Fractalfract 07 00595
Fractalfract 07 00595
Review
An Overview of Mathematical Modelling in Cancer Research:
Fractional Calculus as Modelling Tool
Lourenço Côrte Vieira 1 , Rafael S. Costa 1,2, * and Duarte Valério 1, *
Abstract: Cancer is a complex disease, responsible for a significant portion of global deaths. The
increasing prioritisation of know-why over know-how approaches in biological research has favoured
the rising use of both white- and black-box mathematical techniques for cancer modelling, seeking to
better grasp the multi-scale mechanistic workings of its complex phenomena (such as tumour-immune
interactions, drug resistance, tumour growth and diffusion, etc.). In light of this wide-ranging use of
mathematics in cancer modelling, the unique memory and non-local properties of Fractional Calculus
(FC) have been sought after in the last decade to replace ordinary differentiation in the hypothesising
of FC’s superior modelling of complex oncological phenomena, which has been shown to possess
an accumulated knowledge of its past states. As such, this review aims to present a thorough
and structured survey about the main guiding trends and modelling categories in cancer research,
emphasising in the field of oncology FC’s increasing employment in mathematical modelling as a
whole. The most pivotal research questions, challenges and future perspectives are also outlined.
predicted 609,360 total deaths in 2022—corresponding to almost 1700 deaths per day—with
the greatest predicted deaths being due to lung, prostate and colorectum cancer in men
and lung, breast and colorectum cancer in women [11] (Table 1).
Table 1. Ranking of the ten leading types of cancer for both men and women, pertaining to estimated
new cases and deaths, as projected for 2022 in the United States (adapted from [11]).
Despite there still being no definite cause for cancer [4], there have been positive
prospects of oncological understanding in light of the wide-ranging use of mathematics in
cancer research, since it has become clear that many biological problems demand meth-
ods and techniques requiring not only traditionally applied mathematics, but also pure
mathematics, statistics and computation [7]. Thus, with the rapid evolution of biological
modelling, control and optimisation theory and its potential of application in the cutting
edge of the medicinal field (e.g., in nanomedicine [12]), the role of mathematics in can-
cer research has continued to be increasingly prominent in whatever theoretical forms it
manifests its importance [13], as presented through the field of Mathematical Oncology.
One sub-area of exponential incidence of mathematics in Mathematical Oncology has
been in the modelling of tumour responses [14], since it poses a valuable and inexpensive
tool for prediction of treatment outcomes and identification of potential therapeutic combi-
nations with minimal adverse effects [15]. A large part of this modelling research has been
obtained through the development of models comprising Ordinary Differential Equations
(ODEs) [16], though the existent and severely studied ones for cancerous tumour growth
lack in non-locality effect, affecting the system’s overall robustness [17]. In response to this
major shortcoming, Fractional Calculus (FC) has come into the oncological fold through
fractional order modelling (also referred to as non-integer or arbitrary order), i.e., through
models employing Fractional Differential Equations (FDEs), since its mathematical nature
may allow for a better description and understanding of oncological particularities [18].
Yet, in spite (or even because) of the rise of Mathematical Oncology’s relevance in can-
cer research, criticism has surged as to the responsibility of the scientific community to
Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, 595 3 of 22
“critically evaluate and discuss if model predictions are an academic exercise or have true
translational merit” [14].
In light of all this, and with the relatively recent implementation of FC in oncology,
attempts have risen in prospects of conceiving mathematical models that may describe the
real cancerous phenomena with greater fidelity in its utmost complexity, thus aiming for a
better understanding of the system’s interactions and potentially the apt prediction of its
future states.
Here, we present a comprehensive review on both the trends of mathematical mod-
elling in oncology research and FC’s own increasing usage in mathematical modelling,
with special emphasis in oncology. It is organised in two main sections, as follows: Section 2
provides a thorough contextualisation of mathematical modelling in oncology as a re-
search procedure, exposing different modelling categories, techniques, considerations and
methodological frameworks; Section 3 presents a brief history of FC as a theoretical field,
emphasising its advantageous features as a modelling tool through general applications
and, most crucially, through the study of its use in Mathematical Oncology, highlighting
the ways in which Fractional Calculus has been shown to be a welcome fit for this still
novel research branch. Section 4 closes the paper with concluding remarks.
