Equity Research

U.S. Autos & Mobility

6 February 2024

U.S. Autos & Mobility

EV Report Card – Three themes

CORE
defining a step back from EV
euphoria in 2023 U.S. Autos & Mobility
POSITIVE
Key takes: 1. 2023 EV storyline defined by step back from EV U.S. Autos & Mobility
euphoria; 2. EV industry in '23 reflected pivot from supply Dan Levy
+1 212 526 3212
constraints to demand constraints; 3. China reinforcing its dan.levy@barclays.com
global EV lead, while US+EU faced demand challenges; 4. BCI, US

BYD+Tesla consolidating share, BYD momentum accelerated Trevor "TL" Young

+1 212 526 8933
while Tesla decelerated trevor.young1@barclays.com
BCI, US

Three EV themes to 2023

The central storyline of the global EV industry in 2023 was a pullback from EV euphoria, which
had engulfed the industry in the 2020-22 time period. Yet we believe this can be dissected into
three different themes.

1. Pivoting from supply constraints to demand constraints. While we still see growth ahead
for EVs, there has been a significant reset in expectations, with global EV penetration in 2023
ending up at 16%, ~2pts below ingoing expectations.

At its core, we believe the central driver has been a pivot from supply constraints to demand
constraints – a contrast vs. 2020-22, when demand was viewed as unlimited. We’d argue the EV
market has now been presented with the first significant demand challenges it has ever faced,
defined by an intense global price war. The demand challenges stem from the phase-out of
subsidies in different countries, and challenges in moving beyond the “early adopters” to the
“early majority,” with consumers likely challenged amid questions of affordability, changing
infrastructure/range anxiety, and the broader value proposition of EVs.

The industry was also impacted by a pivot away from accepting EV losses, and also as the
capital markets were much tighter. But at its core, the largest driver of the step back from EV
euphoria has been the transition from supply constraints to demand constraints.

2. China reinforcing its global EV lead, EV demand challenges in US vs Europe. The broader
EV market in 2023 was defined by penetration rates coming in below ingoing expectations. Yet

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies
covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a
conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this
report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based
outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.
Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 25.
Completed: 06-Feb-24, 07:21 GMT Released: 06-Feb-24, 07:25 GMT Restricted - External
Barclays | U.S. Autos & Mobility

the narrative varies by region, as China reinforced its lead in the global EV landscape, while
Europe and the US saw uptake below expectations:

• In China, EVs accounted for 34% of new car sales in 2023, up sharply from 2022 (27%). China
has benefited from the “democratization of EVs,” amid the rise of low-cost EVs…even in the
face of subsidy roll-offs. China accounted for nearly 60% of global EV sales in 2023, reinforcing
its lead in the global EV landscape. Lastly, the sharp increase in penetration reflected strong
EV growth (+36% y/y), while ICE sales were -3%.

• Europe EV penetration was 19% in 2023, up only ~50bps vs 2022, and coming in below
ingoing expectations. EV uptake in Europe in recent years has been defined by a combination
of regulatory mandates, generous subsidies, and social consciousness. Yet in 2023 Europe
saw pressures to EV uptake amid the roll-off of different subsidies and also amid broader EV
demand pressures. Moreover, the limited penetration increase reflected comparable y/y
growth for both ICE and EV.

• US EV penetration was 9.4% in 2023, up ~2pts y/y, also below ingoing expectations. Slower EV
uptake has been defined by Tesla’s demand challenges, and also amid broader EV demand
pressures. Interestingly, the US EV demand slowdown emerged despite the onset of IRA EV
tax credits.

3. Tesla, BYD consolidating share; legacy OEMs slowing. The rise of a global EV price war in
2023 drove ongoing share consolidation for Tesla and BYD (covered by Jiong Shao). Specifically,
both are somewhat unique in being high-volume EV makers that have margin “to spare” in
cutting prices, with the vast majority of the industry seeing limited-to-sharply-negative EV
margins.

Accordingly, we saw share consolidation towards Tesla and BYD. We’d highlight the share shift
in two key ways:

• EV sales were up 35% in 2023. Yet Tesla and BYD accounted for nearly half of the EV growth in
2023, as BYD sales were up over 60% and Tesla sales were up nearly 40%. Conversely, the rest
of the industry relatively underperformed, up 27% y/y.

• This relative outperformance demonstrated ongoing share consolidation. BYD’s reinforced

itself as the global EV leader, with 21% share in ’23, up from 18% in ’22. Tesla also saw share
consolidation, ending ’23 with 13% global EV share, up from 12% in ’22.

Lastly, it’s worth considering contrasting momentum between Tesla and BYD. BYD saw share
momentum throughout the year, benefiting not only from China EV acceleration, but also from
increased exports; BYD’s EV share in 4Q was up ~70bps from 1Q, albeit its 22% 3Q share was the
high point for the year.

Conversely, Tesla saw share deceleration through the year, reflecting rising demand challenges.
Tesla saw sequential share declines in each quarter of 2023, with 16% global EV share in 1Q, yet
ending with 11% share in 4Q.

2023 EV Penetration Recap

Comparing 2023 to 2022, EV penetration is up across all of the major regions and in most of the
major countries, and EV sales set volume records last year (see table below).

We acknowledge the negative sentiment in the market, and believe that 2023 marked a step
back from EV euphoria seen in recent years. Nevertheless, we continued to expect continued
growth in the EV market in 2024, albeit with some reset on expectations.

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FIGURE 1. y/y EV penetration growth

2023 2022 y/y delta y/y % growth

China 33.9% 26.8% 713bps 27%
Europe 19.2% 18.7% 47bps 3%
Scandinavia 55.4% 52.6% 276bps 5%
Germany 23.2% 29.2% -603bps -21%
France 22.6% 18.3% 423bps 23%
UK 21.3% 20.4% 91bps 4%
Americas 7.9% 5.9% 201bps 34%
US 9.4% 7.1% 223bps 31%
Canada 8.9% 7.3% 160bps 22%
Global 15.8% 13.0% 281bps 22%

Source: Barclays Research, EV-Volumes

California EV Update - a solid year but some 4Q

shakiness
Last week the California Energy Commission published 4Q zero emission vehicle (ZEV) sales
statistics for the state. As California is by far the leader in US EV uptake, we look to the state for
early reads to the rest of the country.

Key facts include

• 2023 ZEV sales ~446k units, up 29% y/y vs 2022 ~346k units

° ZEV Mix: ~380k BEVs (85%), ~64k (14%) PHEVs

• 2023 ZEV penetration 25.0%, up ~620bps vs 2022 18.8%

° 4Q23 penetration 24.7% - slightly below full year pace

• Top 5 OEMs: Tesla (230k units), Hyundai Kia (33k), Stellantis (25k), BMW (22k), VW (21k)

• Bay Area dominated EV penetration - includes top 6 counties by penetration (>30%)

° Led by Santa Clara county (South Bay tech hub) 42% and Alameda county (includes
Fremont) 40%

Though full year 2023 results were strong, 4Q represented a slight step back, with EV
penetration of 24.7% marking the lowest point since 1Q (23.2%); 4Q penetration was down
~200bps q/q and ~30bps below the full year result (25.0%). 4Q ZEV sales of ~314k units also
marked the lowest point of the year, though in line with total light duty vehicles sales in
California also at their lowest. The downtick coincides with the EV slowdown narrative taking
hold, and we believe that if there was a near-term "maximum" for EV penetration in the current
environment it would become visible in California first. That said, it's just one quarter of data,
making this simply more of a read on the need for future monitoring on EV trends.

