The future of Papua New

Jenny Hayward-Jones
Guinea: Old challenges March 2016

for new leaders

 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

The Lowy Institute for International Policy is an independent policy think

tank. Its mandate ranges across all the dimensions of international policy
debate in Australia — economic, political and strategic — and it is not
limited to a particular geographic region. Its two core tasks are to:

• produce distinctive research and fresh policy options for Australia’s

international policy and to contribute to the wider international debate

• promote discussion of Australia’s role in the world by providing an

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international relations through debates, seminars, lectures, dialogues
and conferences.

Lowy Institute Analyses are short papers analysing recent international

trends and events and their policy implications.

The views expressed in this paper are entirely the author’s own and
not those of the Lowy Institute for International Policy.
 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
After 40 years of independence there are reasons to be both optimistic
and pessimistic about PNG’s future. A growing middle class has
produced a number of talented emerging leaders who are committed to
changing the weak development trajectory of their country. They will
come into leadership positions in government, in the private sector, and
in civil society armed with ambitious strategic plans created by the
Somare and O’Neill governments and lessons learned from the
experience of their elders. They face a highly complex set of challenges,
influenced by seven key trends: weak governance; poor law and order; a
failing health system; a mediocre national education system; continuing
reliance on the extractives industry; the unrealised potential of
subsistence agriculture; and a growing population.

A new generation of leaders must build the quality and effectiveness of

national institutions. At the same time they will need to demonstrate
tangible improvements to the delivery of health and education services
and to law and justice. Turning negative trends into positive ones will
require some fundamental changes in approach by the next generation
of PNG’s leaders. Seeking to solve all of the nation’s problems
simultaneously with insufficient resources is unlikely to deliver the kind of
progress Papua New Guineans expect. Emerging leaders should
concentrate on a few areas where bold and innovative policy
interventions could make a transformational difference. Australia, which
has enduring interests in PNG’s success, should be creative in
supporting the next generation of leaders, through government, private
sector, and civil society links, to help them make a real difference.

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 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

In 2015 Papua New Guinea celebrated 40 years of independence. The

anniversary stimulated a great deal of public reflection on the nation’s
progress to date and its future. For Papua New Guineans, there are
reasons to be both optimistic and pessimistic about the next 40 years.

Papua New Guinea’s population of 7.5 million is young and growing. The
country has experienced more than a decade of sustained economic …there are reasons to
growth. Its population is now better connected through an extensive
be both optimistic and
mobile telecommunications network. A vast social safety net created by
cultural obligations within communities ensures that everyone has food pessimistic about the
and housing. A growing middle class has produced a number of talented next 40 years.
emerging leaders who will be a force for change in the country.

But equally, Papua New Guinea faces some serious challenges. In the
last 40 years, progress in raising the living standards of the majority of
the population has been extremely slow and arguably is faltering.
Current trends — in the economy, law and order, health, and education
— do not augur well for either the immediate or medium-term future.

Successive leaders of Papua New Guinea have pinned their hopes for
realising the development ambitions of the nation on the next significant
resources investment. However, as evidenced by the slow progress
made in delivering the benefits of the most recent resources boom,
relying on revenue from the extractives industry alone is insufficient to
make life better for future generations of Papua New Guineans.

All of this matters greatly to Australia. Australia was once the colonial
power and remains the country’s dominant security, trade, investment,
and aid partner. Sean Dorney argues in his recent Lowy Institute Paper,
The Embarrassed Colonialist, that Papua New Guinea is worth having
1
as a good, solid, friendly neighbour. Australia’s 2016 Defence White
Paper notes that “the security, stability and cohesion of Papua New
Guinea contributes to a secure, resilient Australia with secure northern
2
approaches”. Papua New Guinea is Australia’s 18th largest trading
partner while Australia is by far PNG’s most significant trading partner.
Australian investment in Papua New Guinea is estimated at over
3
$18 billion. But most significantly, Papua New Guinea is and will likely
remain the single largest destination for Australian aid. The aid program
in 2015/16 is valued at $554.5 million and accounts for three-quarters of
4
all aid to Papua New Guinea.

The aim of this Analysis is to identify the key trends that will shape the
future of PNG’s development, specifically: weak governance; poor law
and order; a failing health system; a mediocre national education
system; continuing reliance on the extractives industry; the unrealised
potential of subsistence agriculture; and a growing population. The goal
here, however, is not to highlight the shortcomings of the current or

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 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

previous PNG governments, but to identify those issues that need to be

tackled in coming years if PNG’s future is to look different from its past.
As this Analysis will argue, remaking PNG’s future will require some
fundamental changes in approach by the next generation of PNG
leaders. This Analysis will also discuss the role that Australia should
play, given that it too has a vital stake in PNG’s future.

KEY TRENDS
In discussing the trends likely to shape PNG’s future, it would be wrong
to give the impression that nothing good has happened in Papua New
Guinea in the last 40 years.

Papua New Guineans have embraced democratic participation through

elections. These are held every five years and contested by increasing
numbers of candidates. While many changes of government have been
enabled by motions of no confidence on the floor of the parliament, no
government in Papua New Guinea has been removed by military force.
A free media has endured despite attempts by various governments to
intimidate journalists.

The country has made important strides in developing trade and

[PNG] has made investment links with fast-growing Asian nations, including China, and
expanded the focus of its relationship with Australia beyond aid. The
important strides in
success of ExxonMobil’s investment in PNG’s liquefied natural gas
developing trade and (LNG) has spurred international investor confidence in the potential of
investment links with the country.

fast-growing Asian PNG governments have not been short of vision and ambition for their
nations. country. In 2009 the Somare government launched Papua New Guinea
Vision 2050, a bold strategic framework to guide successive
5
governments in developing Papua New Guinea over 40 years. In
2014 the O’Neill government refined this strategy and introduced the
National Strategy for Responsible Sustainable Development, which
foresees the “support and engagement of all sectors of society” in
6
building a “truly sustainable and responsible economy”.
Nevertheless, if PNG’s efforts to reshape the country’s future are to
succeed they will need to tackle seven key trends.

WEAK GOVERNANCE
Successive Australian governments have been in despair about poor
governance in Papua New Guinea, worrying about weak institutions,
lack of capacity in the public service, corruption, political instability,
ineffective leadership, and a thin civil society ill-equipped to hold
government to account. Many PNG and Australian businesspeople and
government officials have commented to the author that weak capacity
and inadequate skills in the public service are the most critical inhibitors
7
to development in Papua New Guinea. The PNG Government has
invested in training, worked with aid partners, the private sector,

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 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

churches, and non-government organisations to help fill capacity gaps.

In the past 15 years the Australian Government says it has spent
between a third and a fifth of its total aid budget to Papua New Guinea
8
on improving governance, although the proportion may be even higher
as expenditure in all sectors of the aid program involves governance
9
programming.

