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Strategic Thinking for Complex Problem Solving

ENGI/LEAD 545 – Spring 2017
Tuesday 1–3:50 PM, RZR 205

Objectives
Employers ask that you be excellent not just in your discipline but also in general problem solving.1
How are you training yourself for that?
This course shows how to become a better strategic thinker, preparing you to solve complex, ill-defined,
non-immediate (CIDNI) problems. It is project based, so you’ll bring a problem that will become your
project for the course and a case study for the group. You’ll apply the concepts covered in the course to
your problem, structuring its resolution as the course advances, and presenting your progress to the
class for continuous feedback.
By working on case studies that are outside of your area of expertise, you will learn to move away from
the technicalities of your discipline to focus on transferrable skills—logic, innovation, rigorous
formulation of hypotheses, clarity of thinking, bias identification and management, etc.—that will be
the backbone of your strategic thinking abilities. It is an objective of the course that you learn how to
leverage these transferrable skills to approach problems in fields you know little about.
As such, the class composition is highly diverse, which has three major purposes:
• Facilitating system thinking by integrating problems in their larger contexts,
• Fostering the group’s creativity by approaching problems from different points of view, and
• Emulating work in “real” organizations, where we must interact with people with different profiles.
In addition the course promotes using an analytical approach to problem solving, where evidence-based
decision making is key.
Another objective of the course is for you to be able to explain your project to people who are not
subject matter experts. This usually requires you to reinforce your understanding of the problem,
gaining insight into its underlying structure.
A pivotal objective of the class is learning to leverage the collective skill set of the group and
contributing to it. As such, a high involvement in the class dynamic is essential.
Finally, I don’t want you to only learn about solving complex problems; rather, I want you to learn how
to solve problems. So you’ll learn by doing, applying the theory to your project and getting constructive
(yet merciless!) criticism from your peers and yours truly. You’ll probably end up working more in this
class than in most others but look at the bright side: 1. if you pick a project that is useful for another of
your classes or for your research, you’ll kill two birds with one stone, and 2. 1. no exams!
Because you will spend a lot of energy on your project, you should choose it wisely. As such, please

1 See, for instance, American Association of Universities (2013). It takes more than a major: Employer priorities
for college learning and student success.

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come discuss it with me. A good project is one that you would spend a lot of time on anyway (for
example, your thesis or dissertation) and/or that has a high pay off for you.

Instructor
Arnaud Chevallier, PhD
Associate Vice Provost
Rice University
6500 Main Street, MS-10, Houston, TX 77005
Office: (713) 348-4025
E-mail: [email protected]
Office location: Allen Center 330C

Learning outcomes
By the end of the course, you will be able to:
1. Frame the problem. You will learn how to single out the real problem in a given situation,
ensuring that you aren’t focusing on just a symptom or a less critical problem. You will also learn to
identify key stakeholders and decision makers, project parameters, and elements out of scope. Finally,
you will learn to summarize this information in a WHAT card.
2. Diagnose the problem. You will learn how to identify the root causes of the problem by building a
diagnostic issue map. You will learn how to structure the map, associate hypotheses which each
branch, design the analysis to test the hypotheses, identify the data needed to fuel the analysis,
gather that data, test the hypotheses, and conclude. You will also learn how to structure your
thinking in mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive (MECE) components and rank the
comparative insightfulness of competing frameworks.
3. Identify solutions. You will learn how to transition from the diagnosis to the active search for a
solution by building a solution issue map. You will learn how to structure the solution map—
understanding key similarities and differences with diagnostic issue maps—develop hypotheses, design
the analysis to test them, and test them. You will also learn about decision making: how to pick the
best solution, using decision matrices or other decision-making tools.
4. Execute the solution. You will learn how to use logic to communicate better—through an AV
presentation. Time permitting, we will also talk about how to use the other two components of
Aristotelian persuasion (reputation and emotions), basic concepts of project management and team
leadership, as well as the continuous evaluation of the solution’s performance once implemented.

Key characteristics
You will spend a lot of time on your project, so choose one that has a lot of value to you. A popular
choice with previous students is to work on your thesis or final project.
Each session is a mix of theory and case studies, with an emphasis on the latter. You will integrate the
theory in your project and present it periodically to the class for discussion.

