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People have always migrated in search of better climatic conditions or in response to
environmental change. Today, this phenomenon takes on a whole new dimension, as climate
change progressively threatens traditional landscapes and livelihoods of entire communities.
Increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events, such as floods, hurricanes and
droughts, lead to significant population displacement every year on every continent. Every day
we hear and read about ‘environmental’ or ‘climate migrants’.
The Atlas of Environmental Migration is the first illustrated publication mapping environmental
migration, clarifying terminology and concepts, drawing a typology of migration related
to environment and climate change, describing the multiple factors at play, explaining the
challenges, and highlighting the opportunities related to this phenomenon. Through elaborate
maps, diagrams, illustrations and case studies from all over the world based on the most
updated international research findings, the Atlas guides the reader through this complex
phenomenon from the roots of environmental migration to governance.
Dina Ionesco is Head of the Migration, Environment and Climate Change Division at the
International Organization for Migration.
Daria Mokhnacheva works as a thematic specialist at the Migration, Environment and
Climate Change Division at the International Organization for Migration.
François Gemenne is the Executive Director of the Politics of the Earth Programme
at Sciences Po/USPC, and Senior Research Associate at the FNRS, University of Liège
(Hugo Observatory).
“Climate stresses and the degradation of resources and agriculture are major
drivers of migration in Africa, Asia, and other parts of the world. This Atlas
provides a balanced picture of how the mismanagement of the environment
can directly impact people’s lives. It highlights the importance of protecting
our environment thus reducing the risk of forced migration and how coherent
migration-based strategies can provide a lifeline to millions of people.”
Thomas L. Friedman, author and columnist, USA
O
ur era is experiencing an unprec- In 2014, some 220,000 migrants with All too often still, we forget that on
edented level of human mobility. irregular status crossed the Mediterra- a personal level, numerous factors
Of our planet’s 7 billion people, nean heading for Europe and in 2015, combine to influence the strategy of
more than 1 billion have moved either more than 1 million people followed this each individual, and that migration is all
within or outside of their country of same route – a record number compared but a mechanical response.
origin; namely one person in seven. to previous years. Sadly, the year 2015 And finally, all too often, we are unaware
This mobility is the result of a multi- also witnessed another record: that of the of migrants’ positive contributions to the
plicity of interrelated factors: poverty, number of lives lost – 3,772 in the Medi- economy of their departure or destina-
the search for a better life, the dispari- terranean and 5,393 worldwide. It should tion regions and countries, as well as of
ties between North and South, conflicts, not be forgotten that the phenomenon of the benefits of migration and the role that
labour needs, demographic explosion, migratory flows is global: they can occur migrants could play in climate change
and the digital revolution. But also – in the Gulf of Aden, in the Caribbean adaptation efforts.
which brings me to the goal of the Atlas of between Haiti and the south of Florida, My vision is of a world in which the poten-
Environmental Migration – environmental across the US–Mexican border, or in tial of migration is recognized and valued,
factors, particularly natural disasters and South Asia, to name but a few. but also of a world where those who do
climate change. Faced with this reality, it is no longer time not wish to migrate have the option
In 2015, more than 19 million people for sadness and regret; it is time to act. of staying in their regions and in their
were newly displaced within their coun- To do so, we must first better under- countries. Migration can be managed,
tries due to natural disasters, a figure that stand the complex links between human planned, facilitated and organized in an
does not even take slow environmental mobility, environment, and climate effective and respectful fashion. Poli-
degradation or drought into account. change. Then, we must debunk a certain cies to protect affected populations are
Human migration has always been number of misperceptions. as much a matter of prevention as of
linked to the environment, but polit- All too often, forced displacement is the ability to effectively manage migra-
ical awareness of the importance of this only mentioned when it arises because tion arising from environmental change.
factor is recent. We now know that the of natural disasters. Its human cost of We can, for instance, multiply legal
causes of the migratory crisis that the course remains shocking and much too migration channels; improve the flow of
world is currently experiencing include high, but it leads us to ignore all of the mobility via return or seasonal migration
phenomena such as climate change and other forms of mobility linked to slow programmes; and put in place temporary
its impact on soil degradation, the multi- degradation, and the lot of those who protection measures. IOM does not only
plication and intensification of sudden do not have sufficient means to resort to believe that migration is inevitable in light
events, desertification, water stress, and migration as a survival strategy. of demographic, social, economic and
recurrent drought. All too often, we neglect the internal political realities, but also that it is neces-
We also know that in the future, a signif- or inter-regional reality as well as the sary, and even desirable, for nations
icant number of people will be affected South–South dimension of this envi- to prosper, providing that it is carefully
by sea-level rise, coastal erosion, ocean ronmental migration and put forward managed and respects human rights.
acidification, and soil salinization, and that alarmist scenarios, which are barely Yet, environmental migration does not
migration will be one possible response. consistent with the reality of the situation. solely concern migration policies. It also
All of this adversity and the despera- Or indeed, conversely, we totally ignore has an impact on a large number of
tion that accompanies it lead individuals, the environmental dimension, which is other spheres, particularly development,
most often victims of criminal smug- extremely difficult to isolate due to the humanitarian action, disaster risk reduc-
gling networks, to migrate in dangerous fact that it is entangled with other causes, tion, urban and rural management poli-
conditions by crossing seas and deserts. for instance economic. cies, and, of course, climate policies, upon
I
would first like to congratulate the brutally dried, meaning that herds can become human again. The solutions to
authors of this Atlas of Environmental no longer feed, and milk is increasingly fight and adapt to climate change exist:
Migration. This contribution will help us less abundant. When it becomes impos- replace fossil fuels with eternally renew-
collectively to look differently at the situ- sible to feed their family, to live in secu- able energy from the sun, the wind, or
ation of those who have no other choice rity on the land of their ancestors, what water; restore degraded land by recul-
but to leave the land where they were other alternative do people have than to tivating it; preserve biodiversity in order
born. seek refuge elsewhere, in already over- to strengthen the resilience of places
A universal agreement, legally binding crowded capitals, or farther afield, most inhabited by human beings for so long;
the 195 States parties to the United often in the North, where you only have and facilitate migration to better adapt
Nations Framework Convention on to turn on a tap to get drinking water? and to reduce the pressure on fragile
Climate Change, is absolutely essential The social, economic, financial and ecosystems. All of this is within our grasp.