The return on this substantial investment has been poor. The World
Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) show little overall …the Australian
improvement in governance in Papua New Guinea in the period
Government…has spent
between 1998 and 2014. The WGI measures voice and accountability,
political stability and absence of violence/terrorism, government between a third and a
effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption. fifth of its total aid budget
Despite reform and significant Australian investment in improving the
performance of the PNG public service, the WGI show that government
to Papua New Guinea on
effectiveness diminished between 1998 and 2014. Placed in the improving governance.
32nd percentile in 1998 (i.e. PNG’s government effectiveness was better
than 32 per cent of all countries assessed) it fell to the 27th percentile in
10
2014. The WGI judged the country’s rule of law to be in the
28th percentile in 1998; that fell to the 21st percentile in 2014.

PNG World Governance Indicators

Source: World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI).

Note: 1999 and 2001 are averages as the WGI were not recorded in these years.

A key feature of weak governance in PNG is corruption. Transparency

International’s 2015 Corruption Perceptions Index ranks Papua New
11
Guinea 139th in a list of 163. Its score of 25 — which indicates the
perceived level of public sector corruption on a scale of 0 (highly corrupt)
to 100 (very clean) — has remained constant in this Index for the last
four years. That score is borne out by similar flatlining of the WGI
assessment of PNG’s control of corruption over the last four years. In the
Asia-Pacific, where Papua New Guinea seeks to do more business, only
four countries score lower in Transparency International’s Index:

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 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

Myanmar, Cambodia, Afghanistan, and North Korea — all of which

have experienced either civil war or long-term dictatorship in their recent
histories. The WGI assessment of PNG’s performance in controlling
corruption showed that Papua New Guinea fell from the 19th percentile
in 1998 to the 15th percentile in 2014.

There are no quick fixes or indeed straightforward long-term fixes to

improving governance and building capacity in the public service in
Papua New Guinea. In many cases the PNG Government itself appears
to have given up on improving capacity of national government agencies.
The District Services Improvement Program, introduced by the O’Neill
government, has seen devolved funding flow to individual members of
parliament to manage the delivery of many services in their districts.

After decades of effort building up a national public service, this move

has transferred responsibility for improving living standards to politicians
and provincial and district governments, with even less transparency and
accountability standards than existed at the national level. This approach
has significant disadvantages. There is an equal chance of
implementation failure, more pressure is put on inadequately resourced
local-level governments, and there is more potential for fraud and
corruption. And as greater national funding is devolved to local-level
governments, less funding is invested in strengthening the capacity and
expertise of national agencies, thus threatening the viability of key
service delivery agencies. As the national government is the primary
employer in the formal sector, the decline of these agencies would have
further implications for the welfare of their employees and extended
families.

The Australian Government has invested heavily in capacity building

…technical advice…is through the placement of contracted technical advisers in PNG’s public
service and through the direct deployment of Australian public servants
still in demand in Papua
— mostly from the Departments of the Treasury and Finance — in
New Guinea. counterpart agencies in Papua New Guinea. A 2009 review of Australian
aid in Papua New Guinea commissioned by the Australian Government
found the ‘capacity building through advisers’ approach to be flawed,
based on evaluations of the aid program, the WGI, international
evidence, and local experience. The review recommended a variety of
mechanisms to reduce reliance on this approach and improve the impact
of the technical advice that is still in demand in Papua New Guinea. 12
Australia has adjusted its approach to capacity building but faces
challenges in managing political expectations that foreign advisers be
more accountable to PNG government ministers.

POOR LAW AND ORDER

Law and order challenges in Papua New Guinea are intractable. Levels
of crime and violence are high and are a major obstacle to economic
development. Robbery, assault, and domestic violence are the most

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 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

commonly reported crimes. Urban centres — notably the capital Port

Moresby, the industrial town of Lae, and Mount Hagen in the Highlands
— have high crime rates. Disturbingly, the physical features of the
business centres and residential areas in those urban centres are
security walls. Tribal violence occurs without legal recourse. Many
women who are victims of violence face insurmountable challenges to
gaining legal redress.

Crime trends in Papua New Guinea are difficult to track accurately. A

2014 World Bank report on trends in crime and violence in Papua New
Guinea found that the limited literature available to determine crime
13
trends does not rely on “robust empirical evidence”. The report says
that two longitudinal datasets — crime data reported by the Royal Papua
New Guinea Constabulary (RPNGC) and urban crime victimisation
studies — show significant variance in the numbers and types of crimes
committed. Under-reporting of crime is common in Papua New Guinea,
further complicating attempts to determine trends.

What is clear is that overall levels of crime and violence are high in
Papua New Guinea compared with crime and violence rates in other
countries. The 2014 World Bank report found that crime was increasing
in a number of “hot spots” in Papua New Guinea, including Lae, Port
Papua New Guinea
Moresby, Madang, East New Britain, West New Britain, Western
14
Highlands, and Enga. Violent crime was growing as a proportion of has a very low police
crimes reported between 2007 and 2010. Property crimes were also to population ratio...
increasing in urban areas. The spread of firearms in the country has
created further problems with violence.

In 2015 the Economist Intelligence Unit ranked Port Moresby as the

15
world’s third least liveable city. Only Dhaka, a city of nearly 7 million
people, and Damascus, in the middle of a long-running civil war, ranked
lower. Human Rights Watch says Papua New Guinea is one of “the
most dangerous places in the world to be a woman, with an estimated
16
70 per cent of women experiencing rape or assault in their lifetime”.
The high rates of family and sexual violence qualify as a national
humanitarian emergency. World Bank research has found that:

“Eighty-one per cent of businesses [in Papua New Guinea]

reported that their decisions for further investment or expansion
of their operations were affected by the law and order situation
in the country. Sixty-seven per cent of firms identified crime as a
constraint … more than four times the regional average for firms
17
in East Asia and the Pacific.”

The law and justice sector’s ability to deal with rising levels of crime is
constrained by poor performance, funding problems, and capacity
weaknesses in the RPNGC. Papua New Guinea has a very low police to
population ratio of 78:100 000, compared with 268:100 000 in
18
Australia. The numbers of police have barely improved in the last
40 years. The RPNGC numbered 4100 officers at the time of

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 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

independence. By 2013 it had grown only 25 per cent to 5724 sworn and
19
374 unsworn members; at the same time the population had tripled.
Papua New Guinea Vision 2050 envisages increasing the police
personnel to population ratio from 1:1317 to the UN benchmark of 1:450
20
by 2050. There is a political commitment to increase police numbers
— the 2015 budget allocated PGK15.2 million to recruit 750 new police
21
officers. The current budget crisis, however, will likely mitigate against
significant new recruitment or reform taking place in the medium term. A
rapid turnover of police commissioners in recent years has also worked
against effective management of the police.

