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LEARNING
CURVES
Theory,
Models, and
Applications

Edited by
Mohamad Y. Jaber
LEARNING
CURVES
Theory,
Models, and
Applications
 Industrial Innovation Series
Series Editor
Adedeji B. Badiru
Department of Systems and Engineering Management
Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) – Dayton, Ohio

PUBLISHED TITLES
Computational Economic Analysis for Engineering and Industry
Adedeji B. Badiru & Olufemi A. Omitaomu
Conveyors: Applications, Selection, and Integration
Patrick M. McGuire
Global Engineering: Design, Decision Making, and Communication
Carlos Acosta, V. Jorge Leon, Charles Conrad, and Cesar O. Malave
Handbook of Industrial Engineering Equations, Formulas, and Calculations
Adedeji B. Badiru & Olufemi A. Omitaomu
Handbook of Industrial and Systems Engineering
Adedeji B. Badiru
Handbook of Military Industrial Engineering
Adedeji B.Badiru & Marlin U. Thomas
Industrial Project Management: Concepts, Tools, and Techniques
Adedeji B. Badiru, Abidemi Badiru, and Adetokunboh Badiru
Inventory Management: Non-Classical Views
Mohamad Y. Jaber
Kansei Engineering - 2 volume set
• Innovations of Kansei Engineering, Mitsuo Nagamachi & Anitawati Mohd
Lokman
• Kansei/Affective Engineering, Mitsuo Nagamachi
Knowledge Discovery from Sensor Data
Auroop R. Ganguly, João Gama, Olufemi A. Omitaomu, Mohamed Medhat Gaber,
and Ranga Raju Vatsavai
Learning Curves: Theory, Models, and Applications
Mohamad Y. Jaber
Moving from Project Management to Project Leadership: A Practical Guide
to Leading Groups
R. Camper Bull
Quality Management in Construction Projects
Abdul Razzak Rumane
Social Responsibility: Failure Mode Effects and Analysis
Holly Alison Duckworth & Rosemond Ann Moore
STEP Project Management: Guide for Science, Technology, and Engineering Projects
Adedeji B. Badiru
Systems Thinking: Coping with 21st Century Problems
John Turner Boardman & Brian J. Sauser
Techonomics: The Theory of Industrial Evolution
H. Lee Martin
Triple C Model of Project Management: Communication, Cooperation, Coordination
Adedeji B. Badiru
FORTHCOMING TITLES
Essentials of Engineering Leadership and Innovation
Pamela McCauley-Bush & Lesia L. Crumpton-Young
Industrial Control Systems: Mathematical and Statistical Models and Techniques
Adedeji B. Badiru, Oye Ibidapo-Obe, & Babatunde J. Ayeni
Modern Construction: Productive and Lean Practices
Lincoln Harding Forbes
Project Management: Systems, Principles, and Applications
Adedeji B. Badiru
Statistical Techniques for Project Control
Adedeji B. Badiru
Technology Transfer and Commercialization of Environmental Remediation Technology
Mark N. Goltz
LEARNING
CURVES
Theory,
Models, and
Applications

Edited by
Mohamad Y. Jaber

Boca Raton London New York

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Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
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 Dedication

To the soul of my father,

and to my wife and sons.
Contents
Preface.................................................................................................................... xiii
Editor ....................................................................................................................... xv
Contributors ...........................................................................................................xvii

Part I Theory and Models

Chapter 1 Learning Curves: The State of the Art and Research Directions ........3
Flavio S. Fogliatto and Michel J. Anzanello

Chapter 2 Inside the Learning Curve: Opening the Black Box of the
Learning Curve .................................................................................. 23
Michael A. Lapré

Chapter 3 Learning and Thinking Systems........................................................ 37

J. Deane Waldman and Steven A. Yourstone

Chapter 4 From Men and Machines to the Organizational Learning Curve...... 57

Guido Fioretti

Chapter 5 Management at the Flat End of the Learning Curve: An

Overview of Interaction Value Analysis ............................................ 71
Walid F. Nasrallah

Chapter 6 Log-Linear and Non-Log-Linear Learning Curve Models for

Production Research and Cost Estimation ......................................... 91
Timothy L. Smunt

Chapter 7 Using Parameter Prediction Models to Forecast Post-

Interruption Learning....................................................................... 103
Charles D. Bailey and Edward V. McIntyre

Chapter 8 Introduction to Half-Life Theory of Learning Curves..................... 129

Adedeji B. Badiru

xi
xii Contents

Chapter 9 Influence of Breaks in Learning on Forgetting Curves ................... 163

Sverker Sikström, Mohamad Y. Jaber, and W. Patrick Neumann

Chapter 10 Learning and Forgetting: Implications for Workforce Flexibility

in AMT Environments ..................................................................... 173
Corinne M. Karuppan