in order to limit temperature rise to no ecological crises that we are experi- It is today simply a matter of wanting and
more than 2oC by the end of the century. encing today are due to our genius, not having the courage to act. The year 2015
It is up to decision makers, and it is up to our powerlessness. Climate change is was a crucial one: it constituted a key
us all to make history if we do not want to very much the fruit of our way of life, of step in the process of two major series
have to suffer it. the economic model that arose from the of international negotiations: on devel-
Climate change is the ultimate injustice. Industrial Revolution at the end of the opment and on climate change. These
Its initial effects are already being felt and nineteenth century. Einstein said that issues must be addressed together. The
do not spare any region or continent in ‘perfection of means and confusion of challenge lying ahead is to allow a popu-
the world … But the consequences of ends seem to characterize our age’. As lation that has never been so large to
episodes of violent rainfall or prolonged the Pope highlighted in the ‘Laudato Si’ attain a quality of life without precedent.
drought, the dramatic effects of storms, Encyclical, it is up to us, believers or not,
hurricanes and typhoons, are not the to take care of our shared home. Both Nicolas Hulot
same for those living in the North and the Encyclical and the Islamic Declara- Special Envoy of the French President for the
South. And it is those who cannot take tion on Global Climate Change, adopted Protection of the Planet (2013–2016)
advantage of any of the progress that during the International Islamic Climate
has been made who are the powerless Change Symposium in August 2015 in
victims. Istanbul, stress the necessary abstemi-
Along with President Hollande, I visited ousness that we should adopt. Ever more
the Philippines where I discovered that religious leaders, scientists and intel-
after each new extreme climate episode lectuals are inviting us to build a world
– as we modestly describe them – the based on protection rather than preda-
population is always a little more desti- tion, on cooperation rather than compe-
tute, sinking each time into ever greater tition, on fair trade rather than free trade,
precariousness. Nor is Africa spared: on sharing rather than on accumulation.
throughout the continent the rainfall cycle For the Mediterranean to once again
is being disrupted. In areas where several become the symbol of freedom and of
harvests per year had always ensured civilization that it represented for centu-
populations’ subsistence, drought means ries, for it to cease to be a graveyard
only one is now possible. Cattle are also where millions of people’s hopes for
affected: pastures are flooded and then a better life are smashed, let’s simply
L
ong ignored, migration and envi- provide alternatives, build social cohe- policies and programmes to attract those
ronmental degradation are both, sion and remove at least some of the trig- investments towards land opportunities.
out of necessity, forcing their way gers for radicalization and conflict. The government and its technical agen-
up political agendas. The fact that this Slow-onset events, such as desertifi- cies are creating the enabling environ-
is happening, at the same time, is not a cation, land degradation and drought, ment to attract migrant entrepreneurs by
surprise. in particular, allow us to plan and inter- offering low-rate credit and land conces-
As climate change and environmental vene. Avoiding environmentally induced sions. So far, demand for land-related
degradation occur, the world’s rural poor displacement and mass migration investment opportunities by the diaspora
are hit first and hit hardest. Three out of involves simultaneously creating resil- has been impressive.
four rural people are poor and 86 per cent ient communities and strengthening By replicating these successes and
depend on the land for survival. Glob- the resources they depend on. Climate- thinking outside of the box on the rela-
ally, at least 1.5 billion people rely on proofing the land can be simple and cost- tionship between migration and envi-
degrading land buffeted by forces seem- effective. Planning a timely intervention ronmental issues, we could harness the
ingly beyond their control. In a time of also means building on the strengths of massive potential of migrants to support
dramatic climate change, as the land dries migrants themselves. Migrants have and the resilience of their home communities.
up and sea levels surge, competition for have acquired a hugely valuable array The Atlas of Environmental Migration
vital natural resources will accelerate and of skills and experience. Given the right is a step forward in raising awareness
communities crumble. The instances of incentives, they have the capacity to of how migration and environmental
seasonal migration that can already be invest and stabilize degraded ecosystems trends are converging. Understanding
observed in response to poor harvests and whole communities. Remittances these dynamics and addressing them
may become cases of permanent migra- into and within sub-Saharan Africa by before too many lives and resources are
tion in the event of crop destruction or migrants annually amount to roughly 40 irreversibly lost is vital for the common
extreme droughts. billion dollars. A huge amount can be future of every single one of us.
