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Modeling and Simulation 8

The modelling process consists of three main steps: examining the problem, designing a model, and providing recommendations. Verification and validation are crucial to ensure the model accurately represents the actual system, involving techniques such as comparing results and testing assumptions. Additionally, methods for validating both existing systems and first-time models are discussed, emphasizing the importance of statistical tests and sensitivity analysis.

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2 views18 pages

Modeling and Simulation 8

The modelling process consists of three main steps: examining the problem, designing a model, and providing recommendations. Verification and validation are crucial to ensure the model accurately represents the actual system, involving techniques such as comparing results and testing assumptions. Additionally, methods for validating both existing systems and first-time models are discussed, emphasizing the importance of statistical tests and sensitivity analysis.

Uploaded by

Farhan Ali
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Modelling Process

Lecture 8
Modelling process includes the following steps:
• Step 1 − Examine the problem. In this stage,
we must understand the problem and choose
its classification accordingly, such as
deterministic or stochastic.
• Step 2 − Design a model. In this stage, we
have to perform the following simple tasks
which help us design a model −
• Collect data as per the system behavior and
future requirements.
• Analyze the system features, its assumptions
and necessary actions to be taken to make the
model successful.
• Determine the variable names, functions, its
units, relationships, and their applications
used in the model.
• Solve the model using a suitable technique
and verify the result using verification
methods. Next, validate the result.
• Prepare a report which includes results,
interpretations, conclusion, and suggestions.
• Step 3 − Provide recommendations after
completing the entire process related to the
model. It includes investment, resources,
algorithms, techniques, etc.
Verification & Validation
• One of the real problems that the simulation
analyst faces is to validate the model. The
simulation model is valid only if the model is
an accurate representation of the actual
system, else it is invalid.
Validation and verification are the two steps in
any simulation project to validate a model:
• Validation is the process of comparing two
results. In this process, we need to compare
the representation of a conceptual model to
the real system. If the comparison is true, then
it is valid, else invalid.
• Verification is the process of comparing two
or more results to ensure its accuracy. In this
process, we have to compare the model’s
implementation and its associated data with
the developer's conceptual description and
specifications.
Verification & Validation Techniques
There are various techniques used to perform
Verification & Validation of Simulation Model.
Following are some of the common techniques :
Techniques to Perform Verification of
Simulation Model
Following are the ways to perform verification of
simulation model −
• By using programming skills to write and debug the
program in sub-programs.
• By using “Structured Walk-through” policy in which
more than one person is to read the program.
• By tracing the intermediate results and comparing
them with observed outcomes.
• By checking the simulation model output using various
input combinations.
• By comparing final simulation result with analytic
results.
Techniques to Perform Validation of
Simulation Model
Step 1 − Design a model with high validity. This
can be achieved using the following steps −
• The model must be discussed with the system
experts while designing.
• The model must interact with the client
throughout the process.
• The output must supervised by system
experts.
Step 2 − Test the model at assumptions data.
This can be achieved by applying the
assumption data into the model and testing it
quantitatively. Sensitive analysis can also be
performed to observe the effect of change in the
result when significant changes are made in the
input data.
Step 3 − Determine the representative output of
the Simulation model. This can be achieved
using the following steps −
• Determine how close is the simulation output
with the real system output.
• Comparison can be performed using the
Turing Test. It presents the data in the system
format, which can be explained by experts
only.
• Statistical method can be used for compare
the model output with the real system output.
Model Data Comparison with Real Data

After model development, we have to perform


comparison of its output data with real system
data. Following are the two approaches to
perform this comparison.
• Validating the Existing System
• Validating the First Time Model
Validating the Existing System
In this approach, we use real-world inputs of the model to
compare its output with that of the real-world inputs of the
real system. This process of validation is straightforward,
however, it may present some difficulties when carried out,
such as if the output is to be compared to average length,
waiting time, idle time, etc. it can be compared using
statistical tests and hypothesis testing. Some of the statistical
tests are chi-square test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Cramer-
von Mises test, and the Moments test.
Validating the First Time Model
Consider we have to describe a proposed system
which doesn’t exist at the present nor has
existed in the past. Therefore, there is no
historical data available to compare its
performance with. Hence, we have to use a
hypothetical system based on assumptions.
Following useful pointers will help in making it efficient:
• Subsystem Validity − A model itself may not have any
existing system to compare it with, but it may consist of a
known subsystem. Each of that validity can be tested
separately.
• Internal Validity − A model with high degree of internal
variance will be rejected as a stochastic system with high
variance due to its internal processes will hide the
changes in the output due to input changes.
• Sensitivity Analysis − It provides the information about
the sensitive parameter in the system to which we need
to pay higher attention.
• Face Validity − When the model performs on opposite
logics, then it should be rejected even if it behaves like
the real system.
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