NED UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING

TECHNOLOGY

ASSGINMENT
COURSE NAME : Differential Equation
DEPARTMENT : PHYSICS
SEMESTER : 02
BATCH:2024

GROUP MEMBERS
SYED MUHAMMAD IZHAN (PH-026)
SYED SAFFI HUSSAIN (PH-021)
ZAVIYAR ALI SHEIKH (PH-075)
MUHAMMAD MUBASHIR (PH-055)
MUHAMMMAD UMER (PH-056)
ZOHAB JAMIL (PH-034)
Differential Equations:
Research On Solar Flares:
INTRODUCTION TO SOLAR FLARES:

Solar flares are intense burst of radiation emanating from the

Sun atmosphere resulting in sudden release of energy. These
energetic events can significantly impact Earth's space
weather, affecting power grids, satellite operation and
communication systems. Huge Question arises! How this Solar
flare occurs and what causes them?,Well Major cause of solar
flares is Magnetic Reconnection where the opposite directed
Magnetic field lines break and reconnect converting magnetic
energy into kinetic and thermal energy. Interplay of these
phenomena of plasma flows, magnetic fields and energy
transport mechanism. Magnetic Reconnection typically occurs
in active regions of sun & near Sunspots mainly due to
presence of strong and complex magnetic field. Due to
reconnection of magnetic field in these areas lead to sudden
and intense energy released. To analyze and predict solar flare
behaviour scientists employ various mathematical models,
many which are grounded in differential equations. The result
of these equations leads physicists and scientists to evolution
of physical quantities over the time and space. Here from
physical quantities, we mean such as, Plasma and Magnetic
Fields.
Effects:
 Due to presence of Large Amount of UV and X-Rays, Heats
the upper atmosphere of Earth, Causes Disruption of
Radio Signals causing Communication Problems and GPS
Signaling.
 Intense Radiations and Harmful Particles from Flares
can destroy Satellites, causing havoc in Consumers of
Satellites communication.
 Solar flares are often followed by coronal mass
ejections (CMEs), which send charged particles toward
Earth.
  These can create geomagnetic storms that affect
electric power grids, possibly causing blackouts or
damaging transformers.

Scientists Thesis Work In Solar Flares:

1. Susan Lepri
Institue: University of Michigan
Role: Professor of Climate and Space Sciences and
Engineering; Director of the Space Physics Research
Laboratory.

Work: Susan Lepri led the development of Heavy Ion Sensor

(HIS) in Feb,2020 in European Space Agency Solar Orbiter.
Instrument plays a crucial role in understanding Solar Flares
dynamics and Solar energetic particles.

2. Varad Deshmukh
Institute: University of Colorado Boulder
Role: Computer Scientist
Work: By Utilizing Computational Topology and Geometry, Varad
Deshmukh research develops from novels features of Solar
Magnetogram images (X-Ray image of Sun Magnetic Fields
Showing Strength and Direction), enhancing the machine
learning models in forecasting solar flares.

3. Professor Muhammad Ayub Khan

Yousuf Zai
 Institute: Department of Physics, University of Karachi
  Research Focus: Professor Yousuf Zai has supervised
Ph.D. research in areas including the effects of solar flares
on ozone layer depletion and the dynamics of the
ionospheric region in Pakistan.
 Contribution: His work encompasses the study of solar
flare impacts on atmospheric and ionospheric conditions,
contributing to understanding space weather phenomena.

4. Naoto Nishizuka
Affiliation: National Institute of Information and
Communications Technology (NICT), Japan
Role: Solar Physicist

Work: She lead the development of Deep Flare Net, By Using the
Machine Learning and Deep Neural Networks, she made the
Solar Flare Prediction Model. By Analyzing the Data from Nasa
Solar Observatory, DEFN has significantly able to forecast M-
Class and C-Class Flares.

5. Dr Saifuddin Ahmed Jilani

Affiliation: Institute of Space and Planetary Astrophysics
(ISPA), University of Karachi

Research Focus: Dr. Jilani has conducted postdoctoral

research on supernova emissions and has expertise in
stochastic and wavelet analysis techniques.

