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FROM UNDERDOGS TO TIGERS
This page intentionally left blank
From Underdogs to Tigers:
The Rise and Growth of the
Software Industry in
Brazil, China, India,
Ireland, and Israel
Ashish Arora and Alfonso Gambardella

1
 3
Great Clarendon Street, Oxford ox2 6dp
Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford.
It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship,
and education by publishing worldwide in
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With offices in
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Singapore Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam
Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press
in the UK and in certain other countries
Published in the United States
by Oxford University Press Inc., New York
© Oxford University Press, 2005
The moral rights of the authors have been asserted
Database right Oxford University Press (maker)
First published 2005
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means,
without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press,
or as expressly permitted by law, or under terms agreed with the appropriate
reprographics rights organization. Enquiries concerning reproduction
outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department,
Oxford University Press, at the address above
You must not circulate this book in any other binding or cover
and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
(Data available)
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
From underdogs to tigers : the rise and growth of the software industry in Brazil,
China, India, Ireland, and Israel / Ashish Arora and Alfonso Gambardella.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0–19–927560–2 (alk. paper)
1. Computer software industry. 2. Globalization. I. Arora, Ashish. II. Gambardella,
Alfonso, 1961–
HD9696.63.A2F76 2005
338.4
7005—dc22 2004026997
ISBN 0–19–927560–2
3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2
Typeset by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India
Printed in Great Britain
on acid-free paper by
Biddles Ltd., King’s Lynn, Norfolk
 CONTENTS

List of Figures vii

List of Tables viii
Notes on the Editors xi
List of Contributors xii

1. Introduction 1
Ashish Arora and Alfonso Gambardella

Part I COUNTRY CHAPTERS

2. The Indian Software Industry 7
Suma S. Athreye
3. The Irish Software Industry 41
Anita Sands
4. The Israeli Software Industry 72
Dan Breznitz
5. The Brazilian Software Industry 99
Antonio J. Junqueira Botelho, Giancarlo Stefanuto, and
Francisco Veloso
6. The Chinese Software Industry 131
Ted Tschang and Lan Xue

Part II CROSS-CUTTING CHAPTERS

7. Organizational Capabilities and the Rise of the Software
Industry in the Emerging Economies: Lessons from the
History of some US Industries 171
Ashish Arora, Alfonso Gambardella, and Steven Klepper
8. The Role of the Multinational Companies 207
Marco Giarratana, Alessandro Pagano, and Salvatore Torrisi
vi Contents
9. Sojourns and Software: Internationally Mobile Human
Capital and High-Tech Industry Development in India,
Ireland, and Israel 236
Devesh Kapur and John McHale
10. Bridging the Gap: Conclusions 275
Ashish Arora and Alfonso Gambardella

Index 303
 LIST OF FIGURES

2.1. Indian Software Revenues (1984–2003) 9

3.1. Principal Activities of Software Firms in Ireland 48
4.1. Sales per Employee 76
4.2. Israel by Patent Technology 1994–99 78
4.3. Venture Capital Raised in Israel 1991–2000 92
5.1. Average Annual Growth of IT Market in Brazil (Current Values) 105
5.2. Growth of External Financing in a Sample of Lead
Brazilian Software Firms 119
5.3. Export Strategies for Sample of Fifty-five Leading
Software Firms 120
6.1. The Possible Impacts of the Chinese Economy’s Growth
on Software Firms 148
7.1. Entry, Exit, and Number (a) of Automobile Producers,
1895–1966; (b) of Tire Producers, 1901–80; (c) of Television
Producers, 1946–89; (d) of Laser Producers, 1961–94 175
7.2. Percentage of Television Producers in New York, Chicago,
and Los Angeles, 1946–89 177
7.3. Fraction of Laser Firms in Silicon Valley, 1961–94 182
9.1. Lost Surplus from Emigration 247
9.2. New Irish Graduates Overseas, 1982–97 257
9.3. Estimated Annual Net Migration to Ireland 259
9.4. Migration Flows to Ireland: Returning Irish Emigrants and
Non-Irish Nationals, 1995–2001 260
10.1. India, Ireland, and Israel: SW Export Shares 1991–2002 279
 LIST OF TABLES