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FIGURE 2. EV Penetration by County

Top 15 Counties by EV penetration 2023 Pen%

45% 42% CA Average
40% US Average
40% 38% 37%

35% 33%

30%
25% 25%
20%
15%
10% 9.4%
5%
0%

Source: Barclays Research, California Energy Commission

FIGURE 3. EV Penetration by Quarter

Units Sold (1000's) EV Penetration by Quarter EV Penetration

600 30%
ICE ZEV 27%
25% 25%
500 23% 23% 25%
20%
400 20%
16% 16% 17%

300 15%

200 10%

100 5%

0 0%
4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23

Source: Barclays Research, California Energy Commission

January early look - expect a m/m downtick

Looking ahead to January, EV penetration rates are tracking to a m/m downtick when
aggregating across the major regions, likely returning global EV penetration to the 18-19%
range. China should hold flattish and the US appears it will be down slightly, yet most notable
declines appear set to come in Europe.

The early look at Europe implies a MSD % decline in m/m EV uptake, based upon reported data
from key markets.

• In Germany, January EV penetration was ~17%, down from ~30% in December but up from
15% in January 2023. BEV sales led the decline and were down ~1200bps m/m following the
abrupt early expiration of the BEV subsidy in December. PHEV had been a y/y drag all through

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2023 following PHEV subsidy expiration in Dec'22 and though PHEV sales were down m/m,
volumes were up 63% y/y as comps turned favorable.

• In the UK, January EV penetration was ~23%, down from ~28% in December but up from
~20% in January 2023. Note, subsidies in the the UK have been limited since mid-2022, thus
the ~500bps m/m down tick is likely due to delivery lumpiness and seasonality factors.

• In France, January EV penetration was ~25%, down from ~30% in December, but up from
~22% in January 2023. We see the ~500bps dropoff as expected given weaker seasonality and
January seeing the full impact of the EV subsidy changes that made ~1/3rd of EVs sold in
France ineligible.

Early data from the US indicates 9.8% EV penetration in January down ~20bps m/m (relative to
Wards' measure of EV penetration) but up ~70bps vs 2023 at 9.1%. Considering the loss of the
IRA credit on several top sellers (incl. Model 3, Mach-E, ID.4), the result is relatively solid.

Based on CPCA and company data, we expect China EV penetration to remain flattish. Our
colleagues covering China Technology noted in a recent report1 that January deliveries for the
EV companies they cover (BYDDF, LI, NIO, XPEV) were down sharply m/m, with Li Auto (-38%
m/m, +106% y/y), followed by market leader BYD (-41% m/m, +33% y/y), Nio (-44% m/m, +18%
y/y)), and Xpeng (-59% m/m, +58% y/y). CPCA reported January wholesales NEV sales were 700k
(down 37% m/m). While EV volumes are down quite significantly, we expect the overall market
to be down in tandem despite continued ICE discounts ahead of the Lunar New Year,
maintaining flattish penetration m/m.

December EV penetration - Another record high

despite macro and regulatory drag
December global EV sales penetration (as a % of new car sales) was 19.0%, up ~270bps on a y/y
basis and ~50bps m/m. The December penetration result marked a new all-time high for the
third consecutive month, and raised 2023 penetration to ~15.8%, up ~2.8pts y/y. Though global
penetration was up, regional performance was mixed as China saw a m/m decline and Europe
was down significantly y/y.

• China once again had the highest EV penetration rate among the major global regions at
36.8% in December, though penetration fell ~310bps m/m mostly attributable to BEV sales
(down ~290bps m/m). In absolute volume terms, BEV sales performed well (+12% m/m) and
set the high point of the year at 683k units. However, penetration was diluted by an incredibly
strong month for the Chinese market as a whole, up 26% m/m to 2.84mn, in part driven by
steep ICE discounting to clear out inventory, mirrored by several leading EV players as well.

• Europe EV penetration increased to 21.7% in December, up 70bps m/m, and continuing the
trend of BEV performance (+110bps) offset by PHEV declines (-40bps). We have clearly seen
the impacts of subsidy roll-offs in Europe in the back half of the year - Europe EV penetration
in the last 4 months of 2023 failed to surpass the subsidy driven yearly high-point of ~23.9% in
August. Furthermore, European EV penetration was down ~810bps y/y from 29.8% in
December 2022 due to subsidy roll-offs at the end of 2022.

• US EV penetration declined ~10bps m/m to 10.2% and did not continue the seasonal
December penetration increases seen in the past two years. US BEV penetration declined
~10bps for the second straight month to 8.2%, yet remained above 8% for all of 4Q.

1
https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FC2778167

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China continues to dominate global EV share, accounting for 59% of EV unit sales volume in
2023, with Europe at 23%, and the US at 10%. Compared to full-year 2022, US leads market
share improvement at +90bps while China is +50bps and Europe is -280bps. While Chinese and
European sales are higher on an absolute basis this year, their respective shares have come
down slightly as the US and RoW have gained ground.

Key EV Charts
FIGURE 4. Global EV uptake

Global Annual BEV & PHEV Penetration of Light Vehicles

Units in 000s
12%

10%

8%
BEV 9,985

PHEV
6%
BEV % of LV 7,680
PHEV % of LV
4%
4,828

2%
2,262 4,197
1,437 1,698 2,861
846 1,962
198 645 578 987
416 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December

Source: EV-Volumes

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FIGURE 5. China EV uptake

China Annual BEV & PHEV Penetration of Light Vehicles

Units in 000s
25%

20%

BEV 5,706 15%

PHEV
BEV % of LV
4,680 10%
PHEV % of LV

2,794 5%
2,707
886 970 1,098 1,517
285 533 623
274 238 239 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December

Source: EV-Volumes

FIGURE 6. Europe EV uptake

Europe Annual BEV & PHEV Penetration of Light Vehicles

Units in 000s
14%

12%

10%

BEV
2,220 8%
PHEV
1,663
BEV % of LV 1,284
6%
PHEV % of LV

779 4%

1,056 1,026 995 2%

387
227 625
108 156
100 182 203
111 150 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December

Source: EV-Volumes

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FIGURE 7. US EV uptake

US Annual BEV & PHEV Penetration of Light Vehicles

Units in 000s
8%

7%

6%

BEV 5%
1,177
PHEV
4%
BEV % of LV
PHEV % of LV 801 3%

484 2%

236
234 256 1%
107 288
64 84 178 189
72 122
55 44 73 93 82 72 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December

Source: EV-Volumes

FIGURE 8. Global monthly EV uptake FIGURE 9. China monthly EV uptake

Global Monthly BEV & PHEV Penetration of Light Vehicles China Monthly BEV & PHEV Penetration of Light Vehicles
BEV Units PHEV Units BEV % of LV PHEV % of LV 14% 30%
BEV Units PHEV Units BEV % of LV PHEV % of LV

Units in 000s Units in 000s 27%

12%
500 24%
362
432 10% 21%
293
371 377 355 399 410
279
244 258 18%
308 345 8%
325 200 231
223
282 201 15%
168
6% 175
246 12%
149
219 1,121
1,007 683 9%
943 919 925 934 922 4% 610
831 124 533 538 561
787 805 495 498
694 438 472 6%
590 428 403
451 2% 317
223 3%

0% 0%
Dec '22 Jan '23 Feb '23 Mar '23 Apr '23 May '23 Jun '23 Jul '23 Aug '23 Sep '23 Oct '23 Nov '23 Dec '23 Dec '22 Jan '23 Feb '23 Mar '23 Apr '23 May '23 Jun '23 Jul '23 Aug '23 Sep '23 Oct '23 Nov '23 Dec '23

