Faculty of Computing

DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE

STA 111:Descriptive Statistics 3 Units C; LH 45
Lecture 4: PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

1 Random Variable
Random variable is a variable that takes on different valuesdetermined by chance.
For a given sample space S of some experiment, a random variable (rv) is any rule that
associates a number with each outcome in a sample space S. In mathematical language, a
random variable is a function whose domain is the sample space and whose range is the set of
real numbers.
There are two types of random variables, qualitative (or categorical) and quantitative

I Qualitative Random Variable: The possible values of a qualitative random variable vary
in kind but not in numerical degree. They are also called categorical variables. Examples
of categorical variables are race, sex, age group, and educational level.

II Quantitative Random Variable: A quantitative random variable represents a numerical

value. There are two types of quantitative random variables - Discrete random variable
and continuous random variable.

(a) Discrete Random Variable When the random variable can assume only a countable,
sometimes infinite, number of values.
(b) Continuous Random Variable When the random variable can assume uncountable
number of values in a line interval. It is a set of possible values that consists
either of all numbers in a single interval on the number line (possibly infinite in
extent, e.g., from (− inf to + inf) or all numbers in a disjoint union of such intervals
(e.g.,[0, 10] ∪ [20, 30]).

Examples of probability distributions for quantitative variables include

ˆ number of chicken eggs in a nest

ˆ number of times a university student attends a class
ˆ shoe size
ˆ weight of a student
ˆ volume of water
ˆ the number of tosses to get the first Head when flipping a fair coin.
ˆ Number of children born in State College this year
ˆ Height of a STAT 500 student

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 ˆ The weight of a chocolate chip cookie

Can you identify which example above is either a qualitative or quantitative random variable?

2 Sample Space
An experiment is any activity or process whose outcome is subject to uncertainty. Probabilities
arise when one considers and weighs possible results of some experiment.
The sample space of an experiment, denoted by S, is the set of all possible outcomes of
that experiment. Some results are more likely than others. An experiment may be as simple
as a coin toss, or as complex as starting a new business.
Example 1. An example of such an experiment is checking the gender of a class. The sample
space for this experiment can be abbreviated as S = F, M , where F refers to female and M
refers to male. d

Example 2. An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then flipping it a second time if
a head occurs. If a tail occurs on the first flip, then a die is tossed once. To list the elements
of the sample space providing the most information, we construct the tree diagram of Figure
1. The various paths along the branches of the tree give the distinct sample points. Starting
with the top left branch and moving to the right along the first path, we get the sample point
HH, indicating the possibility that heads occurs on two successive flips of the coin. Likewise,
the sample point T3 indicates the possibility that the coin will show a tail followed by a 3 on
the toss of the die. By proceeding along all paths, we see that the sample space is

S = HH, HT, T 1, T 2, T 3, T 4, T 5, T 6.

Example 3. If we examine three different classes sequentially, and document the result of
each examination, then an outcome of the whole experiment is any sequence of F’s and M’s of
length 3, so

S = {F F F, F F M, F M F, F M M, M F F, M F M, M M F, M M M }.

3 Events
While conducting an experiment, we may want to know the occurrence of not only individual
outcomes of S but also in various occurrences in the sample space. An event is a subset
(collection) of outcomes contained in a sample space. A simple event contains only one
outcome while a compound event consists of more one outcome.

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 Figure 1: Tree diagram for Example

4 Probability
The Probability of an event is a likelihood of the occurrence of an event resulting from such
a statistical experiment. P (A) is evaluated by a set of real numbers ranging from 0 to 1. To
every point in the sample space we assign a probability such that the sum of all probabilities
is 1. To find the probability of an event A, we sum all the probabilities assigned to the sample
points in A. This sum is called the probability of A and is denoted by P (A). The probability
P (A) of an event A is the sum of the weights of all sample points in A. Therefore
For any event A

P (A) ≥ 0

,
P (S) = 1

, if A1 , A2 , A3 , . . . is an infinite collection of disjoint events, then

P (A1 ∪ A2 ∪ A3 , ∪ . . . )

P (∅)

, where ∅ is the null event (the event containing no outcomes whatsoever).

Example 1. A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least 1 head occurs?

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Solution: The sample space for this experiment is

S = HH, HT, T H, T T

. If A represents the event of at least 1 head occurring, then

P (A) = HH, HT, T H

1 1 1 3
and P (A) = + + = .
4 4 4 4

Example 2. A statistics class for computer scientists consists of 25 computer science, 10

software engineering, 10 information technology, and 8 cyber security students. If a person is
randomly selected by the teacher to answer a question, find the probability that the student
chosen is (a) a computer science major and (b) an information technology or a cyber security
major.

Solution: Denoted by C, S, I, and CY the students majoring in computer science, software

engineering, information technology, and cyber security, respectively. The total number of
students in the class is 53, all of whom are equally likely to be selected.
(a) Since 25 of the 53 students are majoring in computer science, the prob- ability of event
C, selecting an computer science major at random, is
25
P (C) =
53
.

(b) Since 18 of the 53 students are information technology or cyber security majors, it follows
that
18
P (I ∪ CY ) =
53

4.1 Additive Rules

If A and B are two events, then

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)

If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)

Also, Note first that A ∪ B can be decomposed into two disjoint events, A and B ∩ A′ . Fur-
thermore, B itself is the union of the two disjoint events A ∩ B and ′ A ∩ B. So

P (B) = P (A ∩ B) + P (A′ ∩ B)

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Thus,

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B ∩ A′ ) = P (A) + [P (B) − P (A ∩ B)] = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)

Example 3. Ishaq is going to graduate from a computer science department in a university

by the end of the semester. After being interviewed at two companies he applied to, he assesses
that his probability of getting an offer from company A is 0.8, and his probability of getting
an offer from company B is 0.6. If he believes that the probability that he will get offers from
both companies is 0.5, what is the probability that he will get at least one offer from these two
companies?

Solution: Using additive rule, we have

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B) = 0.8 + 0.6 − 0.5 = 0.9

Example 4. What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair of fair dice is
tossed?

