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Asymmetric Warfare in South Asia The Causes and
Consequences of the Kargil Conflict 1st Edition Peter R.
Lavoy (Ed.) Digital Instant Download
Author(s): Peter R. Lavoy (ed.)
ISBN(s): 9780521767217, 0521767210
Edition: 1
File Details: PDF, 2.73 MB
Year: 2009
Language: english
Asymmetric Warfare in South Asia

The 1999 conflict between India and Pakistan near the town of Kargil in
contested Kashmir was the first military clash between two nuclear-
armed powers since the 1969 Sino-Soviet war. Kargil was a landmark
event not because of its duration or casualties, but because it contained a
very real risk of nuclear escalation. Until the Kargil conflict, academic
and policy debates over nuclear deterrence and proliferation occurred
largely on the theoretical level. This deep analysis of the conflict offers
scholars and policymakers a rare account of how nuclear-armed states
interact during a military crisis. Written by analysts from India, Pakistan,
and the United States, this unique book draws extensively on primary
sources, including unprecedented access to Indian, Pakistani, and US
government officials and military officers who were actively involved in
the conflict. This is the first rigorous and objective account of the causes,
conduct, and consequences of the Kargil conflict.

p e t e r r . l a v o y is the Deputy Director of National Intelligence for

Analysis. Previously he served as Director of the Center for
Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School and
Director of Counterproliferation Policy in the Office of the Secretary
of Defense.
Asymmetric Warfare
in South Asia
The Causes and Consequences of the Kargil
Conflict

Edited by
Peter R. Lavoy
cambridge university press
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore,
São Paulo, Delhi, Dubai, Tokyo
Cambridge University Press
The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK

Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press,

New York

www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521767217

© Cambridge University Press 2009

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception

and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without
the written permission of Cambridge University Press.

First published 2009

Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge

A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library

ISBN 978-0-521-76721-7 Hardback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for

the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or
third-party internet websites referred to in this book,
and does not guarantee that any content on such
websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
 Contents

List of maps and tables page ix

List of contributors x
Preface xiii
List of abbreviations and acronyms xv

1 Introduction: the importance of the Kargil conflict 1

PETER R. LAVOY

Why this study matters 2

Controversies clarified 5
The Kargil conflict in context 14
Enduring rivalry in South Asia 23
The nuclear revolution reconsidered 29

Part 1 Causes and conduct of the conflict 39

2 The strategic context of the Kargil conflict: a Pakistani
perspective 41
ZAFAR IQBAL CHEEMA

Introduction 41
The historical rationale 42
FCNA and the Northern Areas 49
Contemporary rationale: the Siachen Glacier 52
The Kashmir uprising: the Line of Control and the Neelum Valley 55
Pakistan’s official version 57
Potential objectives of the Kargil conflict 61
Conclusion 62

3 Pakistan’s motivations and calculations for the Kargil

conflict 64
FEROZ HASSAN KHAN, PETER R. LAVOY, AND
CHRISTOPHER CLARY

A history of grievance 68
Restoring honor 74

v
vi Contents

The immediate cause of Kargil 80

A new chain of command 83
Assumptions and miscalculations 86
Conclusion 90

4 Military operations in the Kargil conflict 92

JOHN H. GILL

Prelude to conflict 93
Buildup: local and national 105
Indian counteroffensive 114
Combat operations: an assessment 120
Observations 123

5 American diplomacy and the 1999 Kargil Summit

at Blair House 130
BRUCE RIEDEL

Prologue 130
Introduction 132
Kargil and Kashmir 132
Nawaz calls for help 135
The 4th dawns 137
Aftermath: new deal in New Delhi, coup in Islamabad 141

6 Kargil: the nuclear dimension 144

TIMOTHY D. HOYT

Prelude to Kargil: the May 1998 tests 146

Kargil as a nuclear crisis 155
Post-Kargil interaction: the nuclear dimension 161
Conclusion 167

7 Why Kargil did not produce general war: the crisis-

management strategies of Pakistan, India, and the
United States 171
PETER R. LAVOY

South Asia’s nuclear revolution 172

Pakistan’s calculations 177
India’s conflict-termination strategy 190
International diplomacy 197
Conclusion 204

Part 2 Consequences and impact of the conflict 207

8 Surprise at the top of the world: India’s systemic and
intelligence failure 209
JAMES J. WIRTZ AND SURINDER RANA
 Contents vii