Contribution: He co-authored a study titled "Stochastic

Modeling of Solar Flare Duration at Pakistan Atmospheric
Region," which investigates the statistical modeling of
solar flare durations using data from the Pakistan
atmospheric region.
Solar Physics Research at NEDUET
The Computational Astrophysics Research Lab at NEDUET
focuses on studying the Sun's surface features, magnetic fields,
and dynamic solar activities, including solar flares and coronal
mass ejections (CMEs).

 Analyzing solar magnetograms to understand magnetic

field structures.
 Modeling solar flare mechanisms using computational
methods.
 Investigating the impact of solar activities on Earth's
space weather.

For more details, you can visit their research area page:

MATHEMATICAL MODELING (Last 5 years):

2020

Fokker-Planck Particle Transport Modeling

 Type: Theoretical/Numerical
  Details: Solved the Fokker-Planck equation to simulate the
transport and interaction of flare-accelerated particles.
 Notable Work: to model electron transport in solar flares,
capturing key effects like collisions, synchrotron losses, and
magnetic mirroring to reproduce X-ray emission profiles.
 Key Features: Included magnetic mirroring, collisions, synchrotron
losses, and electric fields.
 Purpose: To model hard X-ray emissions and particle dynamics
during flares.

2021

Shape-Based Topological ML for Flare Forecasting

 Type: Machine Learning / Feature Engineering

 Details: Introduced topological data analysis to extract shape
descriptors from magneto-grams.
 Notable Work: Introduced a novel machine learning approach
using shape-based topological features from solar magneto-grams,
outperforming traditional physics-based attributes in solar flare
prediction.
 Key Features: Using shape-based topological features derived
from solar magneto-grams, leveraging multi-layer perceptron neural
networks, and achieving superior flare prediction accuracy
compared to traditional physics-based methods.
 Purpose: to improve solar flare prediction by using shape-based
topological features from solar magneto-grams, offering a more
effective alternative to traditional physics-based forecasting
methods.

2022

Video-Based Deep Learning with LRCNs

 Type: AI / Time-Series Modeling

 Details: Used Long-term Recurrent Convolutional Networks trained
on videos of active regions.
 Notable Work: Introduced a model combining CNNs and LSTMs for
video-based tasks, enabling accurate spatial-temporal analysis for
applications like action recognition and video classification.
 Key Features: LRCNs include combining CNNs for spatial
feature extraction with LSTMs for temporal sequence
modeling, enabling effective analysis of time-dependent visual
data such as videos.
 Purpose: Real-time forecasting of flare occurrence by learning
spatiotemporal patterns.

2023
Data-Constrained 3D Solar Flare Model

 Type: 3D MHD + Particle Simulation

 Details: Modeled particle acceleration and transport in a real C-
class flare using a validated 3D magnetic environment.
 Notable Work: Developed an evolving 3D model of the SOL2014-
02-16T064620 solar flare to quantify energy partitioning and
dynamics by integrating thermal and non-thermal electron
distributions over time.
 Key Features: Include realistic 3D magnetic topology, time-
evolving thermal and non-thermal electron distributions, integration
of observational data, and detailed modeling of energy release,
particle transport, and plasma heating during flare evolution.
 Purpose: To realistically simulate the evolution of solar flares by
integrating observational data with 3D magnetic and plasma
modeling, enabling accurate analysis of energy release, particle
dynamics, and chromospheric heating.

2024

Shallow Origin of the Solar Magnetic Dynamo

 Type: Global Simulation

 Details: NASA-funded models revealed that the solar magnetic field
likely originates closer to the surface than previously thought
(~20,000 miles).
 Notable Work: Revealed that the Sun’s magnetic field likely
originates much closer to the surface—within the top 5–10% of its
radius—challenging long-held beliefs that it forms deep in the solar
interior.
 Key Features: Include advanced fluid dynamics modeling,
identification of a shallow convective dynamo layer near the Sun’s
surface, and a significant shift from traditional tachocline-based
dynamo theories, offering new insights into magnetic field
generation and solar activity cycles.
 Purpose: To determine the true origin of the Sun’s magnetic field
by using advanced modeling to investigate whether it forms near
the surface rather than deep within, aiming to improve our
understanding of solar magnetic activity and space weather
prediction.

