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LEARNING
FROM
DATA
The book website AMLbook. com
contains supporting material for
instructors and readers.
LEARNING FROM DATA
A SHORT COURSE

Yaser S . Abu-Mostafa
California Institute of Technology

Malik Magdon-Ismail
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Hsuan-Tien Lin
National Taiwan University

AMLbook.com
Yaser S. Abu 1/fostafa Malik Magdon Ismail
Departments of Electrical Engineering Department of Computer Science
and Computer Science
California Institute of Technology Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Pasadena, CA 9 1 125, USA Troy, NY 12180, USA
yaser©caltech.edu [email protected]

Hsuan Tien Lin

Department of Computer Science
and Information Engineering
National Taiwan University
Taipei, 106, Taiwan
htlin©csie.ntu.edu.tw

ISBN 1 0: 1 60049 006 9

ISBN 13:978 1 60049 006 4

@2012 Yaser S. Abu Mostafa, Malik Magdon Ismail, Hsuan Tien Lin. 1.10

All rights reserved. This work may not be translated or copied in whole or in part
without the written permission of the authors. No part of this publication may
be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any
means-electronic, mechanical, photocopying, scanning, or otherwise-without prior
written permission of the authors, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of
the 1976 United States Copyright Act.

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the authors have used their best
efforts in preparing this book, they make no representation or warranties with re
spect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically
disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.
No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales
materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your
situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. The authors
shall not be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including
but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.

The use in this publication of tradenames, trademarks, service marks, and similar
terms, even if they are not identified as such, is not to be taken as an expression of
opinion as to whether or not they are subject to proprietary rights.

This book was typeset by the authors and was printed and bound in the United
States of America.
To our teachers) and to our students
P reface

This book is designed for a short course on machine learning. It is a short

course, not a hurried course. From over a decade of teaching this material, we
have distilled what we believe to be the core topics that every student of the
subject should know. We chose the title 'learning from data' that faithfully
describes what the subject is about, and made it a point to cover the topics in
a story-like fashion. Our hope is that the reader can learn all the fundamentals
of the subject by reading the book cover to cover.
Learning from data has distinct theoretical and practical tracks. If you
read two books that focus on one track or the other, you may feel that you
are reading about two different subjects altogether. In this book, we balance
the theoretical and the practical, the mathematical and the heuristic. Our
criterion for inclusion is relevance. Theory that establishes the conceptual
framework for learning is included, and so are heuristics that impact the per­
formance of real learning systems. Strengths and weaknesses of the different
parts are spelled out . Our philosophy is to say it like it is: what we know,
what we don't know, and what we partially know.
The book can be taught in exactly the order it is presented. The notable
exception may be Chapter 2, which is the most theoretical chapter of the book.
The theory of generalization that this chapter covers is central to learning
from data, and we made an effort to make it accessible to a wide readership.
However, instructors who are more interested in the practical side may skim
over it, or delay it until after the practical methods of Chapter 3 are taught.
You will notice that we included exercises (in gray boxes) throughout the
text. The main purpose of these exercises is to engage the reader and enhance
understanding of a particular topic being covered. Our reason for separating
the exercises out is that they are not crucial to the logical flow. Nevertheless,
they contain useful information, and we strongly encourage you to read them,
even if you don't do them to completion. Instructors may find some of the
exercises appropriate as 'easy' homework problems, and we also provide ad­
ditional problems of varying difficulty in the Problems section at the end of
each chapter.
To help instructors with preparing their lectures based on the book, we
provide supporting material on the book's website ( AMLbook. corn) . There is
also a forum that covers additional topics in learning from data. We will

vii
PREFACE

discuss these further in the Epilogue of this book.

Acknowledgment ( in alphabetical order for each group ) : We would like to
express our gratitude to the alumni of our Learning Systems Group at Caltech
who gave us detailed expert feedback: Zehra Cataltepe, Ling Li, Amrit Pratap,
and Joseph Sill. We thank the many students and colleagues who gave us useful
feedback during the development of this book, especially Chun-Wei Liu. The
Caltech Library staff, especially Kristin Buxton and David McCaslin, have
given us excellent advice and help in our self-publishing effort. We also thank
Lucinda Acosta for her help throughout the writing of this book.
Last, but not least, we would like to thank our families for their encourage­
ment, their support, and most of all their patience as they endured the time
demands that writing a book has imposed on us.