Meanwhile, spending on private security continues to increase. In 2014,

84 per cent of companies in Papua New Guinea used private security
22
firms. The security service industry is the fastest-growing business in
the country — it is estimated to be worth PGK1 billion and employs
23
approximately 30 000 people. This industry fills very obvious gaps
created by scarce resources and weak capacity in the RPNGC.
However, while private security guards can prevent criminal acts, they
cannot take over the role of the police in prosecuting crimes and
providing a service for the entire nation.

A FAILING HEALTH SYSTEM

Papua New Guinea has major health challenges. Among the top five
causes of morbidity and mortality are those associated with PNG’s
climate and environment, such as malaria and diarrhoeal and
24
waterborne diseases. But the top five list also includes vaccine-
preventable diseases such as tuberculosis. Immunisation coverage has
fluctuated in recent years but is below World Health Organization (WHO)
standards. Approximately 30 000 people live with HIV in Papua New
25
Guinea. The maternal mortality rate is very high at 230 per 100 000
live births, more than double the United Nations Millennium
26
Development Goal target set for Papua New Guinea in 2015.

The number of people affected by non-communicable diseases,

…WHO statistics including cardiovascular and respiratory disease, cancer, and diabetes,
is also increasing. Non-communicable diseases were responsible for an
show that some of
estimated 44 per cent of all mortality in 2008, up from 37.9 per cent in
PNG’s health outcomes 2004. Cardiovascular diseases accounted for 21 per cent of this
have improved. mortality rate, with cancer accounting for 8 per cent, respiratory diseases
27
5 per cent, and diabetes 2 per cent.

Although these challenges are worrying, WHO statistics show that some
of PNG’s health outcomes have improved. The overall incidence of
malaria declined between 2008 and 2013, with the prevalence of the
28
parasite in the population falling from 18.2 per cent to 6.7 per cent. And
there has been a slow decline in under-five child mortality and infant
29
mortality.

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 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

Still, despite increased levels of health spending by the PNG

Government, improved health outcomes have been incremental at best
and non-existent at worst. For example, the United Nations
Development Program’s 2014 report on Papua New Guinea notes that
maternal health is poor and possibly worsening. The report points to
Department of Health data from 2013 which showed that the level of
antenatal care had declined in the previous three years in all regions
except the Highlands and that there was an extreme shortage of skills in
30
the maternal health field. Treating the impact of violence against
women and children is a major challenge for the health sector.

Papua New Guinea has very low numbers of medical professionals

per capita. According to WHO, there are 5.3 nurses and midwives and
31
fewer than 1 doctor per 10 000 people. While some 85 per cent of the
population live in rural areas, only 51 of an estimated 400 doctors work
32
outside the capital, Port Moresby.

One benefit of a sustained period of economic growth over the past

decade has been an increase in the proportion of government
expenditure on health as a percentage of total expenditure, rising from …only 51 of an estimated
8.7 per cent in 2005 to 12.6 per cent in 2015. Total expenditure on
health as a percentage of gross domestic product rose from 4 per cent in 400 doctors work outside
33
2005 to 4.5 per cent in 2015. This is positive but more needs to be the capital, Port Moresby.
done to improve health outcomes for PNG’s citizens.

Churches have long played an important role in delivering health

services in Papua New Guinea. They have carved out a niche in caring
for the poorest, the most remote, and the most marginalised people and
become an integral part of the nation’s health system. Resources
companies have taken responsibility for delivering health services to the
districts where they operate. Some health initiatives driven by the private
sector have delivered impressive results in treating and preventing
malaria and HIV. On current trends, improvements in the delivery of
health services are possible but based on the investment in doctors and
infrastructure required, and the health challenges that the population
faces, any improvement will be incremental at best.

A MEDIOCRE NATIONAL EDUCATION SYSTEM

The average number of years of schooling achieved by adults in Papua
34
New Guinea is four. This is the lowest level in the Pacific Islands
region and is comparable to the levels of schooling attained by adults in
sub-Saharan Africa. In Fiji, for example, the average is nearly ten years.
The current completion rate of primary school in Papua New Guinea is
35
59 per cent.

Nelson Mandela’s maxim that “no country can really develop unless its
36
citizens are educated” has been embraced by the PNG Government.
Prime Minister Peter O’Neill said the prime aim for the next 40 years is “to
grow jobs for our people, and to do that we need to build a skilled labour

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 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

37
force and a productive population, through education”. The O’Neill
government has sought to address low levels of education with its tuition
fee-free education policy. This policy, introduced in 2012, has five key
objectives: “to improve access to schools (especially for girls); improve
The [free education] retention; improve the quality of education; strengthen education
38
policy…has succeeded management; and improve equity to schooling across the country.”
in increasing the The policy is a worthy aim and has succeeded in increasing the numbers
numbers of children of children attending school as well as equity in schooling. However,
quantity outcomes have been prioritised over quality outcomes. The
attending school… government has not ensured sufficient numbers of qualified teachers are
available to respond to increased demand for primary school education.
Better sequencing — investing in teacher training first — could have
made this policy more effective. As it stands, more children will be
pushed through primary school classrooms but not necessarily emerge
with an education that will allow them to continue to secondary school or
make a contribution to building the economy.

Papua New Guinea’s schooling system has suffered from a number of

policy shifts, drastic changes in curriculum, and under-resourcing. A
‘standards-based education’ curriculum replaced the ‘outcomes-based
education’ curriculum in primary schools in 2015. The tuition fee-free
education policy has imposed significant strain on teachers
accommodating very large classes. Teachers and administrators need
stability and support to deliver better education to the growing number of
children attending school.

It is not only primary and secondary schools that need reform in order to
deliver higher-quality education. Of the 23 000 students who completed
Grade 12 in 2015, only 4700 (around 20 per cent) are continuing with
higher education in 2016. Even this number is saturating the capacity of
39
PNG’s universities and vocational training institutions.

AN OVER-RELIANCE ON THE EXTRACTIVES INDUSTRY

Papua New Guinea is blessed with a vast endowment of natural
resources and a geographic proximity to rapidly growing Asian markets
for those resources. But as many developing countries have found, such
blessings can also be a curse. Although PNG policymakers are aware of
the resources curse, they have been unable to avoid suffering from it.

The successful development of the US$19 billion ExxonMobil LNG

investment in the PNG Highlands by 2014, ahead of schedule and within
budget, has been a boon for both the PNG economy and the country’s
prospects of attracting further foreign investment. Although the current
downturn in prices has slowed further investment in the extractives
sector, the success of PNG LNG spurred interest from Total, a French
multinational oil and gas company, which is leading the new
Elk-Antelope exploration in Gulf Province. Many of PNG’s emerging

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 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

leaders themselves benefit from careers in the extractives sector and

understand the importance of the sector to the economy.

Nonetheless, the socio-economic impact of PNG’s extractives sector

has been uneven at best. The resources sector will continue to offer
opportunities to skilled university graduates but the majority of these
jobs are largely dependent on favourable world prices and are limited
in number. Moreover, there is often a sharp downturn in benefits once
a project is underway. ExxonMobil’s massive LNG project directly
employed 9300 people during the construction phase and 1000
40
people post-construction. Chinese investment in the Ramu nickel
mine provided 5000 construction phase jobs and 2000 jobs
41
post-construction.