Chapter 11 Accelerated Learning by Experimentation ...................................... 191

Roger Bohn and Michael A. Lapré

Chapter 12 Linking Quality to Learning – A Review........................................ 211

Mehmood Khan, Mohamad Y. Jaber, and Margaret Plaza

Chapter 13 Latent Growth Models for Operations Management Research:

A Methodological Primer................................................................. 237
Hemant V. Kher and Jean-Philippe Laurenceau

Part II Applications

Chapter 14 The Lot Sizing Problem and the Learning Curve: A Review.......... 265
Mohamad Y. Jaber and Maurice Bonney

Chapter 15 Learning Effects in Inventory Models with Alternative

Shipment Strategies.......................................................................... 293
Christoph H. Glock

Chapter 16 Steady-State Characteristics under Processing-Time Learning

and Forgetting ..................................................................................309
Sunantha Teyarachakul

Chapter 17 Job Scheduling in Customized Assembly Lines Affected by

Workers’ Learning ........................................................................... 333
Michel J. Anzanello and Flavio S. Fogliatto

Chapter 18 Industrial Work Measurement and Improvement through

Multivariate Learning Curves.......................................................... 349
Adedeji B. Badiru
Contents xiii

Chapter 19 Do Professional Services Learn, Sustain, and Transfer

Knowledge? ...................................................................................... 367
Tonya Boone, Ram Ganeshan, and Robert L. Hicks

Chapter 20 Learning Curves in Project Management: The Case of a

“Troubled” Implementation.............................................................. 381
Margaret Plaza, Daphne Diem Truong, and Roger Chow

Chapter 21 Timing Software Upgrades to Maximize Productivity: A

Decision Analysis Model Based on the Learning Curve................. 397
Aziz Guergachi and Ojelanki Ngwenyama

Chapter 22 Learning Curves for CAD Competence Building of Novice

Trainees ............................................................................................ 411
Ramsey F. Hamade

Chapter 23 Developments in Interpreting Learning Curves and

Applications to Energy Technology Policy ...................................... 425
Bob van der Zwaan and Clas-Otto Wene
Preface
Early investigations of the learning phenomenon focused on the behavior of indi-
vidual subjects who were learning-by-doing. These investigations revealed that the
time required to perform a task declined, but at a decreasing rate as experience with
the task increased. Such behavior was experimentally recorded and its data then
fitted to an equation that adequately describes the relationships between the learn-
ing variables – namely that the performance (output) improves as experience (input)
increases. Such an equation is known as a “learning curve” equation.
The learning curve has more general applicability and can describe the perfor-
mance of an individual in a group, a group in an organization, and of an organization
itself. Learning in an organization takes a more complex form than learning-by-
doing. Learning in an organization occurs at different levels, involving functions
such as strategic planning, personnel management, product planning and design,
processes improvement, and technological progress. Many experts today believe that
for an organization (manufacturing or a service) to sustain its competitive advantage,
it has to have a steeper learning curve than its competitors. If the organization fails
to have this, then it will forget and decay. As predicted by Stevens (Management
Accounting 77, 64–65, 1999), learning curves continue to be used widely today due
to the demand for sophisticated high-technology systems and the increasing inter-
est in refurbishment to extend asset life. Therefore, understanding and quantifying
the learning process can provide vital means to observe, track, and continuously
improve processes in organizations within various sectors.
Since the seminal review paper of Yelle (Decision Sciences 10(2), 302–328, 1979),
two books have been published on learning curves. These books treated the learning
curve, as a forecasting tool with applications to accounting (A. Riahi-Belkaoui, 1986,
The learning curve: A management accounting tool, Quorum Books: Westport,
CT.), and as an industrial engineering tool (E. Dar-El, 2000, Human learning: From
learning curves to learning organizations, Kluwer: Dordrecht, the Netherlands),
respectively. For the past decade or so, some research has focused on opening the
black box of learning curves in order to understand how learning occurs within
organizations in many sectors. Some of these research studies have been the result
of the careful examination of organizational systems in the manufacturing and ser-
vice sectors. Recent studies show that applications of learning curves extend beyond
engineering to include healthcare, information technology, technology assessment,
postal services, military, and more.
This book is a collection of chapters written by international contributors who
have for years been researching learning curves and their applications. The book will
help draw a learning map that shows the reader where learning is involved within
organizations and how it can be sustained, perfected, and accelerated. The book is
a suitable reference for graduate students and researchers in the areas of operations
research/management science, industrial engineering, management (e.g., healthcare,
energy), and social sciences. It is divided into two parts. The first part, consisting of

xv
xvi Preface

Chapters 1–13, describes the theory and models of learning curves. The second part,
consisting of Chapters 14–23, describes applications of learning curves.
During the preparation of this book, one of the contributors (Professor) Leo
Schrattenholzer, sadly and unexpectedly passed away. Leo had initially asked Clas-
Otto Wene and Bob van der Zwaan to be the co-authors of his book chapter and,
thankfully and honorably, Bob and Clas-Otto carried on with the task of contributing
Chapter 23 in memory of Leo.
I would like to thank all those who have encouraged me to edit this book; in par-
ticular Professor A. Badiru and Professor M. Bonney. Finally, I would also like to
thank my wife for her continued support, which made completing this book possible.

