Mark Scheme (Results)

Summer 2014

Pearson Edexcel International A Level in

Statistics 3
(WST03/01)
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Summer 2014
Publications Code IA040147
All the material in this publication is copyright
© Pearson Education Ltd 2014
 General Marking Guidance

 All candidates must receive the same treatment. Examiners must mark the
first candidate in exactly the same way as they mark the last.
 Mark schemes should be applied positively. Candidates must be rewarded for
what they have shown they can do rather than penalised for omissions.
 Examiners should mark according to the mark scheme not according to their
perception of where the grade boundaries may lie.
 There is no ceiling on achievement. All marks on the mark scheme should be
used appropriately.
 All the marks on the mark scheme are designed to be awarded. Examiners
should always award full marks if deserved, i.e. if the answer matches the
mark scheme. Examiners should also be prepared to award zero marks if the
candidate’s response is not worthy of credit according to the mark scheme.
 Where some judgement is required, mark schemes will provide the principles
by which marks will be awarded and exemplification may be limited.
 Crossed out work should be marked UNLESS the candidate has replaced it with
an alternative response.
 EDEXCEL IAL MATHEMATICS

General Instructions for Marking

1. The total number of marks for the paper is 75.

2. The Edexcel Mathematics mark schemes use the following types of marks:

 M marks: method marks are awarded for ‘knowing a method and attempting to apply it’,
unless otherwise indicated.
 A marks: Accuracy marks can only be awarded if the relevant method (M) marks have
been earned.
 B marks are unconditional accuracy marks (independent of M marks)
 Marks should not be subdivided.

3. Abbreviations

These are some of the traditional marking abbreviations that will appear in the mark schemes.

 bod – benefit of doubt

 ft – follow through
 the symbol will be used for correct ft
 cao – correct answer only
 cso - correct solution only. There must be no errors in this part of the question to
obtain this mark
 isw – ignore subsequent working
 awrt – answers which round to
 SC: special case
 oe – or equivalent (and appropriate)
 dep – dependent
 indep – independent
 dp decimal places
 sf significant figures
  The answer is printed on the paper
 The second mark is dependent on gaining the first mark

4. All A marks are ‘correct answer only’ (cao.), unless shown, for example, as A1 ft to
indicate that previous wrong working is to be followed through. After a misread however,
the subsequent A marks affected are treated as A ft, but manifestly absurd answers
should never be awarded A marks.

5. For misreading which does not alter the character of a question or materially simplify it,
deduct two from any A or B marks gained, in that part of the question affected.

6. Ignore wrong working or incorrect statements following a correct answer.

Question
Scheme Marks
Number
1. (a) 165, 8 B1
[1]
(b) Select every 6th person B1
{having chosen the first person by}
Selecting a random number between 1 and 6 or
dB1
selecting a random number and then loop back to start when you reach the end.

(b)(ii) The list is alphabetical and has not been sorted by gender. B1
[3]
(c) Label male members 1- 180, female members 1 – 120 M1
Use random numbers to select a ... M1
Simple random sample of 30 male members and 20 female members A1
[3]

(d) Any one of

 It (a stratified sample) is not biased as the members are chosen randomly.
 You can estimate the sampling errors (for a stratified sample)
 It (a stratrified sample) gives more accurate estimates as it is a random
process. B1
 A quota sample may be biased (whereas a stratrified sample is not).
 It’s not possible to estimate/find the sampling errors for a quota sample
(whereas you can for a stratified sample)
[1]
8
Notes
(a) B1 165 followed by 8 or 008.
(b)(i) 1st B1 For selecting every 6th (name on the list)
2nd dB1 is dependent on the first B1 mark being awarded.
For idea of using random numbers to select first from 1 to 6 or 0 to 5 (o.e.)
or selecting a random number between 1 and 300 and then looping back when the
end of the list has been reached.
(b)(ii) B1 A comment that implies the list (or sampling frame) has not been sorted by gender.
Note B0 for “the ordered list is not truly random”
Note B0 for “sample does not divide the members into gender.”
(c) 1st M1 For suitable labelling of all 180 males and all 120 females. E.g.
Allow labelling female members 181 – 300.
Also allow labelling male members 0 – 179 and female members
either 0 to 119 or 180 to 299.
2nd M1 For use of random numbers to select males and females.
A1 For 30 males and 20 females (dependent on 2nd M1 only)
Note A simple random sample of 30 males and 20 females scores 2nd M1 and A1.
(d) Note B0 for “a stratified sample can reflect the population structure.”
B0 for “estimates obtained from each of the strata.”
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
2. X follows a continuous unform distribution over [  3, 2  3]

