09/04/2025 01:30 Untitled7.

ipynb - Colab

!pip install --upgrade --force-reinstall numpy pandas

!pip install catboost shap linearmodels plotly seaborn

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Collecting numpy
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Collecting pandas
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Downloading six-1.17.0-py2.py3-none-any.whl (11 kB)
Installing collected packages: pytz, tzdata, six, numpy, python-dateutil, pandas
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Found existing installation: pytz 2025.2
Uninstalling pytz-2025.2:
Successfully uninstalled pytz-2025.2
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Found existing installation: tzdata 2025.2
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Attempting uninstall: six
Found existing installation: six 1.17.0
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Successfully uninstalled six-1.17.0
Attempting uninstall: numpy
Found existing installation: numpy 2.0.2
Uninstalling numpy-2.0.2:
Successfully uninstalled numpy 2 0 2
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Successfully uninstalled numpy-2.0.2
Attempting uninstall: python-dateutil
Found existing installation: python-dateutil 2.8.2
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Successfully uninstalled python-dateutil-2.8.2
Attempting uninstall: pandas
Found existing installation: pandas 2.2.2
Uninstalling pandas-2.2.2:
Successfully uninstalled pandas-2.2.2
ERROR: pip's dependency resolver does not currently take into account all the packages that are installed. This behaviour is the sou
google-colab 1.0.0 requires pandas==2.2.2, but you have pandas 2.2.3 which is incompatible.
numba 0.60.0 requires numpy<2.1,>=1.22, but you have numpy 2.2.4 which is incompatible.
tensorflow 2.18.0 requires numpy<2.1.0,>=1.26.0, but you have numpy 2.2.4 which is incompatible.
Successfully installed numpy-2.2.4 pandas-2.2.3 python-dateutil-2.9.0.post0 pytz-2025.2 six-1.17.0 tzdata-2025.2
WARNING: The following packages were previously imported in this runtime:
[dateutil,six]
You must restart the runtime in order to use newly installed versions.

RESTART SESSION

Collecting catboost
Downloading catboost-1.2.7-cp311-cp311-manylinux2014_x86_64.whl.metadata (1.2 kB)
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Collecting numpy<2.0,>=1.16.0 (from catboost)
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Downloading interface_meta-1.3.0-py3-none-any.whl.metadata (6.7 kB)
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Downloading catboost-1.2.7-cp311-cp311-manylinux2014_x86_64.whl (98.7 MB)
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ERROR: Operation cancelled by user
^C

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# Réinstaller des versions compatibles avec Colab

!pip install numpy==1.26.4 pandas==2.2.2
!pip install catboost shap linearmodels plotly seaborn --upgrade
Requirement already satisfied: pandas>=0.24 in /usr/local/lib/python3.11/dist-packages (from catboost) (2.2.2)
Requirement already satisfied: scipy in /usr/local/lib/python3.11/dist-packages (from catboost) (1.14.1)

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Requirement already satisfied: threadpoolctl>=3.1.0 in /usr/local/lib/python3.11/dist-packages (from scikit-learn->shap) (3.6.0)
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Installing collected packages: setuptools-scm, plotly, mypy-extensions, interface-meta, pyhdfe, formulaic, catboost, linearmodels
Attempting uninstall: plotly
Found existing installation: plotly 5.24.1
Uninstalling plotly-5.24.1:
Successfully uninstalled plotly-5.24.1
Successfully installed catboost-1.2.7 formulaic-1.1.1 interface-meta-1.3.0 linearmodels-6.1 mypy-extensions-1.0.0 plotly-6.0.1 py

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import shap
import catboost
from matplotlib import pyplot as plt
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error, r2_score
from sklearn.inspection import permutation_importance
from sklearn import preprocessing
import plotly_express as px
import plotly.io as io
io.renderers.default = 'colab'
import seaborn as sns
import statsmodels.api as sm
import statsmodels.formula.api as smf
from statsmodels.tools.sm_exceptions import ConvergenceWarning
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
import re
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import re
from linearmodels.panel import PanelOLS, RandomEffects

