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add an extended discussion of test behavior under the alternative, introduce the
noncentral t-distribution, and illustrate test power. We also include new Monte Carlo
experiments illustrating test properties when the explanatory variable is random.
Chapter 4 discusses in detail nonlinear relationships such as the log-log, log-linear,
linear-log, and polynomial models. We have expanded the discussion of diagnostic
residual plots and added sections on identifying influential observations. The familiar
concepts of compound interest are used to motivate several log-linear models. We add
an appendix on the concept of mean squared error and the minimum mean squared
error predictor.
Chapter 5 introduces multiple regression in the random-x framework. The Frisch–
Waugh–Lovell (FWL) theorem is introduced as a way to help understand interpretation
of the multiple regression model and used throughout the remainder of the book.
Discussions of the properties of the OLS estimator, and interval estimates and t-tests,
are updated. The large sample properties of the OLS estimator, and the delta method,
are now introduced within the chapter rather than an appendix. Appendices provide
further discussion and Monte Carlo properties to illustrate the delta method. We
provide a new appendix on bootstrapping and its uses.
Chapter 6 adds a new section on large sample tests. We explain the use of control
variables and the difference between causal and predictive models. We revise the
discussion of collinearity and include a discussion of influential observations. We
introduce nonlinear regression models and nonlinear least squares algorithms are
discussed. Appendices are added to discuss the statistical power of F-tests and further
uses of the Frisch–Waugh–Lovell theorem.
Chapter 7 now includes an extensive section on treatment effects and causal modeling
in Rubin’s potential outcomes framework. We explain and illustrate the interesting
regression discontinuity design. An appendix includes a discussion of the important
“overlap” assumption.
Chapter 8 has been reorganized so that the heteroskedasticity robust variance of the
OLS estimator appears before testing. We add a section on how model specification
can ameliorate heteroskedasticity in some applications. We add appendices to explain
the properties of the OLS residuals and another to explain alternative robust sandwich
variance estimators. We present Monte Carlo experiments to illustrate the differences.
Chapter 9 has been reorganized and streamlined. The initial section introduces the
different ways that dynamic elements can be added to the regression model. These
include using finite lag models, infinite lag models, and autoregressive errors. We
carefully discuss autocorrelations, including testing for autocorrelation and
representing autocorrelations using a correlogram. After introducing the concepts of
stationarity and weak dependence, we discuss the general notions of forecasting and
forecast intervals in the context of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models.
Following these introductory concepts, there are details of estimating and using
alternative models, covering such topics as choosing lag lengths, testing for Granger
causality, the Lagrange multiplier test for serial correlation, and using models for policy
analysis. We provide very specific sets of assumptions for time-series regression
models and outline how heteroskedastic and autocorrelation consistent, robust,
standard errors are used. We discuss generalized least squares estimation of a time-
series regression model and its relation to nonlinear least squares regression. A
detailed discussion of the infinite lag model and how to use multiplier analysis is
 provided. An appendix contains details of the Durbin–Watson test.
Chapter 10 on endogeneity problems has been streamlined because the concept of
random explanatory variables is now introduced much earlier in the book. We provide
further analysis of weak instruments and how weak instruments adversely affect the
precision of IV estimation. The details of the Hausman test are now included in the
chapter.
Chapter 11 now adds Klein’s Model I as an example.
Chapter 12 includes more details of deterministic trends and unit roots. The section on
unit root testing has been restructured so that each Dickey–Fuller test is more fully
explained and illustrated with an example. Numerical examples of ARDL models with
nonstationary variables that are, and are not, cointegrated have been added.
The data in Chapter 13 have been updated and new exercises added.
Chapter 14 mentions further extensions of ARCH volatility models.
Chapter 15 has been restructured to give priority to how panel data can be used to
cope with the endogeneity caused by unobserved heterogeneity. We introduce the
advantages of having panel data using the first difference estimator, and then discuss
the within/fixed effects estimator. We provide an extended discussion of cluster robust
standard errors in both the OLS and fixed effects model. We discuss the Mundlak
version of the Hausman test for endogeneity. We give brief mention to how to extend
the use of panel data in several ways.
The Chapter 16 discussion of binary choice models is reorganized and expanded. It
now includes brief discussions of advanced topics such as binary choice models with
endogenous explanatory variables and binary choice models with panel data. We add
new appendices on random utility models and latent variable models.
Appendix A includes new sections on second derivatives and finding maxima and
minima of univariate and bivariate functions.
Appendix B includes new material on conditional expectations and conditional
variances, including several useful decompositions. We include new sections on
truncated random variables, including the truncated normal and Poisson distributions.
To facilitate discussions of test power, we have new sections on the noncentral t-
distribution, the noncentral Chi-square distribution, and the noncentral F-distribution.
We have included an expanded new section on the log-normal distribution.
Appendix C content does not change a great deal, but 20 new exercises are included.
Statistical Tables for the Standard Normal cumulative distribution function, the
t-distribution and Chi-square distribution critical values for selected percentiles, the
F-distribution critical values for the 95th and 99th percentiles, and the Standard Normal
density function values appear in Appendix D.
A useful “cheat sheet” of essential formulas is provided at the authors’ website,
www.principlesofeconometrics.com, rather than inside the covers as in the previous
edition.

For Instructors: Suggested Course Plans

Principles of Econometrics, Fifth Edition is suitable for one or two semester courses at the
undergraduate or first year graduate level. Some suitable plans for alternative courses are
as follows:
One-semester survey course: Sections P.1–P.6.2 and P.7; Sections 2.1–2.9;
Chapters 3 and 4; Sections 5.1–5.6; Sections 6.1–6.5; Sections 7.1–7.3; Sections
8.1–8.4 and 8.6; Sections 9.1–9.4.2 and 9.5–9.5.1.
One-semester survey course enhancements for Master’s or Ph.D.: Include Appendices
for Chapters 2–9.