2.1. India’s Manpower and Revenues/Man-year 10

2.2. Top Twenty Exporters and the Origins of the Firms (Ranked by
Annual Revenue) 11
2.3. Entry Dates and Composition of Firms, 2000–01 12
2.4. Looking Back: Instability of Market Shares Over Time of the
Top Ten Firms in 2000–01 13
2.5. Entry Dates and the Regional Location of Firms, 2001 14
2.6. International Differences in the Salaries Paid to Software
Professionals (US$ Per Annum): 1995–99 15
2.7. Comparative Advantage in Software Production Across Selected
Countries, 1995 16
2.8. Policy Changes Affecting the Software Sector: 1972–99 18
2.9. Decomposing the Annual Growth of Indian Software
Exports, 1987–93 26
2.10. Incidence of Certification Among Various Types of
Entrants in 1999–2000 28
2.11. Characteristics of Firms in the Median and Third Quartile 29
2.12. Large Contracts Bagged by Indian Software Firms
Reported in National Newspapers (2001–03) 31
2.13. ITES-BPO Revenues by Service Lines 33
2.A1. Types of Entrant Firms 38
3.1. Overview Statistics for the Indigenous and Overseas
Sectors of the Irish Software Industry (1991–2003) 44
3.2. Leading Software Multinational Corporations Located
in Ireland 47
3.3. Leading (Top Thirty) Indigenous Irish Software Companies 54
3.4. Size Analysis of Indigenous Software Companies (1998) 57
3.5. Work Experience of Irish Software Entrepreneurs 64
4.1. Software Sales, Exports, and Employment in Ireland and Israel 74
4.2. Israel’s Top Software Companies by Sales 2001–2002 77
4.3. Israel’s Top Patent Issuers 1996–2001 78
4.4. The OCS’ Budget 1988–99 (in 2000 $USD million) 90
5.1. Software Market in Selected Countries in 2001 101
5.2. Main Indicators for the Brazilian Software Industry 106
5.3. Brazilian IT Services Market in 2002 (Share of Revenues) 107
 List of Tables ix
5.4. History of Firm Creation in Brazil by Company Size
(Survey of 681 Firms) 108
5.5. Largest Software Firms in Brazil in 2001 109
5.6. Dates of Firm Creation for Sample of Leading Companies 110
5.7. Comparing Software with the Overall Brazilian Industry 110
5.8. Knowledge Intensity of Firms Developing Software for Leading
Sectors Versus Average 115
6.1. Number of Firms by Software and SI Sales (in USD) 133
6.2. Top Twenty Software Firms by 2000 Sales 134
6.3. Largest Packaged Software Vendors by Revenue and
Market Share 139
6.4. The Chinese Software Industry’s Sales by Major Sectors
(in billion USD) 140
6.5. Growth in Sales of Types of Products for Selected Years
(billion USD) 140
6.6. IT Market by Industry Verticals (US$ M) 149
6.7. China ERP Software Market Revenue Breakdown by
Vendor, 1999–2000 153
6.8. Hardware–Software Breakdown for Total IT Market 154
6.9. Software Workforce 156
6.A1. Firms that were Directly Interviewed and their Basic
Characteristics 162
7.1. Location of Television and Radio Producers 176
7.2. Origins of the Leading Chinese Software Firms 187
7.3. Origins of Some Leading Irish Software Firms 188
7.4. Origins of Some Leading Israeli Software Firms 190
7.5. Entry Dates for 125 Indian Software Start-ups
(Excluding Multinationals and Business Houses) 192
7.6. Selected Foreign-born Populations in the United States
Aged 25 and Above 194
7.7. Importance of Different Factors as Sources of Location
Advantages in Ireland, Irish Software Firms 200
8.1. Patents Granted to Domestic and Foreign Assignees
(1976–2002) 214
8.2. Average Number of ICT Patents in Domestic and MNC Firms 216
8.3. Irish Software Firm Founders by Previous Occupation
(1981–2002) 217
8.4. Irish Software Firm Founders by Previous Occupation
and by Year of Firm Foundation (1981–2002) 217
8.5. Domestic Inventors Formerly Employed by MNCs
(1976–2002) 220
8.6. Patents Citations in Domestic Patents, 1976–2002 221
8.7. Sample Firms by Nationality of the Parent Company (2001) 222
8.8. Sample Firms by Year of Establishment 223
x List of Tables
8.9. MNCs Growth and Alliances with Domestic Firms
(1998–2002) 224
8.10. Domestic Firms Alliances with MNCs and Other Foreign Firms
(1998–2002) 225
8.A1. List of Executives Interviewed by Telephone, 2003 231
9.1. Indian-, Irish-, and Israeli-born Populations in the United States,
1960–2000 239
9.2. Characteristics of the US-born and Selected Foreign-born
Populations in the United States 240
9.3. Selected Foreign-born Populations in the United States Aged 25
and Above 242
9.4. INS Approved H-1B Petitions, October 1999 to February 2000 243
9.5. Irish and Indian Nationals in the United Kingdom 244
9.6. Demographic Characteristics of Professional Associations in
Silicon Valley 255
9.7. Leveraging the Diaspora: Indicators of Emigrant Connectedness
in Silicon Valley 256
9.8. Residents of the Irish State on Census 2002 Night Who
Lived Outside of Ireland for One Year or More 258
10.1. The Software Industry in Brazil, China, and the 3Is, and
by Comparison in the US, Japan, and Germany 277
10.2. Brazil, China, and the 3Is: Software Industry Growth,
GDP Growth, and Software Export Shares 278
10.3. Stocks of Scientists and Engineers in Selected Countries,
1981 and 1990, in ’000s 281
 NOTES ON THE EDITORS

Ashish Arora has a PhD in Economics from Stanford University and is Professor
of Economics and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh. Arora
is also codirector of the Software Industry Center at Carnegie Mellon University.
His research focuses on the economics of technological change, the management
of technology, intellectual property rights, and technology licensing. In addition
to publishing pioneering studies of the Indian software industry, he has published
extensively on the economics of patents, technology licensing, the growth and
development of biotechnology and the chemical industry, and software quality
and security. His recent book, Markets for Technology: Economics of Innovation
and Corporate Strategy, coauthored with Alfonso Gambardella and Andrea
Fosfuri, was published by MIT Press. He has also coedited (with Ralph Landau
and Nathan Rosenberg) Chemicals and Long Term Economic Growth, published
in 1998 by John Wiley & Sons.