(a) E( X )    2  32   3 M1

3
 . So X is a biased estimator. A1
2
 3   
bias      bias   B1
 2  2 2
[3]
2 2
(b) k B1
3 3
[1]
2 2
(c)  X  (8) “their k ”  8 M1
3 3
 16  2  "their  "  3
Max value  2    3 M1
 3 See notes
41 41 2
 or 13 or awrt 13.7 A1
3 3 3
[3]
7
Notes
a  b 3
(a) M1 Using the formula   or getting
 2  2
3 3
A1 and concluding. Allow A1 for  .
2 2

Note Also allow A1 for bias   0
2
(c) 1st M1 An attempt to use the sample data given to find x and multiply by their k.
x
Allow full expression for x or .
n
16
Note 1st M1 can be implied by a correct recovery leading to  
3
2nd M1 2  "their  "  3 where their  is a function of the sample mean - which found by
x
applying from the data values given in the question.
n
Note 2(13)  3  39 is M0M0A0
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
3. (a) H0 :  A  B H1 :  A   B B1
352 282
s.e.    4.81170448... M1 A1
80 100
  532  520 
532  520 dM1;
z ;  2.4939... "4.8117..."
"4.8117..."
awrt 2.49 A1
One tailed c.v. Z  2.3263 or CR: Z  2.3263 Critical value of 2.3263
Or a correct probability B1
or p-value  awrt 0.006  0.01 or "0.994"  0.99
comparison.
[in the CR/significant/Reject H 0 / "0.006"  0.01 / "0.994"  0.99 ]
Conclude either
 that the mean weight of grapefruit
from farm A is greater than that of A correct conclusion in context
farm B. which is based on their z-value
 that the average weight of and their critical value, A1
grapefruit from farm A is greater where c.v.  1 .
than that of farm B.
 that the grocer’s belief is correct.
[7]
7
Notes
B1 If  1 ,  2 used then it must be clear which refers to farm A and to farm B.
352 282 35 282
1st M1 Condone minor slips e.g.  or  etc.
100 80 80 100
i.e. swapped n or one s.d. and one variance.
352 282
1st A1 s.e.   . Or can be implied by s.e. = awrt 4.81
80 100
2nd dM1 is dependent upon the 1st M1.
You can follow through their s.e. if 1st M1 mark has been awarded.
(532  520)
M1A1dM1 is scored for writing z  
Note 352 282

80 100
Special 35 28
SC: M1A0M0A0 for s.e.   { 0.847...}
Case 80 100
Final A1 Dependent on the first two method marks being scored.
For a contextualised comment which is rejecting H 0 .
Contradictory statements score final A0. E.g. “significant, do not reject H 0 ”.
Alternative method for 2nd “M1A1B1” marks: Let D  x A  xB
D0 D
2.3263  dM1: dependent upon the 1st M1 for  2.3263 / 2.32 / 2.33
4.8117... their "4.8117..."
A1: D  awrt 11.2
So, D  11.193 B1: 2.3263
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
Man A B C D E F G H I J
4. (a) Rank x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Attempt to rank
Rank w 2 7 4 3 1 9 6 5 8 10 both for x
or and for w. M1
Man A B C D E F G H I J (at least four
Rank x 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 correct).
Rank w 9 4 7 8 10 2 5 6 3 1
For finding the difference between
each of the ranks M1
d 2
 1  25  1  1  16  9  1  9  1  0;  64 and evaluating  d 2 .

