Voltage Stability
Voltage Stability
January 9, 2020.
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2963280
ABSTRACT Voltage stability has always been one of the most important concerns. As the increasing
integration of large-scale renewable energy sources in power systems, the correlation between load demands
and renewable energy systems becomes more and more complex and important for probabilistic voltage
stability. There are two significant issues for probabilistic voltage stability assessment: (i) how to choose
the reasonable power increment direction which determines the reliability of voltage stability assessment
when considering the actual operating characteristics of the power system; and (ii) how to obtain the samples
characterized with the specified distribution and the desired correlation. We propose methodologies to define
the reasonable power increment direction with theoretical proof. Moreover, power method transformation
combined with Latin hypercube sampling and twice-permutation technique is proposed for probabilistic
voltage stability assessment. Case studies with two modified IEEE test systems show that the proposed
method is accurate and efficient.
INDEX TERMS Correlation, Latin hypercube sampling, Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic voltage
stability, singular value decomposition, stochastic variables, twice-permutation.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. For more information, see http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
VOLUME 8, 2020 5407
J. Zhang et al.: Probabilistic Assessment Method for Voltage Stability Considering Large Scale Correlated Stochastic Variables
model is assumed as normal distribution to estimate voltage the line and bus VSIs [19]. The max load margin is always
stability [15]. Authors in [16] estimated voltage stability with adopted to evaluate power system voltage stability as it is an
a direction by predicting load-path. efficient index, which is convenient to be understood and easy
However, two issues are still not solved well based on to be used for operators [20]. Optimization based methods are
the previous literature. Firstly, the correlation between the popular to calculate the max load margin [21]. In this paper,
stochastic variables are ignored, which are more and more the model based on optimal power flow is adopted to calculate
complex and important for the probabilistic voltage sta- the max load margin. The optimization model is as follows,
bility analysis. Secondly, the probabilistic voltage stability which is a nonlinear optimal problem and the interior point
is studied without fully explaining the actual power incre- method is used for solving it.
ment direction. The stochastic variables and the correlation
between them are not carefully considered when choosing max λ (1.1)
X
the power increment direction. Under such circumstances, subject to : Vi Vj (Gij cos θij
the load margin assessment may not truly reflect the actual + Bij sin θij ) + PLi − PGi − PRi = 0 (1.2)
stochastic characteristics of the system and therefore cannot X
be effectively used to evaluate probabilistic voltage stability. Vi Vj (Gij sin θij − Bij cos θij )
In order to deal with these two problems, based on a reason- + QLi − QGi − QRi = 0 (1.3)
able power increment direction for generators and loads con- PGi = P0Gi + λPdGi (1.4)
sidering the stochastic variables and the correlation between
PLi = P0Li + λPdLi (1.5)
them, we propose the power method combined with Latin
hypercube sampling and twice-permutation technique (PLT) QLi = Q0Li + λQdLi (1.6)
in this paper. The power increment direction is proven in PGi,min ≤ PGi ≤ PGi,max (1.7)
theory that the actual stochastic characteristics of the power QGi,min ≤ QGi ≤ QGi,max (1.8)
system are maintained. The PLT realizes the nonlinear cor-
Vi,min ≤ Vi ≤ Vi,max (1.9)
relation matrix transformation between the real stochastic
variables and the standard normal variables, and obtains the Pij = Vi Vj (Gij cos θij + Bij sin θij ) − tij Gij Vi2
samples of large scale input stochastic variables with desired (1.10)
correlation coefficients. 1
Qij = Vi Vj (Gij sin θij −Bij cos θij )+(tij − )Bij Vi2
The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Models of 2
typical stochastic sources and assessment of load margin are (1.11)
introduced in Section II. The method used to generate the P2ij + Q2ij ≤ Sij,max
2
(1.12)
samples of the stochastic variables with desired correlation
is proposed in Section III. The performances of the proposed In the optimization model above, the objective is to
method are studied with a modified IEEE 14-bus system maximize the load margin λ while satisfying power
and a modified IEEE 118-bus system in Section IV. Finally, flow constraints (1.2)-(1.3) and other operating con-
Section V concludes the paper. straints (1.4)-(1.12). PGi and QGi are the active power and
reactive power of traditional generator at bus i respectively.
