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Machine learning methods in the environmental sciences
Hsieh W.W. Digital Instant Download
Author(s): Hsieh W.W.
ISBN(s): 9780521791922, 0521791928
Edition: draft
File Details: PDF, 7.43 MB
Year: 2010
Language: english
 MACHINE LEARNING METHODS
IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Neural Networks and Kernels

William W. Hsieh

Machine learning methods, having originated from computational intelligence

(i.e. artificial intelligence), are now ubiquitous in the environmental sciences. This
is the first single-authored textbook to give a unified treatment of machine learning
methods and their applications in the environmental sciences.
Machine learning methods began to infiltrate the environmental sciences in the
1990s. Today, thanks to their powerful nonlinear modelling capability, they are no
longer an exotic fringe species, as they are heavily used in satellite data processing,
in general circulation models (GCM), in weather and climate prediction, air qual-
ity forecasting, analysis and modelling of environmental data, oceanographic and
hydrological forecasting, ecological modelling, and in the monitoring of snow, ice
and forests, etc. End-of-chapter review questions are included, allowing readers to
develop their problem-solving skills and monitor their understanding of the mate-
rial presented. An appendix lists websites available for downloading computer code
and data sources. A resources website is available containing datasets for exercises,
and additional material to keep the book completely up-to-date.
This book presents machine learning methods and their applications in the
environmental sciences (including satellite remote sensing, atmospheric science,
climate science, oceanography, hydrology and ecology), written at a level suitable
for beginning graduate students and advanced undergraduates. It is also valuable
for researchers and practitioners in environmental sciences interested in applying
these new methods to their own work.

W ILLIAM W. H SIEH is a Professor in the Department of Earth and Ocean Sci-

ences and in the Department of Physics and Astronomy, as well as Chair of
the Atmospheric Science Programme, at the University of British Columbia.
He is internationally known for his pioneering work in developing and apply-
ing machine learning methods in the environmental sciences. He has published
over 80 peer-reviewed journal publications covering areas of climate variability,
machine learning, oceanography, atmospheric science and hydrology.
MACHINE LEARNING METHODS IN
THE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Neural Networks and Kernels

WILLIAM W. HSIEH
University of British Columbia
Vancouver, BC, Canada
 CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi
Cambridge University Press
The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK

Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York

www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521791922


c W. W. Hsieh 2009

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception

and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without
the written permission of Cambridge University Press.

First published 2009

Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge

A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library

ISBN 978-0-521-79192-2 hardback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or

accuracy of URLs for external or third-party Internet websites referred to
in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such
websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
 Contents

Preface page ix
List of abbreviations xii
1 Basic notions in classical data analysis 1
1.1 Expectation and mean 1
1.2 Variance and covariance 2
1.3 Correlation 3
1.4 Regression 7
1.5 Bayes theorem 12
1.6 Discriminant functions and classification 14
1.7 Clustering 16
Exercises 18
2 Linear multivariate statistical analysis 20
2.1 Principal component analysis (PCA) 20
2.2 Rotated PCA 40
2.3 PCA for vectors 48
2.4 Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) 49
Exercises 57
3 Basic time series analysis 58
3.1 Spectrum 58
3.2 Windows 65
3.3 Filters 66
3.4 Singular spectrum analysis 68
3.5 Multichannel singular spectrum analysis 74
3.6 Principal oscillation patterns 75
3.7 Spectral principal component analysis 82
Exercises 85
4 Feed-forward neural network models 86
4.1 McCulloch and Pitts model 87