Differential Equation for Solar Flare and Its

Effects
1. What is a Solar Flare?
A solar flare is a sudden, intense burst of radiation coming from the Sun's atmosphere, often
associated with magnetic energy release near sunspots.

- Energy released: up to 10^25 J

- Duration: seconds to hours

- Impact: electromagnetic radiation, plasma, energetic particles; affects Earth's magnetosphere

2. Modeling Energy Release

We model the energy E(t) of a flare decaying over time after the initial burst with a first-order
differential equation:

dE/dt = -kE(t)

Solving this separable equation:

dE/E = -k dt
ln|E| = -kt + C
E(t) = E0 * e^(-kt)

3. Impact on Earth's Magnetic Field

Let B(t) be the variation in Earth's magnetic field due to the flare. We model this as:

dB/dt = a * E(t) - b * B(t)

Substitute E(t) = E0 * e^(-kt):

dB/dt = a * E0 * e^(-kt) - b * B(t)

Solve using the integrating factor method with µ(t) = e^(bt):

e^(bt) * dB/dt + b * e^(bt) * B = a * E0 * e^((b-k)t)

d/dt[e^(bt) * B] = a * E0 * e^((b-k)t)
Integrating both sides:
e^(bt) * B = (a * E0 / (b-k)) * e^((b-k)t) + C
B(t) = (a * E0 / (b-k)) * e^(-kt) + C * e^(-bt)

4. Final Equation
[ B(t) = (a * E0 / (b - k)) * e^(-kt) + C * e^(-bt) ]
Solar flares are a major contributor to space weather—conditions in space that affect Earth and its
technological systems. When a solar flare occurs, it can trigger a cascade of physical processes with
the following effects:

1. Geomagnetic Storms
Caused when charged particles from solar flares and accompanying coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
interact with Earth's magnetosphere.

These storms distort Earth's magnetic field and can last hours to days.

Effects:
- Satellite drag increases due to atmospheric heating.
- Disruption of power grids and transformer damage.

2. Radiation Hazards
High-energy X-rays and UV radiation reach Earth in minutes, affecting the ionosphere.

Can be dangerous to astronauts, high-altitude pilots, and passengers on polar flights.

Spacecraft electronics may experience single-event upsets (SEUs).

3. Communication Blackouts
Solar flares increase ionization in the D-layer of the ionosphere, absorbing high-frequency (HF) radio
signals.

Results in loss of shortwave radio communication, particularly on the sunlit side of Earth.

GPS signals can be degraded or delayed.

4. Satellite and Spacecraft Malfunctions

Energetic particles can penetrate spacecraft shielding.

Effects include:
- Data corruption
- System resets
- Solar panel degradation

5. Auroras
Energetic particles excite atmospheric gases near polar regions, causing spectacular auroral displays.

Typically intensified during geomagnetic storms caused by strong solar flares.

IMPACT AND NOVELTY OF THE

PROBLEM FOR PAKISTANI COMMUNITY
The increasing frequency and intensity of solar flares during Solar Cycle
25 have raised global concerns about their impacts on technological
infrastructure and daily life. For Pakistan, a country with growing reliance
on satellite-based navigation, power grids, and telecommunications, these
solar phenomena present unique challenges and vulnerabilities. Recent
alerts from the Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Commission
(SUPARCO) highlight the risks of geomagnetic storms to satellites, power
infrastructure, and communication networks, underscoring the urgency of
understanding these impacts. While solar flares are a universal threat,
Pakistan’s specific socioeconomic context, technological preparedness,
and geographic location amplify both the novelty and severity of the
problem. This report examines the multifaceted implications of solar flares
for Pakistani society, emphasizing the intersection of space weather
science, infrastructure resilience, and community adaptation.

