Chapter 8

Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

PowerPoint Lecture Slides
Essentials of Statistics for the
Behavioral Sciences
Eighth Edition
by Frederick J. Gravetter and Larry B. Wallnau
 Chapter 8 Learning Outcomes
1 • Understand logic of hypothesis testing

2 • State hypotheses and locate critical region(s)

3 • Conduct z-test and make decision

4 • Define and differentiate Type I and Type II errors

5 • Understand effect size and compute Cohen’s d

6 • Make directional hypotheses and conduct one-tailed test

 Tools You Will Need
• z-scores (Chapter 5)
• Distribution of sample means (Chapter 7)
– Expected value
– Standard error
– Probability and sample means
 8.1 Hypothesis Testing Logic
• A hypothesis test is an inferential procedure that
uses sample data to evaluate the credibility of a
hypothesis about a population
• Here we’ll apply what we know about z-scores and
probability to inform our inferences (i.e., how likely is
it that a given sample came from a population?)
• We’ll also set criteria for making decisions about
whether a sample represents a population or not
 Logic of Hypothesis Test
• State a hypothesis about a population
• Predict the expected characteristics of the
sample based on the hypothesis
• Obtain a random sample from the population
• Compare the obtained sample data with the
prediction made from the hypothesis
– If consistent, hypothesis is reasonable
– If discrepant, hypothesis is rejected
 Figure 8.1
Basic Experimental Design
Figure 8.2 Unknown Population in
Basic Experimental Design
 Four Steps in Hypothesis Testing

Step 1: State the hypotheses

Step 2: Set the criteria for a decision
Step 3: Collect data; compute sample statistics
Step 4: Make a decision
 Step 1: State Hypotheses
• Null hypothesis (H0) states that, in the general
population, there is no change, no difference,
or is no relationship

• Alternative hypothesis (H1) states that there is

a change, a difference, or there is a
relationship in the general population
 Step 2: Set the Decision Criterion
• Distribution of sample outcomes is divided
– Those likely if H0 is true
– Those “very unlikely” if H0 is true
• Alpha level, or significance level, is a probability
value used to define “very unlikely” outcomes
• Critical region(s) consist of the extreme sample
outcomes that are “very unlikely”
• Boundaries of critical region(s) are determined by
the probability set by the alpha level
Figure 8.3 Note “Unlikely” Parts of
Distribution of Sample Means
 Figure 8.4
Critical region(s) for α = .05
 Learning Check
• A sports coach is investigating the impact of a
new training method. In words, what would
the null hypothesis say?
• The new training program produces different
A results from the existing one
• The new training program produces results
B about like the existing one
• The new training program produces better
C results than the existing one
• There is no way to predict the results of the
D new training program
 Learning Check - Answer
• A sports coach is investigating the impact of a
new training method. In words, what would
the null hypothesis say?
• The new training program produces different
A results from the existing one
• The new training program produces results
B about like the existing one
• The new training program produces better
C results than the existing one
• There is no way to predict the results of the
D new training program
 Learning Check
• Decide if each of the following statements
is True or False.

• If the alpha level is decreased, the size

T/F of the critical region decreases

T/F • The critical region defines unlikely

values if the null hypothesis is true
 Learning Check - Answers

• Alpha is the proportion of the area

True in the critical region(s)

True • This is the definition of “unlikely”

 Step 3: Collect Data (and…)

• Data always collected after hypotheses stated

• Data always collected after establishing
decision criteria
• This sequence assures objectivity
 Step 3: (continued)…
Compute Sample Statistics
• Compute a sample statistic (z-score) to show
the exact position of the sample

M 
z
M

• In words, z is the difference between the

observed sample mean and the hypothesized
population mean divided by the standard
error of the mean
 Step 4: Make a decision

• If sample statistic (z) is located in the critical

region, the null hypothesis is rejected

• If the sample statistic (z) is not located in the

critical region, the researcher fails to reject the
null hypothesis
 Jury Trial:
Hypothesis Testing Analogy
• Trial begins with the null hypothesis “not guilty”
(defendant’s innocent plea)
• Police and prosecutor gather evidence (data)
relevant to the validity of the innocent plea
• With sufficient evidence against, jury rejects null
hypothesis innocence claim to conclude “guilty”
• With insufficient evidence against, jury fails to
convict, i.e., fails to reject the “not guilty” claim
(but does not conclude defendant is innocent)
 Learning Check
• Decide if each of the following statements
is True or False.

