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Comprehensive Probability Notes

The document provides a comprehensive overview of probability, covering its definition, types, key terms, and various concepts such as permutations, combinations, and distributions. It includes formulas, examples, and applications of probability in real-life scenarios. The conclusion emphasizes the importance of understanding probability for analyzing uncertainty and problem-solving.

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3 views4 pages

Comprehensive Probability Notes

The document provides a comprehensive overview of probability, covering its definition, types, key terms, and various concepts such as permutations, combinations, and distributions. It includes formulas, examples, and applications of probability in real-life scenarios. The conclusion emphasizes the importance of understanding probability for analyzing uncertainty and problem-solving.

Uploaded by

mayowaemmanuel275
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Comprehensive Notes on Probability

1. Meaning of Probability
Probability is a branch of mathematics that deals with the likelihood of occurrence of
events. It measures the chance that a particular event will occur, expressed as a number
between 0 and 1.

- 0 means the event will not occur


- 1 means the event will certainly occur
- 0.5 means the event is equally likely to occur or not

Formula:
P = Number of favorable outcomes / Total number of outcomes

Example: If a die is rolled once, the probability of getting a 4 is: P(4) = 1/6

2. Types of Probability
1. Theoretical Probability – Based on reasoning or known possible outcomes.
2. Experimental Probability – Based on actual experiments or trials.
3. Subjective Probability – Based on personal judgment or experience.

Examples:
- Theoretical: Probability of flipping a head on a fair coin is 1/2
- Experimental: If a coin is flipped 100 times and heads appears 45 times, P(H) = 45/100

3. Terms in Probability
- Experiment: An action that leads to one or more outcomes.
- Sample Space (S): Set of all possible outcomes.
- Event: A subset of the sample space.
- Favorable Outcome: Desired result from an experiment.
- Random Experiment: An experiment with uncertain outcomes.

4. Types of Events
1. Simple Event – A single outcome.
2. Compound Event – Combination of two or more simple events.
3. Independent Events – Occurrence of one does not affect the other.
4. Dependent Events – Occurrence of one affects the other.
5. Mutually Exclusive Events – Cannot happen at the same time.
6. Exhaustive Events – Cover all possible outcomes.
5. Permutation
Permutation refers to arrangements of objects in a specific order.

Formula:
nPr = n! / (n - r)!

Example: Arrange 3 out of 5 books: 5P3 = 5! / 2! = 60

Theorems on Permutations:
1. nPr = n! / (n - r)!
2. If objects are not distinct: n! / p!q!r!...
3. Circular permutation: (n - 1)!
4. Permutations with restrictions (e.g., specific positions)

Probability Example Using Permutations:


Find the probability of selecting 2 boys from 3 boys and 2 girls, and arranging them in a
row:
P = 3P2 / 5P2 = 6 / 20 = 3/10

6. Multiplication Rule
If two events A and B are independent, then:
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)

Example: Probability of getting a head on a coin and a 4 on a die:


P = 1/2 × 1/6 = 1/12

7. Combination
Combination refers to the selection of items without considering the order.

Formula:
nCr = n! / (r!(n - r)!)

Example: Choosing 2 students from 4: 4C2 = 6

Probability Example Using Combination: Selecting 2 girls from 3 boys and 4 girls:
P = 4C2 / 7C2 = 6 / 21 = 2/7

8. Conditional Probability
Probability of event A occurring given that event B has occurred.

Formula:
P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B)
Example: From a deck, if a card drawn is a face card, probability it's a king:
P(K|F) = (4/52) / (12/52) = 1/3

9. Probability Tree Diagram


A probability tree diagram lists outcomes of events step-by-step.

Steps:
1. Start with a node.
2. Draw branches for each outcome.
3. Add probabilities to each branch.
4. Multiply along each path.

Example: Tossing Two Coins


Each path (e.g., HH, HT) has probability: 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.25

10. Poisson Distribution


Used for number of events in fixed interval (time/space).

Formula:
P(X = x) = (e^-λ * λ^x) / x!
Where:
- λ: average number of events
- x: number of occurrences
- e ≈ 2.718

Example: 3 calls per minute. Find probability of 4 calls:


P(4) = (e^-3 * 3^4) / 4! ≈ 0.168

11. Random Variables and Distribution Functions


A random variable assigns a numerical value to outcomes of a random experiment.

- Discrete Random Variable: Takes finite/countable values


- Continuous Random Variable: Takes infinite/unmeasurable values

Distribution Function (CDF): Gives probability that random variable X ≤ x

Example: X = number of heads in 2 tosses: X can be 0, 1, or 2

12. Bernoulli Distribution


Used for experiments with only two outcomes: Success (1) or Failure (0).

Formula:
P(X = x) = p^x (1 - p)^(1 - x) for x = 0 or 1
Example: Tossing a coin:
- Success = Head (p = 0.5)
- P(1) = 0.5^1 * (1 - 0.5)^0 = 0.5

13. Binomial Distribution


Used for number of successes in n independent Bernoulli trials.

Formula:
P(X = x) = C(n, x) * p^x * (1 - p)^(n - x)

Mean: μ = np
Variance: σ² = np(1 - p)

Example: Tossing a coin 3 times (n = 3, p = 0.5)


P(2) = C(3, 2) * (0.5)^2 * (0.5)^1 = 3 * 0.25 * 0.5 = 0.375

14. Other Useful Subtopics


- Complementary Events: P(A') = 1 - P(A)
- Bayes' Theorem: Updates probability using new evidence
- Venn Diagrams: Illustrates event relationships visually
- Odds:
- In favor: P(A) / (1 - P(A))
- Against: (1 - P(A)) / P(A)

Conclusion
Probability is essential for analyzing uncertainty. Understanding its key principles,
formulas, and examples equips you for problem-solving in mathematics and real-life
applications.

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