Mohamad Y. Jaber
Ryerson University
Toronto, ON, Canada
Editor
Mohamad Y. Jaber is a professor of Industrial Engineering at Ryerson University.
He obtained his PhD in manufacturing and operations management from The
University of Nottingham. His research expertise includes modeling human learn-
ing and forgetting curves, workforce flexibility and productivity, inventory manage-
ment, supply chain management, reverse logistics, and the thermodynamic analysis
of production and inventory systems. Dr. Jaber has published extensively in interna-
tionally renowned journals, such as: Applied Mathematical Modeling, Computers
& Industrial Engineering, Computers & Operations Research, European Journal
of Operational Research, Journal of Operational Research Society, International
Journal of Production Economics, and International Journal of Production Research.
His research has been well cited by national and international scholars. Dr. Jaber’s
industrial experience is in construction management. He is the area editor—logistics
and inventory systems—for Computers & Industrial Engineering, and a senior edi-
tor for Ain Shams Engineering Journal. He is also on the editorial boards for the
Journal of Operations and Logistics, Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences
and the Research Journal of Applied Sciences. Dr. Jaber is the editor of the book,
Inventory Management: Non-Classical Views, published by CRC Press. He is a
member of the European Institute for Advanced Studies in Management, European
Operations Management Association, Decision Sciences Institute, International
Institute of Innovation, Industrial Engineering and Entrepreneurship, International
Society for Inventory Research, Production & Operations Management Society, and
Professional Engineers Ontario.

xvii
Contributors
Michel J. Anzanello Flavio S. Fogliatto
Department of Industrial Engineering Department of Industrial Engineering
Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul
Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Adedeji B. Badiru Ram Ganeshan

Department of Systems and Mason School of Business
Engineering Management College of William and Mary
Air Force Institute of Technology Williamsburg, Virginia
Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio
Christoph H. Glock
Charles D. Bailey Faculty of Economics
School of Accountancy University of Wuerzburg
University of Memphis Wuerzburg, Germany
Memphis, Tennessee
Aziz Guergachi
Ted Rogers School of Management
Roger Bohn
Ryerson University
School of International Relations and
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Pacific Studies
University of California Ramsey F. Hamade
San Diego, California Department of Mechanical Engineering
American University of Beirut
Maurice Bonney Beirut, Lebanon
Nottingham University Business School
University of Nottingham Robert L. Hicks
Nottingham, United Kingdom Department of Economics and Thomas
Jefferson School in Public Policy
Tonya Boone College of William and Mary
Mason School of Business Williamsburg, Virginia
College of William and Mary
Williamsburg, Virginia Mohamad Y. Jaber
Department of Mechanical and
Roger Chow Industrial Engineering
Dymaxium Inc. Ryerson University
Toronto, Ontario, Canada Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Guido Fioretti Corinne M. Karuppan

Department of Management Science Department of Management
University of Bologna Missouri State University
Bologna, Italy Springfield, Missouri

xix
xx Contributors

Mehmood Khan Margaret Plaza

Department of Mechanical and Ted Rogers School of Management
Industrial Engineering Ryerson University
Ryerson University Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Sverker Sikström
Hemant V. Kher Department of Psychology
Alfred Lerner College of Business and Lund University
Economics Lund, Sweden
University of Delaware
Newark, Delaware Timothy L. Smunt
Sheldon B. Lubar School of Business
Michael A. Lapré University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee
Owen Graduate School of Management Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Vanderbilt University
Nashville, Tennessee Sunantha Teyarachakul
ESSEC Business School
Jean-Philippe Laurenceau Paris, France
Department of Psychology
University of Delaware Daphne Diem Truong
Newark, Delaware Royal Bank of Canada
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Edward V. McIntyre
Department of Accounting J. Deane Waldman
Florida State University Health Sciences Center
Tallahassee, Florida University of New Mexico
Albuquerque, New Mexico
Walid F. Nasrallah
Faculty of Engineering and Architecture Clas-Otto Wene
American University of Beirut Wenergy AB
Beirut, Lebanon Lund, Sweden