Alfonso Gambardella obtained his PhD from the Department of Economics,

Stanford University, in 1991. He is Professor of Economics and Management at
the Università Commerciale ‘L. Bocconi’, Milan, Italy. His main research interests
are in the economics of technological change, applied industrial organization, and
strategic management. He has published in leading international journals in these
fields, and participated in several international research projects, including projects
sponsored by the European Commission and the Sloan Foundation. He published
Science and Innovation with Cambridge University Press in 1995 and Markets
for Technology (coauthored with Ashish Arora, Carnegie Mellon University,
and Andrea Fosfuri, Universitat Carlos III, Madrid) with MIT Press in 2001.
He has also coedited The Organization of Innovation Activities in Europe (with
Franco Malerba, Bocconi University, Milan) and Beyond Silicon Valley: Building
High-Tech Clusters (with Timothy Bresnahan, Stanford University), which came
out in 1999 and 2003 respectively from Cambridge University Press.
 LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS

Ashish Arora, Carnegie Mellon University

Suma S. Athreye, Open University, London
Antonio J. Junqueira Botelho, Instituto Gênesis, PUC, Rio de Janeiro
Dan Breznitz, Industrial Performance Center—MIT
Alfonso Gambardella, Carnegie Mellon University
Marco Giarratana, Universitat Carlos III, Madrid
Devesh Kapur, Harvard University
Steven Klepper, Carnegie Mellon University
John McHale, Queen’s University
Alessandro Pagano, University of Ubino, Italy
Anita Sands, Carnegie Mellon University
Giancarlo Stefanuto, University of Campinas, Brazil
Salvatore Torrisi, University of Camerino, Italy
Ted Tschang, Singapore Management University
Francisco Veloso, Carnegie Mellon University and Universidade Católica
Portuguesa
Lan Xue, Tsing Hua University
 1
Introduction
ASHISH ARORA AND ALFONSO GAMBARDELLA

The raison d’etre of this book is simple. During the 1990s several emerging
economies developed sizable software industries. By 2001, there were several
countries with software revenues between $7 and $10 billion, including Brazil,
China, South Korea, and India, Israel, and Ireland. The latter three, dubbed the
3Is in this book, standout for their rapid growth and high share of exports. India’s
software revenues, for example, grew at over 30 percent per annum over the last
decade, and the industry went from being practically nonexistent in the 1980s
to accounting for 3 percent of India’s GDP, a fifth of its exports, and employing
about 230,000 Indians by 2003. Similarly, both Israel and Ireland have established
themselves as major software exporters.
Brazil and China also recorded double digit growth rates in software revenues
over the past decade, but were largely pulled along by domestic demand rather
than by exports. Nonetheless, the size of their respective markets implies that their
software industries are large, even by international standards. Moreover, if Brazil
and China do succeed in becoming exporters in the future, as they are attempting to
do, their impact on the international industry will be significant, particularly since
they would have demonstrated an alternative path to international competitiveness
in the software industry, different from that of the 3Is, especially India and Ireland.
Since software is commonly viewed as a high-tech industry, it is intriguing that
such spectacular growth has occurred in countries where one would not typically
expect high-tech activities to flourish. This raises several questions. What accounts
for the spectacular growth of software in these emerging economies? What is
common and what is different between the successful exporters, the 3Is, and Brazil
and China, which appear to be taking a different path. Does the apparent success
of the 3Is in becoming internationally competitive in a high-tech sector suggest
new possibilities for other developing countries? Are there lessons to be learnt
by other emerging economies from their experience? These are the questions we
address in this study.
The book is organized as follows. The five country chapters describe the rise
and growth of the software industry in the countries in question. They also provide
interpretations of the patterns, forces, and causes underlying the development of
the industry. These five chapters are complemented by three others that deal with
important horizontal themes that recur in the country chapters. The first draws upon
recent research on the origins and evolution of four US industries—automobiles,
2 Ashish Arora and Alfonso Gambardella
tires, TVs, and lasers, to understand the origins of the software industry in the
five emerging economies. Our goal is to identify some of the fundamental forces
underlying the growth of new industries, and thereby to highlight some of the
forces central to the dynamics of capitalism. The history of the four US indus-
tries highlights the importance of organizational competencies in firm formation
and firm performance. Though there are important differences between industrial
evolution in a pioneering nation such as the United States and that in late-comer
nations, and between software and industries such as automobiles, the sources of
organizational competencies remain important for understanding the growth and
evolution of the software industry in the five emerging economies.
External sources of organizational and technological competencies have been
important in the growth of software industry in the five countries studied in the
book, and especially in the 3Is. However, the 3Is differ in how important multi-
national corporations have been and in what role they have played. Thus, the
second of the three chapters dealing with horizontal themes looks at the impact of
multinational corporations in the 3Is, the various channels through which multi-
national corporations have influenced the growth of the software industry, and the
differences in importance of these channels across the 3Is. The chapter provides
a very useful complement to the individual country descriptions by providing cross-
country comparisons using a variety of data sources, including data on patenting
and on firm linkages.
The third horizontal chapter focuses on the international migration of human
capital from and to the 3Is. All three have sizeable diasporas, and in the 1990s
population flows from and to have been relevant factors in the development of
their respective software industries. The chapter provides quantitative evidence
on extent and nature of the population flows and assesses how these flows have
affected the 3Is, and especially the role of the expatriate nationals in the growth
of the software industry in the 3Is.
In the concluding chapter, the editors organize and re-examine the material
provided in the preceding chapters with a view to developing a framework for
addressing some of the broader questions they raise.
The growth of the software industry doubtless owes much to the tremendous
growth in IT demand in the 1990s. However, this book has tried to understand
why a selected group of underdog countries alone appear to have been able to
leverage this window of opportunity to grow their software industry. Thus, one
element of the framework is to distinguish between factors responsible for the
initial growth of the software industry in our ‘underdog’ regions from the forces
that sustained this growth even as plausible sources of initial advantage (such as
cheap and abundant human capital) diminish in importance over time.
This brings into question whether comparative advantage is by itself sufficient
for understanding how underdog economies could become software tigers. Though
undoubtedly the 3Is have a comparative advantage in software, so do Brazil and
China, and as do plausibly many other countries. Comparative advantage cannot by
itself explain why these countries and not others have developed an internationally
 Introduction 3
competitive software industry, nor can it explain by itself why growth has continued
even as the initial advantages diminish. For understanding the factors that sustain
growth, we look to firm level capabilities, both organizational and technological.
Firm capabilities are related to country level endowments of human capital and
technological capability but also depend upon distinctive country specific institu-
tions and of course, on chance. This interplay between the macro and the micro
foundations of success, between comparative advantage and firm capabilities, is
how we see the growth of the software industry in emerging economies.
The book is the outcome of a two-year research project on the software industry
in five emerging economies—India, Ireland, Israel, Brazil, and China. The authors
of the country chapters hail from the countries in question, though several now
work abroad, putting them in an excellent position to assess the industry both from
the standpoint of their respective countries of origin and from a global perspective.
All the country studies are based on original interviews and material obtained
from field work. Over the two-year period, the group met in three workshops to
discuss and revise the individual chapters. These meetings were extremely useful
in developing and disseminating ideas, in improving the overall structure of the
book and of the individual contributions, and in helping to generate the intellectual
stimulus necessary to sustain an endeavor such as this. The book is thus the outcome
of a tightly controlled editorial process, involving several revisions of the various
chapters. The project was carried out under the aegis of the Software Industry
Center (SWIC), Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, and sponsored by the
Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. The Sloan
Foundation deserves special thanks for laying the foundation for this project by
supporting an initial study of the Indian software industry in 1997–98 at Carnegie
Mellon University. We also gratefully acknowledge support from the following
corporate sponsors: IBM, TCS, PWC, i-Flex, Marconi, and InformationWeek.
Many colleagues have been generous with their time and expertise. We are
grateful to Rafiq Dossani, Manuel Trajtenberg, David Mowery, and Giovanni
Dosi for providing very helpful comments and suggestions on individual chapters
at the two workshops in Pisa and Pittsburgh. We are indebted to Rafel Lucea and
Jay Horwitz who displayed initiative in data collection and analysis well beyond
what one can expect from research assistants. We are also very grateful to Diasmer
Bloe and Marica Passarelli for their energy and enthusiasm in helping us put this
book together for publication.
This page intentionally left blank
 PART I

