Seismic source characterization

and seismic activity

Lecture 9
Dr. Abhishek Kumar
Associate Professor
Department of Civil Engineering
Indian Institute of Technology, Guwahati
Webpage: http://www.iitg.ac.in/abhiak/
Applied Seismology for Engineers, Dr Abhishek Kumar, IIT
1
Guwahati
Introduction
• Seismic sources are referred to geological structure i.e. faults responsible for
generating earthquakes (refer to Lectures 2 and 3).
• A seismic source characterization:
• Identifies all potential earthquake rupture scenarios that can generate ground
motions of engineering interest.
• Helps to gain insights into the geological structures, faults, and tectonic
processes that give rise to earthquakes occurrence in the location of interest.
• Through the characterization of these seismic sources, one can gain a deeper
understanding of the fundamental mechanisms and conditions that contribute to
the occurrence of earthquakes.
• To estimate and understand the seismic hazard of a particular site of interest,
seismic source characterization plays a crucial role.
• Seismic source characterization is the first step towards any type of seismic hazard
analysis.
Applied Seismology for Engineers, Dr Abhishek Kumar, IIT Guwahati 2
 Objectives of seismic source characterization
• To identify seismic sources:
• The first objective is to determine the location and geometry of all seismic
sources that contribute to the total hazard at the site of interest.
• A complete database needs to be made for a few hundred kilometer radius
around the location and different scales of analysis need to be consider.
• During this process, the seismotectonic setting of the site and the desired hazard
return period are required to be taken into account.
• Characterizing seismic activity:
• This includes determining a range of uncertain characteristics, such as the
maximum magnitude of these sources, seismic activity rate and the models used
to explain seismicity distribution.
• Considering uncertainties:
• One more objective is to consider all inherent epistemic (knowledge-based) and
aleatory (random) uncertainties and to understand the influence of these
uncertainties.
Applied Seismology for Engineers, Dr Abhishek Kumar, IIT Guwahati 3
 Seismic source models
• A seismic source model (SSM) represents
the probable locations of future earthquakes.
• For seismic hazard analysis, SSM combines
different types of sources. Location
of interest
• Types of sources:
• Fault sources Area
• Area sources source
• Point sources
• Background sources
Seismic source
characterization is done for
the whole area within the
seismotectonic province.
Fig. 1: Figure showing location of interest, area
source and a fault source
Applied Seismology for Engineers, Dr Abhishek Kumar, IIT Guwahati 4
Seismic source models
• Fault sources:
• Most general representation of seismic source is a fault.
• A fault is a three dimensional surface that represent a zone of weakness in
the rocks beneath the Earth’s surface.
• The information about the Faults can be obtained from geotectonic,
geophysical and seismological investigations.
• Fault source model is a complex model:
• Even if events have previously taken place on a given fault, it is not always
clear how the fault might rupture in the future.
• A fault source is represented within a seismic hazard analysis by;
• A simple polygon in three dimensional space based on the strike and dip
values obtained from fault plane solution.
• Linear lines in two dimensional space based on the strike of the fault in
some cases.
• Number of polygons or line segments are also used to represent the
geometric segments of a fault.
Applied Seismology for Engineers, Dr Abhishek Kumar, IIT Guwahati 5
Seismic source models
• Area sources:
• In many regions, though active faults may exist, but characterizing individual
faults as seismic sources may not be possible.
• If a region has experienced small events that have not breached the surface,
the precise locations of the causative faults may be unknown.
• In such cases, an area source is commonly defined to cover the seismic
activity over a spatial region.
• The general orientations of the ruptures within the source can be estimated
using focal mechanism solutions or in-situ measurements.
• Area sources are typically represented as polygon or a polyhedron.
• The seismic activity within an area source is uniform but different from regions
outside of it.

Applied Seismology for Engineers, Dr Abhishek Kumar, IIT Guwahati 6

Seismic source models
• Point sources:
• In point source model, seismic activity is represented as a point source where
earthquakes are assume to occur at a single location.
• In this model, rupture dimensions are not considered.
• Point source are normally applicable for ground motion model only.
• Point source model can sometime also used for hazard analysis:
• If a fault consistently ruptures with a characteristic magnitude and the
entire fault length is involved in the rupture. In such cases, the ground
motion at a specific site can be computed by considering ruptures
occurred at the nearest point on the fault to that site.
• To improve computational efficiency, an area source may be substituted
with distributed point sources, allowing for a more manageable and
efficient analysis process.