W. Patrick Neumann Steven A. Yourstone

Department of Mechanical and Anderson School of Management
Industrial Engineering University of New Mexico
Ryerson University Albuquerque, New Mexico
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Bob van der Zwaan
Ojelanki Ngwenyama Policy Studies Department
Ted Rogers School of Management Energy research Center of the
Ryerson University Netherlands
Toronto, Ontario, Canada Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Part I
Theory and Models
 1 Learning Curves: The
State of the Art and
Research Directions
Flavio S. Fogliatto and Michel J. Anzanello

CONTENTS
Introduction................................................................................................................3
A Review of Learning and Forgetting Models............................................................4
Log-Linear Model and Modifications ...................................................................5
Hyperbolic Models................................................................................................9
Exponential Models ............................................................................................ 10
Multivariate Models ............................................................................................ 12
Forgetting Models ............................................................................................... 12
Research Agenda...................................................................................................... 13
References................................................................................................................ 15

INTRODUCTION
Several authors have investigated in various industrial segments the way in which
workers improve their performance as repetitions of a manual-based task take
place; e.g., Anderson (1982), Adler and Clark (1991), Pananiswaml and Bishop
(1991), Nembhard and Uzumeri (2000a), Nembhard and Osothsilp (2002), Vits
and Gelders (2002), Hamade et al. (2007). A number of factors may impact the
workers’ learning process, including: (1) task complexity, as investigated by
Pananiswaml and Bishop (1991) and Nembhard and Osothsilp (2002); (2) struc-
ture of training programs (Terwiesch and Bohn 2001; Vits and Gelders 2002;
Serel et al. 2003; Azizi et al. 2010); (3) workers’ motivation in performing the
tasks (Kanfer 1990; Eyring et al. 1993; Natter et al. 2001; Agrell et al. 2002);
and (4) prior experience with the task (Nembhard and Uzumeri 2000a, 2000b;
Nembhard and Osothsilp 2002). Other studies have focused on measuring knowl-
edge and dexterity retention after task interruption; e.g., Dar-El and Rubinovitz
(1991), Wickens et al. (1998), Nembhard and Uzumeri (2000b), and Jaber and
Guiffrida (2008). Analyses presented in the works listed above were carried out
by means of mathematical models suitable to describe the workers’ learning
process.
Learning curves (LCs) are deemed to be efficient tools in monitoring workers’
performance in repetitive tasks, leading to reduced process loss due to workers’

3
4 Learning Curves: Theory, Models, and Applications

inability in the first production cycles, as reported by Argote (1999), Dar-El (2000),
Salameh and Jaber (2000), and Jaber et al. (2008). LCs have been used to allocate
tasks to workers according to their learning profiles (Teplitz 1991; Uzumeri and
Nembhard 1998; Nembhard and Uzumeri 2000a; Anzanello and Fogliatto 2007), to
analyze and control productive operations (Chen et al. 2008; Jaber and El Saadany
2009; Janiak and Rudek 2008; Wahab and Jaber 2010), to measure production costs
as workers gain experience in a task (Wright 1936; Teplitz 1991; Sturm 1999), and to
estimate costs of consulting and technology implementation (Plaza and Rohlf 2008;
Plaza et al. 2010).
In view of its wide applicability in production systems and given the increasing
number of publications on the subject, we discuss, in this chapter, the state of the art
in relation to LCs, covering the most relevant models and applications. Mathematical
aspects of univariate and multivariate LCs are discussed, describing their applica-
tions, modifications to suit specific purposes, and limitations.
The chapter is divided into three sections including the present introduction. “A
Review of Learning and Forgetting Models” section presents the main families of LC
models and their mathematical aspects. “Research Agenda” section closes the chapter
by presenting three promising research directions on LCs.

A REVIEW OF LEARNING AND FORGETTING MODELS

An LC is a mathematical description of workers’ performance in repetitive tasks
(Wright 1936; Teplitz 1991; Badiru 1992; Argote 1999; Fioretti 2007). Workers are
likely to demand less time to perform tasks as repetitions take place due to increas-
ing familiarity with the operation and tools, and because shortcuts to task execution
are found (Wright 1936; Teplitz 1991; Dar-El 2000).
LCs were empirically developed by Wright (1936) after observing a decrease
in the assembly costs of airplanes as repetitions were performed. Based on such
empirical evidence, Wright proposed a rule, widely applied in the aeronauti-
cal industry of the time, according to which cumulative assembly costs were
reduced on average by 20% as the number of units manufactured was dupli-
cated (Teplitz 1991; Cook 1991; Badiru 1992; Argote 1999; Askin and Goldberg
2001).
Measures of workers’ performance that have been used as dependent variables
in LC models include: time to produce a single unit, number of units produced per
time interval, costs to produce a single unit, and percentage of non-conforming
units (Teplitz 1991; Franceschini and Galetto 2002). LC parameters may be esti-
mated through a non-linear optimization routine aimed at minimizing the sum of
squares error. The model’s goodness of fit may be measured through the coefficient
of determination (R2), the sum of squares error, or the model adherence to a valida-
tion sample.
The wide range of applications conceived for LCs yielded univariate and multivari-
ate models of varying complexity, which enabled a mathematical representation of
the learning process in different settings. The log-linear, exponential, and hyperbolic
models are the best known univariate models. These are described in the sections
to follow.
Learning Curves: The State of the Art and Research Directions 5