Two-semester survey second course, cross-section emphasis: Section P.6; Section
2.10; Section 5.7; Section 6.6; Sections 7.4–7.6; Sections 8.5 and 8.6.3–8.6.5;
Sections 10.1–10.4; Sections 15.1–15.4; Sections 16.1–16.2 and 16.6;
Two-semester survey second course, time series emphasis: Section P.6; Section
2.10; Section 5.7; Section 6.6; Sections 7.4–7.6; Sections 8.5 and 8.6.3–8.6.5;
Section 9.5; Sections 10.1–10.4; Sections 12.1–12.5; Sections 13.1–13.5; Sections
14.1–14.4;
Two-semester survey course enhancements for Master’s or Ph.D.: Include Appendices
from Chapters 10, Chapter 11, Appendices 15A–15B, Sections 16.3–16.5 and 16.7,
Appendices 16A–16D, Book Appendices B and C.

Computer Supplement Books

There are several computer supplements to Principles of Econometrics, Fifth Edition. The
supplements are not versions of the text and cannot substitute for the text. They use the
examples in the text as a vehicle for learning the software. We show how to use the
software to get the answers for each example in the text.
Using EViews for the Principles of Econometrics, Fifth Edition, by William E. Griffiths,
R. Carter Hill, and Guay C. Lim [ISBN 9781119463399]. This supplementary book
presents the EViews 10 [www.eviews.com] software commands required for the
examples in Principles of Econometrics in a clear and concise way. It includes many
illustrations that are student friendly. It is useful not only for students and instructors
who will be using this software as part of their econometrics course but also for those
who wish to learn how to use EViews.
Using Stata for the Principles of Econometrics, Fifth Edition, by Lee C. Adkins and R.
Carter Hill [ISBN 9781119463245]. This supplementary book presents the Stata 15.0
[www.stata.com] software commands required for the examples in Principles of
Econometrics. It is useful not only for students and instructors who will be using this
software as part of their econometrics course but also for those who wish to learn how
to use Stata. Screen shots illustrate the use of Stata’s drop-down menus. Stata
commands are explained and the use of “do-files” illustrated.
Using SAS for the Principles of Econometrics, Fifth Edition, by Randall C. Campbell
and R. Carter Hill [ISBN 9781119463481]. This supplementary book gives SAS 9.4
[www.sas.com] software commands for econometric tasks, following the general
outline of Principles of Econometrics, Fifth Edition. It includes enough background
material on econometrics so that instructors using any textbook can easily use this
 book as a supplement. The volume spans several levels of econometrics. It is suitable
for undergraduate students who will use “canned” SAS statistical procedures, and for
graduate students who will use advanced procedures as well as direct programming in
SAS’s matrix language; the latter is discussed in chapter appendices.
Using Excel for Principles of Econometrics, Fifth Edition, by Genevieve Briand and R.
Carter Hill [ISBN 9781119463412]. This supplement explains how to use Excel to
reproduce most of the examples in Principles of Econometrics. Detailed instructions
and screen shots are provided explaining both the computations and clarifying the
operations of Excel. Templates are developed for common tasks.
Using GRETL for Principles of Econometrics, Fifth Edition, by Lee C. Adkins. This free
supplement, readable using Adobe Acrobat, explains how to use the freely available
statistical software GRETL (download from http://gretl.sourceforge.net). Professor
Adkins explains in detail, and using screen shots, how to use GRETL to replicate the
examples in Principles of Econometrics. The manual is freely available at
www.learneconometrics.com/gretl.html.
Using R for Principles of Econometrics, Fifth Edition, by Constantin Colonescu and R.
Carter Hill. This free supplement, readable using Adobe Acrobat, explains how to use
the freely available statistical software R (download from https://www.r-project.org/).
The supplement explains in detail, and using screen shots, how to use R to replicate
the examples in Principles of Econometrics, Fifth Edition. The manual is freely
available at https://bookdown.org/ccolonescu/RPOE5/.

Data Files
Data files for the book are provided in a variety of formats at the book website
www.wiley.com/college/hill. These include
ASCII format (*.dat). These are text files containing only data.
Definition files (*.def). These are text files describing the data file contents, with a
listing of variable names, variable definitions, and summary statistics.
EViews (*.wf1) workfiles for each data file.
Excel (*.xls) workbooks for each data file, including variable names in the first row.
Comma separated values (*.csv) files that can be read into almost all software.
Stata (*.dta) data files.
SAS (*.sas7bdat) data files.
GRETL (*.gdt) data files.
R (*.rdata) data files.
The author website www.principlesofeconometrics.com includes a complete list of the data
files and where they are used in the book.

Additional Resources
The book website www.principlesofeconometrics.com includes
Individual data files in each format as well as ZIP files containing data in compressed
format.
Book errata.
Brief answers to odd number problems. These answers are also provided on the book
website at www.wiley.com/college/hill.
Additional examples with solutions. Some extra examples come with complete
solutions so that students will know what a good answer looks like.
Tips on writing research papers.

Resources for Instructors

For instructors, also available at the website www.wiley.com/college/hill are
Complete solutions, in both Microsoft Word and *.pdf formats, to all exercises in the
text.
PowerPoint slides and PowerPoint Viewer.

Acknowledgments
Authors Hill and Griffiths want to acknowledge the gifts given to them over the past 40
years by mentor, friend, and colleague George Judge. Neither this book nor any of the
other books we have shared in the writing of would have ever seen the light of day without
his vision and inspiration.