The theory of surprise 211

The fait accompli at Kargil 215
Planning the fait accompli: the view from Pakistan 216
Ripe for surprise: the view from India 219
Problems with India’s intelligence organizations 220
Conclusion 228

9 Militants in the Kargil conflict: myths, realities, and

impacts 231
C. CHRISTINE FAIR

Background: origins of the myth 231

Pakistan’s internal dynamics 236
Impact in the Valley of Kashmir 244
Impact on Pakistan’s foreign relations 248
Conclusion 256

10 The impact of the Kargil conflict and Kashmir on Indian

politics and society 258
PRAVEEN SWAMI

Popular culture 259

The Kargil election 263
The Kargil war and the conflict in Kashmir 270
Conclusion: war, terrorists, and temples 277

11 The Kargil conflict’s impact on Pakistani politics and

society 280
SAEED SHAFQAT

The Pakistani print media’s Kargil 282

The domestic political impact 289
The religious parties outflank the mainstream 290
Political management and mismanagement 296
The coup and its aftermath 304
Conclusion 306

Part 3 Lessons learned 309

12 The lessons of Kargil as learned by India 311
RAJESH M. BASRUR

Organizational lessons 313

Strategic lessons 320
Conclusion: lessons well learned? 328

13 The lessons of Kargil as learned by Pakistan 333

HASAN-ASKARI RIZVI

Military learning in South Asia 334

viii Contents

Misperceiving others: Pakistani perceptions of international response 337

The harsh spotlight 340
Operational lessons 346
Assessment of the conflict 349
Conclusion: has Pakistan learned? 350

14 The Kargil crisis: lessons learned by the United States 353

RODNEY W. JONES AND JOSEPH MCMILLAN

Lessons for US relations with India and Pakistan 354

Lessons for nuclear stability and nonproliferation policy 359
Lessons for future engagement 365
Conclusion 373

15 Kargil, deterrence, and international relations theory 377

ROBERT JERVIS

Introduction 377
Nature of the puzzle 379
Routes to Kargil 381
Surprise 387
Nuclear weapons, nuclear wars 388
Conclusion 396

Index 398
 Maps and tables

Maps
1.1 Jammu and Kashmir page 17
2.1 Indian ingress after 1972 and alleged Pakistani incursion 50
2.2 Unoccupied areas along the LoC 59
4.1 Mushkoh, Dras, and Kaksar sectors 99
4.2 Batalik sector 100
4.3 Chorbat La and Turtok (Hanif) sectors 101

Tables
1.1 The Kargil conflict’s implications for nuclear-deterrence
theory 36
4.1 Indian and Pakistani forces in the Kargil conflict 127
10.1 Results in the 1998 and 1999 General Elections for major
parties 265
10.2 Voting patterns in four key states, General Elections 1998 and
1999 266
10.3 An overview of the “pro-active” policy 273
11.1 Party share of votes: all-Pakistan National Assembly elections 291

ix
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different content
 Criminology - Instructor Guide
Second 2022 - Laboratory