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ValueError Traceback (most recent call last)
<ipython-input-2-3c7ef9de062c> in <cell line: 0>()
----> 1 import pandas as pd
2 import numpy as np
3 import shap
4 import catboost
5 from matplotlib import pyplot as plt

6 frames
/usr/local/lib/python3.11/dist-packages/numpy/random/_pickle.py in <module>
----> 1 from .mtrand import RandomState
2 from ._philox import Philox
3 from ._pcg64 import PCG64, PCG64DXSM
4 from ._sfc64 import SFC64
5

numpy/random/mtrand.pyx in init numpy.random.mtrand()

ValueError: numpy.dtype size changed, may indicate binary incompatibility. Expected 96 from C header, got 88 from PyObject

Étapes suivantes : Expliquer l'erreur

# Forcer une version compatible de NumPy (1.26.4)

!pip install numpy==1.26.4 --force-reinstall

Collecting numpy==1.26.4
Using cached numpy-1.26.4-cp311-cp311-manylinux_2_17_x86_64.manylinux2014_x86_64.whl.metadata (61 kB)
Using cached numpy-1.26.4-cp311-cp311-manylinux_2_17_x86_64.manylinux2014_x86_64.whl (18.3 MB)
Installing collected packages: numpy
Attempting uninstall: numpy
Found existing installation: numpy 1.26.4
Uninstalling numpy-1.26.4:
Successfully uninstalled numpy-1.26.4
Successfully installed numpy-1.26.4

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import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

print("✅ NumPy version :", np.__version__)

print("✅ Pandas version :", pd.__version__)

✅ NumPy version : 1.26.4

✅ Pandas version : 2.2.2

!pip install shap catboost linearmodels plotly seaborn

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Requirement already satisfied: graphviz in /usr/local/lib/python3.11/dist-packages (from catboost) (0.20.3)
Requirement already satisfied: matplotlib in /usr/local/lib/python3.11/dist-packages (from catboost) (3.10.0)
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Requirement already satisfied: mypy-extensions>=0.4 in /usr/local/lib/python3.11/dist-packages (from linearmodels) (1.0.0)
Requirement already satisfied: Cython>=3.0.10 in /usr/local/lib/python3.11/dist-packages (from linearmodels) (3.0.12)
Requirement already satisfied: pyhdfe>=0.1 in /usr/local/lib/python3.11/dist-packages (from linearmodels) (0.2.0)
Requirement already satisfied: formulaic>=1.0.0 in /usr/local/lib/python3.11/dist-packages (from linearmodels) (1.1.1)
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import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import shap
import catboost
from matplotlib import pyplot as plt
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error, r2_score
from sklearn.inspection import permutation_importance
from sklearn import preprocessing
import plotly_express as px
import plotly.io as io
io.renderers.default = 'colab' # pour afficher les graphes dans Colab
import seaborn as sns
import statsmodels.api as sm
import statsmodels.formula.api as smf
from statsmodels.tools.sm_exceptions import ConvergenceWarning
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
import re
from linearmodels.panel import PanelOLS, RandomEffects

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---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ModuleNotFoundError Traceback (most recent call last)
<ipython-input-5-d25b15e8853d> in <cell line: 0>()
8 from sklearn.inspection import permutation_importance
9 from sklearn import preprocessing
---> 10 import plotly_express as px
11 import plotly.io as io
12 io.renderers.default = 'colab' # pour afficher les graphes dans Colab

ModuleNotFoundError: No module named 'plotly_express'

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTE: If your import is failing due to a missing package, you can
manually install dependencies using either !pip or !apt.

To view examples of installing some common dependencies, click the

"Open Examples" button below.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

OPEN EXAMPLES

Étapes suivantes : Expliquer l'erreur

!pip install plotly --upgrade

Requirement already satisfied: plotly in /usr/local/lib/python3.11/dist-packages (6.0.1)

Requirement already satisfied: narwhals>=1.15.1 in /usr/local/lib/python3.11/dist-packages (from plotly) (1.33.0)
Requirement already satisfied: packaging in /usr/local/lib/python3.11/dist-packages (from plotly) (24.2)

import plotly.express as px
import plotly.io as io
io.renderers.default = 'colab'
print("✅ Plotly fonctionne !")

