#RatingChange

Release date: 24 September 2024

Kevin Roger

Saipem Buy (Hold)

Head of Energy Equipment and Services
+33 1 53 65 36 74
[email protected]

Italy | Energy equip. & services Beta Profile: MCap: EUR4.0bn

Target Price: EUR3.00 (2.50) Change in TP: 20.0% Bloomberg: SPM IM Reuters: SPMI.MI
Current Price: EUR2.02 Change in Sales: 0.4% 24E/2.2% 25E Free float 54.0%
Avg. daily volume (EURm) 97.0
Up/downside: 48.2% Change in Adj. EBIT: 1.2% 24E/5.3% 25E
YTD abs performance 37.7%
Market data: 20 September 2024 Change in Adj. EPS: 1.6% 24E/6.3% 25E 52-week high/low (EUR) 2.42/1.26

Upgrade to Buy, for the Asset Based division FY to 31/12 (EUR)

Sales (m)
12/24E 12/25E 12/26E
13,169.0 14,929.5 15,504.7
Why this report? EBITDA adj (m) 1,262.0 1,600.2 1,805.4
EBIT adj (m) 556.0 894.2 1,099.4
Some clouds will remain for Saipem short term (Thail Oil, Mozambique, etc.). Net profit adj (m) 270.4 534.9 685.6
However, its recent commercial dynamic in offshore (USD7bn in just a few Net financial debt (m) -518.4 -816.1 -1,220.8
weeks) reinforces the positive sentiment and dynamic here, especially as the FCF (m) 516.4 640.9 791.6
fleet is largely booked for the coming years. We update our model and especially EPS adj. and ful. dil. 0.14 0.27 0.34
Consensus EPS 0.14 0.23 0.29
lift the FY 2024 offshore E&C order intake forecast, with a positive domino effect Net dividend 0.05 0.07 0.10
over 2025-27E. We also shift valuation (in E&C offshore) to 2025-26E, which lifts
FY to 31/12 12/24E 12/25E 12/26E
FV to almost EUR3. We upgrade from Hold to Buy, TP up from EUR2.5 to EUR3. P/E adj and ful. dil. 14.9 7.5 5.9
Key findings EV/EBITDA 3.3 2.3 1.7
EV/EBIT 7.5 4.1 2.7
▪ Key enabler vessels are almost fully booked until 2028E, in our view, offering strong
FCF yield 12.8% 15.9% 19.6%
visibility with good pricing/terms and conditions. We see c. EUR8bn of revenues Dividend yield 2.3% 3.4% 4.7%
with a c. 15% EBITDA margin over the coming years. ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA 0.0 -0.4 -0.7
▪ Offshore drilling is likely to come under a bit of pressure in a lower oil price Gearing -19.4% -26.3% -33.4%
ROIC 14.5% 25.1% 32.3%
environment, but the backlog provides some visibility. We understand that Saudi
EV/IC 1.7 1.5 1.3
Aramco recently asked for a discount on existing contracts (low single digit).
Sector Most Pref. Sector Least Pref.
▪ Onshore (Energy Carriers) continues to be the “bad side” of the story, with a GTT Petrofac
number of clouds still on the horizon. Subsea 7 TGS
Technip Energies Viridien
Deconstructing the forecasts
▪ We lift 2024E our Asset Based Service order intake estimate to EUR10bn (vs. EUR7bn),
taking FY order intake to EUR13.5bn. Our 2024E forecasts remain unchanged, while
for 2025-27E they rise slightly (ABS-related) by 2% on average for top line and EBITDA.

Investment case Valuation methodology

▪ After almost two years of implementation, the new ▪ We use an SOP-based valuation with E&C offshore valued
business plan seems to be bearing its first fruit, especially at 6x EV/EBITDA 2025-26E and E&C onshore at 7x EV/EBIT
in offshore (E&C and drilling), supported by a strong macro 2024-25E. Offshore drilling is valued at 5x EV/EBITDA 2024-
environment and large orders. However, we expect some 25E. We adjust the value for the net debt and other items
execution risks to remain until 2024. Also, performance in (provisions).We finally apply a 10% discount to reflect
onshore (energy carriers) remains poor. above-average operational risks for SPM.
▪ The balance sheet is clearly safe, in our view. Saipem now ▪ We also use a FCF yield approach, asking 9% yield.
needs to regain the full confidence of investors by Risks to our rating
delivering on execution, strategy, and cash flow.
▪ A change in the group's execution could lead to a better
▪ The group has presented an ambitious 2024-27 business recovery in the group's earnings than we have in the
plan. The only disappointment is FCF generation, which model.
will be limited to EUR1.4bn (post lease) over the period,
▪ Stronger support from core shareholders could be a
implying EUR400m per year on average. positive factor for any equity transactions.
Catalysts
▪ Company communication on current backlog execution
(new issues, good execution?).
▪ Potential additional disposals to move net cash position.
▪ Potential update on capex plan and vessel upgrades.
Saipem

IMPORTANT. Please refer to the back of the report for important keplercheuvreux.com
This research is the product of Kepler Cheuvreux, which is authorised
information and disclosures. and regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers in France.
Saipem Buy | Target Price: EUR3.00

