Rough justice

Henry has been caught stealing cattle, and is brought into town for justice.
The judge is his ex-wife Gretchen, who wants to show him some sympathy,
but the law clearly calls for two shots to be taken at Henry from close range.
To make things a little better for Henry, Gretchen tells him she will
place two bullets into a six-chambered revolver in successive order.
She will spin the chamber, close it, and take one shot.
If Henry is still alive, she will then either take another
shot, or spin the chamber again before shooting.
Henry is a bit incredulous that his own ex-wife would carry out the
punishment, and a bit sad that she was always such a rule follower.
He steels himself as Gretchen loads the chambers, spins
the revolver, and pulls the trigger. Whew! It was blank.
Then Gretchen asks, "Do you want me to pull the trigger again, or
should I spin the chamber a second time before pulling the trigger?"

What should Henry choose?

If Gretchen spins the chamber again before firing

The probability that she shoots Henry would be 2 6 , or 13 ,

since there are still two bullets in the six possible chambers.

If Gretchen fires again without spinning the chamber

We know that the first chamber Gretchen
fired was one of the four empty chambers.
Since the bullets were placed in consecutive order:
three of the empty chambers are followed by an empty chamber
one of the empty chambers is followed by a bullet
Hence the probability that a bullet will be fired is ¼

Odds of ¼ are better than odds of 1/3 in this situation!

So Henry should have Gretchen pull the trigger again without spinning!
 Tree diagrams
Eg Johnny has a 0.4 chance of scoring from a free-kick and a 0.7 chance of
scoring from a penalty

Free-kick Penalty The branches show the possible

outcomes and their probabilities
0.7 Score
Any chain of branches from the
Score
0.4 beginning to the end represents
0.3 Miss a combination of outcomes

Scores both

Scores free-kick but misses penalty

0.6 0.7 Score
Miss Misses free-kick but scores penalty

0.3 Miss
Misses both
 Finding probabilities with tree diagrams
Eg a coin is biased so that the probability of throwing heads each time is 2/3

To find the probability of a combination of outcomes,

multiply the probabilities along the relevant branches

1st throw 2nd throw P(Two heads in a row)  23  23  49

2
3 H
P(Heads followed by tails)  2 3  13  2 9
H
2
3 T
1
3 P(Tails followed by heads)  1
3  23  29

P(Two tails in a row)  1

3  13  1
9
2
1 3 H
3
T P(one head, one tail)  29  29  49
1 T
3 If more than one combination gives the
desired outcome, add their probabilities
 Non-replacement
Eg a bag contains 3 red and 7 blue balls.
A ball is picked, not replaced, and another picked.
Complete the tree diagram There are 10 balls to choose
from when picking the 1st ball

If the object is not replaced, this affects

1st pick 2nd pick the probabilities on the 2nd pick
2 If a red ball was picked first,
9 Red
there are only 2 red balls left
Red
3 If a red ball was picked first,
10 7 Blue
9 there are still 7 blue balls left

3 If a blue ball was picked first,

7 9 Red
10 there are still 3 red balls left
Blue
If a blue ball was picked first,
6 Blue
9 there are only 6 blue balls left
 Non-replacement
Eg a bag contains 3 red and 7 blue balls.
A ball is picked, not replaced, and another picked.
Find the probability that:
To find the probability of a combination
a) 2 red balls are picked
of outcomes, multiply the probabilities
b) 1 of each colour is picked
along the relevant branches

1st pick 2nd pick

P(both red)  3 10  2 9  6 90  1
15
2
9 Red
Red
3
10 7
9
Blue P(one of each)  3 10  7 9  7 10  3 9
 2190  2190
7
3
9 Red
 42 90  7 15
10
Blue If more than one combination gives the
desired outcome, add their probabilities
6 Blue
9
Now try Ex5E, Q1-2
 Conditional probability
For 2 events A and B:
P(A  B)
P(A / B)  ‘The probability that A occurs, given that B has occurred’
P(B)
 P(A  B)  P(A/B)  P(B) ‘The probability that A and B occur’

The statement A/B is also known as a conditional probability

Conditional probability may seem new, but you have in fact been using this in the GCSE:
Eg from previously P(R 2 /R1 ) This is not the same as P(R2)
P(R1 ) 2
9 Red P(R 2  R1 )  P(R 2 /R1 )  P(R1 )
3 Red
10 Rearranging this rule:
7 Blue
9
P(R 2  R1 )
 P(R 2 /R1 )  As above
3 P(R1 )
7 9 Red
10
Blue
6 Blue
9
 Why consider conditional probabilities?
Fabio Capello is considering some new tactics for the England team.
He wants to know how good England are at defending a lead.
Based on this evidence he can decide whether to change the current tactics
in future games where England are leading, or stick with the current system.

