Power system Planning and operation

Load forecasting

By: Dr.S.Bala, FECE

Associate Professor
Jan 2025
 What is the power system planning?
 Power system planning is a critical process for ensuring the
reliable, efficient, and economical delivery of electrical energy from
generation sources to consumers

 It involves analyzing, designing, and developing strategies

for the expansion and operation of power systems over both
short-term and long-term horizons.

 This planning is essential to accommodate future demand

growth, improve grid stability, and integrate renewable energy
sources in a way that minimizes disruptions and optimizes
resource use.

 Power system planning encompasses various interconnected

stages that address the generation, transmission,
distribution, and storage of electrical energy.
Conti…
 It considers a variety of factors such as energy demand
forecasting, resource availability, economic viability, and
environmental impact.

 Key Components of Power System Planning

 Demand Forecasting:

 Purpose: Predict the future electrical load based on historical

usage patterns, economic growth, and demographic factors.

 Types: Short-term, Medium-term, and Long-term forecasts

 Importance: Helps determine the required capacity for

generation and transmission systems to meet demand.
Conti…
 Generation Planning:

 Purpose: Decides the optimal combination of power plants

(thermal, hydro, nuclear, renewable) to meet demand.

Factors Considered: Fuel

availability, Capital costs., Efficiency
of power plants, Environmental
impact (emissions, land use, etc.).

 Objective: Ensure a mix of

reliable, cost-effective, and
environmentally sustainable
generation sources.
Conti…
 Transmission Planning

 Purpose: Design and develop the transmission network to

reliably deliver power from generators to consumers over
long distances.
Considerations
 Grid topology: How to layout the transmission lines.

 Voltage levels: To minimize transmission losses and ensure

efficient power delivery.

 Interconnections: Linking multiple regions or countries for

improved power reliability.
 Objective: Ensure robust, scalable, and fault-tolerant
transmission infrastructure.
Conti…
 Distribution Planning:
 Purpose: Ensure that the power generated is reliably
distributed to end-users, including residential, commercial,
and industrial consumers.
Considerations
 Load balancing: Distribute power efficiently across different
areas.
 Voltage levels: To minimize transmission losses and ensure
efficient power delivery.
 Capacity expansion: Accommodate future demand increases.

 Quality of service: Minimize voltage fluctuations and power

outages.
Conti…
 Distribution Planning:
 Purpose: Ensure that the power generated is reliably distributed to
end-users, including residential, commercial, and industrial consumers.

Considerations
 Load balancing: Distribute power efficiently across different areas.

 Voltage levels: To minimize transmission losses and ensure efficient

power delivery.

 Capacity expansion: Accommodate future demand increases.

 Quality of service: Minimize voltage fluctuations and power outages.

 Objective: Provide high-quality service while minimizing losses and

costs.
Conti…

 Renewable Energy Integration:

 Purpose: Incorporate renewable

energy sources (solar, wind, etc.)
into the power grid to reduce
reliance on fossil fuels.

Challenges

 Intermittency of renewable generation

 Storage to balance supply-demand fluctuations.

 Grid stability with high renewable penetration

 Objective: Achieve a cleaner, more sustainable energy mix while

maintaining system reliability
Conti…

 Energy Storage Planning

 Purpose: Design energy storage solutions

(batteries, pumped hydro, compressed air,
etc.) to store excess energy for later use.

 Role: Helps stabilize the grid during periods

of high demand or low generation,
especially with variable renewable energy.

 Objective: Enhance system flexibility and reliability.

Conti…

 Economic and Environmental Planning

 Purpose: Ensure that the power system is

both economically viable and sustainable.

 Considerations

 Cost-benefit analysis for new generation,

transmission, and distribution assets.

 Environmental impact assessments to

minimize pollution, habitat disruption, and
other ecological concerns.

 Objective: Achieve a cost-effective system

that supports economic growth and
environmental sustainability.
 Power System Planning Process

 Data Collection and Analysis

 Collect historical data on power usage, load profiles, fuel

availability, etc.
 Analyze this data to predict future energy requirements and
system performance.