Yaser S. Abu-Mostafa, Pasadena, California.

Malik Magdon-Ismail, Troy, New York.
Hsuan-Tien Lin, Taipei, Taiwan.

March, 2012.

viii
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Contents

Prefa e vii
1 The Learning Problem 1
1.1 Problem Setup . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1.1 Components of Learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.1.2 A Simple Learning Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.1.3 Learning versus Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.2 Types of Learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.2.1 Supervised Learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.2.2 Reinfor ement Learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.2.3 Unsupervised Learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.2.4 Other Views of Learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
1.3 Is Learning Feasible? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.3.1 Outside the Data Set . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
1.3.2 Probability to the Res ue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.3.3 Feasibility of Learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
1.4 Error and Noise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
1.4.1 Error Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
1.4.2 Noisy Targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
1.5 Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

2 Training versus Testing 39

2.1 Theory of Generalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
2.1.1 Ee tive Number of Hypotheses . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
2.1.2 Bounding the Growth Fun tion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
2.1.3 The VC Dimension . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
2.1.4 The VC Generalization Bound . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
2.2 Interpreting the Generalization Bound . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
2.2.1 Sample Complexity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
2.2.2 Penalty for Model Complexity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
2.2.3 The Test Set . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
2.2.4 Other Target Types . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
2.3 Approximation-Generalization Tradeo . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

ix
Contents

2.3.1 Bias and Varian e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

2.3.2 The Learning Curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
2.4 Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

3 The Linear Model 77

3.1 Linear Classi ation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
3.1.1 Non-Separable Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
3.2 Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
3.2.1 The Algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
3.2.2 Generalization Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
3.3 Logisti Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
3.3.1 Predi ting a Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
3.3.2 Gradient Des ent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
3.4 Nonlinear Transformation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
3.4.1 The Z Spa e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
3.4.2 Computation and Generalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
3.5 Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109

4 Overtting 119
4.1 When Does Overtting O ur? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
4.1.1 A Case Study: Overtting with Polynomials . . . . . . 120
4.1.2 Catalysts for Overtting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
4.2 Regularization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
4.2.1 A Soft Order Constraint . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
4.2.2 Weight De ay and Augmented Error . . . . . . . . . . . 132
4.2.3 Choosing a Regularizer: Pill or Poison? . . . . . . . . . 134
4.3 Validation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
4.3.1 The Validation Set . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
4.3.2 Model Sele tion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
4.3.3 Cross Validation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
4.3.4 Theory Versus Pra ti e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
4.4 Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154

5 Three Learning Prin iples 167

5.1 O am's Razor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
5.2 Sampling Bias . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
5.3 Data Snooping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
5.4 Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178

Epilogue 181
Further Reading 183
x
Contents

Appendix Proof of the VC Bound 187

A.1 Relating Generalization Error to In-Sample Deviations . . . . . 188
A.2 Bounding Worst Case Deviation Using the Growth Fun tion . . 190
A.3 Bounding the Deviation between In-Sample Errors . . . . . . . 191

Notation 193
Index 197

xi
NOTATION

A complete table of the notation used in

this book is included on page 193, right
before the index of terms. We suggest
referring to it as needed.

xii
Chapter 1

The Learning P ro bl em

If you show a picture to a three-year-old and ask if there is a tree in it, you will
likely get the correct answer. If you ask a thirty-year-old what the definition
of a tree is, you will likely get an inconclusive answer. We didn't learn what
a tree is by studying the mathematical definition of trees. We learned it by
looking at trees. In other words, we learned from 'data'.
Learning from data is used in situations where we don't have an analytic
solution, but we do have data that we can use to construct an empirical solu­
tion. This premise covers a lot of territory, and indeed learning from data is
one of the most widely used techniques in science, engineering, and economics,
among other fields.
In this chapter, we present examples of learning from data and formalize
the learning problem. We also discuss the main concepts associated with
learning, and the different paradigms of learning that have been developed.