provide a global view on the pathogenesis of this disease, for which in silico techniques—
understood as studies performed and/or relying on computer simulations—have then
been gradually sought after in oncology [20]. These in silico approaches—of which mathe-
matical modelling is part of—are also crucial in the realization of the 3R’s (replacement,
reduction and refinement) that will lead cancer research toward efficient and effective pre-
cision medicine [24], while also allowing for the reduction in animal experiments in clinical
studies [25]—and even though validation of computational models still requires results
stemming from in vitro and in vivo experiments, the shift still does reduce laboratory
work [24]. This transition may also be given to research activities progressively prioritising
know-why over know-how, thus contributing to the further conception of models suitably
combining both data-oriented and phenomenological approaches [18], though the latter
still remains an underexplored niche to a large extent [22]. Additionally, the financial angle
also presents a major upshot when adhering to mathematical modelling methods, consid-
ering that it may help researchers answer questions of oncological nature by modelling
therapeutic options and thus predicting treatment and toxicity outcomes prior to the onset
of lengthy and expensive trials [15], since studies have shown the costly reality of drug
developments [26].
In this context, Mathematical Oncology has gradually developed as an accepted area
of cancer research [22] that broadens the development and potential application of models
in comprehending manifold phenomena, of which tumour growth dynamics, personalized
treatment and anti-cancer therapies are part of [18]. It is mostly characterized by two
main ideas [21]: (1) that mathematics can be applied to improve biomedical knowledge
of cancer; (2) that biology itself produces new mathematical challenges which compel the
development and enhancement of mathematical tools. As of the last years, the authors
of [7] specifically list some of mathematical oncology’s main research goals which it aims
to achieve in the future (here adapted, with recent cases of positive progression), as its
role becomes more and more prominent in oncology: (i) prediction and optimization
of patient-specific treatment strategies (e.g., [27]); (ii) definition and facilitation of the
immune system’s role in cancer (e.g., [28]); (iii) integration of molecular scale data into
multi-scale models (e.g., [29]); (iv) understanding and minimisation of the emergence of
drug/treatment resistance (e.g., [30]); and (v) and greater integration with systems biology
(e.g., [15]). Naturally, this implies the pivotal demand of an inter- and multidisciplinary
approach in the research field [22] (Figure 1), further evidenced by the many distinctions to
be made of mathematical models according to their assumptions and purpose, as well as
their invoking of concepts from different areas [18]. It has also been supported and further
shown how cross-disciplinary collaboration can accelerate positive results in the further
understanding and treatment of cancer [31].
Figure 2. Classification of in silico models based on the spatial length scale, from the gene to
population levels (adapted from [20], with figures from [40–45]).
mately hurt patients if treated with ill-informed protocols [78]. Clear suggestions towards
the creation of a biologically sound academic model can be found in [31], listing the fol-
lowing stages of development: (1) formulation of a biological hypothesis; (2) stating of
modelling assumptions, as well as identification of key physical variables; (3) conception of
“word” equations for all involved variables and identification of of the physical processes
regulating their dynamics, followed by (4) conversion of said equations into mathematical
language, specifying all functional forms; (5) solving the resultant mathematical model
through appropriate numerical and analytical techniques; and (6) checking the consistency
of the results with the originally formulated biological hypothesis.
Lastly, regarding the conception of translational models, three distinct modelling ap-
proaches when dealing with data are depicted in [30]: (1) top-down data-driven modelling,
built predominantly upon observed clinical data and leaning towards a more empirical
description of the system (e.g., PK/PD models [73]), though they may neglect important
tumour-immune interactions; (2) bottom-up modelling, being of a more white-box na-
ture by invoking clinical information as input data, fitting a mechanistic structure; and
(3) middle-out modelling, which combines both previous approaches into one that pro-
vides a quantitative platform for model development in clinical scenarios [30]. Noticeably,
the mentioned approaches parallel the black-, white- and grey-box natures, respectively.