Changes in expectations
Changes in expectations (EURm)
Order intake 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E
Old New Change Old New Change Old New Change Old New Change
Order Intake 12,500 15,500 3,000 13,500 13,500 0 13,600 13,600 0 13,600 13,600 0
E&C Offshore 7,000 10,000 3,000 8,000 8,000 0 8,000 8,000 0 8,000 8,000 0
E&C Onshore 5,000 5,000 0 5,000 5,000 0 5,000 5,000 0 5,000 5,000 0
Drilling Offshore 500 500 0 500 500 0 600 600 0 600 600 0

P&L
E&C Offshore
Sales 7,290 7,340 1% 8,211 8,534 4% 8,329 8,797 6% 8,203 8,937 9%
EBITDA 948 954 1% 1,150 1,195 4% 1,249 1,320 6% 1,230 1,341 9%
EBIDTA Margin 13.0% 13.0% 14.0% 14.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
E&C Onshore
Sales 4,995 4,995 0% 5,623 5,623 0% 5,957 5,957 0% 6,142 6,142 0%
EBITDA 0 0 0% 112 112 0% 179 179 0% 307 307 0%
EBITDA Margin 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Drilling Offshore
Sales 832 832 0% 771 771 0% 749 749 0% 739 739 0%
EBITDA 308 308 0% 293 293 0% 307 307 0% 303 303 0%
EBITDA Margin 37.0% 37.0% 38.0% 38.0% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0%
Group
Sales 13,117 13,167 0% 14,605 14,928 2% 15,035 15,503 3% 15,083 15,818 5%
Adj. EBITDA 1,256 1,262 1% 1,555 1,600 3% 1,735 1,805 4% 1,840 1,951 6%
Adj. EBITDA Margin 9.6% 9.6% 10.6% 10.7% 11.5% 11.6% 12.2% 12.3%
Adj. EBIT 550 556 1% 849 894 5% 1,029 1,099 7% 1,134 1,245 10%
Adj. EBIT Margin 4.2% 4.2% 5.8% 6.0% 6.8% 7.1% 7.5% 7.9%
Source: Kepler Cheuvreux

Valuation
We continue to value the company using two valuation methodologies, and make some
adjustments:
◼ An SOP, where we moved the valuation of the Asset-Based Services division from 2024/25E
to 2025-26E (EV/EBITDA multiple remains at 6x). We keep the Energy Carriers division at 7x
EV/EBIT 2024-25E, and the Drilling Offshore at 5x EV/EBITDA 2024/25E. We derive a fair value
of close to EUR3.35
◼ A cash flow yield approach, where we also moved the valuation from the average of 2024-
25E to the average of 2024-26E (adding a year), from which we derive a fair value of close to
EUR2.2.
◼ We continue to apply a 10% discount to our fair value to reflect the short-term risks for the
names, particularly the lingering execution risks for the legacy backlog (c. USD1bn) and the
Thai Oil project.
Maintaining the same weighting of two-thirds for our SOP and one-third for our cash flow-yield
approach, we derive a fair value of close to EUR3.

keplercheuvreux.com 2
Saipem Buy | Target Price: EUR3.00

Sum of the parts

Saipem SOP
Number of shares 1,996
Valuation method Value (EURm) Value per share (EUR)
Asset Based Services 6x EV/EBITDA 2024-26E 7,543 3.78
Energy Carriers 7x EV/EBIT 2024-25E -27 -0.01
Drilling Offshore 5x EV/EBITDA 2024-25E (peers multiple) 1,502 0.75
Group Value (EURm) 9,019 4.52
Financial Asset Reported end-H1 2024 87 0.04
Equity shares in affiliates Reported end-H1 2024 203 0.10
Net debt (post IFRS 16) Reported end-Q2 2024 -148 -0.07
Net construction contract advances (EURm) Reported end-H1 2024 -1,252 -0.63
Retirement benefit obligation Reported end-H1 2024 -192 -0.10
Minorities Reported end-H1 2024 0 0.00
Provisions for dispute & others Reported end-H1 2024 -304 -0.15
Theoretical value to shareholders 7,413 3.71
Discount for execution risks 10% -0.37
Final value to shareholders 3.34
Source: Kepler Cheuvreux

Free-cash-flow yield
Fre-cash flow yield approach
FCF average pre interest, post lease 2024-26E (EURm) 560
FCF yield asked (9%) 9%
Implied market capitalisation (EURm) 6,218
Net debt, pre IFRS 16, end Q1-2024 (EURm) 282
Provisions for dispute & others (EURm) -304
Net construction contract advances (EURm) -1,252
Target market cap (EURm) 4,944
Number of shares (m) 1,996
Implied target price (EUR per share) 2.48
Discount for execution risks 10%
Implied target price (NOK per share) 2.23
Source: Kepler Cheuvreux

keplercheuvreux.com 3
Saipem Buy | Target Price: EUR3.00

Company description Management

Saipem is a leading E&C company that is historically present in oil & gas businesses, Alessandro Puliti, CEO
Paolo Calcagnini, CFO
where it also offers drilling services both in the onshore and offshore segments. The Silvia Merlo, Chairman
company is now diversifying, taking steps in the energy transition (offshore wind,
carbon capture, green refineries, and chemistry), and has set a 2022-25 strategic Key shareholders
Free float 54.00%
plan.
ENI 21.10%
CDP Equity 12.80%