PLi and QLi are the active power and reactive power of the
II. PROBABILISTIC VOLTAGE STABILITY MODEL
load at bus i respectively. PRi and QRi are the active power
A. STOCHASTIC SOURCES
and reactive power of the renewable energy source at bus
There are more and more stochastic sources in power systems
i respectively. P0Gi , P0Li and Q0Li are the base power of the
than before. Modeling of the stochastic characteristic and the
traditional generator and load at bus i respectively. Vi is the
correlation between the sources is essential for probabilistic
voltage of bus i. θij is the phase angle difference between bus
voltage stability assessment. Generally, the wind generation,
i and bus j, Gij and Bij are the conductance and susceptance
the solar generation and the load are described as PQ buses
of the line connecting the bus i and bus j respectively. Pij and
and the power factor is fixed. The active power of the wind
Qij are the active and reactive power flow from bus i to bus
generation, PW , is decided by the wind speed modeled as
j. tij is the transformation ratio of line from bus i to bus j.
the Weibull distribution, the active power of the photovoltaic
In this optimal model, the renewable energy sources keep
generation, PPV , is typically modeled as Beta distribution,
without power increment due to their intermittent outputs.
and the active power of the load, PL , is commonly modeled
While the powers of traditional generators and loads increase
as normal distribution [17], [18]. The correlation matrix, R,
with load margin λ and the power increment direction of PdGi ,
is symmetric.
PdLi , QdLi . As illustrated in Fig. 1, the load margin is sensitive
to the power increment direction. Different power increment
B. VOLTAGE STABILITY MODEL directions of generator and load power lead to different load
The index of load margin is one kind of overall voltage margins.
stability indices (VSIs), and in general the accuracy of the The actual operating characteristics of the power sys-
overall voltage stability indices (VSIs) is better than that of tem need to be considered to determine the reasonable
polynomial coefficient obtained by solving equations with m where P, E and R∗ satisfy SVD equation (8). Q, D and RS
associated moments of Yi as shown below. satisfy SVD equation (9). RS is the correlation matrix of
Z Z Xm samples S.
E[Yim ] = Zim Yi dZi = Zim cir Zir dZi (4) 1
1 0
r=0 R∗ = PEP0 = PE 2 PE 2 (8)
0
where E[Yim ] is the
mth-order moment of the stochastic vari- 1
RS = QDQ0 = QD 2 QD 2
1
(9)
able Yi , which can be calculated when the marginal distri-
bution or the samples of the stochastic variable are given. Permutating each row of S according to matrix S∗ , a sample
In this paper m is set as 5 and the simplifying equations are matrix Z with the same rank correlation matrix to that of
referenced in [32]. matrix S∗ is generated [34]. Then the correlation matrix of
When samples of the correlated non-normal stochastic Z is close to R∗ .
variable Xi with correlation matrix R are desired, the interme- Finally the stochastic samples X with approximate desired
diate correlation matrix R∗ of the standard normal variables correlation matrix R is calculated by using (2) and (3) with
Zi with the form in (5) must be calculated first. The equations substituting Z. Each column in the sample matrix X forms
about each nondiagonal correlation coefficient rij in R and its one set of samples to be used as inputs to the deterministic
corresponding intermediate correlation coefficient rij∗ in R∗ max load margin (1).
are built in [32].
∗ ∗
1 r12 · · · r1n C. PROBABILISTIC VOLTAGE STABILITY ASSESSMENT
r∗ ∗ METHOD
21 1 · · · r2n
R∗ = . . . (5)
.. .. .
··· .
Once the stochastic samples with specified distribution and
∗ ∗ desired correlation are obtained, the probabilistic voltage sta-
rn1 rn2 ··· 1
bility assessment can be carried out by repeatedly determin-
B. SAMPLING AND PERMUTATION istic calculating. Then the probability characteristics of max
load margin can be obtained by statistics. The flowchart of the
In order to improve the probabilistic voltage stability assess-
probabilistic voltage stability assessment method is shown
ment efficiency, the samples of the n stochastic variables with
in Fig. 2. The corresponding calculating steps are below.
a size of k shown in (6) can be obtained by LHS method.