✅ Plotly fonctionne !

https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1-inbqYZTiEg6p8mP99X2w9THpPcMBdEC?authuser=0#scrollTo=0cCuI2zu55q_&printMode=true 10/28
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from google.colab import files
uploaded = files.upload()

Sélect. fichiers small_data.xlsx

small_data.xlsx(application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet) - 34389 bytes, last modified: 08/04/2025 - 100% done
Saving small data xlsx to small data xlsx

# Lire le fichier Excel importé

df = pd.read_excel('small_data.xlsx')

# Supprimer les espaces dans les noms de colonnes

import re
df.columns = [re.sub(r'\s+', '', col) for col in df.columns]

# Afficher les premières lignes du tableau pour vérifier

df.head()

Année Pays Prod_brut_millier_US$ PIB_US$_habit Crop_prod_index_WB IP_FAOSTAT FERTI% FERTIKg/ha Inflation.GDPdeflator

Afrique
0 1991 8790084 3144.504100 73.53 65.99 98.509251 57.372093
du Sud

Afrique
1 1992 8437701 3434.637439 53.89 56.41 97.706667 55.671200
du Sud

Afrique
2 1993 8519624 3461.334353 69.59 62.15 109.359829 62.817146
du Sud

Afrique
3 1994 9197842 3547.951415 78.19 63.50 108.496826 55.918216
du Sud

Afrique
4 1995 9135337 3904.324238 63.64 56.43 96.696924 56.814815
du Sud

5 rows × 27 columns

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# Calcul de statistiques descriptives pour chaque pays
# Ici, on prend trois variables en exemple : prod_value, crop_prod_index, inf_pct
desc_stats = df.groupby('Pays')[['prod_value', 'crop_prod_index', 'inf_pct']].agg(['mean', 'std', 'min', 'max'])

# Afficher les statistiques calculées

desc_stats

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
KeyError Traceback (most recent call last)
<ipython-input-11-678a183632dc> in <cell line: 0>()
1 # Calcul de statistiques descriptives pour chaque pays
2 # Ici, on prend trois variables en exemple : prod_value, crop_prod_index, inf_pct
----> 3 desc_stats = df.groupby('Pays')[['prod_value', 'crop_prod_index', 'inf_pct']].agg(['mean', 'std', 'min', 'max'])
4
5 # Afficher les statistiques calculées

1 frames
/usr/local/lib/python3.11/dist-packages/pandas/core/base.py in __getitem__(self, key)
237 if len(self.obj.columns.intersection(key)) != len(set(key)):
238 bad_keys = list(set(key).difference(self.obj.columns))
--> 239 raise KeyError(f"Columns not found: {str(bad_keys)[1:-1]}")
240 return self._gotitem(list(key), ndim=2)
241

KeyError: "Columns not found: 'prod_value', 'inf_pct', 'crop_prod_index'"

Étapes suivantes : Expliquer l'erreur

df.columns.tolist()

['Année',
'Pays',
'Prod_brut_millier_US$',
'PIB_US$_habit',
'Crop_prod_index_WB',
'IP_FAOSTAT',
'FERTI%',
'FERTIKg/ha',
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'Inflation.GDPdeflator(annual%)',
'Inflation.consumerprices(annual%)',
'Précipitat_moy_mm/an',
'Emploi_agricole_%',
'ΔTͦC',
'Conflit',
'Epidemic',
'Flood',
'Drought',
'Earthquake',
'Storm',
'Terresarables(%)',
'FERTI_N_kg/ha',
'FERTI_P205_kg/ha',
'FERTI_K2O_kg/ha',
'Pesticides(total)_tonnes',
'Insecticides_tonnes',
'Herbicides_tonnes',
'Indicedesprixàlaproduction(2014-2016=100)']