 Demand and Supply Forecasting

 Use mathematical models to forecast future energy demand

based on economic indicators, population growth, and
technological advancements.

 Evaluate the availability of energy resources to meet the

forecasted demand
Conti…

 Modeling the Grid System:

 Use computer models to simulate the operation of power
generation, transmission, and distribution networks.

 Assess how different variables (e.g., renewable integration,

fuel price changes) affect system performance.

 Scenario Analysis and Optimization

 Develop different future scenarios based on factors like

fuel price volatility, renewable energy growth, and
regulatory changes.

 Optimize the system design to minimize costs and

maximize reliability under each scenario
Conti…

 Implementation and Execution

 Once the plan is finalized, begin implementing the
necessary upgrades to the grid, including the construction
of new power plants, transmission lines, and storage
facilities.

 Monitoring and Updating

Continuously monitor system performance and update

the plan as new technologies emerge, demand shifts, or
environmental factors change.

 This is the process of power system planning. It demands the

Load forecasting
Power generation under construction in Ethiopia

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Planning new project in ethiopia

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Conti…

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17
 Challenges in power system planning

 Uncertainty in Demand: Forecasting future demand is

challenging due to changing lifestyles, economic fluctuations,
and the adoption of energy-efficient technologies.
 Integration of Renewable Energy: Renewable sources like
wind and solar have variable outputs, which introduces
uncertainty and instability in the grid. Balancing renewable
generation with conventional sources requires advanced
forecasting, grid management, and energy storage.
 Climate Change: Changes in weather patterns can affect the
reliability and predictability of renewable energy sources,
particularly hydroelectricity and wind energy.
 Environmental and Social Considerations: Power system
planners must account for environmental impacts (emissions,
wildlife preservation) and social concerns (land acquisition,
displacement, etc.).
Conti….

 Technological Advancement: Rapid advancements in energy

storage, smart grid technology, and renewable energy make it
challenging to keep up with the latest and most efficient
solutions.

 Conclusion

 Power system planning ensures reliable, efficient, and

sustainable electricity delivery, addressing challenges like
renewable energy integration and grid reliability

 It integrates advanced technologies and sustainable practices to

meet future energy demands effectively.
 Load forecasting

 Load forecasting is the process of predicting future electricity

demand based on historical data, weather patterns, and other
influencing factors. Accurate load forecasting helps optimize power
generation, improve grid stability, and ensure cost-effective energy
distribution.

 Key points
Load forecasting is crucial for anticipating future electricity demand,
enabling efficient resource allocation and grid management."

 Accurate load forecasting helps utilities plan for peak demand,

reduce operational costs, and ensure system reliability."

 By analyzing historical data and external factors, load

forecasting provides valuable insights for power generation and
distribution."
Conti…

 Key points

Effective load forecasting ensures that energy systems can

respond dynamically to changing consumption patterns and
environmental conditions."

 Forecasting electricity demand allows utilities to optimize their

infrastructure investments and minimize energy wastage

 Need of load forecasting

 Energy optimization
 Cost reduction
 Grid stability
 Demand management
 Resource planning
 Methods of load forecasting

1 Time Series Method

Regression Analysis
2
Exponential Smoothing
3

Load Profiling
4
Grey Model
5
Support Vector Machines (SVM)
6

Fuzzy Logic
7

Neutral Network
8

Monte Carlo Simulation

9
 Load Forecast – Time of Day Load Variation
10
Peak Demand 9.5
9 9
8.5
8
Shoulder Demand 8 8 8 8
7.5
7 7 6.85 7 7
6.5 6.5
6 6 6 6 6 6
5.5
5.2 5.25
5 5 5 5

2
Base Load Demand
1

0
00:0001:0002:0003:0004:0005:0006:0007:0008:0009:0010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0016:0017:0018:0019:0020:0021:0022:0023:0024:00
Load in MW Time of the Day ----→

23
4
Load Forecast – Weekly Load Movement/Holiday

24
 Time series Method

 Time Series Method in load forecasting involves analyzing

historical data (past load patterns) to predict future energy
demand.
 It assumes that past trends and patterns in the data will
continue into the future, making it a widely used method for
short-term forecasting.
 Example data
 Step for time series method

 Data Collection: Gather historical load data over a

1
period (daily, weekly, or monthly).