Solution: Let A be the event that 7 occurs and B the event that 11 comes up. Now, a total of
7 occurs for 6 of the 36 sample points, and a total of 11 occurs for only 2 of the sample points.
Since all sample points are equally likely, we have P (A) = 1/6 and P (B) = 1/18. The events
A and B are mutually exclusive, since a total of 7 and 11 cannot both occur on the same toss.
Therefore,

1 1
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) = +
6 18
This result could also have been obtained by counting the total number of points for the
event A ∪ B, namely 8, and writing

n 8 2
P (A ∪ B) = = =
N 36 9
.

Example 5. In a certain residential area, 60% of all households get Internet service from
MTN, 80% get television service from that company, and 50% get both services from the same
company. If a household is randomly selected, (a)what is the probability that it gets at least
one of these two services from MTN, and (b)what is the probability that it gets exactly one of
these services from the company?

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Solution: Let A = gets Internet Service and B = gets TV service. Then P (A) = 0.6 and
P (B) = 0.8 and P (A ∩ B) = 0.5 . Therefore,
(a) P(subscribes to at least one of these two services )

= P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B) = 0.6 + 0.8 − 0.5 = 0.9

(b) (i) P(subscribes to only TV services ) = [(not Internet and TV)] But we know that

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (A′ ∩ B)

=
0.9 = 0.6 + P (A′ ∩ B)

So
P (A′ ∩ B)0.9 − 0.6 = 0.3

Similarly P(subscribes to only Internet services ) = [(Internet and not TV)] =

P (A ∩ B ′ ) = P (A ∪ B) − P (B) = 0.1

5 Exercises
Sample Space

1. List the elements of each of the following sample spaces:

(a) the set of integers between 1 and 50 divisible by 8;
(b) the set S = x|x2 + 4x − 5 = 0;
(c) the set of outcomes when a coin is tossed until a tail or three heads appear;
(d) the set S = x|x is a continent;
(e) the set S = x|2x − 4 ≥ 0 and x < 1.

Solution:

2. Two jurors are selected from 4 alternates to serve at a murder trial. Using the notation
A1A3 for example, to denote the simple event that alternates 1 and 3 are selected, list the
6 elements of the sample space S.

Solution:

3. Which of the following events are equal?

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 (a) A = 1, 3;
(b) B = x|xis a number on a die;
(c) C = x|x2 − 4x + 3 = 0;
(d) D = x|x is the number of heads when six coins are tossed.

Solution:

4. If S = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and A = 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, B = 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, C = 2, 3, 4, 5, and D =
1, 6, 7, list the elements of the sets corresponding to the following events:
(a) A ∪ C;
(b) A ∩ B;
(c) C ′ ;
(d) (C ∩ D) ∪ B;
(e) (S ∩ C)′ ;
(f) (A ∩ C ∩ D′ ).

5. If S = x|0 < x < 12, M = x|1 < x < 9, and N = x|0 < x < 5, find
(a) M ∪ N ;
(b) M ∩ N ;
(c) M ′ ∩ N ′ ;

6. Suppose that vehicles taking a particular free way exit can turn right (R), left (L), or go
straight (S). Consider observing the direction for each of three successive vehicles.
(a) List all outcomes in the event A that all three vehicles go in the same direction.
(b) List all outcomes in the event B that all three vehicles take different directions.
(c) List all outcomes in the event C that exactly two of the vehicles turn right.
(d) List all outcomes in the event D that exactly two of the vehicles go in the same
direction.
(e) List all outcomes in D′ , C ∪ D, and C ∩ D.

6 Probability Distribution
In Probability Distribution, A Random Variable’s outcome is uncertain. Here, the outcome’s
observation is known as Realization. It is a Function that maps Sample Space into a Real
number space, known as State Space. They can be Discrete or Continuous. Probability
Distribution is basically the set of all possible outcomes of any random experiment or event.

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7 Types of Random Variables in Probability Distribu-
tion
There are following two types of

ˆ Discrete Random Variables

ˆ Continuous Random Variables

7.1 Discrete Random Variables in Probability Distribution

A discrete random variable assumes each of its values with a certain probability. It can only
take a finite number of values.
Example 1. 1. Let X = {sum of the outcomes when two dice are rolled}. Here, X can only
take values like 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. . . .10, 11, 12.
2. let X = {Number of Heads in 100 coin tosses}. Here, X can take only integer values from
[0,100].

7.2 Continuous Random Variables in Probability Distribution

A Continuous Random Variable can take infinite values in a continuous domain. Let’s see an
example of a dart game.
Suppose, we have a dart game in which we throw a dart where the dart can fall anywhere
between [-1,1] on the x-axis. So if we define our random variable as the x-coordinate of the
position of the dart, X can take any value from [-1,1]. There are infinitely many possible values
that X can take. (X = {0.1, 0.001, 0.01, 1,2, 2.112121 . . . . and so on}.

8 Probability Distribution of a Random Variable

The probability distribution or probability mass function (pmf) of X says how the total prob-
ability of 1 is distributed among (allocated to) the various possible X values. Suppose, for
example your company purchased four mobile phones, and let X be the number among these
that require service during the warranty period. Possible values of X are 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4. The
probability distribution will tell us how the value 1 is subdivided among these five possible
values.
The set of ordered pairs (x, f (x)) is a probability function, probability mass function,
or probability distribution of the discrete random variable X if, for each possible outcome
x,

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 I f (x) ≥ 0
P
II x f (x) = 1

III P (X = x) = f (x)

Example 1. We draw two cards successively with replacement from a well-shuffled deck of
52 cards. Find the probability distribution of finding aces.