# Renommer les colonnes pour qu'elles soient plus simples à utiliser

df = df.rename(columns={
'Année': 'year',
'Pays': 'Pays',
'Prod_brut_millier_US$': 'prod_value',
'PIB_US$_habit': 'pib_habit',
'Crop_prod_index_WB': 'crop_prod_index',
'IP_FAOSTAT': 'ip_faostat',
'FERTI%': 'FERTI_pct',
'FERTIKg/ha': 'FERTI_kg_ha',
'Inflation.GDPdeflator(annual%)': 'inf_pct',
'Inflation.consumerprices(annual%)': 'cpi_pct',
'Précipitat_moy_mm/an': 'precipitation',
'Emploi_agricole_%': 'Emploi_agricole_pct',
'ΔTͦC': 'delta_t',
'Indicedesprixàlaproduction(2014-2016=100)': 'ppi_pct'
# Tu peux en ajouter d'autres si besoin
})

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df.columns.tolist()

['year',
'Pays',
'prod_value',
'pib_habit',
'crop_prod_index',
'ip_faostat',
'FERTI_pct',
'FERTI_kg_ha',
'inf_pct',
'cpi_pct',
'precipitation',
'Emploi_agricole_pct',
'delta_t',
'Conflit',
'Epidemic',
'Flood',
'Drought',
'Earthquake',
'Storm',
'Terresarables(%)',
'FERTI_N_kg/ha',
'FERTI_P205_kg/ha',
'FERTI_K2O_kg/ha',
'Pesticides(total)_tonnes',
'Insecticides_tonnes',
'Herbicides_tonnes',
'ppi_pct']

# Calcul de statistiques descriptives pour chaque pays avec les noms de colonnes simplifiés
desc_stats = df.groupby('Pays')[[
'prod_value',
'crop_prod_index',
'inf_pct'
]].agg(['mean', 'std', 'min', 'max'])

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# Afficher les statistiques
desc_stats

prod_value crop_prod_index inf_pct

mean std min max mean std min max mean std min max

Pays

Afrique du
1.514965e+07 6.439492e+06 7043172 26274673 91.692813 16.893057 53.89 125.16 7.654703 2.955873 3.993295 15.6545
Sud

Mozambique 3.386417e+06 1.983750e+06 852303 7971229 90.954688 33.444313 37.04 157.47 12.930477 15.341387 1.085871 51.4598

Étapes suivantes : Générer du code avec desc_stats toggle_off Afficher les graphiques recommandés New interactive sheet

from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler

# Sélection des colonnes numériques (on exclut 'year')

variables_numeriques = df.select_dtypes(include='number').columns.difference(['year'])

# Création d'une copie du dataframe pour appliquer la normalisation

df_scaled = df.copy()

# Création de l'objet scaler

scaler = MinMaxScaler()

# Application du MinMaxScaler à chaque groupe de pays

df_scaled[variables_numeriques] = df.groupby('Pays')[variables_numeriques].transform(
lambda x: scaler.fit_transform(x.values.reshape(-1, 1)).flatten()
)

/usr/local/lib/python3.11/dist-packages/sklearn/utils/_array_api.py:776: RuntimeWarning:

All-NaN slice encountered

/usr/local/lib/python3.11/dist-packages/sklearn/utils/_array_api.py:793: RuntimeWarning:

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All-NaN slice encountered

/usr/local/lib/python3.11/dist-packages/sklearn/utils/_array_api.py:776: RuntimeWarning:

All-NaN slice encountered

/usr/local/lib/python3.11/dist-packages/sklearn/utils/_array_api.py:793: RuntimeWarning:

All-NaN slice encountered

# Supprimer des colonnes spécifiques

df_scaled = df_scaled.drop(['FERTI_pct', 'cpi_pct', 'delta_t'], axis = 1)

# Vérifier les colonnes avec des valeurs manquantes

missing = pd.DataFrame(df_scaled.isna().sum())

# Supprimer les colonnes qui ont trop de valeurs manquantes

selected_columns = df_scaled.dropna(axis = 1, thresh = len(df_scaled) - 2)

# Afficher un résumé des colonnes conservées

selected_columns.info()

