The Concept of Risk
1.
Basic problem with which insurance deals
2.
Insurance theorists have not been able to
agree on a definition
1-1
Common Elements in Definitions of Risk
1.
Indeterminancy - at least two possible
outcomes
2.
Adversity - at least one of the outcomes is
undesirable
1-2
The Texts Definition of Risk
Risk is a condition in which there is a
possibility of an adverse deviation from a
desired outcome that is expected or hoped for.
1. Risk not subjective - a state of the real
world
2. Risk can exist whether or not it is
perceived
3. Risk can be imagined where possibility of
loss does not exist
1-3
Uncertainty and its Relationship to Risk
1. The most widely held meaning of uncertainty
refers to a state of mind characterized by a
lack of knowledge or doubt about the future.
2. It is contrasted with certainty, as in
I am certain I will get an A in this course.
I am uncertain what grade I will get.
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The Degree of Risk
1.
What is more risk or less risk?
2.
Varies with the probability of deviation
from what is expected in case of
aggregate data
from what is hoped for (no loss) in case
of individual
1-5
Risk Distinguished From Peril and Hazard
Peril:
the cause of loss
Hazard:
a condition that creates or
increases the chance of loss
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Classifications of Hazards
Physical
Moral
Morale
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Classifications of Risk
1.
Financial and non-financial
2.
Static and dynamic
3.
Fundamental and particular
4.
Pure and speculative
1-8
Static and Dynamic Risks
1.
Dynamic risks result from changes in the
economy (e.g., changes in price levels,
consumer taste, income, and output).
benefit society in the long run, by
adjusting misallocations of resources
2. Static risks would exist even in the absence
of economic change (from perils of nature
or human dishonesty).
not a source of gain to society
1-9
Fundamental and Particular Risks
1.
Fundamental risks are impersonal in origin
and consequences. They are societal risks.
2.
It is held that society (rather than the
individual) should deal with them.
Particular risks involve losses that arise out
of individual events and are felt by
individuals rather than the entire group.
Particular risks are considered the
individuals own responsibility that are
properly addressed by the individual.
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Pure and Speculative Risks
1.
Speculative risks involve the possibility of
loss or gain. They are voluntarily accepted
because of the possibility of gain.
2.
Pure risks involve the possibility of loss or
no loss only.
3.
In general, insurance deals with pure risks
only.
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Classifications of Pure Risk
1.
Personal risks
2.
Property risks
3.
Liability risks
4.
Risks arising out of failure of others
1-12
The Burden of Risk
1.
Some losses will occur
2.
The cost of accumulated reserves
3.
Deterrent effect on capital accumulation
4.
Higher cost of capital
5.
Feeling of frustration and mental unrest
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Methods of Dealing With Risk
1. Avoidance
2. Reduction
3. Retention
4. Transfer
5. Sharing
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