GDP and GDP per capita, 2012 prices

Source: Michael Cornish et al, “PNG Survey of Recent Developments, 2014-15”, Development Policy
Centre Discussion Paper No 41, 13 September 2015.

The most recent growth of the extractives sector, due in large part to
ExxonMobil’s investment, has coincided with the growth of the …the growth of the
non-extractive sector of the economy. Indeed, the latter performed well
non-extractive sector…
over the past decade and contributed to the private sector doubling in
size. The diversity of this growth was impressive with agriculture has contributed to the
accounting for 30 per cent and manufacturing 21 per cent, and building private sector doubling
and construction, wholesale and retail trade, transport, and finance and
42
business making up the balance. The Asian Development Bank (ADB)
in size.
attributes this positive trend to a commitment to fiscal discipline and
macroeconomic stability, reduced public debt and favourable external
conditions, aided by structural reforms in the finance and
43
telecommunications sectors.

The government’s mismanagement of the most recent resources boom

and subsequent budget crisis has underlined the risk of its over-reliance
on the extractives industry. The government assumed high oil and gas

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 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

prices would endure and guarantee windfall revenue for many years,
which led to excessive government spending before these revenue
streams were realised. When prices dropped in 2015, the government
lacked sufficient reserves or alternative productive sectors to
compensate for the loss of revenue. Foreign exchange controls imposed
to maintain PNG’s inflated exchange rate are hurting the private sector
and curtailing trade. Commitments to host international events such as
the Pacific Games in 2015, the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group
Leaders’ Summit in 2016, and APEC in 2018 have put further pressure
on PNG’s budget while the government struggles to fund service
delivery.

The ADB has argued fiscal prudence and macroeconomic stability rather
…substantial job than investment in the extractives sector alone will remain vital to
enabling formal sector job creation. The formal sector currently employs
creation and economic
about 15 per cent of the population. The informal sector is dominated by
returns…could come subsistence and semi-subsistence activity.
from investment in
In the absence of increased major corporate investments over the next
commercialising 40 years, formal sector growth will need to come from the development
subsistence agriculture. of domestic small to medium enterprises. The World Bank’s Doing
Business Survey for 2016 ranks Papua New Guinea at 138 out of 189
44
countries for ease of starting a business. Successive Lowy Institute
dialogues with emerging leaders in Papua New Guinea have identified
a range of serious obstacles for young entrepreneurs. These have
included difficulties raising capital, the high cost of renting business
premises, high utility costs, limited internet access, lack of access to
infrastructure in rural areas, safety, and difficulties in sourcing
business inputs.

THE UNREALISED POTENTIAL OF SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE

Papua New Guinea relies on subsistence agriculture to feed
approximately 80 per cent of its population. The rural population’s
ability to feed themselves from crops they grow means the country
largely avoids the severe hunger problems that afflict much of the
developing world. A diet based on subsistence agriculture has also
helped Papua New Guineans avoid the growth of diet-related
non-communicable diseases such as obesity and Type 2 diabetes that
have afflicted their neighbours in Polynesian and Micronesian states
45
(although as noted above, the rates of these diseases are now rising).

While the government has focused on enabling opportunities for the

extractives industry, it has ignored the very substantial job creation and
economic returns that could come from investment in commercialising
subsistence agriculture.

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 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

Growth in PNG primary commodity prices (2000 = 100%)

Source: International Monetary Fund, Primary Commodity Prices Projections.

Subsistence agriculture has shown remarkable durability, failing only

during periods of extreme drought or frost (as experienced in heavily
populated parts of Papua New Guinea in 2015 and 2016). But it is not
the panacea for poverty that most PNG politicians believe. The 2009–
2010 Household Income and Expenditure Survey shows that PNG’s
rural population had a higher incidence of food poverty (28.5 per cent of
46
the population) than the urban population (14.4 per cent). Subsistence
agriculture is also highly vulnerable to changing weather patterns. The
recent El Niño-driven drought in Papua New Guinea has drawn attention
to the vulnerability of rural communities dependent on subsistence
agriculture.

Successful farmers in Papua New Guinea complain that the younger

generation is not interested in tending to family gardens or in commercial The majority of Papua
agricultural ventures. Increasing urbanisation is in part caused by young
New Guineans still
people seeking out work in the formal sector in Port Moresby or Lae. The
majority of school leavers want the security of a formal job with a secure benefit from growing their
wage rather than working their land. own food but could be
The population in urban areas, who are for the most part removed from contributing…more to
their traditional gardens, buy food from markets, street sellers, and the economy…
supermarkets. Imported processed foods have become more popular in
recent years, in part because a capacity to purchase processed foods is
perceived as an indicator of wealth and progress. The majority of Papua
New Guineans still benefit from growing their own food but could be
contributing so much more to the economy with more investment.

GROWING POPULATION
Dame Carol Kidu, former Minister for Community Development in the
Somare government, believes that “rapid population growth and

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 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

increasing, unmanaged urbanisation and underlying social

breakdown” are the biggest challenges Papua New Guinea faces in
47
the next 40 years. The Papua New Guinea Office of Urbanisation
estimates the urban population to be 1.2 million, spread across the three
48
urban centres of Port Moresby, Lae, and Mount Hagen.

The population of Papua New Guinea was recorded at 7.3 million in the
2011 census, a 40 per cent increase since the previous census in 2001
and a 160 per cent increase since the estimated population of 2.8 million
49
at the time of independence. When he launched PNG’s National
Population Policy, Charles Abel, Minister for National Planning,
50
estimated the population would be 30 million by 2050.
51
Port Moresby’s population numbers between 500 000 and 750 000.
Urbanisation presents a Port Moresby benefits from a high level of infrastructure spending, to the
frustration of residents of the rest of the country who complain that it is
complex set of the capital rather than the country that benefits from the resources
challenges for Papua boom. Although it attracts rural dwellers in search of employment, life in
the capital is expensive. The costs of living, particularly in rental
New Guinea.
accommodation, are high. The growth of settlements is putting pressure
on service delivery.

Urbanisation presents a complex set of challenges for Papua New

Guinea. It offers an opportunity to drive GDP growth and improve human
52
development by benefiting from the concentration of the population.
But it also increases the burden on service providers in urban areas as
people who move from rural areas no longer have access to their land
and become less self-sufficient.

PAPUA NEW GUINEA’S FUTURE ON CURRENT TRENDS

Without a serious effort to reverse some or all of these negative trends
and make more of the positive ones, PNG’s future looks bleak. It is not
just that each of these trends will have a negative impact on the country,
but that the trends are mutually reinforcing.