Key data charts

Price performance Sales split by region Sales split by division

2.6
2.4 6%
Offshore E&C
2.2
2.0
1.8
51%
1.6 43%
Onshore E&C
1.4
1.2
Sep 23 Mar 24 Sep 24
Price DJ Stoxx 600 (rebased)
Offshore Drilling

FCF Sales and EBITDA margin FCF and Capex to sales

1,500.0 30.0% 18,000.0 Sales-CAGR3Y based on last est.:9.23% 15.0% 15% 6%
16,000.0 10.0%
1,000.0 20.0% 10% 5%
14,000.0
5.0%
500.0 10.0% 12,000.0 5% 4%
10,000.0 0.0%
0.0 0.0% 0% 3%
8,000.0 -5.0%
-500.0 -10.0% 6,000.0 -5% 2%
-10.0%
4,000.0
-1,000.0 -20.0% -10% 1%
2,000.0 -15.0%
-1,500.0 -30.0% 0.0 -20.0% -15% 0%
19 20 21 22 23 24E 25E 26E 19 20 21 22 23 24E 25E 26E 19 20 21 22 23 24E 25E 26E
Att. FCF (m) (LHS) Att. FCF Yield
Sales (m) (LHS) EBITDA margin FCF to sales (LHS) Capex to sales

SWOT analysis
Strengths Weaknesses
▪ Large-scale and strong capabilities in deepwater and ▪ Lack of vertical integration in SURF-SPS.
frontier areas. ▪ No presence in the North Sea (spool base is missing).
▪ Close ties with ENI and Saudi Aramco. ▪ Lack of experience in tie-back projects.
▪ Broad diversification (by business, region, etc.). ▪ Several execution issues in offshore wind.

Opportunities Threats
▪ Diversification in renewable activities. ▪ Execution has not been great recently.
▪ Potential M&A. ▪ Mozambique LNG is still stopped.
▪ - ▪ -

Price performance Sale s split by regionSal es split by divi sionFCFSales a nd EBI TD A marginFCF a nd Capex to sales

keplercheuvreux.com 4
Saipem Buy | Target Price: EUR3.00

Key financials Market data as of: 20 September 2024

FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21 12/22 12/23 12/24E 12/25E 12/26E

Income Statement (EURm)

Sales 9,020.0 8,530.0 9,110.0 7,354.0 6,880.0 9,989.0 11,897.0 13,169.0 14,929.5 15,504.7
% Change -9.7% -5.4% 6.8% -19.3% -6.4% 45.2% 19.1% 10.7% 13.4% 3.9%
EBITDA adjusted 964.0 1,002.0 1,226.0 614.0 -1,192.0 595.0 926.0 1,262.0 1,600.2 1,805.4
EBITDA adj. margin (%) 10.7% 11.7% 13.5% 8.3% -17.3% 6.0% 7.8% 9.6% 10.7% 11.6%
EBIT adjusted 440.0 534.0 536.0 23.0 -1,808.0 150.0 437.0 556.0 894.2 1,099.4
EBIT adj. margin (%) 4.9% 6.3% 5.9% 0.3% -26.3% 1.5% 3.7% 4.2% 6.0% 7.1%
Net financial items & associates -223.0 -165.0 -210.0 -166.0 -140.0 -195.0 -167.0 -170.0 -160.0 -150.0
Others -9.0 -88.0 -18.0 37.0 9.0 -65.0 60.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Tax -201.0 -194.0 -130.0 -143.0 -70.0 -153.0 -145.0 -145.6 -229.3 -293.8
Net profit from continuing operations -307.0 -410.0 98.0 -1,117.0 -2,467.0 -315.0 185.0 270.4 534.9 685.6
Net profit from discontinuing activities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net profit before minorities -307.0 -410.0 98.0 -1,117.0 -2,467.0 -315.0 185.0 270.4 534.9 685.6
Net profit reported -328.0 -472.0 12.0 -1,136.0 -2,467.0 -209.0 179.0 270.4 534.9 685.6
Net profit adjusted 46.0 25.0 92.0 -268.0 -2,009.0 -157.0 179.0 270.4 534.9 685.6

Cash Flow Statement (EURm)

Levered post tax CF before capex 460.0 711.0 1,257.0 123.0 90.0 -484.0 586.0 976.4 990.9 1,141.6
Capex -262.0 -485.0 -336.0 -322.0 -298.0 -550.0 -482.0 -460.0 -350.0 -350.0
Free cash flow 198.0 226.0 921.0 -199.0 -208.0 -1,034.0 104.0 516.4 640.9 791.6
Acquisitions & divestments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 503.0 145.0 35.0 0.0 0.0
Dividend paid 0.0 -79.0 -77.0 -69.0 -26.0 1,918.0 72.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Others -43.0 -41.0 -123.0 -132.0 -118.0 -128.0 -119.0 -250.0 -250.0 -250.0
Change in net financial debt -155.0 -106.0 -721.0 400.0 352.0 -1,259.0 -202.0 -301.4 -390.9 -541.6

Balance Sheet (EURm)