• When the z-score is quite

T/F extreme, it shows the null
hypothesis is true
• A decision to retain the null
T/F hypothesis means you proved that
the treatment has no effect
 Learning Check - Answer

• An extreme z-score is in the critical

False region—very unlikely if H0 is true

• Failing to reject H0 does not prove it

False true; there is just not enough evidence
to reject it
 8.2 Uncertainty and Errors
in Hypothesis Testing
• Hypothesis testing is an inferential process
– Uses limited information from a sample to make a
statistical decision, and then from it a general
conclusion
– Sample data used to make the statistical decision
allows us to make an inference and draw a
conclusion about a population

• Errors are possible

 Type I Errors
• Researcher rejects a null hypothesis that is
actually true
• Researcher concludes that a treatment has an
effect when it has none
• Alpha level is the probability that a test will
lead to a Type I error
 Type II Errors

• Researcher fails to reject a null hypothesis

that is really false
• Researcher has failed to detect a real
treatment effect
• Type II error probability is not easily identified
 Table 8.1

Actual Situation

No Effect = Effect Exists =

H0 True H0 False
Type I error
Reject H0 Decision correct
Researcher’s (α)
Decision Type II error
Fail to reject H0 Decision correct
(β)
 Figure 8.5 Location of
Critical Region Boundaries
 Learning Check
• Decide if each of the following statements
is True or False.

• A Type I error is like convicting an

T/F innocent person in a jury trial

• A Type II error is like convicting a

T/F guilty person in a jury trial
 Learning Check - Answer

• Innocence is the “null hypothesis”

True for a jury trial; conviction is like
rejecting that hypothesis
• Convicting a guilty person is not an
False error; but acquitting a guilty
person would be like Type II error
 8.3 Hypothesis Testing Summary
• Step 1: State hypotheses and select alpha level
• Step 2: Locate the critical region
• Step 3: Collect data; compute the test statistic
• Step 4: Make a probability-based decision
about H0: Reject H0 if the test statistic is
unlikely when H0 is true—called a “significant”
or “statistically significant” result
 In the Literature
• A result is significant or statistically significant
if it is very unlikely to occur when the null
hypothesis is true; conclusion: reject H0
• In APA format
– Report that you found a significant effect
– Report value of test statistic
– Report the p-value of your test statistic
 Figure 8.6
Critical Region for Standard Test
 8.3 Assumptions for
Hypothesis Tests with z-Scores

• Random sampling
• Independent Observation
• Value of σ is not changed by the treatment
• Normally distributed sampling distribution
 Factors that Influence the
Outcome of a Hypothesis Test
• Size of difference between sample mean and
original population mean
– Larger discrepancies  larger z-scores
• Variability of the scores
– More variability  larger standard error
• Number of scores in the sample
– Larger n  smaller standard error
 Learning Check
• A researcher uses a hypothesis test to evaluate
H0: µ = 80. Which combination of factors is most
likely to result in rejecting the null hypothesis?

A • σ = 5 and n = 25
B • σ = 5 and n = 50
C • σ = 10 and n = 25
D • σ = 10 and n = 50
 Learning Check - Answer
• A researcher uses a hypothesis test to evaluate
H0: µ = 80. Which combination of factors is most
likely to result in rejecting the null hypothesis?

A • σ = 5 and n = 25
B • σ = 5 and n = 50
C • σ = 10 and n = 25
D • σ = 10 and n = 50
 Learning Check
• Decide if each of the following statements
is True or False.