 Trend Analysis: Identify any underlying trends

2 (increasing or decreasing) in the load data.

 Seasonality Detection: Recognize seasonal patterns

3 (e.g., higher load in summer or winter).

 Decomposition: Decompose the data into trend,

4 seasonal, and residual components.

 Modeling: Use statistical models like Moving average,

5 ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) to
predict future load.
 Problem on load forecasting
Days Load in Mw
 Problem Statement: Electricity demand
fluctuates daily due to various factors like 1 100
weather, industry usage, and household 2 105
consumption. Accurately predicting future
load helps in efficient power distribution, 3 98
reducing costs, and preventing 4 110
blackouts. One common method for short- 5 115
term load forecasting is the Moving
Average Method. 6 120
7 118
 Objective: Given the electricity load data 8 125
for the past 15 days, we will use the 3-day
Moving Average (MA) method to forecast 9 130
the load for the 16th day. Give data in the 10 128
table 11 132

 Why this need? Prevents power shortages 12 138

or overloads, Reduces unnecessary power 13 140
production, Saves operational costs by 14 145
predicting demand, Helps power
companies schedule maintenance. 15 148
16 ?
Days Load in 3-Day Moving Average MA of 3days load in MW
Mw Calculation
1 100 - -
2 105 - -
3 98 - -
4 110 100+105+98/3 101.00
5 115 105+98+110/3 104.33
6 120 98+110+115/3 107.67
7 118 110+115+120/3 115.00
8 125 115+120+118/3 117.67
9 130 120+118+125/3 121.00
10 128 118+125+130/3 124.33
11 132 125+130+128/3 127.67
12 138 130+128+132/3 130.00
13 140 128+132+138/3 132.67
14 145 132+138+140/3 136.67
15 148 138+140+145/3 141.00
16 ?
Conti…

Final answer: The predicted electricity load for Day 16 using

the 3-day Moving Average method is 144.33 MW
2. Problem Statement: We have the past 15 days of Days Load in
electricity load (MW), and we want to forecast the Mw(Xt)
load for Day 16 using Holt’s Linear Trend Method 1 100
(Double Exponential Smoothing).
2 105
3 98
4 110
5 115
6 120
7 118
8 125
9 130
10 128
11 132
12 138
13 140
14 145
15 148
16 ?
Thank you
2. Generation planning

Dr.S.BALA 36
 Generation of Electrical Energy

SOURCE OF ENERGY
1. Sun
2. wind
3. Water
4. Fuels (coal)
5. Nuclear energy
For example
Chemical energy of a fuel (coal) can be used to produce
steam at high temperature.
Fig 1. Block diagram of steam
The steam is fed to a prime mover which may be a steam plant
engine (or) a steam turbine.

Turbine converts heat energy of steam into mechanical

energy which is further converted into electrical energy by
the alternator.

Similarly, other forms of energy can be converted into

electrical energy by employing suitable machinery and
equipment
Dr.S.BALA 37
Thermal Station

It consists of
1. Coal and ash handling
plant
2. Steam generating plant
a. Boiler
b. Super heater
c. Economizer
d. Air pre – heater
3. Steam turbine
4. Alternator
5. Feed water
6. Cooling arrangement

Fig 2. Over all structure of thermal power station

Dr.S.BALA 38
Thermal Station

Dr.S.BALA 39
 Conti…
The steam turbine drives the alternator which converts mechanical energy of the turbine into
electrical energy.

 This type of power station is suitable where coal and water are available in abundance.

COAL AND ASH HANDLING

Coal is transported to the power station by road or train.

Stored in coal storage plant.

From storage plant, coal is delivered to the coal handling plant where it is pulverized(crush
into small).