d 2
 64 A1
6 d 2

6(64)
Using 1 
10(99)
with their d 2
dM1;
rs  1  ;  0.6121212...
10(99) 101
or awrt 0.612 A1
165
[5]
(b) H 0 :   0 , H1 :   0 Both hypotheses stated correctly B1
Critical Value rs = 0.5636 or CR: rs  0.5636 Critical value of 0.5636 B1
Either
 Since rs  0.6121... lies in the CR
see notes M1
 Result is significant
 Reject H 0 ( condone H1 )
conclude that there is a positive correlation between
Conclusion in context A1
systolic blood pressure and weight.
[4]
(c) Both either
 Critical Value r = 0.5494
 CR: r  0.5494
and either
 Since r  0.5114 does not lie in the CR
 Result is not significant M1
 Do not reject H 0 (or accept H 0 )
Conclude that there is no positive correlation Context not required here. A1
[2]
(d) Either
 A comment that conveys both the ideas “as x increases, w increases” Any one of
and “the relationship is non-linear” these or B1
 “There is a positive correlation” and “the relationship is non-linear” equivalent.
 Data is not (bi-variate) normal
[1]
12
 Notes
4. (a)
6 d2
3rd dM1 is dependent on 1st M1 for use of 1 
10(99)
with their d 2

Note If a candidate finds d 2

 266 , leading to rs  awrt  0.612 then award M1M1A1M1A1.

(b) 1st B1 Both hypotheses stated in terms of  .

M1 For a correct statement relating their rs rs  1  with their c.v. where their c.v.  1
A1 For a contextualised comment which is rejecting H 0 , which must mention “positive
correlation”, “blood pressure” and “weight”. (Use of “association” is A0.)
Follow through their rs with their c.v. (provided their c.v.  1 )

Two-tailed
Applying a two-tailed test scores a maximum of B0B1M1A0
test
So Award SC B0B1 for H 0 :   0 , H1 :   0 followed by critical value rs = ( ) 0.6485
and allow access to the M1 mark only.
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
5. (a) H 0 : There is no association between type of drink and gender (independent) Correct
B1
H1 : There is an association between type of drink and gender (dependent) hypotheses
Some attempt at
Hot (Row Total)(Column Total)
Expected Tea Coffee Total
Chocolate (Grand Total) M1
Male 46.53 34.31 13.16 94 Can be implied by
Female 52.47 38.69 14.84 106 at least one correct Ei to 1d.p.
Total 99 73 28 200 All expected
frequencies are correct. A1
Condone exact fractions.
At least 2 correct terms for
(O  E ) 2 O2 (O  E ) 2 O2
Observed Expected or or correct
E E E E
dM1
57 46.53 2.3559... 69.8259... expressions with their Ei .
26 34.31 2.0127... 19.7027... Accept 2 sf accuracy
for the dM1 mark.
11 13.16 0.3545... 9.1945...
At least 5 correct
42 52.47 2.0892... 33.6192...
(O  E ) 2 O2
47 38.69 1.7849... 57.0949... or terms to
E E A1
17 14.84 0.3144... 19.4744... either 2 dp or better.
Totals 8.9116... 208.9116... Allow truncation.
For applying either
(O  E ) 2

(O  E ) 2
  
O2 O2 dM1
X2  or  200 ;  8.9116... or  200
E E E E
8.9 or awrt (8.88  8.91) A1
  (2  1)(3  1)  2  2 B1
c 22 (0.05)  5.991  CR: X 2  5.991 5.991 or ft c 2their v (0.05) B1ft
[in the CR/significant/Reject H 0 ]
conclude that there is an association between type of A correct conclusion in context
drink preferred and gender. (or they are not which is based on their X 2 -value A1
independent.) and their  2 -critical value.
[10]
(b) c (0.005)  10.597  CR: X  10.597
2
2
2
Critical value of 10.597 B1
[not in the CR/not significant/do not reject H 0 ]
Either
 Conclude there is no association between type of drink preferred
and gender (or they are independent).
Any one of these. B1
 The conclusion would change (if a correct H 0 has been rejected
in part (a)).
[2]
12
 Notes
st
5. (a) 1 B1 For both hypotheses. Must mention “drink” and “gender” or “sex” at least once.
Use of “relationship” or “correlation” or “connection” is B0.
2nd dM1 Dependent on the first method mark.
At least 2 correct terms (as in 3rd or 4th column) or correct expressions with their Ei
2nd A1 All correct terms to either 2 d.p. or better. Allow truncated answers.
3rd dM1 Dependent on the second method mark.
(O  E ) 2
 
