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Basic Probabilit

The document outlines fundamental probability concepts and formulas, including the probability of an event, complement rule, addition rule, and conditional probability. It also covers key topics such as Bayes' theorem, expected value, variance, and the distinction between mutually exclusive and independent events. These principles serve as the foundation for analyzing uncertainty and making informed decisions based on data.

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Ratnadeep Bose
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1 views6 pages

Basic Probabilit

The document outlines fundamental probability concepts and formulas, including the probability of an event, complement rule, addition rule, and conditional probability. It also covers key topics such as Bayes' theorem, expected value, variance, and the distinction between mutually exclusive and independent events. These principles serve as the foundation for analyzing uncertainty and making informed decisions based on data.

Uploaded by

Ratnadeep Bose
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Basic Probability Concepts and Formulas

1. Probability of an Event:
- For equally likely outcomes:

Number of favorable outcomes


P ( E )=
Total number of possibleoutcomes

2. Complement Rule:

P ( E′ )=1 − P ( E )

3. Addition Rule:
- General:

P ( A ∪ B )=P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( A ∩ B )
- Mutually Exclusive Events:

P ( A ∪ B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )

4. Conditional Probability:

P( A ∩ B)
P ( A ∣B )= (if P ( B ) >0 )
P (B )

5. Multiplication Rule:
- General:
P ( A ∩B )=P ( A ∣B ) P ( B )=P ( B ∣ A ) P ( A )
- Independent Events:

P ( A ∩B )=P ( A ) P ( B )

6. Independence:

Events A and B are independent if:

P ( A ∩B )=P ( A ) P ( B ) or equivalently P ( A ∣ B ) =P ( A )

7. Bayes' Theorem:
P( B ∣ A) P ( A )
P ( A ∣B )=
P (B )

8. Law of Total Probability:

For a partition B1 , B2 , … , Bn :

n
P ( A )=∑ P ( A ∣ Bi ) P ( B i )
i =1

9. Expected Value (Mean):

E [X ]=∑ x i P ( x i ) (discrete)

10. Variance:
Var ( X )=E[ ( X − μ )2]=∑ ( x i − μ )2 P ( x i )

11. Standard Deviation:

σ =√ Var ( X )

12. Combinations:

C ( n , k )= ( nk )= k ! ( nn−! k ) !
13. Permutations:

n!
P ( n , k )=
(n − k )!

14. Probability Axioms (Kolmogorov):


- Non-negativity:
P ( E ) ≥0
- Normalization:
P ( S )=1
- Additivity: For mutually exclusive
E1 , E2 ,…

P ( ⋃i E i )=∑ P ( Ei )
i

15. Odds:
- In favor of
P(E)
E:
1− P ( E )
- Against
1− P ( E )
E:
P(E)

Key Notes:
- Mutually Exclusive vs. Independent: Mutually exclusive events cannot occur together (\( P(A \
cap B) = 0 \)), while independent events satisfy \( P(A \cap B) = P(A)P(B) \)).
- Law of Total Probability requires partitions to be mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
- Tree Diagrams and Venn Diagrams aid in visualizing probability relationships.
- Replacement vs. No Replacement: Affects independence in sequential experiments.

These formulas and concepts form the foundation for analyzing uncertainty and making data-
driven decisions.
Basic Probability Concepts and Formulas
1. Probability of an Event:

o For equally likely outcomes:


Number of favorable outcomes
P ( E )=
Total number of possible outcomes
2. Complement Rule: P ( E′ )=1 − P ( E )

3. Addition Rule:

o General:
P ( A ∪ B )=P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( A ∩ B )
o Mutually Exclusive Events:
P ( A ∪ B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )
P( A ∩ B)
4. Conditional Probability: P ( A ∣B )= (if P ( B ) >0 )
P (B )

5. Multiplication Rule:

o General:
P ( A ∩B )=P ( A ∣B ) P ( B )=P ( B ∣ A ) P ( A )
o Independent Events:
P ( A ∩B )=P ( A ) P ( B )
6. Independence:
Events A and B are independent if:
P ( A ∩B )=P ( A ) P ( B ) or equivalently P ( A ∣ B ) =P ( A )

P( B ∣ A) P ( A )
7. Bayes' Theorem: P ( A ∣B )=
P (B )

8. Law of Total Probability:


For a partition B1 , B2 , … , Bn:
n
P ( A )=∑ P ( A ∣ Bi ) P ( B i )
i =1

9. Expected Value (Mean):


E [X ]=∑ x i P ( x i ) (discrete)

10. Variance:
2 2
Var ( X )=E[ ( X − μ ) ]=∑ ( x i − μ ) P ( x i )

11. Standard Deviation:


σ =√ Var ( X )

12. Combinations:
n
C ( n , k )= =() n!
k k !(n − k )!

13. Permutations:
n!
P ( n , k )=
(n − k )!

14. Probability Axioms (Kolmogorov):

o Non-negativity: P ( E ) ≥0
o Normalization: P ( S )=1
o Additivity: For mutually exclusive E1 , E2 ,… ,
P ( ⋃i E i )=∑ P ( Ei )
i

15. Odds:

P(E)
o In favor of E :
1− P ( E )
1− P ( E )
o Against E :
P(E)
Key Notes:
 Mutually Exclusive vs. Independent: Mutually exclusive events cannot occur together (
P ( A ∩B )=0), while independent events satisfy P ( A ∩B )=P ( A ) P ( B )).
 Law of Total Probability requires partitions to be mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
 Tree Diagrams and Venn Diagrams aid in visualizing probability relationships.
 Replacement vs. No Replacement: Affects independence in sequential experiments.
These formulas and concepts form the foundation for analyzing uncertainty and making data-
driven decisions.

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