Solutions to these challenges based achieved if these funds are well invested.
only on the idea of containment lead to Take Ethiopia for example. The country Monique Barbut
record-breaking poverty, human rights has set a target to restore 15 million Monique Barbut, Executive Secretary of
violations and even more forced migra- hectares of degraded and deforested the United Nations Convention to Combat
Desertification
tion. We are seeing the consequences land into productivity by 2025 — that is
of our lack of holistic action in terms one-sixth of the total land area. House-
of a soaring number of migrant deaths hold remittances of on average about
and increased suffering at sea, in the 500 dollars per year have tradition-
deserts and along international frontiers. ally been used for short-term consump-
Unless both are properly considered and tion needs like food. In the rural areas,
addressed in a timely way, social unrest however, remittances are now increas-
and more violence will inevitably follow. ingly invested in repaying debt and in
Yet, through proactive policies addressing the resilience of the land in the face of
the relationship between people and their climate change. Returning migrants
lands, we can safeguard everyone. We can are introducing new, climate-resilient
support vulnerable communities, before farming methods. This is creating jobs
they are trapped, to rehabilitate their land; for rural youth who might have otherwise
help governments to secure land tenure migrated themselves.
rights and create new jobs for seasonal Well aware of the inter-linkages between
migrants as well as increase opportu- land degradation and migration as well as
nities for land-based investments. By of the development potential of diaspora
turning around degradation trends, we investments, Senegal is also promoting
The Atlas of Environmental Migration was produced At IOM, we also thank for their specific contributions We extend our sincerest gratitude to all the experts
through a partnership between the International Mazen Aboulhosn, Baptiste Amieux, Rudolf Anich, whose research work, contributions, advice and
Organization for Migration (IOM), the Paris Institute Jean-Philippe Antolin, Amal Ataya, Joseph Ashmore, encouragement were fundamental to this project,
of Political Studies (Sciences Po Paris) and the Leena Azzam, Lorena Bacci, Eliana Barragan, and to the young and dynamic community of
University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines Tara Brian, Angel Camino, Jean-Philippe Chauzy, researchers that has recently grown in the area
(UVSQ), and thanks to the generous contributions Ricardo Cordero, Abdel Diop, Mohamed Elaraki, of environmental migration. This Atlas is above
of its funding partners. Patrizio Fanti, Rabab Fatima, Monique Frison, Ethel all a recognition of their invaluable work, which
We would particularly like to thank the following Gandia, Elsa Garcia, Salvador Gutierrez, Shintaro serves every day the cause of all the people on
partners for their continuous support: the Bernheim Higashiyama, Agi Hoire, Michele Klein-Solomon, the move in the context of environmental change,
Foundation, COST Action IS1101 of the European Frank Laczko, Gael Leloup, Ray Leyesa, Bernardo and contributes to the promotion of their rights
Union, EPA Ghana, the European Commission, the Mariano, Kerry Maze, Fernando Medina, Susanne and living conditions. Special thanks goes to
Foundation for Population, Migration, Environment Melde, Chiara Milano, Marie Stella Ndiaye, Serena the students of the ‘Environment and Migration’
(BMU–PME), the Heinrich Böll Foundation – Odianose, Nuno Nunes, Kelly O’Connor, Sarah course at the Paris School of International Affairs
European Union, the ISDT Wernaers Fund, the Oliai, Guénolé Oudry, Jorge Peraza, Karoline at Sciences Po Paris for the numerous case studies
Italian Development Cooperation, the National Popp, Patrice Quesada, Daniel Salmon, Guglielmo compiled since 2010.
Research Foundation (Belgium), the Nippon Schinina, Wonesai Sithole, Emily Skovran, Dario Finally, this publication would not have been
Foundation, the Secretariat of the United Nations Tedesco, Monique Van Hoof, Lalini Veerassamy, possible without the dedicated work and creativity
Convention to Combat Desertification, and the Rachel Velasco, Maryna Vyrvykhvost, Kristy Warren, of the talented cartographers and graphic designers
United Nations Development Programme. Sanjula Weerasinghe, and all other contributing who have invested so much of their energy
colleagues at IOM Headquarters and regional and and expertise into this project, and to whom we
The authors would like to express their utmost national offices.
gratitude to all the contributors, colleagues and particularly owe our thanks:
governmental, institutional and academic partners We are extremely grateful to the editorial team Marie-Françoise Durand, Patrice Mitrano, Thomas
who have provided support to this work. at Routledge for their continued support to this Ansart, Antoine Rio and Benoît Martin at the Atelier
endeavour from the very start and for their patience; de Cartographie de Sciences Po Paris;
We are particularly grateful to William Lacy Swing, in particular to Helen Bell, Hannah Champney,
Laura Thompson, Ovais Sarmad, Gervais Appave, Louisa Earls, Margaret Farrelly, Edward Gibbons, Freelance cartographers Aurélie Boissière, Agnès
Shahidul Haque, Jill Helke, Bernd Hemingway and Annabelle Harris, and Bethany Wright, as well as to Stienne and Philippe Rekacewicz;
Sara Abbas at IOM. Martin Barr, our copy editor. And Otto Simonett, Emmanuelle Bournay,
Special thanks goes to Emma Proust and Melissa We would also like to thank Alexander Bramble Matthias Beilstein and Carolyne Daniel at the Zoï
Tui for their assistance in research, and, for their for his precious support and advice throughout Environment Network.
continuous support to the project, to Jo De Backer, the project and for the translation of a part of the
Barbara Bendandi, Alessia Castelfranco, Sabira publication; and our layout designer Alain Chevallier
Coelho, Clara Crimella, Alex Flavell, Lorenzo for his dedicated work and creative solutions to so
Guadagno, Valerie Hagger, Kerstin Lau, Sieun Lee, many challenges.
