CHAPTER

Assessment of riverbank
erosion and its prediction
using geospatial and
machine learning
19
techniques
Md Naimur Rahman1,2,3, Md Mushfiqus Saleheen4, Hamza EL Fadili5 and
Md Nazirul Islam Sarker6
1
Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon, Hong Kong, P.R. China
2
David C Lam Institute for East-West Studies, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon,
Hong Kong, P.R. China
3
Department of Development Studies, Daffodil International University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
4
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur,
Bangladesh
5
Laboratory of Spectroscopy, Molecular Modeling, Materials, Nanomaterials, Water and
Environment, Materials for Environment Team, ENSAM, Mohammed V University in Rabat,
Rabat, Morocco
6
Miyan Research Institute, International University of Business Agriculture and Technology,
Dhaka, Bangladesh

19.1 Introduction
One of Bangladesh’s three principal rivers, the Jamuna, plays a crucial role in the
development of the deltaic terrain. However, it is clear that the river is rapidly
losing land along its banks and suffering from significant bank erosion, especially
along the Brahmaputra Jamuna River (Khan & Islam, 2003). While this erosion
is an inevitable event, anthropogenic actions have disturbed the river’s natural
geomorphological dynamics. Extraction of sand from mines, construction of struc-
tures on riverbanks, artificial cutoffs, and banks revetted artificially, as well as
the creation of reservoirs and changes in land use are examples of disturbances to
river stability that need adjustment (Gocić et al., 2020). Riverbank erosion
remains a serious threat in morphological terms, which requires further research
in order to manage and better understand natural processes as well as human
activities in order to ensure long-term sustainability for these vital waterways.
Bangladesh presents unique challenges when it comes to flooding patterns; there-
fore, it is crucial that its people observe and comprehend these fluid patterns that

Applications of Geospatial Technology and Modeling for River Basin Management.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-443-23890-1.00019-0
493
© 2025 Elsevier Inc. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.
494 CHAPTER 19 Assessment of riverbank erosion and its prediction

vary in terms of frequency, intensity, and depth. Bangladesh experiences annual

flood damage of 21% of its total land surface area, which covers an approximate
31,000-km expanse, each year. Assuming an equal distribution of people, 21%
are at high risk from flooding events. Flood waters have the ability to affect up to
60% of an entire nation, meaning up to 70 million people could become victims.
Three years, in particular 1987, 1998 and 1999, are an eloquent reminder that
Bangladesh endured three catastrophic floods that inflicted untold destruction and
immense suffering on its people (Dewan, Nishigaki, & Komatsu, 2003; Mirza,
2003). Bangladesh has seen long-term and frequent riverbank erosion over recent
years (Malak, Hossain, Quader, Akter, & Islam, 2021), most commonly in areas
along its outer edges. Riverbank erosion tends to occur most frequently on banks
that lie adjacent to rivers (Malak et al., 2021). Erosion severity depends on the
characteristics of materials used on riverbanks (Uwadiae Oyegun, Olanrewaju, &
Mark, 2023). At Jamuna River, in-depth assessments were carried out to under-
stand its bank materials’ properties—an important step toward developing predic-
tive tools (Uddin, Shrestha, & Alam, 2011). Therefore, it is vitally important to
evaluate both historical patterns of spatial-temporal change and future trends of
erosion of riverbanks in an area. Satellite remote sensing has proven to be an effi-
cient means of conducting extensive analyses on fluvial channel dynamics across
large geographic regions.
Remote sensing via satellite has proven to be extremely valuable in under-
standing the dynamics of fluvial channels over large geographic areas, as it allows
scientists to measure movement patterns of rivers as well as identify braided
channels on terraces and identify old, braided streams that have formed. Many
studies have employed geospatial techniques, for instance, by superimposing his-
toric channel maps across various river systems to detect significant channel
transformations (Desai, Shukla, & Tandon, 2023; Khatun, Rahaman, Garai, Das,
& Tiwari, 2022). Bangladesh remote sensing data have proven to be instrumental
in monitoring changes to river channels caused by human impact, as well as
actions associated with patterns of land use (Halder & Mowla Chowdhury, 2023;
Naimur Rahman, Mushfiqus Saleheen, Shozib, & Towfiqul Islam, 2023). Satellite
images reveal a disturbing reality: annual river infiltration onto 6700 ha of arable
land is impacting 800,000 lives (DMB, 2008). This highlights the vital signifi-
cance of satellite remote sensing not only in understanding fluvial systems but
also in dealing with their major problems. Studies conducted to date on erosion
patterns along the Jamuna River have provided insights into its erosion at several
locations (Aktar, 2013; Hassan, Ratna, Hassan, & Tamanna, 2017; Pahlowan &
Hossain, 2015), but few examined erosion and accretion trends and predictions
for Ulipur upazila. To address these gaps, the purpose of this chapter is to investi-
gate temporally and spatially degrading processes on Jamuna River using artificial
neural network (ANN) models as predictors. This study unveils erosion patterns
not just caused by erosion but also their variations over time. An in-depth investi-
gation of channel dynamics within Jamuna River was carried out using time series
data collected via multispectral satellite images. This study presents us with a
 19.2 The rationale of the study 495