Applied Seismology for Engineers, Dr Abhishek Kumar, IIT Guwahati 7

Seismic source models

• Background Sources:
• All locations in the world have some level of background seismicity even the
level is very low.
• Background Sources are area sources but relatively complex. It may often
contains holes and needed to be represented by multiple polygons.
• This low seismicity sources can also contribute significantly to the seismic
hazard at the site.
• Sometime, the site of interest may located within the background source.
• Including the background source is crucial for a comprehensive understanding
of seismicity.

Applied Seismology for Engineers, Dr Abhishek Kumar, IIT Guwahati 8

Evaluation of seismic sources
• Geological evidence: Obtaining the information about faults based on the
deformation within ground and based on geomorphology.
• Aerial photography and remote sensing,
• Surficial reconnaissance
• Fault trenching
• Geophysical methods
• Historical evidence: Obtaining the information based on historical
documentations.
• Instrumental evidence: Based on ground motions and information on
earthquake obtained from instrumental records.
• Past Literature: Based on the research paper published related to the seismic
sources on the area of interest

Applied Seismology for Engineers, Dr Abhishek Kumar, IIT Guwahati 9

Seismic source zonation
• Seismic hazard in a location is influence by:
• Sources around it, within a larger area.
• Seismological, tectonic and geologic attributes are not same throughout a
large area.
• Seismic activity rate throughout a large area is also varying.
• Thus, considering same parameters throughout the area will:
• Underestimate the seismic hazard level for some particular regions.
• Overestimate the seismic hazard level for other regions.
• Better to delineate the seismic source zones present in the area.

Applied Seismology for Engineers, Dr Abhishek Kumar, IIT Guwahati 10

Types of seismic source zone
• Four types of seismic source zones :
• Seismotectonic zone
• Casual relationship between faults and earthquakes established within
the zones.
• Process of mechanism and generation of earthquake can be studied.
• Paleoseismic zone
• Have an important Quaternary-Holocene structural history.
• Have possibility of seismic activity in the future.
• Lack of seismic history
• Seismogenic zone
• Lacks the development of a clear history relating the contemporary
seismic activity to a geologic structure/ faults.
• Capable of generating earthquakes anywhere in the zone.
• Seismicity zone
• Based on spatial distribution of seismic history.
• No fault information is utilized.
Applied Seismology for Engineers, Dr Abhishek Kumar, IIT Guwahati 11
Example of seismic source zonation (North East
India)
[Fig.2 source: Borah, N., & Kumar, A. (2023). Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of
the North-East India towards identification of contributing seismic sources. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 14(1), 1-38.]
Very high
Earthquake Activity

Very Low
Earthquake
Activity
Fig.2 : Past EQ events in and Fig.3 : Significant seismic sources (Faults) in and
around NE India around NE India showing complex tectonic setup

Thus, the entire region isSeismology

Applied required to divide
for Engineers, intoKumar,
Dr Abhishek multiple seismic source zones
IIT Guwahati 12
Example of seismic source zonation (North East
India)
Reference Numbers of source zones Based on
considered
Sharma and Malik (2006) 10 Tectonic settings: fault locations and alignments.
Gupta (2006) for the entire 20 out of 81 zones are near NE Seismicity and tectonic features.
India. India
Pallav et al. (2012) 7 (based on Goswami and Tectonics settings and geology.
Sarmah, 1982 and Nandy,
2001)
Kolathayar and Sitharam More that 25 source zones are Seismic events distribution.
(2012) for the entire India. near NE India.
Sitharam and Sil (2014) 6 Event distribution pattern and source orientation.
Das et al. (2016) 9 (based on Angelier and Tectonics, geology, focal mechanisms and spatial
Baruah, 2009) distribution of seismicity.
Bahuguna and Sil (2018) 17 active and 12 inactive Fault alignment and location of the seismic sources.
Baro et al. (2020) 4 Geology, overburden thickness, seismotectonics,
rupture characteristics and rate of movement.
Borah et al. (2021) 12 and 11 Past EQ locations and seismicity parameters
Applied Seismology for Engineers, Dr Abhishek Kumar, IIT Guwahati 13
Conti…