Intangible assets 754.0 702.0 767.0 767.0 760.0 756.0 667.0 667.0 667.0 667.0
Tangible assets 4,581.0 4,326.0 4,129.0 3,284.0 3,113.0 2,879.0 2,960.0 2,679.0 2,323.0 1,967.0
Financial & other non-current assets 512.0 436.0 1,101.0 800.0 850.0 924.0 1,108.0 1,108.0 1,108.0 1,108.0

Total shareholders' equity 4,599.0 4,036.0 4,125.0 2,948.0 351.0 2,086.0 2,396.0 2,666.4 3,108.1 3,656.8
Pension provisions 199.0 208.0 246.0 237.0 238.0 183.0 193.0 193.0 193.0 193.0
Liabilities and provisions 7,792.0 7,433.0 8,638.0 8,077.0 10,953.0 10,083.0 10,276.0 10,026.0 9,776.0 9,526.0

Net debt 1,496.0 1,399.0 1,342.0 1,528.0 1,854.0 529.0 706.0 154.6 -393.1 -1,047.8
Net financial debt 1,297.0 1,191.0 470.0 870.0 1,222.0 -57.0 -217.0 -518.4 -816.1 -1,220.8
IFRS 16 debt 0.0 0.0 626.0 421.0 394.0 403.0 730.0 480.0 230.0 -20.0
Net working capital 624.0 326.0 -243.0 -48.0 -1,088.0 -934.0 -837.0 -837.0 -587.0 -337.0
Invested capital 5,958.0 5,354.0 4,584.0 3,937.0 2,724.0 2,636.0 2,789.0 2,508.0 2,402.0 2,296.0

Per share data (EUR)

EPS adjusted 0.05 0.02 0.09 -0.27 -1.99 -0.08 0.09 0.14 0.27 0.34
EPS adj and fully diluted 0.05 0.02 0.09 -0.27 -1.99 -0.08 0.09 0.14 0.27 0.34
% Change -80.1% -45.7% 268.0% -chg -chg +chg +chg 51.1% 97.8% 28.2%
EPS reported -0.32 -0.47 0.01 -1.12 -2.44 -0.10 0.09 0.14 0.27 0.34
Cash flow per share 0.46 0.70 1.24 0.12 0.09 -0.24 0.29 0.49 0.50 0.57
Book value per share 4.51 3.92 3.99 2.89 0.32 1.04 1.20 1.34 1.56 1.83
Dividend per share 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.07 0.10
Number of shares, YE (m) 1,010.98 1,010.98 1,010.98 1,010.98 1,010.98 1,995.00 1,995.00 1,995.00 1,995.00 1,995.00

Ratios
ROE (%) 1.0% 0.6% 2.3% -7.7% -123.7% -13.1% 8.0% 10.7% 18.5% 20.3%
ROIC (%) 4.9% 6.5% 7.4% 0.4% -37.5% 3.9% 11.1% 14.5% 25.1% 32.3%
ND(F+IFRS16) / EBITDA (x) 1.3 1.2 0.9 2.1 -1.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 -0.4 -0.7
Gearing (%) 28.2% 29.5% 11.4% 29.5% 348.1% -2.7% -9.1% -19.4% -26.3% -33.4%

Valuation
P/E adjusted na na 118.2 na na na 15.6 14.9 7.5 5.9
P/E adjusted and fully diluted na na 118.2 na na na 15.6 14.9 7.5 5.9
P/BV 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.1 16.4 1.9 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.1
P/CF 21.1 14.2 8.7 48.8 59.6 na 4.8 4.1 4.1 3.5
Dividend yield (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 3.4% 4.7%
Dividend yield preference shares (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FCF yield (%) 2.0% 2.2% 8.5% -3.3% -3.9% -26.0% 3.7% 12.8% 15.9% 19.6%
EV/Sales 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
EV/EBITDA adj. 11.6 11.5 10.0 12.3 na 7.6 3.8 3.3 2.3 1.7
EV/EBIT adj. 25.5 21.5 22.8 na na 30.1 8.0 7.5 4.1 2.7

keplercheuvreux.com 5
Saipem Buy | Target Price: EUR3.00

Research ratings and important disclosures

The term "KEPLER CHEUVREUX" shall, unless the context otherwise requires, mean each of KEPLER CHEUVREUX and its affiliates, subsidiaries and related companies (see
“Regulators” table below).
The investment recommendation(s) referred to in this report was (were) completed on 23/09/2024 10:06 (GMT) and was first disseminated on 24/09/2024 5:11 (GMT).
Unless otherwise stated, all prices are aligned with the “Market Data date” on the front page of this report.
Disclosure checklist - Potential conflict of interests
Company Name ISIN Disclosure
Saipem IT0005495657 KEPLER CHEUVREUX and UniCredit Bank AG have entered into a Co-operation Agreement to form a strategic alliance in
connection with certain services including services connected to investment banking transactions. UniCredit Bank AG
provides investment banking services to this issuer in return for which UniCredit Bank AG has received a consideration or a
promise of consideration. Separately, through the Co-operation Agreement with UniCredit Bank AG for services provided by
KEPLER CHEUVREUX in connection with such activities, KEPLER CHEUVREUX has also a received consideration or a promise
of a consideration in accordance with the general terms of the Co-operation Agreement
UniCredit Bank AG holds or owns or controls 10% or more of the issued share capital of KEPLER CHEUVREUX. UniCredit Bank
AG provides investment banking services to this issuer in return for which UniCredit Bank AG has received a consideration or
a promise of consideration
A representative of UniCredit Bank AG serves on the board of directors of KEPLER CHEUVREUX
UniCredit, in cooperation with Kepler Cheuvreux, is actingJoint Global Coordinator and Joint Bookrunnerr in the convertible
issuance and secondary delta placing of Saipem (30.08.2023)