COUNTRY CHAPTERS
This page intentionally left blank
 2
The Indian Software Industry
S U M A S . AT H R E Y E

1 Introduction

In the last fifteen years, India has emerged as a major exporter of software services
in the international economy. This feat has been accomplished through the extra-
ordinary growth of the Indian software industry: between 1995 and 2000, software
sales grew at a compound rate of over 50 percent. Despite fears that the market
for Indian software would collapse in the midst of a recession in the United States,
software growth continues, albeit at a slower pace, and the industry has diversified
into other geographical and related markets.
The industry is emerging as a major contributor of export earnings in India:
the proportion of software exports to merchandise exports grew from insignificant
amounts in 1990 to 18 percent in 2002–03. The sector’s contribution to India’s
overall invisible receipts is more remarkable and accounted for about 59 percent
of receipts in 2002–03. Despite this impressive export performance, the software
sector’s share in overall GDP and employment is small—contributing less than
3 percent of India’s GDP and employing 500,000 people in 2002–03. The domestic
market for IT, although growing, is minor and the industry has no links with other
domestic sectors. This is supported by the fact that exports account for a high share
in total software revenue. Nonetheless, the Indian software industry accounted for
over 28 percent of India’s GDP growth between 2000 and 2002.1 So, although the
size of software services in India in terms of GDP and employment is small, it is
one of the fastest growing sectors of the economy. In the last two years the more
phenomenal growth has come from the IT-enabled service sector, which grew at
a rate of 70 percent in 2001–02 and employed an estimated 106,000 persons at the
end of March 2002.2
Software is more than just another industry—it is a central intermediate good
in the new digital economy. Its role is analogous to that played by the capital
goods sector in an economy based on mechanized technologies. Like capital
goods, software is characterized by a large number of specialized (service) sup-
pliers. Put differently, the number of firms that produce software or employ