Source: EV-Volumes Source: EV-Volumes

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FIGURE 10. Europe monthly EV uptake FIGURE 11. US monthly EV uptake

Europe Monthly BEV & PHEV Penetration of Light Vehicles US Monthly BEV & PHEV Penetration of Light Vehicles
Units in 000s 23% 9%
BEV Units PHEV Units BEV % of LV PHEV % of LV BEV Units PHEV Units BEV % of LV PHEV % of LV
Units in 000s
20% 8%
31
138 18% 7%
27 29
25 26
24 23
15% 21 6%
25
100 22
100 88 23
69 92 91 13% 15 18
5%
82 90
82 10% 4%
71
65 119
288 8% 107 106 3%
65 99 101 104 101 102
89 93
235 226 230 85 83 86
216 210 207 5%
183 180 2%
164
129 138
102 3% 1%

0% 0%
Dec '22 Jan '23 Feb '23 Mar '23 Apr '23 May '23 Jun '23 Jul '23 Aug '23 Sep '23 Oct '23 Nov '23 Dec '23 Dec '22 Jan '23 Feb '23 Mar '23 Apr '23 May '23 Jun '23 Jul '23 Aug '23 Sep '23 Oct '23 Nov '23 Dec '23

Source: EV-Volumes Source: EV-Volumes

FIGURE 12. Top OEMs by China BEV market share (Monthly) FIGURE 13. Top OEMs by China BEV market share (Annual)

Annual China BEV Market Share of Top 5 OEMs Based

Monthly China BEV Market Share of Top 5 OEMs Based
on YTD '23 Sales
on YTD '23 Sales
35%
30%

30% 25%
25%
20%
20%
15%
15%

10% 10%

5% 5%
0%
0%
CY 2017 CY 2018 CY 2019 CY 2020 CY 2021 CY 2022 CY 2023

BYD Tesla Inc. GM GAC Geely Auto Group

BYD Tesla Inc. GM GAC Geely Auto Group

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December

Source: EV-Volumes Source: EV-Volumes

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FIGURE 14. Top OEMs by Europe BEV market share (Monthly) FIGURE 15. Top OEMs by Europe BEV market share (Annual)

Annual Europe BEV Market Share of Top 5 OEMs Based

Monthly Europe BEV Market Share of Top 5 OEMs Based
on YTD '23 Sales on YTD '23 Sales

30% 45%
40%
25%
35%
20% 30%
25%
15%
20%
10% 15%
10%
5%
5%
0% 0%
CY 2017 CY 2018 CY 2019 CY 2020 CY 2021 CY 2022 CY 2023

VW Group Tesla Inc. Stellantis

VW Group Tesla Inc. Stellantis
R-N-M Alliance BMW Group
R-N-M Alliance BMW Group

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December

Source: EV-Volumes Source: EV-Volumes

FIGURE 16. Top OEMs by US BEV market share (Monthly) FIGURE 17. Top OEMs by US BEV market share (Annual)

Monthly US BEV Market Share of Top 5 OEMs Based Annual US BEV Market Share of Top 5 OEMs Based
on YTD '23 Sales on YTD '23 Sales
70% 100%
60%
80%
50%

40%
60%

30% 40%
20%
20%
10%

0% 0%
CY 2017 CY 2018 CY 2019 CY 2020 CY 2021 CY 2022 CY 2023

Tesla Inc. Hyundai Motor GM

Tesla Inc. Hyundai Motor GM
Ford VW Group
Ford VW Group

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December

Source: EV-Volumes Source: EV-Volumes

FIGURE 18. BEV market share of top 5 OEMs in China based on YTD '23 FIGURE 19. Top-selling BEV models in China based on YTD '23 sales
sales
Rank Sales Country Propulsion OEM Group CY 2023 China
1 China BEV BYD 25.6%
Rank Make Model Dec '23 CY 2023 Mkt Share
2 China BEV Tesla Inc. 10.7%
1 Tesla Model Y 60,055 456,394 8.0%
3 China BEV GM 9.5% 2 BYD Yuan Plus / Atto-3 BEV 30,799 338,490 5.9%
4 China BEV GAC 8.7% 3 BYD Dolphin BEV 24,969 332,955 5.8%
5 China BEV Geely Auto Group 7.0% 4 BYD Seagull BEV 50,525 263,177 4.6%
Total China BEV Other OEMs 38.5% 5 Wuling HongGuang Mini BEV 25,030 237,878 4.2%
6 Aion Y BEV 22,678 235,717 4.1%
7 Aion S / Aion S Plus BEV 15,216 220,904 3.9%
8 Wuling Bingo BEV 27,458 167,764 2.9%
9 Tesla Model 3 15,750 146,910 2.6%
10 Changan Lumin BEV 12,480 139,145 2.4%
Total Industry 683,365 5,705,683

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December
Source: EV-Volumes Source: EV-Volumes

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FIGURE 20. BEV market share of top 5 OEMs in Europe based on YTD FIGURE 21. Top-selling BEV models in Europe based on YTD '23 sales
'23 sales
Rank Sales Country Propulsion OEM Group CY 2023 Europe
1 Europe BEV VW Group 20.8%
Rank Make Model Dec '23 CY 2023 Mkt Share
2 Europe BEV Tesla Inc. 17.0%
1 Tesla Model Y 25,596 265,024 11.9%
3 Europe BEV Stellantis 14.0% 2 Tesla Model 3 13,147 103,983 4.7%
4 Europe BEV R-N-M Alliance 8.5% 3 VW ID.4 BEV 7,127 83,238 3.7%
5 Europe BEV BMW Group 8.4% 4 Skoda Enyaq BEV 8,377 78,747 3.5%
Total Europe BEV Other OEMs 31.3% 5 MG 4 / Mulan BEV 9,566 75,268 3.4%
6 Audi Q4 e-tron BEV 5,516 69,529 3.1%
7 Fiat 500 BEV 6,532 65,546 2.9%
8 VW ID.3 BEV 4,660 63,537 2.9%
9 Dacia Spring BEV 5,407 60,983 2.7%
10 Volvo XC40 BEV 4,514 52,250 2.3%
Total Industry 231,067 2,224,783

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December
Source: EV-Volumes Source: EV-Volumes

FIGURE 22. BEV market share of top 5 OEMs in US based on YTD '23 FIGURE 23. Top-selling BEV models in US based on YTD '23 sales
sales
Rank Sales Country Propulsion OEM Group CY 2023 USA
1 USA BEV Tesla Inc. 54.7%
Rank Make Model Dec '23 CY 2023 Mkt Share
2 USA BEV Hyundai Motor 8.0%
1 Tesla Model Y 33,000 377,853 32.1%
3 USA BEV GM 6.4% 2 Tesla Model 3 23,000 224,460 19.1%
4 USA BEV Ford 6.2% 3 Ford Mustang Mach-E BEV 4,863 40,771 3.5%
5 USA BEV VW Group 6.0% 4 Chevrolet Bolt EUV BEV 2,500 39,050 3.3%
Total USA BEV Other OEMs 18.7% 5 VW ID.4 BEV 4,071 37,789 3.2%
6 Hyundai Ioniq 5 BEV 3,261 33,918 2.9%
7 Rivian R1S BEV 2,900 26,680 2.3%
8 Tesla Model X 3,400 26,660 2.3%
9 Ford F-150 Lightning BEV 3,800 24,165 2.1%
10 Chevrolet Bolt BEV 1,043 22,995 2.0%
Total Industry 119,358 1,177,442

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December
Source: EV-Volumes Source: EV-Volumes

