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INSTRUCTOR:

LESSON: Wildland Fire Decision Support System

COURSE: S-520 – Advanced Incident Management

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Emphasis: introduce concepts of WFDSS decision support and available tools that could
assist in the fire environment. Introduce process and adherence to WFDSS decision in
managing an incident.

OBJECTIVES:

Upon completion of this lesson, participants will be able to:

1. Understand the need for sound decision making.

2. Describe the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS).

3. Identify the multitude of support tools and how they can be utilized to support
incident actions.

4. Identify the Incident Management Team (IMT) role in providing or utilizing

information contained within WFDSS.

I. INTRODUCTION

Our response to wildfires on federal lands is governed by objectives established in the

applicable Land/ Resource Management Plans, not some statutory authority. Most States &
Local Governments do have statutory authority to suppress all fires.

Premade decisions vs. fire time decisions, the trend over the past 20 years is toward more fire
time decisions, a trend that has accelerated over the past 10 years. Decision support tools are
needed to gather and analyze information quickly in order for the agency administrator to make
sound decisions quickly.

WFDSS is designed to establish a process for documenting strategic decisions, provides

decision support, and facilitation of either short or long-term management plans. The WFDSS
process is linear, scalable, and progressively responsive to changing fire complexity and
provides a consistent decision analysis and documentation process for all types of wildland
fires. WFDSS provides a platform for risk-informed decision-making.

Documentation and analysis of wildland fire management decisions has been required by
federal agency policy for nearly 30 years. The 2009 Policy Implementation Guidance requires-

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 “Managers will use a decision support process to guide and document wildfire decisions.
The process will provide situational assessment, analyze hazards and risk, define
implementation actions, and document decisions and rationale for those decisions.”

Because of process limitations, the evolution of multiple processes in wildland fire decision
making, and policy goals of standardization, in June 2005, the then National Fire and Aviation
Executive Board (NFAEB) chartered the WFDSS Phase 1 project to

“develop a scalable decision support system for agency administrators that utilizes
appropriate fire behavior modeling, economic principles, and information technology to
support effective wildland fire decisions consistent with Resource and Fire management
Plans.”

The Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) has been developed to meet this need.
The Forest Service (FS), Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), and Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA)
enter all fires into WFDSS, regardless of size. National Park Service (NPS) and Bureau of Land
Management (BLM) enter fires into WFDSS only when it escapes initial attack. At 98% initial
attack success there may not be a lot of need for analysis to inform decisions. However as
incidents escape initial attack or are managed for multiple objectives more analysis is needed to
inform the decision.

II. WHEN A WFDSS DECISION IS NEEDED

It is recommended that a decision be considered if;

 Wildland fires are no longer following the initial action defined by the Land and Resource
Management Plan (LRMP) or the Fire Management Plan (FMP), or
 Fire continues to actively spread beyond a few burning periods, or
 Wildland fires are being managed or considered for multiple objectives, or
 Prescribed fires exceed prescriptions and are declared wildfires

Decision-making associated with managing wildland fire can have critical impacts. It is
important to make the highest quality informed decisions possible facilitated by factual
information and prediction of the range of outcomes and associated consequences of the
decision. Publishing a decision provides documentation of the management action taken on the
fire and the rationale behind it which will provide support if the fire is litigated in the future.

III. DECISION MAKING

Decision-making is not a science but an art. It requires judgment not calculation. There is no
unit of measure which can weigh the substantive consequences of a decision against the
political consequences, or judge the precise portions of public opinion and congressional
pressure, or balance short-range against long-range, or private against public considerations.

Decision Support Styles:

• Bootstrapping: Traditional thinking. Generally this method is based on historical

precedents. This method often fails to recognize how current conditions are different.

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• Professional Judgment: Personal knowledge. This method is often subjective and
based on personal experience and intuitive input that may be limited scope.

• Formal Analysis: Quantitative approach. This approach is theory-based and provides

the clearest and most definable results that are science based.

All of the different styles should be sought when making a decision.

IV. WHAT IS WFDSS?

WFDSS is designed to be consistent with accepted models of risk-informed decision making.

WFDSS is a web based system that allows users to acquire information, analyze that
information, apply that information to inform their decision and gain situational awareness, then
to archive the decision and the associated documentation. To accomplish this, WFDSS
maximizes the use of appropriately-based deliberation as well as analysis. It is an iterative,
information-goal directed process.

Risk–informed decision making - requires two distinct but linked processes:

1. Analysis:
o Rigorous, replicable methods to provide information about factual questions.
o Brings new information into the process – informs deliberation.

2. Deliberation:
o Discussion, reflection, and persuasion to communicate, raise, and collectively
consider issues, increase understanding, and facilitate substantive decisions.
o Brings new insights, questions, and problem formulations – frames analysis.

Examples of decision making at this level involve developing a strategic alternative and
objectives for a wildfire incident; consider a range of values, hazards and probabilities and focus
on longer time periods. They are usually completed at least once, but may require revision,
adjustment or a completely new decision as the incident evolves and conditions change.