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Class participation is key, as reflected in the grading structure. You are all expected to contribute to
discussions and help your classmates improve their projects—especially those in disciplines different
than your own. A significant part of the grade depends on how much you help others.
The reading material is due before the corresponding lecture. We’ll use my book, Strategic Thinking in
Complex Problem Solving, and other resources. To help you extract the relevant ‘so what?’ for you, at
the beginning of each class, you will hand in a one-page summary of the reading addressing: -1- Your
main take away and -2- Your reflection on how you are going to modify your current practice to include
what you’ve learned. This counts as part of the ‘participation in class’ grade.
We’ll spend most time in class reviewing the progress that you are making. We’ll do so either altogether
or in smaller groups. So your classmates will become pivotal drivers of your success (and vice versa). So
please seek the input of your classmates. Do it often and do it with different classmates.
Please realize that your ability to get up to speed on a colleague’s project—including one whose
discipline you know nothing about—is an essential leadership skill in the work place. So by helping your
classmates with their projects, you are developing a fundamental skill. You are also fishing for new
ideas: after each interaction, ask yourself how what you discussed might be applicable to your problem.
When handing in a deliverable, please submit a printout in class at the beginning of the session in
which it is due and upload as a PDF in OwlSpace.
At least five students must be enrolled for the course to be offered. The course has no prerequisites and
no exams. It’s worth three semester hours.

Course calendar

Date Topic Reading (to be done before) Deliverable (due at the

beginning of the class)
1 1/10 Course overview Syllabus
Develop the project charter
2 1/17 Frame the diagnostic (Chevallier 2016): Chapter 1, 2 Take away from reading
problem (Savransky 2002) Chapter 1

3 1/24 Develop a diagnostic issue (Chevallier 2016): Chapter 3 Take away from reading
map (Ness 2012) WHAT card
4 1/31 Develop a diagnostic issue (Platt 1964) Take away from reading
map (Fisk 1972) WHY card
5 2/7 Design a diagnostic (Chevallier 2016): Chapter 4 Take away from reading
analysis (Twardy 2010) WHY issue map
Conduct a diagnostic
analysis
6 2/14 Conduct a diagnostic (Nickerson 1998) Take away from reading
analysis (Klayman and Ha 1987)

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Date Topic Reading (to be done before) Deliverable (due at the

beginning of the class)
7 2/21 Prepare a report for (Chevallier 2016): Chapter 7 Take away from reading
diagnostic analysis (Garner and Alley 2013)
8 2/28 Present your report of (Chevallier 2016): Chapter 5 Take away from reading
diagnostic analysis (van Andel 1994) Report of diagnostic analysis
9 3/7 Frame the solution problem (Chevallier 2016): Chapter 6 Take away from reading
(Fischhoff and Chauvin 2011)
3/14 Spring break – no class
10 3/21 Develop a solution issue (Chevallier 2016): Chapter 8 Take away from reading
map (Axelrod 1984) Chapter 1, 2 HOW card
11 3/28 Design a solution analysis (Tversky and Kahneman 1974) Take away from reading

12 4/4 Conduct the solution (Boucher, Barnett et al. 2015) Take away from reading
analysis HOW issue map
13 4/11 Conduct the solution (Chevallier 2016): Chapter 9 Take away from reading
analysis
14 4/18 Present your report for Report of solution analysis
solution analysis

Additional reading
(Singer, Nielsen et al. 2012); (Polya 2008); (Minto 2009); Powerful-problem-solving.com;
Timvangelder.com; austhink.com; (Jones 1998); (Higgins 1994); (Ohmae 1982); (De Bono 1992);
(Zelazny 2004); (Zelazny 1996); http://www.vangeldermonk.com/improvingreasoning.html

Course grading

Value
towards final
grade
Class participation, including contributions to help
35%
others and comments on reading assignments
WHAT card 5%
WHY card 5%
Diagnostic issue map 10%
Report of diagnostic analysis 10%
HOW card 5%

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Solution issue map 10%

Solution hypotheses, analysis, and conclusions 10%
Final presentation and implementation plan 10%
Total 100%

No final exams.
I’ll use a numeric scale during the semester before converting to a letter scale using the following
correspondance:

Minimum
Grade
percent
A 90
B 80
C 70
D 60
F 50

Assignments that are turned in late receive a 1% penalty per late day.

Academic honor code

Students are responsible for maintaining the integrity of academic work at Rice. All students must
comply with the honor code and state so on each deliverable they hand in.
You can learn more about the Honor System at http://honor.rice.edu/

Disabilities
Any student with a documented disability needing academic adjustments or accommodations is
requested to speak with me during the first two weeks of class. All discussions will remain confidential.
Students with disabilities will need to also contact Disability Support Services on the first floor of Allen
Center (x5841 / [email protected]).