The author gratefully acknowledges all those whose comments helped shape this chapter,
notably Ashish Arora, Anthony D’Costa, Rafiq Dossani, Alfonso Gambardella and partic-
ipants at the two globalization meetings. The usual disclaimer applies.
8 Suma S. Athreye
software developers is larger than the number of firms usually labeled as software
firms, for example, Microsoft or Oracle. Thus, ‘packaged software’ is only
a fraction of the total software industry. Indeed large banks, insurance com-
panies, finance companies, and virtually every organization of any size ends
up producing, maintaining, and enhancing a considerable amount of software.
Much of this software is specialized, consisting of standard ‘platforms’ such as
an SAP ERP system or an Oracle accounting system tailored to users’ needs.
Over two-thirds of all the software development effort is spent in maintain-
ing and enhancing the existing software code, rather than in producing new
software.3
Despite the steady increase in the supply of software technology and
tools, much of these activities still require suitably trained people, the
demand for whom exceeded supply in the developed world as the information
technology revolution took hold in the 1990s. However, a substantial portion
of these activities could be outsourced from the user organization. This type
of demand formed the basis of the initial growth of the Indian software
industry.
At first glance, this seems ironic since India has some of the lowest
figures for IT penetration. Yet, the needs of such software production seem
particularly suited to the resource endowments of the Indian economy, which
has an abundance of labor and a relative scarcity of capital and physical
infrastructure. Software services are intensive in the use of skilled labor and
require relatively little capital.4 Firms can begin as a single software develop-
ment team or temporary employment agencies, requiring a minimal space to set
up a handful of PCs and a telephone. The production of software does not depend
heavily on physical infrastructure such as roads and ports. However, a steady
supply of electrical power is critical, as is ready access to PCs, workstations,
and communications infrastructure—airports, phones, faxes, and increasingly,
the Internet.
This paradox of India’s success in a technology service industry when the eco-
nomy itself is technologically backward excites debate even as it raises hopes of
similar success in other developing economies. The primary question is: What
accounts for India’s success and what has been its broader impact? This chapter
will approach this question by looking in detail at the evolution of the software
industry in India. The chapter is organized as follows: Section 2 will review the
existing explanations for the growth of Indian software and explain why they
are incomplete, and Sections 3 and 4 outline the main trends in Indian software
growth. Section 3 identifies four phases of growth, based primarily on the chang-
ing policy and economic environment facing domestic software producers. It also
highlights the evolving business model of software outsourcing adopted by Indian
firms in response to the opportunities and constraints of each phase. Section 4
details the development of suitable managerial and organizational capabilities
by Indian firms in lieu of changing constraints in the labor market. Section 5
concludes.
 The Indian Software Industry 9
2 Salient Facts and Existing Explanations

2.1 The Growth of Indian Software

Figure 2.1 plots the growth of software revenues between 1984 and 2004.5 Several
important features of India’s software growth are discernible. First, export sales
were crucial to the rise in industry revenues. In 2000, more than two-thirds of the
software industry’s sales were due to exports. This percentage is still climbing,
with exports accounting for 72 percent of industry sales in 2000–01. Second, the
figure shows the sharp growth of the industry in the mid-1990s and the slow-
down after 2000. Third, Indian software was earning export revenues even in
1984. Though these revenues were insignificant compared to those accrued in the
mid-1990s, they did exist, suggesting that an industry was in place more than
a decade before the export boom took place.
The predominance of exports marks the Indian software industry as an export-
led industry, and as such is different from its counterparts in countries like China
and Brazil. When compared with the equivalent exporters like Israel and Ireland,
Indian software growth also manifests differences.
Unlike the Israeli industry, the Indian software industry was built around
customized software services rather than products. As previously stated, the

18,000
Exports
Total
16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000
Revenues

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0
1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Exports ($million) 22 26 38 54 105 330 485 734 1,085 1,759 2,600 3,962 6,217 7,647 9,875 1,220
Total ($million) 558 835 1,224 1,755 2,936 4,011 5,539 8,298 9,958 1,231 1,557
Year

Figure 2.1. Indian Software Revenues (1984–2003)

10 Suma S. Athreye
Table 2.1. India’s Manpower
and Revenues/Man-year

Year Rev/employee ($)

1993 6,200.00
1994 7,076.27
1995 8,742.86
1996 10,968.75
1997 14,833.33
1998 15,600.00
1999 34,606.90
2000 35,129.55
Note: Figures for 1999 and 2000 are com-
puted by adding revenues and employment of
all firms in the NASSCOM register.
Source: Author’s computations based on
NASSCOM, various years.

customized software services market is a large volume market. Many types of

services, such as those involved in the maintenance of data/legacy systems, are
low value. The Indian software industry has predominantly specialized in rela-
tively low-value activities. To some extent this low-value content of the software
services industry is also reflected in Table 2.1, which shows that the revenues per
employee for Indian software is much lower than similar figures for Ireland and
Israel. There are signs of change visible in Table 2.1, which shows that revenues
per employee have risen over time. The industry is evolving and a small proportion
of firms have advanced into providing higher value services in the form of larger
and more complex projects.
Unlike the Irish industry, Indian software growth was led by domestic rather
than foreign firms. India’s software exports are largely the products of Indian firms.
A number of multinational subsidiaries, foreign (US) firms set up by expatriate
Indians, subsidiaries of Indian business houses, and entrepreneurial firms, often
set up by IT professionals were attracted to the profit opportunities presented by
the software industry in India. Indeed one can observe all of these types among the
leading firms in Table 2.2. Of the top twenty exporters in 2000–01, only five firms
were foreign subsidiaries. If we look at more recent figures (that exclude firms not
incorporated in India) we can also see the diverse origins of the domestic firms—
spin-offs serial entrepreneurs, joint ventures, business house subsidiaries, and
MNE subsidiaries are all represented. In particular, Indian software has attracted
a large amount of entrepreneurial talent from IT professionals.
It is significant that among the leaders, entrepreneurial firms (often set up by
IT professionals) were almost as prominent as business house firms. Table 2.3—
based on a classification of firms by the industry association directory (henceforth
NASSCOM) according to entrant type—shows this clearly.6 The share of industry
revenue and employment by type of entrant in 2000–01 shows that revenues
 The Indian Software Industry 11
Table 2.2. Top Twenty Exporters and the Origins of the Firms
(Ranked by Annual Revenue)
Name of firm Year Origin/type of firm
established

