 days, and would, of course, need to carry
astronauts going there only sometime in level so that many people who want to go an incredibly wide range of cargo to support
the 2030s. can also afford to go. Musk estimates this to everything from manufacturing and oxygen
However, there is another perspective. be about US$200,000 — roughly the median production to farming and entertainment.
Catastrophic events on Earth have value of a house in the US. It’s likely that Building up a sustainable population on
previously wiped out many long-lived lots of people would opt for the challenge, Mars — of, say, one million people —
species, and there’s a small but non-zero and there would be plenty of jobs on the would take many decades, possibly as long
chance that Earth could, in any given year, newly inhabited planet. Presumably, many as a century.
get obliterated — by an undetected asteroid other visitors would be sponsored. Is this Musk goes on to examine the kind of
or comet, or a nearby supernovae. Or human price achievable? engine technology that might be used, based
life might get erased from the planet by our This represents a price reduction of on the recent technological success of his
inaction in the face of the pressures we’re around four and a half orders of magnitude company SpaceX. This part of the story
putting on the biosphere, or by overaction from what it cost to put astronauts on seems quite believable, especially given
in the form of an out-of-control engineered the Moon. As Musk reasons — based on the impressive progress SpaceX has had
biological organism. Given enough time, discussions with technical experts — this over the past decade or so. It’s become the
human extinction might be a more or less is achievable if engineers pursue two largest private producer of rocket engines in
certain prospect — unless we spread from strategies. First, we’re going to need to the world, and produces the engine giving
the planet. From this perspective, efforts to make spacecraft and the boosters used to the highest ever thrust to weight ratio. It’s
spread our species to other astronomical get them to Mars fully reusable and capable also mastered technology to have rocket
objects seems rather more urgent. of multiple trips. That, he suggests, could boosters return to their launch sites and land
It’s this argument that lies behind provide a reduction of between two and two carefully back on the pad.
the efforts of Elon Musk, who recently and a half orders of magnitude. The final One big stumbling block — one Musk
announced plans for his company SpaceX two orders of magnitude would then come doesn’t mention in his essay — is radiation.
to work toward taking paying passengers from the development of an industrial scale Earth has a nice magnetosphere that largely
to Mars by 2022. His vision is hugely production of the right spacecraft fuel on protects us from the harsh solar wind and
ambitious, inspiring, and also admirably Mars itself. high-energy cosmic rays arriving from
practical. It’s motivated by the perception As Musk points out, reusability is outer space. Travelling through space to
that human technical capabilities don’t what makes many transport technologies Mars presents serious risks to astronauts;
advance automatically, but only if we decide affordable. A trip on a modern commercial this remains the primary risk as viewed by
to focus our scientific, engineering and aircraft would cost roughly US$500,000 per analysts at NASA. There appear to be few
industrial effort on a specific goal. That said, person if planes could only be used once, technical solutions to shield astronauts,
the project does face some imposing and but comes down to the order of US$100 due who may inevitably suffer serious
unsolved hurdles to reusability. The same applies to spacecraft radiation damage.
Why Mars? First, it’s not too far away, and for Mars, although the gain is limited Yes, of course — going to Mars en masse
far more hospitable than alternatives such somewhat by the fact that the Earth–Mars is risky, the method unproven and uncertain,
as Venus or Mercury. The Martian day is rendezvous only happens every 26 months, still awaiting invention. But historically,
24 hours and 40 minutes, and temperatures limiting how frequently a craft can be this is often how amazing scientific,
range from –140 °C to 30 °C, compared to used. Also important, he argues, will be technological or cultural accomplishments
Earth’s slightly warmer –88 °C to 58 °C. launching the spacecraft into orbit with fuel have come about. On occasion, as our
If we could warm Mars a little, it could tanks essentially empty, and refilling them capabilities advance, something that for so
be much like Earth, with a dense gaseous in orbit from a fleet of boosters that carry long seemed impossible suddenly becomes
atmosphere and liquid oceans. Plentiful fuel to space. This way the craft can have possible, given the right sustained effort.
CO2 in the atmosphere also means we could very large tanks and carry large payloads. Musk’s vision aims for just such a change. It
grow plants. There’s decent sunlight given Musk has discussed these and other details may all end in disappointment and failure.
that Mars is only 50% further from the Sun of his plans in a recent article (New Space But, even then, we’re sure to learn many
than Earth. 5, 46–61; 2017). things along the way. ❐
Musk’s path to getting lots of people to Another key would be extensive
Mars — and making humanity a multiplanet production of spacecraft propellant on MARK BUCHANAN