Step 1: Input cumulative distribution function of each
s11 s12 · · · s1k stochastic variable and the desired correlation matrix R.
s21 s22 · · · s2k Step 2: Generate n×k sample matrix S by LHS.
S= . .. .. (6)
.. Step 3: Calculate S∗ by using (7).
. ··· .
Step 4: Obtain Z by permutating S according to S∗ .
sn1 sn2 · · · snk
Step 5: Calculate samples X by using (2) and (3).
The quality and accuracy of the probability analysis solu- Step 6: Solve deterministic max load margin (1) repeatedly
tions can be affected by the correlation coefficients between with all stochastic samples X.
the stochastic variables. Therefore, the samples for proba- Step 7: Calculate the probability characteristics of max
bilistic voltage stability assessment must have the desired load margin results by statistics.
correlation coefficients. Cholesky decomposition based per- The following mean square error index of the correlation
mutation method is always adopted due to its less calculating matrix is used to measure the statistics accuracy of the sam-
cost. However, there must be two assumptions to be satis- ples.
fied. The first assumption is that samples S is independent, n
and the second assumption is that the correlation matrix of 1 X
ρcorr = 2 (rij − rijx )2 (10)
stochastic variables is positive definite [33]. In fact, the inde- n
i,j=1
pendence assumption of initial samples S generated by LHS
is always violated [26], and the desired correlation matrix where rij is the ith row and the jth column element of the
is not positive definite sometimes especially when there desired correlation matrix, rijx is the ith row and the jth column
are large scale stochastic variables in power systems [27]. element of the correlation matrix of the samples, and n is the
Therefore, the twice-permutation technique in [29] is used in total number of the stochastic variables.
this paper. The twice-permutation technique can decorrelate The relative errors of means and standard deviations are
initial samples generated by LHS and handle with the desired adopted in (11) and (12). They are used to measure the
correlation matrix, which even is non-positive definite. statistics accuracy of the max load margin.
The twice-permutation technique is described in (7).
µa − µs
εµ = × 100% (11)
∗
S1 1 0 µa
S∗ = ... = PE 2 Ŝ = PE 2
1 −1
1
QD 2 S (7) σa − σs
∗ εσ = × 100% (12)
Sn σa
5410 VOLUME 8, 2020
J. Zhang et al.: Probabilistic Assessment Method for Voltage Stability Considering Large Scale Correlated Stochastic Variables
where m is the total number of tests. µρcorr , µεµ and µεσ are
the means of the average errors of m tests, respectively. σρcorr ,
σεµ and σεσ are the standard deviations of average errors of
m tests, respectively.
FIGURE 2. Flowchart of the probabilistic voltage stability assessment
method.
IV. SIMULATION ANALYSIS
where the µa and σa are the accurate mean and standard In order to investigate the performance of the proposed prob-
deviation of the max load margin respectively, which are abilistic voltage stability assessment method, studies on two
obtained from MCS with SRS of a large enough sample size. modified IEEE test systems are explored. Matlab is used and
µs and σs are the mean and standard deviation of the max load the codes are performed with 1.60GHz CPU.
margin obtained by the method shown in Fig. 2.
Due to the random sampling process, error indices of multi- A. THE MODIFIED IEEE 14-BUS SYSTEM
ple tests are adopted to evaluate the steadiness of the proposed The standard IEEE 14-bus system is show in [35]. For the
method as below. modified test system, two wind farms are connected to bus
m 4 and bus 5 and two photovoltaic plants are connected to bus
1X
µρcorr = ρcorr (i) (13) 9 and bus 10 respectively. The power factor of each wind farm
m
i=1 is set as 0.95 and that of each photovoltaic plant is set as 1.0.
m
1 X The thermal limit of lines is set to be 100 MVA. Lower and
µεµ = εµ (i) (14)
m upper bounds of bus voltage are set as 0.8 p.u. and 1.2 p.u.,
i=1
m respectively.