We also wish to give thanks to the many students and faculty who have commented on
the fourth edition of the text and contributed to the fifth edition. This list includes Alejandra
Breve Ferrari, Alex James, Alyssa Wans, August Saibeni, Barry Rafferty, Bill Rising, Bob
Martin, Brad Lewis, Bronson Fong, David Harris, David Iseral, Deborah Williams, Deokrye
Baek, Diana Whistler, Emma Powers, Ercan Saridogan, Erdogan Cevher, Erika Haguette,
Ethan Luedecke, Gareth Thomas, Gawon Yoon, Genevieve Briand, German Altgelt, Glenn
Sueyoshi, Henry McCool, James Railton, Jana Ruimerman, Jeffery Parker, Joe Goss,
John Jackson, Julie Leiby, Katharina Hauck, Katherine Ramirez, Kelley Pace, Lee Adkins,
Matias Cattaneo, Max O’Krepki, Meagan McCollum, Micah West, Michelle Savolainen,
Oystein Myrland, Patrick Scholten, Randy Campbell, Regina Riphahn, Sandamali
Kankanamge, Sergio Pastorello, Shahrokh Towfighi, Tom Fomby, Tong Zeng, Victoria
Pryor, Yann Nicolas, and Yuanbo Zhang. In the book errata we acknowledge those who
have pointed out our errors.

R. Carter Hill
William E. Griffiths
Guay C. Lim
Table of Contents
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
Preface
List of Examples
CHAPTER 1: An Introduction to Econometrics
1.1 Why Study Econometrics?
1.2 What Is Econometrics About?
1.3 The Econometric Model
1.4 How Are Data Generated?
1.5 Economic Data Types
1.6 The Research Process
1.7 Writing an Empirical Research Paper
1.8 Sources of Economic Data
Probability Primer
KEYWORDS
P.1 Random Variables
P.2 Probability Distributions
P.3 Joint, Marginal, and Conditional Probabilities
P.4 A Digression: Summation Notation
P.5 Properties of Probability Distributions
P.6 Conditioning
P.7 The Normal Distribution
P.8 Exercises
CHAPTER 2: The Simple Linear Regression Model
KEYWORDS
2.1 An Economic Model
2.2 An Econometric Model
2.3 Estimating the Regression Parameters
2.4 Assessing the Least Squares Estimators
2.5 The Gauss–Markov Theorem
2.6 The Probability Distributions of the Least Squares Estimators
2.7 Estimating the Variance of the Error Term
2.8 Estimating Nonlinear Relationships
2.9 Regression with Indicator Variables
 2.10 The Independent Variable 10
2.11 Exercises
Appendix 2A Derivation of the Least Squares Estimates
Appendix 2B Deviation from the Mean Form of b2
Appendix 2C b2 Is a Linear Estimator
Appendix 2D Derivation of Theoretical Expression for b2
Appendix 2E Deriving the Conditional Variance of b2
Appendix 2F Proof of the Gauss–Markov Theorem
Appendix 2G Proofs of Results Introduced in Section 2.10
Appendix 2H Monte Carlo Simulation
CHAPTER 3: Interval Estimation and Hypothesis Testing
KEYWORDS
3.1 Interval Estimation
3.2 Hypothesis Tests
3.3 Rejection Regions for Specific Alternatives
3.4 Examples of Hypothesis Tests
3.5 The p-Value
3.6 Linear Combinations of Parameters
3.7 Exercises
Appendix 3A Derivation of the t-Distribution
Appendix 3B Distribution of the t-Statistic under H 1
Appendix 3C Monte Carlo Simulation
CHAPTER 4: Prediction, Goodness-of-Fit, and Modeling Issues
KEYWORDS
4.1 Least Squares Prediction
4.2 Measuring Goodness-of-Fit
4.3 Modeling Issues
4.4 Polynomial Models
4.5 Log-Linear Models
4.6 Log-Log Models
4.7 Exercises
Appendix 4A Development of a Prediction Interval
Appendix 4B The Sum of Squares Decomposition
Appendix 4C Mean Squared Error: Estimation and Prediction
CHAPTER 5: The Multiple Regression Model
KEY WORDS
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Estimating the Parameters of the Multiple Regression Model
 5.3 Finite Sample Properties of the Least Squares Estimator
5.4 Interval Estimation
5.5 Hypothesis Testing
5.6 Nonlinear Relationships
5.7 Large Sample Properties of the Least Squares Estimator
5.8 Exercises
Appendix 5A Derivation of Least Squares Estimators
Appendix 5B The Delta Method
Appendix 5C Monte Carlo Simulation
Appendix 5D Bootstrapping
CHAPTER 6: Further Inference in the Multiple Regression Model
KEYWORDS
6.1 Testing Joint Hypotheses: The F-test
6.2 The Use of Nonsample Information
6.3 Model Specification
6.4 Prediction
6.5 Poor Data, Collinearity, and Insignificance
6.6 Nonlinear Least Squares
6.7 Exercises
Appendix 6A The Statistical Power of F-Tests
Appendix 6B Further Results from the FWL Theorem
CHAPTER 7: Using Indicator Variables
KEYWORDS
7.1 Indicator Variables
7.2 Applying Indicator Variables
7.3 Log-Linear Models
7.4 The Linear Probability Model
7.5 Treatment Effects
7.6 Treatment Effects and Causal Modeling
7.7 Exercises
Appendix 7A Details of Log-Linear Model Interpretation
Appendix 7B Derivation of the Differences-in-Differences Estimator
Appendix 7C The Overlap Assumption: Details
CHAPTER 8: Heteroskedasticity
KEYWORDS
8.1 The Nature of Heteroskedasticity
8.2 Heteroskedasticity in the Multiple Regression Model
8.3 Heteroskedasticity Robust Variance Estimator
8.4 Generalized Least Squares: Known Form of Variance
 8.5 Generalized Least Squares: Unknown Form of Variance
8.6 Detecting Heteroskedasticity
8.7 Heteroskedasticity in the Linear Probability Model
8.8 Exercises
Appendix 8A Properties of the Least Squares Estimator
Appendix 8B Lagrange Multiplier Tests for Heteroskedasticity
Appendix 8C Properties of the Least Squares Residuals
Appendix 8D Alternative Robust Sandwich Estimators
Appendix 8E Monte Carlo Evidence: OLS, GLS, and FGLS
CHAPTER 9: Regression with Time-Series Data: Stationary Variables
KEYWORDS
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Stationarity and Weak Dependence
9.3 Forecasting
9.4 Testing for Serially Correlated Errors
9.5 Time-Series Regressions for Policy Analysis
9.6 Exercises