Solution: Let’s define a random variable “X”, which means number of aces. So since we are
only drawing two cards from the deck, X can only take three values: 0, 1 and 2. We also
know that, we are drawing cards with replacement which means that the two draws can be
considered as an independent experiments.
P(X=0) = P(both cards are non-aces)
=P(non-ace) × P(non-ace)
48 48
= 52 × 52
144
= 159

P(X=1) =P(one of the cards in ace) = P(non-ace and then ace)+P(ace and then non-ace)
=P(non-ace) × P(ace) + P(ace) × P(non-ace)
48 4 4 48 24
= 52
× 52
+ 52
× 52
= 169

P(X=2) = P(Both the cards are aces)

=P(ace) × P(ace)

Now we have probabilities for each value of random variable. Since it is discrete, we can
make a table to represent this distribution. The table is given below.

x 0 1 2
144 24 1
p(X = x) 169 169 169

Example 2. The computer science department has a lab with six computers reserved for
level 100 students. Let X be the number of these computers that are in use a particular time
of the day. Suppose that the probability distribution of X is given in the following table; the
first row of the table lists the possible X values and the second row gives the probability of
each such value.

x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
p(x) 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10

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What is the probability that atmost two computers are in use?

Solution: So the probability that at most two computers are in use is

P (X ≤ 2) = P (X = 0 or 1 or 2) = p(0) + p(1) + p(2) = 0.05 + 0.10 + 0.15 = 0.30

Since the event that at least 3 computers are in use is complementary to at most 2 computers
are in use,
P (X ≥ 3) = 1 − P (X ≤ 2) = 1 − 0.30 = 0.70.

which can of course also be obtained by adding together probabilities for the values, 3, 4, 5,
and 6. the probability that between 2 and 5 computers inclusive are in use is

P (2 ≤ X ≤ 5) = P (X = 2 or 3 or 4 or 5) = 0.15 + 025 + 0.20 + 0.15 = 0.75

Example 3. A shipment of 20 similar laptop computers to a retail outlet contains 3 that are
defective. If a school makes a random purchase of 2 of these computers, find the probability
distribution for the number of defectives.

Solution:
Let X be a random variable whose values xare the possible numbers of defective computers
purchased by the school. Then x can only take the numbers 0, 1, and 2 now. Then
3 17 3 17 3 17







68 51 3
f (0) = P (X = 0) = 0 20
2 = , P (X = 1) = 1 20
1 = , P (X = 2) = 2 20
0 =
2
95 2
190 2
190

Thus the probability distribution X is

x 0 1 2
68 51 3
f (x)
95 190 190

9 Probability Distribution Formulas

The various formulas under Probability Distribution are tabulated below:

Types of Distribution Formula

Binomial Distribution P (X) =n Ck

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9.1 Cummulative Distribution Function
The cumulative distribution function F (x) of a discrete random variable X with probability
distribution f (x)
X
F (x) = P (X ≤ x) = f (t),
t≤x
for − inf < x < inf
Example 1. A stockroom clerk returns three safety helmets at random to three steel mill
employees who had previously checked them. If Smith, Jones, and Brown, in that order, receive
one of the three hats, list the sample points for the possible orders of returning the helmets,
and find the value m of the random variable M that represents the number of correct matches.

Solution: For the random variable M , the number of correct matches is

1 1 5
F (2) = P (M ≤ 2) = f (0) + f (1) = + =
3 2 6
. The cumulative distribution function of M is



 0 for m < 0,


 1 for

0 ≤ m < 1,
F (m) = 3 (1)
5


 6
for 1 ≤ m < 3,


m ≥ 3.

1 for

Example 2. If a car agency sells 50% of its inventory of a certain foreign car equipped with
side airbags, find the formula for the probability distribution function of the number of cars
with side airbags among the next 4 cars sold by the agency.

Solution: Since the probability of selling an automobile with side airbags is 0.5, the 24 = 16
points in the sample space are equally likely to occur. Therefore, the denominator for all
probabilities, and also for our function, is 16. To obtain the number of ways of selling 3 cars
with side airbags, we need to consider the number of ways of partitioning 4 outcomes into two
cells, with 3 cars with side airbags assigned to one cell and the model without side airbags
assigned to the other. This can be done in 43 = 4 ways.

In general, the event of selling x models with side airbags and 4 − x models without side
airbags can occur in x4 where where x can be 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4. Thus the probability distribution


 
1 4
f (x) =
16 x
, for x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4.

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10 Expected Values
Let X be a discrete RV with set of posssible values D and pmf p(x). The expected value or
mean value of X, denoted by E(X) or µX or just µ, is
X
E(X) = µX = x · p(x)
x∈D

. µ is also referred to as the population mean.

Just after birth, each newborn child is rated on a scale called the Apgar scale. The possible
ratings are0, 1, ..., 10, with the child’s rating determined by color, muscle tone, respiratory
effort, heartbeat, and reflex irritability (the best possible score is 10). Let X be the Apgar
score of a randomly selected child born at a certain hospital during the next year, an suppose
that the pmf of X is

x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
p(x) 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.02 0.04 0.18 0.37 0.25 0.12 0.01
Then the mean value of X is

E(X) = µ = 0(0.002) + 1(0.001) + 2(0.002) + . . . 8(0.25) + 9(0.12) + 10(0.01) = 7.15

10.1 Bernoulli Random Variable

The random variable for which 0 and 1 are chosen to describe the two possible values is called
a Bernoulli random variable. Any random variable whose only possible values are 0 and
1 is called a Bernoulli random variable, its distribution is Bernoulli distribution, and any
experiment with a binary outcome is called a Bernoulli trial. Good or defective components,
parts that pass or fail tests, transmitted or lost signals, working or malfunctioning hardware,
benign or malicious attachments, sites that contain or do not contain a keyword, girls and
boys, heads and tails, and so on, are examples of Bernoulli trials. All these experiments fit
the same Bernoulli model, where we shall use generic names for the two outcomes: “successes”
and “failures.” These are nothing but commonly used generic names; in fact, successes do not
have to be good, and failures do not have to be bad.
A Bernoulli experiment only has two possible outcomes, ’success’ and ’failure’, and the
probabilities of ’success’ and ’failure’ are p, and 1 - p, respectively. Or equivalently the size of
the sample space for any Bernoulli experiment is two.
A Bernoulli random variable X associated with a particular Bernoulli experiment with
success probability p, and failure probability of 1-p is defined as follows

x p(x)
1 p
0 1−p

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 The probability mass function f of this distribution is