What data does he need? Looking at the probability England just win is not useful
Looking at the probability England just take the lead is not useful
He needs to know the probability that England win, given that they are in the lead.

Suppose he has the following data for P(A  B)

games since he took over as manager: P(A / B) 
P(B)
Took the Held the
Games 16
lead lead P(win) 4
P(win/take lead)   30

P(take lead) 20
5
30 20 16 30

So the current system is working well, as England hold a lead 80% of the time

Conditional probabilities help you understand if events are connected or not

WB4 A bag contains 9 blue balls and 3 red balls. A ball is selected at random from
the bag and its colour is recorded. The ball is not replaced. A second ball is
selected at random and its colour is recorded.
(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information.
Find the probability that
(b) the second ball selected is red,
(c) both balls selected are red, given that the second ball selected is red.

1st pick 2nd pick P(second is red) = P(BR) + P(RR)

9 3 3 2 1
8     
11 Blue 12 11 12 11 4
Blue
9 3 2 1
12 3 Red P(both red)   
11 12 11 22
P(both red)
P(both red/second red) 
P(second red)
9 1
3 11 Blue 2
12  22

Red P(A  B) 1
11
P(A / B)  4
2 Red P(B)
11 Now try Ex5E, Q3-4
 Union of events
The probability that A or B occur is written P(A  B)

Eg I roll a dice. What is the probability that either the roll is even or prime?

Evens: 2, 4 , 6 Primes: 2, 3,5 Even or prime: 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6

5
 P(even or prime) 
6
union of A and B intersection of A and B

It is logical from this example that P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B) - P(A  B)

Eg above 3 3 3 1 5
P(even)  P(even or prime)    
6 6 6 6 6
3
P(prime) 
6
This may seem a long-way round, but
Even and prime: 2
that’s just the example I have picked
1 so you can understand the rule!
 P(even and prime) 
6
 Union of events
Q1. P(A)  2
3 , P(B)  3
5 and P(A  B)  21 . Find P(A  B)

P(A  B)  32  35  21  23 P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B) - P(A  B)

30

Q2. P(A)  1
2 , P(B)  3
4 and P(A  B)  109 . Find P(A  B)

P(A  B)  21  34  109  7
20 P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B) - P(A  B)

 P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B) - P(A  B)

Q3. P(A)  3
7 , P(B)  1
3 and P(A / B)  5
8 . Find P(A  B)

P(A  B)  58  31  5
24 P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B) - P(A  B)

P(A  B)  37  31  245  31 P(A  B)

56 P(A / B)   P(A  B)  P(A/B)  P(B)
P(B)
 Independent events
If A and B are independent
Events are independent if one occurring has no
effect on the probability of the other occurring. P(A / B)  P(A)

Putting this into the rule P(A  B)  P(A/B)  P(B)  P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B)

WB5 Two events A and B are independent, such that P(A)  1

3 and P(B)  1
4

Find: a) P(A  B) b) P(A / B) c) P(A  B)

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
P(A  B)    P(A / B)  P(A)  P(A  B)    
3 4 12 3 3 4 12 2

Eg P(A)  41 , P(B)  1
5
and P(A  B)  2
5 . Show that A and B are independent

P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B) - P(A  B) P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B)  independent

2 1 1
   - P(A  B) 1 1 1
5 4 5   Therefore independent
1 1 1 4 5 20
 P(A  B)   
4 5 20
 Independence
Q1. P(A)  1
3 , P(B)  1
2 and P(A  B)  51 . Explain why A and B are not independent

P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B) P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B)  independent

1
5  21  31

Q2. P(A)  1
3 , P(B)  3
4 and P(A / B)  1
3 . Explain whether A and B are independent

P(A / B)  P(A)  independent

Q3. P(A)  3
7 , P(B)  1
3 and A and B are independent. Find P(A  B) .

P(A  B)  37  31  1 independent  P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B)

7

P(A  B)  37  31  71  13
21
 Mutually exclusive events

Events are mutually exclusive if they cannot both happen.