FIGURE 24. Global hybrid uptake

Global Annual FHEV & MHEV Penetration of Light Vehicles

Units in 000s
7%

6%

FHEV 5,588 5%

MHEV
4%
FHEV % of LV 4,330
3,760
MHEV % of LV 3%

2,873
2,728 2%
5,104
2,297 4,010 4,052
1%
2,152 2,668
1,834
1,703 1,602 1,765
698
1 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December

Source: EV-Volumes

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FIGURE 25. China hybrid uptake

China Annual FHEV & MHEV Penetration of Light Vehicles

Units in 000s
5%

4%

957

FHEV 922 3%
MHEV 716

FHEV % of LV
530 2%
MHEV % of LV

378
924
736 1%
262 628 646
436
151 120
0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December

Source: EV-Volumes

FIGURE 26. Europe hybrid uptake

Europe Annual FHEV & MHEV Penetration of Light Vehicles

Units in 000s
14%

12%

1,297 10%
1,050
FHEV
837 8%
MHEV
FHEV % of LV
6%
MHEV % of LV
627

2,223 4%

1,692 1,748
594
2%
938
456
410 370
159 186 270
0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December

Source: EV-Volumes

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FIGURE 27. US hybrid uptake

US Annual FHEV & MHEV Penetration of Light Vehicles

Units in 000s
8%

7%
FHEV

MHEV 6%

FHEV % of LV 1,176
5%
MHEV % of LV
802 768 4%

463
3%

402
2%

658 681 712

452 339 444 1%
384 347 365 365

67 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December

Source: EV-Volumes

FIGURE 28. PHEV market share of top 5 OEMs in China based on YTD FIGURE 29. Total EV market share of top 5 OEMs in China based on YTD
'23 sales '23 sales
Rank Sales Country Propulsion OEM Group CY 2023 Rank Sales Country Propulsion OEM Group CY 2023
1 China PHEV BYD 52.6% 1 China BEV + PHEV BYD 34.3%
2 China PHEV Li Auto (CHJ Automotive) 13.9% 2 China BEV + PHEV Tesla Inc. 7.3%
3 China PHEV Changan Automobile Group 6.5% 3 China BEV + PHEV Geely Auto Group 6.7%
4 China PHEV Geely Auto Group 5.9% 4 China BEV + PHEV GM 6.6%
5 China PHEV Great Wall Motors 5.7% 5 China BEV + PHEV GAC 6.2%
Total China PHEV Other OEMs 15.4% Total China BEV + PHEV Other OEMs 39.0%

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December
Source: EV-Volumes Source: EV-Volumes

FIGURE 30. PHEV market share of top 5 OEMs in Europe based on YTD FIGURE 31. Total EV market share of top 5 OEMs in Europe based on
'23 sales YTD '23 sales
Rank Sales Country Propulsion OEM Group CY 2023 Rank Sales Country Propulsion OEM Group CY 2023
1 Europe PHEV VW Group 19.3% 1 Europe BEV + PHEV VW Group 20.3%
2 Europe PHEV Stellantis 14.2% 2 Europe BEV + PHEV Stellantis 14.1%
3 Europe PHEV BMW Group 13.3% 3 Europe BEV + PHEV Tesla Inc. 11.7%
4 Europe PHEV Mercedes-Benz Group 12.7% 4 Europe BEV + PHEV BMW Group 9.9%
5 Europe PHEV Geely-Volvo Car Group 9.6% 5 Europe BEV + PHEV Mercedes-Benz Group 8.5%
Total Europe PHEV Other OEMs 31.0% Total Europe BEV + PHEV Other OEMs 35.5%

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December
Source: EV-Volumes Source: EV-Volumes

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FIGURE 32. PHEV market share of top 5 OEMs in US based on YTD '23 FIGURE 33. Total EV market share of top 5 OEMs in US based on YTD
sales '23 sales
Rank Sales Country Propulsion OEM Group CY 2023 Rank Sales Country Propulsion OEM Group CY 2023
1 USA PHEV Stellantis 49.6% 1 USA BEV + PHEV Tesla Inc. 44.0%
2 USA PHEV Toyota Motor Corp. 13.7% 2 USA BEV + PHEV Stellantis 9.7%
3 USA PHEV Hyundai Motor 8.8% 3 USA BEV + PHEV Hyundai Motor 8.2%
4 USA PHEV BMW Group 7.8% 4 USA BEV + PHEV Ford 5.7%
5 USA PHEV Geely-Volvo Car Group 7.6% 5 USA BEV + PHEV VW Group 5.2%
Total USA PHEV Other OEMs 12.4% Total USA BEV + PHEV Other OEMs 27.2%

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December
Source: EV-Volumes Source: EV-Volumes

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FIGURE 34. EV penetration around the globe through December 2023

BEV & PHEV Penetration Rates of Light Vehicle Sales by Country

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Norway
Iceland
Hong Kong
Sweden
Finland
Denmark
Netherlands
Belgium
China
Luxembourg
Portugal
Switzerland
New Zealand
Austria
Israel
Germany
Ireland
France
UK
Singapore
Taiwan
South Korea
Romania
Thailand
Spain
BEV % of LV PHEV % of LV
Greece
Latvia
Slovenia
Lithuania
Hungary
USA
Canada
Australia
Italy
Estonia
Poland
Slovakia
Turkey
Czech Rep.
Bulgaria
Ukraine
Croatia
UAE
Colombia
Japan
Brazil
Indonesia
India
Malaysia
Mexico
Other Countries
Chile
Russia
South Africa
Saudi Arabia
Philippines

Source: EV-Volumes

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FIGURE 35. Breakout of EV sales

Regional Mix of BEV & PHEV Sales

USA Europe China RoW
100%
8% 6% 9% 7% 7% 6% 5% 6% 8%
13%
90%
80%
20% 35% 41%
70% 47% 50%
51% 56% 53% 59%
60% 59%

50% 30%

40% 36%
28% 43%
30% 24% 20% 26% 34%
20% 26% 23%
37%
10% 21% 20% 16% 17% 14% 10% 10% 9% 10%
0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December

Source: EV-Volumes

FIGURE 36. Norway remains key example of EV uptake

Norway Annual BEV & PHEV Penetration of Light

Vehicles
Units in 000s 80%

70%
BEV
60%
PHEV

BEV % of LV 50%
119
PHEV % of 145 40%
LV
79 113 30%

48 62
34 20%
25
26 38 10%
18 29 27 29
21 19 16
8 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December

Source: EV-Volumes

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FIGURE 37. US IRA summary features

Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) Overview
- Amended the Clean Vehicle Credit to require that final assembly of electric vehicle must be completed in North America
- Removed the previous manufacturer sales cap that phased out credit eligibility once 200k qualifying vehicles had been sold by OEM
- Detail regarding qualifying requirements expected in Mar. '23, potentially enabling greater credits for certain vehicles until the guidance is issued

Purchase Qualifications
- Must be bought or leased new with a minimum traction battery of 7kWh
- MSRP must not exceed $80,000 for SUVs/trucks and $55,000 for cars. Used vehicle sale price may not exceed $25,000
- Used vehicles must be at least 2 years old and have not been claimed for a tax credit previously
- Income restrictions: new vehicle $150k (Single), $300k (Married); used vehicle $75k (Single), $150k (Married)

% of Value Requirements
- Critical Minerals (must be extracted or processed in the US / free-trade agreement partner, or recycled in NA): 40% by 2023 to 80% by 2027. Starting in 2025 critical minerals cannot be sourced from Foreign Entities o
- Battery Components (must be manufactured or assembled in North America): 50% by 2023 to 100% by 2029
- Starting in 2024 for battery components and 2025 for critical materials, respective inputs cannot be sourced from Foreign Entities of Concern - defined roughly as companies that are (1)
incorporated or headquartered in, (2) >=25% directly or indirectly controlled by the government of, or (3) contracting or licensing technology without certain rights over operations from,
several countries including China.