Appendix 9A The Durbin–Watson Test
Appendix 9B Properties of an AR(1) Error
CHAPTER 10: Endogenous Regressors and Moment-Based Estimation
KEYWORDS
10.1 Least Squares Estimation with Endogenous Regressors
10.2 Cases in Which x and e are Contemporaneously Correlated
10.3 Estimators Based on the Method of Moments
10.4 Specification Tests
10.5 Exercises
Appendix 10A Testing for Weak Instruments
Appendix 10B Monte Carlo Simulation
CHAPTER 11: Simultaneous Equations Models
KEYWORDS
11.1 A Supply and Demand Model
11.2 The Reduced-Form Equations
11.3 The Failure of Least Squares Estimation
11.4 The Identification Problem
11.5 Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
11.6 Exercises
Appendix 11A 2SLS Alternatives
CHAPTER 12: Regression with Time-Series Data: Nonstationary Variables
KEYWORDS
 12.1 Stationary and Nonstationary Variables
12.2 Consequences of Stochastic Trends
12.3 Unit Root Tests for Stationarity
12.4 Cointegration
12.5 Regression When There Is No Cointegration
12.6 Summary
12.7 Exercises
CHAPTER 13: Vector Error Correction and Vector Autoregressive Models
KEYWORDS
13.1 VEC and VAR Models
13.2 Estimating a Vector Error Correction Model
13.3 Estimating a VAR Model
13.4 Impulse Responses and Variance Decompositions
13.5 Exercises
Appendix 13A The Identification Problem
CHAPTER 14: Time-Varying Volatility and ARCH Models
KEYWORDS
14.1 The ARCH Model
14.2 Time-Varying Volatility
14.3 Testing, Estimating, and Forecasting
14.4 Extensions
14.5 Exercises
CHAPTER 15: Panel Data Models
KEYWORDS
15.1 The Panel Data Regression Function
15.2 The Fixed Effects Estimator
15.3 Panel Data Regression Error Assumptions
15.4 The Random Effects Estimator
15.5 Exercises
Appendix 15A Cluster-Robust Standard Errors: Some Details
Appendix 15B Estimation of Error Components
CHAPTER 16: Qualitative and Limited Dependent Variable Models
KEYWORDS
16.1 Introducing Models with Binary Dependent Variables
16.2 Modeling Binary Choices
16.3 Multinomial Logit
16.4 Conditional Logit
16.5 Ordered Choice Models
16.6 Models for Count Data
 16.7 Limited Dependent Variables
16.8 Exercises
Appendix 16A Probit Marginal Effects: Details
Appendix 16B Random Utility Models
Appendix 16C Using Latent Variables
Appendix 16D A Tobit Monte Carlo Experiment
Appendix A: Mathematical Tools
Appendix B: Probability Concepts
Appendix C: Review of Statistical Inference
Appendix D: Statistical Tables
Index
End User License Agreement
List of Examples
Example P.1 Using a cdf
Example P.2 Calculating a Conditional Probability
Example P.3 Calculating an Expected Value
Example P.4 Calculating a Conditional Expectation
Example P.5 Calculating a Variance
Example P.6 Calculating a Correlation
Example P.7 Conditional Expectation
Example P.8 Conditional Variance
Example P.9 Iterated Expectation
Example P.10 Covariance Decomposition
Example P.11 Normal Distribution Probability Calculation
Example 2.1 A Failure of the Exogeneity Assumption
Example 2.2 Strict Exogeneity in the Household Food Expenditure Model
Example 2.3 Food Expenditure Model Data
Example 2.4a Estimates for the Food Expenditure Function
Example 2.4b Using the Estimates
Example 2.5 Calculations for the Food Expenditure Data
Example 2.6 Baton Rouge House Data
Example 2.7 Baton Rouge House Data, Log-Linear Model
Example 3.1 Interval Estimate for Food Expenditure Data
Example 3.2 Right-Tail Test of Significance
Example 3.3 Right-Tail Test of an Economic Hypothesis
Example 3.4 Left-Tail Test of an Economic Hypothesis
Example 3.5 Two-Tail Test of an Economic Hypothesis
Example 3.6 Two-Tail Test of Significance
Example 3.3 (continued) p-Value for a Right-Tail Test
Example 3.4 (continued) p-Value for a Left-Tail Test
Example 3.5 (continued) p-Value for a Two-Tail Test
Example 3.6 (continued) p-Value for a Two-Tail Test of Significance
Example 3.7 Estimating Expected Food Expenditure
Example 3.8 An Interval Estimate of Expected Food Expenditure
Example 3.9 Testing Expected Food Expenditure
Example 4.1 Prediction in the Food Expenditure Model
Example 4.2 Goodness-of-Fit in the Food Expenditure Model
Example 4.3 Reporting Regression Results
Example 4.4 Using the Linear-Log Model for Food Expenditure
Example 4.5 Heteroskedasticity in the Food Expenditure Model
Example 4.6 Testing Normality in the Food Expenditure Model
Example 4.7 Influential Observations in the Food Expenditure Data
Example 4.8 An Empirical Example of a Cubic Equation
Example 4.9 A Growth Model
Example 4.10 A Wage Equation
Example 4.11 Prediction in a Log-Linear Model
Example 4.12 Prediction Intervals for a Log-Linear Model
Example 4.13 A Log-Log Poultry Demand Equation
Example 5.1 Data for Hamburger Chain
Example 5.2 OLS Estimates for Hamburger Chain Data
Example 5.3 Error Variance Estimate for Hamburger Chain Data
Example 5.4 R 2for Hamburger Chain Data
Example 5.5 Variances, Covariances, and Standard Errors for Hamburger Chain
Data
Example 5.6 Interval Estimates for Coefficients in Hamburger Sales Equation
Example 5.7 Interval Estimate for a Change in Sales
Example 5.8 Testing the Significance of Price
Example 5.9 Testing the Significance of Advertising Expenditure
Example 5.10 Testing for Elastic Demand
Example 5.11 Testing Advertising Effectiveness
Example 5.12 Testing the Effect of Changes in Price and Advertising
Example 5.13 Cost and Product Curves
Example 5.14 Extending the Model for Burger Barn Sales
Example 5.15 An Interaction Variable in a Wage Equation
Example 5.16 A Log-Quadratic Wage Equation
Example 5.17 The Optimal Level of Advertising
Example 5.18 How Much Experience Maximizes Wages?
