Statistical

Statistical Estimation
Estimation
 Point estimate -- the single value of a
statistic calculated from a sample

 Interval Estimate -- a range of values

calculated from a sample statistic(s) and
standardized statistics, such as the Z.
• Selection of the standardized statistic is
determined by the sampling
distribution.
• Selection of critical values of the
standardized statistic is determined by
the desired level of confidence.
 Confidence
Confidence Interval
Interval
to Estimate  when
to Estimate when nn is
is Large
Large

 Point estimate X
X
n

Interval Estimate 

XZ
n
or
 
XZ XZ
n n
Slide 8-
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2
 Interval Estimation
 Interval Estimation of a Population Mean:
Large-Sample Case
 Interval Estimation of a Population Mean:
Small-Sample Case
 Determining the Sample Size
 Interval Estimation of a Population Proportion

x

[--------------------- x ---------------------]
[--------------------- x ---------------------]
[--------------------- x ---------------------]

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3
 Interval Estimation of a Population Mean:
Large-Sample Case
 Sampling Error
 Probability Statements about the Sampling Error
 Constructing an Interval Estimate:
Large-Sample Case with  Known
 Calculating an Interval Estimate:
Large-Sample Case with  Unknown

Slide
4
 Sampling Error

 The absolute value of the difference between an

unbiased point estimate and the population
parameter it estimates is called the sampling error.
 For the case of a sample mean estimating a
population mean, the sampling error is
Sampling Error = | x  |

Slide
5
 Probability Statements
About the Sampling Error
 Knowledge of the sampling distribution of x enables
us to make probability statements about the sampling
error even though the population mean  is not
known.
 A probability statement about the sampling error is a
precision statement.

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6
 Probability Statements
About the Sampling Error
 Precision Statement
There is a 1 -  probability that the value of a
sample mean will provide a sampling error of
z /2or xless.
Sampling
distribution
of x
1 -  of all
/2 x values /2

x


Slide
7
 Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
Large-Sample Case (n > 30)
 With  Known

x  z /2
n
where: x is the sample mean
1 - is the confidence coefficient
z/2 is the z value providing an area of
/2 in the upper tail of the standard
normal probability distribution
s is the population standard deviation
n is the sample size

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8
 Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
Large-Sample Case (n > 30)
 With  Unknown
In most applications the value of the population
standard deviation is unknown. We simply use the
value of the sample standard deviation, s, as the
point estimate of the population standard deviation.
s
x  z /2
n

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9
 Distribution
Distribution of
of Sample
Sample Means
Means
for
for (1-)%
(1-)% Confidence
Confidence

 
2 2


 X

Z
 Z 0 Z 
2 2
 Z
Z Scores
Scores for
for Confidence
Confidence Intervals
Intervals
in
in Relation to 
Relation to

 
2   2
.5 .5
2 2
 X

Z
 Z 0 Z
2 2
 Distribution
Distribution of
of Sample
Sample Means
Means
for
for (1-)%
(1-)% Confidence
Confidence

 
2 1  1  2
2 2
 X

Z
 Z 0 Z 
2 2
 Probability
Probability Interpretation
Interpretation
of
of the
the Level
Level of
of Confidence
Confidence

 
Pr ob[ X  Z   X Z ] 1
2 n 2 n

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13
 Distribution
Distribution of
of Sample
Sample Means
Means
for
for 95%
95% Confidence
Confidence

.025 .025
95%
.4750 .4750

 X

Z
-1.96 0 1.96
 Example:
Example: 95%
95% Confidence
Confidence
Interval for 
Interval for


X
4
.
26
,1
.
1
,a
n
d
n6
0
. 
 
XZ XZ
n n
1.1 1.1
. 61.96
42 42
. 61.96
60 60
4.260.2842. 60.28
3.984.54
95%
95% Confidence
Confidence Intervals for 
Intervals for

95%

 X

X
X

X
X
X
X
 Problem
Problem
X  10.455,   7.7, and n  44.
90% confidence  Z  1645
.
 
X Z   X Z
n n
7 .7 7 .7
10.455  1.645    10.455  1.645
44 44
10.455  1.91    10.455  1.91
8.545    12 .365

Pr ob[8.545    12.365]  0.90

 Problem
Problem

X  34.3,   8, N = 800 and n  50.

98% confidence  Z  2.33

 N n  N n
X Z   X Z
n N 1 n N 1
8 800  50 8 800  50
34.3  2.33    34.3  2.33
50 800  1 50 800  1
34.3  2.55    34.3  2.55
31.75    36.85
 Confidence
Confidence Interval
Interval to Estimate 
to Estimate
when
when nn is
is Large and  is
Large and is Unknown
Unknown

S
X  Z 2
n
or
S S
X  Z    X  Z
2
n n 2
Z
Z Values
Values for
for Some
Some of
of the
the More
More Common
Common Levels
Levels of
of
Confidence
Confidence

Confidence
Z Value
Level

90% 1.645

95% 1.96

98% 2.33

99% 2.575
 Example: National Discount, Inc.

National Discount has 260 retail outlets

throughout the United States. National evaluates
each potential location for a new retail outlet in part
on the mean annual income of the individuals in the
marketing area of the new location.
Sampling can be used to develop an interval
estimate of the mean annual income for individuals
in a potential marketing area for National Discount.
A sample of size n = 36 was taken. The sample
mean, x , is $21,100 and the sample standard
deviation, s, is $4,500. We will use .95 as the
confidence coefficient in our interval estimate.

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 Example: National Discount, Inc.

 Precision Statement
There is a .95 probability that the value of a sample
mean for National Discount will provide a sampling
error of $1,470 or less……. determined as follows:
95% of thesample
x
means that can be observed are
within + 1.96 of the population mean .

