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Computer Simulation in Management Science Fifth Edition

Computer Simulation in Management Science Fifth Edition Michael

Pidd Department of Management Science The Management School
Lancaster University John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Copyright cg 2004 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Pidd, Michael.
Computer simulation in management science / Michael Pidd.-5th ed.
p.cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-470-
09230-0 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Management science-Computer
simulatin. I. Title. T57.62.P532004 658.4'0352-dc22 2004003361
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for
this book is available from the British Library ISBN 0-470-09230-0
Project management by Originator, Gt Yarmouth, Norfolk (typeset in
1 O/12pt Photina) Printed and bound in Great Britain by TJ
International, Padstow, Cornwall This book is printed on acid-free
paper responsibly manufactured from sustainable forestry in which
at least two trees are planted for each one used for paper
production.

Contents Preface to the Fifth Edition xv PART I: FUNDAMENTALS OF

COMPUTER SIMULATION IN MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 1 1 The
computer simulation approach 3 1.1 Models, experiments and
computers 1.2 Some applications of computer simulation 1. 2 .1
Manufacturing 1.2.2 Health care 1.2.3 Business process re-
engineering 1.2.4 Transport systems 1.2.5 Defence 1.3 Models in
management science 1.4 Simulation as experimentation 1.5 Why
simulate? 1.5.1 Simulation versus direct experimentation 1.5.2
Simulation versus mathematical modelling 1.6 Summary Exercises
References 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 2 A variety of
modelling approaches 15 2.1 General considerations 15 2.2 Time
handling 15 2.2.1 Time slicing 15 2.2.2 Next-event technique 17
2.2.3 Time slicing or next event? 18 2.3 Stochastic or deterministic?
18 2.3.1 Deterministic simulation: a time-slicing example 19 2.3.2
Stochastic simulation 21

vi CONTENTS 2.4 Discrete or continuous change 2.4.1 Discrete

change 2.4.2 Continuous change 2.4.3 A few words on simulation
software Exercises References 25 26 26 27 27 28 3 Computer
simulation in practice 29 3.1 Process, content, problem and project
3.1.1 Process and content 3.1. 2 Problems and projects 3.1.3 Two
parallel streams 3.2 The simulation problem part of the study 3.3
Problem structuring 3.3.1 Problem structuring as exploration 3.4
Modelling 3.4.1 Conceptual model building 3.4.2 Computer
implementation 3.4.3 Validation 3.4.4 Experimentation 3.4.5
Implementation 3.5 The project part of the study 3.5.1 Initial
negotiation and project definition 3.5.2 Project management and
control 3.5.3 Project completion Exercises References 29 29 30 30
32 32 33 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 43 44 4 Static Monte Carlo
simulation 45 4.1 Basic ideas 4.1.1 Risk and uncertainty 4.1.2 The
replacement problem: a reprise 4.1.3 Static Monte Carlo simulation
defined 4.2 Some important considerations 4.2.1 Subjective
probabilities 4.2.2 Repeatability 4.3 Some simple static simulations
4.3.1 The loan repayment 4.3.2 An investment decision 4.4
Simulation on spreadsheets Exercises References 45 45 46 47 49 49
50 51 51 53 57 58 59

CONTENTS vii PART II: DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION 61 5 Discrete

event modelling 63 5.1 Fundamentals 5.2 Terminology 5.2.1 Objects
of the system 5.2.2 The organization of entities 5.2.3 Operations of
the entities 5.3 Activity cycle diagrams 5.3.1 Example 1: a simple job
shop 5.3.2 Example 2: the harassed booking clerk 5.3.3 Example 3:
the delivery depot 5.3.4 Using the activity cycle diagram 5.4 Activity
cycle diagrams: a caveat Exercises References 63 63 64 65 65 66 68
71 74 77 78 79 81 6 How discrete simulation software worli.S 83 6.1
Introduction 83 6.1.1 Why understand how simulation software is
organized? 83 6.1.2 Simulation executives in more detail 84 6.1.3
Application logic 85 6.2 The three-phase approach 85 6.2.1 Bs 85
6.2.2 Cs 86 6.2.3 The exception to the general rule 87 6.2.4 Bs and
Cs in the harassed booking clerk problem 88 6.2.5 Another example:
aT-junction 89 6.3 How the three-phase approach works 90 6.3.1
The A phase 92 6.3.2 TheBphase 92 6.3.3 The C phase 92 6.4 The
harassed booking clerk-a manual three-phase simulation 93 6.4.1
The first A phase 94 6.4.2 The first B phase 94 6.4.3 The first C
phase 95 6.4.4 The second A phase 95 6.4.5 The next Band C
phases 96 6.4.6 The third A phase 96 6.4.7 The third B phase 96 6.5
The event-based worldview 97 6.5.1 Events in the harassed booking
clerk problem 97 6.5.2 Event-based executives 99

viii CONTENTS 6.6 The activity-scanning approach 100 6.6.1

Activities 100 6.6.2 Activity-scanning executives 101 6.7 Process-
based approaches 101 6.7.1 Processes in the harassed booking clerk
pro blem 102 6.7.2 Process interaction 103 6.7.3 Process-based
executives 104 6.8 Which approach is best? 105 6.8.1 Three-phase
versus process-based approaches 105 Exercises 106 References 108
7 Writing a three-phase simulation program 109 7.1 Introduction 109
7.1.1 The basic structure of the library 110 7.2 Inside the executive
III 7.2.1 The control array 112 7.2.2 Using the control array to
operate a three-phase simulation 112 7.3 The Visual Basic
implementation 113 7.3.1 Some comments on Visual Basic 113 7.3.2
The variables and their types 114 7.3.3 The A phase 116 7.3.4 The B
phase 118 7.3.5 The C phase 119 7.3.6 Running the simulation 119
7.4 Using VBSim to simulate the harassed booking clerk problem 120
7.4.1 Entities, Bs andCs 120 7.4.2 Personal enquirers and phone calls
arrive 121 7.4.3 The end of personal service and phone calls 123
7.4.4 Observations 124 7.4.5 The Cs 124 7.4.6 Initialization and
finalization 125 7.5 Putting it all together 126 Exercises 12 7
References 128 8 Visual interactive modelling and simulation 129 8.1
Basic ideas 8.1.1 Visual interactive modelling (VIM) 8.1.2 Visual
simulation output 8.1.3 Interaction 8.1.4 A caveat 8.2 Designing a
visual simulation display 8.2.1 Iconic displays 129 129 130 131 132
132 133

CONTENTS ix 8.2.2 Logical displays 134 8.2.3 Chart displays 135 8.3
VIMS 136 8.3.1 Joe's exhaust parlour 136 8.3.2 Joe's exhaust
parlour in Micro Saint: model building 138 8.3.3 Joe's exhaust
parlour in Micro Saint: running and analysing the simulation 140
8.3.4 Joe's exhaust parlour in SIMUL8: model building 143 8.3.5
Joe's exhaust parlour in SIMUL8: running and analysing the
simulation 145 8.4 Visual interactive simulation: a reprise 146
Exercises 146 References 146 9 Discrete simulation software 149 9.1
General principals 149 9.2 A quick overview of discrete simulation
software 150 9.3 VIMS and their relatives 151 9.3.1 VIMS-a reprise
151 9.3.2 Block diagram systems 152 9.3.3 VIMS and block diagram
systems 157 9.4 Programming using a general purpose language
158 9.4.1 Pros and cons 158 9.4.2 Libraries and component-based
software 159 9.5 Programming approaches using simulation
languages 161 9.5.1 Common features of simulation languages 162
9.5.2 An example: SIMSCRIPT 11.5 163 9.6 Layered systems and
application templates 168 9.6.1 Layered systems 168 9.6.2
Application templates 169 9.7 Appraising simulation software: some
principles 169 9.7.1 The type of application 170 9.7.2 The
expectations for end use 170 9.7.3 Knowledge, computing policy and
user support 171 9. 7.4 Price 1 71 9.8 Which to choose? Horses for
courses 172 9.8.1 VIMS 172 9.8.2 Simulation languages 172
References 1 73 10 Sampling methods 1 75 10.1 Basic ideas 175
10.1.1 General principles of random sampling 176 10.1.2 Top-hat
sampling 177

x CONTENTS 10.1.3 The fundamental random sampling process 178

10.1.4 Use of pre-written libraries of algorithms 179 10.2 Random
number generation 179 10.2.1 Truly random numbers 179 10.2.2
Pseudo-random numbers 180 10.2.3 Congruential generators 181
10.2.4 General requirements for these generators 182 10.2.5
Multiplicative congruential generators 182 10.2.6 Improving on
simple congruential generators 184 10.2.7 Using inbuilt random
number generators 185 10.3 Testing random number generators 185
10.3.1 Scatter plots 186 10.3.2 Auxiliarysequences 187 10.3.3
Frequency tests 187 10.3.4 Serial test 188 10.3.5 Gap test 188
10.3.6 Other tests 188 10.4 General methods for random sampling
from continuous distributions 189 10.4.1 Inversion 189 10.4.2
Rejection 192 10.4.3 Composition 193 10.5 Random sampling
algorithms for discrete distributions 193 10.5.1 Sampling from
histograms 193 10.5.2 Implicit inverse transformation 194 10.5.3
Discrete rejection-samples from a Poisson distribution 196 10.6
Sampling from the normal distribution 197 10.6.1 TheoriginalBox-
Miillermethod 198 10.6.2 Box-Miiller polar variation 199 10.6.3
Sampling from a normal distribution by composition 200 10.6.4 A
poor way to sample from the normal distribution 201 10.7 Deriving
one distribution from another-lag-normal variates 201 10.8 Sampling
from non-stationary processes: thinning 202 Exercises 203
References 204 11 Planning and analysing discrete simulation output
207 11.1 Fundamental ideas 11.1.1 Simulation as directed
experimentation 11.1.2 Estimation and comparison 11.1.3 Three
important principles 11.1.4 Some preliminary advice 11.2 Dealing
with transient effects 11.2.1 Terminating and non-terminating
systems 11.2.2 Achieving steady state 11.2.3 Using a run-in period
207 207 208 209 210 210 210 212 213

CONTENTS xi 11.2.4 Welch's method for determining the run-in

period 214 11.3 Dealing with lack of independence 215 11.3.1
Simple replication 215 11. 3 .2 Using batch means 216 11. 3.3
Overlapping batch means (OBM) 217 11.3.4 Regenerative methods
218 11. 4 Variance reduction 2 18 11.4.1 The basic problem-
sampling variation 219 11.4.2 Set and sequence effects 220 11.4.3
Common random number streams and synchronization 222 11.4.4
Control variates (regression sampling) 223 11.4.5 Antitheticvariates
225 11.5 Descriptive sampling 226 11.5.1 Basic idea 226 11.5.2
Procedure 227 11.6 Experimentation 228 11.6.1 Basic ideas 228
11.6.2 Factorial experiments 229 Exercises 23 1 References 23 1 12
Model Testing and Validation 233 12.1 The importance of validation
233 12.1.1 Validation is impossible, but desirable 233 12.1.2 Some
practical issues 234 12.1.3 The "real" world, the model and
observation 235 12.1.4 The hypothetic a-deductive approach 236
12.1.5 The importance of process and other aspects 237 12.2
Validation and comparison 237 12.2.1 Experimentalframes 238
12.2.2 Program verification and model validation 239 12.3 Black box
validation 240 12.3.1 Black box validation: a model's predictive
power 240 12.3.2 How valid? 240 12.3.3 Validation errors 241 12.3.4
Testing model components 241 12.4 White box validation 242 12.4.1
Detailed internal structure 242 12.4.2 Input distributions 242 12.4.3
Static logic 243 12.4.4 Dynamic logic 244 12.5 Type zero errors 245
12.5.1 Over-elaboration 245 12.5.2 Over-simplification 246 12.5.3
Steering a sensible course 246 References 246
xii CONTENTS PART III: SYSTEM DYNAMICS 247 13 Structure,
behaviour, events and Feedbacl{ systems 249 13.1 Events,
behaviours and structures 249 13.1.1 System simulation 249 13.1.2
The importance of system structure 2 50 13.2 Feedback systems 251
13.2.1 Hierarchical feedback systems: an example 251 13.2.2 Causal
loop diagrams 253 13.3 Modelling feedback systems 255 13.3.1
Delays 255 13.3.2 Levels and stocks 256 13.3.3 Rates and flows 257
13.3.4 Policies 258 13.4 The origings of system dynamics 258 13.4.1
Control theory 259 Exercises 260 References 261 14 System
dynamics modelling and simulation 263 14.1 Introduction 263 14.1.1
Stock and flow diagrams 264 14.1.2 A stock and flow diagram for
Big AI's problem 265 14.2 Beyond the diagrams-system dynamics
simulation 266 14.2.1 Time handling in system dynamics 267 14.2.2
Equation types 268 14.2.3 Powersim equations for Big AI's problem
269 14.2.4 Integration and the value of dt 270 14.3 Simulating
delays in system dynamics 272 14.3.1 Pipeline delays 272 14.3.2
Exponentialdelays 272 14.3.3 Information delays 274 14.4 System
dynamics modelling 274 14.4.1 Modelling from the outside in 275
14.4.2 Modelling from the inside out 276 Exercises 2 77 References
2 77 15 System dynamics in practice 279 15.1 Associated Spares Ltd
15.1.1 The problem as originally posed 15.1.2 The multi-echelon
system 15.1.3 The retail branch model 15.1.4 The regional
warehouse model 279 279 280 280 283

CONTENTS xiii 15.1. 5 The central warehouse model 284 1 5.1.6 The
total system model 28 5 15.1.7 Some conclusions 286 15.1. 8 A
postscript 287 15.2 Dynastat Ltd 288 15.2.1 An expansion
programme 288 15.2.2 The manpower problem 288 15.2.3
Recruitment 288 15.2.4 Turnover 289 15.2.5 Some effects of this
structure 290 15.2. 6 Validating the model 290 15.2.7 Simulation
results 291 15.2.8 Predicting length of service 292 15.2.9 The value
of the exercise to Dynastat 292 15.3 System dynamics in practice
293 15.3.1 Simple models 293 15.3.2 Communication 294 15.3.3
New thinking 294 15.3.4 Evolutionary involvement 295 References
295 Index 297
For SallYI Karen and Helen who have been a constant
encouragement during the two decades since I first proposed this
book.