Example 5.19 An Interval Estimate for exp(2/10)
Example 5.20 An Interval Estimate for 1 / 2
Example 5.21 Bootstrapping for Nonlinear Functions g ( ) = exp( /10) and g ( , )
 1 2 2 2 1 2
= 1 /2
Example 6.1 Testing the Effect of Advertising
Example 6.2 The F-Test Procedure
Example 6.3 Overall Significance of Burger Barns Equation
Example 6.4 When are t-and F-tests equivalent?
Example 6.5 Testing Optimal Advertising
Example 6.6 A One-Tail Test
Example 6.7 Two (J = 2) Complex Hypotheses
Examples 6.2 and 6.5 Revisited
Example 6.8 A Nonlinear Hypothesis
Example 6.9 Restricted Least Squares
Example 6.10 Family Income Equation
Example 6.11 Adding Children Aged Less Than 6 Years
Example 6.12 Adding Irrelevant Variables
Example 6.13 A Control Variable for Ability
Example 6.14 Applying RESET to Family Income Equation
Example 6.15 Forecasting SALES for the Burger Barn
Example 6.16 Predicting House Prices
Example 6.17 Collinearity in a Rice Production Function
Example 6.18 Influential Observations in the House Price Equation
Example 6.19 Nonlinear Least Squares Estimates for Simple Model
Example 6.20 A Logistic Growth Curve
Example 7.1 The University Effect on House Prices
Example 7.2 The Effects of Race and Sex on Wage
Example 7.3 A Wage Equation with Regional Indicators
Example 7.4 Testing the Equivalence of Two Regressions: The Chow Test
Example 7.5 Indicator Variables in a Log-Linear Model: The Rough Approximation
Example 7.6 Indicator Variables in a Log-Linear Model: An Exact Calculation
Example 7.7 The Linear Probability Model: An Example from Marketing
Example 7.8 An Application of Difference Estimation: Project STAR
Example 7.9 The Difference Estimator with Additional Controls
Example 7.10 The Difference Estimator with Fixed Effects
Example 7.11 Linear Probability Model Check of Random Assignment 338
Example 7.12 Estimating the Effect of a Minimum Wage Change: The DID Estimator
Example 7.13 Estimating the Effect of a Minimum Wage Change: Using Panel Data
Example 8.1 Heteroskedasticity in the Food Expenditure Model
Example 8.2 Robust Standard Errors in the Food Expenditure Model
Example 8.3 Applying GLS/WLS to the Food Expenditure Data
Example 8.4 Multiplicative Heteroskedasticity in the Food Expenditure Model
Example 8.5 A Heteroskedastic Partition
Example 8.6 The Goldfeld-Quandt Test with Partitioned Data
Example 8.7 The Goldfeld-Quandt Test in the Food Expenditure Model
Example 8.8 Variance Stabilizing Log-transformation
Example 8.9 The Marketing Example Revisited
Example 8.10 Alternative Robust Standard Errors in the Food Expenditure Model
Example 9.1 Plotting the Unemployment Rate and the GDP Growth Rate for the
United States
Example 9.2 Sample Autocorrelations for Unemployment
Example 9.3 Sample Autocorrelations for GDP Growth Rate
Example 9.4 Are the Unemployment and Growth Rate Series Stationary and Weakly
Dependent?
Example 9.5 Forecasting Unemployment with an AR(2) Model
Example 9.6 Forecast Intervals for Unemployment from the AR(2) Model
Example 9.7 Forecasting Unemployment with an ARDL(2, 1) Model
Example 9.8 Choosing Lag Lengths in an ARDL(p, q) Unemployment Equation
Example 9.9 Does the Growth Rate Granger Cause Unemployment?
Example 9.10 Checking the Residual Correlogram for the ARDL(2, 1)
Unemployment Equation
Example 9.11 Checking the Residual Correlogram for an ARDL(1, 1) Unemployment
Equation
Example 9.12 LM Test for Serial Correlation in the ARDL Unemployment Equation
Example 9.13 Okun’s Law
Example 9.14 A Phillips Curve
Example 9.15 The Phillips Curve with AR(1) Errors
Example 9.16 A Consumption Function
Example 9.17 Deriving Multipliers for an Infinite Lag Okun’s Law Model
Example 9.18 Computing the Multiplier Estimates for the Infinite Lag Okun’s Law
Model
Example 9.19 Testing for Consistency of Least Squares Estimation of Okun’s Law
Example 9.20 Durbin-Watson Bounds Test for Phillips Curve
Example 10.1 Least Squares Estimation of a Wage Equation
Example 10.2 IV Estimation of a Simple Wage Equation
Example 10.3 2SLS Estimation of a Simple Wage Equation
Example 10.4 Using Surplus Instruments in the Simple Wage Equation
Example 10.5 IV/2SLS Estimation in the Wage Equation
Example 10.6 Checking Instrument Strength in the Wage Equation
Example 10.7 Specification Tests for the Wage Equation
Example 10.8 Testing for Weak Instruments
Example 11.1 Supply and Demand for Truffles
Example 11.2 Supply and Demand at the Fulton Fish Market
Example 11.3 Klein’s Model I
Example 11.4 Testing for Weak Instruments Using LIML
Example 11.5 Testing for Weak Instruments with Fuller-Modified LIML
Example 12.1 Plots of Some U.S. Economic Time Series
Example 12.2 A Deterministic Trend for Wheat Yield
Example 12.3 A Regression with Two Random Walks
Example 12.4 Checking the Two Interest Rate Series for Stationarity
Example 12.5 Is GDP Trend Stationary?
