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Probability

probability definition, probability theorem, addition theorem , multiplication theorem solved problems

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Gaurav Sonkar
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1K views15 pages

Probability

probability definition, probability theorem, addition theorem , multiplication theorem solved problems

Uploaded by

Gaurav Sonkar
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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UNIT IV

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PROBABILITY

Definition of Probability:
If there are n exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely outcomes of a random experiment, and m of them are favourable to an event A, then the probability of happening of A is:

where m is no. of favourable events n is no. of unfavourable events

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Terminology Used in Definition:


Random Experiment:
An occurrence which can be repeated a number of times essentially under the same conditions & whose result cant be predicted beforehand, is known as a random experiment or simply an experiment.

Sample Space & Sample Point:


The set of all possible outcomes of a experiment is called a sample space (S) The elements of sample space are called sample points. A sample space is said to be finite or infinite. For Eg: If we throw a dice, it can result in any of the six numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6.
Therefore sample space of this experiment is S= { 1,2,3,4,5,6 } and

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n(S) = 6

Event:
Any subset of sample space is called an event. If S is a sample space, then it is obvious that the null set and the sample space S it self are events. For eg: E = { 2,4,6} and n (A) = 3

Exhaustive Outcomes:
By exhaustive we mean that all the possible outcomes have been taken into consideration and one of them must happen as a result of an experiment. For Eg(1): If we throw a dice, there are six exhaustive outcomes , namely numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 coming uppermost. Eg(2): In tossing a coin there are two exhaustive out comes namely coming up of head & tail.

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Mutually Exclusive Outcomes:


Outcomes are said to be mutually exclusive if the happening of an outcome excludes the possibility of the happening of other outcomes. For e.g.: In tossing a coin, if head coming up then coming up of tail is excluded in that particular chance.

Equally Likely Outcomes:


Outcomes are said to be equally likely when the occurrence of none of them is expected in preference to others.

Independent & Dependent Event:

Two events are said to be independent if the probability of occurrence of either of them is not affected by the occurrence or non occurrence of the other. On the other hand, if the occurrence of one event affects the probability of occurrence of the other, then the second event is said to be dependent on the first.

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Illustrations 1:
An unbiased dice is thrown. What is the probability of i. getting a six ii. getting either five or six

Solution:
In a single throw of dice, there are six possible outcomes i.e. 1,2,3,4,5,6. Thus n(S) = 6 i. getting a six Here n(E) = 1 Therefore required probability: ii. getting either five or six Here n(E) = 2 Therefore required probability:

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Illustrations 2:
In a simultaneous throw of two die, find the probability of getting a total of 6.

Solution:
In a simultaneous throw of two die, we have 6 * 6 i.e. 36 possible outcomes. Thus n(S) = 36 and E = { (1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2), (5,1)} i.e. n (E) = 5 Therefore required probability:

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THEOREMS OF PROBABILITY:
Addition Theorem (OR Theorem) Multiplication Theorem (AND Theorem)

Addition Theorem:
Case 1: When events are mutually exclusive:
It state that if two events A & B are mutually exclusive then the probability of occurrence of either A or B is the sum of the individual probability of A & B. Symbolically P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)

Case 2: When events are NOT mutually exclusive:


It states that if two events A & B are not mutually exclusive, then probability of the occurrence of either A or B is the sum of the individual probability of A & B minus the probability of occurrence of both A and B. Symbolically P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)

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Conditional Probability:
The probability of occurrence of event A, given that the event B has already occurred is called conditional probability of occurrence of A on the condition that B has already occurred. It is denoted by P(A/B). If A and B are independent events, then P(A/B) = P(A).

Multiplication Theorem:
The probability of simultaneous occurrence of two events A & B is the product of probability of A and the conditional probability of B when A has already occurred or vice versa. Symbolically P(A B) = P(A). P(B/A), If P(A) 0 P(A B) = P(B). P(A/B), If P(B) 0 It is noted that in case of independent events: P(A B) = P(A). P(B)

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