The Binomial,
Poisson, and
Normal
Distributions
Probability distributions
We use probability 100
distributions 80
because they work 60
–they fit lots of 40
data in real world
20 Std. Dev = 14.76
Mean = 35.3
0 N = 713.00
Ht (cm) 1996
Height (cm) of Hypericum
cumulicola at Archbold
Biological Station
Random variable
The mathematical rule (or function)
that assigns a given numerical value
to each possible outcome of an
experiment in the sample space of
interest.
Random variables
Discrete random variables
Continuous random variables
The Binomial Distribution
Bernoulli Random Variables
Imagine a simple trial with only two possible
outcomes
Success (S)
Failure (F)
Examples
Toss of a coin (heads or tails) Jacob Bernoulli (1654-
1705)
Sex of a newborn (male or female)
Survival of an organism in a region (live or die)
The Binomial Distribution
Overview
Suppose that the probability of success is p
What is the probability of failure?
q = 1 – p
Examples
Toss of a coin (S = head): p = 0.5 q = 0.5
Roll of a die (S = 1): p = 0.1667 q = 0.8333
Fertility of a chicken egg (S = fertile): p = 0.8
q = 0.2
The Binomial Distribution
Overview
Imagine that a trial is repeated n times
Examples
A coin is tossed 5 times
A die is rolled 25 times
50 chicken eggs are examined
Assume p remains constant from trial to trial and
that the trials are statistically independent of
each other
The Binomial Distribution
Overview
What is the probability of obtaining x successes
in n trials?
Example
What is the probability of obtaining 2 heads
from a coin that was tossed 5 times?
P(HHTTT) = (1/2)5 = 1/32
The Binomial Distribution
Overview
But there are more possibilities:
HHTTT HTHTT HTTHT HTTTH
THHTT THTHT THTTH
TTHHT TTHTH
TTTHH
P(2 heads) = 10 × 1/32 = 10/32
The Binomial Distribution
Overview
In general, if trials result in a series of success
and failures,
FFSFFFFSFSFSSFFFFFSF…
Then the probability of x successes in that order
is
P(x) = q q p q
= px qn – x
The Binomial Distribution
Overview
However, if order is not important, then
P(x) = n! px qn – x
x!(n – x)!
n!
where is the number of ways to
x!(n
obtain – x)!
x successes
in n trials, and i! = i (i – 1) (i – 2) … 2 1
The Binomial Distribution
Overview
The Poisson Distribution
Overview
When there is a large number
of trials, but a small probability
of success, binomial calculation
becomes impractical
Example: Number of deaths
from horse kicks in the Army
in different years
Simeon D. Poisson
The mean number of successes
(1781-1840)
from n trials is µ = np
Example: 64 deaths in 20
years from thousands of
soldiers
The Poisson Distribution
Overview
If we substitute µ/n for p, and let n tend to
infinity, the binomial distribution becomes the
Poisson distribution:
e -µµx
P(x) =
x!
The Poisson Distribution
Overview
Poisson distribution is applied where random
events in space or time are expected to occur
Deviation from Poisson distribution may indicate
some degree of non-randomness in the events
under study
Investigation of cause may be of interest
Note that the specified region could take many forms.
For instance, it could be a length, an area, a volume, a
period of time, etc.
Poisson Distribution Example
The average number of homes sold by the
Acme Realty company is 2 homes per day.
What is the probability that exactly 3
homes will be sold tomorrow?
Solution: This is a Poisson experiment in which we
know the following:
μ = 2; since 2 homes are sold per day, on average.
x = 3; since we want to find the likelihood that 3 homes
will be sold tomorrow.
e = 2.71828; since e is a constant equal to
approximately 2.71828.
We plug these values into the Poisson formula as
follows:
P(x; μ) = (e^-μ) (μ^x) / x!
P(3; 2) = (2.71828^-2) (2^3) / 3!
P(3; 2) = (0.13534) (8) / 6
P(3; 2) = 0.180
Thus, the probability of selling 3 homes tomorrow is
0.180 .
Cumulative Poisson
Probability
A cumulative Poisson probability refers to
the probability that the Poisson random
variable is greater than some specified
lower limit and less than some specified
upper limit.
Cumulative Poisson Example
Suppose the average number of lions seen on a
1-day safari is 5. What is the probability that
tourists will see fewer than four lions on the next
1-day safari?
Solution: This is a Poisson experiment in which we know
the following:
μ = 5; since 5 lions are seen per safari, on average.
x = 0, 1, 2, or 3; since we want to find the likelihood that
tourists will see fewer than 4 lions; that is, we want the
probability that they will see 0, 1, 2, or 3 lions.
e = 2.71828; since e is a constant equal to approximately
2.71828.
To solve this problem, we need to find the probability that tourists will
see 0, 1, 2, or 3 lions. Thus, we need to calculate the sum of four
probabilities: P(0; 5) + P(1; 5) + P(2; 5) + P(3; 5). To compute this sum,
we use the Poisson formula:
P(x < 3, 5) = P(0; 5) + P(1; 5) + P(2; 5) + P(3; 5)
P(x < 3, 5) = [ (e-5)(50) / 0! ] + [ (e-5)(51) / 1! ] + [ (e-5)(52) / 2! ] + [ (e-5)(53) /
3! ]
P(x < 3, 5) = [ (0.006738)(1) / 1 ] + [ (0.006738)(5) / 1 ] + [ (0.006738)
(25) / 2 ] + [ (0.006738)(125) / 6 ]
P(x < 3, 5) = [ 0.0067 ] + [ 0.03369 ] + [ 0.084224 ] + [ 0.140375 ]
P(x < 3, 5) = 0.2650
Thus, the probability of seeing at no more than 3 lions is 0.2650.