Eva Mach, Muhammad Rizki, Alice Sironi, Mariam
Traore Chazalnoel, Elizabeth Warn, and Lorelle Yuen
at IOM.
bmu
pme
T
he first theories on migration, elaborated A polymorphic concept
at the end of the nineteenth century, took Climate change brought about the ‘rediscovery’ of the
account of environmental conditions. But environment as a determining factor in migration, from the
this factor was rapidly forgotten, a state of moment that it was – justly – described as a considerable
affairs that continued up to the beginning of threat to human populations, which would first and foremost
the 1990s. materialize in the form of massive population displacement.
Current migration policies carry the scars of Although some precursory work on this phenomenon was
this oversight. They are still grounded in a touched upon in 1948, and then during the 1970s, the issue
binary understanding of migration inherited from the post-war started to be seriously addressed in the 1990s, notably following
years: either migrants are forced to flee for political reasons, the publication of a report commissioned by the United
in which case they can seek international protection, or they Nations Environment Programme in 1985. Since the middle
move voluntarily for economic reasons, and their reception of the 2000s, the impacts of climate change have become a
is thus solely the responsibility of States. This binarism has reality and the world has been rocked by several major natural
clearly resurfaced during the summer of 2015 with the influx disasters. Environmental migration has thus been included on
of refugees, notably Syrians, to Europe, and the resulting the migration studies agenda.
asylum crisis. Governments and the media have hastened to This generic concept, however, conceals a myriad of different
stress the distinction between refugees (political) and migrants dynamics. The term environmental migrants can include both
(economic), as if sorting were necessary in order to take in one Bangladeshi villagers forced to abandon their land due to
group and send back the other, whose migratory project and repeated flooding and American retirees moving to Florida to
presence would be illegitimate. It is, however, recognized that spend more time in the sun; or the inhabitants of small Pacific
such a distinction does not stand up to the reality of migratory islands that migrate abroad before sea-level rise makes their
dynamics, in which political, economic and environmental land uninhabitable and Haitians housed in a camp because
factors are interwoven. their homes have been destroyed by an earthquake. It can
The emergence of environmental migration at the forefront be argued that the only thing these different instances of
of the scene since the middle of the 2000s has shattered this migration have in common is their link to the environment.
dichotomy. It has not only demonstrated that the environmental Environmental migration can be forced and voluntary,
factor had quite simply not been considered when migration temporary and permanent, domestic and international, without
law and refugee law were shaped following the Second World forgetting the flip side, namely the forced immobility of many
War, despite the fact that this phenomenon is extremely old; populations, trapped by the impacts of environmental changes.
but also that migration could act as a climate change adaptation The term ‘environmental migration’ covers such a range of
solution – a fact that has called into question the traditional different situations that it sometimes even seems inadequate
dividing line between forced and voluntary migration. and tends to be replaced by the term ‘mobility’. Mobility, a
more consensual term, includes different forms of movement
and refers to the ability to migrate. It also helps to circumvent
the extremely blurred division between forced and voluntary
migration.
Voluntary Voluntary
Proactive Proactive
Short-term Long-term
Voluntary
Reactive Voluntary
Short-term Reactive
Long-term
Independent of empirical reality, these
terms are also political constructs that Voluntary
are useful for highlighting the growing
Forced
importance of environmental degradation Proactive
as a factor of migration. It is not so much a Long-term
Forced
matter of creating a particular category of Proactive Level of
migration as of drawing attention, as this Short-term coercion
Proactive
Atlas does, to a neglected factor, whose
importance will increase in the future. Level of
preparedness
Examples of population case, from the broader socio-economic The Dust Bowl migration was the single
movements associated with context. Dust storms resulting from most important population movement
environmental changes and severe droughts and poor agricultural within the United States, involving about
disasters are numerous techniques depleted arable land, and left 2.5 million migrants, among whom about
throughout history. thousands of farmers from Oklahoma, 200,000 moved to California. Despite
Texas and Arkansas with no choice but the historical significance of this event,
In 1755, the earthquake of Lisbon to sell their farms and move westwards the role of environmental changes as
destroyed most of the city, inducing in the 1930s. The environmental ‘push’ drivers of migration had been largely
mass displacements towards other parts factors were obvious in the migration overlooked until the human impacts of
of Portugal, with some of the displaced decision, but these factors were mixed climate change became a reality.
later returned to Lisbon. The Dust Bowl with the broader economic context of the
migration is another classic example of Great Depression, as well as inadequate Not only climate change
mass migration associated with envi- farming techniques. The prospects of a Yet it is important to remember that
ronmental events, though such events better life in California played a crucial environmental migration is not only a
cannot be disentangled, as is often the role as a ‘pull’ factor. climate change issue. On the contrary,
environmental conditions have always
been determinant in the distribution of
the population on the planet. Around
45,000 years ago, Europe was settled by
modern humans thanks to its favourable
climate and abundant resources. Coastal
and deltaic regions were settled because
their soil was more fertile. It is thus likely
that climate change, as a major, global
environmental disruption, will also affect
the distribution of the planet’s population.
Indeed, if environmental conditions are
key explanatory factors of the patterns
of historical population settlements,
it is probable that land degradation,
ecosystem disruption and resource
depletion induced by climate change will
‘Lisbon in ruins’, engraving by J. A. Steisslinger, 18th Century. COURTESY OF THE MUSEUM OF LISBON. change these patterns of settlement.