1 k = 1,
f (k; p) = (2)
0 k = 0

or equivalently
f (k; p) = pk (1 − p)1−k for k ∈ {0, 1}
If P (1) = p is the probability of a success, then P (0) = q = 1 − p is the probability of a
failure.
So let X = 1 if a randomly selected student passes a test and X = 0 otherwise. Then X is
a Bernoulli rv with pmf p(1) = p and p(0) = 1 − p, from which E(X) = 0 · p(0) + 1 · p(1) =
0(1 − p) + 1(p) = p. That is, the expected value of X is just the probability that X takes on
the value 1.
So, 
p(1 − p)x−1 x = 1, 2, 3, . . .
p(x) = (3)
0 otherwise
We can then compute the expectation and variance as

X
E(X) = P (x) = (0)(1 − p) + (1)(p) = p
x
X
V ar(X) = (x − p)2 P (x) = (0 − p)2 (1 − p) + (1 − p)2 p
x

= p(1 − p)(p + 1 − p) = p(1 − p)

Example 1. Tossing a fair coin: is a Bernoulli experiment if we associate head with

success, and tail with failure, each of the corresponding probabilities is 0.5.
Let X be the number of heads you get. Then xis a Bernoulli random variable

x p(x)
1 0.5
0 0.5

Example 2. Randomly select an email from your account: is a Bernoulli experiment if we

associate spam with success with probability 0.6, and non-spam with failure with probability
0.4. Let x be the number of spams you get. Then x is a Bernoulli random variable:

x p(x)
1 0.6
0 0.4

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11 Binomial Probability Distribution
An experiment often consists of repeated trials, each with two possible outcomes that may be
labeled success or failure. We may choose to define either outcome as a success. The process
is referred to as a Bernoulli process. Each trial is called a Bernoulli trial.

11.1 Bernoulli Process

Strictly speaking, the Bernoulli process must possess the following properties:

ˆ The experiment consists of repeated trials.

ˆ Each trial results in an outcome that may be classified as a success or a failure.

ˆ The probability of success, denoted by p, remains constant from trial to trial.

ˆ The repeated trials are independent.

Consider the set of Bernoulli trials where three items are selected at random from a man-
ufacturing process, inspected, and classified as defective or non-defective. A defective item is
designated a success. The number of successes is a random variable X assuming integral values
from 0 through 3. The eight possible outcomes and the corresponding values of X are

Outcome NNN NDN NND DNN NDD DND DDN DDD

x 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3
Similar calculations give the probabilities for the other possible outcomes. The probability
distribution of X is therefore
x 0 1 2 3
27 27 9 1
f (x) 64 64 64 64

The number X of successes in n Bernoulli trials is called a binomial random variable.

The probability distribution of this discrete random variable is called the binomial distribu-
tion, and its values will be denoted by b(x; n, p) since they depend on the number of trials and
the probability of a success on a given trial. Thus, for the probability distribution of X, the
number of defectives is

1 9
P (X = 2) = F (2) = b(2; 3, ) =
4 64
A Bernoulli trial can result in a success with probability p and a failure with probability
q = 1 − p. Then the probability distribution of the binomial random variable X, the number
of successes inn independent trials, is
 
n x n−x
b(x; n, p) = p q , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n.
x

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where
n = Total number of trials
p = Probability of success
1 − p = Probability of failure
n − x = Number of failure in n− trials
To find the probability of x success in n trials, the only values we need are that of n and p.
For X ∼ Bin(n, p), the cdf will be denoted by
B(x; n, p) = P (X ≤ x) = xy=0 b(y; n, p) x = 0, 1, ..., n
P

11.2 Properties of Binomial Distribution

Mean E(x) = µ = np
Variance σ 2 = npq; q =1−p
√
Standard deviation σ = npq

Example 1. Observation over a long period of time has shown that a particular sales man
cam a sale on a single contact withe probability of 20%. Suppose the same person contacts
four prospects, answer the following questions.
(a) What is the probability that exactly 2 prospects purchase the product?

(b) What is the probability that at least 2 prospects purchase the product?

(c) What is the probability that all prospects purchase the product?

(d) What is the expected value of the prospects that would purchase the product?

Solution: Let X denote the number of prospects: x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 .

4
(0.2)x (0.8)4−x


Let p denote the probability of purchase (success) = 0.2.
 Hence b(x; 4, 0.2) = x
4!
(a) P (X = 2) = b (2; 4, 0.2) = 42 (0.2)2 (0.8)4−2 =


(0.24 ) (0.82 ) = 0.1536
2!(4 − 2)!
(b) P (X ≥ 2) = P (X = 2) + P (X = 3) + P (X = 4) = b (2; 4, 0.2) + b (3; 4, 0.2) + b (4; 4, 0.2)
0.1536 + 0.0256 + 0.0016 Or for simplification you can also do this 1 − P (X ≤ 1) =
1 − (b (0; 4, 0.2) + b (1; 4, 0.2))

(c) P (X = 4) = b (4; 4, 0.2) = 0.0016

(d) Expected Value = np =

Example 2. The probability that a certain kind of component will survive a shock test is
3/4. Find the probability that exactly 2 of the next 4 components tested survive?

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Solution: Assuming that the tests are independent and p = 3/4 for each of the 4 tests, we
obtain      2  2   2
3 4 3 1 4! 3 27
b 2; 4, = = 4
=
4 2 4 4 2!2! 4 128

Example 3. The probability that a patient recovers from a rare blood disease is 0.4. If 15
people are known to have contracted this disease, what is the probability that
(a) at least 10 survive,

(b) from 3 to 8 survive,

(c) exactly 5 survive?

Solution:
P9
(a) P (X ≥ 10) = 1 − P (X < 10) = 1 − x=0 b(x; 15, 0.4) = 1 − 0.9662 = 0.0338
P8
(b) P (3 ≤ X ≤ 8) = x=3 b(x; 15, 0.4) = b(3; 15, 0.4)+b(4; 15, 0.4)+b(5; 15, 0.4)+b(6; 15, 0.4)+
b(7; 15, 0.4) + b(8; 15, 0.4)

(c)

Example 4. It is estimated that 40 percent of investors invested in high-tech stocks, let us

choose 10 investors, what is the probability that
(a) 4 of them have invested in high-tech stocks?

