Probability theory examples

1). An ice-cream seller has to decide whether to order more stock for the Bank
Holiday weekend. He estimates that, if the weather is sunny, he has a 90%
chance of selling all his stock; if it is cloudy, his chance is 60%; and if it rains,
his chance is only 20%. According to the weather forecast, the probability of
sunshine is 30%, the probability of cloud is 45%, and the probability of rain is
25%. (We assume that these are all the possible outcomes, so that their
probabilities must add up to 100%.) What is the overall probability that the
salesman will sell all his stock?

2). A manufacturer of tablets receives its LED screens from three different
suppliers, 60% from supplier B1, 30% from supplier B2, and 10% from supplier
B3. Also suppose that 95% of the LED screens from B1, 80% of those from B2,
and 65% of those from B3 perform according to specifications. It is required to
know the probability that any one LED screen received by the plant will
perform according to specifications.

3) Students in a math class where 40% are males and 60% are females took a
test. 50% of the males and 70% of the females passed the test. What percent of
students passed the test?

4)Three factories produce light bulbs to supply the market. Factory A produces
20%, 50% of the tools are produced in factories B and 30% in factory C.
2% of the bulbs produced in factory A, 1% of the bulbs produced in factory B
and 3% of the bulbs produced in factory C are defective.A bulb is selected at
random in the market and found to be defective. what is the probability that this
bulb was produced by factory B?

5)The economist believes that the probability of stock price increase next year is
0.75 if the country's economy develops, and 0.3 otherwise. The probability of
the country's economy developing in the next year is 0.8. Find the probability
that the stock price will increase in the next year.

6)The probability that the customer will not repay the loan is 0.04 during
economic growth and 0.13 during an economic crisis. Let's assume that the
probability of economic growth beginning is 0.65. What is the probability that a
randomly selected customer will not be able to repay the loan?
7)Companies A,B,C manufacture screens used for a particular type of
computer. The supplied proportions of screens for
companies A,B,C are 0.5,0.3,0.2, such that 0.01,0.02,0.03 are defective,
respectively. Given that the screen on such a computer is defective, what is the
probability that Company A manufactured it?

8)Find the variance and standard deviation of the following probability

distribution table

X 0 1 2 3

P(X) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3

9)The number of cars sold per day at a local car dealership, along with its
corresponding probabilities, is shown in the table. Compute for the mean,
variance, and standard deviation of the probability distribution of the random
variable X.
X 0 1 2 3 4 5
P 0,1 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,2 0,1

10) Compute mean, variance, and standard deviation of the probability

distribution of the random variable X.
X -5 2 3 4
p 0,4 0,3 0,1 0,2

11)Let’s say that 80% of all business startups in the IT industry report that they
generate a profit in their first year. If a sample of 10 new IT business startups is
selected, find the probability that exactly seven will generate a profit in their
first year.

12)There are 4 commercial banks operating in the city, each of which has a 10%
probability of bankruptcy during the year. Formulate the distribution of the
number of banks likely to fail over the next year. Find the numerical
characteristics of this distribution.
13) 20% of employees in any company prefer to come to work by their own car.
Set the distribution law for the number of people who come to work by car from
4 randomly selected employees. Find the mathematical expectation and
variance.

14)On each day we play a lottery in which the probability of winning

is 1%.What is the expected value of the number of days that will elapse before
we win for the first time?

15) Suppose we are playing a game of soccer. The probability of getting a goal
is 0.2. What is the probability we will get a goal on the third try?

16) If the probability of success for a candidate in a voting campaign is 0.5,

what is the probability to meet a voter who voted for the winning candidate on
your fourth try?

17) Suppose you are playing a game of darts. The probability of success is 0.4.
What is the probability that you will hit the bullseye on the third try?

18) If 3% of electronic units manufactured by a company are defective. Find the

probability that in a sample of 200 units, less than 2 bulbs are defective.

19) Find the expected value and variance of a continuous random variable that
follows a pdf given by
𝑓(𝑥 ) = 1 + 𝑥 2 + 3𝑥 3 where 𝑥 ∈ (0,1)

20) A continuous random variable X has probability density function defined as:
3 2
𝑓 (𝑥 ) = { 𝑥 ,0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 2
8
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒
Calculate the mean and variance
21) Calculate the expected value and variance of the random variable X that is
uniformly distributed on the interval [1,5].
22) X is a normally distributed variable with mean μ = 30 and standard
deviation σ = 4. Find the probability P(30 < X < 35)=?

23) There are 4 commercial banks operating in the city, each of which has
a 10% probability of bankruptcy during the year. Formulate the
distribution of the number of banks likely to fail over the next year. Find
the numerical characteristics of this distribution.

24) For certain types of computers, the length of time between charges of the
battery is normally distributed with a mean of 50 hours and a standard deviation
of 15 hours. John owns one of these computers and wants to know the
probability that the length of time will be between 50 and 70 hours.