Organizational and administrative arrangements to avoid and prevent conflicts of interests

KEPLER CHEUVREUX promotes and disseminates independent investment research and have implemented written procedures designed to identify and manage potential
conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its research business, which are available upon request. The KEPLER CHEUVREUX research analysts and other staff involved in
issuing and disseminating research reports operate independently of KEPLER CHEUVREUX Investment Banking business. Information barriers and procedures are in place
between the research analysts and staff involved in securities trading for the account of KEPLER CHEUVREUX or clients to ensure that price sensitive information is handled
according to applicable laws and regulations.
It is Kepler Cheuvreux’ policy not to disclose the rating to the issuer before publication and dissemination. Nevertheless, this document, in whole or in part, and with the
exclusion of ratings, target prices and any other information that could lead to determine its valuation, may have been provided to the issuer prior to publication and
dissemination, solely with the aim of verifying factual accuracy.
Please refer to www.keplercheuvreux.com for further information relating to research and conflict of interest management.

Analyst disclosures
The functional job title of the person(s) responsible for the recommendations contained in this report is Equity/Credit Research Analyst unless otherwise stated on the cover.
Name of the Research Analyst(s): Kevin Roger
Regulation AC - Analyst Certification: Each Equity/Credit Research Analyst(s) listed on the front-page of this report, principally responsible for the preparation and content of
all or any identified portion of this research report hereby certifies that, with respect to each issuer or security or any identified portion of the report with respect to an issuer or
security that the equity research analyst covers in this research report, all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about those
issuer(s) or securities. Each Equity/Credit Research Analyst(s) also certifies that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendation(s) or view(s) expressed by that equity research analyst in this research report.
Each Equity/Credit Research Analyst certifies that he is acting independently and impartially from KEPLER CHEUVREUX shareholders, directors and is not affected by any
current or potential conflict of interest that may arise from any KEPLER CHEUVREUX activities.
Analyst Compensation: The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of the content of the research report attest that no part of the analyst’s(s’)
compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed by the research analyst(s) in the research report. The research
analyst’s(s’) compensation is, however, determined by the overall economic performance of KEPLER CHEUVREUX.
Registration of non-US Analysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of KEPLER CHEUVREUX, which is a non-US
affiliate and parent company of Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. a SEC registered and FINRA member broker-dealer. Equity/Credit Research Analysts employed by KEPLER
CHEUVREUX, are not registered/qualified as research analysts under FINRA/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. and may not be subject to
NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

Research ratings
Kepler Cheuvreux rating split as of 23 September 2024
Rating Breakdown A B
Buy 54% 61%
Hold 34% 27%
Reduce 8% 5%
Not Rated/Under Review/Accept Offer 4% 7%
Total 100% 100%
Source: Kepler Cheuvreux
A: % of all research recommendations
B: % of issuers to which material services of investment firms are supplied

12 months rating history

The below table shows the history of recommendations and target prices changes issued by KEPLER CHEUVREUX research department (Equity and Credit) over a 12 months
period.
Company Name Date Business Line Rating Target Price Closing Price
Saipem (EUR) 05/10/2023 06:55 Equity Research Hold 1.45 1.37
31/10/2023 05:58 Equity Research Hold 1.65 1.43
01/03/2024 06:26 Equity Research Hold 1.90 1.68
08/05/2024 06:55 Equity Research Hold 2.35 2.16

keplercheuvreux.com 6
Saipem Buy | Target Price: EUR3.00

26/07/2024 04:30 Equity Research Hold 2.50 2.33

Credit research does not issue target prices. Left intentionally blank.
Please refer to the following link https://research.keplercheuvreux.com/disclosure/stock/ for a full list of investment recommendations issued over the last 12
months by the author(s) and contributor(s) of this report on any financial instruments.

Equity research
Rating system
KEPLER CHEUVREUX equity research ratings and target prices are issued in absolute terms, not relative to any given benchmark. A rating on a stock is set after assessing the
twelve months expected upside or downside of the stock derived from the analyst’s fair value (target price) and in the light of the risk profile of the com pany. Ratings are
defined as follows:
Buy: The minimum expected upside is 10% over next 12 months (the minimum required upside could be higher in light of the company’s risk profile).
Hold: The expected upside is below 10% (the expected upside could be higher in light of the company’s risk profile).
Reduce: There is an expected downside.
Accept offer: In the context of a total or partial take-over bid, squeeze-out or similar share purchase proposals, the offer price is considered to be fairly valuing the shares.
Reject offer: In the context of a total or partial take-over bid, squeeze-out or similar share purchase proposals, the offered price is considered to be undervaluing the shares.
Under review: An event occurred with an expected significant impact on our target price and we cannot issue a recommendation before having processed that new
information and/or without a new share price reference.
Not rated: The stock is not covered.
Restricted: A recommendation, target price and/or financial forecast is not disclosed further to compliance and/or other regulatory considerations.
Due to share prices volatility, ratings and target prices may occasionally and temporarily be inconsistent with the above definition.
Valuation methodology and risks
Unless otherwise stated in this report, target prices and investment recommendations are determined based on fundamental research methodologies and relies on commonly
used valuation methodologies such as Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), valuation multiples comparison with history and peers, Dividend Discount Model (DDM).
Valuation methodologies and models can be highly dependent on macroeconomic factors (such as the price of commodities, exchange rates and interest rates) as well as
other external factors including taxation, regulation and geopolitical changes (such as tax policy changes, strikes or war). In addition, investors’ confidence and market
sentiment can affect the valuation of companies. The valuation is also based on expectations that might change rapidly and without notice, depending on developments
specific to individual industries. Whichever valuation method is used there is a significant risk that the target price will not be achieved within the expected timeframe.
Unless otherwise stated, models used are proprietary. Additional information about the proprietary models used in this report is accessible on request.
KEPLER CHEUVREUX’ equity research policy is to update research rating when it deems appropriate in the light of new findings, markets development and any
relevant information that can impact the analyst’s view and opinion.