2000–01
Tata Consultancy Services 1968 Business house subsidiary
Wipro Technologies 1980 Business house
Infosys Technologies Limited 1981 Entrepreneurial (IT professionals)
HCL Technologies Limited 1991 Entrepreneurial (IT professionals)
Satyam Computer Services Limited 1987 Business house
IBM India Limited 1987 Multinational subsidiary
Cognizant Technology Solutions 1994 US firm with Indian back office
NIIT Limited 1981 Entrepreneurial (IT professionals)
Silverline Technologies Limited 1992 US firm with Indian back office
Pentasoft Technologies 1995 Business house subsidiary
Pentamedia Graphics 1976 Business house subsidiary
Patni Computer Systems 1978 Entrepreneurial (IT professionals)
Mahindra British Telecom Limited 1988 Joint venture
HCL Perot Systems 1996 Joint venture
DSQ Software Limited 1992 Business house subsidiary
Mascon Global Limited 1995 US firm with Indian back office
Mascot Systems Limited 1993 US firm with Indian back office
Tata Infotech Limited 1977 Business house subsidiary
I-flex Solutions Limited 1989 Spin-off from MNE subsidiary
Mphasis BFL limited 1992 Joint venture
2003–04
Tata Consultancy Services 1968 Business house subsidiary
Infosys Technologies Limited 1981 Spin-off (Patni Computer Systems)
Wipro Technologies 1980 Business house
Satyam Computer Services Limited 1987 Business house
HCL Technologies Limited 1976 Entrepreneurial (IT professionals)
Patni Computer Systems 1978 Entrepreneurial (IT professionals)
I-flex Solutions Limited 1989 Spin-off from MNC (Citibank)
Mahindra British Telecom Limited 1988 Joint venture with British Telecom
Polaris Software 1993 Entrepreneurial (IT professionals)
Digital Globalsoft Ltd. 1988 MNC (now part of HP)
NIIT Limited 1981 Spin-off (HCL)
Perot Systems TSI 1996 Joint venture with Perot Systems
(HCL Perot Systems)
IGate Global Solutions 1993 US firm with Indian back office
(Mascot Systems Limited)
Birlasoft Ltd. 1995 Business house subsidiary
Mphasis BFL limited 1992 Joint venture (Citibank spin-off & BH)
Mastek Ltd. 1982 Entrepreneurial (IT professionals)
Hexaware Technologies Ltd. 1992 Entrepreneurial firm
Larsen & Tubro Infotech Ltd. 1996 Business house subsidiary
Tata Infotech Limited 1977 Business house subsidiary
Hughes Software Systems 1991 Multinational subsidiary
 Table 2.3. Entry Dates and Composition of Firms, 2000–01

Type of entrant Year established Number Share in Share in

of firms revenues employment
Pre-1980 1981–84 1985–91 1992–99 2000–01

Business house firms 10 2 10 60 5 112 26.24 26.89

Multinational enterprises 1 3 24 80 20 128 11.29 16.28
US–Indian 0 0 10 38 10 58 7.87 7.87
Entrepreneurial firms 1 1 4 13 3 22 1.44 0.85
Entrepreneurs with prior IT experience 11 8 46 129 35 229 36.99 34.10
Others 7 2 5 26 3 44 8.08 7.97
All firms 657
Notes: 1. For classification of type of entrant, see Appendix to the chapter. ‘Others’ includes Joint ventures and PSU. Many firms did not report year of
establishment.
2. Shares of employment and revenue do not add up to 100 because of missing data on year of establishment. Total number includes firms with missing data
on year of establishment.
3. Ten Multinational subsidiaries were established in 1991, and twenty-five were established following the second wave of liberalization of foreign investment
rules in 1995–96.
Source: Author’s computations based on NASSCOM [1].
 The Indian Software Industry 13
Table 2.4. Looking Back: Instability of Market Shares Over Time of the
Top Ten Firms in 2000–01

Firm 1994–95 1995–96 1996–97 1999–2000 2000–01

TCS 13.44 12.28 11.43 8.35 8.32

Wipro 5.01 5.64 4.44 4.41 5.21
Infosys 2.13 2.23 2.28 3.62 4.91
HCL 7.63 4.68 2.60 3.38
Satyam 1.31 1.20 2.54 2.78 3.36
IBM India n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.22 2.20
Cognizant n.a. n.a. 0.75 1.70 1.87
NIIT 1.99 3.37 3.07 1.81
Silverline 2.10 2.05 1.23 1.80 1.73
Pentasoft/Pentafour 2.26 2.69 2.72 3.27 3.22
CR5 0.336 0.256 0.266 0.222 0.252
CR10 0.449 0.342 0.373 0.316 0.345
Notes: 1. Market shares are firm sales as percentage share of total industry sales revenue for that year.
2. Pentafour Technologies was split into two firms, Pentasoft and Pentamedia. For comparability the
sales revenues of the two firms have been added up in the later years.
3. The CR 5 and CR 10 ratios are computed as the proportion of industry sales with the five and ten
largest (by sales) firms.
Source: Computed from NASSCOM [1] registers, various years.

