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Igor Nesteruk

COVID-19
Pandemic
Dynamics
Mathematical Simulations
COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics
Igor Nesteruk

COVID-19 Pandemic
Dynamics
Mathematical Simulations

123
Igor Nesteruk
Institute of Hydromechanics
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Kyiv, Ukraine
Electronic Engineering Department
Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute
Kyiv, Ukraine

ISBN 978-981-33-6415-8 ISBN 978-981-33-6416-5 (eBook)

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© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature
Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021
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Singapore
To my parents, Kateryna and Georgii, who
are bravely fighting the pandemic in isolation
Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic poses a great threat due to millions of infected people,
high mortality, and a very negative impact on the economy. Its detailed investi-
gations are still ahead, but the public is already interested in the duration of the
pandemic, the expected number of patients, estimations of quarantine measures,
the scale of recurrences, etc. The threats of the COVID-19 pandemic require the
mobilization of scientists, including mathematicians familiar with methods of
infectious disease simulation.
The more complex the mathematical model, the more unknown parameters it
contains, the values of which must be determined using a limited number of
observations of the disease over time. Even long-term monitoring of the epidemic
may not provide reliable estimates of its parameters due to the constant change in
quarantine and testing conditions, in algorithms of isolation of infected persons, in
pathogen activity, etc.
Any mathematical modeling of the epidemic dynamics will be of particular value
if we make an accurate long-term forecast of its duration and number of diseases
using statistics data sets obtained immediately after the outbreak. That is why many
authors were trying to predict the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in many countries
and regions. We will not dwell on a detailed analysis of these studies and only note
that the correct mathematical simulation of the COVID-19 pandemic is very dif-
ficult for at least two reasons.
First, data on the number of cases are clearly incomplete immediately after onset,
there are quite long hidden periods. The reason is the large number of asymptomatic
patients and the lack of skills to detect a new disease. It must be noted that a large
discrepancy between the registered and actual number of cases occurred even for
the later periods of the COVID-19 pandemic. Adequate modeling is further com-
plicated by the fact that we do not know when the number of reported cases is
approaching the actual number. The second reason for the limited accuracy of
long-term forecasts is the constant changes in the conditions of the pandemic
(changing quarantine measures, social behavior, virulence of the pathogen, etc.).
Therefore, a prediction made using statistics for a certain time period is not suitable
for other periods of time.

vii
viii Introduction

In this book, we will focus on the simplest models that describe the development
of infectious diseases over time. In particular, the initial stages of epidemics in
different regions, which are characterized by an exponential increase in the number
of cases, will be studied. Simple comparisons of the pandemic dynamics in different
countries and its trends will be presented. In these parts of the book, I shall use
some results of articles and preprints, written together with Gerhard Demelmair,
Ihor Kudybyn, Anatolii Nikitin, and Bohdan Shepetyuk, to whom I am also very
grateful for collecting and systematizing statistical information on the number of
registered cases of the disease.
In this book, we will also use the classical SIR model, with three differential
equations for the evolution of the number of susceptible persons—S; infected,
spreading the infection—I and removed persons—R, which is the sum of isolated,
immunized, and deceased persons. This model contains only four parameters, the
values of which can be estimated using a statistical approach developed and suc-
cessfully applied for investigations of the mysterious children's disease that
occurred in the Ukrainian city of Chernivtsi in 1988.
The SIR model is unable to determine the duration of the incubation period and to
predict separately the number of deaths caused by coronavirus, but allows us to make
adequate predictions of the duration of epidemics in different countries, estimates
of their actual beginning (they may precede the time of registration of the first patient),
to calculate the time dependences of the total number of patients V = I + R and I, to
estimate the probability of meeting an infected person and the effective reproduction
numbers. Corresponding results for the first COVID-19 epidemic waves in mainland
China, USA, Germany, the UK, the Republic of Korea, Austria, Italy, Spain, France,
the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine, the city of Kyiv and for the whole world are
already published in my articles and preprints. In the book, these results are sys-
tematized and conclusions are drawn based on current information about the course
of the pandemic. In Chap. 7 we will compare and discuss the characteristics of the first
waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in different countries and WHO regions.
Constant changes in the pandemic conditions (i.e., in the peculiarities of quar-
antine and its violation, in situations with testing and isolation of patients, in
coronavirus activity due to its mutations, etc.) cause changes in the values of
parameters of the mathematical models and lead to new pandemic waves. In par-
ticular, in October 2020 we observed a sharp increase in the daily number of new
cases in many European countries. We will develop simple methods of detecting
these changes and propose a simple method of identifying new pandemic waves.
The numerical differentiation of smoothed dependences of the accumulated number
of cases allows selecting periods with different values of SIR parameters.
To simulate different pandemic waves (periods with more or less constant values
of its dynamics parameters), a general SIR model and its exact solution will be
proposed. The identification procedures for the parameters of the general SIR model
will be described. The characteristics of several pandemic waves in Ukraine and the
world will be calculated and corresponding predictions will be presented.
To have good accuracy of predictions, the pandemic dynamics must be updated
with the use of new data sets. Because of this, a simple method to assess the final
Introduction ix

size and duration of epidemic waves was proposed in Chap. 13 and applied for
USA, Germany, the UK, the Republic of Korea, Italy, Austria, Spain, France, the
Republic of Moldova, Sweden, Ukraine, the city of Kyiv and the whole world.
I would like to express my sincere thanks to Profs. Dirk Langemann (Technische
Universitaet Braunschweig) and Juergen Prestin (Universitaet zu Luebeck) for their
support in developing the used optimization approach. I would also like to thank
Profs. Alberto Redaelli, Giuseppe Passoni, and Gianfranco Fiore (Politecnico di
Milano), Sergei Pereverzyev (RICAM, Linz, Austria) for involving me in very
interesting biomedical investigations under the EU-funded Horizon 2020 projects:
EUMLS (grant PIRSES-GA-2011-295164-EUMLS) and AMMODIT (grant
MSCA-RISE 645672).
Finally, my thanks to Academician Viktor Grinchenko, Profs. Volodymyr
Tymofeyev, Alexander Galkin, Pavlo Maslianko, my friends Liudmyla Trotsenko,
Maia Troian, Nina Basiuk, Anna Voronka, Daria Cusitcaia, Damien Berezenko,
Anatolii Podkur, Volodymyr Borysenko, and Oleksii Rodionov for their support
and help in collecting and processing data.
Contents

1 Data Used for Calculations, Comparisons, and Verifications . . . . . 1

2 Early Stages of Epidemics and Exponential Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3 Comparisons of the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic
in Different Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
4 Classical SIR Model and the Exact Solution of Differential
Equations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
5 Statistics-Based Procedure of Parameter Identification
for the Classical SIR Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
6 SIR Simulations for the First Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic
in Different Countries and Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
6.1 Mainland China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
6.2 The Republic of Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
6.3 Italy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
6.4 Austria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
6.5 Spain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
6.6 France . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
6.7 Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
6.8 The UK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
6.9 USA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
6.10 The Republic of Moldova . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
6.11 Ukraine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
6.12 Kyiv . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
6.13 The World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
7 Comparison of the First Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic
in Different Countries and Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
8 Identification of the New Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic . . . . . 109

xi
xii Contents

9 General SIR Model and Its Exact Solution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127

10 Procedures of Parameter Identification for the Waves
of Epidemics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
11 Applications of the General SIR Model for Calculations
of the COVID-19 Epidemic Waves in Ukraine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
12 Global Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
13 Long-Time Predictions for the Pandemic Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
14 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
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