(b) no more than 7 of them have invested in high-tech stocks?

(c) What is the variance of the investors who would have invested in high-tech stocks?

Solution:
(a) P (X = 4) = b(4; 10, 0.4)
P7
(b) P (X ≤ 7) = x=0 b(x; 10, 0.4) = b(0; 10, 0.4) + b(1; 10, 0.4) + b(2; 10, 0.4) + b(3; 10, 0.4) +
b(4; 10, 0.4) + b(5; 10, 0.4) + b(6; 10, 0.4 + b(7; 10, 0.4 For the last question, we can also
use the complement to simplify the calculation: P (X ≤ 7) = 1 − P (X ≥ 8) = 1 −
P9
x=8 b(x; 10, 0.4) = 1 − (b(8; 10, 0.4) + b(9; 10, 0.4))

(c)

(d)

Example 5. Compute the following binomial probabilities directly from the formula for
b(x; n, p)

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(a) b(3; 8, .35)

(b) b(5; 8, .6)

(c) (3 ≤ X ≤ 5) when n = 7 and p = 0.6

(d) d.P (1 ≤ X) when n = 9 and p = .1

Example 6. An exciting computer game is released. Sixty percent of players complete all
the levels. Thirty percent of them will then buy an advanced version of the game. Among 15
users, what is the expected number of people who will buy the advanced version? What is the
probability that at least two people will buy it?

Solution: Let x be the number of people (successes), among the mentioned 15 users (trials),
who will buy the advanced version of the game. It has Binomial distribution with n = 15 trials
and the probability of success
p = P{buy advanced}
= P{buy advanced—complete all levels}P{complete all levels}
= (0.30)(0.60)= 0.18
Then we have
E(X) = np = (15)(0.8) = 2.7

and
P {X ≥ 2} = 1 − P (0) − P (1) = 1 − (1 − p)n − np(1 − p)n−1 = 0.7813

Example 7. Determine if the following situations suggest a random variable with a binomial
distribution:

I The number of questions correct if one randomly guesses on a quiz of 20 multiple choice
questions where each question has 4 possible answers

II The number of people with blue eyes in a group of 10 people drawn from a room of 30
people without replacement.

III The number of bird chirps one can hear in a day if the average number of chirps per hour
is 15.

IV The number of heads seen in 30 flips of a coin

V The number of each of 3 species of flowers present in a collection of 100 flowers.

VI The number of rolls of two dice that result in a prime total if the dice are rolled 50 times.

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 VII The number of 400 subjects taking Atorvastatin that indicated they experienced a headache
the same day they first took this drug.

Solution:

I Yes, this suggests a random variable with a binomial distribution

II No. The ”trials” (the people drawn from the room and tested if they have blue eyes
or not) are not independent. As people with blue eyes are drawn from the room, the
probability the next person drawn from the room has blue eyes decreases

III No. There is no upper limit on how many chirps one could hear. In a binomial situation,
the maximum number of successes is limited by the fixed number of trials.

IV Yes, this suggests a random variable with a binomial distribution

V No. There are more than two outcomes. If one species could be the ”success” and another
be ”failure”, what would the third species be?

VI Yes, this suggests a random variable with a binomial distribution

VII Yes, this suggests a random variable with a binomial distribution

Example 8. For each random variable below that follows a binomial distribution corre-
sponding to the given number of trials n, and probability of success p, find the probability of
seeing x successes.

I n=12, p=3/4, x=10

II n=9, p=0.35, x=2

III n=20, p=0.15, x=4

IV n=15, p=1/3, x=13

Solution:
In each, use P (x) = (nCx)px q n−x , yielding (approximately):

I 0.2323

II 0.2162

III 0.1821

IV 0.00002927

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Example 9. About 8% of males are colorblind. A researcher needs three colorblind men for
an experiment and begins checking potential subjects. What is the probability that she finds
three or more colorblind men in the first nine she examines?

Solution: Binomial. P(3)+P(4)+ ... +P(9)=1 -(P(0)+P(1)+P(2))

where n=9,p=0.08. Thus, approximately 0.0298

Example 10. Find the mean and standard deviation of a random variable following a
binomial distribution corresponding to 50 trials each with a probability of success equal to 0.2.

Solution: n=50,p=0.2,q=0.8, so mean is /mu = np =10, while standard deviation is σ =

√
npq = 2.8284

12 Geometric Distribution
Again, consider a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials. Each trial results in a “success” or
a “failure.”
The number of Bernoulli trials needed to get the first success has Geometric distribution.
Consider a Bernoulli experiment, that is, a random experiment having two possible out-
comes: either success or failure.
We repeat the experiment until we get the first success, and then we count the number X
of failures that we faced prior to recording the success.
Since the experiments are random, X is a random variable.
If the repetitions of the experiment are independent of each other, then the distribution of
X, is called geometric distribution.

Example 1. If we toss a coin until we obtain head, the number of tails before the first head
has a geometric distribution.

Example 2.

I A search engine goes through a list of sites looking for a given key phrase. Suppose the
search terminates as soon as the key phrase is found. The number of sites visited is
Geometric.

II A hiring manager interviews candidates, one by one, to fill a vacancy. The number of
candidates interviewed until one candidate receives an offer has Geometric distribution.

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Geometric random variables can take any integer value from 1 to infinity, because one needs
at least 1 trial to have the first success, and the number of trials needed is not limited by any
specific number. (For example, there is no guarantee that among the first 10 coin tosses there
will be at least one head.) The only parameter is p, the probability of a “success.”
Geometric probability mass function has the form

P (x) = P {the 1st success occurs on the x-the trial} = (1 − p)x−1 p, x = 1, 2, ...

which is the probability of (x − 1) failures followed by one success. Here, there is no number
of combinations in this formula because only one outcome has the first success coming on the
x − th trial.