great opportunity to advance our understanding of predictive analysis models that

accurately forecast river morphological features such as channel movement, erosion
patterns, sedimentation rates, and channel processes. This research marks a substantial
step in our ability to comprehend the geomorphological changes taking place on
Jamuna river that is continuously shifting. This has implications for local residents,
political leaders, and environmental scientists committed to sustainable river manage-
ment and disaster preparedness. Focusing on Ulipur upazilas, this study could highlight
erosion’s effects on granular scale and accumulation processes and offer specific solu-
tions to residents living there. Furthermore, its aim is to provide an in-depth knowledge
of riverine dynamics not often covered in studies of fluvial geomorphology.

19.2 The rationale of the study

Bangladesh has already experienced numerous natural disasters that have proven its
susceptibility to disasters, with climate change acting as an aggravating factor
(Sarker et al., 2022). Bangladesh is plagued annually by natural disasters such as
tropical storm surges, cyclones, flooding and coastal erosion, as well as drought
(Sarker, Wu, Alam, & Shouse, 2019). Each of these events causes irreparable harm
to both property and lives and can impede development activities. Erosion of river-
banks is an ongoing yet silent tragedy that is the leading source of loss in
Bangladesh (Islam, 2017; Mamun, Islam, Alam, Chandra Pal, & Alam, 2022).
Rising water levels upstream, sudden floods, sedimentation on riverbeds, and
unplanned interventions are some of the leading contributors to erosion in river-
banks. Riverbank erosion is one of the most unpredictable annual disasters that
threaten households’ properties, shelter, and other essential social and physical assets
(Tran et al., 2023). As they move into new communities and establish themselves
there, these migrants often lose contact with both family members and social net-
works that existed before moving. Erosion of riverbanks has an enormously detri-
mental impact on socioeconomic factors, including family shelters and standing
crops, income loss, decreased family ties, social isolation, and eventually homeless-
ness in Bangladesh (Siddik, Zaman, Islam, Hridoy, & Akhtar, 2017). Erosion
accounts for half of all homelessness cases in Bangladesh. Jamuna River in
Bangladesh has experienced rapid bank erosion over recent decades, creating major
socioeconomic and environmental concerns for ecosystems and communities.
Predictive models with the capability of accurately forecasting trends in erosion and
accretion are integral components of long-term planning and building resilience
(Saadon, Abdullah, Muhammad, Ariffin, & Julien, 2021), but their use with Jamuna
River remains understudied, creating an information void both academics and local
authorities need in order to plan effectively and build resilience. Unfortunately, how-
ever, their application in relation to Jamuna remains underresearched, creating gaps
in both research as well as applications of findings. Early warning programs, com-
munity engagement efforts, and innovative erosion control methods are key
496 CHAPTER 19 Assessment of riverbank erosion and its prediction

components of improving river management tactics and methods. Therefore, this

study seeks to fill this gap by providing information from research in terms of
Jamuna River management strategies and methods. This chapter evaluates the ero-
sion of the Jamuna River and its potential future changes within Ulipur upazila using
supervised and unsupervised classification and the ANN model.