Regulators
Location Regulator Abbreviation
KEPLER CHEUVREUX S.A - France Autorité des Marchés Financiers AMF
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Madrid branch Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores CNMV
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Frankfurt branch Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht BaFin
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Milan branch Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa CONSOB
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Amsterdam branch Autoriteit Financiële Markten AFM
KEPLER CHEUVREUX (Switzerland) SA, Zurich branch Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA
KEPLER CAPITAL MARKETS, Inc. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority FINRA
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, London branch Financial Conduct Authority FCA
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Vienna branch Austrian Financial Services Authority FMA
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Stockholm branch Finansinspektionen FI
KEPLER CHEUVREUX Oslo branch Finanstilsynet NFSA
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Bruxelles branch Autorité des Services et Marchés Financiers FSMA
KEPLER CHEUVREUX is authorised and regulated by both Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel and Autorité des Marchés Financiers.

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Saipem Buy | Target Price: EUR3.00

Legal and disclosure information

Other disclosures
This product is not for distribution to retail clients.
MIFID 2 WARNING: We remind you that pursuant to MiFID 2, it is your responsibility, as a recipient of this research document, to determine whether or not your firm is impacted
by the provisions of the Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments (“MiFID 2”) regarding the
unbundling of research and execution (the “MiFID 2 Research Rules”). For any request on the provision of research documents, please send an email to
[email protected].
The information contained in this publication was obtained from various publicly available sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by KEPLER
CHEUVREUX. KEPLER CHEUVREUX does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of such information and does not accept any liability with respect to the accuracy or
completeness of such information, except to the extent required by applicable law.
This publication is a brief summary and does not purport to contain all available information on the subjects covered. Further information may be available
on request.
This publication is for information purposes only and shall not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription or purchase or sale of any securities, or as
an invitation, inducement or intermediation for the sale, subscription or purchase of any securities, or for engaging in any other transaction.
Any opinions, projections, forecasts or estimates in this report are those of the author only, who has acted with a high degree of expertise. They reflect only the current views of
the author at the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. KEPLER CHEUVREUX has no obligation to update, modify or amend this publication or to
otherwise notify a reader or recipient of this publication in the event that any matter, opinion, projection, forecast or est imate contained herein, changes or subsequently
becomes inaccurate, or if research on the subject company is withdrawn. The analysis, opinions, projections, forecasts and estimates expressed in this report were in no way
affected or influenced by the issuer. The author of this publication benefits financially from the overall success of KEPLER CHEUVREUX.
The investments referred to in this publication may not be suitable for all recipients. Recipients are urged to base their investment decisions upon their own appropriate
investigations that they deem necessary. Any loss or other consequence arising from the use of the material contained in this publication shall be the sole and exclusive
responsibility of the investor and KEPLER CHEUVREUX accepts no liability for any such loss or consequence. In the event of any doubt about any investment, recipients should
contact their own investment, legal and/or tax advisers to seek advice regarding the appropriateness of investing. Some of the investments mentioned in this publication may
not be readily liquid investments. Consequently it may be difficult to sell or realise such investments. The past is not necessarily a guide to future performance of an
investment. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount invested. Some investments
discussed in this publication may have a high level of volatility. High volatility investments may experience sudden and large falls in their value which may cause losses.
International investing includes risks related to political and economic uncertainties of foreign countries, as well as currency risk.
To the extent permitted by applicable law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss, damages, costs or prejudices whatsoever arising from the
use of this publication or its contents.