Preface to the Fifth Edition As in the previous editions, this book is

aimed at management science students and practitioners who need
to learn how to conduct computer simulation studies. As before, its
main focus is on simulation modelling and all the material is
organized to that end. Since 1997, when I wrote the fourth edition,
progress in computing and in computer simulation has continued
apace. Hence the changes in this edition aim to keep the book up to
date, whilst making whatever other improvements seem sensible.
When I started work on the first edition in 1982 I had no idea that I
would be working on a fifth edition over 20 years later. Much as
software and hardware are upgraded every so often, so, it seems,
are books. A number of people have helped me in producing this
fifth edition by sug- gesting improvements to the third edition. They
include David Lane, Joyce Brown, Sarah Cope, Robert Fildes and
Nuno Melao. John Crookes, though now retired, stimulated many of
my original ideas and I am grateful to him for that. I acknowledge
the help and encouragement of Sarah Booth and her colleagues at
John Wiley & Sons and also the cooperation of Lanner Systems,
Micro Analysis and Design and the Simul8 Corporation. To all these,
thank you for your help-but I take the blame for any mistakes that
remain. Thanks to small laptop computers and the appalling
timekeeping of the Virgin West Coast train company, much more of
this edition has been written on trains than I had ever thought
possible. Perhaps if they made more use of the modelling
approaches described here, things would be better? As before, the
book is organized around three parts. PART I: FUNDAMENTALS OF
COMPUTER SIMULATION IN MANAGEMENT SCIENCE There are four
chapters in Part I and they provide a general introduction to the
principles of computer simulation. Chapter 3, Computer Simulation in
Practice suggests how a simulation study might be conducted.
Chapter 4 is wholly new and discusses the use of static Monte Carlo
methods in managing risk and uncertainty. The whole of Part I is
deliberately non-technical and makes little or no demand on
computing or statistical knowledge, other than the

xvi PREFACE TO THE FIFTH EDITION ability to use spreadsheets. It

serves as an introduction to those who wish to follow the rest of the
book in detail, but is also aimed at MBA and undergradu- ate
business majors who wish to gain an overview of the subject. PART
II: DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION This is aimed at those readers
who need to know how to produce valid, working discrete event
simulation models. It covers four important aspects of discrete event
simulation methods. (1) Discrete event modelling: Chapter 5
introduces the general terminology of discrete event simulation and
shows, in some detail, how different ap- proaches may be
implemented. This is then continued in Chapter 6 to show how the
internals of discrete simulations can be programmed. Chapter 12
discusses the important issue of model testing and validation,
something that is so often squeezed out in practice. (2) Computing
aspects: Chapters 7, 8 and 9 cover different aspects of computing
that are related to discrete simulation. Chapter 7 shows how a three-
phase simulation model may be easily implemented in almost any
programming language. To support Chapter 7 I have made a set of
three-phase libraries available in C, C++, Visual Basic, Turbo Pascal
and Java. These can be found at http://www.lancs.ac.uk/staff/
smamp/. I retain copyright but accept no responsibility for their use
or misuse. Chapter 7 introduces two commonly used Visual
Interactive Modelling Systems-Micro Saint and SIMUL8. Chapter 8
provides a review of the main types of software available for discrete
event simulation. (3) Statistical aspects: Chapters 10 and 11 are
concerned with the statistical aspects of discrete event simulation
and form the final section of Part II. They describe how sampling
methods can be built into simulation models and how to disentangle
the problems of experimentation that follow in their wake. To follow
these chapters properly, the reader needs to understand basic
probability and statistics. (4) Chapter 12 discusses the important
issue of model testing and validation, something that is so often
squeezed out in practice. This chapter could also sit in Part III,
which is why it is placed at the end of Part II. PART III: SYSTEM
DYNAMICS The methods of system dynamics as first propounded by
Jay Forrester are, in my opinion, still the most widely used formal
simulation methods in manage- ment science after discrete event
methods. Hence I have devoted three chapters to the topic and have
attempted to provide a general introduction to its methodology in
Chapter 14. Chapter 15 discusses the detail of the approach and
Chapter 16 describes work carried out by Brian Parker in using the
methods to tackle managerial problems.

Part I

Fundamentals of Computer Simulation in Management Science

The Computer Simulation Approach

1.1 MODELS, EXPERIMENTS AND COMPUTERS

Management scientists are not easily separated from their computers

and for good reason. Since the 1960s, computers have become
smaller, cheaper, more powerful and easier to use by non-specialists.
In particular, the develop- ment of powerful and cheap portable
machines with excellent graphics has opened up wide areas of work
for the management scientist. Modern computers allow the analyst
to explore the whole range of feasible options in a decision problem.
These options could be explored without a computer but the process
would be very slow and the problem may well change significantly
before a satisfactory solution is produced. With a computer, large
amounts of data can be quickly processed and presented as a
report. This is extremely valuable to the management scientist. One
way in which a management scientist uses a computer is to simulate
some system or other. This is generally done when it is impossible or
inconvenient to find some other way of tackling the problem. In such
simulations, a computer is used because of its speed in mimicking a
system over a period of time. Again, most of these simulations could
(in theory at least) be performed without a computer. But in most
organizations, important problems have to be solved quickly: hence
the use of computer simulation in management science. Computer
simulation methods have developed since the early 1960s and may
well be the most commonly used of all the analytical tools of
management science. The basic principles are simple enough. The
analyst builds a model of the system of interest, writes computer
programs that embody the model and uses a computer to imitate
the system's behaviour when subject to a variety of operating
policies. Thus, the most desirable policy may be selected. For
example, a biscuit company may wish to increase the throughput at
a distribution depot. Suppose that the biscuits arrive at the depot on
large articulated trucks and, are unloaded and transferred onto
storage racks by forklift trucks. When required, the biscuits are
removed from the racks and loaded onto small delivery vans for
despatch to particular retail customers. To increase the throughput,
a number of options might present themselves to the management.
For example, they could:

4 THE COMPUTER SIMULATION APPROACH

(1) Increase the number ofloading or unloading bays. (2) Increase
the number of forklift trucks. (3) Use new systems for handling the
goods, etc.

It would be possible to experiment on the real depot by varying

some of these factors but such trials would be expensive and time
consuming. The simulation approach to this problem involves the
development of a model of the depot. The model is simply an
unambiguous statement of the way in which the various components
of the system (e.g., trucks and lorries) interact to produce the
behaviour of the system. Once the model has been translated into a
computer program the high speed of the computer allows a
simulation of, say, six months in a few moments. The simulation
could also be repeated with the various factors at different levels to
see the effect of more loading bays, for example. In this way, the
programmed model is used as the basis for experimentation. By
doing so, many more options can be examined than would be
possible in the real depot-and any disruption is avoided: hence the
attraction of computer simulation methods. To summarize, in a
computer simulation we use the power of a computer to carry out
experiments on a model of the system of interest. In most cases,
such simulations could be done by hand-but few people would wish
to do so. Now that computers offer significant power for a minimal
cost, a computer simulation approach seems to make even more
sense in management science.

1.2 SOME APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTER SIMULATION

Though it is impossible to be sure which techniques are most

commonly used in management science, the occasional surveys of
practitioners usually report simulation methods in the top three. This
section briefly reviews some of the main application areas.

1.2.1 Manufacturing

As markets for manufactured goods have become globalized,

manufacturers have increasingly attempted to mass customize their
products. That is, they have sought economies of scale by
developing products that will have global appeal and should sell in
many countries. At the same time they have had to ensure that the
products themselves are suited to local preferences, which means
they have had to produce local variants of the global designs. This
mass customization, sometimes known as glocalization, has placed
great pressure on manufacturers to develop and install
manufacturing systems that can deliver high volumes of high-quality
goods at low cost to meet local needs. This has led to huge
investments in manufacturing plant and asso- ciated control
systems. It is important to ensure that such systems operate as
intended, and therefore computer simulation methods have found an
important place in the process of designing and implementing these
manufac- turing plant and systems.

SOME APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTER SIMULATION 5

Examples of this use of computer simulation occur across most

manufacturing sectors and include food manufacturing (Pidd, 1987),
semi- conductor wafer fabrication (De Jong, 2001), beverages
(Harrell, 1993), automobile manufacture (Ladbrook and Januszczak,
2001), aerospace (Lu and Sundaram, 2002), shipbuilding (Williams
et aI., 2001) and materials handling (Burnett and LeBaron, 2001).
Simulation allows the comparison of alternative designs and control
policies on the model before starting to build the physical plant. It
helps to reduce the cost and risk of large-scale errors. Simulation
approaches are also used on existing plant to find better ways to
operate, and these studies might be one-off exercises or may be
part of a periodic check on the running of the system.

1.2.2 Health care

As with manufacturing, there is also a need to make effective use of

limited resources when providing and delivering health care. Thus,
simulation approaches have found widespread application in health
care systems around the world. Hupert et aI. (2002) discuss the
distribution of antibiotics and vaccines to dispensing centres in the
event of a terrorist attack. Ceric (1990) describes how the methods
were used to plan a system to move goods and equipment around a
large new hospital in an effective and efficient manner. McGuire
(1994) reports on the use of simulation for the planning of effective
emergency departments. In all such simulations, the idea was to test
different policies without putting patients to inconvenience or placing
them at risk. Simulation is also used to assess the effect of different
treatment pro- grammes. For example, Davies et aI. (2002) used
simulation to investigate ways in which the eyesight of diabetic
patients can be more effectively preserved and Jacobsen et aI.
(2001) used it to assess the value of paediatric immunization
programmes.

1.2.3 Business process re-engineering

Recent years have seen an increasing concern by businesses to
ensure that their core processes are operated effectively and
efficiently, and this has been the aim of business process re-
engineering (BPR). In BPR the idea is to take a fundamental look at
the basic processes without which the business could not function
and which contribute in a major way to both profit and cost. In some
ways, the stress on BPR mirrors the shift in manufacturing from
batch production towards flow-line manufacturing. An example of a
BPR exercise might be an investigation of the various operations and
activities involved in delivering goods to a customer, and in invoicing
that customer and in receiving payment. In a traditional system, the
paperwork and computer- based documentation might need to pass
through several different departments. Taking a radical look at such
processes might lead to great simplification and thus to reduced
costs and to better service. The aim of BPR is to take an integrated
view of such activities and to find ways to provide a better service at
lower cost by more effective organization.

6 THE COMPUTER SIMULATION APPROACH

Dennis et ai. (2000) summarize some applications in the telecomms

industry. Bhaskar et al. (1994) identify computer simulation as one
of the key approaches to understanding how business processes
might be re-engineered to improve performance. Davies (1994)
describes how simulation has been used in BPR in the UK financial
services industry. Companies providing these financial services in the
UK must meet legal time limits for their responses to customers and
must also carry out a series of checks required by law-in addition to
their own internal monitoring. Davies (1994) developed a simula-
tion model known as SCOPE to enable organizations to organze their
office processes so as to achieve target performance levels. SCOPE
works by simulat- ing the flow of documents through the
organization.

1.2.4 Transport systems

Computer simulation is also used in a wide range oftransportation

systems. As with other applications, the idea is to ensure that the
system operates as effi- ciently and as effectively as possible. In the
aviation sector, simulation methods have, for example, been used to
help plan large passenger terminals. Airport terminals include
systems for moving baggage and for ensuring that passengers can
get to the departure gates in time for their planes, and a number of
simulations have been used to assess their performance (e.g.,
Joustra and Van Dijk, 2001). Also in the aviation sector, air traffic
control systems are used to ensure that air space is used efficiently
and safely. As part of this, the air traffic controllers must ensure that
the movement of aircraft is planned in advance and then managed in
real time. Simulation approaches have made a great contribution to
safer and more cost-effective air traffic control (e.g., Lee et aI.,
2001). The shipping sector has also been a long-term user of
computer methods. Indeed, one of the computer simulation
programming languages (CSL; Buxton and Laski, 1962) was first
developed by Esso (predecessor of Exxon) to support simulations of
the movement of crude and refined oil around the world. Shipping
applications continue to this day and an example is given in Heath
(1993). Salt (1991) reports how simulation methods were used to
help plan the movement of traffic in the Channel Tunnel that links
the UK and France. Though the introduction of this service was
controversial, it is clear that one key to its future success is the
reliability ofthe service that it offers. Unlike the ferries which also ply
the route, bad weather should not prevent the operation of the
tunnel service. It was therefore crucial that its operations were
properly planned and managed. Salt (op cit) gives interesting
examples of how this was supported by computer simulation
approaches. The road transport sector is also a major user of
computer simulation methods both to plan individual companies'
operations and to investigate road traffic systems in general. Traffic
simulators are now a standard part of the armoury of road traffic
planners (Pidd, 1995; Rathi and Santiago, 1990; Young et aI., 1989)
since they permit possible road configurations and traffic
management schemes to be refined before their physical
implementation.

MODELS IN MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 7

1.2.5 Defence

The defence sector is also a major user of simulation methods and

the Proceed- ings of the Winter Simulation Conference usually
include a range of papers discussing work in this area (e.g., see
Robinson, 2001). Applications range from studies oflogistics
operations through to battle simulations, which inves- tigate possible
strategies and tactics to be used in defence or attack. Their appeal
here is obvious; no battle commander wishes to be defeated and the
chance to develop tactics beforehand and to prepare
countermeasures is of some importance. Not surprisingly, the
majority of defence simulations are not reported in the open
literature.

1.3 MODELS IN MANAGEMENT SCIENCE

Models of various types are often used in management science.
They are repre- sentations of the system of interest and are used to
investigate possible improvements in the real system or to discover
the effect of different policies on that system. This is not the place
for a detailed exposition of modelling; for this the reader should
consult Miser and Quade (1988), Pidd (2003), Rivett (1994), or
White (1975). However, some mention of the topic is necessary. The
simplest type of model employed in management is probably a scale
model, possibly of a building. By using scale models it is possible to
plan sensible layouts of warehouses, factories, offices, etc. In a scale
model, physical properties are simply changed in scale and the
relationship of the model to the full-scale system is usually obvious.
However, such simple scale models do have significant
disadvantages. First, a scale model is concrete in form and highly
specific. No one would contemplate using the same scale model for
a chemical factory and a school-the two require distinctly different
buildings. More subtly, to experi- ment with a scale model always
requires physical alteration of the model. This can be tiresome and
expensive. Second, scale models are static. That is, they cannot
show how the various factors interact dynamically. For example,
suppose that a warehouse is being designed. One issue that must be
considered is the relationship between the internal capacity of the
building and the number of loading or unloading bays provided for
vehicles. Though it is easy to design a warehouse that always has
enough internal space-simply make it too big-this is clearly a waste
of money. Given that both the demand for the products and the
produc- tion level will vary, the art is to design a building that
balances the cost of shortages with the cost of over capacity. Such a
balance will vary over time, particularly for seasonal products. No
scale model could consider this. Management scientists tend to
employ mathematical and logical models rather than scale models.
Mathematical models represent the important factors of a system by
a series of equations that may sometimes be solved to produce an
optimal solution. Many of the commonly employed techniques
described in management science textbooks are of this form

8 THE COMPUTER SIMULATION APPROACH

(e.g., mathematical programming, game theory, etc.). For computer

simula- tion, logical models are usually required-though in the case
of system dynamics (see Chapters 13 to 15) these are expressed in
a mathematical form. The simplest way of thinking about logical
models is to consider flow diagrams of various kinds. Industrial
engineers often employ flow process charts in method study (Slack
et aI., 1995) to display the various processes through which
products pass in their manufacture and assembly. That is, the charts
display the logic of the production process. Such a chart might show
that a car body needs to be thoroughly degreased before any
painting can begin. Instead of drawing a chart it is possible to
represent the logic as a set of instructions. If these directions are
clear and unambiguous, then they could be used to show someone
how to do the job. Modern digital computers are logical machines
that obey a sequence of in- structions, thus any sequence of
instructions can form the basis of a computer program-which makes
computer simulation possible. At some stage the simulation model,
which may initially exist on scraps of paper, in agreed documents or
in some formal set of flow diagrams, must be translated into a form
that a computer can recognize and obey. Once in a computable
form, the model may be easily modified so as to permit a wide range
of options to be compared in simulation experiments.