This is the first time we see an unbounded random variable, that is, with no upper bound.
Variable X can take any positive integer value, from 1 to ∞. It is insightful to check whether
P
x P (x) = 1, as it should hold for all pmf. Indeed,

∞
X X (1 − 0)0
P (x) = (1 − p)x−1 p = p=1
x x=1
1 − (1 − p)

, where we noticed that the sum on the left is a geometric series that gave its name to Geometric
distribution.
Finally, Geometric distribution has expectation µ = 1/p and variance σ 2 = (1 − p)/p2 . For
Geometric distribution, we can say

p = Probability of success
P(x) = (1 − p)x−1 p, x = 1, 2, ....
1 1−p
E(X) = p
V ar(X) = p2

Example 3. In order to calculate the probability of a person rolling a 3 on the fifth roll (and
not earlier) of a standard six-sided die, n = 5 (the fifth roll) and p = 1/6 (the probability of
getting each number on a six-sided die). Therefore:

P (X = 5) = (1 − 1/6)(5−1) · (1/6) = 0.08038

The probability of rolling a 3 on the fifth roll (and not before that) of a six-sided die is thus
0.08038. The expected value in this case is 6, which means that a person can be expected to
roll a 3 on the sixth roll using the die:

E(X) = 1/1/6 = 6

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 A geometric distribution can also describe the probability of a person rolling a 3 for the
first time in a sequence of rolls, as in the chart, which shows the probabilities from the first
roll to the 25th.
To calculate the probability that a person will fail to roll a 3 on five rolls using a standard
six-sided die and then will roll a 3 on the sixth attempt:

P (Y = 5) = (1 − 1/6)5 · 1/6 = 0.06698

The expected value in this case would be:

E(Y ) = (1 − 1/6)/1/6 = 5

The geometric distribution is similar to the binomial distribution in that each trial can have
only two outcomes: success or failure, with the probability of success being the same across
trials.
But, the geometric distribution is concerned with only the first instance of success, whereas
the binomial distribution seeks to determine the total number of successes over a fixed set of
trials.
Example 4. On each day we play a lottery in which the probability of winning is 1%.
What is the expected value of the number of days that will elapse before we win for the
first time?

Solution: Each time we play the lottery, the outcome is a Bernoulli random variable (equal
to 1 if we win), with parameter p = 0.01. Therefore, the number of days before winning is a
geometric random variable with parameter p = 0.01. Its expected value is

[1 − p] 0.99
= = 99
p 0.01

Example 5. A fair coin is tossed. a) What is the probability of getting a tail at the 5th
toss?
b) Find the mean µ and standard deviation σ of the distribution? c) Use excel or google sheets
to plot the probabilities from x = 1 to x = 10.

Solution:
a)
Let ”getting a tail” be a ”success”. For a fair coin, the probability of getting a tail is
p = 1/2
and ”not getting a tail” (failure) is −p = 1 − 1/2 = 1/2

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 For a fair coin, it is reasonable to assume that we have a geometric probability distribution.
Getting a tail at the 5th toss implies getting ”no tail” (failure) for the first 4 tosses and a
success at the 5th toss. Hence
P (X = 5) = (1 − 1/2)4 (1/2) = (1/2)5 = 1/32 = 0.03125

b)
µ = 1/0.5
q = 2q
1−p 2 0.5 2
σ= p
= 0.5
= 1.41

c)
The distribution of the geometric probability distribution for p = 0.5

P (X = x) = (0.5)x−1 0.5, f or x = 1, 2, 3, ...10

Example 6. In a large population of adults, 45% have a post secondary degree. If people
are selected at random from this population,

a) what is the probability that the third person selected is the first one that has a post
secondary degree?

b) what is the probability that the first person with a post secondary degree is randomly
selected on or before the 4th selection?

Solution: a) Let ”having post secondary degree” be a ”success”. If a person from this popula-
tion is selected at random, the probability of ”having post secondary degree” is p = 45% = 0.45
and ”not having post secondary degree” (failure) is 1 − p = 1 − 0.45 = 0.55
Selecting a person from a large population is a trial and these trials may be assumed to be
independent. This is a geometric probability problem. Hence

P (X = 3) = (1 − 0.45)2 (0.45) = 0.1361

b) On or before the 4th is selected means either the first, second, third or fourth person.
The probability may be written as

P (X ≤ 4) = P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) + P (X = 3) + P (X = 4)

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 Substitute by the formula

P (X = x) = (1 − 0.45)x−1 0.45

to write

P (X ≤ 4) = (1−0.45)1−1 0.45+(1−0.45)2−1 0.45+(1−0.45)3−1 0.45+(1−0.45)4−1 0.45 = 0.9085

Example 7. If your probability of success is 0.2, what is the probability you meet an
independent voter on your third try?

Solution: Inserting 0.2 as p and with X = 3, the geometric probability density function be-
comes:

f (x) = (1 − p)x − 1 ∗ p

P (X = 3) = (1 − 0.2)3−1 (0.2)

P (X = 3) = (0.8)2 ∗ 0.2 = 0.128.

Example 8. A representative from the National Football League’s Marketing Division

randomly selects people on a random street in Kansas City, Kansas until he finds a person who
attended the last home football game. Let , the probability that he succeeds in finding such
a person, equal 0.20. And, let denote the number of people he selects until he finds his first
success.
a) What is the probability that the marketing representative must select 4 people before
he finds one who attended the last home football game?
b) What is the probability that the marketing representative must select more than 6 people
before he finds one who attended the last home football game?
c) How many people should we expect (that is, what is the average number) the marketing
representative needs to select before he finds one who attended the last home football game?
And, while we’re at it, what is the variance?

Solution: a) To find the desired probability, we need to find P (X = 4), which can be deter-
mined readily using the p.m.f. of a geometric random variable with p = 0.20, 1 − p = 0.80,
and x = 4

P (X = 4)0.803 × 0.20 = 0.2024

There is about a 10% chance that the marketing representative would have to select 4
people before he would find one who attended the last home football game.