are evenly shared between foreign firms (including those owned by US-based
expatriates) and entrepreneurial firms, followed by business house subsidiaries.
Thus, about two-thirds of industry revenues accrued to domestic firms.
There are other features unique to the Indian case. The software industry in
India retains a largely competitive structure, with the top five firms accounting for
roughly a quarter of all industry revenues. The top five and top ten firms (reported in
the last two rows as CR5 and CR10) have always accounted for a minor proportion
of industry (see Table 2.4). The market shares of 2000’s top ten firms over the period
1994–2001 show signs of Schumpeterian creative destruction with new entrants
(such as Cognizant and IBM India) becoming top ten revenue earners.
Contrary to popular perception, the industry is not clustered in Bangalore but
dispersed over the south and west of the country. The number of firms in each
region and their share of revenue and employment indicate this. However, foreign
investment in software is concentrated in Bangalore (see Table 2.5).

2.2 Explanations for Indian Software Industry Growth

The phenomenal success and growth of the Indian software industry is quite
extraordinary when one considers that India is a very poor country with poor infra-
structural investment (generally and in IT) and an illiteracy rate over 33 percent.
So how did the software industry happen? Different explanations have been
proposed, and in this chapter we shall add to the list of such explanations. Before
proceeding to do so, however, we look at the existing explanations and their
limitations.
 Table 2.5. Entry Dates and the Regional Location of Firms, 2001

Location Pre-1980 1981–84 1985–91 1992–99 2000–01 Number Share in Share in

of firms revenues employment

Bangalore 3 3 19 50 15 126 23.7 24.52

Mumbai/Pune 9 11 32 63 8 149 32.47 30.12
(Pune) (1) (0) (8) (17) (2) (35) (2.24) (3.97)
Chennai 3 5 9 34 6 67 13.20 15.29
Delhi: of which 5 4 25 63 17 156 23.49 15.48
(Noida) (1) (6) (18) (4) (34) (18.26) (5.75)
(Gurgaon) (1) (9) (2) (25) (1.16) (1.80)
Hyderabad/Secundrabad 1 6 29 8 63 5.22 9.07
Calcutta 9 8 4 26 0.66 0.48
Notes: 1. The first five columns are computed from NASSCOM [1] after excluding government departments, liaison offices and firms
with missing data on years of establishment (N = 449). Firms that provided IT-enabled services were also excluded.
2. The last three columns have a larger number of firms (N = 658) as they include firms which have missing data on year of establishment.
As a consequence employment and revenue shares add to less than 100.
 The Indian Software Industry 15
Table 2.6. International Differences in the Salaries Paid to Software Professionals
(US$ Per Annum): 1995–99

USA UK Ireland India

1995
Project leader 54,000 39,000 43,000 23,000
Systems designer 55,000 34,000 31,000 11,000
Development programmer 41,000 29,000 21,000 8,000
Quality assurance specialist 50,000 33,000 29,000 14,000
1999
Project leader 65,600 47,400 52,300 33,700
(21.5) (21.5) (21.6) (46.5)
Systems designer 66,900 41,300 37,700 16,100
(21.6) (21.4) (21.6) (46.4)
Development programmer 49,800 35,300 25,600 11,700
(21.4) (21.7) (21.9) (46.3)
Quality assurance specialist 60,800 40,100 35,300 20,500
(21.6) (21.5) (21.7) (46.4)
Note: Figures in parentheses indicate percentage change in salaries on 1995.
Source: www.man.ac.uk/idpm/ for 1995 data, World Employment Report, 2001 for 1999 data.

The earliest explanation, advanced by Heeks [3], is that the Indian software
industry’s success has been due to the wage advantage enjoyed by software
programmers, as they are the key to understanding Indian exports. Cast in
the terminology of trade theory, Heeks’s argument suggests that India had an
absolute advantage over the rest of the world in terms of software wage costs and
this explains the large software exports from India. During the early stages of
software growth, wage differentials were crucial in explaining the profitability of
firms engaged in this business.
However, the export boom through 1995–2000 cannot be explained by absolute
advantage alone. Table 2.6 compares international software salaries between two
points, 1995 and 1999. Even though salaries in India remained lower than those in
the United States, United Kingdom, and Ireland in 1999, Indian software salaries
rose and its growth rates were more than double of those observed in the other
countries. If wages were the only advantage, based on this evidence the export
boom of the mid-1990s should simply not have happened. Absolute advantage
would have diminished once relative scarcity increased, eroding profitability and
reducing Indian exports of software in favor of the exports of other cheaper wage
nations. This dissonance arises because the wage advantage explanation ignores
that software exports are driven not only by absolute (cost) advantages but also
by comparative advantage. The two can coexist, but comparative advantage is the
crucial factor determining Indian software exports.
To see this, consider that wage costs in India (relative to the rest of the world) are
low also for a range of manufacturing and agricultural products. Why have these
wage differentials not translated into good export performance? One explanation
16 Suma S. Athreye
Table 2.7. Comparative Advantage in Software Production Across
Selected Countries, 1995