1.4 SIMULATION AS EXPERIMENTATION

Computer simulation involves experimentation on a computer-based
model of some system. The model is used as a vehicle for
experimentation, often in a "trial and error" way to demonstrate the
likely effects of various policies. Those that produce the best results
in the model would be candidates for imple- mentation in the real
system. Figure 1.1 shows the basic idea. Sometimes these
experiments may be quite sophisticated, involving the use of
statistical design techniques. Such sophistication is necessary if there
is a set of different effects that may be produced in the results by
several interacting policies. At the other extreme, the
experimentation may be very simple, taking the form of "what if?"
questions. Thus, if the simulation model

Inp uts (poli ses)

uts Outp cies) SIMULATION (respon

... ......... MODEL(S) ,.

Interaction and experimentation Figure 1.1 Simulation as

experimentation

WHY SIMULATE? 9

represents the financial flows in an organization over the next 12

months, typical questions might be:
. "What if interest rates rise by 3%?" . "What if the market grows by
5% this year?"

To answer these questions, the simulation is carried out with the

appropriate variables of the program set to these values.

1.5 WHY SIMULATE?

Certainly, computer simulation is no panacea. Realistic simulations

may require long computer programs of some complexity. There are
special purpose simulation languages and packaged systems
available to ease this task, but it is still rarely simple. Consequently,
producing useful results from a computer simulation can turn out to
be a surprisingly time-consuming process. In one way, therefore,
computer simulation should be regarded as a last resort-to be used
if all else fails. However, there are certain advantages in employing a
simulation approach in management science and it may be the only
way of tackling some problems. Assuming that a management
scientist does not wish to make an instant "seat of the pants"
judgement of a particular problem, various modes of approach are
possible. First, it may be possible to conduct experiments directly on
the real system. For example, the police may experiment with mock
radar speed traps to see if this reduces the number and severity of
accidents reported. Second, the analyst may be able to construct
and use a mathematical model of the system of interest. For
example, Thomas et al. (2001) describe how mathematical
programming techniques are used in credit scoring and Wright
(1994) describes how heuristics are used to timetable English
cricket. A third possibility is to simulate the system.
1.5.1 Simulation versus direct experimentation

Then why simulate when it will be time consuming and there may be
alterna- tive approaches? Considered against real experimentation,
simulation has the following advantages:

. Cost. Though simulation can be time consuming and therefore

expensive in terms of skilled manpower, real experiments may also
turn out to be expensive-particularly if something goes wrong! .
Time. Admittedly, it takes a significant amount of time to produce
working computer programs for simulation models. However, once
these are written then an attractive opportunity presents itself.
Namely it is possible to simulate weeks, months or even years in
seconds of computer time. Hence a whole range of policies may be
properly compared.

10 THE COMPUTER SIMULATION APPROACH

. Replication. Unfortunately, the real world is rarely kind enough to

allow precise replication of an experiment. One of the skills
employed by physical scientists is the design of experiments that are
repeatable by other scientists. This is rarely possible in management
science. It seems unlikely that an organization's competitors will sit
idly by as a whole variety of pricing policies are attempted in a bid to
find the best. It is even less likely that a military adversary will allow
a replay of a battle. Simula- tions are precisely repeatable. . Safety.
One of the objectives of a simulation study may be to estimate the
effect of extreme conditions, and to do this in real life may be
dangerous or even illegal. An airport authority may take some
persuading to allow a doubling of the flights per day even if they do
wish to know the capacity of the airport. Simulated aircraft cause
little damage when they run out of fuel in the simulated sky. .
Legality. Even when not employed by the mafia there are times
when an analyst may wish to investigate the effect of changes in
legislation. For example, a company may wish to see what the effect
would be on its delivery performance of changes in the laws that
control drivers hours of work.

1.5.2 Simulation versus mathematical modelling

What, then, of the other possibility of building and using a

mathematical model of the system? Here too there are problems.
First, most mathematical models cannot satisfactorily cope with
dynamic or transient effects and operate instead with average
values. However, in any dynamic system, steady state values can be
very misleading, particularly if there is statistical variation in
demand. Even though average demand is met, this may not be true
of peak demand. The challenge is to design such systems to meet
reason- able demand without having idle resources "just in case".
Thus, the model may need to take account of the statistical variation
that is inherent in many systems. Second, though it is debatable
(see Chapter 10) whether this is a good thing, it is possible to
sample from non-standard probability distributions in a simulation
model. However, queuing theory models permit only certain
distributions and therefore cannot cope with many types of problem.
Computer simulation then may well be regarded as the last resort.
Despite this, it is surprising how often such an approach is needed.

1.6 SUMMARY
Computer simulation methods allow experimentation on a computer-
based model of some system. The model is built by carefully
describing the ways in which the system changes state and the rules
that govern its dynamic behaviour. Modelling is best planned on an
incremental and parsimonious basis, with the expectation that the
model will need to be enhanced as

REFERENCES 11

EXERCISES

REFERENCES

knowledge about the system develops. Once built, the model is used
for experimentation, either interactive or classical or both.

(1) Suppose that a public authority is considering various policies for

checking whether goods vehicles are overweight as they arrive at
ferry ports. Discuss whether it might be sensible to consider a
simulation approach. (2) In what types of situation would a
simulation approach be unwise? (3) Spreadsheet packages such as
Microsoft Excel™ are widely used on personal computers. Discuss
what type of simulation these packages allow. (4) If you were the
manager of a factory whose production operations were being
simulated by a management scientist, why might you not be
convinced that the simulation model was valid even if the production
rates output from the simulation were the same as those of your
factory? (5) Consider the reasons why simulation approaches often
form part of the process of designing new manufacturing systems.
(6) Computers are becoming easier to use by non-specialists. Should
managers be encouraged to undertake computer simulations
themselves or is there still a place for the specialist?

Bhaskar R., Lee B.S., Levas A., Petrakian R., Tsai F. and Tulskie W.
(1994) Analyzing a re-engineering business processes using
simulation. Proceed- ings of the 1994 Winter Simulation Conference,
December 1994, Lake Bueno Vista, Florida. Burnett D. and LeBaron
T. (2001) Efficiently modeling warehouse systems. In: B.A. Peters,
J.S. Smith, D.J. Medeiros and M.W. Rohrer (eds), Proceed- ings of
the 2001 Winter Simulation Conference, December 2001, Arlington,
VA. Buxton J.N. and Laski J.G. (1962) Control and simulation
language. The Computer Journal, 5, 3. Ceric V. (1990) Simulation
study of an automated guided-vehicle system in a Yugoslav hospital.
Journal of the Operational Research Society, 41(4), 299-310. Davies
M.N. (1994) Back-office process management in the financial
services-a simulation approach using a model generator. Journal of
the Operational Research Society, 45(12), 1363-73. Davies R.,
Roderick P., Brailsford S.C. and Canning C. (2002). The use of
simulation to evaluate screening policies for diabetic retinopathy.
Diabetic Medicine, 19(9), 763-71.

12 THE COMPUTER SIMULATION APPROACH

De Jong C.D. (2001) Simulating test program methods in

semiconductor assembly test factories. In: B.A. Peters, J.S. Smith,
D.J. Medeiros, and M.W. Rohrer (eds), Proceedings of the 2001
Winter Simulation Conference, December 2004, Arlington, VA.
Dennis S., King B., Hind M. and Robinson S.R. (2000) Applications of
business process simulation and lean techniques in British
Telecommuni- cations pIc. In: K. Kang, J.A. Joines, and R.R. Barton
(eds), Proceedings of the 2000 Winter Simulation Conference,
Orlando, FL. Harrell C.R. (1993) Modeling beverage processing using
discrete event simu- lation. Proceedings of the 1993 Winter
Simulation Conference, December 2000, Los Angeles, CA. Heath W.
(1993) Waterfront capacity-planning simulations. Proceedings of the
1993 Winter Simulation Conference, Los Angeles, CA. Hupert N.,
Mushlin A.I. and Callahan M.A. (2002) Modeling the public health
response to bioterrorism: Using discrete event simulation to design
antibiotic distribution centers. Medical Decision Making, 22(Suppl.),
S17-S25. Jacobson S.H., Sewell E.C. and Weniger W.G. (2001) Using
Monte Carlo simulation to assess the value of combination vaccines
for pediatric immu- nization. In: B.A. Peters, J.S. Smith, D.J.
Medeiros, and M.W. Rohrer (eds), Proceedings of the 2001 Winter
Simulation Conference, December 2001, Arlington, VA. Joustra P.E.
and Van Dijk N.M. (2001) Simulation of check-in at airports. In: B.A.
Peters, J.S. Smith, D.J. Medeiros, and M.W. Rohrer (eds),
Proceedings of the 2001 Winter Simulation Conference, December
2001, Arlington, VA. Ladbrook J. and Januszczak A. (2001) Ford's
power train operations- changing the simulation environment. In:
B.A. Peters, J.S. Smith, D.J. Medeiros, and M.W. Rohrer (eds),
Proceedings of the 2001 Winter Simula- tion Conference, December
2001, Arlington, VA. Lee S., Pritchett A. and Goldsman D. (2001)
Hybrid agent-based simulation for analyzing the national airspace
system. In: B.A. Peters, J.S. Smith, D.J. Medeiros, and M.W. Rohrer
(eds), Proceedings of the 2001 Winter Simu- lation Conference,
December 2001, Arlington, VA. Lu R.F. and Sundaram S. (2002)
Manufacturing process modeling of Boeing 747 moving line
concepts. In: J.M. Charnes, E. Yiicesan and C.-H. Chen (eds),
Proceedings of the 2002 Winter Simulation Conference, December
2001, San Diego, CA. McGuire F. (1994) Using simulation to reduce
lengths of stay in emergency departments. Proceedings of the 1994
Winter Simulation Conference, December 1994, Lake Bueno Vista,
Florida. Miser H.J. and Quade E.S. (eds) (1988) Handbook of
Systems Analysis: Craft Issues and Procedural Choices. John Wiley &
Sons, Chichester, UK. Pidd M. (1987) Simulating automated food
plants. Journal of Operational Research Society, 38(8), 683-92. Pidd
M. (1995) The construction of an object-oriented traffic simulator.
Pro- ceedings of the 3rd BURO Working Group on Transportation,
September 1995, Barcelona, Spain.

REFERENCES 13

Pidd M. (2003) Tools for Thinking: Modelling in Management Science

(2nd edition). John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK. Rathi A.K. and
Santiago A.J. (1990) The new NETSIM simulation model. Traffic
Engineering and Control, 31(5), 317. Rivett B.H.P. (1994) The Craft
of Decision Modelling. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK. Robinson
T. (2001) ODIN-An underwater warfare simulation environ- ment. In:
B.A. Peters, J.S. Smith, D.J. Medeiros, and M.W. Rohrer (eds),
Proceedings of the 2001 Winter Simulation Conference, December
2001, Arlington, VA. Salt J. (1991) Tunnel vision. ORIMS Today,
18(1),42-8. Slack N., Chambers S., Harland C. and Johnston R.
(1995) Operations Man- agement. Pitman, London. Thomas L.C.,
Banasik J. and Crook J.N. (2001) Recalibrating scorecards. Journal of
Operational Research Society, 52,981-8. White D. J. (1975) Decision
Methodology. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK. Williams D.L., Finke
D.A., Medeiros D.J. and Traband M. T. (2001) Discrete simulation
development for a proposed shipyard steel processing facility. In:
B.A. Peters, J.S. Smith, D.J. Medeiros, and M.W. Rohrer (eds),
Proceed- ings of the 2001 Winter Simulation Conference, Arlington,
VA. Wright M.B. (1994) Timetabling county cricket fixtures using a
form of tabu search. Journal of the Operational Research Society,
45(7),758-71. Young W., Taylor M.A.P. and Gipps P.G. (1989)
Microcomputers in Traffic Engineering. John Wiley & Sons/Research
Studies Press, Chichester, UK.

A Variety of Modelling Approaches

2.1 GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS

Before producing a dynamic simulation model and thus a computer

program, the analyst must decide on the principal elements of that
model, bearing two things in mind. The first is the nature of the
system being simulated- obviously, the model needs to be a close fit,
a good representation of the system. Needless to say, some
modelling approaches are more suited to certain problems than to
others. The second aspect is the nature of the study being carried
out. That is, what are the objectives of the study, what is the point
of the simulation, what results are expected? Considering both of
these aspects will allow the analyst to decide what level of accuracy
and detail is appropriate for the simulation. There is clearly little
point in producing an extremely detailed simulation if only crude
estimates are required. The practical decisions that need to be made
concern the following, each of which will be considered in this
chapter:

. Time handling. . Stochastic or deterministic durations. . Discrete or

continuous change.
2.2 TIME HANDLING

One advantage of simulation is that the speed at which the

experiment proceeds can be controlled. The essence of a dynamic
simulation is that the state changes of the system are modelled
through time. In management science it is usual to speed up the
passage of time so as to simulate several weeks or months in a few
minutes of computer time. Hence it is important to consider how
time-flow might be handled within the simulation.

2.2.1 Time slicing

Perhaps the simplest way of controlling the flow of time in a

simulation is to move it forward in equal time intervals. This
approach is often described as

16 A VARIETY OF MODELLING APPROACHES

Table 2.1 Job shop order book

Job number
Batch size

Day order expected

1234

200 400 100 200

1 8 14 18

"time slicing" and involves updating and examining the model at

regular intervals. Thus, for a time slice of length dt, the model is
updated at time (t + dt) for changes occurring in the interval (t to (t
+ dt)). One obvious problem with this approach is that some
decision must be taken about the length of the time slice before the
simulation is carried out. For example, the activity levels within a
supertanker terminal may necessitate a time slice of one hour,
whereas for a civil airport the time slice may be more appropriately
set to a half minute or less. Clearly, if the time slice is too large then
the behaviour of the model is much coarser than that of the real
system because it is impossible to simulate some of the state
changes that occur. If, on the other hand, the time slice is too small
then the model is frequently examined unnecessarily (when no state
changes are possible) and this leads to excessively long computer
runs. As a simple example (based on an example in Jones, 1975)*
consider a workshop with just two machines, A and B. Suppose that
the time taken to complete a job on these machines depends on the
size of the job. Thus the job times are:

. Machine A: (batch size/50 + 1) days. . Machine B: (batch size/lOa

+ 3) days.

Suppose too that the workshop only takes on jobs which must be
processed on both machines and that each job must first pass
through machine A as a complete batch and then through machine B
as a complete batch. That is, no batch may be started on either
machine until the previous batch is completed on that machine. If
the workshop expects to receive the four orders shown in Table 2.1.
when will the final batch be complete? The expected job times
(days) are as shown in Table 2.2. Simulating the workshop using a
time slice of one day leads to the times shown in Table 2.3. Thus job
4 is complete at the end of day 32. Following this table through; on
day 1, job 1 arrives and its processing immediately begins on
machine A. Nothing new happens on days 2, 3 or 4 until the end of
day 5 when machine A has finished job 1. Thus on day 6, machine B
starts work on job 1. On day 7 nothing happens. On day 8, job 2
arrives and machine A begins its

* This example is reproduced in revised form with permission from

the Open University from T341 Systems Modelling: Unit 6 Simulation
Modelling. (Q 1975 The Open University Press.