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 b) To find the desired probability, we need to find P (X > 6) = 1 − P (X ≤ 6), which can be
determined readily using the c.d.f. of a geometric random variable with 1 − p = 0.80 andx = 6:

P (X > 6) = 1 − P (X ≤ 6) = 1 − [1 − 0.86 ] = 0.86 = 0.262

There is about a 26% chance that the marketing representative would have to select more
than 6 people before he would find one who attended the last home football game.
c) The average number is:

µ = (E)(X) = 1/p = 1/0.20 = 5

That is, we should expect the marketing representative to have to select 5 people before
he finds one who attended the last football game. Of course, on any given try, it may take 1
person or it may take 10, but 5 is the average number. The variance is 20, as determined by:

1−p 0.80 2
σ 2 = V ar(X) = = = 0.20
p2 0.20

13 Hypergeometric Distribution
Hypergeometric distribution is a probability distribution that models the number of
successes in a random sample drawn without replacement from a finite population. Some
examples of hypergeometric distribution are:

ˆ Drawing cards from a deck and counting the number of red cards or aces.

ˆ Sampling fish from a pond and counting the number of tagged fish.

ˆ Selecting candies from a jar and counting the number of red candies.

ˆ products from a batch and counting the number of defective items.

The hypergeometric distribution differs from the binomial distribution in the lack of replace-
ments. Thus, it often is employed in random sampling for statistical quality control. A simple
everyday example would be the random selection of members for a team from a population of
girls and boys.
Hypergeometric distribution plays a vital role in statistics and probability theory as it helps
make selections from two groups without replacing the members of those groups. To see how
to calculate it, let us follow the below steps:
1. Firstly, determine the total number of items in the population, which is denoted by N.
For example, the number of playing cards in a deck is 52.
2. Next, determine the number of items in the sample, denoted by n—for example, the number

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of cards drawn from the deck.
3. Next, determine the instances which will be considered to be successes in the population,
and it is denoted by K. For example, the number of hearts in the overall deck, which is 13.
4. Next, determine the instances which will be considered to be successes in the sample drawn,
and it is denoted by k. E.g., the number of hearts in the cards drawn from the deck. 5. Finally,
the formula for the probability of a hypergeometric distribution is derived using several items
in the population (Step 1), the number of items in the sample (Step 2), the number of successes
in the population (Step 3), and the number of successes in the sample (Step 4) as shown below.
In symbols, let the size of the population selected from be N, with k elements of the
population belonging to one group (for convenience, called successes) and N − k belonging to
the other group (called failures). Further, let the number of samples drawn from the population
be n, such that 0 ≤ n ≤ N . Then the probability (P ) that the number (X) of elements drawn
from the successful group is equal to some number (x) is given by
k N −k



x n−x
P (X = x) = N


n

where N = No. of items in the population

n = No. of items in the sample
K = No. of successes in the population
k = No. of successes in the sample

The mean of the hypergeometric distribution is nk/N , and the variance (square of the
standard deviation) is nk(N − k)(N − n)/N 2 (N − 1).
Example 1. Let us take the example of an ordinary deck of playing cards from where 6
cards are drawn randomly without replacement. First, determine the probability of drawing
exactly 4 red suit cards, i.e., diamonds or hearts.

ˆ Given N = 52 (since there are 52 cards in an ordinary playing deck)

ˆ n = 6 (Number of cards drawn randomly from the deck)

ˆ K = 26 (since there are 13 red cards each in diamonds and hearts suit)

ˆ k = 4 (Number of red cards to be considered successful in the sample drawn)

Solution: Therefore, the calculation of the probability of drawing exactly 4 red suits cards in
the draw 6 cards using the above formula is as follows:
Probability
k N −k



x n−x
= P (X = x) = N


n

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 26 52−26



4 6−4
= 52

= (14950 ∗ 325)/20358520 = 0.2387
6

Therefore, there is a 23.87% probability of drawing exactly 4 red cards while drawing 6
random cards from an ordinary deck.

Example 2. Let us take another example of a wallet that contains 5 $100 bills and 7 $1 bills.
If 4 bills are chosen randomly, then determine the probability of choosing exactly 3 $100 bills.

ˆ Given, N = 12 (Number of $100 bills + Number of $1 bills)

ˆ n = 4 (Number of bills chosen randomly)

ˆ K = 5 (since there are 5 $100 bills)

ˆ k = 3 (Number of $100 bills to be considered a success in the sample chosen)

Solution: Therefore, the calculation of the probability of choosing exactly 3 $100 bills in the
randomly chosen 4 bills using the above formula is as follows:
5 (12–5) 5



7

3 (4–3) 3 (1) 10 ∗ 7
12

= 12

=
4 4
495

The probability will be 0.414 14.14%.

13.1 When to use

The concept of hypergeometric distribution is important because it provides an accurate way
of determining the probabilities when the number of trials is not very large and when sam-
ples belong to a finite population without replacement. The hypergeometric distribution is
analogous to the binomial distribution, used when the number of trials is substantially large.
However, hypergeometric distribution is all about sampling without replacement.

13.2 Hypergeometric Distribution Vs Binomial Distribution

Both these types of distributions help identify the probability or chances of an event occurring
a specific number of times in n number of trials. However, they still differ. Let us look at the
differences between the two:

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 Category Hypergeometric Distribution Binomial Distribution
Replacement Replacement of group members does Replacement of group members occurs
not occur
Variation The probability changes with every The probability remains constant with
trial. every trial.
Usage Used in a population small as the out- Used in a population large enough
come has a large effect on the proba- for the outcome to have an effect on
bility of a situation being an event or the probability of a situation being an
non-event. event or non-event.

13.3 What is the difference between binomial and hypergeometric

distribution?
In the binomial distribution, the probability is similar for every trial. In comparison, in the
hypergeometric distribution, each shot changes the probability for each subsequent trial as
there is an absence of replacement.

13.4 How to identify hypergeometric distribution?

One may identify the hypergeometric distribution by population size, event count in population,
and sample size.
There are five characteristics of a hypergeometric experiment.