Example 12.6 Is Wheat Yield Trend Stationary?
Example 12.7 The Order of Integration of the Two Interest Rate Series
Example 12.8 Are the Federal Funds Rate and Bond Rate Cointegrated?
Example 12.9 An Error Correction Model for the Bond and Federal Funds Rates
Example 12.10 A Consumption Function in First Differences
Example 13.1 VEC Model for GDP
Example 13.2 VAR Model for Consumption and Income
Example 14.1 Characteristics of Financial Variables
Example 14.2 Simulating Time-Varying Volatility
Example 14.3 Testing for ARCH in BrightenYourDay (BYD) Lighting
Example 14.4 ARCH Model Estimates for BrightenYourDay (BYD) Lighting
Example 14.5 Forecasting BrightenYourDay (BYD) Volatility
Example 14.6 A GARCH Model for BrightenYourDay
Example 14.7 A T-GARCH Model for BYD
Example 14.8 A GARCH-in-Mean Model for BYD
Example 15.1 A Microeconometric Panel
Example 15.1 Revisited
Example 15.2 Using T = 2 Differenced Observations for a Production Function
Example 15.3 Using T = 2 Differenced Observations for a Wage Equation
Example 15.4 Using the Within Transformation with T = 2 Observations for a
Production Function
Example 15.5 Using the Within Transformation with T = 3 Observations for a
Production Function
Example 15.6 Using the Fixed Effects Estimator with T = 3 Observations for a
Production Function
Example 15.7 Using Pooled OLS with Cluster-Robust Standard Errors for a
Production Function
Example 15.8 Using Fixed Effects and Cluster-Robust Standard Errors for a
Production Function
Example 15.9 Random Effects Estimation of a Production Function
Example 15.10 Random Effects Estimation of a Wage Equation
Example 15.11 Testing for Random Effects in a Production Function
Example 15.12 Testing for Endogenous Random Effects in a Production Function
Example 15.13 Testing for Endogenous Random Effects in a Wage Equation
Example 15.14 The Mundlak Approach for a Production Function
Example 15.15 The Mundlak Approach for a Wage Equation
Example 15.16 The Hausman-Taylor Estimator for a Wage Equation
Example 16.1 A Transportation Problem
Example 16.2 A Transportation Problem: The Linear Probability Model
Example 16.3 Probit Maximum Likelihood: A Small Example
Example 16.4 The Transportation Data: Probit
Example 16.5 The Transportation Data: More Postestimation Analysis
Example 16.6 An Empirical Example from Marketing 694
Example 16.7 Coke Choice Model: Wald Hypothesis Tests
Example 16.8 Coke Choice Model: Likelihood Ratio Hypothesis Tests
Example 16.9 Estimating the Effect of Education on Labor Force Participation
Example 16.10 Women’s Labor Force Participation and Having More Than Two
Children
Example 16.11 Effect of War Veteran Status on Wages
Example 16.12 Postsecondary Education Multinomial Choice
Example 16.13 Conditional Logit Soft Drink Choice
Example 16.14 Postsecondary Education Ordered Choice Model
Example 16.15 A Count Model for the Number of Doctor Visits
Example 16.16 Tobit Model of Hours Worked
Example 16.17 Heckit Model of Wages
Example A.1 Slope of a Linear Function
Example A.2 Slope of a Quadratic Function
Example A.3 Taylor Series Approximation
Example A.4 Second Derivative of a Linear Function
Example A.5 Second Derivative of a Quadratic Function
Example A.6 Finding the Minimum of a Quadratic Function
Example A.7 Maximizing a Profit Function
Example A.8 Minimizing a Sum of Squared Differences
Example A.9 Area Under a Curve
Example B.1 Variance Decomposition: Numerical Example
Example B.2 Probability Calculation Using Geometry
Example B.3 Probability Calculation Using Integration
Example B.4 Expected Value of a Continuous Random Variable
Example B.5 Variance of a Continuous Random Variable
Example B.6 Computing a Joint Probability
Example B.7 Another Joint Probability Calculation
Example B.8 Finding and Using a Marginal pdf
Example B.9 Finding and Using a Conditional pdf
Example B.10 Computing a Correlation
Example B.11 Using Iterated Expectation
Example B.12 Change of Variable: Continuous Case
Example B.13 Change of Variable: Continuous Case
Example B.14 An Inverse Transformation
Example B.15 The Inversion Method: An Example
Example B.16 Linear Congruential Generator Example
Example C.1 Histogram of Hip Width Data
Example C.2 Sample Mean of Hip Width Data
Example C.3 Sampling Variation of Sample Means of Hip Width Data
Example C.4 The Effect of Sample Size on Sample Mean Precision
Example C.5 Illustrating the Central Limit Theorem
Example C.6 Sample Moments of the Hip Data
Example C.7 Using the Hip Data Estimates
Example C.8 Simulating the Hip Data: Interval Estimates
Discovering Diverse Content Through
Random Scribd Documents
 Fur by Romana Kendelic O1 Types of fur There are many
different types of fur, not just in color or length but the texture, too
There is bristly, woolly, soft and plushy silky, tangled, and so on. Also
lots of animals have layered fur: a softer undercoat (downy hair) and
a coarser top layer (quard hair). This top layer is usually strongly
pigmented including a whole range of patterns (for example as seen
on big cats) O02 Basic shapes | block out shapes with a soft brush.
Start with the placement of light and shadow. Paint in the basic color
and tone, and pattern if any, Fur of some lengths naturally clumps
together and this is what you should paint thick sections that overlap
and separate. Use loose brushstrokes and leave all detailing for later.
Keep in mind that fur has depth and weight. Paint in the direction of
the growth 03 Clumps of fur Define the edges of the clumps of fur.