1.1 Problem Setup

What do financial forecasting, medical diagnosis, computer vision, and search

engines have in common? They all have successfully utilized learning from
data. The repertoire of such applications is quite impressive. Let us open the
discussion with a real-life application to see how learning from data works.
Consider the problem of predicting how a movie viewer would rate the
various movies out there. This is an important problem if you are a company
that rents out movies, since you want to recommend to different viewers the
movies they will like. Good recommender systems are so important to business
that the movie rental company Netflix offered a prize of one million dollars to
anyone who could improve their recommendations by a mere 103.
The main difficulty in this problem is that the criteria that viewers use to
rate movies are quite complex. Trying to model those explicitly is no easy task,
so it may not be possible to come up with an analytic solution. However, we

1
1 . THE LEARNING PROBLEM 1 . 1 . PROBLEM SETUP

l
viewer

:t\fatch movie and add contributions

from each factor
viewer factors

movie

Figure 1.1: A model for how a viewer rates a movie

know that the historical rating data reveal a lot about how people rate movies,
so we may be able to construct a good empirical solution. There is a great
deal of data available to movie rental companies, since they often ask their
viewers to rate the movies that they have already seen.
Figure 1.1 illustrates a specific approach that was widely used in the
million-dollar competition. Here is how it works. You describe a movie as
a long array of different factors, e.g. , how much comedy is in it, how com­
plicated is the plot, how handsome is the lead actor, etc. Now, you describe
each viewer with corresponding factors; how much do they like comedy, do
they prefer simple or complicated plots, how important are the looks of the
lead actor, and so on. How this viewer will rate that movie is now estimated
based on the match/mismatch of these factors. For example, if the movie is
pure comedy and the viewer hates comedies, the chances are he won't like it.
If you take dozens of these factors describing many facets of a movie's content
and a viewer's taste, the conclusion based on matching all the factors will be
a good predictor of how the viewer will rate the movie.
The power of learning from data is that this entire process can be auto­
mated, without any need for analyzing movie content or viewer taste. To do
so, the learning algorithm 'reverse-engineers' these factors based solely on pre-

2
1 . THE LEARNING PROBLEM 1 . 1 . PROBLEM SETUP

vious ratings. It starts with random factors, then tunes these factors to make
them more and more aligned with how viewers have rated movies before, until
they are ultimately able to predict how viewers rate movies in general. The
factors we end up with may not be as intuitive as 'comedy content', and in
fact can be quite subtle or even incomprehensible. After all, the algorithm is
only trying to find the best way to predict how a viewer would rate a movie,
not necessarily explain to us how it is done. This algorithm was part of the
winning solution in the million-dollar competition.

1. 1. 1 Components of Learning
The movie rating application captures the essence of learning from data, and
so do many other applications from vastly different fields. In order to abstract
the common core of the learning problem, we will pick one application and
use it as a metaphor for the different components of the problem. Let us take
credit approval as our metaphor.
Suppose that a bank receives thousands of credit card applications every
day, and it wants to automate the process of evaluating them. Just as in the
case of movie ratings, the bank knows of no magical formula that can pinpoint
when credit should be approved, but it has a lot of data. This calls for learning
from data, so the bank uses historical records of previous customers to figure
out a good formula for credit approval.
Each customer record has personal information related to credit , such as
annual salary, years in residence, outstanding loans, etc. The record also keeps
track of whether approving credit for that customer was a good idea, i.e . , did
the bank make money on that customer. This data guides the construction of
a successful formula for credit approval that can be used on future applicants.
Let us give names and symbols to the main components of this learning
problem. There is the input x (customer information that is used to make
a credit decision) , the unknown target function f: X -- Y (ideal formula for
credit approval) , where X is the input space ( set of all possible inputs x) , and Y
is the output space (set of all possible outputs, in this case just a yes/no deci­
sion) . There is a data set D of input-output examples (x1 , Y1 ) , · , (xN , YN ) ,
· ·

where Yn = f (xn ) for n = 1, . . . , N (inputs corresponding to previous customers

and the correct credit decision for them in hindsight). The examples are often
referred to as data points. Finally, there is the learning algorithm that uses the
data set D to pick a formula g: X -- Y that approximates f. The algorithm
chooses g from a set of candidate formulas under consideration, which we call
the hypothesis set 1-l . For instance, 1-l could be the set of all linear formulas
from which the algorithm would choose the best linear fit to the data, as we
will introduce later in this section.
When a new customer applies for credit, the bank will base its decision
on g (the hypothesis that the learning algorithm produced) , not on f (the
ideal target function which remains unknown) . The decision will be good only
to the extent that g faithfully replicates f. To achieve that , the algorithm