Log-Linear Model and Modifications

Wright’s model, also referred to as the “log-linear model,” is generally viewed as
the first formal LC model. Its mathematical representation is given in Equation 1.1.

y = C1 x b , (1.1)

where y is the average time or cost per unit demanded to produce x units, and C1 is
the time or cost to produce the first unit. Parameter b, ranging from −1 to 0, describes
the workers’ learning rate and corresponds to the slope of the curve. Values of b
close to −1 denote high learning rate and fast adaptation to task execution (Teplitz
1991; Badiru 1992; Argote 1999; Dar-El 2000).
The following modification on Wright’s model enables the estimation of the total
time or cost to produce x units:

y1→ x = C1 x b +1. (1.2)

The time or cost required to produce a specific unit i may be determined by fur-
ther modifying the model in Equation 1.1 as follows:

b +1
yi = C1 ⎡⎢i b +1 − ( i − 1) ⎤⎥ . (1.3)
⎣ ⎦

Numerical results from Equations 1.1 through 1.3 are summarized in tables for
different learning rates (Wright 1936; Teplitz 1991), enabling prompt estimation of
the time required to complete a task.
The log-linear model has several reported applications in the literature. For
example, estimation of the time to task completion (Teplitz 1991), estimation of a
product’s life cycle (Kortge et al. 1994), evaluation of the effect of interruptions on
the production rate (Jaber and Bonney 1996; Argote 1999), and assessment of the
production rate as product specifications are changed through the process (Towill
1985). These applications are detailed in the paragraphs to follow.
Some industrial segments are well known for applying log-linear LCs and modi-
fications to model the workers’ learning process. Examples include the semiconduc-
tor industry (Cook 1991; Gruber 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998), electronic and aerospace
components manufacturers (Garvin 2000), the chemical industry (Lieberman 1984),
automotive parts manufacturers (Baloff 1971; Dar-El 2000), and truck assemblers
(Argote 1999). Use of the log-linear LC for cost monitoring is reported by Spence
(1981), Teng and Thompson (1996), Teplitz (1991), and Rea and Kerzner (1997).
The log-linear curve is the most used LC model for predicting the production
rate in repetitive operations (Blancett 2002, Globerson and Gold 1997). Globerson
and Levin (1987) and Vits and Gelders (2002) state that although presenting a non-
complex mathematical structure, the log-linear model describes most manual-based
operations with acceptable precision. Blancett (2002) applied the model in several
sectors of a building company, evaluating workers’ performance from product
6 Learning Curves: Theory, Models, and Applications