• An effect that exists is more likely

T/F to be detected if n is large

• An effect that exists is less likely to

T/F be detected if σ is large
 Learning Check - Answers

• A larger sample produces a

True smaller standard error and larger z

• A larger standard deviation

True increases the standard error and
produces a smaller z
 8.4 Directional Hypothesis Tests

• The standard hypothesis testing procedure is

called a two-tailed (non-directional) test
because the critical region involves both tails
to determine if the treatment increases or
decreases the target behavior
• However, sometimes the researcher has a
specific prediction about the direction of the
treatment
 8.4 Directional Hypothesis Tests
(Continued)
• When a specific direction of the treatment
effect can be predicted, it can be incorporated
into the hypotheses
• In a directional (one-tailed) hypothesis test,
the researcher specifies either an increase or
a decrease in the population mean as a
consequence of the treatment
 Figure 8.7 Example 8.3
Critical Region (Directional)
 One-tailed and Two-tailed Tests
Compared
• One-tailed test allows rejecting H0 with
relatively small difference provided the
difference is in the predicted direction
• Two-tailed test requires relatively large
difference regardless of the direction of the
difference
• In general two-tailed tests should be used
unless there is a strong justification for a
directional prediction
 Learning Check
• A researcher is predicting that a treatment will
decrease scores. If this treatment is evaluated
using a directional hypothesis test, then the
critical region for the test.
• would be entirely in the right-hand tail of
A the distribution
• would be entirely in the left-hand tail of
B the distribution
• would be divided equally between the two tails
C of the distribution
• cannot answer without knowing the value of
D the alpha level
 Learning Check - Answer
• A researcher is predicting that a treatment will
decrease scores. If this treatment is evaluated
using a directional hypothesis test, then the
critical region for the test.
• would be entirely in the right-hand tail of
A the distribution
• would be entirely in the left-hand tail of
B the distribution
• would be divided equally between the two tails
C of the distribution
• cannot answer without knowing the value of
D the alpha level
 8.5 Hypothesis Testing Concerns:
Measuring Effect Size
• With a large n, small effects (or differences)
can be statistically significant
• Effect size measures the absolute magnitude
of a treatment effect, independent of sample
size
• Cohen’s d measures effect size simply and
directly in a standardized way
 Cohen’s d : Measure of Effect Size

mean difference treatment   no treatment

Cohen' s d  
standard deviation 

Magnitude of d Evaluation of Effect Size

d = 0.2 Small effect
d = 0.5 Medium effect
d = 0.8 Large effect
Figure 8.8 When is a 15-point
Difference a “Large” Effect?
 Learning Check
• Decide if each of the following statements
is True or False.

• Increasing the sample size will also

T/F increase the effect size

• Larger differences between the

T/F sample and population mean
increase effect size
 Learning Check -Answers

• Sample size does not affect

False Cohen’s d

• The mean difference is in the

True numerator of Cohen’s d
 8.6 Statistical Power
• The power of a test is the probability that the
test will correctly reject a false null hypothesis
– It will detect a treatment effect if one exists
– Power = 1 – β [where β = probability of a Type II
error]
• Power usually estimated before starting study
– Requires several assumptions about factors that
influence power
 Figure 8.9
Measuring Statistical Power
 Influences on Power
• Increased Power
– As effect size increases, power also increases
– Larger sample sizes produce greater power
– Using a one-tailed (directional) test increases power
(relative to a two-tailed test)
• Decreased Power
– Reducing the alpha level (making the test more
stringent) reduces power
– Using two-tailed (non-directional) test decreases
power (relative to a one-tailed test)
 Figure 8.10
Sample Size Affects Power
 Learning Check
• The power of a statistical test is the
probability of _____

A • rejecting a true null hypothesis

B • supporting true null hypothesis
C • rejecting a false null hypothesis
D • supporting a false null hypothesis
 Learning Check - Answer
• The power of a statistical test is the
probability of _____

A • rejecting a true null hypothesis

B • supporting true null hypothesis
C • rejecting a false null hypothesis
D • supporting a false null hypothesis
 Learning Check
• Decide if each of the following statements
is True or False.

• Cohen’s d is used because alone, a

T/F hypothesis test does not measure
the size of the treatment effect
• Lowering the alpha level from .05
T/F to .01 will increase the power of a
statistical test
 Answer

• Differences might be significant

True but not of substantial size

• It is less likely that H0 will be

False rejected with a small alpha
 Equations?

Concepts
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Any
Questions
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