19.3 Materials and methods

19.3.1 Study area
As part of studying the Jamuna River, an extraordinary geological event occurred
in 1787 that featured both tectonic shifts and flood waters, leading to extraordi-
nary alterations of Brahmaputra River flow and an extraordinary flood event. This
alteration resulted in Jamuna river being created as its main route when entering
Bangladesh from India. Jamuna river today follows an approximate path starting
in Kurigram district before merging with Padma river near Goalundo Ghat in
Bangladesh. Moreover, the study location includes Ulipur upazila, which falls
under the Kurigram district (Fig. 19.1). Within this defined region, the climate is
characterized as tropical monsoon, with the study area experiencing the seasonal
dynamics that accompany this climatic pattern.

FIGURE 19.1
Study area of Jamuna River in Ulipur Upazila. Map lines delineate study areas and do not
necessarily depict accepted national boundaries.
 19.3 Materials and methods 497

19.3.2 Data and methods

Satellite imagery was employed in this study to investigate erosion patterns and
predictive modeling. The dataset was sourced from the United States Geological
Survey via their Earth Explorer platform (https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/). The
selected temporal range for the satellite images included data from the years
2003, 2013, and 2022. This deliberate choice of a 10-year interval between the
years enabled us to effectively capture and visualize the transformative changes
that occurred over this period (Fig. 19.2).
It is important to note that at the time of conducting this research, satellite
images for the year 2023 were not available for analysis. As a result, the most
recent imagery accessible for our investigation was from the year 2022.
Additional information pertaining to the satellite imagery employed in this
research can be found in Table 19.1.

FIGURE 19.2
Methodological flowchart on changes of riverbank erosion.
498 CHAPTER 19 Assessment of riverbank erosion and its prediction

Table 19.1 Detailed description of satellite imageries.

Area Year Landsat Date of acquisition Sensor Path and row
Ulipur area 2003 Landsat-7 November 26, 2003 ETM 138/42
2013 Landsat-7 November 21, 2013 TM
2022 Landsat-8 November 22, 2022 ETM 138/42

FIGURE 19.3
Methodological flowchart on prediction of riverbank erosion.

Within this study, we utilized both supervised and unsupervised image classi-
fication techniques to methodically monitor riverbank erosion over the period
from 2003 to 2022. This comprehensive analysis facilitated the projection of
future erosion dynamics, primarily relying on the predictive capabilities of an
ANN, with a specific focus on the year 2042 (Fig. 19.3).
The basis for our predictive model was drawn from the classified imagery of
2003 and 2022. Subsequently, geospatial analysis was executed using ArcGIS
10.8, allowing us to quantify the extent of riverbank erosion over the specified
 19.4 Results and discussion 499

period. To anticipate the forthcoming spatiotemporal changes in riverbank ero-

sion, QGIS 2.18.15 software was employed, enabling a holistic and forward-
looking assessment of this critical environmental phenomenon.

19.4 Results and discussion

19.4.1 Major findings
Table 19.2 illustrates a decline in the total river area, with the most significant
reduction projected for 2042 at 5433.82 ha. Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that an
increase was observed in 2013, amounting to 7083 ha, as compared to the initial
measurement of 6038 ha in 2003.
Table 19.3 and Fig. 19.4 present a detailed account of the spatiotemporal
changes in erosion activity observed along the Jamuna river in the Ulipur upazila,
spanning different time intervals from 2003 to 2042. Therefore, the data presented
in Tables 19.2 and 19.3, along with the corresponding figures, provide a nuanced
understanding of the geomorphological changes occurring along the Jamuna
River in Ulipur Upazila. These changes are crucial in understanding the river’s
dynamics and the implications for local land use and conservation efforts.
Table 21.3 categorizes the land area into three distinct classifications, unchanged
area, erosion, and accretion, with each category denoting the area in hectares (ha)
that corresponds to these classifications. The unchanged area category provides
insights into the land that remains consistent along the riverbanks. In the decade
from 2003 to 2013, this area amounted to 2937.38 ha. Nonetheless, a noticeable
decrease in the area that remained unchanged can be observed in the following
timeframe, spanning from 2013 to 2022, with a landmass of 2850.76 ha. Most sig-
nificantly, from 2022 to 2042, the unchanged area saw a substantial decrease to
2218.20 ha (Fig. 19.5). This diminishing trend may suggest an escalated rate of