development to final manufacturing. With similar purposes, Terwiesch and Bohn

(2001) analyzed the learning effect throughout the production process of a new
product model. Finally, productivity in different cellular layouts was compared in
Kannan and Polacsay (1999), using modifications of the log-linear LC.
Production planning activities may also benefit from applications of the log-linear
LC, as reported by Kopcso and Nemitz (1983), Muth and Spremann (1983), Salameh
et al. (1993), Jaber, Rachamadugu and Tan (1997), Jaber and Bonney (1999, 2001,
2003), and Pratsini (2000). These authors investigated the impact of workers’ learn-
ing on inventory policies, optimal lot size determination, and other production plan-
ning activities.
The integration of log-linear LCs to tools designed to assist production control
has also been reported in the literature. Yelle (1980, 1983), Kortge (1993), and Kortge
et al. (1994) combined LCs and product life cycle models aiming at improving pro-
duction planning (for a review of product life cycle models see Cox [1967] and Rink
and Swan [1979], among others). Pramongkit et al. (2000) proposed the combina-
tion of LC and the Cobb-Douglas function to assess how specific factors such as
invested capital and expert workforce affected workers’ learning in Thai companies.
Similarly, Pramongkit et al. (2002) used a log-linear LC associated with the total
factor productivity tool to assess workers’ learning in large Thai companies. Finally,
Karaoz and Albeni (2005) integrated LCs and indices describing technological
aspects to evaluate workers’ performance in long production runs.
The combination of log-linear-based LCs and quality control techniques was sug-
gested by Koulamas (1992) to evaluate the impacts of product redesign on process
quality and cost. Tapiero (1987) established an association between learning process
and quality control in production plants. Teng and Thompson (1996) assessed the
way workers’ learning rate influences the quality and costs of new products in auto-
motive companies. Further, Franceschini and Galetto (2002) used LCs to estimate
the reduction of non-conformities in a juice production plant as workers increased
their skills. Jaber and Guiffrida (2004) proposed modifications on Wright’s LC for
processes generating defects that required reworking; the resulting model was named
the “quality learning curve” (QLC). Jaber and Guiffrida (2008) investigated the QLC
under the assumption that production is interrupted for quality maintenance aimed at
bringing it back to an in-control state. Finally, Yang et al. (2009) proposed a quality
control approach integrating on-line statistical process control (SPC) and LCs.
Applications of log-linear LCs have also been reported in the service sector.
Chambers and Johnston (2000) applied LC modeling in two service providers: a
large air company and a small bank. Saraswat and Gorgone (1990) evaluated the per-
formance of software installers in companies and private residences. Sturm (1999)
verified a 15% cost reduction in the process of filling out clinical forms as the num-
ber of forms doubled, roughly adhering to Wright’s rule.
Log-linear LCs have been thoroughly investigated regarding their limitations and
modifications for specific purposes (Baloff 1966; Zangwill and Kantor 1998, 2000;
Waterworth 2000). Modifications generally aim at eliminating inconsistencies in the
mathematical structure of the log-linear model.
Hurley (1996) and Eden et al. (1998) state that Wright’s model yields execution
times asymptotically converging to zero as a function of the number of repetitions,
Learning Curves: The State of the Art and Research Directions 7

which is not verified in practice. To overcome this, the authors propose the inclu-
sion of a constant term in Wright’s model. Another drawback of Wright’s model is
pointed out by Globerson et al. (1989). They claim that the model does not take into
account workers’ prior experience, which clearly impacts on production planning
and workforce allocation.
Another limitation of Wright’s LC is related to inconsistencies in definition and
inferences regarding LC outputs. Towill (1985, 1990) and Waterworth (2000) claim
that many applications consider the mean execution time until unit x and the specific
execution time of unit i as analogous. To correct this, Smunt (1999) proposed an
alternative definition of repetition based on the continuous learning theory.
A factor that may undermine the fit of LC models is the variability in perfor-
mance data collected from a given process (Yelle 1979). Globerson (1984) and Vigil
and Sarper (1994) state that imprecise estimation of the learning parameter b jeop-
ardizes the LC’s predictive ability. They suggest using confidence intervals on the
response estimates for predicting a process production rate. Globerson and Gold
(1997) developed equations for estimating the LC’s variance, coefficient of variation,
and probability density function. Finally, Smunt (1999) proposed modifications on
Wright’s model in order to embrace situations where parameter b changes as the pro-
cess takes place, while Smunt and Watts (2003) proposed the use of data aggregation
techniques to reduce variance of LC-predicted values.
The use of cumulative units as independent variables has also been investigated
in the LC literature. Fine (1986) argues that the number of produced units may hide
learning deficiencies, since they do not take into account the units’ quality. To over-
come this, the author modified the LC to consider only data from conforming units.
Li and Rajagopalan (1997) extended Fine’s (1986) idea to include both conforming
and non-conforming data in the LC model. Finally, Jaber and Guiffrida (2004) pro-
posed modifications in Wright’s model that were aimed at monitoring processes with
a high percentage of non-conforming and reworked units.
Modifications in Wright’s model were initially proposed to adapt the equation to
specific applications, and then to become recognized as alternative models. An exam-
ple is the Stanford-B model, presented in Equation 1.4, which incorporates workers’
prior experience.
y = C1 ( x + B)b . (1.4)

Parameter B, corresponding to the number of units of prior experience, shifts

the LC downward with respect to the time/unit axis (Teplitz 1991; Badiru 1992;
Nembhard and Uzumeri 2000a). The model was tested in the assembly stages of
the Boeing 707, as well as in improvement activities performed later in the product
(Yelle 1979; Badiru 1992; Nembhard and Uzumeri 2000a).
DeJong’s model, presented in Equation 1.5, incorporates the influence of machin-
ery in the learning process.
y = C1[ M + (1 − M ) x b ], (1.5)

where M (0 ≤ M ≤ 1) is the incompressibility factor that informs the fraction of the

task executed by machines (Yelle 1979; Badiru 1992); M = 0 denotes a situation
8 Learning Curves: Theory, Models, and Applications

where there is no machinery involved in the task, while M = 1 denotes a task fully
executed by machinery where no learning takes place (Badiru 1992).
The S-curve model aims at describing learning when machinery intervention
occurs, and when the first cycles of operation demand in-depth analysis. The model
is a combination of DeJong’s and Stanford-B’s models, as presented in Equation 1.6.
Parameters in the model maintain their original definitions (Badiru 1992; Nembhard
and Uzumeri 2000a).