SUPARCO’s Role in Space Weather

Monitoring and Early Warnings

Historical Development of Space Weather Research in Pakistan

Pakistan’s engagement with space weather monitoring dates to the
1970s, with the installation of ionosondes and magnetometers to study
ionospheric and geomagnetic variations. Over decades, SUPARCO
expanded its capabilities, integrating advanced tools such as Digisonde
systems, geomagnetic observatories, and GNSS receivers to track total
electron content (TEC) and scintillations. By 2017, SUPARCO established
the Pakistan Space Weather Center (PSWC), enabling real-time data
collection and collaboration with international agencies like the
International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI). This progression reflects
Pakistan’s longstanding, though underrecognized, commitment to
understanding space weather-a critical foundation for addressing solar
flare impacts today.

SUPARCO’s 2024 Solar Storm Alert and Its

Implications
In August 2024, SUPARCO issued a rare public warning about three
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) en route to Earth, including an X1.3-class
solar flare-the most intense category. This alert emphasized risks to
satellites, power grids, and space stations, marking a pivotal moment in
Pakistan’s approach to space weather communication. The novelty lies
not only in the severity of the event but also in SUPARCO’s proactive
dissemination of information, a shift from earlier decades when such data
remained confined to academic circles. The warning aimed to mitigate
disruptions to cellular networks, GPS services, and emergency response
systems, which are increasingly vital for Pakistan’s urban and rural
populations.

Impacts on Critical Infrastructure and Daily Life

Vulnerability of Power Grids to
Geomagnetically Induced Currents
Solar flares generate geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) that flow
through power transmission lines, potentially overheating transformers
and causing cascading failures. For Pakistan, where power grids already
face challenges from load-shedding and aging infrastructure, a severe
solar storm could exacerbate outages. The 1989 Quebec blackout-a nine-
hour collapse triggered by a solar storm-serves as a cautionary
example. In Pakistan, similar damage would disrupt households,
industries, and healthcare facilities, with repair costs straining an already
fragile economy. Rural areas, which rely on decentralized grids, might
experience prolonged outages due to limited access to replacement
components.

Satellite Degradation and Communication

Disruptions
Pakistan’s communication infrastructure depends heavily on satellites for
television broadcasting, internet connectivity, and disaster management.
Solar flares ionize the upper atmosphere, increasing signal attenuation
and scintillations that degrade satellite-to-ground transmissions. During
the March 2024 solar flare, systems like EGNOS mitigated GPS
degradation in Europe, but Pakistan lacks an equivalent satellite-based
augmentation system (SBAS), leaving its GNSS services more
vulnerable. SUPARCO’s satellites, such as PRSS-1 and PakTES-1A, face
elevated risks of radiation damage and orbital decay due to
thermospheric expansion during storms. This orbital decay shortens
satellite lifespans, necessitating costly replacements-a burden for a nation
with limited space funding.

Navigation and Transportation Challenges

GPS disruptions pose acute risks for Pakistan’s transportation sectors.
Aviation, maritime navigation, and ride-hailing services like Careem and
Uber rely on precise positioning data. During the August 2024 storm,
SUPARCO warned of potential GPS signal loss, which could delay flights,
misroute shipments at Gwadar Port, and strand commuters. Farmers
using GPS-guided tractors for precision agriculture would also face
setbacks, affecting crop yields and food security. These cascading effects
illustrate how space weather permeates daily life, disproportionately
impacting communities with limited analog alternatives.

Socioeconomic and Health-Related

Consequences
Economic Losses from Prolonged
Infrastructure Downtime
The financial ramifications of a severe solar storm could be catastrophic
for Pakistan. A multi-day power grid failure would halt manufacturing,
disrupt supply chains, and paralyze digital transactions-a growing pillar of
Pakistan’s economy. Small businesses, which constitute over 90% of
enterprises, lack the resources to adopt surge protectors or backup
systems, making them particularly vulnerable. Additionally, satellite-
dependent sectors like meteorology and disaster management would
struggle to operate, hindering responses to concurrent crises such as
floods or earthquakes.

Public Health Risks and Communication

Gaps
Solar flare-induced radio blackouts could isolate rural communities, where
cellular networks are the primary means of emergency
communication. During natural disasters, this isolation complicates rescue
operations and medical assistance. Furthermore, prolonged exposure to
GICs in power lines might elevate electromagnetic field (EMF) levels,
though research on long-term health effects remains inconclusive. The
psychological toll of extended outages-stress, anxiety, and
misinformation-adds another layer of risk, particularly in densely
populated cities like Karachi and Lahore.