TIME HANDLING 17
Table 2.2 Expected job times

Job number

Machine A

Machine B

1234

5935

5745

Table 2.3 Job shop: time-slicing simulation Jobs queuing Jobs in

progress Jobs queuing Jobs in progress Day For machine A For
machine B Machine A Machine B Day For machine A For machine B
Machine A Machine B 1 17 3 2 2 18 4 3 2 3 19 4 3 2 4 20 3 4 2 5 21
3 4 2 6 22 3 4 2 7 23 3 4 2 8 2 24 4 3 9 2 25 4 3 10 2 26 4 3 11 2
27 4 3 12 2 28 4 13 2 29 4 14 3 2 30 4 15 3 2 31 4 16 3 2 32 4
processing. This is obviously a tedious and inefficient way of
simulating such a simple system, for there is little point in examining
and attempting to update the model each day-on many days,
nothing changes.

2.2.2 Next-event technique

Because many systems include such slack periods of varying length

it is often preferable to use a variable time increment. In this case,
the model is only examined and updated when it is known that a
state change is due. These state changes are usually called events
and, because time is moved from event to event, the approach is
called the next-event technique. Consider again the simple
workshop. Table 2.4 shows the results of a next- event simulation of
this system. Notice that the table is much smaller than that required
for a time-slicing approach. The method focuses on the progress of
each job as it passes through the workshop. The events are:

. A job arrives. . Machine A starts a job.

18 A VARIETY OF MODELLING APPROACHES

Table 2.4 Job-shop: next-event simulation Machine A Machine B Job

No. Arrival date Start Finish S ta rt Finish 1 1 1 5 6 10 2 8 8 16 17 23
3 14 17 19 24 27 4 16 20 24 28 32
. Machine A finishes a job. . Machine B starts a job. . Machine B
finishes a job.

Each of these events may occur a maximum of four times during the
simula- tion, once for each job. In fact, as Table 2.4 shows, some of
these coincide and the model need only be updated on 16 occasions.
By way of contrast, Table 2.3 shows the inevitable 32 updates of a
time-slicing approach. Though the halving of the number of state
changes is only a feature of this example, a next-event model will
usually require fewer state changes than one employing time slicing.

2.2.3 Time slicing or next event?

Thus, a next-event technique has two advantages over a time-slicing

approach. The first is that the time increment automatically adjusts
to periods of high and low activity, thus avoiding wasteful and
unnecessary checking of the state of the model. The second is that it
makes clear when significant events have occurred in the simulation.
On the other hand, the simulation software that drives the
simulation must be more intelligent, since it must manage a diary of
future events. This means that it must hold more information than is
needed for a time-slicing simulation. However, unless the actual
events of a system do occur at regular intervals, a next- event
technique is usually better. Of course, some systems have events
that occur at regular intervals. For example, a superstore may check
its stock levels at the same time each day and replenishment may
similarly arrive at predictable times. In such cases it is quite
adequate to update the model at regular intervals to allow for the
intervening changes. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the next-
event technique is more general since, if the events in a system
occur at regular intervals (once per day, perhaps), the next-event
technique will act as if it were a time-slicing approach. The reverse is
not true.

2.3 STOCHASTIC OR DETERMINISTIC?

A system is deterministic if its behaviour is entirely predictable.

Provided that the system is perfectly understood, then it is possible
to predict precisely what will happen. A cycle of operations on an
automatic machine may be determi-

STOCHASTIC OR DETERMINISTIC? 19

nistic in this sense. Each repeated identical cycle will take the same
length of time unless the conditions influencing the cycle times are
altered. A system is stochastic if its behaviour cannot be entirely
predicted, though some statement may be made about how likely
certain events are to occur. For example, a lecturer may give the
same lecture to several sets of students but the duration of the
lecture may vary from occasion to occasion. Statistical statements
may be made about the duration of the lecture: for example, that it
is normally distributed with a mean of 50 minutes and a standard
deviation of 3 minutes. Thus it is highly likely that the duration of
the lecture will exceed 48 minutes. However, it is impossible to
precisely state how long a par- ticular delivery of the lecture will last
unless the lecturer's behaviour can be completely controlled-and that
of the class too! In some senses, the distinction between stochastic
and deterministic systems is artificial. It is more a statement of the
amount of knowledge about a system or the amount of control over
that system exercised by an observer. However, it is important to
notice that both stochastic and deterministic simulations are
possible.

2.3.1 Deterministic simulation: a time-slicing example

Any deterministic simulation model contains no stochastic elements

and a simple example was the four-job simulation of the workshop
of Section 2.2. As another example, this time one which can be
formulated as a set of differ- ence equations, consider the case of
Big Al and his recruitment problems. After his release from gaol
(jail), Big AI, a well known gangster, decides to rebuild his mob for
more assaults on the banks of Bailrigg County. This time he plans a
large-scale operation and reckons that he would like to have 50
mobsters working for him within six months. He currently has none.
His previous experience in forming a mob suggests that he can
recruit at a weekly rate equal to one quarter of the difference
between his ideal mob size (50) and the number currently in the
mob. His problem is that mobsters are caught by the cops with
depressing frequency. Indeed, Happy Harry, chief of the Bailrigg
County cops, boasts that his men will catch 5% of Big AI's active
mobsters.in each week and they receive gaol sentences of at least
12 months each. Fortunately, 10% of those in gaol escape each
week and rejoin Big AI's mob. Big Al himself has other ways to
satisfy the needs of the local police and does not expect to be
arrested again. How large will his mob size be after 10 weeks? One
approach to Big AI's problem is to use a simple time-sliced
simulation based on a two-part set of difference equations. To do
this requires some variables to be defined.

Variables
Suppose that any 2-week interval can be represented as starting at
time t - 1 (the first weekend), with an intervening weekend at time t
and a final weekend at time t + 1. Variables of two types may now
be defined.

20 A VARIETY OF MODELLING APPROACHES

(1) Aggregated values at definite time points Consider the time point
t Mob size = MS t N umber in gaol = NG t (2) Variables which
represent rates which are constant over an interval Consider the
interval t - 1 to t

AI's recruitment rate = RECt-l,t The rate at which gangsters are

arrested = ARRt-l,t The rate at which gangsters escape from gaol =
ESCt-l,t The target mob size is a constant, TARGET

Hence, the following equations can be formulated:

(1) Aggregated values at time t MS t = MS t - l + (RECt-l,t - ARRt-l,t)

+ ESCt-l,t NG t = NG t - l + (ARRt-l,t - ESCt-l,t) That is, the value of
MS at time t is the value of MS at time t - 1, plus the changes that
occur over the interval t - 1 to t. The latter is number of recruits,
plus the number of escapees, minus the number of mobsters
arrested over that interval.
(2) Constant rates over the next week RECt,t+l = (TARGET - MS t
)/4 ARRt,t+l = MS t *0.05 ESCt,t+l = NGd10

The system may now be simulated using a simple spreadsheet in

which the columns represent the different variables and the rows
represent the time points (weekends). The four constants, TARGET
and the three numerical parameters, can be placed as values on the
spreadsheet to make experimenta- tion rather easier. The number in
gaol and the mob size need to be specified for time point 0 (just
before the start of week 1) and then the normal spreadsheet-linked
computations can be employed. To check the computations by hand,
do the following. Starting with time point t = 0:

(1) Write down the values of the mob size (MS) and number in gaol
(NG). (2) Write down the rates (recruitment, arrest, escape) over
the next interval.

Move time to the next point (t = 1) and repeat; continue with t =

2,3, . . . ,10. The results of the simulation for a 10-week period are
shown in Table 2.5 and in Figure 2.1. Table 2.5 is slightly deceptive,
for it hides the fact that the rates are actually computed over
intervals of length dt, which is 1 week in this case, rather than at the
time points 0, 1, 2, etc. Strictly speaking, these rate values should
be printed in alternate lines, between the other values. It is

STOCHASTIC OR DETERMINISTIC? 21
Table 2.5 Big AI's recruitment problem Week Recru it rate Arrest rate
Escape rate No. in gaol Mob size 0 0.00 0.00 1 12.50 0.00 0.00 0.00
12.50 2 9.38 0.63 0.00 0.63 21.25 3 7.19 1.06 0.06 1.63 27.44 4
5.64 1.37 0.16 2.83 31.87 5 4.53 1.59 0.28 4.14 35.09 6 3.73 1.75
0.41 5.48 37.48 7 3.13 1.87 0.55 6.81 39.28 8 2.68 1.96 0.68 8.09
40.68 9 2.33 2.03 0.81 9.32 41 .78 10 2.05 2.09 0.93 10.48 42.68
50 40 (]) N "en 30 .D 0

20 10 0 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Week Figure 2.1 Big AI's mob size

clear that Big Al does not reach his target of 50 mobsters within ten
weeks. Indeed, he may have trouble over a much longer period due
to the fact that the recruitment rate is a function of the gap between
the target and actual mob sizes. To get to 50 he may need to find
other incentives. There is one obvious problem about this model. It
uses real values but even gangsters prefer to be treated as integers.

2.3.2 Stochastic simulation

Many systems behave stochastically and must therefore be

simulated by a model with stochastic elements. This means that
probability distributions are used in such stochastic simulation
models. As the simulation proceeds, samples are taken from these
distributions so as to mimic the stochastic behaviour. As an example,
consider the following replacement problem. A multi-user computer
system includes two disk units which, being mech- anical. are prone
to failure. If a disk unit fails in service, users lose their files

22 A VARIETY OF MODELLING APPROACHES

Table 2.6 Probability of disk unit failure

Days since repair or maintenance

Probability of failure

1 2 3 4 5 6 >6

0.05 0.15 0.20 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00

(and their tempers) which need to be restored. Restoration is

achieved by copying on to the disk back-up copies of the files held
on magnetic tapes. This restoration is inconvenient and so a new
operating policy is being considered. At the moment, the disk units
are repaired and restored as and when they fail. The proposal is to
introduce a joint repair system. Table 2.6 shows the probability of a
disk unit failing in the days following its last repair. That is, 5% of
the units are expected to fail 1 day after repair or maintenance, 15%
after 2 days, etc. Under the current repair policy, it costs $50 per
disk to repair and restore a failed unit. The joint repair system would
operate as follows. When either unit fails, the failed unit is repaired
and restored at a cost of $50 per unit. If operational. the other unit
will be cleaned at a cost of $25. Cleaning a disk places it in a state
equivalent to having been just repaired and restored. Is the new
joint repair system cost effective? This question can be answered by
a simple stochastic simulation which involves random sampling from
the failure distribution of the disks given earlier. Details of sampling
methods are given in Chapter 10, but for present purposes a simple
method can be used. Figure 2.2 shows a histogram of the disk
failure distribution. In Figure 2.3, the data have been rearranged to
show the cumulative probability of the various lives. For example,
the probability of a disk lasting up to and including 3 days is 0.40

0.30 0.25 g 0.20 :3 co .D 0.15 0 C: 0.10 0.05

0.00

Figure 2.2

3 4 life (days) Histogram of failure probabilities

STOCHASTIC OR DETERMINISTIC? 23

1.0

g 0.8 :3 co .Q e 0.6 c.. Q) >

0.4 "S E :J 0.2 ()

0.0

Figure 2.3

3 4 Life (days) Histogram of cumulative failure probabilities

(0.05 + 0.15 + 0.20). Using the cumulative form of Figure 2.3 and
random number tables, random samples can be taken from the life
distribution by asso- ciating a life (in days) with each random
number. An extract from a random number table is shown in Table
2.7, the values range from 00 to 99, and any number in that range
has an equal probability of appearing at any position in the table. If
these random numbers are divided by 100, so that their range is
0.00 to 0.99, then Figure 2.3 may be used to generate random
samples as follows. The first random number in the table is 27 (Le.,
0.27); if this is marked on the vertical axis of Figure 2.3, then the
corresponding point on the horizontal axis is 3 days. That is, 3 days
is the life associated with the random number 0.27. In general. each
life may be asso- ciated with a range of random numbers as shown
in Table 2.8. Table 2.9 shows a 50-day simulation of the two policies.
In the case of the separate replacement policy, replacements of each
of the two units have been

Table 2.7 Some random numbers 27 62 36 30 57 78 22 02 89 22 04

97 43 30 45 12 03 87 16 50 92 26 00 82 58 10 78 44 55 05 21 50
49 83 49 39 25 81 03 99 77 71 43 06 90 09 04 97 07 64 40 39 69
42 63 80 07 85 65 70 60 57 42 97 29 92 84 54 66 91 34 10 78 81
97 99 08 19 15 63 35 37 13 56 88 09 36 40 07 55 04 24 69 52 44
14 61 59 31 50 24 26 29 31 57 17 38 44 03 29 26 63 00 44 64 09
93 15 52 35 91 37 65 32 84 37 80 94 48 46 23 52 10 77 27 40 34
13 73 53 55 89 99 78 50 11 43 43 54 16

24 A VARIETY OF MODELLING APPROACHES

Table 2.8 Look-up table linking random numbers and disk life
Life (days) Associated random numbers

1 0.00-0.04 2 0.05-0.19 3 0.20-0.39 4 0.40-0.69 5 0.70-0.89 6 0.90-

0.99

Table 2.9 Next-event simulation of the disk repair policies Separate

repair Joint repair Unit A Unit B Random number Life Time of failure
Random number Life Time of failure Time of failure 1 0.27 3 3 0.24
3 3 3 2 0.62 4 7 0.26 3 6 6 3 0.36 3 10 0.29 3 9 9 4 0.30 3 13 0.31
3 12 12 5 0.57 4 17 0.57 4 16 16 6 0.04 1 18 0.26 3 19 17 7 0.97 6
24 0.63 4 23 21 8 0.43 4 28 0.00 1 24 22 9 0.30 3 31 0.44 4 28 25
10 0.45 4 35 0.64 4 32 29 11 0.92 6 41 0.91 6 38 35 12 0.26 3 44
0.37 3 41 38 13 0.00 1 45 0.65 4 45 39 14 0.82 5 50 0.32 3 48 42
15 0.58 4 0.84 5 53 46 16 0.21 3 0.23 3 49 17 0.50 4 0.52 4 53 18
0.49 4 0.10 2 19 0.83 5 0.77 5 20 0.49 4 0.27 3

simulated until the failure time (the cumulative life) of each is

greater than or equal to 50 days. For this policy, unit A needed 14
repairs and restores; unit B needed 15. Hence, 29 units were used at
a cost of $50 per unit, giving a total cost of $1450 over 50 days.
Exactly the same random numbers are used to simulate the second
policy, which is also shown in Table 2.9. In this case, the units are
considered in