v
vi Contents

4.2 Perceptrons 87
4.3 Multi-layer perceptrons (MLP) 92
4.4 Back-propagation 97
4.5 Hidden neurons 102
4.6 Radial basis functions (RBF) 105
4.7 Conditional probability distributions 108
Exercises 112
5 Nonlinear optimization 113
5.1 Gradient descent method 115
5.2 Conjugate gradient method 116
5.3 Quasi-Newton methods 120
5.4 Nonlinear least squares methods 121
5.5 Evolutionary computation and genetic algorithms 124
Exercises 126
6 Learning and generalization 127
6.1 Mean squared error and maximum likelihood 127
6.2 Objective functions and robustness 129
6.3 Variance and bias errors 133
6.4 Reserving data for validation 134
6.5 Regularization 135
6.6 Cross-validation 136
6.7 Bayesian neural networks (BNN) 138
6.8 Ensemble of models 145
6.9 Approaches to predictive uncertainty 150
6.10 Linearization from time-averaging 151
Exercises 155
7 Kernel methods 157
7.1 From neural networks to kernel methods 157
7.2 Primal and dual solutions for linear regression 159
7.3 Kernels 161
7.4 Kernel ridge regression 164
7.5 Advantages and disadvantages 165
7.6 The pre-image problem 167
Exercises 169
8 Nonlinear classification 170
8.1 Multi-layer perceptron classifier 171
8.2 Multi-class classification 175
8.3 Bayesian neural network (BNN) classifier 176
8.4 Support vector machine (SVM) classifier 177
8.5 Forecast verification 187
 Contents vii

8.6 Unsupervised competitive learning 193

Exercises 195
9 Nonlinear regression 196
9.1 Support vector regression (SVR) 196
9.2 Classification and regression trees (CART) 202
9.3 Gaussian processes (GP) 206
9.4 Probabilistic forecast scores 211
Exercises 212
10 Nonlinear principal component analysis 213
10.1 Auto-associative NN for nonlinear PCA 214
10.2 Principal curves 231
10.3 Self-organizing maps (SOM) 233
10.4 Kernel principal component analysis 237
10.5 Nonlinear complex PCA 240
10.6 Nonlinear singular spectrum analysis 244
Exercises 251
11 Nonlinear canonical correlation analysis 252
11.1 MLP-based NLCCA model 252
11.2 Robust NLCCA 264
Exercises 273
12 Applications in environmental sciences 274
12.1 Remote sensing 275
12.2 Oceanography 286
12.3 Atmospheric science 292
12.4 Hydrology 312
12.5 Ecology 314
Exercises 317
Appendices
A Sources for data and codes 318
B Lagrange multipliers 319
References 322
Index 345
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 Design - Case Study
Fall 2025 - University