Consumer Credit
- Total New Vehicle Credit: $7,500 (battery component credit & critical materials credit $3,750 each)
- Used vehicle credit: lesser of $4,000 or 30% of vehicle price

Source: Barclays Research, Internal Revenue Service Guidelines (IRS.Gov)

FIGURE 38. Select European Countries EV Incentives

Europe EV Incentives

Bonus for a new BEV or FCEV:

• €5k for households if vehicle ≤ €47k
• €3k for legal persons if vehicle ≤ €47k

France
Scrappage scheme for a second-hand or new BEV or FCEV of ≤ €47k: up to €6k, based on income

New incentives beginning January 2024 granting up to €7k based on household income, with more stringent rules
around EV carbon footprint

Subsidy scheme (SEPP) for individuals to buy/lease a small or compact BEV car, new or used

Netherlands
Purchase tax exemption for zero-emission cars until 2024
Motor Vehicle Tax exemption for zero-emission cars and 50% Motor Vehicle Tax for PHEVs until 2024

As of January 1, the 25% VAT exemption on the purchase of new electric vehicles applies only to the first 500k Norwegian
Norway kroner of the price
EVs pay maximum 70% of the total amount on toll roads

Source: ACEA, European Commission, Automotive News Europe

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FIGURE 39. Vehicles qualifying for the consumer EV credits in Inflation Reduction Act on the standards for 2023 vs. tightened 2024 standards

Model Year OEM Brand Model/Trim 2023 Credit Amount 2024 Credit Amount

2022-2024 Ford Ford F-150 Lightning $7,500 $7,500

2022-2023 Ford Lincoln Aviator Grand Touring PHEV $7,500 $0
2022-2023 GM Chevrolet Bolt EV $7,500 $7,500
2022-2023 GM Chevrolet Bolt EUV $7,500 $7,500
2023-2024 GM Cadillac Lyriq $7,500 $7,500
2024 GM Chevrolet Silverado $7,500 $7,500
2024 GM Chevrolet Blazer $7,500 $7,500
2024 GM Chevrolet Equinox $7,500 $7,500
2022-2024 Stellantis Chrysler Pacifica PHEV $7,500 $7,500
2022-2023 Tesla Tesla Model 3 (SR/LR) $7,500 $0
2023-2024 Tesla Tesla Model 3 (P) $7,500 $7,500
2023 Tesla Tesla Model Y (RWD) $7,500 $0
2024 Tesla Tesla Model Y (RWD) $7,500 $7,500
2023-2024 Tesla Tesla Model Y (LR/P) $7,500 $7,500
2023-2024 Tesla Tesla Model X (LR) $7,500 $7,500
2024 Tesla Tesla Cybertruck AWD $7,500 $0
2023 VW VW ID.4 $7,500 $7,500
2024 BMW BMW X5 x50 PHEV $3,750 $0
2022-2023 Ford Ford E-Transit $3,750 $0
2022-2023 Ford Ford Mustang Mach-E $3,750 $0
2022-2024 Ford Ford Escape PHEV $3,750 $3,750
2022-2024 Ford Lincoln Corsair Grand Touring PHEV $3,750 $3,750
2024 Nissan Nissan Leaf S / SV PLUS $3,750 $0
2023-2024 Rivian Rivian R1S Dual/Quad Motor, Large $3,750 $3,750
2023-2024 Rivian Rivian R1T Dual/Quad Motor, Large/Max $3,750 $3,750
2022-2024 Stellantis Jeep Wrangler PHEV $3,750 $3,750
2022-2024 Stellantis Jeep Grand Cherokee PHEV $3,750 $3,750
2023-2024 VW Audi Q5 PHEV $3,750 $0

Source: Barclays Research, US Dept. of Energy

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Key Tesla Charts

FIGURE 40. Tesla share trends

Monthly Tesla BEV Market Share by Region

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
'21 '22 '22 '22 '22 '22 '22 '22 '22 '22 '22 '22 '22 '23 '23 '23 '23 '23 '23 '23 '23 '23 '23 '23 '23

USA Europe China

Source: EV-Volumes

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FIGURE 41. Tesla sales by region & model, annually

Make Model CY 2015 CY 2016 CY 2017 CY 2018 CY 2019 CY 2020 CY 2021 CY 2022 CY 2023
Tesla Model S 49,996 51,060 55,267 50,412 27,743 21,810 23,188 37,667 25,357
Tesla Model X 214 25,256 46,796 49,532 39,204 32,799 1,754 29,036 42,372
Tesla Model Y - - - - - 79,725 410,982 771,297 1,211,601
Tesla Model 3 - - 1,766 146,056 300,292 365,176 500,386 476,470 529,287
Total by Model 50,210 76,316 103,829 246,000 367,239 499,510 936,310 1,314,470 1,808,617

Sales Country CY 2015 CY 2016 CY 2017 CY 2018 CY 2019 CY 2020 CY 2021 CY 2022 CY 2023
Americas 26,229 49,617 53,799 198,029 197,090 224,455 385,147 557,921 699,225
USA 24,219 47,119 50,139 188,870 176,695 201,639 346,623 511,429 644,548
Canada 2,010 2,498 3,478 9,026 19,775 21,340 35,460 41,820 45,312
Other Americas - - 182 133 620 1,476 3,064 4,672 9,365
Europe 16,925 16,254 28,241 29,667 111,771 99,642 170,128 233,059 378,981
Germany 1,582 1,904 3,332 1,904 10,710 16,693 39,717 69,463 63,482
UK 1,470 2,303 4,487 3,016 13,145 24,767 35,553 54,622 49,566
Netherlands 1,891 2,149 3,317 8,610 30,911 8,967 4,154 4,855 19,420
Norway 4,039 3,481 8,460 8,614 18,798 8,737 20,397 21,287 25,408
France 708 944 1,388 1,252 7,442 7,372 26,445 29,199 63,041
Switzerland 1,556 1,701 2,022 1,460 6,055 6,042 6,483 8,667 8,724
Sweden 996 1,125 1,283 1,220 6,194 4,924 8,080 9,182 20,361
Denmark 2,736 176 98 95 2,734 4,720 3,427 3,008 22,240
Italy 134 240 482 464 2,451 3,802 6,043 5,594 16,356
Austria 492 717 900 473 2,966 3,229 4,702 5,252 8,417
Belgium 820 859 1,151 882 3,698 2,980 3,180 4,795 16,042
Spain 10 55 387 326 2,051 1,467 3,208 4,596 13,252
Portugal 13 29 64 407 1,979 1,413 1,508 2,616 9,323
Other Europe 478 571 870 944 2,637 4,529 7,231 9,923 43,349
China 3,692 8,377 14,829 15,061 47,051 147,090 320,863 440,968 610,311
RoW 3,364 2,068 6,960 3,243 11,327 28,323 60,172 82,522 120,135
South Korea - 2 303 587 2,430 11,826 17,821 14,571 16,248
Australia 600 450 1,300 1,565 4,205 3,430 12,198 19,597 46,116
Other RoW 2,764 1,616 5,357 1,091 4,692 13,067 30,153 48,354 57,771
Global Total 50,210 76,316 103,829 246,000 367,239 499,510 936,310 1,314,470 1,808,652