<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
RangeIndex: 96 entries, 0 to 95
Data columns (total 21 columns):
# Column Non-Null Count Dtype
--- ------ -------------- -----
0 year 96 non-null int64
1 Pays 96 non-null object
2 prod_value 96 non-null float64
3 pib_habit 96 non-null float64
4 crop_prod_index 96 non-null float64
5 ip_faostat 96 non-null float64
6 FERTI_kg_ha 94 non-null float64
7 inf_pct 95 non-null float64
8 Emploi_agricole_pct 96 non-null float64
9 Conflit 96 non-null float64

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10 Epidemic 96 non-null float64
11 Flood 96 non-null float64
12 Drought 96 non-null float64
13 Earthquake 96 non-null float64
14 Storm 96 non-null float64
15 Terresarables(%) 96 non-null float64
16 FERTI_N_kg/ha 94 non-null float64
17 Pesticides(total)_tonnes 96 non-null float64
18 Insecticides_tonnes 96 non-null float64
19 Herbicides_tonnes 96 non-null float64
20 ppi_pct 96 non-null float64
dtypes: float64(19), int64(1), object(1)
memory usage: 15.9+ KB

import statsmodels.formula.api as smf

# Définir le modèle de régression linéaire

lin_model1 = 'prod_value ~ pib_habit + FERTI_kg_ha + inf_pct + Emploi_agricole_pct + ppi_pct'

# Estimer le modèle avec statsmodels

lin_model_est1 = smf.ols(lin_model1, data=selected_columns).fit()

# Afficher les résultats

print(lin_model_est1.summary())

OLS Regression Results

==============================================================================
Dep. Variable: prod_value R-squared: 0.939
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.935
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 267.0
Date: Tue, 08 Apr 2025 Prob (F-statistic): 3.41e-51
Time: 23:31:27 Log-Likelihood: 112.35
No. Observations: 93 AIC: -212.7
Df Residuals: 87 BIC: -197.5
Df Model: 5
Covariance Type: nonrobust
=======================================================================================
coef std err t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Intercept -0.2550 0.050 -5.111 0.000 -0.354 -0.156
pib_habit 0.5400 0.049 10.959 0.000 0.442 0.638
FERTI_kg_ha -0.0986 0.043 -2.291 0.024 -0.184 -0.013
inf_pct 0.0504 0.041 1.231 0.222 -0.031 0.132
Emploi_agricole_pct 0.2094 0.045 4.647 0.000 0.120 0.299
ppi_pct 0.8528 0.054 15.827 0.000 0.746 0.960
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 3.731 Durbin-Watson: 0.804
Prob(Omnibus): 0.155 Jarque-Bera (JB): 3.281
Skew: 0.279 Prob(JB): 0.194
Kurtosis: 3.732 Cond. No. 13.6
==============================================================================

Notes:
[1] Standard Errors assume that the covariance matrix of the errors is correctly specified.

# Dictionnaire pour stocker les résultats par pays

results_by_country = {}

# Pour chaque pays, on ajuste un modèle linéaire avec la même formule

for country, group in selected_columns.groupby('Pays'):
model = smf.ols(formula=lin_model1, data=group).fit()
results_by_country[country] = model

# Afficher les résultats pour chaque pays

for country, model in results_by_country.items():
print(f"\n--- {country} ---")
print(model.summary())
print("\n")

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Skew: 0.966 Prob(JB): 0.0130
Kurtosis: 4.794 Cond. No. 28.3
==============================================================================

Notes:
[1] Standard Errors assume that the covariance matrix of the errors is correctly specified.

panel_data = selected_columns.set_index(['Pays', 'year'])

# Effets fixes
fe_model = PanelOLS.from_formula(
'prod_value ~ pib_habit + FERTI_kg_ha + inf_pct + Emploi_agricole_pct + ppi_pct + EntityEffects',
data=panel_data
)
fe_results = fe_model.fit()
print("📘 Modèle à effets fixes (Fixed Effects)\n")
print(fe_results.summary)

