Unit 1

7/7/2018 2
 Lecture 1

7/7/2018 3
Introduction to Engineering Statistics
Statistics is a science that helps us make
decisions and draw conclusions in the presence
of variability
For example, civil engineers working in the
transportation field are concerned about the capacity
of regional highway systems.
○ A typical problem would involve data on the number of
nonworking, home-based trips, the number of persons
per household, and the number of vehicles per
household
○ The objective would be to produce a trip-generation
model relating trips to the number of persons per
household and the number of vehicles per household
A statistical technique called regression analysis can
be used to construct this model.
7/7/2018 4
Probability models
Consider hospital emergency departments (EDs).
The process by which patients arrive at the ED is highly variable and
can depend on many factors (hour of the day and the day of the week,
etc. ).
The service process is also highly variable, depending on the types of
services that the patients require, the number of patients in the ED,
how the ED is staffed and organized, and the capacity of an ED.
Consequently, some patients experience long waiting times.
An important question is how long do patients wait, on average?
If waiting times become excessive, some patients will leave without
receiving treatment (LWOT). Patients who LWOT are a serious
problem, as they do not have their medical concerns addressed and
are at risk for further problems and complications.
Therefore, another important question is: What proportion of patients
LWOT from the ED?
These questions can be solved by employing probability models
to describe the ED, and from these models very precise
estimates of waiting times and the number of patients who
LWOT can be obtained.
The concepts of probability is powerful and contributes
extensively to solutions of many types of engineering problems
7/7/2018 5
The Engineering Method and Statistical Thinking
The engineering, or scientific, method is the approach to
formulating and solving problems of interest to society.
The steps in the engineering method are as follows:
1. Develop a clear and concise description of the problem.
2. Identify the important factors that affect this problem or that may
play a role in its solution.
3. Propose a model for the problem, using scientific or engineering
knowledge of the phenomenon being studied. State any limitations
or assumptions of the model.
4. Conduct appropriate experiments and collect data to test or
validate the tentative model or conclusions made in steps 2 and 3.
5. Refine the model on the basis of the observed data.
6. Manipulate the model to assist in developing a solution to the
problem.
7. Conduct an appropriate experiment to confirm that the proposed
solution to the problem is both effective and efficient.
8. Draw conclusions or make recommendations based on the
problem solution.

7/7/2018 6
 Notice that the engineering method features a strong interplay
between the problem, the factors that may influence its solution, a
model of the phenomenon, and experimentation to verify the
adequacy of the model and the proposed solution to the problem.
Steps 2–4 in Fig. are enclosed in a box, indicating that several
cycles or iterations of these steps may be required to obtain the
final solution.
Consequently, engineers must know how to efficiently plan
experiments, collect data, analyze and interpret the data, and
understand how the observed data are related to the model they
have proposed for the problem under study.

7/7/2018 7
Statistics is the Science of Data
The field of statistics deals with the collection,
presentation, analysis, and use of data to make
decisions, solve problems, and design products
and processes.
Because many aspects of engineering practice
involve working with data, obviously knowledge
of statistics is just as important to an engineer as
the other engineering sciences.
Statistical methods are used to help us describe
and understand variability.
Successive observations of a system or phenomenon
do not produce exactly the same result.
7/7/2018 8
 For example, consider the gasoline mileage performance of your car.
Do you always get exactly the same mileage performance on every tank of fuel?
Of course, not—in fact, sometimes the mileage performance varies considerably.
This observed variability in gasoline mileage depends on many factors
(sources of variability).
Statistics provides a framework for describing this variability and for
learning about which potential sources of variability are the most
important or have the greatest impact.
The gasoline mileage can be considered to be a random variable.
A convenient way to think of a random variable, say X, that represents a
measurement is by using the model:

○ Where  is a constant and  is a random disturbance.

A set of measurements in general from a data which statically called
population
(for example gasoline mileage performance for a number of cars of the
same type and model).
A part of this population such as the gasoline mileage performance for
one car is referred to as the sample.
The reasoning or conclusion that is derived from the experiment is
called statistical inference.
7/7/2018 9
Collecting Engineering Data
Basic Principles
Three basic methods of collecting data
A retrospective study using historical data
An observational study
A designed experiment
An effective data-collection procedure can
greatly simplify the analysis and lead to
improved understanding of the population or
process that is being studied.
Next, some examples of these data-collection
methods will be considered.

7/7/2018 10
Retrospective Study
A retrospective study would use either all or a sample
of the historical process data archived over some
period.
The study objective might be to discover the relationships.
Example: acetone distillation column
The concentration of acetone in the distillate or
output product stream is an important variable.
Factors that may affect the distillate are the reboil
temperature, the condensate temperature, and the
reflux rate. Production personnel obtain and archive
the following records:
The concentration of acetone in an hourly test sample of
output product
The reboil temperature log, which is a plot of the reboil
temperature over time
The condenser temperature controller log
The nominal reflux rate each hour (usually kept constant)
7/7/2018 11
 The study objective might be to discover the
relationships among the two temperatures
and the reflux rate on the acetone
concentration in the output product stream.
However, this type of study presents some
problems, which lead to inability to achieve
the objective of the study.
From this, it is seen that a retrospective study
may involve a lot of data, but those data may
contain relatively little useful information
about the problem.
7/7/2018 12
Observational Study
In an observational study, the engineer observes
the process or population, disturbing it as little
as possible, and records the quantities of
interest.
These studies are usually conducted for a
relatively short time period.
Generally, an observational study tends to solve
some of the problems in retrospective study
above and goes a long way toward obtaining
accurate and reliable data.
However, observational studies may not help
resolve some other problems of the
retrospective studies.
7/7/2018 13
Designed Experiments
In a designed experiment, the engineer
Makes deliberate or purposeful changes in the controllable
variables of the system or process
Observes the resulting system output data,
Makes an inference or decision about which variables are
responsible for the observed changes in output performance.
Much of what we know in the engineering and physical-
chemical sciences is developed through testing or
experimentation.
Often engineers work in problem areas in which no scientific or
engineering theory is directly or completely applicable
Experimentation and observation of the resulting data constitute
the only way that the problem can be solved.
If a theory is applicable, it is almost always necessary to
conduct tests or experiments to confirm that the theory is
indeed operative in the situation or environment in which it
is being applied.
This leads to the concept of statistical hypothesis testing
which will be given later in this course.
7/7/2018 14
Probability and Probability Models
Statistical Inference
It was mentioned that decisions often need to be based on
measurements from only a subset of objects selected in a
sample. This process of reasoning from a sample of objects
to conclusions for a population of objects was referred to as
statistical inference.
Example:
Consider a sample of three wafers selected from a larger
production lot of wafers in semiconductor manufacturing.
To make good decisions, an analysis of how well a sample
represents a population is clearly necessary.
If the lot contains defective wafers, how well will the sample detect
this? How can we quantify the criterion to “detect well”?
How can we quantify the risks of decisions based on samples?
Furthermore, how should samples be selected to provide good
decisions—ones with acceptable risks?
7/7/2018 15
 Probability models help quantify the risks involved in
statistical inference, that is, the risks involved in decisions
made every day.
Suppose a production lot contains 25 wafers.
If all the wafers are defective or all are good, clearly any sample
will generate all defective or all good wafers, respectively.
If only one wafer in the lot is defective, then a sample might or
might not detect (include) the wafer.
A probability model, along with a method to select the
sample, can be used to quantify the risks that the defective
wafer is or is not detected.
Based on this analysis, the size of the sample might be
increased (or decreased).
Probability model provides valuable, quantitative
information regarding any decision about lot quality based
on the sample

7/7/2018 16