ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT REPORT
BUDI COUNTY, EASTERN EQUATORIA STATE, SOUTH SUDAN
December 2024
Compiled for
Community Development Support Services (CDSS)
by
Dr. Michael K Joz
International Consultant
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This comprehensive Environmental Vulnerability Assessment of Budi County, Eastern Equatoria State,
conducted between July and October 2024, reveals critical environmental changes that demand
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immediate intervention. The assessment combines rigorous scientific analysis with extensive
community consultations, examining environmental dynamics affecting 89,465 residents across six
payams: Kimotong, Loudo, Nagishot, Komiri, Napak, and Chukudum.
Our findings document significant environmental degradation across multiple indicators. Annual rainfall
has decreased dramatically from 892mm in 2019 to 670mm in October 2024, representing a 24.9%
reduction that severely impacts agricultural productivity and water security. This decline in precipitation
coincides with a marked reduction in forest cover from 31.2% to 25.8%, equivalent to approximately
149 square kilometers of lost woodland. Agricultural land has expanded from 45.3% to 48.5% of total
area, often into marginally suitable regions, increasing pressure on fragile ecosystems.
The assessment reveals concerning trends in water resources, with groundwater tables declining by
2.5 meters since 2019. This deterioration in water availability has particular implications for women and
children, who now spend an average of 4.2 hours daily collecting water during dry seasons, compared
to 2.5 hours in 2019. Furthermore, 63% of households report crop failures in recent seasons,
highlighting the interconnected nature of environmental challenges and food security.
Based on these findings, we recommend a three-tiered intervention approach requiring USD 750,000
for immediate actions. Priority interventions include soil conservation measures across 8,000 hectares
of critical erosion zones, rehabilitation of 25 water points, and establishment of community-based
environmental management systems. Implementation should begin by November 2024 to address
deteriorating conditions before they reach critical levels.
The assessment emphasizes that
while environmental challenges
are severe, there exists strong
community structures and
traditional knowledge systems
that can support successful
interventions. With swift
implementation of recommended
measures, Budi County can begin
reversing current degradation
trends and establish foundations
for sustainable resource
management.
1.0 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
Budi County represents a unique ecological and cultural landscape within Eastern Equatoria State,
South Sudan. Encompassing 2,758 square kilometers, this diverse territory stretches across six distinct
payams: Kimotong, Loudo, Nagishot, Komiri, Napak, and Chukudum. The region's remarkable
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topographical variation, with elevations ranging from 1,200 to 2,400 meters above sea level, creates a
complex mosaic of ecological zones that have sustained communities for generations.
The county's distinctive altitudinal gradient gives rise to multiple ecological niches, each supporting
different vegetation types and agricultural possibilities. In the highlands above 2,000 meters, dense
woodlands historically dominated the landscape, providing essential ecosystem services such as water
catchment and soil stabilization. The middle elevations, ranging from 1,500 to 2,000 meters, feature
mixed woodland-savanna ecosystems that have traditionally offered ideal conditions for agro-pastoral
activities. The lower elevations, between 1,200 and 1,500 meters, transition into more open savanna
landscapes particularly suited to seasonal grazing.
This varied landscape has shaped the evolution of sophisticated traditional land use systems among
the local communities. The cornerstone of these systems is the practice of seasonal migration, a
carefully coordinated movement of livestock between wet and dry season grazing areas. During the wet
season (typically April to October), herders traditionally utilize the lower elevation grasslands, allowing
higher elevation pastures to regenerate. As the dry season approaches, communities move their herds
to higher elevations where permanent water sources and reserve grazing areas provide crucial
resources during periods of scarcity.
Complementing these pastoral practices, smallholder agriculture has developed in areas particularly
suited to crop production. Farmers have traditionally employed indigenous knowledge to select
cultivation sites based on soil fertility, moisture retention, and accessibility. This agricultural system
typically operates on a seasonal basis, with primary planting occurring at the onset of the rainy season
and supplementary cultivation in suitable locations during the dry season where moisture permits.
The intricate relationship between topography, climate, and human activities has historically created a
resilient social-ecological system. Traditional governance structures have evolved to manage these
complex land use patterns, with community elders and local authorities playing crucial roles in
coordinating resource access and resolving potential conflicts between different land users. This
traditional system has historically demonstrated remarkable adaptability to environmental variations
while maintaining the ecological integrity of the landscape.
Understanding this background provides essential context for assessing current environmental
vulnerabilities and designing appropriate interventions. The historical patterns of land use and
traditional knowledge systems offer valuable insights for developing sustainable solutions that align with
local ecological conditions and social structures. This understanding becomes particularly crucial as the
region faces unprecedented environmental changes that challenge these long-established systems
2.0
ENVIRONMENTAL BASELINE ASSESSMENT
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Physical Environment and Climate Patterns
The physical environment of Budi County shows significant changes over the assessment period. Our
analysis reveals a complex interplay between soil conditions, climate patterns, and vegetation coverage
that directly impacts community livelihoods. Our soil analysis reveals concerning trends across all
ecological zones. The highland areas, traditionally the most productive agricultural regions, show
organic matter content of only 1.3%, significantly below the recommended 3% minimum for sustainable
agriculture. This degradation is particularly severe in the lowland zones, where organic matter has
declined to 0.9%. The reduced soil fertility directly correlates with declining crop yields and increased
food insecurity among farming households. Temperature patterns show a consistent warming trend
across all seasons. The comparison between 2019 and 2024 demonstrates an average increase of
1.7°C, with the most pronounced warming occurring during the dry season (January-March). These
higher temperatures accelerate soil moisture loss and increase plant stress, particularly during critical
growing periods.