Furthermore, the authors of [14] extensively list the crucial stages that have to be
followed and verified for a mathematical model to make reliable and testable predictions of
novel treatment strategies (here adapted): (1) identification of a putative biomarker, which
may range from the number of cancer cells in a petri dish to tumour volume derived from
medical imaging; (2) development of a mechanistic model by means of one of the modelling
techniques already referred, taking into consideration the spatio-temporal nature of the
available data, as well as balancing the model’s complexity with the degrees of freedom—
also employing Occam’s razor concept if possible [55]; (3) calibration of the model through
existing data, derived as less as possible from empirical wisdom or the literature but
from realistic conditions, using machine learning and statistical tools to derive values if
need be; (4) validation of the model with untrained data, evaluated via methods such
as R2 analyses, for instance; (5) evaluation of the predictive performance for a known
treatment, since a model’s ability to fit data does not imply its predictive power [57],
being the calculation of Positive Predictive Value (PPV) and Negative Predictive Value
(NPV) strongly advised—while yet there being no conventional notion of acceptable cut-
offs for predictive performance; and (6) simulation and prediction of untested treatment
alternatives, i.e., therapy dosages and schedules that can be derived from the model,
posterior to calibration and validation, for which it was trained to predict—and being
carefully considerate of determinants such as clinical feasibility, drug half-life or toxicity
when evaluating optimal regimes and dosages, requiring a rigorous control approach.
Later on, this mathematical conundrum did not escape Euler’s attention, who also
questioned the subject’s nature, as well as that of other mathematicians, such as Lagrange
and Laplace [81]. Years of speculations also prompted the reformulation of the initial
question to one in which the derivative’s order n (now taken as α) could generally be taken
as any value, thus embracing the possibilities of it being irrational or even complex [82].
Despite a history of subsequent hypothesising, fractional derivatives remained for the
longest time an abstract albeit interesting mathematical concept [83].
values (if the independent variable is temporal, thus y(t)) or long-range interactions (if the
independent variable(s) is/are spatial), since the fractional derivative computation of a
specific point depends on an average over an interval containing such value [94], granting
thus a history or accumulation of information which integer order differentiation, using a
local operator, does not supply. This same property could then be exploited into the forms
of short- and long-term memories [83].
Taking this property into account, a possible physical interpretation was provided
by [95], defining the fractional order α as the index of memory for the physical process,
for which then α = 0 means that nothing is memorized, while α = 1 that nothing is
forgotten. It is then supposed that many physical processes are best modelled by means
of a fractional order operating between these extremes [74]. As Westerlund boldly and
optimistically claimed in 1990, this reveals a powerful advantage when employing fractional
order differential equations (FDEs), when compared to their integer counterpart, i.e.,
ODE: “all systems need a fractional time derivative in the equations that describe them.
(. . . ) It is necessary to include this record of events in order to predict the future (. . . )
[as such behaviour is impossible to predict] with less than an infinite number of initial
conditions, which is the same as saying that the whole function describing the past must be
known” [96].
Nonetheless, as expressed in [94], this mathematical property mainly sets out three fun-
damental questions. (1) Are models composed of space and/or time fractional derivatives
consistent with the governing and fundamental laws and symmetries of nature? (2) Even if
so, how is the fractional order α to be experimentally observed? (3) How may a fractional
derivative emerge from models not containing them? Additionally, [97] identified yet
more open problems stemming from FC’s mathematical analysis, numerical processing,
and application in physics, specifically, mentioning issues such as the computational cost
related to the non-locality property and its numerical implications. On the theoretical end,
monograph [98] offers a selection of problems related to positive one- and two-dimensional
fractional linear systems, mapping out its fundamentals notions. These are some of the
questions Fractional Calculus’s theory and main property opened up, having prompted
researchers to further investigate its possible applications in real-life phenomena.
exposed in [112], also highlighting its increasing use as a control tool, for instance in the
improvement of a precision positioning stage, betterment of active damping controllers or
solution of problems pertaining to the asymptotic stability of inverted pendulum systems
(respective references in [112]).
On the realm of models making use of variable order fractional differential equa-
tions, their importance has been remarkably acknowledged as a precise and alternative
approach in the description of real-life phenomena [113], with some notable applications in
Duffing systems, time-dependent mechanical property evolution in materials with strain
softening behaviour, transient dispersion in heterogeneous media, digital cryptography,
with respective references in the survey [113] and other examples in [114].
and further prospects of modelling improvement have been shown with variable order
fractional equations-based models [121], identifying the arbitrary order α as an index of
tumour memory.