25) From the following joint distribution of X and Y find

X
1 3 5
Y
2 0,2 0,1 0
4 0,1 0,2 0,1
6 0 0,1 0,2

a) expected value of two-dimensional random variable

b) Covariance coefficient of the two-dimensional random variables
c) Correlation coefficient of the two-dimensional random variables

26) A biased coin, which lands heads with probability 1/10 each time it is
flipped, is flipped 200 times consecutively. Give an upper bound on the
probability that it lands heads at least 120 times.
27). A coin is weighted so that its probability of landing on heads is 20%,
independently of other flips. Suppose the coin is flipped 20 times. Use
Markov’s inequality to bound the probability it lands on heads at least 16 times
28) . The daily demand for water in any settlement is 50,000 l. Find the
probability that the demand for water will exceed 150,000 l in the next few days
29). During one of the stock market sales, the company's share price change
percentage is 0.3%. Find the probability that the stock will not change by less
than 3% in subsequent stock sales.

Mathematical statistics

1. Based on the following selection, find the empirical function and draw the
graph.
xi 1 3 6 26
ni 8 40 10 2

2. Based on the following selection, find the sample mean and sample variance:
 xi 10 20 30 
 
 ni 15 20 25 

3. Based on the following selection, find :

a)the empirical function and draw the graph
b)sample mean
c) sample variance
xi 1 4 6 10
ni 10 15 25 30
 4)Based on the following selection, find the empirical function and draw
the graph.

xi 3 5 10
ni 12 15 35

5).A sample of 100 measurements at breaking strength of cotton thread gave a

mean of 7.4 and a standard deviation of 1.2 gms. Find 95% confidence limits
for the mean breaking strength of cotton thread. (𝑍𝛼⁄2 = 1.64).

6). The mean life time of a sample of 169 light bulbs manufactured by a
company is found to be 1350 hours with a standard deviation of 100 hours.
Establish 90% confidence limits within which the mean life time of light bulbs
is expected to lie. (𝑍𝛼⁄2 = 1.64).
7). A large company conducted a series of tests to determine how much data
individual users stored on the file server. So, a random sample of 15 users
revealed an average of 15.32 GB with a standard deviation of 0.18 GB. What is
the interval that contains the actual company user average? Test at the 95%
confidence level (𝑍𝛼⁄2 = 1.64).

8). The mean length of the 25 parts plastic injection molding process is 4.32 cm
with a standard deviation of 0.17 cm. What is the 95% confidence interval for
the actual mean of this process?

9). A principal at a certain school claims that the students in his school are
above average intelligence. A random sample of thirty students IQ scores have
a mean score of 112.5. Is there sufficient evidence to support the principal’s
claim? The mean population IQ is 100 with a standard deviation of 15.

10). Blood glucose levels for obese patients have a mean of 100 with a
standard deviation of 15. A researcher thinks that a diet high in raw
cornstarch will have a positive or negative effect on blood glucose levels. A
sample of 30 patients who have tried the raw cornstarch diet have a mean
glucose level of 140. Test the hypothesis that the raw cornstarch had an
effect. (𝑍𝑐𝑟 = 1.64).
11). A sample of 200 people has a mean age of 21 with a population standard
deviation (σ) of 5. Tes Example 6. Suppose a researcher claims that the mean
average weight of men is greater than 100kgs with a standard deviation of
15kgs. 30 men are chosen with an average weight of 112.5 Kgs. Using
hypothesis testing, check if there is enough evidence to support the
researcher's claim. The confidence interval is given as 95%. (𝑍𝑐𝑟 = 1.64).

12). The average score on a test is 80 with a standard deviation of 10. With a
new teaching curriculum introduced it is believed that this score will change.
On random testing, the score of 38 students, the mean was found to be 88.
With a 0.05 significance level, is there any evidence to support this claim?
(𝑍𝑐𝑟 = 1.64).

13) Suppose a researcher claims that the mean average weight of men is
greater than 100kgs with a standard deviation of 15kgs. 30 men are chosen
with an average weight of 112.5 Kgs. Using hypothesis testing, check if
there is enough evidence to support the researcher's claim. The confidence
interval is given as 95%. (𝑍𝑐𝑟 = 1.64).

14) The average score of a class is 90. However, a teacher believes that the
average score might be lower. The scores of 6 students were randomly
measured. The mean was 82 with a standard deviation of 18. With a 0.05
significance level use hypothesis testing to check if this claim is true. (𝑍𝑐𝑟 =
1.64).

15)Calculate the Spearman’s Rank Correlation between the two and interpret
the result.
Rank Students
1 2 3 4
İCT 8 3 1 4
Statistics 6 4 3 2
16. Calculate the Spearman’s Rank Correlation between the two and interpret
the result.
ri 2 4 5 1 7,5
si 2,5 6 4 1 2,5

17. Calculate Kendall’s Tau correlation between the two and interpret the result:
xi 8 7 9 10 5 6 4 3 2 1
yi 9 6 8 10 5 7 4 2 3 1
.