# Effets aléatoires
re_model = RandomEffects.from_formula(
'prod_value ~ pib_habit + FERTI_kg_ha + inf_pct + Emploi_agricole_pct + ppi_pct',
data=panel_data
)
re_results = re_model.fit()
print("\n📗 Modèle à effets aléatoires (Random Effects)\n")
print(re_results.summary)

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Parameter Std. Err. T-stat P-value Lower CI Upper CI
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
pib_habit 0.5425 0.0480 11.301 0.0000 0.4471 0.6380
FERTI_kg_ha -0.0900 0.0430 -2.0934 0.0393 -0.1754 -0.0045
inf_pct 0.0212 0.0412 0.5144 0.6083 -0.0607 0.1031
Emploi_agricole_pct 0.2261 0.0455 4.9668 0.0000 0.1356 0.3166
ppi_pct 0.8370 0.0550 15.207 0.0000 0.7276 0.9465
=======================================================================================

F-test for Poolability: 3.7445

P-value: 0.0276
Distribution: F(2,85)

Included effects: Entity

📗 Modèle à effets aléatoires (Random Effects)

RandomEffects Estimation Summary

================================================================================
Dep. Variable: prod_value R-squared: 0.9685

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FERTI_kg_ha -0.1011 0.0488 -2.0718 0.0412 -0.1981 -0.0041
inf_pct -0.0177 0.0439 -0.4037 0.6874 -0.1049 0.0695
Emploi_agricole_pct 0.0066 0.0242 0.2716 0.7865 -0.0415 0.0547
ppi_pct 0.7544 0.0571 13.221 0.0000 0.6410 0.8677
=======================================================================================

from linearmodels.panel import PanelOLS, RandomEffects

# Trier les données par pays et année (obligatoire pour la fenêtre glissante)
df_res = selected_columns.sort_values(['Pays', 'year'])

# Calcul de l'écart-type glissant (rolling standard deviation) sur 3 années

df_res['resilience'] = df_res.groupby('Pays')['prod_value'].rolling(window=3).std().reset_index(level=0, drop=True)

# Supprimer les lignes avec valeurs manquantes dans la colonne 'resilience'

df_res = df_res.dropna(subset=['resilience'])

# Vérifier le résultat
df_res[['Pays', 'year', 'prod_value', 'resilience']].head(10)

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Pays year prod_value resilience

2 Afrique du Sud 1993 0.076773 0.009589

3 Afrique du Sud 1994 0.112039 0.021695

4 Afrique du Sud 1995 0.108788 0.019490

5 Afrique du Sud 1996 0.126761 0.009577

6 Afrique du Sud 1997 0.160734 0.026381

7 Afrique du Sud 1998 0.066144 0.047916

8 Afrique du Sud 1999 0.057151 0.057384

9 Afrique du Sud 2000 0.016616 0.026385

10 Afrique du Sud 2001 0.000000 0.029398

11 Afrique du Sud 2002 0.010689 0.008421

# Panel regression with resilience

panel2 = df_res.set_index(['Pays', 'year'])

# 1) Fixed effects
fe_res_model = PanelOLS.from_formula('resilience ~ pib_habit + FERTI_kg_ha + inf_pct + Emploi_agricole_pct + ppi_pct + EntityEffects', d
fe_res_model_results = fe_res_model.fit()
print(fe_res_model_results.summary)

# 2) Random effects
re_res_model = RandomEffects.from_formula('resilience ~ pib_habit + FERTI_kg_ha + inf_pct + Emploi_agricole_pct + ppi_pct', data = panel
re_res_model_results = re_res_model.fit()
print(re_res_model_results.summary)

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Min Obs: 2.0000
Max Obs: 3.0000

Parameter Estimates
=======================================================================================
Parameter Std. Err. T-stat P-value Lower CI Upper CI
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
pib_habit 0.1081 0.0282 3.8326 0.0003 0.0520 0.1642
FERTI_kg_ha -0.0378 0.0251 -1.5030 0.1368 -0.0878 0.0122
inf_pct 0.0082 0.0264 0.3106 0.7569 -0.0444 0.0608
Emploi_agricole_pct 0.0774 0.0265 2.9165 0.0046 0.0246 0.1302
ppi_pct 0.1128 0.0322 3.4994 0.0008 0.0487 0.1770
=======================================================================================