Note: YTD 2023 is based on results through December

Source: EV-Volumes

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FIGURE 42. Tesla sales by region & model, quarterly

Make Model Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Q2 '22 Q3 '22 Q4 '22 Q1 '23 Q2 '23 Q3 '23 Q4 '23
Tesla Model S 11,390 10,539 9,781 8,777 8,570 4,724 6,905 5,720 8,008
Tesla Model X 360 4,156 6,377 9,893 8,610 5,981 12,389 10,301 13,701
Tesla Model Y 156,765 167,833 147,056 207,970 248,438 280,101 299,275 312,772 319,453
Tesla Model 3 139,920 127,645 91,870 117,253 139,702 131,936 147,443 106,383 143,525
Total by Model 308,435 310,173 255,084 343,893 405,320 422,742 466,012 435,176 484,687

Sales Country Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Q2 '22 Q3 '22 Q4 '22 Q1 '23 Q2 '23 Q3 '23 Q4 '23
Americas 125,167 125,324 129,166 141,294 162,137 164,574 179,454 167,631 187,566
USA 111,273 114,051 116,782 129,078 151,518 154,143 167,040 156,580 166,785
Canada 12,911 10,200 11,314 11,030 9,276 8,169 10,008 8,649 18,486
Other Americas 983 1,073 1,070 1,186 1,343 2,262 2,406 2,402 2,295
Europe 54,986 59,560 26,207 53,549 93,743 94,609 93,249 94,948 96,175
Germany 13,743 14,408 3,851 19,699 31,505 20,654 15,528 15,023 12,277
UK 12,705 15,547 5,747 10,924 22,404 13,355 12,785 13,589 9,837
Netherlands 2,191 560 531 889 2,875 4,483 4,738 4,613 5,586
Norway 6,187 5,068 2,984 4,559 8,676 9,474 7,376 4,424 4,134
France 7,370 8,481 3,263 4,499 12,956 12,827 14,352 13,639 22,223
Switzerland 2,289 1,959 2,270 2,162 2,276 1,568 2,745 2,235 2,176
Sweden 2,749 3,133 2,372 1,442 2,235 4,683 6,284 5,372 4,022
Denmark 1,336 1,011 332 824 841 5,225 5,193 4,546 7,276
Italy 1,160 1,367 1,184 1,216 1,827 4,547 3,967 3,241 4,601
Austria 965 1,433 933 1,823 1,063 2,713 2,182 1,844 1,678
Belgium 858 1,708 516 839 1,732 4,471 3,739 3,875 3,957
Spain 862 1,413 727 1,139 1,317 2,077 3,230 2,927 5,018
Portugal 477 550 500 572 994 2,097 2,011 2,017 3,198
Other Europe 2,094 2,922 997 2,962 3,042 6,435 9,119 17,603 10,192
China 115,632 107,621 90,016 121,712 121,619 137,900 159,480 141,223 171,708
RoW 12,650 17,668 9,695 27,338 27,821 25,659 33,829 31,374 29,273
South Korea 1,540 2,702 4,044 6,286 1,539 1,302 2,429 5,315 7,202
Australia 2,100 4,417 236 9,380 5,564 10,407 15,170 12,420 8,119
Other RoW 9,010 10,549 5,415 11,672 20,718 13,950 16,230 13,639 13,952
Global Total 308,435 310,173 255,084 343,893 405,320 422,742 466,012 435,176 484,722

Source: EV-Volumes

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FIGURE 43. Tesla sales by region & model, monthly

Make Model Dec '22 Jan '23 Feb '23 Mar '23 Apr '23 May '23 Jun '23 Jul '23 Aug '23 Sep '23 Oct '23 Nov '23 Dec '23
Tesla Model S 4,494 1,437 1,147 2,140 1,652 1,947 3,306 1,413 1,772 2,535 1,580 2,728 3,700
Tesla Model X 4,116 1,675 1,675 2,631 2,627 3,102 6,660 2,751 3,391 4,159 3,146 4,321 6,234
Tesla Model Y 102,173 53,720 80,700 145,681 73,707 93,193 132,375 75,699 115,715 121,358 78,252 112,791 128,410
Tesla Model 3 63,330 37,994 36,051 57,891 38,303 40,146 68,994 33,747 46,593 26,043 32,013 54,616 56,896
Total by Model 174,113 94,826 119,573 208,343 116,289 138,388 211,335 113,610 167,471 154,095 114,991 174,456 195,240

Sales Country Dec '22 Jan '23 Feb '23 Mar '23 Apr '23 May '23 Jun '23 Jul '23 Aug '23 Sep '23 Oct '23 Nov '23 Dec '23
Americas 63,896 54,174 55,196 55,204 54,919 55,920 68,615 55,917 55,586 56,128 59,243 59,693 68,630
USA 60,342 51,875 51,928 50,340 52,120 52,049 62,871 52,900 51,450 52,230 52,250 52,610 61,925
Canada 2,966 1,899 2,489 3,781 2,338 3,069 4,601 2,548 3,256 2,845 6,500 6,286 5,700
Other Americas 588 400 779 1,083 461 802 1,143 469 880 1,053 493 797 1,005
Europe 55,846 9,480 23,394 61,735 14,452 29,869 48,928 18,953 36,918 39,077 19,127 37,400 39,648
Germany 17,501 4,241 7,710 8,703 2,420 5,265 7,843 3,904 6,903 4,216 3,353 4,923 4,001
UK 16,368 579 2,283 10,493 1,813 3,439 7,533 3,141 4,021 6,427 2,677 1,648 5,512
Netherlands 2,726 591 725 3,167 758 1,264 2,716 755 1,988 1,870 1,085 2,116 2,385
Norway 5,405 21 1,551 7,902 977 2,949 3,450 220 1,704 2,500 678 1,688 1,768
France 5,413 741 3,376 8,710 1,824 4,012 8,516 2,717 5,365 5,557 3,262 9,389 9,572
Switzerland 1,448 124 195 1,249 460 912 1,373 452 793 990 305 790 1,081
Sweden 1,641 225 518 3,940 742 2,477 3,065 492 1,716 3,164 721 1,512 1,789
Denmark 379 499 1,051 3,675 932 1,431 2,830 830 1,297 2,419 780 2,427 4,069
Italy 689 326 1,311 2,910 740 1,477 1,750 207 2,128 906 908 2,710 983
Austria 490 373 853 1,487 410 848 924 366 880 598 339 752 587
Belgium 1,227 610 814 3,047 870 997 1,872 1,237 1,508 1,130 1,108 1,464 1,385
Spain 600 357 672 1,048 318 1,160 1,752 744 1,456 727 755 2,472 1,791
Portugal 421 230 877 990 282 867 862 496 1,167 354 256 1,759 1,183
Other Europe 1,538 563 1,458 4,414 1,906 2,771 4,442 3,392 5,992 8,219 2,900 3,750 3,542
China 41,926 26,843 33,923 77,134 40,795 42,714 75,971 31,741 65,328 44,154 28,735 65,265 77,708
RoW 12,445 4,329 7,060 14,270 6,123 9,885 17,821 6,999 9,639 14,736 7,886 12,108 9,279
South Korea 199 2 42 1,258 114 424 1,891 118 696 4,501 2,840 3,563 799
Australia 2,266 3,313 3,516 3,578 3,676 4,476 7,018 3,934 3,309 5,177 1,988 3,939 2,192
Other RoW 9,980 1,014 3,502 9,434 2,333 4,985 8,912 2,947 5,634 5,058 3,058 4,606 6,288
Global Total 174,113 94,826 119,573 208,343 116,289 138,388 211,335 113,610 167,471 154,095 114,991 174,466 195,265