If A and B are mutually exclusive P(A  B)  0

Eg if P(A)  x and P(B)  y , write an expression for P(A  B) if:

i) A and B are independent  P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B)  xy

ii) A and B are mutually exclusive  P(A  B)  0

Complementary probability
P(A’) is the probability that event A does not occur. P(A' )  1- P(A)
2 3
Eg P(A) = 5 . What is P(A’)? 5
 Summary so far
There are rules connecting three key ideas, each with two useful forms:

Union and intersection of events

P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B) - P(A  B)  P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B) - P(A  B)

Conditional probability ‘A given B’

P(A  B)
P(A / B)   P(A  B)  P(A/B)  P(B)
P(B)

Tests for independence

If A and B are independent P(A / B)  P(A) or P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B)

WBX The bag P contains 6 balls of which 3 are red and 3 are yellow.
The bag Q contains 7 balls of which 4 are red and 3 are yellow.
A ball is drawn at random from bag P and placed in bag Q.
A second ball is drawn at random from bag P and placed in bag Q.
A third ball is then drawn at random from the 9 balls in bag Q.
a) Complete the tree diagram shown below.
Q pick
P 2nd pick
If 2 red have been drawn, P 1st pick 6 Red
9
Q contains 6 red Red 3
2
5 9 Yellow
Red
3 5
1
5 9
Red
2 Yellow
4
9 Yellow
If 1 yellow have been drawn,
P contains 2 yellow 5
1
Red
9
2
Red
3 4
5 9 Yellow
Yellow
2 4
9
Red
If 2 yellow have been drawn, 5 Yellow
5
Q contains 5 yellow 9 Yellow
 The event A occurs when the 2 balls drawn from bag P are of the same colour.
The event B occurs when the ball drawn from bag Q is red.
b) Find P(A)  P(RRR)  P(RRY)  P(YYR)  P(YYY) 6 R A B
9
 P(RR)  P(YY)  21  52  21  52  52 R 3
2
5 5
9 Y A
c) Show that P(B)  R
9 3 5
R B
1 5 9
 P(RRR)  P(RYR)  P(YRR)  P(YYR) Y
2 4
 259  259  259  259
1 2 6 1 3 5 1 3 5 1 2 4
9 Y
 12
90  90  90  90 
15 15 8 50
90  5
9
5
R B
1 9
2 R
d) Show that P(A  B)  2 3 4
Y
9 5 9
Y
P(A  B)  P(RRR)  P(YYR)  12
90
 908  20
90  2
9
2 4
R A B
5 9
Y
e) Hence find P(A  B)  5  9  9  15
2 5 2 11 5
9 Y A
P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B) - P(A  B)
f) Given that all three balls drawn are the same colour, find the probability that
they are all red.
12
P(all red) P(RRR) 6
P(all red/all same)    90

P(all same) P(RRR)  P(YYY) 12
90  10
90 11
Venn Diagrams
 A B
A B
Venn Diagrams
A B A B
A

Intersection of A & B Union of A & B

B A' A'  B'

A B A B A B

A  B' A'  B A'B'

A B A B A B
 1 1 1
WB6 The events A and B are such that P(A)  , P(B)  and P(A  B) 
2 3 4
(a) Using the space below, represent these probabilities in a Venn diagram.

Hence, or otherwise, find (b) P(A  B) (c) P(A / B' )

P(A  B' )
 P(A)  P(A  B) P(A'B)
1 1 1 A B
    P(B)  P(A  B)
2 4 4
1 1 1 1 1 1
  
4 4 12 3 4 12
5
12
P(A'B' )
 1 P(A  B) 1
P(A  B) 
1 1 1  5 4
 1      P(A  B)
 4 4 12  12 P(A / B) 
P(B)

7 P(A  B' ) 1
3
b) P(A  B)  1- P(A'B' )  c) P(A / B' )   1 5 
4

12 P(B' ) 4  12 8
 2 1 4
WB7 The events A and B are such that P(A)  , P(B)  and P(A / B' ) 
5 2 5
(a) Find (i) P(A  B' ) (ii) P(A  B) (iii) P(A  B) (iv) P(A / B)
(b) State, with a reason, whether or not A and B are
(i) mutually exclusive (ii) independent.

Conditional probabilities cannot be represented on a Venn diagram

P(A  B)
If this is all you are given, consider the rule: P(A / B) 
P(B)
P(A  B' ) 4 1 2
ai) P(A / B' )   P(A / B' )  P(B' )  P(A  B' )   
P(B' ) 5 2 5
2 2
ii) P(A  B)  P(A) - P(A  B' )   0
5 5 A B
2 1 9
iii) P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B) - P(A  B)    0 
5 2 10 A  B' A'B
P(A  B) 0
iv) P(A / B)   1 0
P(B) 2

bi) P(A  B)  0 so A and B are mutually exclusive A B Now try:

Ex5C, Q1-3
ii) P(A / B)  P(A) so A and B are not independent Ex5D, Q5-7
Ex5F, Q1-3
 WB8 Articles made on a lathe are subject to three kinds of defect, A, B or C.
A sample of 1000 articles was inspected and the following results were obtained.
31 had a type A defect, 37 had a type B defect, 42 had a type C defect.
11 had both type A and type B defects, 13 had both type B and type C defects,
10 had both type A and type C defects.
6 had all three types of defect.
(a) Draw a Venn diagram to represent these data.