Migration to southern
Mesopotamia Migration waves
-4000 in Central Europe
Prolonged drought pushes 300 to 500
Migration through populations from northern
Fall of Akkadian
Empire Migrations Period in
Bering Strait Mesopotamia to the
-2200 Central Europe and
-25 000 to -20 000 Tigris-Euphrates Delta
America weakening of the
A land bridge across the offering rich coastal Decline of the Empire
Migration Roman Empire partly
Bering Strait exposed by habitats as a result of partially due to droughts related to droughts and
from affecting the entire region
the drop in sea levels post-glacial sea level rise. deforestation
Mesopotamia during the Wisconsin This results in the from the Aegean Sea to the
Europe to Europe Indus, drying up irrigation
glaciation likely to have development of irrigated
-50 000 to allowed migration from agriculture and emergence canals and causing the
-40 000 Asia to North America of the first cities abandonment of cities
Asia
-50 000 -40 000 -30 000 -20 000 - 4000 -3000 -2000 0 100 200 300 400
Atmospheric surface air temperature and global sea level since 50,000 BC, relative to present
Time
- 50 000 - 45 000 - 40 000 - 35 000 - 30 000 - 25 000 - 20 000 - 15 000 - 10 000 - 5 000 0 1950
0 0
-2 - 10
-4
- 20
-6
-8 Atmospheric - 30
- 10 temperatures
- 40
- 12 - 50
- 14
- 60
- 16
- 18 Global sea level - 70
- 20 - 80
Atmospheric
- 90
temperatures
Deg C - 100
- 110
Global
sea level - 120
Metres - 130
Source: Bintanja et al. (2005). © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Stienne, 2015.
Major demographic changes around 1200–1300 BC: whole villages 1852; more than 2 million people fled
Some key catastrophic events and and regions were then abandoned. In the country, and many settled in the
the displacement they induced have Greenland, Viking settlements disap- United States.
also dramatically altered the demo- peared around 1400 BC, as they could not Despite their historical importance, such
graphic patterns of certain cities and survive the Little Ice Age. examples of migration flows remain little
regions. Some regions emptied them- Other regions experienced major demo- known and sparsely documented, which
selves almost completely: around 2200 graphic shifts because of environmental might have given rise to the belief that
BC, the fall of the Akkadian Empire, in disruptions: the population of Ireland was climate change created a new type of
what today is Iraq, was associated with reduced by about one-quarter because migration. History proves otherwise.
major droughts that extended from of the Great Irish Famine of 1845 to
the Aegean Sea to the Indus. Droughts
were also responsible for the decline of
the Anasazi empire in Central America Collapse of Norse
settlements in
Greenland
Decline of the 1400 to 1500
Anasazi Soil degradation, failure
Decline of the Mayan 1150 to 1350 to adapt to the
civilization Great Irish Famine
Successive mega environment and to
800 to 900 1845 to 1852
droughts in the extremely cold Lisbon earthquake
Decline associated with the present-day Four temperatures, and Potato blight caused by
Huns invasion and tsunami warmer and damper
collapse of agricultural productivity, Corners region of the conflict caused the
406 1755 weather led to the
wars and famines largely caused by United States and abandonment of
Cold temperatures severe droughts and deforestation concomitant settlements by Norse Nearly a quarter of the destruction of crops
likely to have caused resulting in the depopulation and abandonment of Anasazi farmers and herders in city's population lost resulting in an unprece-
the freezing of the abandonment of cities settlements Greenland their lives, and tens of dented famine.
Rhine River, allowing thousands were 2 million people emigrated
the Huns to invade Gaul displaced to improvised and 1 million died, reducing
d and weaken the Roman camps, and to the rest the total population in
Empire of Europe Ireland by 20–25%
400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Source: Bintanja et al. (2005). © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Stienne, 2015.
Although research on Migration, environment and climate change terms on Google Search
environmental migration remains The size of the words is proportional to the number of pages returned by Google.com when searching for each term (2012)
Demonstration in favour of Tuvalu’s proposal for a new binding protocol at the COP15. Bella Center, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2009. © GREENPEACE FINLAND 2009
1997–1998 2009–2010
Not the
Epiphenomenon root cause
Migration scholars
Migration Sceptics
scholars
Adaptation
strategy
Migration scholars
Environmental scholars
International organizations
Policy-makers
1990s
2007-2008
Humanitarian
disaster Threat
1 Russia India
0.4
Central
Asia,
Only stocks above 400,000 Belarus, Indian
are represented (94% of total Ukraine subcontinent
international migrant stock)
North
America
Persian
Outside Gulf
Schengen Near East
and Caucasus
Mexico
Schengen
North
Africa
Central America East and
and Caribbean Central Africa
West
Africa
Southern
Africa
South
America
Source: UNDESA (2013b) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015
International migration Migration is a defining feature of turmoil, fast technological progress, and
trends, 1965–2013 As a % the modern world order. economic and demographic changes,
of the population has taken on a much more global and
3.2
Some have referred to the last decades pervasive scope. Compared to previous
of the twentieth century as the ‘age of migration patterns, contemporary popu-
3
migration’, where increased and accel- lation movements are more diverse in
erated movements of people have their shape, direction and drivers.
2.8
become central to national and interna-
tional politics, the globalized economy, Moving North or South?
2.6
social progress and individual well- While policy discourse tends to focus
being. People have always migrated in on the implications of migration from
2.4
search of better opportunities and fled developing countries to developed
poverty, violence and environmental regions, recent studies show that South–
2.2
change; however, mobility in the last few South movements (from one devel-
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: UNDESA (2013a) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco),
decades, shaped by past colonial migra- oping country to another) are as large
Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015 tion, the twentieth century’s political as movements from South to North
26.4
every year
15 M
5.1 million Palestinian
refugees under gies vary from one country to another.
UNRWA’s mandate However, the United Nations estimates
19.5 M
763
Internal migrants,
million
living outside of their region of birth (2005) that there are 763 million people world-
wide living within their country but
outside their region of birth. Estimates
2.44
People in forced
also exist for internal displacement due
labour as a result
of trafficking at
million
1.8 Asylum seekers
to conflict and violence, which is moni-
any given time
million tored by the UNHCR and IDMC.