Source: EV-Volumes

FIGURE 44. Tesla US sales by model, monthly

Make Model Dec '22 Jan '23 Feb '23 Mar '23 Apr '23 May '23 Jun '23 Jul '23 Aug '23 Sep '23 Oct '23 Nov '23 Dec '23
Tesla Model S 2,350 900 1,000 1,000 1,000 900 1,390 1,000 1,250 1,350 1,150 2,100 2,500
Tesla Model X 2,600 1,350 1,500 1,410 1,500 2,100 2,600 2,100 2,200 2,400 2,600 3,500 3,400
Tesla Model Y 30,420 30,005 31,228 31,430 30,800 30,507 33,053 32,900 32,000 31,430 31,000 30,500 33,000
Tesla Model 3 24,972 19,620 18,200 16,500 18,820 18,542 25,828 16,900 16,000 17,050 17,500 16,500 23,000
Total by Model 60,342 51,875 51,928 50,340 52,120 52,049 62,871 52,900 51,450 52,230 52,250 52,600 61,900

Source: EV-Volumes

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FIGURE 45. Tesla China production and sales (retail & export), annually & quarterly
Tesla China Data
Make Model Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Q2 '22 Q3 '22 Q4 '22 Q1 '23 Q2 '23 Q3 '23 Q4 '23 CY 2021 CY 2022 CY 2023
Wholesales
Model 3 85,242 76,684 39,034 58,601 81,455 75,340 84,635 59,991 80,931 272,972 255,774 300,897
Model Y 92,855 105,490 73,549 129,716 146,336 153,982 162,582 162,526 167,755 200,131 455,091 646,845
Mix: Model 3 48% 42% 35% 31% 36% 33% 34% 27% 33% 58% 36% 32%
Mix: Model Y 52% 58% 65% 69% 64% 67% 66% 73% 67% 42% 64% 68%
Total Wholesales 178,097 182,174 112,583 188,317 227,791 229,322 247,217 222,517 248,686 473,103 710,865 947,742
China Production
Model 3 84,938 75,456 39,504 61,402 86,291 69,648 84,222 62,175 89,364 279,882 262,653 305,409
Model Y 94,340 103,431 75,725 136,010 148,850 148,891 159,546 165,095 170,795 205,953 464,016 644,327
Mix: Model 3 47% 42% 34% 31% 37% 32% 35% 27% 34% 58% 36% 32%
Mix: Model Y 53% 58% 66% 69% 63% 68% 65% 73% 66% 42% 64% 68%
Total China Production 179,278 178,887 115,229 197,412 235,141 218,539 243,768 227,270 260,159 485,835 726,669 949,736
Exports
Model 3 46,103 43,065 8,744 23,471 56,038 32,558 37,244 36,544 47,281 122,082 131,318 153,627
Model Y 15,935 30,809 14,564 44,270 50,134 59,335 53,297 46,349 31,470 30,278 139,777 190,451
Mix: Model 3 74% 58% 38% 35% 53% 35% 41% 44% 60% 80% 48% 45%
Mix: Model Y 26% 42% 62% 65% 47% 65% 59% 56% 40% 20% 52% 55%
Total Exports 62,038 73,874 23,308 67,741 106,172 91,893 90,541 82,893 78,751 152,360 271,095 344,078
China Retail
Model 3 39,139 33,619 30,290 35,130 25,417 42,782 47,391 23,447 33,650 150,890 124,456 147,270
Model Y 76,920 74,681 58,985 85,446 96,202 94,647 109,285 116,177 136,285 169,853 315,314 456,394
Mix: Model 3 34% 31% 34% 29% 21% 31% 30% 17% 20% 47% 28% 24%
Mix: Model Y 66% 69% 66% 71% 79% 69% 70% 83% 80% 53% 72% 76%
Total China Retail 116,059 108,300 89,275 120,576 121,619 137,429 156,676 139,624 169,935 320,743 439,770 603,664

Y/Y Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Q2 '22 Q3 '22 Q4 '22 Q1 '23 Q2 '23 Q3 '23 Q4 '23 CY 2021 CY 2022 CY 2023
Wholesales
Model 3 48% 45% -38% -19% -4% -2% 117% 2% -1% 102% -6% 18%
Model Y 542% 147% 112% 58% 46% 121% 25% 15% 127% 42%
Total Wholesales 209% 163% 22% 41% 28% 26% 120% 18% 9% 249% 50% 33%
China Production
Model 3 29% 23% -40% -9% 2% -8% 113% 1% 4% 86% -6% 16%
Model Y 14065% 480% 134% 121% 58% 44% 111% 21% 15% 30824% 125% 39%
Total China Production 170% 126% 17% 53% 31% 22% 112% 15% 11% 222% 50% 31%
Exports
Model 3 172160% -72% -48% 22% -24% 326% 56% -16% 8% 17%
Model Y 209% 215% 93% 266% 5% -37% 362% 36%
Total Exports 295396% -24% 14% 71% 24% 288% 22% -26% 78% 27%
China Retail
Model 3 -32% -36% -5% 31% -35% 27% 56% -33% 32% 11% -18% 18%
Model Y 355% 98% 83% 25% 27% 85% 36% 42% 86% 45%
Total China Retail 102% 56% 45% 64% 5% 27% 75% 16% 40% 137% 37% 37%

Source: ThinkerCar

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FIGURE 46. Tesla China production and sales (retail & export), monthly
Tesla China Data
Make Model Dec '22 Jan '23 Feb '23 Mar '23 Apr '23 May '23 Jun '23 Jul '23 Aug '23 Sep '23 Oct '23 Nov '23 Dec '23
Wholesales
Model 3 20,046 25,148 22,990 27,202 26,783 27,215 30,637 20,324 18,843 20,824 24,951 23,999 31,981
Model Y 35,750 40,903 51,412 61,667 49,059 50,480 63,043 43,961 65,316 53,249 47,164 58,433 62,158
Mix: Model 3 36% 38% 31% 31% 35% 35% 33% 32% 22% 28% 35% 29% 34%
Mix: Model Y 64% 62% 69% 69% 65% 65% 67% 68% 78% 72% 65% 71% 66%
Total Wholesales 55,796 66,051 74,402 88,869 75,842 77,695 93,680 64,285 84,159 74,073 72,115 82,432 94,139
China Production
Model 3 21,488 21,345 20,493 27,810 30,088 26,694 27,440 22,741 21,330 18,104 28,547 32,331 28,486
Model Y 37,293 36,925 51,839 60,127 54,859 51,762 52,925 57,604 59,502 47,989 54,959 58,471 57,365
Mix: Model 3 37% 37% 28% 32% 35% 34% 34% 28% 26% 27% 34% 36% 33%
Mix: Model Y 63% 63% 72% 68% 65% 66% 66% 72% 74% 73% 66% 64% 67%
Total China Production 58,781 58,270 72,332 87,937 84,947 78,456 80,365 80,345 80,832 66,093 83,506 90,802 85,851
Exports
Model 3 7,507 12,489 14,593 5,476 13,587 15,761 7,896 12,533 5,266 18,745 22,678 8,372 16,231
Model Y 6,363 26,719 25,886 6,730 22,299 19,426 11,572 20,329 14,199 11,821 20,811 8,556 2,103
Mix: Model 3 54% 32% 36% 45% 38% 45% 41% 38% 27% 61% 52% 49% 89%
Mix: Model Y 46% 68% 64% 55% 62% 55% 59% 62% 73% 39% 48% 51% 11%
Total Exports 13,870 39,208 40,479 12,206 35,886 35,187 19,468 32,862 19,465 30,566 43,489 16,928 18,334
China Retail
Model 3 12,539 12,659 8,397 21,726 13,196 11,454 22,741 7,791 13,577 2,079 2,273 15,627 15,750
Model Y 29,387 14,184 25,526 54,937 26,760 31,054 51,471 23,632 51,117 41,428 26,353 49,877 60,055
Mix: Model 3 30% 47% 25% 28% 33% 27% 31% 25% 21% 5% 8% 24% 21%
Mix: Model Y 70% 53% 75% 72% 67% 73% 69% 75% 79% 95% 92% 76% 79%
Total China Retail 41,926 26,843 33,923 76,663 39,956 42,508 74,212 31,423 64,694 43,507 28,626 65,504 75,805