However, as noted, these are still early albeit promising prospects of application
of Fractional Calculus in oncology, and current literature is still somewhat scarce in the
systematisation and surveying of its many possible employments. In spite of this, Table 2
highlights and gathers 22 significant progresses registered in the last 9 years of literature
in cancer research, as modelled through FC. The selection criteria was proceeded so as
to provide a sufficiently wide-ranging representation of different fractional operators’
applications, across a variety of treatments and cancer types. Special emphasis is given to
the Caputo definition, since it is the one most often resorted to, notably due to its suitability
in dealing with initial-valued problems in natural phenomena modelling [18,121], and
with variants such as Caputo–Fabrizio revealing to be a revolutionary fractional operator,
given its nonsingular kernel, piquing the interest of scholars [124]. Examples of other lesser
used operators in oncological modelling such as Grünwald–Letnikov and Hadamard are
also present. While the following is not a systematic review, certain keywords resorted
to in the search were (“non-integer” OR “fractional” OR “variable order” OR “Caputo”
OR “Grünwald-Letnikov” OR “Riemann-Liouville” OR “Hadamard” OR “ABC”) AND
(“mathematical oncology” OR ((“cancer” OR “tumour”) AND (“mathematical modelling”
OR “differential equation(s)”))). Searches were furthermore complemented by citation
searching. Finally, some entries are adapted from the overview conducted in [74].
Table 2. Cont.
From the wide array of contributions compiled in Table 2, common features, method-
ologies and conclusions may be traced. Regarding cancer dynamics, beyond the can-
cer types themselves, articles such as [127,132,138,140] rely on the modelling of tumour-
immune interactions through FDEs. They thus consider the mutual effect of a given
tumour’s cells with the immune system, represented by its effector cells (e.g., cytotoxic
T-cells, natural killer cells and possibly assuming interleukin-2 concentration [127,140]—or
macrophages and host cells [138]), and in cases adapt prey-predator dynamics [132]. How-
ever, most mathematical models of cancer in Table 2 either approach the tumour alone
through, e.g., modelling its volumetric growth [56,121], or consider merely tumour-immune
interactions with the possibility of treatment intervention, with few others considering
populations beyond (e.g., fat cells [71]). Moreover, the majority of the models presented
operate in the spatial scale of the tissue level. Other contributions concerning the modelling
of specific treatment drug effects feature PK/PD models instead [128,130,133].
As for the mathematical techniques employed, most selected contributions conceive
FDE-based models of cancer dynamics [56,127,128,132,134–136,139,140], with the fractional
Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, 595 16 of 22
operator most resorted to being Caputo’s, as noted in Table 2. On the other hand, the use
of Fractional Calculus when modelling anomalous diffusive processes occurring in on-
cological phenomena is conducted through PDE-based models [120,123,125,126,129,137].
Furthermore, the possibility of a shifting arbitrary order (whether time-variable or not) is
made possible with VODE-based cancer models, as expressed in contributions [121,130].
In spite of these differences, the majority of the aforementioned mathematical models
assume time-fractional differential equations [56,120,121,124–129], thus endowing the can-
cer dynamics with memory effects as granted by a positive, fractional α, and hence not
challenging the spatially isotropic nature of these models, when diffusion through PDEs
is concerned. Additionally, regarding parameterisation, seldom articles openly state data
fitting procedures (e.g., least squares curve fitting method (LSCFM) [138]) using exper-
imentally obtained clinical data [56,121,133,135,138], standing out as the ones with the
methodological prospects to be classified as translational, Mathematical Oncology-pertinent
models toward support in clinical decision making and prediction. At last, in spite of their
academic nature, certain mathematical models conduct an optimisation of either the frac-
tional order α that best renders treatment outcomes [126] or of the treatments themselves:
chemotherapy [136] or mixed chemotherapy and immunotherapy doses [71].
Despite all contributions from Table 2 depicting the application of Fractional Calculus
in the mathematical modelling of cancer, the studies on the obtained models vary widely,
ranging from theoretically-veered mathematical investigations to the aforementioned con-
ception of translational data-fitted models. On the former, the existence and unique-
ness (E&U) of solutions is established through fixed point theory [124,131,134,138,140],
with [120] adapting the Faedo-Galerkin approximation method for this effect. Equi-
libria and stability of the fractional differential cancer models is moreover proceeded
(e.g., [134]), with cases of stability of finite difference scheme [71,126], local stability through
Matignon’s theorem [127,132,138] (considering Routh-Hurwitz conditions) or Ulam-Hyers
stability [140]. Furthermore, numerical solutions are computed through approximations
enabled by methods such as: implicit finite difference method [126]; Euler approxima-
tion [127,128]; Legendre wavelet Galerkin method [129]; nonstandard finite difference
(NSFD) method [132]; Adams-Moulton rule [134,138]; Bernoulli polynomials [137]; Adams-
Bashforth [124] and Adams-Bashforth-Moulton predictor-corrector [138]; q-homotopy anal-
ysis method (q-HAM) [125]; Adomian decomposition method [139]; or reduced differential
transform method (RDTM) [123].