Ash from burnt coals are removed and delivered to the ash storage plant for disposal.

A 100MW station operating at 50% load factor may burn about 20000tons of coal per month.

 And ash produced may be 10% to 15% of coal fired i.e 2000 to 3000 tons.

 In fact, in a thermal station, about 50% to 60% of the total operating cost consists of fuel
purchasing and its handling.

Dr.S.BALA 40
Conti….
STEAM GENERATING PLANT
It consists of
1.Boiler 2. Super heater 3. Economizer 4. Air-preheated
Boiler
 It is used to convert water into steam at high and pressure.
 The flue gases from the boiler make journey through super heater, economizer, air-pre-
heater and are finally exhausted to atmosphere through the chimney .
Super heater
It will remove wet present in the steam from boiler.
 Its temperature is more than boiling point of water.
It have two benefits
1. Increasing overall efficiency
2. Too much condensation in the last stages of turbine is avoided(cause blade corrosion).

Dr.S.BALA 41
Conti….
Economizer
An economizer is essentially a feed water heater and derives heat from the flue gases for
this purpose.

 The feed water is fed to the economizer before supplying to the boiler.

The economizer extracts a part of heat of flue gases to increase the feed water
temperature.
Air-pre heater
 An air pre heater increases the temperature of the air supplied for coal burning by
deriving heat from flue gases.

 Air is drawn from the temperature by a forced draught fan and is passed through air pre-
heater before supplying to the boiler furnace.

 The air pre-heater extracts heat from flue gases and increases the temperature of air used
for coal combustion.
Its benefits: 1.Increasing efficiency, 2. Increasing steam capacity per square meter

Dr.S.BALA 42
Conti…
Steam Turbine
 The dry steam fed to turbine
 Mechanical made turbine rotate
 Turbine and generator coupled,(Converts mechanical to electrical energy).
 Then passed to condenser, which condenses the exhausted steam by means of
cold water circulation.
Alternator
 The alternator converts mechanical energy of turbine into electrical.
The electrical output from the alternator is delivered to the bus bars through
transformer, circuit breakers and isolators.

Dr.S.BALA 43
 Cooling Arrangements

In order to increase efficiency of the plant, the steam exhausted from the turbine is
condensed by means of condenser.
Water is drawn from river, canal , lake circulated through the condenser.
The circulating water takes up the heat of the exhausted steam and itself becomes hot.
This hot water coming out from the condenser is discharged at a suitable location
down the river.
 Incase of scarcity of water , cooling towers are used

Dr.S.BALA 44
 Choice of Site for Steam Power Stations
1. Supply fuel:
To reduce transportation fuels
2. Availability of water:
As huge amount of water is required for the condenser, therefore, such a plant should be
located at the bank of a river.
3. Transportation facilities
A modern steam power station often requires the transportation of material and machinery,
therefore, adequate transportation facilities must exist i.e the plant should be well connected to
other parts of the country by rail, road etc.
4. Cost and type of land
The steam power station should be located at a place where land is cheap and further
extension, if necessary, is possible. Moreover, the bearing capacity of the ground should be
adequate so that heavy equipment could be installed.
5. Nearness to load centers
In order to reduce transmission cost, the plant should be located near the centre of the load.
6. Distance from populated area
As huge amount of coal is burnt in a steam power station, therefore, smoke and fumes
pollute the surrounding area. This necessitates that the plant should be located at a considerable
distance from the populated areas.

Dr.S.BALA 45
Advantages
1. The fuel (i.e coal) used is quite cheap
2. Less initial cost as compared to other generating stations
3. It can be installed at any place irrespective of the existence of coal.
4. The coal can be transported to the site of the plant by rail (or) road.
5. It requires less space as compared to the hydroelectric power station.
6. The cost of generation is lesser than that of the diesel power station.

Demerits
1. It pollute the atmosphere due to the production of large amount of smoke and fumes.
2. It is costlier in running cost as compared to hydroelectric plant.