Prepared by: Teaching Assistant Garcia

Date: August 12, 2025

Introduction 1: Comparative analysis and synthesis

Learning Objective 1: Case studies and real-world applications
• Current trends and future directions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Learning Objective 2: Critical analysis and evaluation
• Historical development and evolution
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Learning Objective 3: Historical development and evolution
• Practical applications and examples
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Learning Objective 4: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Key terms and definitions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Learning Objective 5: Historical development and evolution
• Interdisciplinary approaches
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Example 5: Current trends and future directions
• Statistical analysis and interpretation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Important: Study tips and learning strategies
• Assessment criteria and rubrics
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Example 7: Research findings and conclusions
• Statistical analysis and interpretation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
[Figure 8: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Important: Study tips and learning strategies
• Practical applications and examples
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 9: Critical analysis and evaluation
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Introduction 2: Problem-solving strategies and techniques
Note: Learning outcomes and objectives
• Experimental procedures and results
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 11: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Practice Problem 11: Current trends and future directions
• Critical analysis and evaluation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Key Concept: Current trends and future directions
• Current trends and future directions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Remember: Learning outcomes and objectives
• Problem-solving strategies and techniques
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 14: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Important: Current trends and future directions
• Learning outcomes and objectives
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Important: Historical development and evolution
• Literature review and discussion
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Key Concept: Practical applications and examples
• Critical analysis and evaluation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Note: Study tips and learning strategies
• Key terms and definitions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Important: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 19: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Example 19: Practical applications and examples
• Best practices and recommendations
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Quiz 3: Literature review and discussion
Key Concept: Historical development and evolution
• Learning outcomes and objectives
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Remember: Problem-solving strategies and techniques
• Key terms and definitions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Remember: Assessment criteria and rubrics
• Critical analysis and evaluation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Remember: Statistical analysis and interpretation
• Key terms and definitions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Note: Problem-solving strategies and techniques
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Definition: Critical analysis and evaluation
• Literature review and discussion
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Remember: Key terms and definitions
• Critical analysis and evaluation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Key Concept: Theoretical framework and methodology
• Assessment criteria and rubrics
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Note: Key terms and definitions
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Definition: Best practices and recommendations
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Review 4: Critical analysis and evaluation
Important: Critical analysis and evaluation
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 31: Historical development and evolution
• Critical analysis and evaluation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 32: Problem-solving strategies and techniques
• Historical development and evolution
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Remember: Experimental procedures and results
• Best practices and recommendations
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Example 34: Study tips and learning strategies
• Learning outcomes and objectives
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Definition: Case studies and real-world applications
• Historical development and evolution
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Remember: Theoretical framework and methodology
• Experimental procedures and results
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
[Figure 37: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Practice Problem 37: Historical development and evolution
• Interdisciplinary approaches
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Definition: Historical development and evolution
• Practical applications and examples
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Definition: Literature review and discussion
• Theoretical framework and methodology
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Summary 5: Interdisciplinary approaches
Important: Key terms and definitions
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Note: Problem-solving strategies and techniques
• Case studies and real-world applications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Example 42: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Example 43: Fundamental concepts and principles
• Case studies and real-world applications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Remember: Critical analysis and evaluation
• Historical development and evolution
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Important: Historical development and evolution
• Interdisciplinary approaches
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Note: Experimental procedures and results
• Case studies and real-world applications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Remember: Problem-solving strategies and techniques
• Key terms and definitions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 48: Ethical considerations and implications
• Problem-solving strategies and techniques
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Key Concept: Case studies and real-world applications
• Current trends and future directions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 50: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Lesson 6: Learning outcomes and objectives
Example 50: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Statistical analysis and interpretation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 51: Best practices and recommendations
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Key Concept: Best practices and recommendations
• Experimental procedures and results
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
[Figure 53: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Practice Problem 53: Historical development and evolution
• Interdisciplinary approaches
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Example 54: Problem-solving strategies and techniques
• Theoretical framework and methodology
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Key Concept: Literature review and discussion
• Learning outcomes and objectives
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Important: Best practices and recommendations
• Literature review and discussion
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Example 57: Study tips and learning strategies
• Case studies and real-world applications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Note: Critical analysis and evaluation
• Best practices and recommendations
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Definition: Current trends and future directions
• Best practices and recommendations
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Practice 7: Historical development and evolution
Remember: Study tips and learning strategies
• Assessment criteria and rubrics
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Important: Experimental procedures and results
• Fundamental concepts and principles
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Note: Experimental procedures and results
• Historical development and evolution
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Example 63: Fundamental concepts and principles
• Practical applications and examples
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Definition: Research findings and conclusions
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 65: Research findings and conclusions
• Experimental procedures and results
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 66: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Remember: Literature review and discussion
• Fundamental concepts and principles
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Definition: Key terms and definitions
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Key Concept: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Experimental procedures and results
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 69: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Remember: Statistical analysis and interpretation
• Practical applications and examples
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Exercise 8: Critical analysis and evaluation
Note: Statistical analysis and interpretation
• Statistical analysis and interpretation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 71: Learning outcomes and objectives
• Problem-solving strategies and techniques
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Key Concept: Fundamental concepts and principles
• Problem-solving strategies and techniques
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Remember: Assessment criteria and rubrics
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Important: Current trends and future directions
• Problem-solving strategies and techniques
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 75: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Note: Experimental procedures and results
• Critical analysis and evaluation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 76: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Remember: Research findings and conclusions
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Remember: Interdisciplinary approaches
• Current trends and future directions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Definition: Literature review and discussion
• Learning outcomes and objectives
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Note: Research findings and conclusions
• Literature review and discussion
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Chapter 9: Statistical analysis and interpretation
Definition: Problem-solving strategies and techniques
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Key Concept: Statistical analysis and interpretation
• Theoretical framework and methodology
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 82: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
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