1 X
The detail parameters of the wind farms and the photo-
µεσ = εσ (i) (15)
m voltaic plants are given in Table 1.
i=1
v The Details of the load parameters are shown in Table 2 The
u m
u1 X reactive power of load is determined by the fixed power
σρcorr =t (ρcorr (i) − µρcorr )2 (16)
m factor.
i=1
v There are 15 stochastic variables in total in this case. And
u m the correlation matrix of the stochastic variables is as the same
u1 X
σεµ = t (εµ (i) − µεµ )2 (17) in [29] and the corresponding intermediate correlation matrix
m
i=1 with power method transformation is non-positive definite.
v
u
u1 X m The stochastic variables on the buses connected directly are
σεσ =t (εσ (i) − µεσ )2 (18) assumed dependent. The correlation coefficients between dif-
m ferent types of variables are all considered.
i=1
FIGURE 4. Error indices of 100 tests for max load margin (µεµ and µεσ ).
PST and Nataf. The same conclusions can also be drawn from
the error indices with sample size 1500 given in Table 3.
The simulation results show that power method trans-
formation combined with Latin hypercube sampling and
twice-permutation technique can address the correlations
FIGURE 5. Error indices of 100 tests for max load margin (σεµ and σεσ ).
between the input stochastic variables and provide more
accurate results stably, even when the correlation matrix is
not positive definite. In addition, the consuming time of the
twice-permutation for 14-bus system and 118-bus system
are 0.035s and 0.167s respectively, and consuming time of
the once-permutation for 14-bus system and 118-bus system
are 0.031s and 0.161s respectively. The twice-permutation
technique is efficient.
V. CONCLUSION
In this paper, a reasonable power increment direction of
generator and load power is proposed for probabilistic volt-
age stability assessment. With the proposed direction the
actual operating characteristics of the power system are main-
tained from the viewpoint of the correlation between stochas-
tic variables. In order to obtain the samples characterized
with the specified distribution and the desired correlation
between large scale stochastic variables for probabilistic volt-
age stability assessment, a method based on power method
transformation combined with Latin hypercube sampling and
twice-permutation is proposed. The power method transfor-
mation realizes the nonlinear correlation matrix transforma-
tion between the real stochastic variables and the standard
FIGURE 6. Cumulative distribution and probability density of max load
margins. normal variables. The twice-permutation technique decorre-
lates initial samples and handles with the desired correlation
matrix, which even is non-positive definite. The method is
small error of the correlation matrix shows that the adopted tested with modified IEEE 14-bus and modified IEEE 118-
power increment direction reflects the correlation between bus systems. The simulation results show that the proposed
the stochastic variables and shows the actual operating char- method is valid and feasible.
acteristics of the power system.
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GANG YAO received the M.D. degree from KE MENG (Member, IEEE) received the Ph.D.
Guizhou University, Guiyang, Guizhou, China, degree from the University of Queensland,
in 2011. He is currently with Guizhou Power Grid Brisbane, QLD, Australia, in 2009. He is currently
Company. with the School of Electrical Engineering and
Telecommunications, University of New South
Wales.
PEIJIA YU received the M.D. degree from the XIANGPING CHEN received the Ph.D. degree in
Dalian Jiaotong University, Dalian, Liaoning, electronic and electrical engineering from the Uni-
China, in 2011. She is currently with the School versity of Newcastle upon Tyne, U.K., in 2013. She
of Computer Science and Technology, Guizhou is currently an Associate Professor with the School
University. of Electrical Engineering, Guizhou University.
GUOJIANG XIONG received the Ph.D. degree ZHAOYANG DONG (Fellow, IEEE) received the
from the Huazhong University of Science and Ph.D. degree in electrical engineering from The
Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China, in 2015. He is University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia,
currently with the School of Electrical Engineer- in 1999. He is currently a Professor with the
ing, Guizhou University. School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommu-
nications, University of New South Wales.