Novelty of the Challenge in Pakistan’s Context

Unique Geographic and Infrastructural
Susceptibility
Pakistan’s geographic location near the equatorial ionization anomaly
(EIA) amplifies ionospheric disturbances during solar storms. The EIA’s
dynamic plasma density variations exacerbate GPS signal scintillations, a
problem less pronounced in mid-latitude regions. Additionally, Pakistan’s
power grid lacks the shielding and grounding technologies employed in
countries like Canada or Sweden, leaving transformers more exposed to
GICs. This combination of natural and infrastructural factors creates a
unique risk profile that demands tailored mitigation strategies.

Emerging Awareness and Institutional

Preparedness
While SUPARCO’s monitoring capabilities are advanced, public awareness
of space weather risks remains minimal. Unlike earthquake drills or
monsoon preparedness campaigns, solar storm responses are absent from
public discourse. This gap highlights the novelty of the threat: it is a
technologically complex, invisible hazard requiring interdisciplinary
coordination. Initiatives like the 2024 alert signal progress, but translating
warnings into actionable community plans remains a challenge.

Comparative Analysis with Global Mitigation

Strategies
Lessons from International SBAS Systems
and Grid Protections
Countries like those in the European Union use SBAS (e.g., EGNOS) to
enhance GPS accuracy during solar flares, reducing navigation errors from
10 meters to under 1 meter. Pakistan’s absence of such a system
underscores a critical vulnerability. Adopting regional SBAS infrastructure,
possibly through partnerships with China’s BeiDou or India’s GAGAN, could
bolster resilience. Similarly, transformer neutral grounding and series
capacitors-techniques used in Scandinavia-could mitigate GIC risks in
Pakistan’s grid.

The Role of International Collaboration and

Funding
SUPARCO’s participation in the International Space Weather Initiative
(ISWI) and workshops with the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)
demonstrates Pakistan’s commitment to global knowledge
sharing. However, funding constraints limit the deployment of advanced
technologies like distributed magnetometer networks or AI-driven space
weather models. International grants or public-private partnerships could
bridge this gap, aligning with COPUOS priorities for space weather
services.

Recommendations for Policy and Community

Engagement
Strengthening Early Warning Systems and
Public Outreach
SUPARCO should expand its public outreach by integrating space weather
alerts into existing disaster management frameworks, such as the
National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). Mobile apps providing
real-time flare updates and preparedness tips could empower citizens to
safeguard electronics and backup critical data. Schools and universities
could incorporate space weather modules into STEM curricula, fostering
long-term societal resilience.

Infrastructure Hardening and Technological

Investments
Prioritizing grid resilience through transformer retrofitting and
decentralized renewable energy systems would reduce dependence on
centralized power lines. Launching a domestic SBAS program, potentially
with collaboration from the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization
(APSCO), would enhance GPS reliability. Additionally, incentivizing private
sector investment in radiation-hardened satellite components could
protect Pakistan’s growing space industry.

Conclusion
Solar flares represent a nascent yet escalating challenge for Pakistan,
intertwining advanced space science with grassroots vulnerabilities. The
2024 SUPARCO alerts and historical monitoring efforts underscore the
nation’s proactive stance, but systemic gaps in infrastructure, public
awareness, and technological adoption persist. Addressing these issues
requires a dual focus: leveraging international partnerships for technical
solutions and fostering community-level adaptation strategies. As Solar
Cycle 25 approaches its peak, Pakistan’s ability to harmonize its space
capabilities with societal needs will determine its resilience in the face of
this silent celestial threat.
REFERENCE

Pakistan Today. (2024, August 10). Satellites, power grids, space stations at
risk as solar storm surrounds Earth. RETRIEVED FROM

Satellites, power grids, space stations ‘at risk’ as solar storm surrounds Earth.
RETRIVED FROM

Solar storm could lead to disruption of communication services.

RETRIEVED FROM

EGNOS offers increased resiliency against peak solar flares.

RETRIEVED FROM