DISCRETE OR CONTINUOUS CHANGE? 25

pairs. Hence, starting at time zero, the first A unit would last for 3
days if allowed to do so, as would the first B unit. In this case,
therefore the first re- placement takes place after 3 days. The
second pair would last 4 days (in the case of A) and 3 days (in the
case of B). Hence the second replacement will take place 3 days
after the first (Le., after 6 days). The simulation continues in this
way until the replacement time (the joint cumulative life) is at or
greater than 50 days. This shows that there were 17 such joint
repairs in the period and that, of these 17, 9 involved both units in
repair and restore (Le., they both failed at the same time-
coincidences). The other 8 of the 17 involved one unit in a repair
and restore, whilst the other need only be cleaned. Hence, there
were 26 repairs and restores at $50 per unit and 8 clean-ups at $25
per unit. Giving a total cost of $1500. Thus on the basis of a single
simulation, the new policy costs $50 more over a 50-day period.
However, it would be wrong to assume that a separate repair policy
is therefore more cost effective. If a different set of random numbers
were used, the result could have been different for both policies and
the new policy might appear cheaper. Chapter 4 returns again to this
issue in its discussion of static Monte Carlo simulations. In stochastic
simulations, it is important to realize that the results are dependent
on the samples taken. Hence it is usual to make several simulation
runs each with a distinct sampling pattern before drawing any
conclusions. Chapter 11 gives details. The sampling methods
employed in stochastic simu- lations are well developed and
documented. Commonly used methods are given in Chapter 10 and
most simulation software systems have appropriate subroutines or
procedures ready for use. Thus distribution sampling should not be a
problem in model building. More likely, controlling the sequence of
events is the major problem in model building. The interaction of the
entities is responsible for the sequence of events, and in the above
example these are trivial. But for complex systems a sensible
structure is needed. Various common approaches are described in
Chapters 5 and 6.
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adkibëre at ou ne avec le Subj. [• prendre 3. que... ■■ ou que...
ne... pas...]. Cic. Cela, qaantam me dtliijis tantam adidbe in te
diliyentUe. Cic.)\ sedulitas, atis, f. Cic. etc. (ex. : oCficiosa. //or. voy
conscience, ZLLE, e.iiprbsseme.ntJ ; tutela, se (- conservation, soin
•), f. Cic. etc. (voy. entretien) ; vigilantia, as, f. Ter. Cic. (Voy.
VICILA.NCE). Prendre, avoir — (de), curare, tr. Cic. etc. (s'opp. à
neijligire, ex. : sic enim decet, te mea cwàre, taa me. Cic. negotia
aliéna. Cic. avec l'Ace, et le Gér. in Sicilià framentam emendam et ad
urbem mittendum curare. Cic. ponteni in Arare faciendam curàrc.
Cœa. avec ut et le Subj. ex coriis atres uti fièrent caravit [• il eut
soin de faire confectionner des outres en cuir •]. Sali, pollicitas sam
caraturum me Druti caasû, ut ei Salaminii pecuniam solveriint. Cic.
curare et perficëre [et le Subj.]. Cic. cura, ut valeas [• prenez soin de
votre santé ■]. Cic. cura igitur nihil aliud, ntsi ut vaieas ; cetera ego
carabo. Cic. cura et effice, ut ab omnibus et laudemar et amemur.
Cic. senatus nobis, qui prc consulibus sumus, negotium dederat ut
curaremus, ne quid res pablica detrimenti caperet. Cic. curavi, ne
quis metueret. Cic. voy. [s'] OCCUPER [de], [prendre à] CŒUR,
veiller); procurâre, tr. Cic. etc. (ex. : alicujas negotia. Cic. rationes
negotiaque Dionysii. Cic.) ; consulère, intr. Cic. etc. (ex. : rniseris
civibas. Sali. sibi. Cic. Cœs. c. militibiia. Liv. alicii/us commodis et
utilitati et saluti. Cic. fortunis alicujus. Liv. foi-ianis sais. Cic. alicui
optimê. Cic); prospicëre, intr. et tr. Cic. etc. (ex ; liberis suis. Nep.
souvent prospicëre et consalëre ou consulère et prospicëre. Cic. ;
traas. : prospicëre (erramenta.Cic. p.com,meatus. Liv. voy. p.iurvoir ;
[s'] INQUIÉTER [de]) ; servire, intr. Cic. etc. (ex. : serxire alicujas
rationibas. Cic. \oy. [se] vouer [se] CONSACRER [à]); providére ('
pourvoir à, veiller à "), tr. et intr. Cic. etc (ex. : rem frumentariam.
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Cic. etc. (ex. : adliihêre magnam curam in aliquâ re. Cic. Nep. de
sacerdotio tuo qaantam curam adhihuerim, cognosce ex iis litteris,
qaas... Cic.agére curam verboram [• avoir soin du style ■]. Quint.
[VIII, pr. 18J. medici cura esse débet, ut [et le Subj.]. Cels. una erat
cura, ne inultus occideret [• de ne pas succomber sans vengeance-]
. Curt. quod si hominibut bonarum reram tanta cura esset, quanto
studio aliéna pétant. Sali, tibi erit eidem, cui salas mea fuit, etiam
diijnitas cura". Cœsar polltcitus est sibi eam rem curœ fataram. Cœs.
rati se diis immortalibas curœ esse [• que les dieux prenaient s.
d'eux ■>]. Sali, velim tibi curœ sit, ut aliquid istim bestiarum
habeamus. Cœl. ap. Cic. in primis tibi curœ sit, ne mihi tempas
prorogetur. Cic. plus exiyëre laboris et curœ. Quint, incumhëre omni
cogitatione curâque in rem publicam. Cic. ponëre omnem curam in
sideram cognitione. Cic. omnis mihi cura et opéra posita est in
hominum pericalis defendendis. Cic. remittëre curam diligentiamqae.
Cœs. omnem curam belli remittëre. Liv. omnes curas referre ad
aliquemet ineo consumëre.Cic. sastinêre maximam curam bflli [<'
avoir à supporter tous les s. de la guerre ■]. Cic. omnis cura mea
solet m hoc versari semper, si possim, nt boni efficiam aliquid in
dicendo. Cic. on trouve souvent : tuiela' atque cura. Cic. opéra
curaque. Cic. cura atque opéra. Cic. studium caraque. Cic. cura et
cogitatio. Cic. cogitatio curaque. Cic. voy. COEUR, souci); di'ij^entia,
se, f. Cic. etc. (ex. : adhibêre comjnoditatis dignitatisqae diligentiam.
Cic. omnem diligentiam adhibère a3 se conservandum. Cic. adhibère
ad considerandas res et tempas et diligentiam. Cic. diligentiam
conferre in valetudinem suam. Cic); accuratio, onis, f. Cic. (ex. : in
inveniendis componendisqae rébus mira accuratio. Cic). Fait avec — ,
accuratus, a, um, p. adj. Cic. etc. (Voy. soigner). Avec ^, accuraié,
adv. Cic. etc. (ex. : aliquid studiosê accuratëqae facére. Cic. accuraté
et diligenter ou accuraté et exquisitê disputâre. Cic. accaratê
perscribëre. Cic); curiosé, adv. Cic. etc. (ex. : aliquem vesiimentis
curiosé involvëre. SOI 1685 Ccli. c. cavire de aliqoA re. Suet.
cariosius scriptœ litterœ. Plin. j. conquirère ista cariosius. Cic.) ;
diligenter, adv. Cic. etc. (s'opp. a negligcnter, ex. : eos diligentissimë
conservàre. Cœs.) ; exquisitê (■ au prix de recherches d'où avec
soin •), adv. Cic, etc. (ex.: de eo crimine accuraté et exquisitê
disputâre. Cic. exquisitius a phitosophiscolligi. Cic); perquisitè, adv.
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conscribëre. Cic. [inv. I, 77]). Sans —, negligenier, adv. Cic. etc. (ex.
: n. scribëre adversaria. Cic. negligentia) aiservâre aliquid. Cic). |{
(Spéc.) Service qu'on est attentif à rendre. Cura, œ, f. Cjc. etc. (ex.:
cura mulieram [« que prennent las femmes •].PIiœd. c. corporis.
Quint, formas. Sen. capillorum. Suet. cura cultusqae f'eminarum. Liv.
cura deoram gr. 6£pa7te;a 6eûv , les soins rendus aux dieux]. Liv.
[VI,Iil, 9]. .Just. [.XLI, 3, 6]. suum sororisqae àlios in eâdem cura
habëre. Liv.); cultus, lis, m. Liv. Sen. (ex. : officium et cultam alicui
tribuêre U être aux petits s. pour qqn »]. Liv. c. corporam nimius.
Sen. omne studium ad curiosiorem sui cultam conferre. Val.-Mctx.);
curatio, onis, f. Cic. etc. (ex. : c. corporis ou corporam. Cels. Liv.
omnis cultus et curatio corporis erit eadem adhibenda deo, qux
adhibetur homini. Cic. c. medici [• donnés par un médecin •]. Cic.
adm.ovêre curationem ad aliquem. Cic. exspirûre inter primam
curationem. Liv.). Donner ses — à qqn, diligenter carâre aliquem.
Cic. Recevoir les — de qqn, diligentissimë ab aliquo curari. Cic.
Confier qqn aux — de qqn, aliquem alicui curandum tradëre. Cic.
Etre aux petits — pour qqn, aliquem observâre ou observàre et
colëre. Cic. soir (lat. «eram, heure avancée), s. m. La fin du jour.
Vesper, eris, m. et vesper, péri, m. Sali. Liv. (ex, : diei ou j-im diei
vesper erat. Sali, prima vesperi [s.-e./»orâ].Ca»s. [B. C. I, 20, 11.
ante vesperum, ad vesperum. Cicsab vesperum. Cœs. primo
vespere. Cœs. abl. adv. vespere et vesperi. Cic. cf. Iieri vesperi [■
hier soir •]. Cic. reddidit vespere [• le soir, au soir ■>]. Cic). Du — ,
qui se fait ou qui agit le — , vespertinus, a, um, adj. Cic etc. (ex.:
v.cibus. Varr.v. frigos. Cels. v. lucabratio. Col. v. litterœ [• reçues le
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Le f . de la vie. i it." occidenê. Cic. Tusc. I, J.5, 109;. soirée, ». f. La
fin du jour (considérée quant à l'emploi qu'on en fait). Veaper (sen.
xiespfrisy dat. vespero, ace. vesperam, abl. veipere et abl. adv.
vesperi), m. Cic. (cf. prima vesperi [s.-e. /lOnS]. Caps. tamve3peri['
si tard dans las.»]. Ter.]. Tempora lespertinu. Cic. (cf. vespertinis
temporibas [• dans la e. •]. Cic. horœ vetpertinx. Plin.). Vespeni, se,
f. Cic. (cf. si m«dio no.r est, tive prima vespera. Plaat.y Voy. SOIR.
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numéral invariable. || Adjeclil' cardinal. Six fois dix. Sexaginta, adj.
num. indécl. Cic. (cf. major sexaginta annis. Liv.). chacun, — par —
,sexageni, K, a, adj. num di^irib. Cic. Qui a — ans, voy.
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| dix. Sexagenarius numéros. A. soixantième, adj. .Vdjectif nuuiéi-al
ordinal. .Sf.r.iye.siniu3, rt, um, adj. Cic. Pour la — fois, | se-
rajesimum. A. lA — partie, et subst . le —, sexagesima pars, et,
simpl. sexagesima (s.e. pars'^, !r, t. Cic. 1. sol. Voy. sof. 2. sol, s. 'm.
Etendue sur laquelle reposent les corps à la surface de la terre,
Soluin terrai. Lixcr. ou simpl. solum, t, n. Cic. (cf. in solam cadére.
Liv. raire ad solam. Cart. solo dejicére. Tac.). Humus, i, m. Cic. (cf.
bami [• sur le s. •]. Cic.). (Opposé à mer, ciel. etc.). Terra, x, f. Cic.
— uni, area, œ, f. //or. (cf. campi area. Ov.). Etre au niveau du — ,
voy. BAS. Constructions situées sur un — (dont on n'a que l'usufruit),
superficies, ei, f. Cic. Jet. Le sol de la patrie, voy. PATRIE. — natal,
voy. natal. ^ (Spéc.) Terrain considéré par rapport à la culture.
Solam terrx. Virg. ou simpl. soium, i. n. Cic. Col. {cl. solam Isetam.
Col. pingae. Plin.). Tellas, aris, f. //or. Voy. terrain, TERRE. Qui se
rapporte au — , glebalis, e, adj. Jet. 8olacier,v. tr. (Arch.) Consoler,
récréer. Vov. ce? mots. solaire, adj. Qui a rapport au soleil. Solaris, e,
adj. Sen. Solarius, a, am, adj. Plin. (cf. solarium horologium. Plin.).
Solstitialis,e, adj./,ii'.(cf. «oi«t. orbi» [■ révolution s. •]. Liv.).
Traduire aussi par le génit. «oJis (cf. radius solis. Plin. ad metam
eamdem solis [- au commencement de Tannées. •]. Liv.). Année — ,
annus gai solstitiali circumagitur orbe. Liv. Cadran — , solarium, ii, n.
Cic. Varr. AisuiHe du cadran — , gnomon, onis, m. Vitr. De cadran —
, gnomonicus, a, um, adj. Vitr. Art d.; construire des cadrans — ,
gnamonice,es, f. Vitr. Plin. Ligiu,' tirée par le centre du cadran — ,
horizon, ontis {Ace. onla), m. Vitr. Fleur —, voy. héliotrope. Il (Fig.)
Visage — (dont la physionomie est ouverte, riante), voy. radieux,
rayonnant. Bolandre, s. f. Crevasse au jarret d'un cheval. Voy.
maLASfiUE. Bolanéea, s. f. pi. et solaDucn, s. m. Genre de planter.
.'iolanam, i, n. Plin. Solanum taberosum. Linné. soldat, s. rn. Celui
qui sert dans une armée, à la solde d'un prince, d'un gouvernement.
SOL Miles, iiis. m. Cic. etc. {ex.: milUes .■intoniani. Cvs. milites
Sull'ini. Sali. Romani. Sali. aa.\-ili(U-ii [opp. i kj/ionarii]. Liv. .isin.
Poil. ap. Cic. milites gregarii [• les simples s.-]. Cic. milites maritimi
[• do marine "]. Plaat. mites mercennartiu. Liv. milite» mercennarii.
Nep. milites novi. Sali. Liv. veteres. Sali, segnes atqae inutiles rei
publica: milites. Liv. milites veterani. Cws. vêtus miles (opp. à tiro].
Liv. milites volantarii. Liv.). Simple — et (absol.) — (par opp. à
officier), gregarius miles ou simpl. miles. Liv. i^XXII, lli, 15). — de
fortune, miles ab in^mo militise loco ad summos konores perductus.
Sen. — de marine, miles naaticus ou classicus. Liv. au plur. classiarii.
Nep. De —, zaïlitaris, e, adj. Cic. etc. (ex. : m. mos. Liv. ornatus. Cic.
licentia. Cic). En —, militariter , adv. Liv. Tac. (ex.: m. loqai Tac). \\
(Par ext.) Un soldat, c.-à-d. un guerrier versé dans la science
militaire, homo mililaris. Cic. Liv. vir militaris. Cic. Liv. \\ (Fig ) Celui
qui alTi'onte le danger pour une cause. Miles, itis, 111. Eccl.
soldatesque, adj. ets.f.l|(,.\rch.) .4dj. Qui sent le soldat. il/i7itaris,e,
adj. Cic. etc. {c(. militaris licentia. Cic. m. facetise. Tac). Traduire
aussi par le génit. militise ou militum. ^{Ed mauvaise part.) -S. f.
Troupe de soldats. Valgus mi(i(iim. Cic. et abs. vuli/us. Nep. (Aie. 8,
2). Turba militum. Cart. Milites, am, m. pi. Cic. 1. solde (lat.
solidam), s. f. Paie des soldats. Stipendium, ii, n. Cic (cf. persolvûre
stipendium militibas. Cic. militem stipendiis expungëre (- priver un
soldat de sas. •]./)i3.)..i£'s militare. Cato./Es militum. Plin. ou simpl.
ses, aeris, n. Liv. (cf. equitl certas numerus !ei'is assignalas est. Liv.
xre dirai [• être privé de sa s. •]. Karr. Plin. au pi. sera, sérum, a. Liv.
cf. sera militibus constituëre, dâre. Liv.). — d'un officier, salarium, li,
n. Plin. Payer sa — au soldat, solvëre militem. Plaat. 11 paye la —,
dinumerat, absolt. Cic. Prendre à sa , mercede ou prelio conducére.
Liv. mercede arcessér{Germanos). Cxs. Prendre uni; armée à sa — ,
alére exercitam . Cic. ou milites. Cic Etre à la (de qqn),
mercennarium esse alicujus. Nep. mercede mililàre apwl ahrjuem.
Liv. stipendiàri, dép. inlr. Plin.{e!. stip. régi. Plin.). Qui est à la — de
qqn, siipendiarius, a, am, adj. ,4uct. b. A(r. Liv. mercede conductus.
Cart. conducticius, a, um, adj. Nep. Voy.
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SOL MERCENAIRE. Recevoir une — , mcrêre, tr. et merèri,