Others
Bring your laptop or tablet to class as it is easier to draw issue maps on those. If this is not possible,
bring your latest progress on a USB key and arrange with a classmate to be able to project from their
computer.
Consider acquiring a mapping software to develop issue maps. My personal choice is MindMaple: it’s
cheap ($10/year or a $5 one-time fee, depending on your platform; the lite version is even free) and it
does all that we need. A review of common packages is available here.
This syllabus reflects as closely as possible the course as it unfolds over each session. However
deliverables might change. Therefore don’t trust it blindly for due dates and lecture plans. Instead,

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ensure that you comply with assignments discussed in class. If you miss a class, it is your responsibility
to check on assignments due and hand them in time.
You are expected to come to class and participate actively. If you can’t make it to a session, please
inform me ahead of time. If you miss a session, ensure that you catch up on the material covered—and
the assignments—on time.
The class models typical interactions in the workplace. Therefore please display a professional attitude;
in particular be proactive and responsive.

Office hours
Thursdays 1 to 2pm in Allen Center 330C or by appointment (email me).

Bibliography
American Association of Universities (2013). It takes more than a major: Employer priorities for college
learning and student success.
Axelrod, R. M. (1984). The evolution of cooperation, Basic books.
Boucher, S., A. Barnett and N. Thomason (2015). Improving your reasoning, Melbourne Critical
Thinking Project.
Chevallier, A. (2016). Strategic Thinking in Complex Problem Solving. Oxford, UK, Oxford University
Press.
De Bono, E. (1992). Serious creativity: Using the power of lateral thinking to create new ideas. New
York, Harper Business.
Fischhoff, B. and C. Chauvin (2011). Collaboration. Intelligence analysis: Behavioral and social
scientific foundations, National Academies Press.
Fisk, C. E. (1972). "The Sino-Soviet border dispute: A comparison of the conventional and Bayesian
methods for intelligence warning." Studies in Intelligence 16(2): 53-62.
Garner, J. and M. Alley (2013). "How the design of presentation slides affects audience comprehension:
A case for the assertion–evidence approach." International Journal of Engineering Education
29(6): 1564-1579.
Higgins, J. M. (1994). 101 creative problem solving techniques: The handbook of new ideas for business,
New Management Publishing Company Florida.
Jones, M. D. (1998). The thinker's toolkit: 14 powerful techniques for problem solving, Random House
Digital, Inc.
Kahneman, D., D. Lovallo and O. Sibony (2011). "Before you make that big decision." Harvard
business review 89(6): 50-60.
Klayman, J. and Y.-W. Ha (1987). "Confirmation, disconfirmation, and information in hypothesis
testing." Psychological review 94(2): 211.
Minto, B. (2009). The pyramid principle: logic in writing and thinking, Pearson Education.

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Ness, R. B. (2012). "Tools for innovative thinking in epidemiology." American journal of epidemiology
175(8): 733-738.
Nickerson, R. S. (1998). "Confirmation bias: a ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises." Review of
General Psychology 2(2): 175.
Ohmae, K. (1982). The mind of the strategist, McGraw-Hill.
Oreskes, N., K. Shrader-Frechette and K. Belitz (1994). "Verification, validation, and confirmation of
numerical models in the earth sciences." Science 263(5147): 641-646.
Platt, J. R. (1964). "Strong inference." science 146(3642): 347-353.
Polya, G. (2008). How to solve it: A new aspect of mathematical method, Princeton University Press.
Savransky, S. D. (2002). Engineering of creativity: Introduction to TRIZ methodology of inventive
problem solving, CRC Press.
Singer, S. R., N. R. Nielsen and H. A. Schweingruber (2012). Discipline-based education research:
Understanding and improving learning in undergraduate science and engineering, National
Academies Press.
Tversky, A. and D. Kahneman (1974). "Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases." Science
185(4157): 1124-1131.
Twardy, C. (2010). "Argument maps improve critical thinking." Teaching Philosophy 27(2): 95-116.
van Andel, P. (1994). "Anatomy of the unsought finding. serendipity: Orgin, history, domains,
traditions, appearances, patterns and programmability." The British Journal for the Philosophy
of Science 45(2): 631-648.
Zelazny, G. (1996). Say it with charts, McGraw-Hill.
Zelazny, G. (2004). Say it with Presentations, Tata McGraw-Hill Education.

Additional reading:
(Oreskes, Shrader-Frechette et al. 1994)
(Kahneman, Lovallo et al. 2011)

Notes: Garner and Alley is probably one week too early.

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