Check a reference to see how they move — is it soft fur with gentle
curves, or coarse and bristly which would benefit from sharper,
straighter lines? Instead of rendering every individual hair you are
trying to give an illusion of detail 04 Details Refine the fur. Start by
adding more defined highlights and shadows. Do not lose the
clumps; just add more definition to them. There may be cast
shadows to darken, or overlaps to highlight. If the fur is not the
focal point of your painting you can safely stop here 05 Guard hair
Finally add the quard hairs. Usually they are coarser single hairs
protruding through the coat, Use a hard-edged brush on a separate
layer. Sharpen filters may help separate the soft undercoat from the
firmer top layer (Filter > Sharpen). If the fur is glossy, now would be
the right time to add highlights To see dalemelen ia tip usedina final
concept, go to page pay 181
 Lace by Bram "Boco" Sels 01 Dressing up When painting
translucent materials such as lace, the background they're draped
over is what makes them convincing, as it shows Off the transparent
parts. In this quick tip we start with a pair of legs which we'll soon
dress up with a fantastictooking lace skirt. O2 The base of the skirt
Start out by painting a convincing base without worrying about the
details. In this case | went for an opaque white skirt; you can
change the base color to whatever color you want. Keep in mind
that the shape of the skirt should wrap around the legs as
convincingly as possible. 03 Opacity Next, duplicate the layer then
hide the back layer and select the top layer. At the bottom of the
Layers palette click Add Layer Mask and press Ctri+! to invert the
layer mask. Notice the skirt disappears — this is because your layer
mask is now empty (black). If you now select the layer mask (click
the black rectangle next to the layer's thumbnail) and paint in that
mask with a white brush, your layer will show through wherever you
paint. Finally, unhide the second skirt layer and set its opacity to
50% to get a see-through skirt. 04 Painting in the lace pattern Select
the upper skirt layer (which is still invisible due to the black mask),
click on the layer mask (the black rectangle), change your
foreground color to white and you can now use a regular brush to
paint in the lace pattern. Everywhere you paint in the layer mask,
the opaque top skirt will appear in your canvas 05 An extra detail
layer Finally, create an extra layer on top of the others and paint in
the rest of the details Don't do this in the masked layer, as lace
patterns tend to be bumpy and uneven, while the masked layer is
clean and straight. 182
 Leather by Bram "Boco’ Sels O1 Backg) Fill your
background layer with your chosen local color and use a big brush to
create a general direction for the light. | used brown with a top light.
so lighter browns will be in the middie, while the outside is dark 02
Add a new layer, fill it with white and, with eatn té a dark brown
foreground color, go to Filter > Filter Gallery > Texture > Stained
Glass By changing the Cell Size you'll get a larger or smaller texture.
Now use Filter > Filter Gallery > Brush Strokes > Spatter. Select
Accented Edges to get rid of the stiff edges 03 Bevel & Emb« With
the white texture layer still showing click on Channels in the Layers
palette Ctri+click on the blue channel. This selects everything white
(the leather cells), so go back to the Layers tab, click on the brown
background layer and do Ctri+C and Ctrl+V to copy/paste the cells
from the background Hide the top white layer and double-click on
the new layer. You'll see the Layer Style window — click on Bevel &
Emboss This will make all the leather cells pop up with a nice
highlight and shadow color O04 Multipl Unhide the white leather
pattern and set its blending mode to Multiply to accent the crevices
of the leather. The pattern is rather horizontal, so select both your
Multiply layer and the Bevel & Emboss layer and rotate them a bit.
You may have to resize them to fill the empty space from the
rotation '@) 5 Nirtity To make your texture more convincing add
some scratches and dirt. Create a new layer on top and use some
rugged brushes to paint over the layers below. Add some broad
strokes of dirt with bia soft brushes, and some rougher scratches
with smaller, sharper brushes, to achieve a less digital look o 02 walk
183
 by Bram "Boco" Sels 01 Local color, light color Silk is fairly
reflective, so lighting conditions are important. Choose the color of
the silk (local color), and the color of the light in the environment
(light color). In this case the silk is red and the light is bluish, so the
highlights of the silk will be purplish/ pink (red mixed with blue). The
shadows will turn out to be a warm kind of brown 02 Shadows and
folds To make your silk shine it has to feel organic and folded. Start
with the shadows, and use just one color to paint the shapes Every
shadow you paint will be lower than the rest, so try to create a
logical transition between the red shapes 03 Highlights Once you've
painted the shadows, do the same for the highlights. Think about
how folds intersect with one another; your highlights will form lines
that flow over into each other. For each shadow painted in the
previous step, paint a highlight near it 04 Blending and smoothing
Once your basic colors are laid down, it's time to start blending
them. Shadows will be darkest where they are furthest away from
the camera and will gradually flow over into the midtones; the same
goes for the highlights. The sharper a fold, the sharper the highlight
on it, so in places where the silk takes sharp turns you can use the
Lasso Tool to get some tight edges O5 Texture Although silk feels
smooth, it still has a little texture and noise in it. A quick way to get
this texture is to press Ctri+A to select all, and Ctri+Shift+C to copy,
then Ctrl+V to paste a merged version of your painting. Now go to
Filter > Filter Gallery > Chalk & Charcoal and press OK. Finaily hit
Ctrl+Shift+U to desaturate the layer and set its blending mode to
Soft Light 184
 Jewelry by Romana Kendelic O1 Sketch Start with the
sketch. It does not have to De irticularly detailed: an accurate
outline with basic ¢ Ce rent! of yc? c) iows wi be fine. Try to finda
pleasing composition >et your sketch layer to Multiply. Create
another layer below and start blockir in the Dasic colors in a midtone
ranas Note the light source and how the hanaes a the for There ret
ignt Sources, one on ¢ I if t ne and one further away. Establish the y
midtones, core shadows, and light on the spherical gems. On the
cubes find tne sides that are light and ones thal are lusion of 3D
hiects on a 2L 03 Developing the forms Lower the opacity on the
sketch layer and start developing the forms: pay attent how different
materials act. The elliptical gem yn the ring ts semitransparent ee
Now itv ght enters the gem from the right and above inen poois nthe
opposite end The } that shines through takes the trv yem. The
spherical gems are opaque; they JO not transmit the light The core
shadow S lored due to the reddish surfaces 04 Metal Turr { ff the ine
layer (chick on the ey symbol next to it) and concentrate on the
metallic parts (ring and wires in the earrings) See how hues shift
from slightly greenish to a range f ochers to yellow h ghiights.