By 2050 PNG’s population is likely to be around 30 million people. A

young and growing population is not necessarily a bad thing: harnessed in
the right way it can be a real boon for a developing country economy. But
it will also place considerable demand on both PNG’s natural resources
and its national infrastructure. Without substantial investments in
commercialising agriculture, subsistence agriculture will struggle to meet
the population’s food needs, leaving aside any impact of climate change.
This could in turn result in increased conflicts over land in rural areas,
exacerbating PNG’s law and order challenge. The result will be a growing
need to import food, including a continuation and perhaps strengthening of
the current trend towards the importation of processed foods.

A growing need to import food will, in turn, have an impact on the

incidence of non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular

13
 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

disease and Type 2 diabetes as has been the case in other parts of the
Pacific. Communicable diseases will increase, including vaccine-
resistant strains. In general, the health system will struggle to cope with
the increased population, particularly outside urban centres. Against this,
however, as broadband services expand, improvements in telehealth
services will probably improve some outcomes in rural Papua New
Guinea, making it easier for health professionals to diagnose and treat
patients. The use of mobile phone medical apps will also likely increase,
improving the storage and transmission of medical records, including
evidence of vaccinations.

More Papua New Guineans — and, importantly, more girls — will go to

school as the nation seeks to realise the ambitious objectives for
53
improving access to education set out in the Vision 2050 framework.
But this is unlikely to have a significant impact on educational outcomes
and skill levels as a growing population overwhelms an education
infrastructure that is already struggling. This will mean that even as
Papua New Guinea captures new overseas investments in its extractives
sector, most Papua New Guineans will not feel the benefits. Nor, indeed,
will they be able to participate in other growing parts of the economy that
require skills, creating an even larger informal sector in the economy. This
will reinforce the trend towards declining law and order.

On current trends, the police to population ratio is not likely to increase to

the levels envisaged by the PNG Government by 2050 because of
budgetary constraints. The performance of the police force is unlikely to The resources sector
improve markedly without significant institutional reform or sustained has strong potential and
good leadership. The flow-on effects of declining law and order will be
can provide continued
significant, not least economically. Businesses will incur even higher
costs to provide for their own security. Poor law and order will raise economic growth for
significant barriers to entry for the creation of small to medium Papua New Guinea if
enterprises and dissuade a significant expansion of foreign investment
beyond the extractives sector. It will be harder to attract teachers and
managed well.
health workers to troubled parts of the Highlands or other high crime
areas. Realising PNG’s full potential as a tourist destination will face
serious limits.

The resources sector has strong potential and can provide continued
economic growth for Papua New Guinea if managed well. This could
deliver a number of benefits, including boosts to government revenues,
better health and education services for the areas hosting foreign
company investment, and a small number of jobs for skilled Papua New
Guineans.

But growth in the resources sector will also increase the opportunities for
corruption. Indeed, the further deterioration in the performance of the
public sector will make it more difficult to fight corruption as well as
manage many of the other challenges Papua New Guinea will face in
the future. The failure to develop robust institutions, establish a credible

14
 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

sovereign wealth fund, create greater capacity in the national public

sector and, ultimately, to build a national government which is trusted to
deliver essential services will change the nature of the state of Papua
New Guinea. Parts of the country will become even more disconnected
from the centre. Meanwhile, the position of prime minister will become
increasingly powerful. As the ultimate distributor of government funds,
the prime minister can ensure the loyalty of members of parliament
through payments to them under the District Services Improvement
Reporting of corruption in
Program. As this program also transfers responsibility for service
the traditional media and delivery to the member of parliament in their local area, the prime
on social media…will minister and key ministers can avoid being held to account for any
failures to improve essential services.
likely continue.
As corruption increases so too will civil society efforts to fight it. Already
there are a number of anti-corruption crusaders in Papua New Guinea
whose investigations and advocacy are gaining traction with the public.
Task Force Sweep, an anti-corruption agency established by Prime
Minister Peter O’Neill and later disbanded by him when Sam Koim, its
Chairman, investigated the prime minister’s own dealings, was well
54
regarded by the younger generation in Papua New Guinea. Reporting
of corruption in the traditional media and on social media platforms is
relatively free and will likely continue. PNG’s courts will remain
independent and a small number of corruption cases against members
of parliament, including cabinet ministers, will continue to be
successively prosecuted.

All of this will also have consequences for Australia, which, thanks to its
geographic proximity, will continue to try to shape positive trends in its
nearest neighbour. Papua New Guinea will remain the largest recipient
of Australian aid but risks becoming an even more difficult environment
in which to deliver aid effectively. The Australian private sector will
maintain interests in the resources and finance sector but will be
challenged if law and order worsens. Should there be a complete
breakdown of law and order, Australia will be expected to step in. The
Australian Government has a consular responsibility to protect Australian
citizens and businesses affected by a breakdown of law and order in
Papua New Guinea. There is also an expectation in the international
community that Australia is best placed to respond to a crisis in Papua
New Guinea. If Australia were to duck that responsibility, it may well be
taken up by others.

The geographic proximity of Australia’s Torres Strait Islands to PNG’s

Western Province, which plays host to several communicable diseases,
means PNG’s health challenges may also become Australia’s health
challenges. More than 160 people in a population of 15 000 on Daru
Island, the closest point to Australia, have already developed drug-
55
resistant tuberculosis — the highest rate in the world. On current
trends this risk is only likely to grow.

15
 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

Australia needs a strong Papua New Guinea to contribute to regional

peace and prosperity in the Pacific Islands region, including through
showing political leadership in the region. Slow progress in development
and poor law and order will distract from and undermine the PNG
Government’s ability to project its influence internationally over the long
term.

If Papua New Guinea does not fulfil its promise, it will mean a significant
lost opportunity for Australia. The development of a more prosperous
middle class, for example, could benefit the Australian economy — with
a new capacity for Papua New Guineans to purchase Australian goods
and services, including education services.

HOW TO RESHAPE PNG’S FUTURE

The scenario outlined above is not inevitable. But it will take a significant
effort across all sectors of PNG society, as well as friends such as Australia needs a strong
Australia, to avoid this scenario and reshape the country’s future. It will Papua New Guinea to
also be necessary to think creatively about how these challenges are
confronted. In the past the tendency has been to try to address all the contribute to regional
various challenges Papua New Guinea faces at the same time, peace and prosperity in
distributing limited financial resources all too thinly. The results have
the Pacific Islands region.
been mixed at best.

Papua New Guinea’s next generation of leaders will face an extremely

complex set of challenges. They have a near impossible task in seeking
to strengthen the nation’s institutions. The risk is that, like their
predecessors, they won’t make national institutions sufficiently strong
and effective to enable progress in development or win the respect of the
people. With limits to the numbers of skilled people future leaders will
have to draw on, it may be necessary to focus on a number of key
institutions, rather than seek to improve the performance of all
government agencies. Evidence gathered from successful institution-
building in other challenging environments shows that change can be
achieved when driven by coalitions of reform-minded mid-level
bureaucrats who seek to tackle a limited number of problems rather than
56
trying to transform the institution as a whole. Providing political support
to such coalitions will be important.

