Aug. 15, 2025, NRSC John Cornyn memo
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web-producersAug. 15, 2025, NRSC John Cornyn memo
Uploaded by
web-producersMEMORANDUM
TO: Republican Conference
RE: Senator John Cornyn
DATE: August 15, 2025
OVERVIEW
Senator John Cornyn will win Texas — and the campaign to ensure that outcome is already in motion and
delivering results. Backed by a six-week super PAC ad blitz touting his conservative record and support for
President Trump, Cornyn has put Paxton on the defensive, with his position already crumbling as voters take a
closer look at his scandal-ridden record. By late fall, the landscape will be dramatically different as this trend line
continues. From the onset, our internal data has pointed to a clear path to victory — reinforce Cornyn early and
systematically educate Texas Republicans on Paxton’s true ethical and ideological vulnerabilities.
Taking Texas Off the Map
We’ve seen the data: Ken Paxton’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep — built on soft name ID and
low-information. The latest Emerson College poll confirms what our internal data has shown, the race is tightening
and is now in a dead heat, with Cornyn at 30%, Paxton at 29%, and 37% of Republicans still undecided. This is the
first public poll to factor in Paxton’s wife divorcing him on biblical grounds — and it breaks his streak of inflated
leads. As we’ve been saying for months, the underlying data in this race tells a very different story than the string of
polls promoted by Cornyn’s opponents. Those polls ignore a key fact: Paxton’s negatives are not “baked in” from
his impeachment — they deepen as voters learn more – and now is the time to unite behind John Cornyn to ensure
the Republican ecosystem doesn’t have to waste hundreds of millions of dollars in Texas next fall.
Our internal data demonstrates that the tightening of this race has been long in the making:
● Cornyn’s Conservative Strength and Growth Potential: Cornyn posts +34 favorability with Republicans
and +8 with all voters, and gains 6 points after messaging on his conservative record and Trump ties.
● Paxton’s Support Collapses When Exposed: Paxton’s net favorability dropped dramatically from +4.4 to
-14.7 – a 19-point swing – after voters were exposed to documented elements of his record.
○ Voter Concern Is Real: Over 60% of voters found criticisms of Paxton’s record concerning, but most
had never heard them before.
○ Sharp Declines Among Key Groups: Paxton’s favorability among women plummeted 22.6 points,
from +8.0 to -14.6. Overall, 13% of voters shifted from favorable/neutral to unfavorable.
● Cornyn Leads When Voters Are Informed: After hearing about Paxton’s personal and professional
negatives, voters prefer Cornyn by double digits, 48% to 38%.
● Massive Finance Edge: Paxton is running on fumes. Texas has 20 media markets - more than any other
state - making it one of the most expensive places to run statewide. Paxton’s combined $4.35M cash total
doesn’t come close to Cornyn’s combined $19.4M war chest as of Q2.
Conclusion
Senator John Cornyn is a proven conservative with the message, team, and resources to win — backed by the
NRSC, SLF, top Trump advisors, and veteran strategists. He reflects Texas values and delivers results. Nominating
a damaged, scandal-plagued Ken Paxton would hand Democrats an opening to flip Texas and cause Republicans
to divert hundreds of millions of dollars that would otherwise be spent winning key battlegrounds. The directive is
clear: rally behind Cornyn, and we win.
425 SECOND STREET NORTHEAST • WASHINGTON, D.C. 20002 • (202) 675-6000
PAID FOR BY NRSC. NOT AUTHORIZED BY ANY CANDIDATE OR CANDIDATE’S COMMITTEE. WWW.NRSC.ORG