16  5  6  4  25  7  19  82 with faults
A B
Leaving 918 articles with no faults
16 5 19

6
4 7

25
918
C
 Find the probability that a randomly selected article from this sample had
(b) no defects,
(c) no more than one of these defects.
An article selected at random from this sample had only one defect.
(d) Find the probability that it was a type B defect.
Two different articles were selected at random from this sample.
(e) Find the probability that both had type B defects.

918
b)
1000 A B

918  16  19  25 978
c)  16 5 19
1000 1000

6
d) P(type B / 1 defect)
4 7
P(type B  1 defect) 19
19
  1000
16  25 19

P(1 defect) 1000 60
25
37 36 1 918
e)   C
1000 999 750

Now try Ex5G, Q3+9

WBX The bag P contains 6 balls of which 3 are red and 3 are yellow.
The bag Q contains 7 balls of which 4 are red and 3 are yellow.
A ball is drawn at random from bag P and placed in bag Q.
A second ball is drawn at random from bag P and placed in bag Q.
A third ball is then drawn at random from the 9 balls in bag Q.
a) Complete the tree diagram shown below.

Red
Red
2
5 Yellow
Red
3 5
1
5 9
Red
2 Yellow
Yellow
5
1
Red
9
2
Red
Yellow
Yellow
Red
Yellow
Yellow
 The event A occurs when the 2 balls drawn from bag P are of the same colour.
The event B occurs when the ball drawn from bag Q is red.
b) Find P(A)

5
c) Show that P(B) 
9

2
d) Show that P(A  B) 
9

e) Hence find P(A  B)

f) Given that all three balls drawn are the same colour, find the probability that
they are all red.
 Union of events
Q1. P(A)  2
3 , P(B)  3
5 and P(A  B)  21 . Find P(A  B)

Q2. P(A)  1
2 , P(B)  3
4 and P(A  B)  109 . Find P(A  B)

Q3. P(A)  3
7 , P(B)  1
3 and P(A / B)  5
8 . Find P(A  B)
 Independence
Q1. P(A)  1
3 , P(B)  1
2 and P(A  B)  51 . Explain why A and B are not independent

Q2. P(A)  1
3 , P(B)  3
4 and P(A / B)  1
3 . Explain whether A and B are independent

Q3. P(A)  3
7 , P(B)  1
3 and A and B are independent. Find P(A  B) .
 A B
A B
Venn Diagrams
A B A B
A

Intersection of A & B Union of A & B

B A' A'  B'

A B A B A B

A  B' A'  B A'B'

A B A B A B
Exercise 5D

a) P(A  B)  0.7
Q4 P(A)  0.6 P(B)  0.5 P(A  B)  0.4
P(B  A) 0.4 2
b) P(B/A)   
A B P(A) 0.6 3
P(A  B) 0.4
0.2 0.4 0.1 c) P(A/B)    0 .8
P(B) 0.5
0.3 P(A  B' ) 0.2
d) P(A/B' )    0.4
P(B' ) 0.5

Q5 P(A)  0.4 P(B)  0.5 P(A/B)  0.4 P(A  B)  P(A/B)  P(B)

A B  0.4  0.5  0.2
P(B  A) 0.2 1
0.2 0.2 0.3 a) P(B/A)   
P(A) 0.4 2
0.3 b) P(A'B' )  0.3

c) P(A'B)  0.3
 1 1 3 P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B) - P(A  B)
Q6 P(A)  P(B)  P(A  B) 
4 2 5
1 1 3 3
   
A B 4 2 5 20
1 3 7 P(A  B) 3 3
a) P(A/B)   20

10 20 20 P(B) 3
20  7 20 10
2
7 2
5 b) P(A'B)  c) P(A'B' ) 
20 5

1 1 1 P(C  D) 1
Q7 P(C/D)  a) P(C/D)     P(C  D) 
3 1 3 3 P(D) 12
P(D) 
1 4
P(C/D' )  1 1 P(C  D' ) 3
5 b) P(C/D' )     P(C  D' ) 
5 5 P(D' ) 20
A B
7 P(D  C) 1 5
c) P(C)  d) P(D/C)   12

3 1 1 30 P(C) 7 14
30
20 12 6
3 P(D'C) 3 9
e) P(D' /C)   30

5 P(C) 7
30 14
P(D'C' ) 3 18
f) P(D' /C' )   5

P(C' ) 23
30 23