Table 19.2 Total area of river channel of Jamuna River in Ulipur Upazila.
2003 2013 2022 2042
6038.9 7083.24 5500.82 5433.82

Table 19.3 Temporal changes of erosion activity of Jamuna river in Ulipur

upazila (area in ha).
2003_13 2013_22 2003_22 2022_42
Unchanged area 2937.381186 2850.761006 2218.203038 5368.2178
Erosion 3101.527928 4232.483488 3820.706076 132.603805
Accretion 4145.863309 2650.060599 3282.618568 65.599109
500 CHAPTER 19 Assessment of riverbank erosion and its prediction

FIGURE 19.4
Spatial pattern of erosion activity of Jamuna river in Ulipur upazila.

erosion and alterations in the region’s geomorphology over time. Hence,

Table 19.3 and Fig. 19.4, which detail the spatiotemporal changes in erosion,
reveal a fluctuating pattern of land stability and loss. The decrease in unchanged
 19.4 Results and discussion 501

FIGURE 19.5
Predicted spatial pattern of erosion activity of Jamuna river in Ulipur upazila.

area over the years points to an increasing rate of change along the riverbanks,
highlighting the need for adaptive management strategies to mitigate the effects
of erosion (Tsakiris & Loucks, 2023). The sharp increase in erosion between
2013 and 2022, followed by a drastic reduction, underscores the variable nature
502 CHAPTER 19 Assessment of riverbank erosion and its prediction

of erosion processes, which could be linked to episodic events or changes in river

management practices.
Erosion, as a crucial factor shaping the riverbanks, exhibited distinct patterns.
Between 2003 and 2013, the area subject to erosion was measured at 3101.53 ha.
This erosion activity expanded significantly in the subsequent decade, from 2013
to 2022, with an affected area of 4232.48 ha. Intriguingly, there was a marked
reduction in erosion from 2022 to 2042, with only 132.60 ha impacted. The sharp
increase in erosion from 2013 to 2022 is a notable concern, potentially pointing
to an increased vulnerability of the land to erosional forces. Shifts may influence
the subsequent decline in erosion in river dynamics, land management practices,
or changes in climate conditions (Debnath et al., 2023; Rowland et al., 2023).
Conversely, accretion, the process of sediment buildup along riverbanks, dis-
played noteworthy variations. The spatial pattern includes the highest accretion
that happened in the northeast part of the study area. The accretion area was
increased by 4145.86 ha from 2003 to 2023. From 2013 to 2022, it saw a remark-
able surge in accretion activities, and it is projected to reach 3282.62 ha in 2042
(Fig. 19.5 and Table 19.2). The decrease between 2013 and 2022 may suggest
less accumulation of land or sediment on riverbanks, while its subsequent increase
may be linked to shifts in river dynamics, shifting sediment transport patterns, or
land management practices that aim to promote growth (Hasanuzzaman, Bera,
Islam, & Shit, 2023; Langhorst & Pavelsky, 2023). Therefore, this study offers an
important and thorough examination of the interactions among erosion, accretion,
and other geomorphological processes occurring along the Jamuna River in
Ulipur Upazila. The findings underscored the complex and ever-evolving
character of geomorphological processes, thus highlighting their ongoing monitor-
ing and investigation to understand and manage them for the benefit of local com-
munity and environment. Exploring the intricate dynamics of riverbank erosion
and accretion along the Jamuna River, this study was designed with specific goals
in mind to analyze past patterns while anticipating future ones. Our analyses
directly support these goals, yielding knowledge that not only meets but surpasses
initial goals.