Dr.S.BALA 46
EFFICIENCY OF STEAM POWER PLANT
KEY POINTS
 Over all efficiency less than 29%.
Main Reasons
1. A huge amount of heat lost in the condenser
2. Heat losses occur various stages of the plant.
The heat loss cannot be avoided, it is because heat energy cannot be converted into
mechanical energy without temperature difference.
The greater the temperature difference, greater is the heat energy converted into
mechanical energy.
 overall efficiency is 30% , it means that if 100% calories of heat is supplied by coal
combustion, then mechanical energy equivalent of 30% calories will be available at the
turbine shaft and rest is lost.
 Nearly 50% of energy lost in condenser,

Dr.S.BALA 47
 Nuclear Power Plant

Fig . Clear Picture

Dr.S.BALA
of Nuclear Plant 48
 Nuclear Reactor
1. It is an apparatus in which nuclear fuel(U253 ) is subjected to nuclear
fission.
2. It controls the chain reaction that starts once fission is done.
3. If the chain reaction is not controlled, the results will be an explosion
due to the fast increase in the energy released.
4. A nuclear reactor is a cylindrical stout pressure vessel and houses fuel
rods of uranium, moderator and control rods.
5. The moderator consists of graphite rods which enclose the fuel rods.
6. The fuel rods constitute the fission material and release huge amount
of energy when bombarded with slow moving neutrons.
7. The moderator slows down the neutrons before they bombard the fuel
rods.
8. The control rods are of cadmium and are inserted into the reactor

Dr.S.BALA 49
 CONTROLLING OF CHAIN REACTION
 Cadmium is strong neutron absorber and thus
regulates the supply of neutrons for fission.

 When the control rods are pushed in deep enough,

they absorb most of fission neutrons.

 Therefore, by pulling out the control rods, power

of the nuclear reactor is increased, whereas by pushing
them in, it is reduced.

 In actual practice, the lowering or raising of

control rods is accomplished automatically according
to the requirements of load.
 Heat produced in the reactor is removed by the
coolant, generally a sodium metal
Fig 2 Chain Reaction

Dr.S.BALA 50
 Selection of Site for Nuclear Power Station

 Availability of water
As sufficient water is needed for cooling purpose (across river or sea side)
 Disposal of waste
1. Waste from nuclear plant generally radio active.
2. It should be disposal properly to avoid human hazards.
3. It should be buried in a deep trench or away from sea shore.
 Distance from populated area.
1.It should be away from populated area.
2. To avoid radio active radiations.
3. Dome is used in the plant to avoid spreading radio active in the wind.
 Transportation facilities
1. Near to site should have adequate transport facilities.
2. In order to transport heavy equipments during erection
3. Workers movements

Dr.S.BALA 51
 Schematic arrangement of hydro-electric
A pressure tunnel is taken off from the
reservoir and water brought to the valve house at
the start of the penstock.

 The valve house contains main sluice valves

and automatically isolating valves.

 The former controls the water flow to the

power house and the latter cuts off supply of
water when the penstock bursts.

 From the valve house, water is taken to water

turbine through a huge steel pipe known as
Here simply involves conversion of penstock.
hydraulic energy into electrical energy.
 The water turbine convert hydraulic energy
into mechanical energy. The turbine drives the
The dam is constructed across a river or
alternator which converts mechanical energy into
lake and water from the catchment area
electrical energy.
collects at the back of the dam to form a
reservoir.
Dr.S.BALA 52
Conti….
 A surge tank(open from top) is built just
before the valve house and protects the
penstock from bursting in case the turbine
gates suddenly close due to electrical load
being thrown off.

When the gates close, there is a sudden

stopping of water at the lower end of the
penstock and consequently the penstock can
burst like a paper log.

 The governor opens or closes the turbine

gates in accordance with the changes in
electrical load. If the electrical load increases,
the governor opens the turbine gates to allow
more water and vice-versa.
The surge tank absorbs this pressure swing
by increase I it

Dr.S.BALA 53
Work outs at separate sheets
THANK U

Dr.S.BALA 54