International migrants,
living outside of their country of birth million People displaced by conflict and
231.5
or citizenship (2013)
People affected violence within the borders of their Learning from existing patterns
by statelessness own country, including 11 million The complexity and variety of methodol-
38
(at least) people newly displaced in 2014
10 M
ogies designed to calculate the number
of migrants, whether international or
million
internal, makes any comparison between
figures on different types of migration
40,000
million
Lives lost during
migration since 2000
difficult, and often meaningless. In addi-
tion, there are still many unknowns; for
Sources: Cernea (2006), IDMC (2015a, 2015b), ILO (2005), IOM (2013, 2014), UNDESA (2013c, 2013d), UNHCR (2015)
© IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015 instance, it is hard to determine to what
extent existing migration patterns are
influenced by gradual environmental
(from developing to developed coun- linked to environmental factors. Accurate change.
tries), and represent more than one-third statistics by type of migration are seldom The study of global migration patterns
of total international migration. Migra- available, except when migrants fall into helps to shed light on the complexity
tion between developed countries repre- a clear legal category or benefit from of the subject: in most cases, environ-
sents around one-fifth of global flows, special assistance, such as refugees or mental migration will be shaped by
and a growing percentage of migrants those benefiting from family reunifica- pre-existing channels at the national,
move from North to South. In absolute tion programmes, who are recorded by regional and international levels. It
terms, there are more migrants coming relevant national and international agen- is therefore essential to understand
from developing countries, where the cies. In most cases, however, migratory existing migration systems, and the diffi-
population is higher; however, in relative situations are complex, rarely fall into culties in terms of estimation, assess-
terms, people from developed countries a single category, and may evolve over ment and categorization, which are also
are more likely to migrate. time. Furthermore, the global figure does relevant to the study of mobility related
not account for a number of migratory to environmental change.
Assessing global migration situations for which statistics are hard
The number of international migrants to obtain – typically the case of many Four migration pathways, 2013
has more than doubled over the last 30 forced forms of cross-border migration,
In millions
years and, despite a slowdown following including victims of smuggling and traf-
the 2008 global economic crisis, reached ficking, and an exponentially growing 54 North
232 million migrants in 2013, which number of irregular migrants. Quanti-
represents around 3.3 per cent of the fying these types of migration is chal-
global population. This global figure, lenging, due to their hidden nature, and
which measures ‘stocks’ of migrants in only rough estimates are available for 75.6 13.3
a given country at a given moment in these flows. Finally, the global figure
time as recorded through national statis- does not reflect seasonal, circular or
tics and censuses, shows just one facet other temporary movements, which may
of the complex world migration patterns, also include temporary cross-border South 77.6
and provides no indication as to the displacement due to natural disasters.
reasons for and nature of movements.
Behind it lie various types of migration An age of mass internal migration
across borders, including labour migra- The focus of political discourse on inter- Calculations made using UN DESA classification of countries
into developing and developed regions (see
tion, migration for education, refugee national migration diverts attention away http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/m49/m49.htm).
For a detailed discussion on ‘North’-‘South’ classification and
movements, family reunification, return from one of the predominant forms of terminology, please see IOM World Migration Report 2013.
migration, or retirement and amenity migration: internal migration within coun-
Source: IOM (2013) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco),
migration, some of which may also be tries, driven by urbanization, economic Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015
Research on migration,
environment and climate change
Number of case studies
by country studied
55
25
10
5
1
In the debate on environmental population movements. And when people, notably in the context of disas-
migration, one of the most they do exist, these statistics are rarely ters, but not stocks. Aside from evolving
natural questions is also one of compatible: environmental and climatic censuses of displaced people carried out
the most contentious: how many phenomena are generally evaluated per on the ground for operational purposes, it
people are today displaced square kilometre, whereas demographic is currently not known how many people
because of environmental data are generally measured on the scale remain displaced a year after their initial
degradation? And how many will of administrative units. movement.
be displaced tomorrow? Knowing how to quantify and predict
New research methods environmental migration is an issue that
From reports to declarations, the most Yet, great progress has recently been greatly goes beyond the research sphere;
unreasonable estimations circulate as made in terms of data collection without precise estimates, it would be
to the number of people displaced due methods. While the majority of current difficult to make appropriate political
to environmental degradation. The first studies devoted to the subject are of decisions to protect those displaced both
estimate dates from 1988, when Jodi a qualitative nature, a whole host of today and in the future.
Jacobson, from the World Watch Insti- empirical methods exist, which, with
tute, put the figure at 10 million. In 1993, specific cases, can be used to establish Complicated forecasting
Norman Myers, Professor of Ecology at quantitative data, such as historical Predicting the future is even more deli-
Oxford University, put forward a figure of research, comparisons between regions cate. Estimates on future migrations
25 million. or countries, analyses cross-examining linked to environmental change are still
regional and individual data, field studies, extremely fragile. They are often trapped
A key factor of migration etc. Although they generally deal with in a determinist perspective, as if the
The truth is that even if it can be supposed limited geographical areas, longitudinal number of future environmental migrants
that the environment is one of the prin- studies have helped to identify long-term exclusively depended on future envi-
cipal factors of migration throughout trends. ronmental degradation, independent of
the world, a precise figure is impossible In most cases, however, current esti- the political, economic or demographic
to establish. That would, first, suppose mates only measure flows of displaced context. Many fanciful predictions have
that a strict definition for these migrants
exists; and, second, that the environ- Number of empirical case studies by type of methodology used
ment could be isolated as a distinc- (1980–2013)
tive factor for migration – something
that is not always the case. The average The CliMig database of the University of qualitative field studies – the latter, using
number of people displaced every year Neuchâtel is the most comprehensive ethnographic methods, being the most
repository of case studies on environ- common form of empirical research. The
due to natural disasters is 25.4 million,
mental migration. A case study as defined depth of the analysis can vary significantly
or one every second. In addition to this by CliMig is a study of an area or a country between a case study entirely dedicated
figure, the figure relating to the number based on empirical research. Case studies to one country and a case study providing
of people displaced by more insidious use different methodologies, ranging from an overall picture of global or regional
spatial analysis and sample surveys, to trends.