The Poisson Distribution
Emission of -particles
Random events
Regular events
The Poisson Distribution
The Normal Distribution
The normal distribution refers to a
family of continuous probability
distributions described by the normal
equation.
The Normal Distribution
Overview
Discovered in 1733 by de Moivre as an approximation
to the binomial distribution when the number of trails
is large
Abraham de
Derived in 1809 by Gauss Moivre (1667-
1754)
Importance lies in the Central Limit Theorem, which
states that the sum of a large number of independent
random variables (binomial, Poisson, etc.) will
approximate a normal distribution
Example: Human height is determined by a large
number of factors, both genetic and
environmental, which are additive in their effects.
Thus, it follows a normal distribution.
Karl F.
Gauss
(1777-
The Normal Distribution
Overview
A continuous random variable is said to be normally
distributed with mean and variance 2 if its
probability density function is
1
f (x) 2e(x2 2
= ) /2
f(x) is not the same as P(x)
P(x) would be 0 for every x because the normal
distribution is continuousx2
x
However, P(x1 < X ≤ x2) =
1
f(x)dx
The Normal Distribution
Overview
The Normal Distribution
Overview
The Normal Distribution
Overview
Mean changes Variance changes
The Normal Distribution
Length of Fish
A sample of rock cod in Monterey Bay suggests that
the mean length of these fish is = 30 in. and 2 = 4 in.
Assume that the length of rock cod is a normal random
variable
If we catch one of these fish in Monterey Bay,
What is the probability that it will be at least 31 in.
long?
That it will be no more than 32 in. long?
That its length will be between 26 and 29 inches?
The Normal Distribution
Length of Fish
What is the probability that it will be at least 31
in. long?
The Normal Distribution
Length of Fish
That it will be no more than 32 in. long?
The Normal Distribution
Length of Fish
That its length will be between 26 and 29 inches?
Standard Normal
Distribution
μ=0 and σ2=1
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4
Useful properties of the
normal distribution
1. The normal distribution has
useful properties:
Can be added E(X+Y)= E(X)
+E(Y) and σ2(X+Y)= σ2(X)+
σ2(Y)
Can be transformed with shift
and change of scale operations
Problem 1
An average light bulb manufactured
by the Acme Corporation lasts 300
days with a standard deviation of 50
days. Assuming that bulb life is
normally distributed, what is the
probability that an Acme light bulb
will last at most 365 days?
Solution: Given a mean score of 300 days and a
standard deviation of 50 days, we want to find the
cumulative probability that bulb life is less than or
equal to 365 days. Thus, we know the following:
The value of the normal random variable is 365 days.
The mean is equal to 300 days.
The standard deviation is equal to 50 days.
We enter these values into the Normal Distribution
Calculator and compute the cumulative probability.
The answer is: P( X < 365) = 0.90. Hence, there is a
90% chance that a light bulb will burn out within 365
days.
Problem 2
Suppose scores on an IQ test are
normally distributed. If the test has
a mean of 100 and a standard
deviation of 10, what is the
probability that a person who takes
the test will score between 90 and
110?
Solution: Here, we want to know the probability that the test score falls between 90
and 110. The "trick" to solving this problem is to realize the following:
P( 90 < X < 110 ) = P( X < 110 ) - P( X < 90 )
We use the Normal Distribution Calculator to compute both probabilities on the right
side of the above equation.
To compute P( X < 110 ), we enter the following inputs into the calculator: The value of
the normal random variable is 110, the mean is 100, and the standard deviation is 10.
We find that P( X < 110 ) is 0.84.
To compute P( X < 90 ), we enter the following inputs into the calculator: The value of
the normal random variable is 90, the mean is 100, and the standard deviation is 10.
We find that P( X < 90 ) is 0.16.
We use these findings to compute our final answer as follows:
P( 90 < X < 110 ) = P( X < 110 ) - P( X < 90 )
P( 90 < X < 110 ) = 0.84 - 0.16
P( 90 < X < 110 ) = 0.68
Thus, about 68% of the test scores will fall between 90 and 110.
Consider two random variables
X and Y
Let X~N(μ,σ) and let Y=aX+b where a and b
area constants
Change of scale is the operation of
multiplying X by a constant “a” because one
unit of X becomes “a” units of Y.
Shift is the operation of adding a constant “ b”
to X because we simply move our random
variable X “b” units along the x-axis.
If X is a normal random variable, then the
new random variable Y created by this
operations on X is also a random normal
variable
For X~N(μ,σ) and Y=aX+b
E(Y) =aμ+b
σ2(Y)=a2 σ2
A special case of a change of scale
and shift operation in which a = 1/σ
and b =-1(μ/σ)
Y=(1/σ)X-μ/σ
Y=(X-μ)/σ gives
E(Y)=0 and σ2(Y) =1
The Central Limit
Theorem
That Standardizing any random variable
that itself is a sum or average of a set of
independent random variables results in
a new random variable that is nearly the
same as a standard normal one.
The only caveats are that the sample
size must be large enough and that the
observations themselves must be
independent and all drawn from a
distribution with common expectation
and variance.
Exercise
Location of
the
measuremen
t