dép. tr. Ail/, (cf. mer. triplex. [' recevoir tripla s. •!. Liv.). Celui qui
paye la—, iihripcns, endis, m. l'Un. En mauvaise pari. Etre à la — de
qqn, voy. soudoyer, STIPENDUCn. 2. solde, s. m. (Arch.) Balance
d'un compte arnMé. Voy. da1.A.NCE, oïLAN. ^ (!'. ext.) te qui reste à
payer sur un compco. Solatio, ont», f. Cic. Reli(jaa pecunia. Cic. (cf.
reliqaam pecuniain solvére. Cic). Reliqaa. oram, n. ni. Cic. (cf. rcliqaa
accipëre. Lie). Voy. reliquat. Il (P. ext.) Reste de marchandises
vendues au rabais. Heliqiise i.^rcet. A. I. solder, v. tr. Entretenir à
son service moyennant une solde, Voy. 1. solde. 9. solder, v. tr.
(Arch.) Arr.Hor, clore un compte par la balance des profits et pertes.
Voy. compte, bilan, p. ext. — un compte pecaniam reliqaam solvère.
Cic. 1 P. anal. — une marchandise (la vendre au rabais), voy.
RABAIS. sole, 9. f. Dessous du sabot de certains animaux. Solea, ôb,
1'. Col. Inferior pars aiguise. Col. 1 Pièce de bois pour soutenir des
étais. Voy. solin, solive. ^ Poisson de mer plat. Solea, a?, f. Ov. Plin.
Lingalaca, se, f. Varr. Citkaras, i, m. Plin. soléaire, adj. (Anat.) Qui
vient aboutir au pied. Muscle — , surse nervas. A. solécisme, s. ra.
Faute contre les règles de la syntaxe d'une langue. Vitiam sermonis
(ou orationis) ou simpl. l'itiam, ii, n. Cic. Error, oris, m. Qaint.
Solœcismiis, i, m. Corni(. Qumi. Il (Fig.) Faute contre qq. règle
établie. Error, oris, m. Cic. Errutam, i, n. Cic. Voy. FAUTE. soleil (lat.
pop. solicalas), s. m. Astre lumineux, centre du système planétaire
dont la terre fait partie. SoL solis, m. Cic. etc. (ex. : soi mihi
excidisse e mando videtar. Cic. solis radii. Cic. soiis carsas . Cic. solis
circvtitas ou circamvectio. Cic. solis ortus. Virj. sol oriens. Cic. sol
cum est e.vortas. Cic. simili cam sole [- dès le lever du s. •]. Cic.
sole orto. llor. sol est hnmilis. Plin. incalescente sole [• comme il
faisait grand s. •]. Liv. sol occidcns ou prxcipitans. Cic. sole
occidente. Cic. cam occasa solis [• au coucher du s. •]. Cic. sol se
inclinât [• baisse ■>]. Liv. in sole. Cic. Col. in aperto sole. Plin. in
solem profevre. Plin. in sole ambalâre. Cic. in sole apricari. Varr. solis
calor ou ardor. Plin. solem accipëre. Plin. j. sole uti. Cic. soli
expotitani ou obvium esse. Plin. j. SOL 'solem fenestris recipëre. Plin.
j. cuhicalum plurimo sole perlunditur. Plin. j. cam sole experr/isci.
Cic. nanc quidcm paalulam a sole [• ôte-toi do mon soleil .]. Cic.
[Tusc. V, 9;!]. intérim velirn a sole non obstes. Val.-Max. TIV, 3, ext.
U]. au plur. duos soles visas. Liv. prov . nondum omniam dierum, sol
occidit. Liv. [.\X.\IV, 27, 91. etiamsceleratissoloritur.Scn.). Exposé au
— , apricus, a, um, udj. Cic. etc. (ex. : iocus, hortax. Cic.aprici
colles. Liv.). Se chauffer au — , apricari, dép. intr. Cic. Action de se
chauffer au — , apricatio, onis, f. Cic. (Att. VII, 1 1; scn. 57). Coi.
(VIII, 8, h). Coup de — , solis ictus. Cels. sideratio, onis, f. Scrib. 1
(Par ext.) Poét. Jour. Voy. ce mot. Il Année. Voy. ce mot. || Fig. Ce
qui brille comme le soleil. Sol. solis, m. Cic. etc. lex.: P. Africanas sol
alter. Cic. [N. D. II, li]. solem Asise Brutam appellat. Hor. [sat. I, 7,
2ii]). ^ (Par anal.) Sorte de plante. Voy. HELIANTHE. solen, s. m.
Coquille bivalve dite vulgairement manche de couteau. Solen, enis,
m. Plin. solennel, elle, adj. Célébré chaque année par des
cérémonies publiques. Sollcmnis, e, adj. Cic. (cf. s. ludi.
Cic.s.pompœ. Virg.). Festas, a, am, adj. Cic. (cf. festas dies. Cic).
Celeber, bris, bre, adj. Cic. (cf. celeberrima populi Romani
gratulatio.Cic). Celebratas, a,um, p. adj. Lir. (cf. su/)p.'ica
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1688 SOL par une rosponsibilité com- 1 mune. Mutiià JiJiî

o'.iiij.itas. \ •olidairement , sdv. U'uno manière solidaire. Ita ut mataà
fde obligeriâ ou jbstriiigarit.A. Voy. aussi obuoatoireHKsrr. S'engas^r
— , spondire, intr. Cic. solidarité, 5. f. Caractère d'une cho^. d'une
personne solidaire. Voy. RESPONSABlUTé. solide, adj. Composé de
molécules agrégée» entre elle» d'une m&nière consistante, SoliduSt
a, Offl, adj. Cic. etc. (ex. ; s. corpas. Lucr. Boet. soUdas .ic (ortis
cibus. Lact. subst. n. pi. solida [- les solides ■]. Cic. par eit.soliaisima
terra.Oi/.soUdtim nihil [est], qaod terrx sit e.rCic. funiv. i, 11], subst.
pers iolidam. Cic. in solido Sen.). D (Spéc* Qui occupe une portion
do 1 étendue sous les irois dimensions. SolidttS, a, um, adj. Cic. etc.
(ex. : (igararam f/enera aant duo, planam et tolidam. Gell.]. 1
Capable par sa consistance da résister à ce qui tend à l'ébranler, à
l'altérer. Solidus. a, ma, adj. Virg. Ov. Sen. rh. Sen. (ex. : solidam
corpus. Sen. rh. navis ad ferendum incurfum maris aotida. Sen. [ep.
76, 13]); ûrmus, a, um, adj. Cic. etc. (ex. : ramas. Cses. ut area
(irma templis ac porticibas suatinendis esset. Liv. fig. f. equitaius et
peditatas. Cic. copue fii-mœ. Nep. copis et numéro et génère et
pdelitate (irmissimx. Cic. prma prxsidia. Cses. [. exercitas. Cœs. (.
candidatus. Cic); stabilis, e, adj. Cic. etc. (ex. : opp. à instabilis. Liv.
tt. via. Cic.); TObxistas, a, um, adj. Varr. Liv. (ex. : r. materia. Varr. r.
stipites. Liv. fores r. Hor.); ûaus, a, um. adj. Cic. Liv. Tac. (ex. : fida
inter eos amicitia. Sep. familiaritates ftdx amantium nos amicorum.
Cic. (idissimam esse principum castodiam innocentuim. Plin. j.
Romanis pax pda cum Porsenna (ait. Liv. nec abi consisteret, nec
qaod fidum rcspiceret luibens. Liv.). Voy. bésisTA.NT, LSÉBRA-
NLABLE. |j (rig.) Qui a des qualités durables. Solidus, a, um, adj. Cic.
etc. fex.: ». eloqaentia. Quint. luavUas. Cic. libertas. Liv. res. Cic.
laas. Cic. atilitas. Cic. nihil quod tolidam tenêre possis. Cic.); ûrmus,
a, am, adj. Cic. etc. (ex. : spet. Cic. amicilia. Cart. vitx sine meta
degendx prsusidia firmissinfui.Cic. ut ex mfilelissimit [sociis]
firmitsimot redderem. Cic. argur mentam (irmam ad probandam. Cic.
(irmusac stabilis. Nep.opinio prmior.Cic.); stabilis, e, adj. Cic. etc.
(s'opp. à mohilis, incertas, ex — ^ '-"' ^"- --' st. arnicas. Cic. aniSOL
mas |opp. à mobi/it]. Cic. stabile et (ixum bonum. Cic. st. et
constans. Cic. opinio firma et stabilis. Cic. gloria stabilis. Cic. subst.
stahilia [meliora] incertis. Cic. [top. 70]); certus,H, um, adj. Cic. etc.
(oi. : neqae incerta pro certis captarem. Sali, iadiciam certam. Cic.);
conshos, p. adj. Cic. etc. (s'opp. à mobilis, varias, amena, ex. : sant
igitar Jirmi et stabiles et constantes eligendi[amioi].Cic.); ûdelis, e,
adj. Cic. etc. (ex. : (. arnicas. Cic. f. amicitia. Cic. socii (ideliores.
Cic.) ; ûdus, a, um, adj. Cic. etc. (ex. : e.r, U]. aolitaria et vulat
umhratica vita. Qaint. [I, 2, 18]. natara aolitarium nihil amat. Cic.
[am. 88]) ; solus, a, um, adj. Cic. etc. (ex. : a. locaa. Nep. sola loca.
Cic.) ; desertua, a, um. p. adj. C'ic. etc. (s'opp. à celeber, (requcns,
ex. : a. locus. Cic. d. regio. Cic. d. loca. Cœi. omnia diaceaaa meo
deaerta. Cic.) ; secretus, a, um, p. adj. Sen. //or. 7'ac. (ex. : tecreta
petére loca. Uor.). 1 S. m. Celui qui vit seul ou presque oeul. Voy.
KRMiTE.JI Diamant qui est montéseul. Smgalaris maryaiita. A
 SOL Il Vieux saiiijliei- sorti de la compatjnie. Aper so/iinyus.
A. BOlitairement , adv. U'unu maiiiiiro solitaire. y«c;-e
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1090 SOM adj. Cic. (cf. csKu nox. Cic). i Temp> — ,

