KR Choksey Report
KR Choksey Report
Tata Consumer Products Ltd. Resilient performance amid cost headwinds; gradual recovery on the horizon
CMP* Target Potential Upside Market Cap (INR Mn) Recommendation Sector
INR 1,156 INR 1,278 10.6% 11,43,860 ACCUMULATE Consumer
Result highlights
TCPL’s Q4FY25 consolidated revenue stood at INR 46,082 Mn up 17.3% YoY (+3.7% QoQ), which was above our estimates by 1.7%.
EBITDA came it at INR 6,210 Mn down1.4% YoY (+10.0% QoQ), which was below our estimates by 4.5% driven by higher-than-
expected operating expenses. EBITDA margin contracted by -256 bps YoY (+77 bps QoQ) to 13.5%. Adj. net profit stood at INR
2,995 Mn up 30.7% YoY (+5.1% QoQ), which was below our estimate driven by higher-than-expected depreciation and exceptional
items recorded for the quarter.
We revise our FY26E/FY27E EPS estimate -1.0%/+5.0%, reflecting near-term pressure led by inflation, and recovery in margins
alongside a gradual rebound in volume growth in outer year, particularly within the core India Foods and Beverages businesses.
We expect Revenue/EBITDA/Adj. PAT to grow at CAGR 15.5%/23.7%/34.2%, respectively, over FY25-FY27E. The stock is currently
trading at P/E of 61.7x/49.1 on FY26E/ FY27E EPS, respectively. We value Tata consumer at a P/E multiple of 54x on FY27E EPS,
implying a target price of INR 1,278. We maintain our ‘ACCUMULATE’ rating on Tata Consumer Products Ltd.
Apr-24
Apr-25
Oct-23
Oct-22
Oct-24
driven by pricing and mid-single-digit volume growth. The value-added salt portfolio
expanded by 31.0% YoY, contributing to a 30-bps market share gain. The Tata Sampan
portfolio continued to show strong growth of 30.0% YoY, while Tata Soulful reported 32.0%
TATACONSUM SENSEX YoY growth in FY25.
For Q4FY25, Nourishco’s Ready-to-Drink (RTD) business reported revenue of INR 2,120 Mn,
increased by 10.0% YoY, with strong volume growth of 17.0% YoY. For FY25, RTD volume grew
MARKET INFO
by 13.0% YoY, and revenue was up by 2.0% YoY. The premium segment grew 29.0% YoY. New
launches such as Tata Lyfe Alkaline Water and new flavors of Tata Gluco+ further supported
SENSEX 79,213
momentum.
NIFTY 24,039
RESEARCH ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576
Ishank Gupta, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5519 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>
www.krchoksey.com
Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update – Q4 FY25 II 28th April 2025 Page 3
RESEARCH ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576
Ishank Gupta, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5519 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>
www.krchoksey.com
Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update – Q4 FY25 II 28th April 2025 Page 4
RESEARCH ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576
Ishank Gupta, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5519 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>
www.krchoksey.com
Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update – Q4 FY25 II 28th April 2025 Page 5
16.0%
15.3%
10.2% 10.9% 10.0% 10.8% 14.9% 16.0%
11.5% 46,000
13.5%
12.7%
14.0%
12.0%
42,000
10.0%
8.0%
40,000
6.0%
4. 0%
36, 000
2.0%
Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY25 Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY25
India Branded International Branded Non-Branded Revenue (INR Mn) EBITDA Margin (%)
North India Tea prices came down QoQ due Coffee Prices showed increasing trend
to end of the plucking season
374
212
208 207
245 285
217 221
152
229 250 190
214
215 246
133 220
222
146 186
137 149
109 128
117
N. India Tea (INR/kg) S. India Tea (INR/kg) Arabica Coffee ($c/lbs0 Robusta Coffee ($c/lbs)
Kenya Tea (INR/kg)
RESEARCH ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576
Ishank Gupta, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5519 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>
www.krchoksey.com
Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update – Q4 FY25 II 28th April 2025 Page 6
80x 85x
74x
75x
68x
65x
62x
56x 55x
1-year Avg. NTM P/E = 66.6x 3-year Avg. NTM P/E = 62.0x
50x
45x
Apr-24
Apr-25
Feb-25
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Apr-23
Apr-22
Apr-24
Apr-25
Oct-23
Oct-22
Oct-24
1-Year Fwd PE 1-Year Avg. 1-Year Fwd PE 3-Year Avg.
STD +1 STD +2 STD +1 STD +2
STD -1 STD -2 STD -1 STD -2
70x 75x
55x 60x
45x
40x
30x 10- Year Avg. NTM P/E = 42.8x
25x 5-year Avg. NTM P/E = 51.8x
15x
10x
0x
Apr-21
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-22
Apr-24
Apr-23
Apr-25
Apr-23
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-21
Apr-22
Apr-24
Apr-25
Apr-15
Apr-19
Apr-20
RESEARCH ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576
Ishank Gupta, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5519 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>
www.krchoksey.com
Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update – Q4 FY25 II 28th April 2025 Page 7
Adjusted PAT 2,995 2,850 4,324 5.1% (30.7%) 12,836 14,774 (13.1%)
Adj. PAT Margin 6.5% 6.4% 11.0% 9 bps (451 bps) 7.3% 9.7% (243 bps)
Adj. EPS 3.0 2.9 4.6 5.1% (33.5%) 13.0 15.8 (18.0%)
RESEARCH ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576
Ishank Gupta, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5519 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>
www.krchoksey.com
Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update – Q4 FY25 II 28th April 2025 Page 8
COGS 85,639 1,00,693 1,15,590 1,31,751 Equity Capital 953 990 990 990
Gross profit 66,419 75,490 87,961 1,03,366 Other Equity 1,73,409 2,12,914 2,24,792 2,39,981
EBITDA Margin 15.0% 14.1% 15.5% 16.1% Lease Liabiities 4,596 4,736 4,736 4,736
Current Assets
Closing Cash 11,719 13,777 29,416 50,974
Inventories 27,694 35,999 41,325 47,103
Exhibit 4: Key Ratios
Trade
Key Ratios FY24 FY25 FY26E FY27E 8,968 8,698 10,049 11,607
Receivables
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.0% 14.1% 15.5% 16.1%
Investments 2,386 2,922 2,922 2,922
Tax rate (%) 23.3% 22.3% 24.8% 23.2%
Cash and Bank 23,198 27,259 42,898 64,456
Net Profit Margin (%) 7.6% 7.3% 9.2% 9.9%
RoE (%) 6.6% 6.0% 8.2% 9.7% Oher current
12,021 14,818 14,818 14,818
assets
RoCE (%) 9.4% 8.1% 10.9% 12.5%
Total Current
12.1 12.9 18.8 23.6 74,266 89,697 1,12,012 1,40,907
EPS (INR) Assets
PE 74.6x 89.1x 61.4x 48.9x
Total Assets 2,80,209 3,19,777 3,26,846 3,52,666
Source: Company, DevenChoksey Research
RESEARCH ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576
Ishank Gupta, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5519 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>
www.krchoksey.com
Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update – Q4 FY25 II 28th April 2025 Page 9
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RESEARCH ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576
Ishank Gupta, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5519 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>
www.krchoksey.com
Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