Just as critically, the next generation of leaders needs to make tangible

gains in key areas of development, at the same time that they enhance
the quality and effectiveness of national institutions. Again, rather than
attempting to solve every problem in the country simultaneously, future
leaders should pick a few areas where bold and innovative policy
interventions can make a transformational difference and unblock
barriers to progress.

Four areas hold particular promise as potential circuit breakers, and

could also help the country tackle a range of negative trends.

16
 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

A new national investment in education: Papua New Guinea needs to

improve the quality of its education even as it improves the quantity. The
national investment required to deliver high-quality education for all
young Papua New Guineans is almost certainly unaffordable. But
progress can still be achieved in some areas. A local model already
exists. Since 1999 the provincial government of Enga prioritised the
provision of quality education services. This has seen high numbers of
Engan students qualifying for university entry and obtaining public sector
positions. This model involved an investment in teachers and subsidies
for families to send their children to school. Partnerships between
institutions in Enga and foreign educational institutions have enabled
further positive results at the tertiary level. While it may not be possible to
replicate Enga’s success on a national scale, the experience of the
Engan provincial government demonstrates that prioritising one area of
public policy and devoting resources to it can deliver results.

Papua New Guinea’s education history also holds another model that
future generations could consider. The nation’s first leaders were
educated within a network of four national high schools that not only
delivered high standards of education but engendered a sense of
collective leadership, which itself is vital for nation-building. A new
investment in providing the highest quality education at a small number
of national high schools could provide new incentives to drive the longer-
term expansion of quality education across the country and also
guarantee the development of future generations of leaders. This model
would mean the best students from across the country would be
selected rather than only being available to students whose families can
afford to pay. While this model would favour the education of a small
group of people over the majority, it may be necessary to accept that in
the medium term higher quality education for all is not possible. Indeed,
the vast majority of school leavers will not find jobs in the formal sector in
urban areas and will need skills to make their lives in agriculture rather
than in urban professional settings.

…by targeting access to A major electrification and telecommunications infrastructure effort in

remote areas: PNG’s future leaders can accelerate improvements in
electricity by means that health and education by a creative focus on other inputs which will
are appropriate for rural improve people’s lives. For example, by targeting access to electricity by
means that are appropriate for rural communities, other options for
communities, other
improving health become available. Hospital and health clinics can treat
options for improving patients more effectively with a reliable power supply. Likewise,
health become available. improvements in 3G coverage could enable the spread of telehealth
services. Online education options for remote communities become
more realistic with both 3G coverage and a reliable power supply. ANZ’s
2015 Insight report, “Powering PNG into the Asian Century”,
recommends Papua New Guinea embrace a range of new energy
generation and storage technologies, such as solar photovoltaic, micro-
hydro, and biomass, tailored to local communities and enabled by
targeted private sector investment. 57 Choosing a select number of rural

17
 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

locations that would benefit from tailored investments in electrification

could act as a circuit breaker for service delivery and for small business
development in those areas.

Tailored approaches to improve law and order: Reforming, improving,

and expanding the RPNGC to a level that would produce effective
performance and results in reducing crime is a near impossible task for
PNG’s next generation of leaders. It would require radical reforms and
funding on a scale that would not be possible without taking financial
resources away from other critical services or a massive external
assistance package that ultimately may not deliver the improved law and
order that will make Papua New Guinea a safer place to live, do
business, and visit.

Rather than tackle radical reform, a small-scale initiative to determine the

most effective drivers in reducing crime would be a cheaper alternative
that could influence future reform. There is international evidence that
suggests that targeting ‘hot spots’ in a holistic way can reduce crime
58
levels. A multifaceted initiative which focuses police attention on one
high crime location, with support from private security firms to prevent …improvements in
crimes, could have a number of benefits. The state would need to
subsistence food
ensure capacity for courts to prosecute criminal cases quickly, deliver
medical care and maintain safe houses for women and children who are production and better
victims of domestic violence. The provision of rehabilitation programs for access to markets…is
minor criminals, and education or work programs for young people who
are identified as likely to commit crime in this area would also be
the most effective way
important. The government would need to engage with private sector of guaranteeing food
partners to deliver such an initiative but as the private sector has a security…
vested interest in improved law and order, it might be possible to
negotiate pro bono assistance for such a project.

A major effort to develop and commercialise subsistence agriculture:

Growing the formal sector to create jobs for the increasing population is
a major challenge. As urbanisation increases, formal sector employment
struggles to keep up. Efforts and investment in job creation would be
better focused on assisting subsistence farmers to commercialise their
activities. Agricultural expert Michael Bourke argues that Papua New
Guinea has good food security that has been enhanced by changes in
59
subsistence agriculture and access to cash income. He believes
improvements in subsistence food production and better access to
markets to increase cash income for the poorest rural dwellers is the
most effective way of guaranteeing food security into the future. The next
generation of leaders should focus on strategic investments in
infrastructure (roads, airports, electricity, broadband access) in a number
of rural centres, rather than predominantly investing in Port Moresby.
This will enable better market access and secure supply chains, and
encourage private domestic and foreign investment in commercial
agriculture. Investments could be enhanced by mobilising external

18
 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

assistance from bilateral donors and multilateral banks for the

development of agriculture.

HOW AUSTRALIA CAN HELP

Australia’s interest in PNG’s success will endure and even grow over the
next 40 years. Apart from its geographic proximity and consequent
security relevance to Australia, PNG’s growing population, the growth of
its trade with Australia and with Australia’s primary trading partners, its
vast endowment of natural resources, its agricultural potential and its
expanding regional leadership ambitions mean it will be an important
partner for Australia forever.

Although foreign aid has been the primary tool for the Australian
Government to help Papua New Guinea to date, there are a range of
other approaches for engaging with Papua New Guinea. Encouraging
the Australian private sector to play a greater role in service delivery in
PNG’s health and education systems and in energy generation could
result in more efficiencies.

There is more the Australian Government can do to address corruption

in Papua New Guinea. Working with Australian banks and other financial
institutions to prevent the proceeds of corruption being invested or
laundered in Australia would make it more difficult for corrupt individuals
to send the proceeds of their crime abroad. Providing more assistance to
PNG investigators would help ensure more cases are heard in court and
legal consequences felt.

The Australian aid program supports vocational and technical training in

Papua New Guinea and scholarships for postgraduate study in Australia.
The Australian Government could do more to support higher education
in Papua New Guinea, including through offering scholarships for
undergraduate study in Australian institutions. This would relieve
pressure on PNG universities and allow them time to focus on
enhancing the quality of their teaching.