environmental degradation would also
be needed, degradation that includes Comparisons between
sea-level rise or deforestation, but this Qualitative different regions or countries
figure is not known. Finally, the number case studies Analysis
of environmental migrants is all the more 50 crossing
difficult to estimate as it combines both regional and
21
136 individual data
voluntary and forced migrants, and both
short and long-term displacement.
79 Analysis
based
Insufficient data on individual
The basic lack of data constitutes an surveys
essential difficulty. Migration related to 81 51
the environment is often short distance, Hotspots
identification Historical research
within the borders of one single country,
and regional case studies
and many countries do not possess the
Source: Piguet (2010) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015
requisite statistical tools to track internal
——
CHAPTER II.
In a splendid old cathedral, a solemn ceremonial was going
forward on the morning of a holy festival. A bishop was to be
consecrated.
A mighty crowd assembled in this edifice to witness the
ceremony, and the mother of Duncan Melville was there, the
happiest soul in all that great company, for it was her son on whom
the high honor was to be laid!
How beautiful was the pale, holy countenance of the minister,
who in the early strength of his manhood, was accounted worthy to
fill that great office, for which he was about to be set apart! He was
a man “acquainted with grief;” you had known it by that resigned,
submissive expression of his face: you had known that the passions
of mortals had been all subdued in him, by the holy light of his
tranquil eyes. Duncan had toiled—he had borne a burden.
A thousand felt it, looking on the noble front, where religion
undefiled, and peace, and holy love, and charity, had left for
themselves unmistakable witnesses: and more than all, one being
felt it, that had not looked upon that man for years. Not since the
lines of care and grief had marked the face and form of Duncan
Melville. There was a reason for the passionate sobs of one heart,
crushed anew in this solemn hour—there was a pathos, such as no
other voice could give, to the prayers that went up to God that day,
from one woman’s heart in the great congregation, for him. Poor,
loving, still-beloved Rosalie! she was there—there, her proud,
magnificent figure, bent humbly from the very commencement till
the close of the ceremonial—there, her beautiful eyes filled with
tears of love, and grief, and despair, and pride—there, crushed as
the humblest flower—that glorious beauty.
And the good man at the altar for whom the prayers and the
praise ascended, thought of her in that hour! Yes, in that very hour,
he remembered how one would have looked on him that day, could
she have come, his wife, to witness how his brethren and the people
loved and honored him. He thought of her, and as he knelt at the
altar, even then he prayed for her. But, not as numbers thought
upon the name of Rosalie Sherwood that day; for she also, was soon
to appear before a throng, and there were a myriad hearts that
throbbed with expectancy, and waited impatiently for the hour to
come when they should look upon her!
Bishop Melville sat in his study at noonday, for a few moments,
alone. He was glancing over the sermon that he was to deliver that
afternoon, when his mother, his proud, happy mother came into the
room quietly, laid a sealed note upon the table, and instantly
withdrew, for she saw how he was occupied.
When he had finished his reading, the bishop opened the note
and read—could it have been with careless eyes?
That night and the following day, there were many who sought
admittance to the parlors of Rosalie Sherwood; they would lay the
homage of their trifling hearts at her feet. But all these sought in
vain—and why was this? Because such admiring tribute was not
what the noble woman sought, and because, ere she had risen in
the morning, a letter written in the solitude of night, was handed
her, which barred and bolted her door against the curious world.
“Rosalie! Rosalie! look back through the ten years that are gone,
I am answering your letter of long ago, with words—I have a
thousand times answered them in my heart, till the thoughts which
have been crowded there filled it almost to breaking. We have met,
met at last, you and I. But, did you call that a triumph, when you
stood in God’s house, and saw them lay their consecrating hands
upon me? Heaven forgive me, I was thinking of you then—and
thinking too, that if this honor was in any way to be thought a
reward, the needful part of it was wanting—you were not there! Yet,
you were there, you have written me—ah, but not Rosalie my wife,
the woman I loved better than all on earth, the acknowledged
woman, whose memory I had borne about with me till it was a
needful part of my existence. You were by when the people came to
see me consecrated:—and I obeyed your call, I saw you, when the
people anointed you with the tears of their admiration and praise. If
you read my heart at all that day, you knew how I had suffered, that
I had grown old in the sorrow; was I mistaken to-night, in the
thought that you too were not unmindful of the past—that you were
not satisfied with the popular applause? that you also, have been
lonely, and wept and sorrowed?
“There is but one barrier now in the wide world that shall
interpose between us, Rosalie—your own will. If I was ever anything
to you, I beseech you think calmly before you answer, and do not let
your ‘triumph’ to-night, blind you to the fact, which you once
recognized—which can make us happy yet.—I trust you as in our
younger days; nothing, nothing but your own words, could convince
me that you are not worthy to take the highest place among the
ladies of this land:—give me only your heart—and let the
remembrance that I have been faithful to you through all the past,
plead for me, if your pride should rise up to condemn me. Let me
come and plead with you, for I know not what I write.”