Country and region disclosures

United Kingdom: This document is for persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients only and is exempt from the general restriction in section 21 of the
Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 on the communication of invitations or inducements to engage in investment activity on the grounds that it is being distributed in the
United Kingdom only to persons of a kind described in Articles 19(5) (Investment professionals) and 49(2) (High net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.) of the
Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended). It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other
class of persons. Any investment to which this document relates is available only to such persons, and other classes of person should not rely on this document.
United States: This communication is only intended for, and will only be distributed to, persons residing in any jurisdictions where such distribution or availability would not
be contrary to local law or regulation. This communication must not be acted upon or relied on by persons in any jurisdiction other than in accordance with local law or
regulation and where such person is an investment professional with the requisite sophistication to understand an investment in such securities of the type communicated
and assume the risks associated therewith.
This communication is confidential and is intended solely for the addressee. It is not to be forwarded to any other person or copied without the permission of the sender. This
communication is provided for information only. It is not a personal recommendation or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy the securities mentioned. Investors should
obtain independent professional advice before making an investment.
Notice to U.S. Investors: This material is not for distribution in the United States, except to “major US institutional investors” as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6 ("Rule 15a-6").
KEPLER CHEUVREUX has entered into a 15a-6 Agreement with Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. ("KCM, Inc.”) which enables this report to be furnished to certain U.S. recipients in
reliance on Rule 15a-6 through KCM, Inc.
Each U.S. recipient of this report represents and agrees, by virtue of its acceptance thereof, that it is a "major U.S. institutional investor" (as such term is defined in Rule 15a-6)
and that it understands the risks involved in executing transactions in such securities. Any U.S. recipient of this report that wishes to discuss or receive additional information
regarding any security or issuer mentioned herein, or engage in any transaction to purchase or sell or solicit or offer the purchase or sale of such securities, should contact a
registered representative of KCM, Inc.
KCM, Inc. is a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, Member of the
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) and Member of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (“SIPC”). Pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6, you must contact a
Registered Representative of KCM, Inc. if you are seeking to execute a transaction in the securities discussed in this report. You can reach KCM, Inc. at Tower 49, 12 East 49th
Street, Floor 36, New York, NY 10017, Compliance Department (212) 710-7625; Operations Department (212) 710-7606; Trading Desk (212) 710-7602. Further information is also
available at www.keplercheuvreux.com. You may obtain information about SIPC, including the SIPC brochure, by contacting SIPC directly at 202-371-8300; website:
http://www.sipc.org/.
KCM, Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of KEPLER CHEUVREUX. KEPLER CHEUVREUX , registered on the Paris Register of Companies with the number 413 064 841
(1997 B 10253), whose registered office is located at 112 avenue Kléber, 75016 Paris, is authorised and regulated by both Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel (ACP) and Autorité des
Marchés Financiers (AMF).
Nothing herein excludes or restricts any duty or liability to a customer that KCM, Inc. may have under applicable law. Investment products provided by or through KCM, Inc. are
not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution, may lose value and are not
guaranteed by the entity that published the research as disclosed on the front page and are not guaranteed by KCM, Inc.
Investing in non-U.S. Securities may entail certain risks. The securities referred to in this report and non-U.S. issuers may not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933,
as amended, and the issuer of such securities may not be subject to U.S. reporting and/or other requirements. Rule 144A securities may be offered or sold only to persons in the
U.S. who are Qualified Institutional Buyers within the meaning of Rule 144A under the Securities Act. The information available about non-U.S. companies may be limited, and
non-U.S. companies are generally not subject to the same uniform auditing and reporting standards as U.S. companies. Securities of some non-U.S. companies may not be as

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Saipem Buy | Target Price: EUR3.00