O2
For applying either or  200
E E
3rd A1 8.9 or awrt (8.88  8.91)
2nd B1 v  2 This mark can be implied by a correct critical value of 5.991
Note If 8.9 or awrt (8.88  8.91) is seen (from a calculator) without the expected frequencies
stated then award special case M0A0M1A1M1A1.
Final A1 Dependent on the third method mark.
A correct contextualised conclusion which is rejecting H 0 .
Must mention “drink” and “gender” or “sex”.
No follow through. If e.g. hypotheses are the wrong way round A0 here.
Note Contradictory statements score A0. E.g. “significant, do not reject H 0 ”.
Note Condone “relationship” or “connection” here but not “correlation”.
e.g. “There is evidence of a relationship between grades and gender”
Note Full accuracy gives X 2  8.911619... and p-value 0.0116 to 0.0117
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
0(2)  1(21)  2(45)  3(42)  4(12)  5(3)  300  Answer is given.
6. (a) pˆ     0.3 (*) M1 A1cso
8(2  21  45  42  12  3) or 8(125)  1000  See notes.
[2]
(b) r  125  C3 (0.3) (0.7)
8 3
 31.76523...
5
(formula)
or r  125  (0.8059  0.5518)  31.7625 (tables)
s  125  (7.21  24.71  37.06  their r  17.02  5.83)  1.40477... or 1.4075 M1
or s  125  (1  0.9887)  1.4125
r  31.76523 or 31.7625 or 31.7575 r  awrt 31.77 or r  awrt 31.76 A1
s  1.40477 or 1.4075 or 1.4125 s  1.4 or awrt1.40 or s  awrt1.41 A1
[3]
(c)
# failed Comb Comb (O  E )2
O2
Oi Ei
tasks Oi Ei E E
0 2 7.21 2 7.21 3.7648... 0.5548...
1 21 24.71 21 24.71 0.5570... 17.8470...
2 45 37.06 45 37.06 1.7011... 54.6411...
31.77 31.77 3.2941... 55.5241...
3 42 42
(31.76) (31.76) (3.3016...) (55.5416...)
4 12 17.02 12 17.02 1.4806... 8.4606...
5 3 5.83 7.23 2.4748… 1.2448…
1.40 3 (7.24) (2.4831…) (1.2431…) M1
6 0 M1
(1.41) {7.25}
Totals 13.2724... 138.2724...
(13.2882...) (138.2882...)
For applying either


(O  E ) 2
  
2
O2 (O E ) O2 dM1
X2  or  125 ;  awrt 13.3 or  125
E E E E
awrt 13.3 A1
v  6 11 4 see notes B1 ft
a correct ft for their c 2k (0.05) ,
c 24 (0.05)  9.488  CR: X 2  9.488 B1
where k  n  1  1 from their n.
H 0 : Binomial distribution is a good(or suitable) model (or fit).
Correct hypotheses B1
H1 : Binomial distribution is not a suitable model.
[in the CR/significant/Reject H 0 ]
A correct conclusion (context not required
Binomial distribution is not a suitable model. here) which is based on their X 2 -value A1
and their  2 -critical value.
[8]
(d) Following from a correct conclusion in part (c), a comment conveying either
 p is not constant
B1
 employer’s belief is not justified.
[1]
14
 Notes
6. (a) M1 Must show clearly how to get either 300 or 1000.
A1 cso Showing how to get both 300 and 1000 and reaching p  0.3
(b) M1 For any correct method (or a correct expression) for finding either r or s.
A1 r  awrt 31.77 or r  awrt 31.76
A1 s  1.4 or awrt1.40 or s  awrt1.41
(c) 1st M1 For an attempt to pool 5 failed tasks and  6 failed tasks ONLY.
Note Give 1st M0 for pooling 0 failed tasks and 1 failed task.
2nd M1 For an attempt at the test statistic, at least 2 correct expressions/values
(to awrt 2 d.p. or truncated 2 d.p.)
3rd dM1 Dependent on the second method mark.
(O  E ) 2
 