Country All manufacturing Software Comparative

advantage

($ ’000) Value added per Revenue per Index (1)/(2)

employee (1) employee (2)

Israel 38.30 100.00 2.61

Ireland 117.10 142.24 1.22
India 4.10 8.93 2.18
France 77.143 161.32 2.09
Finland 76.16 83.46 1.10
USA 98.20 126.02 1.28
Notes: (a) Data in column (1) is taken from the UN Industrial Statistics, 1998 and 1999
published by UNCTAD. Exchange rates used to convert local currencies into $ are average
exchange rates (line rf ) from the International Financial Statistics published by the International
Monetary Fund.
(b) Data in column (2) are derived from the following national and international sources: Data
on India are from NASSCOM (www.nasscom.org), Israel from Israeli Association of Software
Houses (www.iash.org.il), Ireland from National Software Directorate (www.nsd.ie), Ireland,
and for France, Finland, and USA from The Software Sector: A Statistical Profile for Selected
OECD Countries, OECD (www.oecd.org/ dsti/sti/it/infosoc/index.htm).
(c) Figures for Israel are obtained by dividing Israeli software revenues by estimated employ-
ment. Figures for Ireland are obtained by excluding multinationals from the calculation, and
therefore, may underestimate revenue per employee in software in Ireland.
Source: Adapted from Arora and Athreye [4, table 4].

is that productivity in these industries is not as high in India as in other parts of the
world. Yet, software productivity levels are lower in India compared with other
parts of the world (notably Ireland and Israel as remarked earlier). Therefore a
more accurate explanation is that software is far more productive relative to man-
ufacturing sectors in India compared with other countries. Table 2.7 compares
the relative productivity of labor in software and manufacturing for several coun-
tries based on crude productivity figures. Software productivity is measured as
revenues per employee, while we measure manufacturing productivity as value-
added per employee.7 Admittedly the indices of productivity are crude, but this is
one way to get an estimate of relative productivity that is consistent across a range
of countries.
Indian firms producing software are more productive per unit of labor employed
than their counterparts in manufacturing. When we compare the ratio of labor
productivity in software to that in manufacturing and the differences in this ratio
across countries, we see that India has the second highest ratio. For instance,
productivity in software is more than twice that in manufacturing in India,
as compared to 1.3 times in the United States.
There is also some indication that this ratio of relative productivities has been
growing in recent years. Arora et al. [5] noted the rapid growth of revenue per
 The Indian Software Industry 17
employee figures (shown in Table 2.1), an index of the increases in the produc-
tivity of Indian software firms since the late 1980s. This has led to the continued
entry of domestic firms—especially established business houses—into software
from other sectors. This microeconomic counterpart of the changing allocation
of resources in the domestic economy demonstrates the increased profitability of
the software sector compared to less lucrative sectors in manufacturing. Absolute
costs are still important—the absolute levels of wage cost and labor productivity
do influence profitability of software production for export from India—but are
not the sole determining factors. Table 2.7 also hints that comparative advantage
is necessary but perhaps not sufficient. For example, France has a favorable rel-
ative productivity in software but is not a major software exporter. This could
be because of the predominance of English as the language for communicating
software needs (often cited as a reason for the success of the 3Is), or the absence
of firm capabilities needed to translate favorable conditions into software exports.
A second explanation, advanced by Ghemawat and Patibandla [6], is that
software represents the success of ‘liberalization’ after government investment in
human capital formation during the previous two decades of import substitution.
As we saw from Figure 2.1, the most phenomenal rise in software industry revenues
came after the mid-1990s. This sharp increase in revenues could be attributed to the
success of liberalization policies, since the boom happened soon after the reversal
of these policies in 1991. However, such a conclusion would be erroneous because,
as we showed in Figure 2.1, by 1988 the industry was already an important foreign
exchange earner and the firms that would emerge as industry leaders were already
well established. If one is reasoning the success of the industry in the 1990s, the
explanation must hinge on changes that took place in the 1980s.
There is some truth in the liberalization argument, though one needs to be careful
about the use of the term ‘liberalization’. Indian industry in the 1960s and 1970s
was shackled by an industrial policy beset by a number of problems. Chief among
these were excessive regulation and constraints on domestic entry into sectors,
high levels of tariff protection, and restrictions against the entry of new foreign
competition. In common parlance, liberalization refers to the reversal of all three,
which happened in 1991. However, being a service industry, software fell outside
the purview of industrial capacity licensing and the domestic market was small and
virtually nonexistent for the industry to gain from protective tariffs. For software,
liberalization related only to the reversal of tariffs on inputs and the removal of
restrictions against foreign competition.
Table 2.8 lists the important policy changes that affected the Indian software
industry. Notice that tariffs to protect hardware imports continued through the
1980s, except for 100 percent export oriented units, which could import hard-
ware at world prices. The Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (FERA) that required
foreign companies to dilute equity holdings to 51 percent also governed foreign
investment in this sector. This governed foreign investment in other sectors of the
economy as well and famously caused the exit of IBM and Coca-Cola in the late
1970s. Though it is claimed that, in granting Texas Instruments the right to invest
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