The water resources analysis reveals a complex interaction between rainfall patterns, surface water
availability, and groundwater levels. Surface water availability has become increasingly seasonal, with
significant reductions during the dry season (January-March). Groundwater resources, while more
stable, show a concerning downward trend, with availability declining from 82% to 75% over the
assessment period.
3.0 VEGETATION AND
LAND USE CHANGES
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The transformation of Budi County's vegetation coverage represents one of the most visible indicators
of environmental change. Our
analysis combines satellite imagery
with ground surveys to provide a
comprehensive understanding of
these changes and their
implications for local communities.
The vegetation analysis reveals
concerning trends in both land
cover composition and biodiversity.
Woodland coverage has declined
steadily from 31.2% in 2019 to
25.8% in October 2024,
representing a loss of
approximately 149 square
kilometers of wooded area. This reduction primarily affects the indigenous Acacia and Combretum
woodlands that traditionally provided essential resources for local communities, including building
materials, fuelwood, and medicinal plants.
The transformation of natural vegetation shows a clear pattern: as woodland areas decrease, we
observe a corresponding increase in cropland, which has expanded from 35.8% to 39.8% of total land
area. This expansion often occurs in marginally suitable areas, leading to increased soil erosion and
reduced agricultural productivity. Most concerning is the growth in degraded land, which has increased
from 4.5% to 7.6%, indicating areas where vegetation loss has led to severe environmental
deterioration.
The impact of vegetation changes on local
livelihoods is substantial and multifaceted.
Communities now spend significantly more time
collecting essential resources. The time required
to gather fuelwood has increased from 3.2 to 5.8
hours per day, while access to building materials
now requires 4.5 hours compared to 2.8 hours in
2019. This increased time burden particularly
affects women and children, who are primarily
responsible for resource collection.
Household expenditure patterns reflect these
environmental changes. The proportion of
household income spent on fuelwood has increased from 15% to 25%, while food expenditure has
risen from 45% to 52% of total income. This shift reduces resources available for other essential needs
such as healthcare and education, creating a cycle of increasing vulnerability.
4.0 COMMUNITY ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND INTERVENTIONS
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Our assessment reveals how communities
in Budi County are responding to
environmental challenges while
highlighting opportunities for enhanced
resilience. Understanding both traditional
and emerging adaptation strategies helps
inform effective intervention design. The
analysis of adaptation strategies reveals
varying levels of adoption and
effectiveness across different approaches.
Drought-resistant crops show the highest
adoption rate at 45%, reflecting
communities' recognition of changing
rainfall patterns. These adapted varieties,
including improved sorghum and millet strains, demonstrate 72% effectiveness in maintaining food
security during adverse conditions. The relatively high cost efficiency (85%) makes this strategy
particularly attractive for widespread implementation. Water harvesting techniques, while showing lower
adoption (38%), demonstrate impressive effectiveness (78%) where implemented. These systems
include traditional water ponds (hafirs), roof catchment systems, and innovative micro-catchment
designs. The initial investment requirements explain the lower adoption rate, despite the clear benefits
in water security.
The recommended interventions follow a phased approach, balancing immediate needs with long-term
sustainability. The largest immediate investment focuses on soil conservation ($250,000), targeting
critical erosion zones through terracing, contour bunding, and improved agricultural practices. This
investment is projected to reduce soil loss by 60% in treated areas within the first year.
Water management receives
significant attention across all
phases, with increasing investment
from immediate ($200,000) to short-
term ($350,000) interventions. This
progressive scaling allows for initial
emergency repairs to critical water
points while building toward
comprehensive watershed
management systems.
The expected outcomes show a
balanced distribution of benefits,
with environmental recovery (35%) complementing improvements in food security (25%), water security
(20%), and economic benefits (20%). This integrated approach ensures that environmental
improvements translate directly into enhanced community resilience.
5.0 IMPLEMENTATION TIMELINE AND
MONITORING FRAMEWORK
The success of environmental interventions in
Budi County depends on careful sequencing
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of activities and robust monitoring systems. Let's examine how these components work together to
ensure effective implementation and measurable results. The implementation timeline follows a
carefully structured progression that recognizes the interconnected nature of environmental
interventions. The planning phase, completed in Q4 2024, establishes the foundation for all subsequent
activities. This includes detailed site assessments, community consultations, and the establishment of
baseline measurements for key environmental indicators.