O2
For applying either or  125
E E
st
1 A1 awrt 13.3
1st B1ft For their evaluated n  1  1 . i.e. realising that they must subtract 2 from their n.
2nd B1 For a correct ft for their c 2k (0.05) , where k  n  1  1 from their n.
3rd B1 Must have both hypotheses and mention Binomial at least once.
Inclusion of 0.3 for p in hypotheses is B0 but condone in conclusion.
Final A1 Dependent on the 2nd and 3rd Method marks only.
A correct conclusion (context not required) which is rejecting H 0 .
Note No follow through on their hypotheses if they are stated the wrong way round.
Note Contradictory statements score A0. E.g. “significant, do not reject H 0 ”.
Note Condone mentioning of Bin(8, 0.3) in conclusion
Note (O  E ) 2
Full accuracy gives a combined expected frequency of 7.245956...,  2.4880 ,
E
O2
 1.2421 , X 2  13.28333...
E
Note p-value for the test is 0.0099 to 0.0100
Note No combining gives X 2  13.58...
Note Combining 0/1 and 4/5/  6 gives X 2  11.02
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
7. (a) X  4Y  3W , Y N (40 , 32 ), W N (50 , 22 ); Y, W are independent.
E( X )  4E(Y )  3E(W )  4(40)  3(50)  E( X )  10 E( X )  10 (seen or implied) B1
Either (4 ) Var(Y ) or  (32 ) Var(W ) M1
2
Var( X )  16 Var(Y )  9 Var(W )
For adding the variances M1
Var( X )  16(9)  9(4)  Var( X )  180 Var( X )  180 A1
{So X N (10 , 180) }
 25  10  Standardising    with their mean
P( X  25)   P  Z   M1
 180  and their standard deviation
= P( Z  1.11803...) awrt  1.12 A1
 1  0.8686
= 0.1314 (or 0.131777...) awrt 0.131 or awrt 0.132 A1
[7]
3

(b) A Y
i 1
i ,C N (115 ,  2 ); P( A  C  0)  0.2 ; A, C are independent.

E( A  C )  3E(Y )  E(C )  3(40)  (115)  E( A  C )  5 E( A  C )  5 B1

Var( A  C )  3Var(Y )  Var(C ) 3Var(Y ) and a + ... M1
Var( A  C )  3(9)     Var( A  C )  27  
2 2
Var( A  C )  27   2 A1
{So A  C N (5 , 27   ) } 2

 5 
P( A  C  0)  0.2   P Z 

  0.2
 27   2 
Standardising    with their mean and their standard deviation
5 which is in terms of  2 and setting the result equal to k, M1
 k (  0.8416)
27   2 where k is in the interval [0.84, 0.85].
 0.8416 or awrt  0.8416 B1
Correct equation . See notes A1
2
 5  Squaring and rearranging
2     27    ...
2
dM1
  0.8416  leading to a positive value for  2 .
 2  8.2962... (= 8.4308... from using  0.84) awrt 8.3 or awrt 8.4 A1 cso
( = 8.2945... from calculator, so need awrt 8.29 for full marks if no prior working is shown.) [8]
15
(a) Note Condone applying reversed variances, e.g.16 (4)  9 (9) for the first 2 method marks.
Note Var( X )  180 with no working gets M1M1A1
Note Var( X )  48 with no working gets M0M1A0
Note Var( X )  108 with no working gets M1M0A0
Note Var( X )  24 with no working gets M0M0A0
 their E( A  C )
(b) 2nd M1 Allow  k , where k is in the interval (0.84, 0.85).
their Var( A  C )
2nd B1 For either  0.8416 or 0.8416
5 5
2nd A1 E.g. Allow  [  0.85,  0.84] or  [0.84, 0.85]
27   2
27   2
3rd M1 Dependent on the 2nd M1 mark being awarded.
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