Lastly, ultimately hypothesising the role of Fractional Calculus as a modelling tool
in this research branch, several contributions in Table 2 claim that its usage provides in-
teresting and new dynamics’ description into the fold. Indeed, the employment of FDEs
has been shown to enrich the dynamics of tumour-immune interactions while increasing
complexity of observed behaviours [127], and also its order plays an essential role on the
stability of a system’s equilibria [132]. The order’s association with treatment procedures
such as fractioned dose of radiotherapy in [135] yielded a model that can simulate radio-
therapy process and predict results of other radiation protocols. In research resorting to
experimental data, the study of a VODE-based model in [121] pointed to the superiority
of the obtained model in describing such data, in this sense enabling new perspectives in
tumour growth modelling; moreover, the application of FC adjoined with real non-small
cell lung cancer data in [138] led to the stating that with the aid of this modelling tool,
cancer’s different mode of progression when it starts to appear in the body can be better
explained. In the context of PDEs, positive prospects have been registered in [123,129],
in which the time-fractional derivative has been recognised as pivotal in the former to
the success of modelling hyperthermia treatment for metastatic cancerous cells, making
its its prediction precise, while the latter highlights its importance in achieving a better
understanding of chemotherapeutic effects. Furthermore, contributions such as [128] claim
that fractional modelling of PK/PD models provides insight into certain drug dynamics
which would not be captured by classical techniques of ordinary differentiation.
Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, 595 17 of 22
4. Concluding Remarks
With the rise of mathematical modelling techniques into the fold of cancer research, it
becomes ever more urgent to grasp the multiplicity of the models employed by discern-
ing thorough categories pinpointing their modelling assumptions and approach, cancer
features tackled, data availability, spatial scale and involvement of treatments. In a field
initially prompted by the two main goals of applying mathematics in improving oncological
knowledge and simultaneously advance the very mathematical tools it employs, it has
become evident that the past years of mathematical oncology research have engendered
at times confusing purposes for the cancer models developed, with some contributions
adhering to literature parameters, conflicting experimental data and theoretical assump-
tions that disable their mathematical models as sound predictive treatment tools for clinical
decision support and optimisation. In this context, the necessity to devise pertinent frame-
works and distinctions between “academic” (Oncological Mathematics) and “translational”
(Mathematical Oncology) models is revised and highlighted in this article.
In spite (or even because) of this general gap between the academically and the trans-
lationally relevant in the modelling sphere, new mathematical techniques have been sought
after with the hopes to enhance pre-existing mathematical models and modelling frame-
works, with one of the most novel tools being those offered by Fractional Calculus. Indeed,
FC’s main purpose—to generalise integer order differentiation and integration to a frac-
tional, irrational or even complex arbitrary order α—has already shown positive modelling
results in areas like signal and image processing, cryptocurrencies, epidemic spread of
diseases, highway traffic flow and viscoelasticity. However, it is in the modelling of bio-
logical phenomena in which FC has made a bigger impact, since its non-locality/memory
effect considers the weight of a function’s past values in the computation of its fractional
derivative, thus aligned with real-life biological events. Given this, the employment of
FC in the modelling of cancer (e.g., replacing ordinary differential equations or refining
partial differential equations) has been a reasonable endeavour. To illustrate this current
research landscape of a prospective Fractional Mathematical Oncology, several contributions
were selected and reviewed, in which it was concluded that while there is a lack of models
conceived with/from clinical data, the qualitative modelling of phenomena such as tumour
growth and diffusion has revealed valuable insights in understanding the complexities of
this disease.
Author Contributions: Initial survey conducted by L.C.V.; L.C.V., R.S.C. and D.V. conceptualised
the survey; L.C.V., R.S.C. and D.V. wrote the manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the
published version of the manuscript.
Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, 595 18 of 22
Funding: This work was supported by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT), through IDMEC,
under LAETA project (UIDB/50022/2020), and by the Associate Laboratory for Green Chemistry
(LAQV), financed by national funds from FCT/MCTES (UIDB/50006/2020 and UIDP/50006/2020).
R.S.C. acknowledges the contract CEECIND/01399/2017.
Data Availability Statement: Data sharing not applicable.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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