Topic : China Taiwan Tensions: The role of US
Foreign Policy
Introduction:
The People’s Republic of China has stayed separated from what it calls its own
territory, Taiwan, by geography as well as ideology. Formally known as the
Republic of China, Taiwan has always considered itself a separate state having its
socio-political system at odds with Mao Zedong’s China. To this day, Taiwan fails
to get recognition as a sovereign state in the United Nations and is only
considered an independent country by fifteen states. This can be attributed to
China, which has successfully prevailed the “One China Policy” in global spheres.
American stance on Sino-Taiwanese conflict:
The United States of America, like the rest of the world, does not recognize
Taiwan as an independent state. The world’s biggest democracy surprisingly
chose to establish formal diplomatic ties with an autocratic China over Taiwan, a
fellow democracy. However, this doesn’t mean that the US has taken the path of
isolationism in this conflict between China and Taiwan. There is a policy to
determine its role in the cross-strait relations termed strategic ambiguity. This
refers to a situation where a government deliberately remains ambiguous on
certain aspects of its foreign policy. According to the lines of this policy, the
United States supports the status quo and its peaceful transition through bilateral
efforts. What it does not support is the exhibition of unilateral attempts by either
of the sides to alter the current political status of Taiwan. This is a policy of “dual
deterrence”, where the US will not intervene in the Sino Taiwanese conflict unless
China uses unilateral and non-peaceful means to “unify” the small island with its
mainland. This not only dissuades China from invading Taiwan at the cost of
risking a conflict with western powers, but also keeps Taiwan from declaring de
jure independence. Therefore, while the US maintains formal ties with China, it
also continues to assist Taiwan on the lines of defense in its course of preparation
against a potential Chinese invasion. This is a perplexing situation for the US as it
struggles to maintain duality in its politics by supporting both sides.
The Current Situation:
The increasing intensity of the conflict can be perceived by an ongoing arms race
where both parties increase the display of their military might to uphold the
strength of their positions. As the US plays the role of a helping hand in the
strengthening of Taiwanese military, it sways on the borders of the so called
strategic ambiguity. China is alarmed by this western inclination towards an
unequivocal support for Taiwan. China has, on more than one occasions, clearly
warned the country from interfering between the two warring states.
Nonetheless the US fails to adhere to the limitations of its role here that are set
by the Taiwan Relations Act.
The last nail in the coffin of the Sino American agreement over Taiwan was
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s much opposed visit to the Island on August
2, 2022. As a part of her Asia tour, she insisted on making a stop at Taiwan, even
after being advised otherwise by the Biden Administration as well as The Chinese
President Xi Jinping himself. This symbolic visit, which achieved nothing
substantial for Taiwan, has amplified the tense nature of US China relationship
prompting unforeseeable consequences.
This incident can become the face of US aberrance from the standards of
conditional intervention it had set itself. In a two hours long call with Biden, Xi
Jinping warned him not to ‘play with fire’ hinting at the speaker’s visit. This was a
very clear admonition to his American counterpart after he observed their
increasing intervention in Taiwan’s defense matters. It is impolitic for the US to
put its relationship with China in peril because of such impetuous incidents. There
is a high chance that the present situation, led by a provoked Chinese president,
will pose a challenge to global peace and security.
A Possible Chinese Invasion:
As a response to the Speaker's official visit, China geared up for military drills near
the coast of Taiwan to preserve its territorial integrity. This could be a warning to
the Taiwanese government and its unofficial ally of a possible Chinese invasion in
the face of secessionist forces. The inability of Taiwan to defend itself against
China in a military combat without any external aid cannot be questioned. Taiwan
may be ready to keep China off its coast for a while with the help of arm supplies
and mentoring services of the US, but it will take much more than that to drive
away the Chinese from taking over the Island completely.
The possible future of the Sino-Taiwanese conflict has striking similarities with the
present-day Ukraine and Russia conflict. It seems like another democracy will
have to put up against its much stronger, and militarily capable neighbor at the
mercy of intervention from external powers. This time, even the American
government is rather hesitant to intervene as it does not want a new military
adventure given its exhaustive history of self-provoked military operations around
the globe. In addition to this, a new military conflict will only add to the turmoil of
the global economy suffering from the consequences of Russian invasion in
Ukraine.
The question arises whether the US is actually ready to meet the claims it makes
of defending Taiwan against its greatest competitor. The answer to this question
remains ambiguous like its policy. On one hand, there are detrimental outcomes
of the Russia-Ukraine war that should be taken into consideration. On the other
hand, is the record of US foreign policy characterized by a pattern of not learning
from past mistakes. What the US needs now is a well thought policy with
measures that don’t start new controversies for an already vulnerable conflict.
Conclusion:
The future of the Sino Taiwanese war will shape the course of peace and stability
around the globe. The efficacy of using armed tactics to resolve this political
impasse is not high and alternative solutions should be explored. The world is not
ready to face another war involving nuclear powers amid economic and climatic
challenges.