19.4.2 Assess historical spatiotemporal patterns of erosion and

accumulation
The findings of this study highlight an increase in riverbank erosion over the
study period (2003 22), which was accompanied by significant spatial variation
(Malak et al., 2021; Uddin et al., 2011). The initial objective was to perform an
exhaustive analysis of patterns of accumulation and erosion for over 20 years
using machine learning and geospatial technologies. With these methods, we
identified the patterns with incredible precision by highlighting areas with signifi-
cant loss or accumulation. Comparing these results to global landscape, such as
that of Mississippi and Yellow Rivers (Tomsett & Leyland, 2019), provides an
 19.4 Results and discussion 503

accurate depiction. Xu et al. (2020) discussed issues associated with managing

river dynamics that are affected by human and natural factors, validating our
methodology, while showing why universal erosion management strategies must
be reconsidered in an innovative fashion.

19.4.3 Prediction of future changes in accumulation and erosion

patterns
ANN methods of modeling were employed in this research to accurately predict
where changes may take place in order to educate environmental scientists,
decision-makers, and local communities on sustainable river management prac-
tices (Ahmed et al., 2024). Furthermore, scientifically backed approaches pro-
vided to communities will assist them in adjusting or decreasing agricultural
systems’ impacts on livelihoods as well as biodiversity (Rentier & Cammeraat,
2022). Identification and forecast of factors contributing to erosion enables
researchers to create measures designed to protect ecosystems, rivers, and nearby
communities against further erosive forces. Comparing erosion patterns along the
Jamuna River with those from other major river systems allows us to contextual-
ize our findings in a wider geomorphological framework and more thoroughly
study patterns of erosion. Geospatial and machine learning methodologies were
employed in our research to explore how global processes could be managed
effectively, offering Jamuna River residents new perspectives. Geospatial techni-
ques and machine learning were an integral component to meeting our goal of
employing modern methods to study and predict erosion (Nguyen, Chen, Lin, &
Seeboonruang, 2021), setting the bar high for future researchers. Our erosion
research on riverbanks set this bar very high. All research was intended to
increase knowledge about accumulation and erosion processes on riverbanks from
both local and global perspectives. Our findings not only met the stated objec-
tives, but also sparked global discussions on sustainable river management by
emphasizing technological advancement’s significant role in environmental
research (Tomsett & Leyland, 2019). With its innovative methodology, this study
offers both theoretical and practical information to aid river management profes-
sionals worldwide. Concerning our research findings on Jamuna River erosion
patterns, it is crucial that they are set in their proper geographical and scientific
context. While decreasing erosion rates and anticipated riverbank stabilization by
2042 are positive signs for geomorphology within an area, they also raise serious
concerns regarding current practices for water management due to their inability
to respond quickly enough to changes that impact the environment. Examining
Jamuna river for this study confirmed general findings and demonstrated its resil-
ience and adaptability systems. Effective management requires understanding
global as well as local influences. As one example, expected reductions in
erosion rates, accumulation rates, erosion rates, and natural drainage rates along
the Jamuna by 2042 may be attributable to positive local actions, such as
504 CHAPTER 19 Assessment of riverbank erosion and its prediction

embankments being built or land use laws being changed, climate change-driven
hydrological patterns shifting, as well as changes triggered by long-term sustain-
ability issues arising from climate change requiring further investigation or shifts
occurring over time. Research done here goes well beyond geomorphological
changes; erosion reduction could provide immediate socioeconomic advantages to
communities living along the Jamuna River, including better agricultural methods,
lower displacement rates, and greater water security akin to that seen on
European Rhine River (Siddik et al., 2017). Comparing our results to others
across various locations reveals that although river management is a worldwide
challenge, its solutions must take account of regional conditions (Ahmed et al.,
2024; Mallick, Bandyopadhyay, & Halder, 2023; Vianna et al., 2020). Utilizing
machine learning and geospatial methodologies as discussed during our research
provides us with an opportunity to develop predictive models, which could assist
with effective river-management strategy.

19.5 Limitations of the study

One major drawback of this research is its reliance on satellite images from 2003
to 2022 only; there is an absence of imagery for the year 2023. This gap in data
may introduce some uncertainty, particularly when attempting to project future
erosion trends to 2042. The absence of 2023 data may hinder the accuracy of pre-
dictions for that year.