nw/uViim, i\ n. Plin. (cf. nubiio [» par uu temp? «. .1. Sen. P/in.\
Etre —, nabilûre, intr. Plin. Rendre — , voy. ASSOMBRIR- ii En pari,
de la couleur. Obscuru». a, om, adj. Plin. Ftisctu, a, uni, adj. Cic. (cf.
futca cornLv. lie), yiger, gra, grum, adj. Plin. P dtas, a, um, adj. Co..
,cf. foilas color lame. Col.). .VafciVuî, a, am, adj. Plin. ^cf.
nubi/oaco/or. Piin.). >lu«(c/•os, a, am, adj. Plin. [cf.aust. color.
Plin.). \ov. foncé, noir. Couleur — , pulligo, ginis, f. Plin. austeritoê,
atis, f. Plin. Bleu — , ferrago, inis, f. Virg. Plin. H (P. anal.) En pari, de
la pensée. Obscunis,a, um.adj. Cic. Csecas, a, un», adj. Cic.
Involatas, a, am, p. adj. Sen. Voy. BRCMEUX. NUAGEUX, OBSCUR.
Par plaidant. Il fait — dans son âme, eias animo nox qasedam
olfandttitr. Sen. \\ En pari, de la vcrti. Obïcuriw, a, am, adj. Cic. Voy.
SOURD, voiler. 1 (Fig.) Où manque la sérénité. Ater, ira, tram, adj.
Hor. (cf. atrse cars. llor.). Niger, gra, gram, adj. //or. Tristis, e, adj.
Cic. (cf. natara tristis. Cic). Saperciliosas, a, am, adj. Sen. Trux, adj.
Cic. (cf. t. valtas. Hor. Tac. traces ocali. Cic.). Tœtricas, a, um, adj.
Varr.Liy. Aspect —, «junior, oris, ra. Cic. (cf. sqaalor hiijas et sordes.
Cic.). Air — , nafiilam, i, n. Qaint. (cf. ocali tristitiâ qaoddam nabilam
dacant. Qaint. animi nubila. Plin.). La — avenir, voy. MENAÇANT,
TRISTE. sombrer, v. tr. Etre submergé de manière à disparaitrï
entièrement. Demergi. Plin. Sabmergi. Cses, Deprimi. Cses. Voy.
COULER, ENCLOLTIR. |{ (Fig.) Disparaître, se perdre. Voy.
ENGLOUTIR. sommaire, (lat. sammariam. Sen.], adj. et s. m. {| Adj.
Qui résume brièvement. Brevit, e, adj. Cic. (cf. laadatio, nai-ratio,
brevii. Cic. Sen.). In brève contractas. Sen. Samm.us, a, am, adj.
Cic. Fie. E.vécution — (faite à la hâte et sans jugement), voy.
précipité. Justice — , prompturn Jus. Liv. 1 6". m. fiéiiimé bref.
Complexio, onis, f. Cic. (cf. complexio brevi» tfitius j\sgotii. Cic.)
Commentariam, ii, n. Cic. Capot, piiis, n. Cic. (cf. cnpita rerain [• s.
d'un «liscours •]. Cic.). Summa, se, f. Cic. Brève, is, n. Sen. et brevis
(»-o lihitr), is, m. Quint. Le — d'une loi, legis index. Cic.
Bonunairement, adv. D'une manière sommaire. Breviter, adv.
Cic.Summatim, adv. Cic. Acervalim, adv. Cic. (cf. ac. relitjwi dicêre.
Cic.). Strictim, ad». Cic. (cf. légère librum SOM strictim. Cic.<. Traiter
— , amplecti (omniu commaniter). Liv. Exposor — , in brève coijêre.
Liv. Voy. résumer. 1. sommation, s. f. Opération §ar laquelle ou fait la
somme e plusieurs quantités. Voy. ADDITION. 5. sommation, s. f.
Action de sommer qqn, de faire qqch. Denantiatio, onis,{. Cic. — (de
divorce), nunCitu, ii, m. Ctc. — de payer, admonitio, onis, f. Dig. —
d'avoir à cesser des constructions préjudiciables à autrui, nuntiatio,
onis, f. Jet. .adresser à qqn une — , injicëre alicai manum. Plaat.
denantiùre alicui de aliquà re. Cic. ou interpellûre aliqaem. Jet. Faire
— de. . ., voy. soumer. 1. somme (lai. post. sagma. Veg. Eccl.), s. f.
(Arch.) B.\t. Voy. ce mot. Bt-te de — , jum,entam onerariam. Liv. ou
simpl. Jumentam, i, n. Cs'S. Bêtes de — , veteiinse bestix. Cato. fr.
ou simpl. veterinx, arum, t. pi, Varr. Plin. Bêles de — qui portent le
bagage do guerre, sai-cinariu /umenïa. Co^s. De lii'te do — ,
veterinas, a, uni, ailj. Plin. 2. somme, s. m. Temps plus ou moins
long pendant lequel on dort sans s'éveiller. Somnus, i, m. Cic. Voy.
sommf.il. Faire un petit — , pautiaper conqnicscére. A.
addormisc^i'C. intr. iSuef. Faire nn bon — ,ednrmire, intr. Cic. Ne
faire qu'un — .edormiscëreanumsomrvum. Plaut. Voy. DuRMiii. 3.
somme (lat. samma), s. f . Vo>'. lorAL. sommeil, (lat. pop.
somnicurio«[" léaersommeil -^.Not.Tir.), s. m. Suspension de
certaines parties de l'activité chez l'homme et chez les animaux et
qui sert à les reposer. Somnus, i, m. Cic. etc. (ex. : s. akus et gravis.
Curt. altior. Curt. altissimus [■ très profond, s. de plomb ■]. Liv.
levis. Jior. s. Endymionis [• s. d'Endymion, c.-à-d. éternel ■•]. Cic.
somni plenus. Cic. somni indigens. Cic.somnum. capére non possc.
Cic. somniim vidirc [• goùlir le s. •]. Cic. somnum tenërc [• se
défendre contre le s. -). Cic. somnurii afferre, conciliàre, concitàre,
(acëre, giyncrc parère [en pari, de remède:»]. Plin. somnummihi
atiulit e/n'stola. Cic. somnum pelére. Qaint. somnas aliqaem
complectitar. Cic. somno consopiri sempiterno. Cic. alto et gravi [-
profond et pesant -] somno sopilum esse. Cart. somno oppressas.
Cœs. oppressas inexcitabili somno [' plongé dans, accablé par un
sommeil de plomb, /itt. dont on ne peut être réveillé •]. Sen.
homines somno altissimo preSOM mère [• plonger •). I.iv. dire se
somno [• s'abaiulonner au s. •]. Cic. adimére [• ôtcr ■] alicai
tomniim. Cic. aliqaenx somno privnre (en pari, des soucis]. Cic.
aliqaem e.v somno e.vcitàre. Cic. ou exrire. Liv. cvcitas somno. Sali.
Liv. tropiris c somno sascitari. Cic. intcrruptum somnum recuparûve
non posse. Suet. somno [• pendant sont. •] vidère.Liv. per somnnn\
vidére. Justin, in somnis vidére. Cic.) ; sopOT, oris (' profond
sommeil ; engourdissement, léthargie •), m. Vicfl. Liv. Curt. nie.
(o\.:janci semine somnum allici, sed modum servandum, ne sopor
^at. Plin. sopor aliquem opprimit. Liv. gravi sopore acquiescëre.
Curt. velut ex alto sopore excitJti. Curt.); quies, etis,{' repos; repos
de la nuit; sommeil • ), f. Cic. etc. (ex.: tradère se quieii. Cic.
secandam qaietem ou in quiète. Cic. au plur. ncgue qaietihus sedari.
Sali. [Cat. 15, U]; voy. repos). Par ext. Avoir — , dormitàre, intr. Cic.
somni indigêre. Cic. Tomber do — , lassitudine confectam esse. Cic.
somno connivëre. Tac. ^ (Au fig.) Etat d'inertie. Somnus, i, va. Cic.
etc. (ex.: somno deditua. Cic. voy. ENGOURDISSEMENT, torpeur).
sommeiller, v. intr. Se laisser aller au sommeil. Somno ou guieti se
dàre. A. Dormitàre, intr. Cic. Voy. assoupir, endormir. Il (P. cxt.)
Cesser d'être vigilant. Dormîre, intr. Ter. Cic. Dormitàre, intr. JJor. (cf.
qaandoqae bonus dormiiat Homerus. Hor. Y Languêrc, intr. Cic.
Segnem (tardani ou lentum) esse. A. Voy. languir, relâcher. Gens qui
sommeillent, dediti somno. Sali. Vertu qui sommeille, sopita virtus.
Cic. — toujours, sempiternam quietem pati. Cic. || .N'être pus
encore en activité. Somno opprimi. Cas. Voy. oormiii, reposer.
sommelier, ière, s. m. et f. (ului, celle qui a la charge do tout ce qui
conoerno la table. Cellarius,ii, m. Plaut. /Vomuf, i, m. Cic .Condus, i,
ta. Plaut. Sous ,suppromus,i, m. Plaut, Sommelière , cellaria , œ, f.
Plaut. Il (Spéo.) Celui qui dans un restaurant a la charge du vin.
Cellai'ius, ii, m. Sen. sommellerie , s. f. Charge do sommelier.
Dispcnsatio, onis, f. Cic. Il Lieu où le sommelier garde ce qui lui e.st
confié. Voy. OIFIC E. 1. sommer (lat. post. sammàru. Scliol.), v. tr.
Faire I» total de (plusieurs Quantités). Summum l'acère aticajua rci.
Cic. Voy. ADUITIONNER. 2. sommer, v. tr. Mettre ^qqn)
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I69S SON pour l'explorer. Spacillum. i, n.Cic. ^cf. asperatuin

specillum l-s.crénelie •]. CeU.).Acas, ùs (abl. plur. acabas), f. C<;ts. /
•'!stala, X, f. Cels. — pour l'oreille, au/iica/piuni, ii, n. Scrib. — pour
les voies urinaii-ei, catlieler, eris (Ac<;. era), m. Csel.-Aur. ûpéralion
pialiquée avec la — , catheteriamus, i, m. Cxl.-Aur. ^ Tige dout se
serveDt les douaaiers pour explorer le» voitures, etc. Telonearii
baculum. A. sonder, v. ir. Explorer avec la soade. Tenture • maris
altitudinem). Iiid. {vadum (luminis). Cee$. — UQ terrain, humam
rimari. Tac. — le terrain (fis.), vadam tentâre. Ov. — une plaie, valnoi
specillo tentàre. Cels. 1 (.4u fig.) Chercher à pénétrer les intentions
de qqnTentàre, ir. Cic. etc. {e\.: ni if/iK^m. Cic. animos. Liv.);
&ttentàre, tr. Cic. etc. (ex. : volantates alica^as. Cic); pertentàre, tr.
'1er. I.1V. 7ac.(ex.: aliqaem. Ter.animam coliOitis. Tac. nobiliam
adolescent ium animos. Liv. [II, 3, 6,; exploràre, tr. Liv. (ex. :
animos. Liv.); perspicëre, tr. Cic. (ex. : ejas anirnanx erga me. Cic).
sondeur, euse, s. m. et f. Celui, celle qui sonde. Explnrator,oris, m.
A.Exploralruc, tricis, f. A. Qui. iquss), tentât, pertentat, scratatar vadi
altitadinem. A. Qui, qaa: tcrebrando (ou perforando) tentât. A.
songe, s. m. Combinaison bizarre d'innages, élaborées pendant le
sommeil. Viaam aornnii Cic. ou somniantis. Cic. Visus nocttirnas. Liv.
Species per qiùetem oblata ou in qaiete visa. Jast. Somniispeciea.
l'Un. j. ou simplt. somniam, ii, n. Cic. (cf. ali somnio. Cic. somniam
vidére. Ov. somnium lOmniâre. Plaut. somnium alioai conjicëre [•
expliquer à qqn un songe -]. Plaat. voy. rève). Avoir un — ,
somniûre, intr. Cic. (voy. rêver). Voir en — , {speciem) vidërc in
somnis. Cic. ou per somnum. Jaalin. ou in qaiete ou per qaietem.
Jastin. (cf. consati visa species viri [• le consul vit en 9. un homme
•]. Liv.). J'ai vu en — que..., j'ai eu un — , qui m'a appris que... in
somnia visas sam (avec la Prop. Infln.). Cic. Interprétation des — ,
somniorum conjectUt ou interpretatio ou simpl. conjectura, œ,t.Cic.
Interprète des —, somniorurn ■:onjector ou simpl. conjector, uris, m.
Cic. Loc. prov. Tous — sont mensonges, vana est omnium
tomniorum species (ou imago). A. {{ En parlant de ce dont la réalité
nous sembl': douteuse, et ftg.,ee qui n'a que l'apparence de la
réalité. .Somnium, ii, a, Cic. (cf. somnio SON .
 SON Cic. eloquentia inane aliijaiJ «t langiiiJuin sonat , ubi. .
. Qaint. sonantia [«(lui sonnent bien •] verba. Plin. j. [ep. I, 16, 2] ;
on dit aussi sonum dâ/<;, eiiëre ou leddëre. Cic); tinnire, intr. Varr.
Quint. (ex. : tinnit iintinnabalum. A. mendosam tinnire [-s. creux-].
Peri.y, canëre (en pari, d'instruments de musique), intr. Plaat. Liv.
(ex. : tabse corntiaque cecinerant. Liv. classit'um canit. Liv.). Faire —
les voyelles, litteras dilatûre. Cic. Faire — des écus, aureolos crepàre.
Mart. [V,19, U]. ou simpl. tinnire. Cic. (ad Att. XIV, al, extr.). Fig.
Faire — qqch. c.-à-d. y insister , prsedicàre (aliquid). Cic. Jactàre
[aliquid). Cic. \\ (Par ext.) En parlant do ce qu'indique le son. La
messe — , pulsantar si^na ad missan\ pablicam. Alcain. Cinq heures
ont — , hora qainta aadita est. Gs. Ou annonce que cinq heures ont
sonné, hora quinta nuntiatar. Gs. d'apr. Suet. (Dom. 16). || Faire
rendre un son à (qqch.). Inûâre, tr. Cic. etc. (ex. : bacinam. Varr.
ttibam inscienter. Liv. par ext. paulo inpavitvehementius.Cic. n,eg. I,
2, 6]) ; canëre , intr. Cic. etc. (ex. : c. conchâ [en pari, de Triton].
Plin. c. bene, maie. Plin./. absurde [«faux.]. Cic). 1 V. tr. Tirer le son
de (qqch.). Pulsàre , tr. Lacr. Virg. (ex.: campanam [• la cloche •].
A.). Ellipt. On sonne, tinnit tintinnabalam. A. On & sonné, pulsantar
fores. Plaat. Ter. ostiam concrepuit. Plaat. Ter. — (à la porte),
movêre tintinnabalam forium. Gs. (ou d'après l'usage des anciens),
palsàre' (ores ou janaam. Plaut. Ter. Cic. || (Arch.) Personne ne —
mot, nemo verbam facit. Ctc. Il (Par ext.) Annoncer (qtjch.) par le
son. Canëre, tr. et intr. Cic. etc. (dans des express, c. canëre
bellicam [■ s. la charfe ■]. Cic. signa canëre jabet • il fait 9. la
charge ■]. Liv. receptui canëre [- s. la retraite "1. Liv. Csesar receptai
cani jossit. Cass.). On sonne le bain, œs thermarum sonat. Uart. ||
Avertir, appeler (qqn) par le son. jEris tinnita atiqaem arcessére.Gs.
Si le maître a sonné, si digitis concrepaerit.Cic. (le maître appelait
l'esclave en faisant claquer ses doigts). sonnerie, s. f. Ensemble des
pièces qui font sonner qqch. 6oni, oram, m. pi. Cic. ^ Manière de
sonner. Tinnitas, as, m. Plin. Cantas, ûs, m. Cic, (cf. c. bacinaram.
Cic. tabaram. Liv.). Une — de clairon?, classicam, i, n. Liv. Faire
entendre une — de clairons, classicam canëre. Cpps. sonnette, s. f.
Clochette destiSOP née à appeler, à avertir. Tintinnabalam, », n.
Plaat. Sen. Plued. sonneur, s. m. Celui qui sonne. Liai sonitas edit ou
qai tinnit. A. Il (Spéc.) Celui qui sonne les cloches. Qui campanas
puisât. A. Il Celui qui sonne de la trompette, du cor. Bacinator, oris,
m. Cœs. sonore, adj. Qui rend un son. ironans, p. adj. Cic. Vocalis,
e, adj. Qaint. Honita prœditas. Plin. Etre — , sonitam dàre ou edëre.
Cic. 1 Qui a beaucoup de son, et p. ext. qui renvoie liien le sou.
Sonans, p. adj. Viry. Sonoras , a, um, adj. Virg. Resonans, p. adj.
Cic. (cf. res. theatram. Cic). Canoras, a, am, adj. Cic. (cf. canora vox.
Cic. can. latratas. Col.). Vocalis, e, adj. Plin. (cf. voc. sonas. Tac.
verba vocaliora. Quint.). Voix — , splendida vox. Cic. sonitixs claritas
in voce. Cic. vox plena. Cic Etre — , sonore, intr. Cces. resonâre, intr.
Cic. Parler d'une voix—, sonore, intr. Cic. Fig. Discours — , oratio
verbis sonans. Qaint. Mots creux et —, phrases vides et — ,
i/er6oram sonifus inanis. Cic. tinnitas, ûs, m. Tac. sonorité (lat. post.
sonoritas. Prise), s. f. Caractère de ce qui est sonore. Claritas, atis, t.
Cic (cf. clar. in voce. Cic). Vocalitas, atis, f. Qaint. Scène pleine de —
, resonans theatram. Cic. Avoir do la — , resonâre, intr. Cic Sans — ,
surdas, a, um, adj. Vitr. (cf. sardum theatram. Viti:). — de la voix,
splendor vocis. Cic sopha. Voy. sofa. sophisme , a. m. Argument
captieux. Captio, onis, f. Cic. (cf. captio dialectica ou sophistica. Cic).
Calamnia, a?, f. Cic. (cf. c. Arcesilai. Cic). Sophisma, matis, n. Sen.
Circamscriptio, onis, f. Sen. Des — , cavillationes, am, f. pi. Quint.
Les — des Stoïciens, laqaei Stoïcorum. Cic. Misérables — , fallaces
conclusiancalae. Cic. User de — , cavillâri, dép. intr. Cic. Débrouiller
des — , captiosa sûlvëre. Cic. sophiste, s. m. Sorte de professeur
d'éloouence aui enseignait en Grèce à plaider le pour et le contre.
Sophistes, œ, m. Cic. Cavillator, oris, m. Sen. Il (Fig.) Celui qui fait
des arguments captieux. Cavillator, onis, m. Sen. Une — , cavillatrix,
icis, f. Qaint. sophistication, s. f. Action de sophistiquer. Cavillatio,
onis, f. Qaint. \\ (Spécialt.) Action de dénaturer par un mélange
frauduleux. Voy. falsification. sophistique (lat. post. sophisticas. Gell.
Arn.), adj. Qui appartient au sophisme. Captiosas, a, am, adj. Cic.
D'une SOR 1C93 manière — , sophislaram more. A. captiosé. adv.
Cic. Qui appartient aux sophistes. Trîkdiiirepar le gén. sophistarum. I
Subst. au fém La — (l'art dos sophistes). Ais sophistaram. A.
Cavillatrix, tricis, f. Quint. (II, 15, 2.5). sophistiquer (lat. post.
sophisticàri. Jntpr. Arist.), v. intr. et tr. I'. intr. Faire des sophismes.
Cavillâri, dép. intr. Liv. T Dénaturer (une substance) par un mélange
frauduleux Voy. FALSIFIER. I| (Fig,) Voy. co.NTREFAiiiE. Sophistiqué,
voy. FAUX, TROMPEUn. sophistiquerie, s. f. Subtilité sophistique. Voy.
sophisme, sophistication, sophistiqueur, euse, s. m. et f. Celui, celle
qui aime les subtilités sophistiques. Voy. sophiste. Il Celui, celle qui
dénature par un mélange frauduleux. Voy. falsificatedr. soporatif, ive,
adj. Qui a la propriété d'endormir. Voy. narcotique, soporifique.
soporeux , euse, adj. Caractérisé par un sommeil morbide.
Somniculûsas, a, um, adj. Cic. Veternosas, a, um, adj. Cato. Plin.
Etat — , veternas, i, m. Plaut. sopor, oris, m. Plin. soporifère, adj.
(Arch.) Soporifique. Voy. ce mot. soporifique, adj. Qui fait naître ie
sommeil. Qui {qu3e,quod) sopit ou consopit ou somnam offert.
A.Somnifer,fera,(eram, adj. Plin. Somni^tcas, a, am, adj. Plin. Etre
—, st^oràre, tr. Scribon. Subst. Un — , medicamentum qaod
somnam facit. A. sopor, oris, m. Sen, Plin. soprano, s. m. Voix du
registre le plus élevé. Vox acuta. Cic. Sonas acatissimus. Cic. II (P.
ext.) Personne ayant cette VOIX. Homo (malier) voce acatissimâ
prxaitas {a). A. SOT. Voy. SAUR. sorbe, s. f. Fruit du sorbier. Sorbam,
i, n. Cato. Virg. sorbet, s. m. Boisson glacée fondante. Nivata aqua.
Mart. sorbier, s. m. .\rbre de la famille des rosacées. Sorbas, i, f. Coi.
Plin. — domestique, voy. CORMIER. sorcellerie, s. f. Art des sorciers,
ilagica ars ou disciplina. A. Voy. MAGIE. 1 (P. ext.) Pratique de
sorcier. Voy. sortilège. sorcier, ière, s. m. et f. Celui, celle à qui on
attribue on pou voir surnaturel. Magas, i, m. Hor. Il Sorcière. Saga,
x, f. Cic. Volatica, œ, f. Fett. (voy. Dict. latin-français). sordide, adj.
Sale à faire honte. Sordidas, a, am, adj. Cels. ImmuTidus, a, am,
adj. Plaut. Il (Fig.) Sordidas, a, um, adj. Cic Avarice — , êordes, iam
f.
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169Ji SOR pi. CL\ Il (P. ext.) Gains —, iUiberalfS et sordidi

