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FULFILLING ONE’S DESIRE TO STRENGTHEN
RELATIONS: RUSSIA-PAKISTAN
COOPERATION AFTER THE 9TH IGC
By
Gleb Makarevich
Russian Visiting Scholar
Centre for Strategic Perspectives (CSP), ISSI
Edited by
Dr Neelum Nigar
January 8, 2025
(Views expressed in the brief are those of the author, and do
not represent those of ISSI)
A New Page?
The late 2024 must have imbued the persons concerned with enthusiasm and
excitement – the 9th Session of the Russia-Pakistan Intergovernmental Commission
on Trade, Economic, Scientific and Technical Cooperation, hosted in Moscow on 2-4
December, produced so many promising statements that some analysts have
already considered that to be a critical milestone in bilateral relations.1
They could have grounds for that indeed – the discussed agenda encompassed such a wide range of
issues that one could start thinking over a new page in the history of interaction between Moscow
and Islamabad. The agenda included:
Energy cooperation (oil supplies on a regular basis and investments in Pakistani refineries);
Connectivity and logistics (Pakistan’s involvement in the INSTC and prospects of practical
engagements);
Industrial cooperation (prospects of Russian investments in revitalizing Karachi Steel Mills)
Cooperation on pharmaceuticals (localization of insulin production in Pakistan);
1 Zamir Ahmed Awan, “Pakistan and Russia Chart a New Course for Collaboration”, RIAC (Russian
International Affairs Council), published on December 6, 2024.
https://russiancouncil.ru/en/blogs/zamir-ahmed-awan/pakistan-and-russia-chart-a-new-course-for-
collaboration/
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IB Fulfilling One’s Desire to Strengthen Relations: Russia-Pakistan Cooperation after the 9th IGC January 8 , 2025
Trade cooperation (signed MoU between Moscow Expo Center and Trade Development
Authority of Pakistan); and
Cooperation in education (signed MoUs between Russian and Pakistani universities).2
These discussions could bring optimism to any political analyst, observing Russian relations
with the Global South, but for those concentrating on Russo-Pakistan ties they seem to be of much
more significance, given the current landscape of bilateral cooperation.
Better Late than Never
Russian policies towards South Asia have long been India-centered due to historical, political, and
economic reasons. Since the start of open confrontation with the West in 2014 we could see a
gradual transformation in Moscow’s attitudes words the subcontinent. It should be highlighted here
that the case is not about changing priorities (India is certain to stay as a Russian most privileged
strategic partner), but about comprehensiveness – Moscow is interested in developing ties with
Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka so as not to rely on India alone and have better representation
in the whole subcontinent.
One can witness a rising interest in Pakistan in all dimensions. Politically, Russian leadership wants to
cement ties with the fifth most-populous nation in the world, one of the Islamic world leaders, and
an important factor in the Global South.
Economically, it wants to explore new markets and diversify trade ties (so as not to depend primarily
on China, India, Türkiye, and UAE). And Russia-Pakistan economic cooperation in effect saw some
major successes - since 2014 the trade turnover increased from 450 million dollars to 1.1 billion
dollars in 20233. Energy cooperation saw contracts on constructing the Karachi-Lahore pipeline as
well as numerous tranches of oil supplies.
The security field is also of interest because Pakistan seems to be the best partner for cooperating
on the Afghan issue – the latter is of existential importance for Russia as there is always the risk of
2 “The 9th meeting of the Intergovernmental Commission on Cooperation between the Russian Federation
and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan was held”, Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, published on
December 4, 2024.
https://www.minenergo.gov.ru/?news-item=sostoyalos-9-e-zasedanie-mezhpravitelstvennoy-komissii-po-
sotrudnichestvu-mezhdu-rossiyskoy-federats
3 “The 9th meeting of the Intergovernmental Commission on Cooperation between the Russian Federation
and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan was held”, RusCable.ru, published on December 5, 2024.
https://www.ruscable.ru/news/2024/12/05/Sostoyalosy_9-e_zasedanie_Mezhpravitelystvennoj_ko/
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IB Fulfilling One’s Desire to Strengthen Relations: Russia-Pakistan Cooperation after the 9th IGC January 8 , 2025
instability spillover into the Central Asian republics. Afghan track in fact proved that Russia and
Pakistan could collaborate on security issues.
Nearing the Glass Ceiling
Despite all these achievements, several structural limitations are still in place. First, it concerns the
security field in general and defence cooperation in particular. There is a need for Moscow to think
twice before cooperating with Islamabad on any security issue since it could bring concerns to New
Delhi and raise unpleasant discussions within the Indo-Russian dialogue. Nevertheless, all the
existing formats on dealing with Afghanistan and counterterrorism (including Druzhba drills) should
be maintained and further facilitated.
Economically, limitations derive from little knowledge of markets (for both sides), difficulties in
payments, and lack of free financial resources. As a result, despite some achievements in numbers,
the Russia-Pakistan trade did not meet success in substance – so far; it lacks capital goods that could
elevate the partnership to a strategic level. Consequently, if the parties concerned wish to launch
any kind of project, this enterprise should be long-term, complementary in macroeconomic terms,
and, finally, certain to produce benefits for both sides.
Thus, with security concerns set aside for the time being, economic cooperation appears to be a
more viable avenue for strengthening Russia-Pakistan relations. The critical question remains
whether the proposed initiatives will yield tangible outcomes.
So Many Questions Ahead
Collaboration in the energy sector is likely to meet all the above-mentioned requirements – long-
term demand for oil and gas from Pakistani side is certain to grow further, it is fully complementary
as well as beneficial for both sides.
At the same time, one should remember that any protocol or MoU is not a contract. It is contracts
that we should analyze and make conclusions about any prospects for a breakthrough. To be
precise, one needs to know at least the price, planned volumes for supplies as well as payment
mechanisms. Moreover, it is still unclear how Pakistani refineries tend to handle Russian oil.
Proclaimed plans to invest into their repairing first delay materialization of regular supplies for
another period.
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IB Fulfilling One’s Desire to Strengthen Relations: Russia-Pakistan Cooperation after the 9th IGC January 8 , 2025
Nevertheless, even declared goals give hope for further development of Russia-Pakistan relations –
those objectives demonstrate that Moscow and Islamabad have finally touched upon something of a
strategic nature that could boost cooperation qualitatively rather than quantitively.
Conclusion
Hence, the 9th Session of the Russia-Pakistan Intergovernmental Commission on Trade, Economic,
Scientific, and Technical Cooperation laid the basis for Russia and Pakistan to take another step
towards genuinely substantive cooperation. Such pushes were of pressing need a long time ago
since the parties concerned approached a glass ceiling, limiting further development of bilateral
collaboration.
Successful implementation of the highlighted initiatives – primarily, in the energy sector – could be a
start for unveiling the vast potential of Russia-Pakistan ties that have been discussed for so long. The
realization of these plans is likely to lead Russia and Pakistan to the pathways of strategic
partnership..
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