F-test for Poolability: 1.1282

P-value: 0.3287
Distribution: F(2,80)

Included effects: Entity

RandomEffects Estimation Summary
================================================================================
Dep. Variable: resilience R-squared: 0.7457
Estimator: RandomEffects R-squared (Between): 0.9941
No. Observations: 88 R-squared (Within): 0.3410
Date: Tue, Apr 08 2025 R-squared (Overall): 0.7457

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---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
pib_habit 0.0704 0.0197 3.5819 0.0006 0.0313 0.1095
FERTI_kg_ha -0.0312 0.0246 -1.2667 0.2088 -0.0802 0.0178
inf_pct -0.0062 0.0246 -0.2512 0.8023 -0.0551 0.0427
Emploi_agricole_pct 0.0295 0.0127 2.3267 0.0224 0.0043 0.0548
ppi_pct 0.0830 0.0289 2.8710 0.0052 0.0255 0.1405
=======================================================================================
/usr/local/lib/python3.11/dist-packages/linearmodels/panel/model.py:2759: MissingValueWarning:

Inputs contain missing values. Dropping rows with missing observations.

# Nouvelle formule de régression avec la résilience comme variable dépendante

lin_model2 = 'resilience ~ pib_habit + FERTI_kg_ha + inf_pct + Emploi_agricole_pct + ppi_pct'

# Estimation du modèle
lin_model_est2 = smf.ols(lin_model2, data=df_res).fit()

# Résultats
print(lin_model_est2.summary())

OLS Regression Results

==============================================================================
Dep. Variable: resilience R-squared: 0.359
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.320
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 9.194
Date: Tue, 08 Apr 2025 Prob (F-statistic): 5.63e-07
Time: 23:41:52 Log-Likelihood: 156.60
No. Observations: 88 AIC: -301.2
Df Residuals: 82 BIC: -286.3
Df Model: 5
Covariance Type: nonrobust
=======================================================================================
coef std err t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Intercept -0.0474 0.029 -1.659 0.101 -0.104 0.009
pib_habit 0.1041 0.028 3.702 0.000 0.048 0.160
FERTI_kg_ha -0.0305 0.024 -1.252 0.214 -0.079 0.018
inf_pct 0.0089 0.026 0.343 0.733 -0.043 0.061
Emploi_agricole_pct 0.0664 0.026 2.601 0.011 0.016 0.117

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ppi_pct 0.1008 0.031 3.299 0.001 0.040 0.162
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 12.815 Durbin-Watson: 1.512
Prob(Omnibus): 0.002 Jarque-Bera (JB): 14.239
Skew: 0.796 Prob(JB): 0.000809
Kurtosis: 4.162 Cond. No. 13.4
==============================================================================

Notes:
[1] Standard Errors assume that the covariance matrix of the errors is correctly specified.

# How to plot resilience by country

# Group and calculate std (resilience)

resilience_df = df_res.groupby('Pays')['prod_value'].std().reset_index()
resilience_df.columns = ['country', 'resilience']

# Vertical bars : b) Graphiques interactifs avec Plotly

fig = px.bar(resilience_df, x = 'country', y = 'resilience',

title='Production Value Resilience (Standard Deviation) by Country',
labels = {'resilience': 'Std. Dev. of Production Value'})
fig.show()

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Production Value Resilience (Standard Deviation) by Country

0.35

0.3
Std. Dev. of Production Value

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
Afrique du Sud Mozambique

country

# Different colors
fig = px.bar(resilience_df, x='country', y='resilience',
color='resilience', color_continuous_scale='Viridis')
fig.show()

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0.35
resilience

0.33
0.3

0.32
0.25

0.31

0.2
resilience

0.3

0.15
0.29

0.1 0.28

0.27
0.05

0.26
0
Afrique du Sud Mozambique Rwanda

country

# Horizontal bars
fig = px.bar(resilience_df, x='resilience', y='country', orientation='h')
fig.show()

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