19.6 Recommendations and practical implications

19.6.1 Advanced monitoring systems for early warning
This research seeks to facilitate the creation of complex monitoring alarm and
warning systems using predictive models. These systems alert local authorities
and communities about imminent erosion events or significant river dynamics
changes which require evacuation or strengthening riverbanks; it quickly trans-
forms research conducted to assess risks into practical tools to increase commu-
nity security as well as emergency measures.

19.6.2 Community engagement and education programs

Educational and community outreach initiatives must focus on fostering sustain-
able land usage and protecting riverbanks. To do so, these efforts could include
disseminating information regarding erosion causes and effects as well as natural
barriers such as vegetation covers to combat it actively by residents themselves.
Such an approach fosters both an awareness of their surroundings as well as
strengthening individual abilities to adapt and rebuild them more quickly.
 19.6 Recommendations and practical implications 505

19.6.3 Innovative erosion control technologies

Modern erosion control technologies, such as bioengineering techniques, should
be adopted to combine conventional engineering techniques with natural pro-
cesses. Bioengineering methods like installing vegetative buffers, building living
shorelines, or using geotextiles made from natural materials may offer alternatives
to rigid engineering solutions, while simultaneously stabilizing riverbanks,
increasing biodiversity, and creating habitats for wildlife in the area.

19.6.4 Water resource management and flood mitigation

strategies
The findings of this study will help to develop more complete strategies for water
resource management and flood prevention. Gaining an understanding of what
causes erosion of riverbanks can improve floodplain management efficiency and
facilitate the construction of barriers that work in harmony with natural processes
that govern river flow, such as creating barriers that resemble natural floodplain
barriers in harmony with their flow pattern. Taking this comprehensive approach
ensures that any methods used to control flooding will not inadvertently increase
erosion or interfere with ecosystem services that protect biodiversity.

19.6.5 Policy formulation and regulatory frameworks

Policy formulation and the creation of regulations will be facilitated with the
intention of decreasing human activities’ effects on riverbank erosion, such as
restrictions on mining sand, developing adjacent to riverbanks, or agricultural
operations that threaten stabilization efforts. The findings of this study could also
be used to create guidelines requiring erosion prediction models in development
planning procedures, thus ensuring decisions made regarding land use reflect the
long-term effects of river dynamics.

19.6.6 Cross-sectoral collaboration for integrated river basin

management
Cross-sectoral collaboration must be facilitated for the implementation of an inte-
grated river basin management method. By gathering stakeholders from different
industries, such as urban development, agriculture, water resources management,
and environment, to work on coordinated management methods of managing
riverbanks, using water efficiently as well as developing land in the basin, this
collaboration model ensures that erosion management efforts are consistent with
larger socioeconomic and environmental goals.
506 CHAPTER 19 Assessment of riverbank erosion and its prediction

19.7 Conclusions
This research explores the complex spatiotemporal dynamics of erosion along the
Jamuna River, in an effort to provide guidance for future actions. This study
employs geospatial methods to assess erosion patterns, while using an ANN
model to predict future events. Many interesting findings result from this
research. As predicted for 2042, an apparent expansion of the Jamuna River’s
spatial region can be expected due to the shifting geomorphological environment
that characterizes it. Study findings indicate that between 2003 and 2022 was the
peak period of Jamuna River erosion in its northeastern region. Erosion activity
was recorded across various directions, with the greatest frequency occurring
between 2013 and 2022 when covering over 4232.48 ha. By 2042, it is expected
that both erosion rates and accretion rates will have dramatically decreased to
reach only 65% of what they were in 2003. These findings demonstrate the com-
plex and dynamic patterns of accretion and erosion along the Jamuna River, mak-
ing significant contributions toward our understanding of this critical
environmental phenomenon. Findings, particularly related to areas not experienc-
ing spatial change, highlight the necessity of continuously monitoring river
dynamics and exercising effective management controls on them in order to
ensure sustainable development of this vital watercourse.

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