liquid as securities of comparable U.S. companies. Securities discussed herein may be rated below investment grade and should therefore only be considered for inclusion in
accounts qualified for speculative investment.
Analysts employed by KEPLER CHEUVREUX SA, a non-U.S. broker-dealer, are not required to take the FINRA analyst exam. The information contained in this report is intended
solely for certain "major U.S. institutional investors" and may not be used or relied upon by any other person for any purpose. Such information is provided for informational
purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any securities under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under any other U.S. federal or
state securities laws, rules or regulations. The investment opportunities discussed in this report may be unsuitable for certain investors depending on their specific investment
objectives, risk tolerance and financial position.
In jurisdictions where KCM, Inc. is not registered or licensed to trade in securities, or other financial products, transactions may be executed only in accordance with applicable
law and legislation, which may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and which may require that a transaction be made in accordance with applicable exemptions from
registration or licensing requirements.
The information in this publication is based on sources believed to be reliable, but KCM, Inc. does not make any representation with respect to its completeness or accuracy. All
opinions expressed herein reflect the author's judgment at the original time of publication, without regard to the date on which you may receive such information, and are
subject to change without notice.
KCM, Inc. and/or its affiliates may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. These
publications reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or
guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to future performance.
KCM, Inc. and any company affiliated with it may, with respect to any securities discussed herein: (a) take a long or short position and buy or sell such securities; (b) act as
investment and/or commercial bankers for issuers of such securities; (c) act as market makers for such securities; (d) serve on the board of any issuer of such securities; and (e)
act as paid consultant or advisor to any issuer. The information contained herein may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws
that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause a company's actual results and financial condition to differ from expectations include, without limitation:
political uncertainty, changes in general economic conditions that adversely affect the level of demand for the company's products or services, changes in foreign exchange
markets, changes in international and domestic financial markets and in the competitive environment, and other factors relating to the foregoing. All forward-looking
statements contained in this report are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement.
France: This publication is issued and distributed in accordance with legal or regulatory requirements relating to independent investment research, as defined under Article 36
of the EU delegated regulation n°565/2017.
Germany: This report must not be distributed to persons who are retail clients in the meaning of Sec. 67 para. 3 of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz
– “WpHG”). This report may be amended, supplemented or updated in such manner and as frequently as the author deems.
Italy: This document is issued by KEPLER CHEUVREUX Milan branch, authorised in France by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) and the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel
(ACP) and registered in Italy by the Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB) and is distributed by KEPLER CHEUVREUX. This document is for Eligible
Counterparties or Professional Clients only as defined by the CONSOB Regulation 16190/2007 (art. 26 and art. 58).Other classes of persons should not rely on this document.
Reports on issuers of financial instruments listed by Article 180, paragraph 1, letter a) of the Italian Consolidated Act on Financial Services (Legislative Decree No. 58 of
24/2/1998, as amended from time to time) must comply with the requirements envisaged by articles 69 to 69-novies of CONSOB Regulation 11971/1999. According to these
provisions KEPLER CHEUVREUX warns on the significant interests of KEPLER CHEUVREUX indicated in Annex 1 hereof, confirms that there are not significant financial interests
of KEPLER CHEUVREUX in relation to the securities object of this report as well as other circumstance or relationship with the issuer of the securities object of this report
(including but not limited to conflict of interest, significant shareholdings held in or by the issuer and other significant interests held by KEPLER CHEUVREUX or other entities
controlling or subject to control by KEPLER CHEUVREUX in relation to the issuer which may affect the impartiality of this document]. Equities discussed herein are covered on a
continuous basis with regular reports at results release. Reports are released on the date shown on cover and distributed via print and email. KEPLER CHEUVREUX branch di
Milano analysts is not affiliated with any professional groups or organisations. All estimates are by KEPLER CHEUVREUX unless otherwise stated.
Spain: This document is only intended for persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients within the meaning of Article 78bis and Article 78ter of the Spanish
Securities Market Act. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. This report has been issued by KEPLER CHEUVREUX
Sucursal en España registered in Spain by the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV) in the foreign investments firms registry and it has been distributed in Spain
by it or by KEPLER CHEUVREUX authorised and regulated by both Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel and Autorité des Marchés Financiers. There is no obligation to either register
or file any report or any supplemental documentation or information with the CNMV. In accordance with the Spanish Securities Market Law (Ley del Mercado de Valores), there
is no need for the CNMV to verify, authorise or carry out a compliance review of this document or related documentation, and no information needs to be provided.
Switzerland: This publication is intended to be distributed to professional investors in circumstances such that there is no public offer. This publication does not constitute a
prospectus within the meaning of Articles 652a and 1156 of the Swiss Code of Obligations.
Canada: The information contained herein is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, a prospectus, an advertisement, a public offering, an offer to sell securities
described herein, solicitation of an offer to buy securities described herein, in Canada or any province or territory thereof. Any offer or sale of the securities described herein in
Canada will be made only under an exemption from the requirements to file a prospectus with the relevant Canadian securities regulators and only by a dealer properly
registered under applicable securities laws or, alternatively, pursuant to an exemption from the dealer registration requirement in the relevant province or territory of Canada
in which such offer or sale is made. Under no circumstances is the information contained herein to be construed as investment advice in any province or territory of Canada
and is not tailored to the needs of the recipient. In Canada, the information contained herein is intended solely for distribution to Permitted Clients (as such term is defined in
National Instrument 31-103) with whom Kepler Capital Markets, inc. deals pursuant to the international dealer exemption. To the extent that the information contained herein
references securities of an issuer incorporated, formed or created under the laws of Canada or a province or territory of Canada, any trades in such securities may not be
conducted through Kepler Capital Markets, inc. No securities commission or similar regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed or in any way passed upon these materials,
the information contained herein or the merits of the securities described herein.
None of the material, nor its content may be altered in anyway, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party, in whole or in part, unless otherwise agreed
with KEPLER CHEUVREUX in writing.
Copyright © KEPLER CHEUVREUX. All rights reserved.

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Local insight,
European scale.

Europe North America

Amsterdam London Paris New York

Kepler Cheuvreux Benelux Kepler Cheuvreux UK Kepler Cheuvreux France Kepler Capital Markets, Inc.
Johannes Vermeerstraat 9 5th Floor 112 Avenue Kleber Tower 49
1071 DK Amsterdam 95 Gresham Street 75016 Paris 12 East 49th Street, Floor 36
+31 20 563 2365 London EC2V 7NA +33 1 53 65 35 00 10017 New York, NY USA
+44 20 7621 5100 +1 212 710 7600

Brussels Madrid Stockholm

Kepler Cheuvreux Belgium Kepler Cheuvreux Espana Kepler Cheuvreux Sweden
Rogier Tower Paseo de la Castellana, 52 Malmskillnadsgatan 23
Place Rogier 11 28046 Madrid 11157 Stockholm
1210 Brussels +34 914 36 5100 +46 8 723 51 00
+32 11 491460

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Kepler Cheuvreux Germany Kepler Cheuvreux Italia Kepler Cheuvreux Austria
Taunusanlage 19 Via C. Cornaggia 10 Schottenring 16/2
60325 Frankfurt 20123 Milan 1010 Vienna
+49 69 756 960 +39 02 8550 7201 +43 1 537 124 147

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Kepler Cheuvreux SA Kepler Cheuvreux Norway Kepler Cheuvreux Switzerland
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1262 Eysins 0270 Oslo 8001 Zurich
Switzerland +47 23 13 9080 +41 43 333 66 66
+41 22361 5151