The answer returned to this letter was as follows:
“I learned long ago the bar that prevented our union—it is in
existence still, Duncan. Your mother only, shall decide, if it be
insurmountable. I have never, for a moment, doubted your
faithfulness, and it has been to me an unspeakable comfort, in the
days when I was alone, and toiling for a support, to know that none
had supplanted me in your affections. In the temptations, and
struggles, and hardships I have known, it has kept me above and
beyond the world—and if the last night’s triumph proves to be but
the opening to a new life for me on earth, the recollection of what
you are, and that you care for me, will prove a rock of defense, and
a strong-hold of hope, always. Severed from, or united with you, I
am yours forever.”
Seven days after, there was a marriage in the little church of that
remote village, where Duncan Melville and Rosalie Sherwood, passed
their childhood. Side by side they stood now, once again, where the
baptismal service had long since been read for them, and the
mother of the bishop gave the bride away!—“Honi soit qui mal y
pense!”
—None
But such as are good men can give good things,
And that which is not good, is not delicious
To a well-governed and wise appetite.
Now does the Lady rebuke him with all the true natural authority
of virtue for obtruding his false rules “pranked in reason’s garb,” and
in the true spirit of Satan bolting out his practical heresies with a
fluency quite beyond the capabilities of the tongue of Virtue. It is
true that in this interview there appears to be, so far as the Virgin
Lady is concerned, a singular union of the romantic and the sensible,
indeed such a preponderance of the latter as would have been quite
inconsistent with the style and spirit of the drama, as authenticated
by the masters of the histrionic art. Nevertheless, so great a genius
as Milton had a right to choose in what form he would embody—
through what channel he would pour the exalted sentiments and
burning thoughts which it is the prerogative of genius to supply. If it
pleased him to set before us naked creations of loveliness, or solitary
symbols of vice and deformity, rather in the style of the statuary
than of the painter of scenes, then let us be thankful for the gift,
and honor the memory of the giver. Comus is rebuked by the Lady in
such language as this:
Nature
Means her provision only to the good,
That live according to her sober laws,
And holy dictate of spare temperance:
If every just man that now pines with want,
Had but a moderate and beseeming share
Of that which lewdly-pampered luxury
Now heaps upon some face with vast excess,
Nature’s full blessings would be well dispensed
In unsuperfluous even proportion,
And she no whit encumbered with her store.
That strain continues until the guilty wizard stands abashed, like
Satan before the immaculate angel of the covenant, feeling how
awful virtue is: Comus confesses his fears of self-condemnation. He
felt “her words set off by some superior power,” and in spite of his
professed exemption from mortal ills, acknowledges “a cold
shuddering dew dips me all o’er.” Still he resolves to dissemble, and
as he is proceeding with his speech, in rush the brothers of the lady
to the rescue, and scatter all things around them.
The attendant Spirit again appears on the stage, to exercise her
guardian offices, and speaks at length. All the speakers are imbued
with classical knowledge, and abound in classical allusions. This is
just Miltonic. They are learned in Latin and Greek. And why should
Milton consult the verisimilitudes of the stage? In the compass of
thirteen lines of a song by the attendant Spirit, there are several
classical or fabulous names, among them Neptune, Nereus, Triton,
Glaucus, Thetis, Parthenope. How finely does he interweave them
with the thread of his song, even, by his poetic art, imparting to
them a portion of the melody that is vocal in his verse. He seems
capable of setting to music the whole catalogue of the Pantheon, the
Stoa, the Academy, and the Temples, whose sublime and impressive
architecture itself suggests an analogy to poetry of a high order.
Then the Nereids, the Dryads, the Fauns will always be poetical in an
humbler sense, so long as the woods and the waters shall be
grateful to the senses or pleasing to the imagination. Even the horrid
Satyrs are welcomed among his guests.
This poem is full of MUSIC, reminding us as well of the beautiful
bond—the indissoluble vinculum—that unites the sister arts, as of
the author’s passion for the science and the symphonies of sweet
sounds. A good recitation of his Ode on the Nativity is equal to a
grand overture on the organ. He was an Epic all over. To quote from
this very Comus, he could originate “strains that might create a soul
under the ribs of death.” If he did not absolutely invent the exquisite
epithet “rosy bosomed hours,” (it being derived from the
Rododatetylos Eos, “rosy-fingered Aurora” of Homer,) he interwove it
most gracefully in his song, as he did all thoughts, images, and
words which he deemed worthy of adaptation into the magic
structure of his works. They were so many living, many-colored
stones in that glorious temple of poesy, (be it reverentially spoken,)
“not made with hands,” but elaborated and elevated to its towering
height by those marvelous intellectual powers which are as much the
gift of God as inspiration itself, and far more identified with the MAN
than inspiration possibly could be. Oh, how solemn the spectacle, to
contemplate such a genius with his eye fixed, like that of an ancient
prophet, in a vision of spiritual worlds, peopled, not with the
ordinary phantoms of an earthly imagination, but with beings of
immortal mould and unmeasured power; his ear open to catch the
“ninefold harmony” of the celestial orders, as they sing and praise
the glorious Creator; his march above the ordinary walks of
humanity; his very soul taking wings, and like the eagle soaring
“with no middle flight,” but passing “the flaming bounds of time and
space,” and ascending from sphere to sphere until he reaches the
throne of the Eternal, there to hold high communion with the
Invisible God, and the august and awful associations that surround
him, whom “No eye hath seen nor can see, to whom be honor and
power everlasting.”
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