V. YOUR ROLE IN WFDSS

As an IMT you may be asked to provide input to develop, amend, or implement the WFDSS
decision. Knowledge and understanding of the risk decision processes will be critical.
Type I IMT’s are inherently involved in longer duration events where risks, values, costs, and
probability of success all must be weighed in developing management strategies. Without your
understanding of these processes and involvement in the strategic planning process relevant
data may be missed. While the team may have been delegated authority to manage the
incident, wildfire decisions are inherently complex, and decisions made from a single
perspective and single base of knowledge without supplemental input cannot hope to capture
and address that complexity.

Try to gauge the local unit’s capability early on. Watch for issues, unrecognized risks or
inadequate risk assessment. Are there political concerns, cooperator feedback, issues raised on
IC conference calls? WFDSS should help drive communications with Agency Administrator’s
and local unit personnel. The IMT should not take on the Agency Administrator’s responsibilities

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for WFDSS, it is important that the IMT work together with the Agency administrator to outline a
course of action.

Examples of WFDSS responsibilities that may be delegated to an IMT.

 Updating or uploading fire perimeters

 Providing input to update the Periodic Assessment, input to development of Management

Action Points (MAPs), input for modifying the course of action, updates or estimates to
incident costs.
 Ordering or managing of staff to provide additional assessment such as running fire
behavior models and/or completing long-term assessments.

On large, complex wildfires the Strategic Operational Planner (SOPL) position may be assigned
to the Incident Management Team to work with the Operations and Planning Sections in
developing a long-term course of action. SOPL’s are specifically trained in developing long-term
plans for wildland fires, and are useful on any wildland fire lasting more than three days
regardless of the incident’s strategic objectives (protection and/or resource benefit).

It is essential that you understand the decision and operate within its guidelines as it truly
represents the unit’s management strategy and should be the reference with which you manage
the incident. It is important to understand that in some cases a WFDSS decisions may be
ongoing when the team assumes command of the incident and the team must make tactical
decisions based on the unit’s management strategy.

VI. ELEMENTS OF WFDSS

WFDSS is designed to include models and tools to analyze and assess the incident. The
outputs can then be used to support the decision and assist in driving strategies and future
tactics. WFDSS contains,

Information
Purpose: Documents the initial and continuing fire situation, and provides required information
to complete administrative fire reporting. Information includes: Incident Name, Point of Origin,
Unique Fire Identifier, Fire Code, Fire Perimeter / Incident Size, Discovery Date/Time,
Containment Date/Time, Controlled Date/Time, Out Date, Landscape Data Source, Geographic
Area, Responsible Unit at Point of Origin, Incident Cause, and Jurisdictional Agency at Point of
Origin.

Situation
Purpose: Provides situational and risk assessment information to support strategic decisions
and development of course of action. Information on fire weather, features, values, fire danger,
and more can be accessed. The situation map enables visual Information evaluation. The
information obtained here can help assess whether the pre-planned initial response is accurate
or if additional planning is needed for the fire.

Objectives
Purpose: Defines objectives as stated in Land, Resource, and Fire Management Plans and lists
specific management and incident requirements that will frame and influence strategic decisions
as well as tactical plan development and implementation . This information is loaded prior to the

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fire season as provided in the LRMP and FMPs. If spatially enabled, this list will be reflective of
the fire location and the relevant plan information.
The Objectives tab also lists specific management and incident requirements that will frame and
influence strategic decisions and tactical implementation.

Course of Action
Purpose: Defines a specific course of action ranging from a pre-planned initial response to an
individualized response for a specific situation. Specificity varies with fire complexity and can
include a defined planning area, management actions, resource commitments, and costs for the
fire duration.

Validation
Purpose: Provides a review of the Situation, Objectives, and Course of Action to ensure that
Objectives can be met, and in the event they cannot be met, the Validation guides the
development of a new Course of Action.

Decision Summary
Purpose: Documents the response decision, the rationale for that decision, and stipulates the
timeframe for revisiting and reassessing the decision.

Periodic Assessment
Purpose: Provides a process to periodically review the current decision, response, and
accomplishments to evaluate effectiveness and confirm accuracy or, if needed, indicate
progression to a higher response level and associated planning activities.

Reports
Purpose: Enables you to create three types of reports for your incidents. These reports are
useful for conducting inbriefs and other meetings, as well as for preparing after action reviews
and post-fire reclamation plans.

VII. WFDSS SUPPOIRT TOOLS AND RESOURCES

Numerous models and tools are available within WFDSS to analyze and assess the incident.
The various outputs can then be used to support the WFDSS decision.