I You take samples from two groups.

II You are concerned with a group of interest, called the first group.

III You sample without replacement from the combined groups. For example, you want to
choose a softball team from a combined group of 11 men and 13 women. The team
consists of ten players.

IV Each pick is not independent, since sampling is without replacement. In the softball
13
example, the probability of picking a woman first is 24
. The probability of picking a man
11 10
second is 23
if a woman was picked first. It is 23
if a man was picked first. The probability
of the second pick depends on what happened in the first pick. You are not dealing with
Bernoulli Trials. The outcomes of a hypergeometric experiment fit a hypergeometric
probability distribution.

The random variable X = the number of items from the group of interest.

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13.5 Is hypergeometric distribution independent?
One may use the Hypergeometric Distribution while performing multiple trials like the Bino-
mial Distribution. In addition, one may also count the number of “successes” and “failures.”
The main difference is the trials are based on each other.

13.6 Can hypergeometric distribution be negative?

N, M, and m are non-negative integers that meet the condition m ≤ M ≤ N . In addition, a
negative hypergeometric distribution often comes in a sampling scheme without replacement.

14 Poisson Distribution
What is a Poisson Trial?
A Poisson trial is a collection of Bernoulli trials with unequal probabilities. In other words,
one Poisson trial is exactly the same as one Bernoulli trial. However, when you have many of
them with different probabilities, they are called Poisson trials.
A binomial trial is an experiment with two outcomes, success or failure. A “success” is
the result you’re looking for. For example, it could be a “yes” on a questionnaire, a perfect
hammer from a factory floor, or a plant that flowers (as opposed to one that doesn’t). In
real life, it’s common for these success/failure situations to have unequal probabilities. For
example, different lines on a factory floor may have small probability differences in the number
of faulty widgets each line produces. Analysis of road accidents often involves Poisson trials,
as probabilities change with each instance of travel. When these probabilities are unequal for
each Bernoulli trial of independent events, it becomes a Poisson trial.

14.1 Poisson Distribution

Poisson trials follow a Poisson distribution and have no limit on the number of outcomes.
Bernoulli trials follow a Binomial distribution and are limited by a fixed number of trials. the
two distributions are extremely similar; so similar, in fact, that the Poisson distribution can
be derived as an approximation to the binomial when the number of trials is very large and
probabilities are very small. A Poisson distribution also refered to as X ∼ P (µ) is a tool
that helps to predict the probability of certain events happening when you know how often
the event has occurred. It gives us the probability of a given number of events happening in a
fixed interval of time.

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14.2 Calculating the Poisson Distribution
The Poisson Distribution pmf is:

(e−µ × µx )
X ∼ P (µ) = P (x; µ) =
x!
Where:
The symbol ”!” is a factorial.
µ (the expected number of occurrences) is sometimes written as λ. Sometimes called the event
rate or rate parameter. The Mean of X ∼ P (µ)µ
The variance of X ∼ P (µ) = µ
√
Standard Deviation of X ∼ P (µ) = + µ

Example 1.
The average number of major storms in your city is 2 per year. What is the probability
that exactly 3 storms will hit your city next year?

Solution:

I Step 1: Figure out the components you need to put into the equation.

ˆ µ = 2 (average number of storms per year, historically)

ˆ x = 3 (the number of storms we think might hit next year)

ˆ e = 2.71828 (e is Euler’s number, a constant)

II Step 2: Plug the values from Step 1 into the Poisson distribution formula:

(e−µ × µx )
ˆ P (x; µ) =
x!
(2.71828–2 )(23 )
ˆ =
3!
ˆ = (0.13534) (8) / 6
ˆ = 0.180

The probability of 3 storms happening next year is 0.180, or 18%.

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14.3 Poisson distribution vs. Binomial distribution
The above example was over-simplified to show you how to work through a problem. However,
it can be challenging to figure out if you should use a binomial distribution or a Poisson
distribution. If you are not given a specific guideline from your instructor, use the following
general guideline.
If your question has an average probability of an event happening per unit (i.e. per unit of
time, cycle, event) and you want to find probability of a certain number of events happening
in a period of time (or number of events), then use the Poisson Distribution.
If you are given an exact probability and you want to find the probability of the event
happening a certain number of times out of x (e.g., 10 times out of 100, or 99 times out of
1000), use the Binomial Distribution formula.
Example 2. A watch manufacturing company wants to reduce the number of defective
pieces. It took an average of 100 lots and found that 7 watches from each lot were defective.
What would be the probability of 10 watches being defective in a single lot?

Solution:

I Step 1: Figure out the components you need to put into the equation.

ˆ µ = 7 (Average number of defective watches in a lot)

ˆ x = 10 (Expected number of defective watches in a particular lot)

ˆ e = 2.71828 (e is Euler’s number, a constant)

II Step 2: Plug the values from Step 1 into the Poisson distribution formula:

(e−µ × µx )
ˆ P (x; µ) =
x!
(2.71828 )(710 )
–7
ˆ =
10!
ˆ =
ˆ = 0.07098 or 7.098%

The probability of 10 watches being defective in a single slot is 0.07089 or 7.098%.

Example 3. The number of industrial injuries per working week in a particular factory is
known to follow a Poisson distribution with mean 0.5. Find the probability that

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(a) In a particular week there will be
(a) less than 2 accidents,
(b) more than 2 accidents;

(c) In a three week period there will be no accidents.

Solution:
(a) Let x be the number of accidents in one week. So X ∼ P (0.5)
(a) P (X < 2) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1)
(b) 1 − P (X ≤ 2) = P (X > 2) = 1 − [P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2)]

(c) P (0 in 3 weeks) = P (0)3

14.4 What are the properties of Poisson distribution?

A model is said to be a Poisson distribution if it possesses the following properties:

I The possibility of success in a specific time frame is independent of its earlier occurrence.

II The variables or the number of occurrences should be in whole numbers, i.e., countable.

III The chances of a successful outcome more than once in the given period are negligible.

IV The value of µ, i.e., the average number of occurrences in a certain period, should be
specified.

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