Darken To see idows: contrast is the key here dalemeltira.: 05
Highlights tip usedina t's all about well-placed reflections and final
concept, highlights. The harder and smoother the go to page
surface, the more reflective it is. Pick the 2 185
 Weapons by Carlos Cabrera 01 Don’t lose the shape and
line Draw everything in one layer (line art layer) Create another layer
below this. Make a quick selection with the Lasso tool, fill with the
Paint Bucket tool, and using the same selection apply a gradient to
create light and shadow. Change the layer mode to Multiply to see
the line over our base layer 02 Simplify with boxes When painting
the light and dark areas simplify the shape. You can do this in
another layer, The strongest lights are followed by a darker shade to
give a flat and deep feeling to the shape. Use the Polyqonal Lasso
selection tool to create the faces and the Paint Bucket tool to fill
them with gray colors 03 Add detail to the object Using the Brush
tool and a brighter color than the base, paint the weapon with an
almost white color to achieve a metallic feeling; note where metal
reflects light. Paint soft shadows on the holster to emulate the
fabric. Use the Dodge tool to add the highlights and create softer
lights 04 Colors Add a new layer in Color blending mode and paint
with a desaturated blue. Pick a green and paint only the shadow side
of the weapon and holster. In a new layer set to Normal mode, paint
where the highlights will be with a round brush at 20 pixels. Smooth
out the light and shadows on the gun to make it realistic O5 More
detail and realism Add contrast to color to create better volume.
Soften the fabric with the Smudge tool to create a realistic texture.
With a 10-pixel round brush, paint highlights on the metal and blend
the reflections. Add saturation to the shadow area with a layer set to
Overlay. Add smail details, like seams and creases with a small 2—5-
pixel round brush set to 100% opacity 186 To see dalemelei ra tip
used ina ilar] @aelsla-e) @ go to page 200
 Glasses by Bram "Boco’ Sels 01 Designing the glasses The
selling power of your image comes from the design of the glasses.
In this case | went for an old mode! that sits on the nose. and |
Started out by creating two separate layers for it; one with a dark
color for the frames and one with a gray color for the glass 02
Deciding on the color Once you have both layers you can decide
what material your glasses will be made of The glass itself is easy to
do, just put the layer's opacity to 20% (or more if you want thicker
glass), and that's it. The frames are a bit more difficult, but to begin
we'll decide on the color we want. | give them a gold/brass kind of
color by pressing Ctri+U and fiddling around with the sliders until |
am satisfied 03 Bevel & Emboss For shapes that are thin and small
like this one, Bevel & Emboss can get you started really quickly,
Double-click on your frames layer in the Layers palette, choose Bevel
& Emboss in the pop-up, and change the colors of the highlights and
shadows from white and black to browner colors. Hit OK and right-
click on the layer to Rasterize Layer Style. This merges the effect
into the layer 04 Highlights Bevel & Emboss can only get you so far
though. It's a digital effect and therefore looks like one, so it helps
to go back in and manually paint over the effect. Also think about
where the light is coming from (in my case from the top-left) and
accent the frames with some bright highlights in that direction O05
Cast shadow To make your glasses even more convincing paint in
the cast shadow tt leaves on the face. It helps to ground the glasses
on the nose and makes it all the more convincing. Finally you can
also add some little scratches and bumps to the mode! to make it a
little more worn and used 187
 Breakdown gallery Find inspiration for your own creations
with a gallery of diverse characters. In this section you will discover
a stunning gallery by a selection of talented artists, which will also
uncover the visual progression of each image as they reveal the
steps behind their process. This will enable you to understand how
different elements covered in this book can be combined and built
upon to produce a top-quality character painting.
by Chase Toole
Alchemist by Andrei Pervukhin 192
05 193
Femme fatale by Pyeongjun Park
by YongSub Noh
Bio-—mechanoid by Gerhard Mozsi 198
gm 8 i by Carlos Cabrera
Moonshine villain by Charlie Bowater
05 207
The socialite by Devon Cady-Lee 208 02 04
 Glossary Adjustments layer palette Above the Layers palette
(if it's missing go to Window > Adjustments) you'll find the
Adjustments layer palette. Each of the buttons here quickly creates a
new adjustment layer on top of the layer you have selected. What
an adjustment layer does is change the way all the layers below it
look. You have adjustment layers to change Background The
Background layer is the bottom layer of the layer stack. It's partially
locked because you can't put anything below it and it can't be
directly edited either. It is always at the very Blur Blurring is a
technique that's mostly used to reduce details and noise in an image
or layer In Photoshop there are typically two ways a blur can be
applied: the first, via Filter > Blur (Gaussian Blur being the most
notable here) the second via the Blur tool, found in the tool
Bounding box The bounding box is an invisible box that holds the
content of a layer. You can easily turn it visible by clicking on the
Select tool and checking the Show Transform Controls box. Now your
layer will be surrounded by its bounding box. The Transform Controls
on the side of the box can be used to quickly rotate and resize the
bounding box, simultaneously rotating and resizing what's in itas
well (see Rotate and Scale) 210 brightness, contrast, levels, hues,
colors and so on. The benefit of using these layers is that you
quickly tweak your image without actually changing the information
in the layers below. In other words, you can always go back and
change or delete the adjustment layer later if you're not happy with
the results bottom of the image and fills up the entire canvas (see
Canvas). It functions as the foundation on which you build your
image every new layer will be “built” on top of it bar under Smudge.
While the first applies an equal blur to the entire layer, the latter can
Bier effect be used as a brush in different places. Note that once you
apply a blur it's irreversible $0 it's a good idea to always keep a
backup layer before you start blurring away V Show Travalerm
Contec
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