• Baro et al. (2020) divided NE India into 4

zones:
• Shillong Plateau–Assam Valley Zone
(SP-AVZ)
• Indo-Burma Ranges Zone (IBRZ)
• Bengal Basin Zone (BBZ) Eastern
Himalayas Zone (EHZ)
• Based on: Low
• Geology, seismicity
• Overburden thickness activity
• Seismotectonics
• Rupture characteristics High
• Rate of movement. seismicity
activity
[Fig source: Baro, O., & Kumar, A. (2017). Seismic source
characterization for the Shillong Plateau in Northeast India. Fig.4: The four seismic source zones of Baro et al. (2020),
Journal of Seismology, 21, 1229-1249.] along with the beach ball solution of some of the
significant EQs in the different zones (Baro and Kumar, 2017)
Applied Seismology for Engineers, Dr Abhishek Kumar, IIT Guwahati 14
Conti…

• Borah et al. (2021): Used hierarchical clustering to divide the entire region into
different source zones.

Fig.5: 12 source zones based on the location of the Fig.6 : 11 source zones based on the location of
past earthquakes the past earthquakes and seismic activity
[Fig source: Borah, N., Kumar, A., & Dhanotiya, R. (2021). Seismic source zonation for NE India
on the basis of past EQs and spatial distribution of seismicity parameters. Journal of Seismology, 25(6), 1483-1506.
Applied Seismology for Engineers, Dr Abhishek Kumar, IIT Guwahati 15
Seismic Source uncertainty
• There are mainly two types of uncertainties:
1. Aleatory uncertainty:
a) These uncertainties arises due to the inherent randomness of earthquake
occurrences.
b) Example: earthquake magnitude, location and ground motion intensity.
2. Epistemic uncertainty:
a) These uncertainties results from limited knowledge or understanding of
certain parameters related to seismic sources.
b) Example: which model is good?, which model to consider?

Applied Seismology for Engineers, Dr Abhishek Kumar, IIT Guwahati 16

Uncertainty in Seismic Source
• Dealing with the uncertainties:
• Aleatory uncertainty:
• Consideration of probabilistic models.
• Considering the range of possible earthquake scenarios and associated
ground motions.
• Epistemic uncertainty:
• Integration of various data sources (geological, geophysical,
seismological) improves understanding of fault geometry, activity rates,
and key parameters.
• Comparison of model output with field data.
• By incorporating alternative models in logic tree.

Applied Seismology for Engineers, Dr Abhishek Kumar, IIT Guwahati 17

Importance of seismic source characterisation
• Seismic source characterization helps us gain insights into the geological
structures, faults, and tectonic processes that give rise to earthquakes.
• Seismic source characterization provide a thorough understanding of:
• the contributing seismic sources,
• seismic activity,
• associated uncertainties.
• This knowledge is essential for accurately assessing the seismic hazard at a
specific site
• Helps in decision-making processes related to seismic design, land-use planning,
and emergency preparedness.

Applied Seismology for Engineers, Dr Abhishek Kumar, IIT Guwahati 18

Characterizing seismic activity
• Maximum magnitude of EQ on a source:
• The hazard level of a location of interest is directly depends on the maximum
magnitude that its nearby sources can produce.
• This magnitude may be higher than the maximum earthquake magnitude that the
source has produced in the past (or within the time of data availability).
• There are different methods available to estimate this potential maximum
magnitude based on :
• Statistical analysis: Based on the statistical analysis considering all past
earthquake magnitude occurred within the source.
• Geometry of the faults: Based on the source-scaling relations between
earthquake magnitude and source dimensions (area, length, width etc. of the
source) for different types of source.

Applied Seismology for Engineers, Dr Abhishek Kumar, IIT Guwahati 19

 Characterizing seismic activity
(2)
(1)
• Seismic activity rate:

logN(M)

logN(M)
• The rate of exceedance (N) of EQ of a (a1,b1) (a2,b2)
magnitude (M) in a region can be
related to its M value as (Gutenberg-
Richter relation): M M
logN(M) = a − bM Fig.7: Gutenberg-Richter relation here a1<a2
• Here ‘a’ and ‘b’ are the seismicity
parameters.
• These two parameters can tell about the (1) (2)
level of seismic activity in a region:

logN(M)

logN(M)
(a1,b1)
• If ‘a’ is more, then the earthquake (a2,b2)
occurrence of low magnitude in the
region is more.
• If ‘b’ is less, then the occurrence of M M
higher magnitude earthquake is more in Fig.8: Gutenberg-Richter relation here b1<b2
the region.
Applied Seismology for Engineers, Dr Abhishek Kumar, IIT Guwahati 20