3
1 . THE LEARNING PROBLEM 1 . 1 . PROBLEM SETUP

UNKNOWN TARGET FUNCTION

f :X Y
(ideal cred'il approval forrn'Ulo)

TRAINING EXAMPLES
· · · ,
(xN, YN)

FINAL
HYPOTHESIS
g� f
(learned credit approval forrn'Ula)

HYPOTHESIS SET
1-

(set of cand,idate form'alas)

Figure 1.2: Basic setup of the learning problem

chooses g that best matches f on the training examples of previous customers,

with the hope that it will continue to match f on new customers. Whether
or not this hope is justified remains to be seen. Figure 1.2 illustrates the
components of the learning problem.
Exercise 1.1
Express each o f the following tasks i n t h e framework o f learning from d ata by
specifying the i nput space X, output space Y, target function f: Y.
a n d the specifics of the data set that we will learn from.
(a) Med ica l diagnosis: A patient wal ks i n with a medical h istory and some
symptoms, a n d you want to identify the problem.
(b) H andwritten digit recognition (for example postal zip code recognition
for m a i l sorting) .
( c) Determi ning if a n email is spam or not.
( d) P redicting how an electric load varies with price, temperature, and
day of the week.
( e) A problem of i nterest to you for which there is no a n alytic sol ution,
but you have data from which to construct an empirica l sol ution .

4
1 . THE LEARNING PROBLEM 1 . 1 . PROBLEM SETUP

We will use the setup in Figure 1.2 as our definition of the learning problem.
Later on, we will consider a number of refinements and variations to this basic
setup as needed. However, the essence of the problem will remain the same.
There is a target to be learned. It is unknown to us. We have a set of examples
generated by the target. The learning algorithm uses these examples to look
for a hypothesis that approximates the target.

1. 1.2 A Simple Learning Model

Let us consider the different components of Figure 1.2. Given a specific learn­
ing problem, the target function and training examples are dictated by the
problem. However, the learning algorithm and hypothesis set are not. These
are solution tools that we get to choose. The hypothesis set and learning
algorithm are referred to informally as the learning model.
Here is a simple model. Let X =]Rd be the input space, where JRd is the
d-dimensional Euclidean space, and let Y = { + 1, - 1 } be the output space,
denoting a binary (yes/no) decision. In our credit example, different coor­
dinates of the input vector x E JRd correspond to salary, years in residence,
outstanding debt, and the other data fields in a credit application. The bi­
nary output y corresponds to approving or denying credit. We specify the
hypothesis set 1{ through a functional form that all the hypotheses h E 1{
share. The functional form h(x) that we choose here gives different weights to
the different coordinates of x, reflecting their relative importance in the credit
decision. The weighted coordinates are then combined to form a 'credit score'
and the result is compared to a threshold value. If the applicant passes the
threshold, credit is approved; if not, credit is denied:

i=I:l
d
Approve credit if WiXi > threshold,

i=I:l
d
Deny credit if WiXi < threshold.

This formula can be written more compactly as

(1.1)

where x i , ··· , x d are the components of the vector x; h(x) = + 1 means 'ap­
prove credit' and h(x) = - 1 means 'deny credit'; sign(s) = + 1 if s > 0 and
sign(s) = - 1 if s < 0. 1 The weights are w1, ··· , wd , and the threshold is
determined by the bias term b since in Equation (1.1) , credit is approved if
I::=l WiXi > - b.
This model of 1{ is called the perceptron, a name that it got in the context
of artificial intelligence. The learning algorithm will search 1{ by looking for
1 The value of sign (s) whens 0 is a simple technicality that we ignore for the moment.

5
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