Y/Y Dec '22 Jan '23 Feb '23 Mar '23 Apr '23 May '23 Jun '23 Jul '23 Aug '23 Sep '23 Oct '23 Nov '23 Dec '23
Wholesales
Model 3 -34% -5% -5% 5% 4752% 124% 16% 63% 27% -34% -17% -21% 3%
Model Y -12% 23% 59% 55% 5010% 152% 20% 179% 5% 3% 14% 41% -10%
Total Wholesales -21% 10% 32% 35% 4916% 142% 19% 128% 9% -11% 1% 15% -6%
China Production
Model 3 -24% -28% -11% 23% 611% 137% 14% 102% 7% -40% -11% 0% -12%
Model Y -3% -4% 60% 83% 741% 132% 13% 110% 5% -7% -1% 5% 2%
Total China Production -12% -14% 31% 59% 690% 134% 13% 108% 6% -19% -5% 4% -3%
Exports
Model 3 3914% -47% -25% 93% 1307% 8% -54% 4428% -17% -69% -23%
Model Y 10871% 58% 87% 11117% 37% 2743% 151% -54% 131% -23% -68% -87%
Total Exports 5561% -3% 22% 20243% 58% 1911% 66% -54% 454% -20% -69% -51%
China Retail
Model 3 -58% 324% 82% -17% 2291% 190% -12% 849% 301% -93% -19% 456% 56%
Model Y -27% -13% 37% 38% 2688% 429% -1% 209% 64% -11% 83% 247% 15%
Total China Retail -41% 39% 46% 17% 2543% 333% -5% 271% 88% -44% 66% 281% 21%

Source: ThinkerCar

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Tesla, Inc. (TSLA, 05-Feb-2024, USD 181.06), Equal Weight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/J/K/L/M
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Barclays | U.S. Autos & Mobility

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Below is the list of companies that constitute the "industry coverage universe":
U.S. Autos & Mobility
Adient plc (ADNT) American Axle & Mfg. (AXL) Aptiv plc (APTV)
Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) Dana Incorporated (DAN)

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Barclays | U.S. Autos & Mobility

Fisker Inc. (FSR) Ford Motor (F) General Motors (GM)

Lear Corporation (LEA) Lion Electric Company (LEV) Magna International Inc. (MGA)
Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY) Polestar Automotive (PSNY) Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN)
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Visteon Corp. (VC)

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Barclays Bank PLC, DIFC Branch (Barclays Bank, DIFC)

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Barclays | U.S. Autos & Mobility

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA / TSLA)

Stock Rating: EQUAL WEIGHT
Industry View: POSITIVE
Closing Price: USD 181.06 (05-Feb-2024)

Rating and Price Target Chart - USD (as of 05-Feb-2024)

Currency=USD

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50
Jul-2021 Jan-2022 Jul-2022 Jan-2023 Jul-2023 Jan-2024

Closing Price Target Price Rating Change Drop Coverage

Source: IDC, Barclays Research

Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting

Publication Closing Price* Rating Adjusted Price

Date Target
25-Jan-2024 207.83 225.00
17-Jan-2024 219.91 250.00
21-Jun-2023 274.45 Equal Weight 260.00
20-Apr-2023 180.59 220.00
17-Apr-2023 185.00 230.00
14-Feb-2023 209.25 Overweight 275.00
19-Jul-2022 240.55 Coverage
Dropped
15-Jul-2022 240.07 126.67
09-Jun-2022 232.23 123.33
04-Jan-2022 383.20 108.33
14-Oct-2021 272.77 100.00
On 06-Feb-2021, prior to any intra-day change that may have been
published, the rating for this security was Underweight, and the adjusted
price target was 76.67.
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research
*This is the closing price referenced in the publication, which may not be
the last available closing price at the time of publication.
Historical stock prices and price targets may have been adjusted for stock
splits and dividends.

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previous 12 months.
CD: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker in debt securities issued by Tesla, Inc..
CE: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker in equity securities issued by Tesla, Inc..

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Barclays | U.S. Autos & Mobility

D: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from Tesla, Inc. in the past 12 months.
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Valuation Methodology: We value TSLA using a probability-weighted scenario analysis of 2030, reflecting the potential binary outcomes for the
stock. We forecast a model case, and then flex the results into bull/bear and uberbull/uberbear scenarios, each of which generating an independent
earnings estimate. From there we assign an EPS multiple and discount rate, deriving a share price for each scenario. Finally, we assess the probability
of each earnings / share price scenario under a base case, upside case, and downside case, generating a probability-weighted average target price
under each case. This process, using a 8% discount rate (over 6 years) and a 27x base case EPS multiple, generates our Equal Weight rating and $225
price target. Further, the wide range of potential 2030 outcomes for TSLA from 10mn units sold at the high end to 3mn at the low end leads to our
upside and downside scenarios of $425 and $125, respectively. Our use of a 8% discount rate reflects relatively de-risked path to 2030 for TSLA, at
least compared to its new-entrant EV peers. Our 27x 2030 EPS multiple reflects TSLA's status as the premium global EV pure play, albeit with a slowing
growth profile due to its scale at that point. Our base case multiple also reflects the optionality within TSLA related to upside potential from the
successful transition of FSD to L4 capabilities, as well as inflection of meaningful software/services recurring revenue.
Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Valuation and Price Target: Upside risks include: 1) Continuation of
momentum-driven rally and broader AI/tech outperformance; 2) Announcements of breakthroughs in delivery of FSD and/or Dojo; 3) An earlier/
quicker-than-expected ramp of the Cybertruck; 4) An uptick in 4680 cell volume production progress Downside risks include: 1) Continued demand
weakening that requires larger-than-expected incremental price cuts; 2) A longer-than-expected holding of interest rates and/or incremental rate
increases by the Federal Reserve challenging the long-dated narratives of TSLA; 3) A sharp reversion of AI-related and tech stock outperformance; 4)
Regulatory action towards TSLA Autopilot/FSD; 5) Increasing competition from EV offerings of legacy OEMs and fellow new-entrants creating TSLA
share losses or prompting incremental price cuts
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6 February 2024 29
Barclays | U.S. Autos & Mobility

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Barclays | U.S. Autos & Mobility

U.S. Autos & Mobility

Josh Cho Daniel Lai
+1 212 526 7156 +1 212 526 8926
joshua.cho@barclays.com daniel.lai@barclays.com
BCI, US BCI, US

European Autos & Auto Parts

Henning Cosman Erwann Dagorne Arya Ghassemieh
+44 (0)20 3134 3106 +33 (0)1 4458 3664 +44 (0)20 7773 3442
henning.cosman@barclays.com erwann.dagorne@barclays.com arya.ghassemieh@barclays.com
Barclays, UK BBI, Paris Barclays, UK

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