Models in WFDSS
 Automated Basic Fire Behavior (BASIC*)
 Automated Short Term Fire Behavior (STFB*)
 Analyst Assisted Basic Fire Behavior (BASIC)
 Analyst Assisted Short Term Fire Behavior (STFB)
 Near Term Fire Behavior (NTFB)
 Fire Spread Probability (FSPro)
 Stratified Cost Index (SCI)
 Wildland Fire Air Quality Tools Smoke Models

Tools in WFDSS
 Wildland Fire Risk & Complexity Assessment
 Values Inventory

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  Values at Risk (associated with FSPro)
 KMZ downloads
o Incident KMZ
o Analysis KMZ
o Pending Incident KMZ
 Map Capture
 Fire Danger Graphs
 Weather forecasts

Map Pages: Situation & Analysis

WFDSS has a Situation map and an Analysis map which function similarly. Things you can do:
 Download shapefiles for modeling***
 Upload shapes for modeling-ignition, barrier, landscape mask***
 Draw shapes for modeling- ignition, barrier, landscape mask ***
 Draw an Extent for your analysis
 Query underlying LANDFIRE data
 View values
 View Fire Danger Rating Graphs
 View Fire Weather Forecasts
 View Significant Fire Potential
 View Strategic Objectives
 View Smoke Dispersion
 Map Capture for decision support

Situation Map only:

 Run Automated BASIC and Automated STFB models

Analysis tab only:

 View Landscape
 Edit Landscape

*See “BFB (Automated)” and “STFB (Automated)” Automated fire behavior models can be run
by anyone granted incident privileges. The automated versions select fuels, weather and wind
for the user with few options for editing this data or which weather stations are used. The user
has less ability to refine the model inputs.

***See “About Shapes” in WFDSS help for more detail about drawing, uploading and
downloading shapes: http://wfdss.usgs.gov/wfdss_help/WFDSSHelp_About_Shapes.html

VIII. STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL USES OF WFDSS

 Unified command – when to bring in additional jurisdictions: FSPro and Near Term fire
spread can be overlaid with jurisdictions and current fire perimeter can demonstrate if or
how soon the fire may reach additional jurisdictions.

 Evacuation planning and protection prioritization: FSPro and Near Term fire spread
overlaid with structure layer can indicate the likely hood or how soon the fire may reach
structures.

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  MAPs: FSPro and Near Term fire spread overlaid with Management Action Points
(MAP’s) can indicate the likely hood or how soon the fire may reach a given MAP.

 Smoke: These tools can provide site-specific, time-specific smoke forecasts that can be
used for public information, road/traffic management, and airport issues.

 Wind Ninja: Provides expected wind speed and direction (given gradient wind forecasts)
at a specific location.

o Firing operations: Ground personnel can use this information during tactical
operations to avoid surprises associated with wind shifts.

o Vulnerable portions of fireline: Channeling and acceleration of surface winds in

complex terrain can indicate areas of fire line that may pose problems.

 Retardant Use (USFS only): Retardant Avoidance layer can be used in developing
tactical plans to identify retardant avoidance zones.

 Wilderness Issues: The Wilderness layer can be used in conjunction with other layers
and tools such as FSPro and Near Term fire spread to determine the likely hood or how
soon tactics or resources may need to be modified for wilderness.

WFDSS User Roles and Incident Privileges

User Roles within WFDSS correspond to permissions which allow users to perform certain tasks
within the application, such as creating an incident or conducting fire behavior analysis.
User Roles are: Viewer, Dispatcher, Author, Data Manager, Fire Behavior Specialist,
Geographic Editor, and Super Analyst. User roles can be granted in WFDSS Training without
granting those same roles in Production.

Incident privileges are assigned at the time of (and are specific to) an incident. These privileges
allow you to Own, Edit, Review, or Approve decision content. Modifying or uploading any data to
the decision should be coordinated with the local unit or the individual responsible for
maintaining the WFDSS decision.

Training aids are available on the WFDSS site on the Training tab.
http://wfdss.usgs.gov/wfdss/WFDSS_Training.shtml To help users become familiar with
navigating in the program WFDSS 101 series is an excellent source for learning how to use
WFDSS.

Exercise

Review the Wesley 2012 WFDSS Decision look at the various decision elements. Determine if
the elements are adequate and if sufficient information is provided to guide an Incident
Management Team in managing this fire. It is recommended that you access the Wesley 2012
incident in the production site on WFDSS http://wfdss.usgs.gov/wfdss/WFDSS_Home.shtml
After signing into WFDSS, click on the Incidents tab. Using the Incident List Filter, type in
“Wesley” in the Incident Name box and “2012” in the Incident Year box and click Find Incidents.

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Click on the radio button next to Wesley, then View Information. Click on the Situation tab to
view the incident map. If the various elements are not visible they can be activated from the left
Map Layers menu. The Objectives tab can be found at the top of the page in the second row of
tabs.
The Wesley_092212_1214_Decision PDF decision may be used if access to WFDSS is not
available.

IX. SUMMARY

Management of wildland fire represents one of the most complex and highest risk activities in
land management. Decision support and its contributions to decision-making are vital to fire
management success. Decision support tools range from subjective information to quantitative
long-term analysis processes and provide information to decision-makers. These tools and
processes incorporate science and technology to facilitate decision making based on the best
available information.

Decision support gives managers the ability to reduce the amount of uncertainty surrounding the
fire, understand the amount of difficulty that could be encountered during management and
possible outcomes, develop management strategies and operational tactics, and provide a
common understanding and clearer explanation of the situation.

Your understanding of and input to the decision analysis can be key in the success of managing
an incident and providing for firefighter safety.