While the Australian Government of the day has to deliver aid to and
…the Australian with the PNG Government of the day, it also needs to find time to listen
Government of the to PNG’s future leaders. It is investing in a governance facility to
encourage better public sector leadership that will help young public
day…needs to find servants. The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade supports a
time to listen to Dialogue of Australian and Papua New Guinean emerging leaders,
PNG’s future leaders. hosted by the Lowy Institute. Australia, like Papua New Guinea, hopes
the younger generation can put their country on a better development
trajectory. Given the frustrations with the impact of the aid program on
development to date, the Australian Government will also be hoping that
aid can be put to better effect in the future.

A more systematic effort by the Australian Government to engage with

emerging leaders — in the private sector, civil society, and in

19
 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

government would enable a better understanding in Australia of the

dynamics of the younger generation. Many young Papua New Guineans Many young Papua New
have clear ideas about how they can change their country for the better,
Guineans have clear
and they are highly capable and enthusiastic about contributing to the
sustainable development of their nation. Australian aid and private sector ideas about how they
investment could be mobilised to help these young leaders implement can change their country
their ideas and exercise leadership in the near term rather than waiting
another 20 years for them to occupy senior decision-making positions.
for the better…
Innovation is sorely needed in Papua New Guinea. Australia can support
young policy innovators to drive change, even if only in one region or
sector, to produce effective results and inspire a whole generation.

CONCLUSION
Papua New Guinea, with its vast endowment of resources, abundant
food sources, and young population should be looking forward to
increasing the living standards of its people over the long term. But
current trends, particularly in governance, education, health, and law and
order, temper optimism about the nation’s prospects.

The task of arresting negative trends and improving living standards is a

daunting one for PNG’s emerging leaders. When they take responsibility
for making decisions for the nation, they will face very similar obstacles
to achieving progress that current and previous leaders have faced.
They are under intense pressure to strengthen the nation’s existing
institutions, but the reality is that these institutions are not capable of
delivering the service that Papua New Guineans demand and need.
Rather than trying to solve all of the nation’s problems simultaneously, a
new generation of leaders should focus on a limited number of problems
first. Enlisting the support of business, civil society, and Australian
partners, they can make policy interventions that create more
opportunities for PNG’s growing youth population and ultimately turn
around the nation’s negative development trajectory.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to extend my sincere thanks to the alumni from the Lowy Institute’s
Australia-PNG Emerging Leaders Dialogue, supported by DFAT and by GE, who
inspired me to write this paper. The passion, commitment, enthusiasm and
creativity of the PNG participants in the Dialogue offer hope to everyone
interested in PNG’s future. I acknowledge in particular the leadership of Serena
Sumanop, Founder and Executive Director of The Voice Inc., PNG, and co-chair
with me of the Emerging Leaders Dialogue, who has done so much to create and
inspire the next generation of leaders in Papua New Guinea. I would also like to
thank my Lowy Institute colleagues, Anthony Bubalo, Lydia Papandrea, Jonathan
Pryke, Anna Kirk, Nonresident Fellows Sean Dorney and Annmaree O’Keeffe,
and interns Steven Paisi, Lawrence Gerry, Chloe Hickey-Jones and Alastair
Davis, who have all assisted me in researching, writing and editing this paper.

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 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

NOTES
1
Sean Dorney, The Embarrassed Colonialist, A Lowy Institute Paper
(Melbourne: Penguin, 2016), 120.
2
Australian Government Department of Defence, 2016 Defence White Paper,
http://www.defence.gov.au/whitepaper/Docs/2016-Defence-White-Paper.pdf.
3
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, “Papua New Guinea Fact Sheet”,
http://dfat.gov.au/trade/resources/Documents/png.pdf.
4
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, “Australian Aid to Papua New
Guinea: Aid Fact Sheet”, http://dfat.gov.au/about-us/publications/Documents/aid-
fact-sheet-papua-new-guinea.pdf.
5
Papua New Guinea Government, “Papua New Guinea Vision 2050”,
https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/1496png.pdf.
6
Papua New Guinea Department of National Planning and Monitoring, “National
Strategy for Responsible Sustainable Development for Papua New Guinea”, 2nd
Edition, January 2014, http://www.planning.gov.pg/images/dnpm/pdf/StaRS.pdf.
7
Jenny Hayward-Jones, “Papua New Guinea in 2015 — At a Crossroads and
Beyond”, Lowy Institute PNG Roundtable Summary Record, May 2015,
http://www.lowyinstitute.org/files/papua-new-guinea-in-2015-at-a-crossroads-
and-beyond.pdf.
8
In 1999/2000, governance projects in the aid program accounted for 20 per
cent of Australian aid spending in Papua New Guinea. In 2009/10, this had
increased to 36 per cent. In 2015/16, this has decreased to 23 per cent but is still
a high priority.
9
In 2015, the Australian Government launched the Pacific Leadership and
Governance Precinct designed to strengthen public sector leadership in
Papua New Guinea, committing A$91.6 million between 2014 and 2019.
Australia also spent A$200.7 million between 2009 and 2015 on the
Strongim Gavman Program aimed at assisting the PNG Government to
strengthen public sector performance. And between 2011 and 2016
A$115.7 million was spent on the PNG–Australia Economic and Public Sector
Program — “a partnership to support the PNG public service at the national
and sub-national levels to function more effectively and deliver essential
services such as health, education and transport to the people of PNG”: see
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, “Development Assistance in Papua
New Guinea”, http://dfat.gov.au/geo/papua-new-guinea/development-
assistance/Pages/governance-assistance-png.aspx.
10
World Bank, “Worldwide Governance Indicators: Country Data Report for
Papua New Guinea, 1996–2014”,
http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/pdf/c176.pdf.
11
Transparency International, “Corruption Perceptions Index 2015”,
http://www.transparency.org/cpi2015#results-table.
12
“Review of the PNG–Australia Development Cooperation Treaty (1999)”,
19 April 2010, http://www.oecd.org/countries/papuanewguinea/45827611.pdf.