qamtas. Cic. sordidement, adv. D'une manirre *-)r.ii^ie. ^ordidé^
adv. I'!:n. j. Suei. eordidjté. s. f. Caractère de ce qui est -ordide. Soi-
des, l'um, f. pi. Cic. sorgho. >. m. Planta roisinc du m;ii<. -
^orghum. i, n. Linné. Uulcus, i, m. Ptin. aorite, s. m. Suite de
propositions écroitemeni liée? les unes aux autres. Acerviu, i, m. Cic.
Soritfs, 3e (Dat. ioriti), m. Cic. Eq forme de — , acervalis, e, adj. Cic.
sornette, s. f. Propos vide de sens, .\iijs, arum, f. pi. Cic. IneptUv,
iram, i. pi. Cic, Tricf, arum. f. pi. Plaat. Ce ne sont la 'jue des — ,
verba 3unt. Ter, Dire des — , nagâri, dép. intr. '.'ic. sort, s m.
Condition échue à cliac^ue homme. Sors, sortis, (. Cic. etc. Virg. Liv,
(ex. : s. tecand'X [• prospère •]. Liv. miecra,Liv. gravis. Liv, nescia
mens sortis {atars. Virg. s. iniqaa. Liv. ou iniiaissima. Liv, illacrimâre
sjrti hamanse. Liv. saA mrte contentw:' vivëre. ILir y, fortUDa, se, f.
Cic. etc. (ex. : magna. Liv. fiorens. Liv. foriana 2mplissima. Cic. f.
inpma servoram. Cic. similitudo (•irt puissance. Fatum, i, a. Pron. I-
'jrtuna, a?, f. Ov. \\ (Par anal.) Hasard auquel on s'en rapporte pour
décider qqch. Sors, sortis, f. Cic. etc. (ex.: alimiid ! sorti committëre
ou permittëre. Cir. sorte dacëre [■ tirer ']. 6'u//. res revocatur ad
sortem. Cic. conjicëre in sortem provincias. Liv, ei sorte provincia
evenit. Cic. extra sortem renuntiari [• Etre proclamé sans avoir été
soumis au tirage au s..]. Cic.). Tirer au — , sortir!, intr. et tr. Cic. etc.
(ex. : s. inter se. Cic. s. provinciam. Cic. tribas [• les tribus .]. Cic.
/udtcds. Ctc.
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30R ii, n. Cic. (cf. cffagiam assequi [• trouver une porte de

s. •]. Cic. servâfe effaijium in futaruin.Tac.).\\{^po.c). En pari, d'un
acteur qui son de la scène. E scsena exitua ou abitas. A. Faire une —
, scxnam relinqiiêre. A. ou de scxnà decedére. A. Fausse — , f misas
ou simulatas exitus. A. Il fit une fausse — , siinalavit se e scsna
exire. A. || Bn pari, d'assiégés qui sortent de la place pour attaquer.
Eruptio, onis, {.Cœs. (cf. eruptio ex oppido. Liv. erapdo in hostes.
Liv. eraptiones oppidanoram. Liv.eraptioneni facére.Cxs.). Excarsio,
onis, f. Cxs. (cf. facére crebras excursiones. Cxs.). Excarsus, ùs, m.
Ca^s. l'aire une ou des — , erampére, intr. Caes. (cf. erumpére ex
castris. Cxs. portis. Sali. in. stationes hostium. Liv.). excarrërSy intr.
Liv. (cf. exe. omnibus partis. Liv.). procurrëve, intr. Cœs. (cf. proc. ex
castris. Cees.). impetam facére ex aliquo loco. Liv. || (Fig.) Brusque
attaque dirigée en paroles contre qqn. Insectatio, onis, f. Liv. Quint.
Tac. {cf.insectationibuspelére.Tac). ImpetuSy ûs, m. Cic. etc. (cf.
saam salutem contra itlias inipetum in se crudelissimum defendère.
Cic). — mordante, cavillatio, onis, f. Liv. Faire une — contre qqn,
insectâri eUiqaem. Cic. invehi in aliZuem. Cic. aliquem cavillàri. iV.
Voy. ATTAQUE, INVECTIVE. 1 En pari . des objets de trafic qu'on
transporte hors du pays. Voy. EXPORTATION. Droit de — , voy.
DOUANE. 1 (Poét.) Action de sortir de la vie.£^xces3ii3 e vita ou
vitx. Cic. Exitus vitx. Nep. Decessus e vitâ. Cic. Par ext. — de charge
(d'un magistrat), ] verba. Sen. au fïg. exisse e.v [ou de] potestate [»
sortir de soi-même, de ses gonds ■]. Cic. exisse a se [même trad.].
Petr. j par ext. e.rire nunquam a memorià hominajn. Sen. an jam
memoriâ exisse [av. I'.\cc. et rinf.]? Liv.); prodire (- s'avancer; sortir
•), intr. Cic. etc. (ex. : obviam miki est proditam [• on est sorti à ma
rencontre ■]. Cic. prodire ex porta. Cœs. in publicum. Cic. par anal,
folia ex radice prodeunt. Plin.) ; egredi, dép. intr. Cic. etc. (ex.: inde.
Varr. Liv. hinc. Plaut. foras. Plaut. ex arbe. Cic. ab urbe. Saet. arbe.
Cxs. Vell. ex cabiculo. Cic. posticâ domo clam. Val.-Max. janaâ.
Val.Max. extra fines. Cic. ad portam. Liv. au fig. extra hos cancellos
egredi conabor. Cic. certos mihi fines terminosqae constitaam, extra
qaos egredi non possim. Cic. a proposito [• de son sujet "]. Cic. t.
milit. egredi ordine. Sali. [Jug. hô, 21. e casti'is ou castris. Cxs. Sali.
ex hibernis. Cxs. ex provinciâ. Cxs. Adrameto. Auct. b. Afr. absol. per
agrum Cxretem obliquis tramitibus, Liv. prxsidio pabulationibas [•
sortir pour protéger les fourrageurs •]. Cxs. ad prœlium. Cxs.
speculatum [- pour s'éclairer '], framentatum f. pour s'approvisionner
de blé "]. Liv. t. naut. egredi ex navi ou navi. Cic. Cxs. egredi e
portu. Cic. Quint.); digredi {' s'éloigner, sortir •), dép. intr. Cio. etc.
(au fig. ex. : officia. Ter. de causa. Cic. a causa [■du sujet •]. Cic.) ;
progredi {^ s'avancer, sortir •), dép. intr. Cic. etc. (ex. ; ex dojno.
Cic. extra vallum. Axict. b. Afr. t. milit. alicai obviam ab staSOR 1695
tiane. Liv. absol. pr. pabalatum. Liv. pabulandi aut frumentandi
causa. Cxs.) ; cedére, intr. Cic. etc. (voy. [), intr. Cic. etc. (ex. :
postula ut mihi respondeat, iste Verrutius in Siciliâ sit an jam
decesserit. Cic. relinqaëre domos ac sedes saas et d. ex Sicitiâ. Cic.
d. cum eodem Lacullo ex eâ provinciâ. Cic. voce clarâ denuntiasse
sibi, ut tridao [» sous trois jours ..] regni sai finibus décédèrent. Liv.
pantherx constitaisse dicuntar [■ ont résolu, dit-on •] in Cariam ex
nost7'â provinciâ decedère [« de s. de notre province pour aller en
Carie •]. Cic. [ep. II, II, 2]. de via decedère [■- s. du bon chemin "
au pr. et au fig.]. Cic. [Clu. 163; C.-el. 3S]. naves impradentiâ aut
tempestate paa~ lulam sua cursu decesserunt [- sortirent de leur
route »]. Cxs. au fig. d. de officia. Liv. t. milit. decedère atque
exercitum deducère ex his regionibas. Cxs. inde decedère. Cxs. d. de
vallo. Cxs. ex Italiâ. Liv. ex Cypro ante certam diem. Cic. inj'assa
prxsidio. Liv. pugnâ [• du champ de bataille •]. Liv. d. agro sociorum,
ac deducère cvercitani finibas Lacanis. Liv. armis relictis Siciliâ
decedère. Nep.) ; discedère {'■ s'en aller, s'éloigner •), intr. Cic. etc.
(ex. : discedo ab illa [« je sors d'avec lui ■}. Ter. d. e Gallià. Cic. e
patrià. Ov. Capuâ. Cic. t. milit. d. ex hibernis. Cxs. Tarracone. Cxs. au
fig. d. ab officia, a fide [• do son devoir ■]. Cic. par ext. a re [• de
son sujet -]. Cic. par anal, nunquam ex anima meo discedit illius viri
memoria. Cic. a mente atque a se discessit [' il est sorti de lui-
même, de ses gonds •]. Cic.); excedère, intr. Cic. etc. (ex. : urbe.
Cic. oppido. Cxs. finibas. Liv. ex itinere, ex via. Cxs. via. Liv. extra
vallum. Liv. impers. ita Crotone excessum est. Liv. avec l'indication
de l'endr. où l'on va : agro hostiam in [» pour aller en •] Bœotiam.
Liv. au lîg. excedëre e mem,oriâ. Liv. par anal, excedëre paulum
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1696 SOR [■ Eortir un peu de sod sujet •] ad enarramiunx,

uuiim [• combieu 4.. Uv. [XXIX, S9, 5]. in fabelUtm exceîsi [• je suis
sorti de mou sujet pour te faire un récit •] non injratam tibi. Sen.
[ep. 77, 1Û]>; procedère i- s'avancer hors de, d'où sortir •), intr. Cic.
etc. (ei. : (oribas forât. Plaut. e ttibernaculo in $olem. Cic. ante
portam. Liv. extra manitiona. Cses. alicai obviam procedère. Cic. p.
de castris. Sali, paeri, qui visum processerjnt [ex castello]. -Sa//.)—
à la hùta, tout-à-coup, pi-éeipitamœent, etc., avoiare, intr. Cic. etc.
(ex. : (xpei'iar certe, at hinc avolem. Cic.) ; evolâre, intr. Cic. etc.
(ex. : evoiàre atqae excarrére foras. Cic. e-r arbe. Cic. ex omnibus
paitibus silvse. Cses. e senata. Cic.) ; erumpére. intr. Cic. etc. (ex. :
ignés ex jEtme vertice erampunt. Cic. [voy. jailub]. t. milit. erampëre
ex castris. Cses. partis. Sali, au fig. erumpat enim aliqaando vera et
me digna vox. Cic. ex laxarià exsistat avaritia necesse est, ex avaritia
erumpat OiÀdacia. Cic.) ; evadère, intr. Cic. etc. (ex. : ex balneis.
Cic. ex aqaà. Plaat. rétro ex angustiis. Cart. ex mis abditis sedibas in
hxc loca. Cic. ex alvo f/eqaenter [en pari, des abeilles]. Varr. oppiao.
Sali, cum ex insipiente corpore evasisset animas. Cic); excurrëre,
intr. Cic. etc. (ex. : excarrat aliquis domo. Cic. au fig- ouorun» animi
spretis corporuias evolant atqae excurrunt foras. Cic. t. milit.:
excarrére omnibus partibat, Liv. ex Afrià. Cic.); procurrére (• courir
en avant; eortir •), intr. Cic. etc. (ex. : foras. Cic. ex castris. Cses. in
pablicam. Cses. in vias. Liv. t. milit. : ex acie. Cses. extra aciem.
Cses.) ; se proripère. Cic. etc. (voy. f9']iÎLA.NCBK, [se] précipiter).
en pari, d'un liquide, etc.), ûuëre, intr. Cic. etc. (voy. couler);
deûuëre (• descendre ; en coulant, découler •), intr. j Cic. etc. (voy.
couler, décoo- | ler; au fîg. altius injuriée quam mérita descendant et
illa [i.-e. mérita] cito defluunt [• sortent ; de l'esprit •), has [i. e. injw
rias] tenax memoria custodit. Sen. fben. I, 1, 81k efûuëre {• couler
hors de, 9 écouler, découler •), intr. Cic. etc. (voy. COULER,
[e'JÉCOULERj au fig. effluére ex animo alicajut. Cic. absol. quod
lotam effluxerat. etc.); proûuëre (• découler, couler •). intr. Cic. etc.
(ex. : p. ex monte, des. voy. cou- , LER, découler; au fîg. cujus nre
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