y = C1[ M + (1 − M )( x + B)b ]. (1.6)

The plateau model in Equation 1.7 displays an additive constant, C, which

describes the steady state of workers’ performance. The steady state is reached after
learning is concluded or when machinery limitations block workers’ improvement
(Yelle 1979; Teplitz 1991; Li and Rajagopalan 1998).

y = C + C1 x b . (1.7)

A comprehensive comparison of several of the LCs discussed above is reported

in Hackett (1983).
In addition to the LC models presented above, other less cited log-linear-based
LCs are proposed in the literature. Levy’s (1965) adapted function is one such model:

−1
⎡ 1 ⎛ 1 xb ⎞ ⎤
My = ⎢ − ⎜ − ⎟ k − kx ⎥ , (1.8)
⎢⎣ β ⎝ β C1 ⎠ ⎥⎦

where β is a task-defined production coefficient for the first unit, and k is the workers’
performance in steady state. Remaining parameters are as previously defined.
Focused on production runs of long duration, Knecht (1974) proposed an alterna-
tive adapted function model that allows evaluating the production rate as parameter
b changes during the production run (see Equation 1.9). Parameters are as previously
defined.

C1 x b +1
y= . (1.9)
(1 + b)

A summation of LCs characterized by n different learning parameters b, proposed

by Yelle (1976), is given in Equation 1.10. The resulting model could be applied to
production processes comprised of n different tasks. However, Howell (1980) claims
that the model in Equation 1.10 leads to imprecise production rate estimates.

y = C1 x1b1 + C2 x2b 2 +  + Cn xnbn . (1.10)

Learning Curves: The State of the Art and Research Directions 9

Alternative LC models were developed following the log-linear model’s prin-

ciples, although relying on more elaborate mathematical structures to describe
complex production settings. We refrain from exposing the mathematical details
of those models in order to avoid overloading the exposition; only their purpose is
presented. Klenow (1998) proposed an LC model to support decisions on updat-
ing production technology. Demeester and Qi (2005) developed an LC customized
to situations in which two generations of the same product (i.e., two models) are
simultaneously being produced. Their LC helps identify the best moment to allo-
cate learning resources (e.g., training programs and incentive policies) to produce
the new model.
Mazzola et al. (1998) developed an LC-based algorithm to synchronize multi-
product manufacturing in environments characterized by workers’ learning and for-
getting processes. Gavious and Rabinowitz (2003) proposed an approach using an
LC to evaluate the training efficiency of internal resources in comparison with that
of outsourced resources. Similarly, Fioretti (2007) suggested a disaggregated LC
model to analyze complex production environments in terms of time reduction for
task completion. Finally, Park et al. (2003) proposed a multiresponse LC aimed at
evaluating knowledge transference at distinct production stages in a liquid display
(LCD) factory.
The integration of an LC and scheduling techniques was introduced by Biskup
(1999), analyzing the effect of learning on the position of jobs in a single machine.
Mosheiov and Sidney (2003) extended that approach by combining job-dependent
LCs (which are LCs with a different parameter for each job) to programming formu-
lations aimed at minimizing flow time and makespan in a single machine, as well as
flow time in unrelated parallel machines.

Hyperbolic Models
An LC model relating the number of conforming units to the total number of units
produced is reported in Mazur and Hastie (1978). In that model, x describes the num-
ber of conforming units, and r is the number of non-conforming units; thus, y cor-
responds to the fraction of conforming units multiplied by a constant k. The model is
called “2-parameter hyperbolic curve” and is represented by:

⎛ x ⎞
y = k⎜ ⎟. (1.11)
⎝ x+r ⎠

For learning modeling purposes, y describes the workers’ performance in terms

of number of items produced after x units of operation time (y ≥ 0 and x ≥ 0), k quan-
tifies the maximum performance level (k ≥ 0), and r denotes the learning rate, given
in time units (Nembhard and Uzumeri 2000a).
A more complete model can be generated by including workers’ prior experi-
ence in executing the task. For that matter, Mazur and Hastie (1978) suggested the
inclusion of parameter p in Equation 1.11, leading to the 3-parameter hyperbolic LC
10 Learning Curves: Theory, Models, and Applications

in Equation 1.12. In that equation, parameter p refers to workers’ prior experience

evaluated in time units (p ≥ 0).