21
 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

13
The World Bank Group, “Trends in Crime and Violence in Papua New
Guinea”, Paper No 1, May 2014,
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/05/20037306/trends-crime-
violence-papua-new-guinea.
14
Ibid.
15
The Economist Intelligence Unit, Global Liveability Index, August 2015,
http://media.heraldsun.com.au/files/liveability.pdf.
16
Human Rights Watch, World Report 2015: Papua New Guinea,
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2015/country-chapters/papua-new-guinea.
17
World Bank, “The Costs of Crime and Violence in Papua New Guinea”,
15 August 2014, http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/08/15/the-
costs-of-crime-and-violence-in-papua-new-guinea.
18
David Connery and Karl Claxton, “Shared Interests, Enduring Cooperation:
The Future of Australia–PNG Police Engagement”, Australian Strategic Policy
Institute, 8 October 2014, 26.
19
Ibid.
20
Papua New Guinea Government, “Papua New Guinea Vision 2050”.
21
Papua New Guinea Department of Treasury, 2015 National Budget:
Volume 1 — Economic and Development Policies,
http://www.treasury.gov.pg/html/national_budget/files/2015/Vol1-
Economic%20and%20Development%20Policies.pdf.
22
World Bank, “The Costs of Crime and Violence in Papua New Guinea”.
23
Pacific Islands Report, “Security Services Fastest Growing Industry in Papua
New Guinea”, 15 May 2015, http://pidp.eastwestcenter.org/pireport/2015/May/05-
15-10.htm.
24
United Nations Development Program, 2014 National Human Development
Report: Papua New Guinea, 42, http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/papua-new-
guinea-national-human-development-report-2014.
25
Ibid, 46.
26
Ibid, 43.
27
Ibid, 46.
28
Ibid, 43.
29
Ibid.
30
Ibid.
31
World Health Organization and the National Department of Health, Papua New
Guinea, “Health Service Delivery Profile: Papua New Guinea, 2012”,
http://www.wpro.who.int/health_services/service_delivery_profile_papua_new_gu
inea.pdf.
32
Australian Doctors International, “PNG Health Statistics”,
http://www.adi.org.au/health-in-png-2/png-health-statistic/.
33
World Health Organization, “Global Health Observatory Country Views: Papua
New Guinea Statistics Summary (2002 — present)”,
http://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.country.country-PNG?lang=en.

22
 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

34
United Nations Development Program, “Table 1: Human Development Index
and its Components”, in Human Development Report 2015 (New York: UNDP,
2015), http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/HDI.
35
United Nations Development Program, 2014 National Human Development
Report: Papua New Guinea, 50.
36
“South Africa’s First Democratic President, Nelson Mandela, In His Own
Words”, Constitutionally Speaking, 6 December 2013,
http://constitutionallyspeaking.co.za/south-africas-first-democratic-president-
nelson-mandela-in-his-own-words/.
37
Rowan Callick, “Diverse Nation ‘Example to World’”, The Australian,
16 September 2015.
38
Grant Walton, Anthony Swan and Stephen Howse, “Papua New Guinea’s
Tuition Fee-Free Policy: Is it Working?”, DevPolicy Blog,
http://devpolicy.org/pngs-tuition-fee-free-policy-is-it-working-20141210/.
39
Malum Nalu, “PNG Universities are Full to Capacity: Secretary”,
Pacific Islands Report, 5 February 2016,
http://pidp.eastwestcenter.org/pireport/2016/February/02-05-
05.htm#.VrQQ9HudBg8.twitter.
40
World Bank, World Development Report 2013: Jobs,
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTNWDR2013/Resources/8258024-
1320950747192/8260293-1322665883147/WDR_2013_Report.pdf.
41
Ibid.
42
Asian Development Bank, “Pacific Economic Monitor Midyear Review”, July
2014, http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/42675/pem-july-2014.pdf.
43
Ibid.
44
World Bank, Doing Business 2016: Measuring Regulatory Quality and
Efficiency (Washington DC: World Bank, 2016),
http://www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/GIAWB/Doing%20Business/Documents/A
nnual-Reports/English/DB16-Full-Report.pdf.
45
World Bank, “Pacific Islands: Non-Communicable Disease Roadmap”, 12 July
2014, http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/07/11/pacific-islands-non-
communicable-disease-roadmap.
46
United Nations Development Program, 2014 National Human Development
Report: Papua New Guinea, 30.
47
ABC Radio Australia, “Founding Fathers Reflect on PNG Independence and
the Challenges Ahead”, Pacific Beat, 16 September 2015,
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-16/founding-fathers-reflect-on-png-
independence-and/6779324.
48
Paul Jones, “Managing Urbanisation in Papua New Guinea: Planning for
Planning’s Sake?”, Working Paper Series Two, No 33, Alfred Deakin Research
Institute, file:///wps+33w.pdf.
49
PNG National Statistics Office, “National Population and Housing Census
2011”, available at http://www.nso.gov.pg/index.php/population.
50
Isaac Nicholas, “National Population Policy Launched in PNG Parliament”,
Pacific Islands Report, 19 February 2015,
http://pidp.eastwestcenter.org/pireport/2015/February/02-19-02.htm.

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 THE FUTURE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA: OLD CHALLENGES FOR NEW LEADERS

51
Paul Jones, “Managing Urbanisation in Papua New Guinea: Planning for
Planning’s Sake?”.
52
Ibid.
53
Papua New Guinea Government, “Papua New Guinea Vision 2050”.
54
Liam Cochrane, “PNG Anti-Corruption Taskforce Broke after Making
Allegations against Prime Minister O’Neill”, 5 February 2015,
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-04/png-anti-corruption-taskforce-starved-of-
funding/6070170.
55
Eric Tzolek, “Tuberculosis Outbreak in Papua New Guinea Worsens, as
Health Workers Plead for Promised Funding”, ABC News, 11 January 2016,
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-11/png-authorities-fail-to-deliver-
tuberculosis-funding/7078144.
56
Tim Williamson, “Change in Challenging Contexts: How Does it Happen?”,
September 2015, http://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-
opinion-files/9829.pdf.
57
ANZ, “Powering PNG into the Asian Century”, ANZ Insight, Issue 6, August
2015, http://www.pjpl.com.au/media/34190/150811%20-
%20powering%20png%20into%20the%20asian%20century%20report.pdf.
58
Creative Associates International, “Advancing a Holistic, Balanced Approach to
Citizen Security”, http://www.creativeassociatesinternational.com/citizen-
security/.
59
R Michael Bourke, “An Overview of Food Security in PNG”, in Food Security
for Papua New Guinea, eds RM Bourke, MG Allen and JG Salisbury (Canberra:
Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, 2001), Proceedings of
the Papua New Guinea Food and Nutrition 2000 Conference, PNG University of
Technology, Lae, ACIAR Proceedings No 99,
http://aciar.gov.au/files/node/306/0001pr99chapter1.pdf.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jenny Hayward-Jones is Director of the Melanesia Program at the Lowy
Institute. Prior to joining the Lowy Institute Jenny was an officer in the
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade for thirteen years, serving in the
Australian missions in Vanuatu and Turkey. She worked as Policy
Adviser to the Special Coordinator of the Regional Assistance Mission to
Solomon Islands from its inception in July 2003 and in 2004. Jenny holds
a BA (Hons) in political science from Macquarie University; her Masters
thesis for Monash University focused on governance and political
change in Vanuatu. Jenny’s interests focus on Australian policy in the
Pacific Islands region, political and social change in Melanesia, and the
strategic and economic challenges facing Pacific Islands in the Asian
century. She is the author of two Policy Briefs on Fiji and several reports
from major conferences on regional issues, on Papua New Guinea and
on Solomon Islands that she has convened in Australia, New Zealand
and Solomon Islands.
Jenny Hayward-Jones

Jenny Hayward-Jones
[email protected]
Level 3, 1 Bligh Street Tel: +61 2 8238 9000 www.lowyinstitute.org
Sydney NSW 2000 Australia Fax: +61 2 8238 9005 twitter: @lowyinstitute