Community mobilization reaches full engagement by Q1 2025, reflecting the time needed to establish
inclusive participation mechanisms. This includes the formation of environmental management
committees in each payam and the development of community action plans. The high level of
community engagement (100%) provides the social foundation necessary for sustainable
implementation.
Infrastructure development shows a steady progression from 20% in Q4 2024 to 90% by Q3 2025. This
measured pace allows for proper technical supervision and quality control, particularly important for soil
conservation structures and water management systems. The sequential implementation also enables
learning and adaptation based on early experiences. The monitoring framework combines technical
measurements with community-based
observation systems. For soil erosion,
monthly checks (12 per year) at
designated monitoring points provide early
warning of degradation trends. This is
supplemented by quarterly assessments
(4 per year) that include detailed
measurements of soil loss rates and
vegetation cover changes.
Water quality monitoring shows the
highest frequency of checks, with 24
monthly samples taken across different
water points. This intensive monitoring
reflects the critical importance of water quality for community health and agricultural productivity. The
quarterly assessments (8 per year) include comprehensive chemical and biological analysis, while
annual surveys (2 per year) assess long-term changes in water availability and access.
Community engagement in monitoring activities shows steady growth, with the number of community
meetings increasing from 24 to 60 over the implementation period. This is accompanied by expanded
training programs, growing from 12 to 30 sessions, which build local capacity for environmental
monitoring and management. Overall participation rates rise from 65% to 92%, indicating strong
community ownership of the monitoring process.
6.0 RISK MANAGEMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY (AS OF OCTOBER 2024)
The assessment of risks and sustainability measures is based on current conditions and projected
challenges through October 2024. Let's examine the key risk factors and mitigation strategies identified
during our assessment period. As of October 2024, our risk assessment identifies climate variability as
the most significant challenge, with an 85% probability and 90% potential impact. Current readiness
levels for managing climate risks stand at 45%, indicating an urgent need for enhanced adaptation
measures. The assessment shows that extreme weather events, particularly prolonged dry spells and
intense rainfall episodes, pose immediate threats to project success.
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Resource conflicts present the second most significant risk, with a 70% probability and 75% impact
potential. While community readiness for managing these conflicts is slightly better at 55%, the
assessment indicates that competition for diminishing water and grazing resources could escalate
without proper intervention.
Looking at sustainability requirements,
we observe significant gaps between
current conditions and required levels
across all dimensions:
Environmental Sustainability: Current
level stands at 42% against a required
75%, reflecting the need for immediate
interventions in soil conservation and
water management.
Financial Sustainability: At 38% versus
required 70%, this represents the largest gap. Local resource mobilization and sustainable financing
mechanisms need substantial strengthening.
Social Sustainability: Shows the highest current achievement at 55%, though still below the required
80%. This reflects relatively strong community structures that can be built upon.
The monitoring networks show the
highest implementation level at 50%,
reflecting early investments in
environmental tracking systems.
However, their effectiveness rating of
58% indicates room for improvement in
data collection and analysis processes.
Community Environmental Funds show
the lowest implementation level (35%),
though their effectiveness rating of 42%
suggests potential for growth with proper
support.
Resource mobilization trends from June
to October 2024 show gradual improvement across all categories. Local funding capacity has increased
from 25% to 38%, while technical skills have improved from 38% to 52%. These positive trends, though
modest, provide a foundation for future development.
7.0 RECOMMENDATIONS AND ACTION PLAN
Based on our comprehensive assessment of Budi County's environmental vulnerabilities through
October 2024, we recommend a structured intervention approach that addresses both immediate
challenges and builds foundations for long-term resilience. Our recommendations are gPriority
Interventions
Soil Conservation and Land Rehabilitation
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Our assessment identifies soil conservation as the most urgent priority, with a 90% urgency rating and
85% potential impact. We recommend immediate implementation of:
Terracing and contour bunding across 8,000 hectares of critical erosion zones
Establishment of 150 check dams in active gully areas
Introduction of conservation agriculture practices to 3,500 farming households The estimated
cost of USD 250,000 reflects the scale and complexity of required interventions.
Water Resource Management
With an urgency rating of 85% and impact potential of 88%, water management requires swift action
through:
Rehabilitation of 25 critical water points
Construction of 15 managed aquifer recharge structures
Formation of water management committees in all six payams
The proposed budget of USD 200,000 enables comprehensive water infrastructure development.
Implementation Timeline and Early Outcomes
Based on current conditions, we project the following implementation sequence:
November-December 2024:
Establishment of project
management structures
Community mobilization and
detailed site assessments
Emergency rehabilitation of
critical water points
Initial soil conservation works in
highest priority areas
January-February 2025:
Full-scale implementation of
soil conservation measures
Water infrastructure development
Community capacity building programs
Establishment of monitoring systems
Our projections show potential for significant early gains, with environmental indicators improving from
45% to 65% within the first four months of implementation. Socioeconomic benefits lag slightly but
show steady improvement from 40% to 62% over the same period.
8.0 CONCLUSION 11
REFERENCES 12
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