⎛ x+ p ⎞
y = k⎜ ⎟. (1.12)
⎝ x+ p+r ⎠

Uzumeri and Nembhard (1998) and Nembhard and Uzumeri (2000a) improved
the definition of parameter r, associating it with the time required to achieve produc-
tion level k/2, which is half the maximum performance level k. A worker present-
ing high values of r requires much practice in order to achieve k, thus displaying
slow learning. The authors also state that r acts as the shape factor in the hyperbolic
model, leading to three possible learning profiles: (1) r > 0—the curve presents an
increasing profile until k, representing the typical behavior of workers performing
new tasks; (2) r → 0—the curve follows a horizontal pattern, denoting absence of
workers’ improvement; and (3) r < 0—the curve follows a decreasing performance
pattern, usually associated with fatigue or forgetting.
The 3-parameter hyperbolic model presented remarkable performance when com-
pared to ten other LC models in terms of efficiency, stability, parsimony, and the
ability to model scenarios with forgetting (Nembhard and Uzumeri 2000a). Further,
Anzanello and Fogliatto (2007) found the hyperbolic model to be more robust in
comparison with the 3-parameter exponential and time constant models.
A major application of the 3-parameter hyperbolic LC is related to the allocation
of tasks to workers aimed at improving production systems. Uzumeri and Nembhard
(1998) and Shafer et al. (2001) applied the model in a population of workers assigned
to new tasks. The authors concluded that fast learners (workers presenting low val-
ues of r) tend to achieve lower maximum performance k if compared with slow
learners (workers presenting high values of r). Therefore, they propose allocating
fast learners to short duration tasks, while slow learners should perform tasks of
long duration, given their final performance. With similar objectives, Nembhard and
Osothsilp (2002) evaluated the effects of task complexity on the allocation of tasks
to workers, while Nembhard and Uzumeri (2000b) evaluated distinct workers’ pro-
files in terms of ability gaining and retention under different tasks. Anzanello and
Fogliatto (2007) used the 3-parameter hyperbolic model to allocate tasks to workers
according to the duration of production runs in a shoe manufacturing process.
Other applications of the 3-parameter hyperbolic model include Anzanello and
Fogliatto (2010), where workers’ processing times are estimated using the model and
integrated in several heuristics for task scheduling, and Anzanello (2010), where a
variable selection method using hyperbolic LC parameters as variables for clustering
in mass customized scenarios affected by workers’ learning is proposed.

Exponential Models
One of the first applications of hte exponential LC is reported in Knecht (1974), who
integrated exponential and log-linear functions to improve predictions in long dura-
tion production runs. The proposed model is given in Equation 1.13.
Learning Curves: The State of the Art and Research Directions 11

y = C1 x becx , (1.13)

where c is a second constant; other parameters are as previously defined.

Although several exponential LC models were proposed in the literature, three
are frequently discussed: the 3-parameter exponential, the 2-parameter exponential,
and the constant time models. The first is given in Equation 1.14, with parameters
defined as those in the 3-parameter hyperbolic model.

y = k (1 − e − ( x + p ) /r ). (1.14)

The LC in Equation 1.14 was tested in Mazur and Hastie (1978); the model pro-
vided a poor fit to processes characterized by workers allocated to complex and
demanding new tasks. By contrast, the model fitted well in scenarios character-
ized by high levels of workers’ prior experience. The elimination of parameter p
in Equation 1.14 gives rise to the 2-parameter exponential LC model. As expected,
such a simplified model offers poorer fit to performance data if compared with the
3-parameter exponential LC (Mazur and Hastie 1978).
A comparison between exponential models and the 3-parameter hyperbolic
was performed by Mazur and Hastie (1978). They found that parameters p and
r assume similar values, while parameter k is generally underestimated by the
exponential model. In addition, the 3-parameter hyperbolic model presented
better fit to data collected from several processes, based on the coefficient of
determination (R2).
An alternative exponential model is the time constant model proposed by Towill
(1990). It is structurally similar to the 3-parameter exponential LC, as shown below:

y = yc + y f (1 − e − t /τ ), (1.15)

where yc corresponds to workers’ initial performance (in number of items produced

per time), and yf is the maximum performance when workers’ learning has been
completed, given in the same units. Variable t is the cumulative operation time
(analogous to x in the previous models), which enables easier estimation of the time
required to achieve a certain performance level. Towill (1990) applied the time con-
stant model in a process where performance data collection had started after a short
adaptation of workers to the task.
Modifications on the time constant model were proposed by Naim and Towill
(1990); these authors added trigonometric functions to the model with the aim of
better describing scenarios where cyclical variations in performance are verified.
Further, Howell (1990) evaluated the impact of inaccurate parameter inputs in the
model’s predictive ability and proposed approaches to achieve convergence in com-
plex modeling situations. Finally, Dardan et al. (2006) applied the time constant
model in a hardware company aimed at evaluating the relationship between workers’
learning process and the duration of technological investments.
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