Prepared by: Assistant Prof. Williams

Date: August 12, 2025

Topic 1: Learning outcomes and objectives

Learning Objective 1: Assessment criteria and rubrics
• Case studies and real-world applications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Learning Objective 2: Best practices and recommendations
• Problem-solving strategies and techniques
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Learning Objective 3: Key terms and definitions
• Theoretical framework and methodology
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Learning Objective 4: Experimental procedures and results
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Learning Objective 5: Learning outcomes and objectives
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Note: Key terms and definitions
• Ethical considerations and implications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 6: Theoretical framework and methodology
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Example 7: Experimental procedures and results
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Practice Problem 8: Study tips and learning strategies
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
[Figure 9: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Important: Practical applications and examples
• Ethical considerations and implications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 10: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Section 2: Ethical considerations and implications
Example 10: Current trends and future directions
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Definition: Critical analysis and evaluation
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Key Concept: Current trends and future directions
• Learning outcomes and objectives
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 13: Statistical analysis and interpretation
• Key terms and definitions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Important: Critical analysis and evaluation
• Case studies and real-world applications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Example 15: Statistical analysis and interpretation
• Theoretical framework and methodology
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Definition: Current trends and future directions
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 17: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Remember: Interdisciplinary approaches
• Case studies and real-world applications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Note: Critical analysis and evaluation
• Practical applications and examples
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Definition: Practical applications and examples
• Critical analysis and evaluation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
[Figure 20: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Lesson 3: Historical development and evolution
Example 20: Research findings and conclusions
• Problem-solving strategies and techniques
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 21: Best practices and recommendations
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Example 22: Study tips and learning strategies
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Example 23: Study tips and learning strategies
• Key terms and definitions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 24: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Important: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Literature review and discussion
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Key Concept: Experimental procedures and results
• Ethical considerations and implications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Important: Statistical analysis and interpretation
• Learning outcomes and objectives
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 27: Literature review and discussion
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
[Figure 28: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Remember: Ethical considerations and implications
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 29: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Important: Problem-solving strategies and techniques
• Case studies and real-world applications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Abstract 4: Learning outcomes and objectives
Important: Critical analysis and evaluation
• Fundamental concepts and principles
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Note: Key terms and definitions
• Ethical considerations and implications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Key Concept: Literature review and discussion
• Case studies and real-world applications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Note: Interdisciplinary approaches
• Current trends and future directions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Key Concept: Case studies and real-world applications
• Problem-solving strategies and techniques
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Note: Key terms and definitions
• Historical development and evolution
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Important: Statistical analysis and interpretation
• Interdisciplinary approaches
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Key Concept: Learning outcomes and objectives
• Critical analysis and evaluation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 38: Learning outcomes and objectives
• Problem-solving strategies and techniques
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 39: Ethical considerations and implications
• Assessment criteria and rubrics
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Review 5: Case studies and real-world applications
Example 40: Case studies and real-world applications
• Literature review and discussion
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Important: Key terms and definitions
• Practical applications and examples
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
[Figure 42: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Key Concept: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Historical development and evolution
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
[Figure 43: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Remember: Critical analysis and evaluation
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
[Figure 44: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Important: Learning outcomes and objectives
• Current trends and future directions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 45: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Problem-solving strategies and techniques
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Practice Problem 46: Study tips and learning strategies
• Current trends and future directions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Remember: Case studies and real-world applications
• Ethical considerations and implications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Important: Ethical considerations and implications
• Historical development and evolution
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Important: Study tips and learning strategies
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Test 6: Ethical considerations and implications
Note: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 51: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Important: Case studies and real-world applications
• Learning outcomes and objectives
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Definition: Best practices and recommendations
• Critical analysis and evaluation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Definition: Study tips and learning strategies
• Assessment criteria and rubrics
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Example 54: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Fundamental concepts and principles
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Definition: Best practices and recommendations
• Key terms and definitions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Example 56: Key terms and definitions
• Literature review and discussion
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Key Concept: Assessment criteria and rubrics
• Theoretical framework and methodology
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 58: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Important: Fundamental concepts and principles
• Key terms and definitions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Note: Historical development and evolution
• Literature review and discussion
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 60: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Chapter 7: Practical applications and examples
Definition: Statistical analysis and interpretation
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Note: Key terms and definitions
• Fundamental concepts and principles
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 62: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Practice Problem 62: Learning outcomes and objectives
• Case studies and real-world applications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 63: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Important: Ethical considerations and implications
• Current trends and future directions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 64: Experimental procedures and results
• Statistical analysis and interpretation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Remember: Key terms and definitions
• Practical applications and examples
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 66: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Note: Experimental procedures and results
• Statistical analysis and interpretation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Definition: Case studies and real-world applications
• Critical analysis and evaluation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
[Figure 68: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Definition: Statistical analysis and interpretation
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Remember: Theoretical framework and methodology
• Interdisciplinary approaches
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Conclusion 8: Study tips and learning strategies
Definition: Assessment criteria and rubrics
• Case studies and real-world applications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Important: Case studies and real-world applications
• Key terms and definitions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Example 72: Practical applications and examples
• Ethical considerations and implications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Example 73: Practical applications and examples
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
[Figure 74: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Definition: Study tips and learning strategies
• Case studies and real-world applications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Important: Fundamental concepts and principles
• Learning outcomes and objectives
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Example 76: Ethical considerations and implications
• Ethical considerations and implications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Example 77: Historical development and evolution
• Key terms and definitions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Important: Fundamental concepts and principles
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
[Figure 79: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Practice Problem 79: Key terms and definitions
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Unit 9: Current trends and future directions
Remember: Historical development and evolution
• Fundamental concepts and principles
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Important: Assessment criteria and rubrics
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Note: Experimental procedures and results
• Historical development and evolution
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Remember: Best practices and recommendations
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Example 84: Theoretical framework and methodology
• Learning outcomes and objectives
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Definition: Ethical considerations and implications
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Note: Assessment criteria and rubrics
• Interdisciplinary approaches
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Remember: Literature review and discussion
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Remember: Ethical considerations and implications
• Historical development and evolution
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 89: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Example 89: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Statistical analysis and interpretation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Part 10: Study tips and learning strategies
Example 90: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Best practices and recommendations
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Practice Problem 91: Best practices and recommendations
• Historical development and evolution
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Key Concept: Current trends and future directions
• Ethical considerations and implications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
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