If  x  s  4,500 750 = 1,470.  x

, then 1.96
n 36

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 Example: National Discount, Inc.

 Interval Estimate of the Population Mean:  Unknown

Interval Estimate of  is:

$21,100 + $1,470
or $19,630 to $22,570
We are 95% confident that the interval contains the
population mean.

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 Interval Estimation of a Population Mean:
Small-Sample Case (n < 30)
 Population is Not Normally Distributed
The only option is to increase the sample size to
n > 30 and use the large-sample interval-estimation
procedures.
 Population is Normally Distributed and  is Known
The large-sample interval-estimation procedure can
be used.
 Population is Normally Distributed and  is Unknown
The appropriate interval estimate is based on a
probability distribution known as the t distribution.

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 t Distribution

 The t distribution is a family of similar probability

distributions.
 A specific t distribution depends on a parameter
known as the degrees of freedom.
 As the number of degrees of freedom increases, the
difference between the t distribution and the
standard normal probability distribution becomes
smaller and smaller.
 A t distribution with more degrees of freedom has
less dispersion.
 The mean of the t distribution is zero.

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 Interval Estimation of a Population Mean:
Small-Sample Case (n < 30) with  Unknown
 Interval Estimate
s
x  t /2
n
where 1 - = the confidence coefficient
t/2 = the t value providing an area of /2
in the upper tail of a t
distribution
with n - 1 degrees of freedom
s = the sample standard deviation

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 Example: Apartment Rents

 Interval Estimation of a Population Mean:

Small-Sample Case (n < 30) with  Unknown
A reporter for a student newspaper is writing an
article on the cost of off-campus housing. A sample
of 10 one-bedroom units within a half-mile of
campus resulted in a sample mean of $550 per month
and a sample standard deviation of $60.
Let us provide a 95% confidence interval estimate
of the mean rent per month for the population of one-
bedroom units within a half-mile of campus. We’ll
assume this population to be normally distributed.

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 Example: Apartment Rents

 t Value
At 95% confidence, 1 -  = .95,  = .05, and /2 = .025.
t.025 is based on n - 1 = 10 - 1 = 9 degrees of freedom.
In the t distribution table we see that t.025 = 2.262.
Degrees Area in Upper Tail
of Freedom .10 .05 .025 .01 .005
. . . . . .
7 1.415 1.895 2.365 2.998 3.499
8 1.397 1.860 2.306 2.896 3.355
9 1.383 1.833 2.262 2.821 3.250
10 1.372 1.812 2.228 2.764 3.169
. . . . . .

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 Example: Apartment Rents

 Interval Estimation of a Population Mean:

Small-Sample Case (n < 30) with  Unknown
s
x  t.025
n
60
550  2.262
10
550 + 42.92
or $507.08 to $592.92
We are 95% confident that the mean rent per month
for the population of one-bedroom units within a
half-mile of campus is between $507.08 and $592.92.

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 Sample Size for an Interval Estimate
of a Population Mean
 Let E = the maximum sampling error mentioned in
the precision statement.
 E is the amount added to and subtracted from the
point estimate to obtain an interval estimate.
 E is often referred to as the margin of error.
 We have

E  z /2
n
 Solving for n we have
( z / 2 ) 2  2
n
E2

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 Example: National Discount, Inc.

 Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population

Mean
Suppose that National’s management team wants
an estimate of the population mean such that there is
a .95 probability that the sampling error is $500 or
less.
How large a sample size is needed to meet the
required precision?

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 Example: National Discount, Inc.

 Sample Size for Interval Estimate of a Population Mean


z /2  500
n
At 95% confidence, z.025 = 1.96.
Recall that = 4,500.
Solving for n we have
(1.96)2 (4,500)2
n 2
 311.17
(500)
We need to sample 312 to reach a desired precision of
+ $500 at 95% confidence.

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 Interval Estimation
of a Population Proportion
 Interval Estimate

p (1  p )
p  z / 2
n

where: 1 - is the confidence coefficient

z/2 is the z value providing an area of
/2 in the upper tail of the standard
normal probability distribution
ispthe sample proportion

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 Example: Political Science, Inc.

 Interval Estimation of a Population Proportion

Political Science, Inc. (PSI) specializes in voter
polls and surveys designed to keep political office
seekers informed of their position in a race. Using
telephone surveys, interviewers ask registered voters
who they would vote for if the election were held
that day.
In a recent election campaign, PSI found that 220
registered voters, out of 500 contacted, favored a
particular candidate. PSI wants to develop a 95%
confidence interval estimate for the proportion of the
population of registered voters that favors the
candidate.

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 Example: Political Science, Inc.

 Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion

p (1  p )
p  z / 2
n
where: n = 500, p = 220/500 = .44, z/2 = 1.96
. 44 (1. 44 )
. 44  1. 96
500
.44 + .0435
PSI is 95% confident that the proportion of all voters
that favors the candidate is between .3965 and .4835.

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 Sample Size for an Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
 Let E = the maximum sampling error mentioned in
the precision statement.
 We have
p (1  p )
E  z / 2
n
 Solving for n we have
( z / 2 ) 2 p (1  p )
n
E2

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 Example: Political Science, Inc.

 Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population

Proportion
Suppose that PSI would like a .99 probability that
the sample proportion is within + .03 of the
population proportion.
How large a sample size is needed to meet the
required precision?

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 Example: Political Science, Inc.

 Sample Size for Interval Estimate of a Population

Proportion
At 99% confidence, z.005 = 2.576.
( z / 2 ) 2 p (1  p ) ( 2. 576) 2 (. 44 )(. 56)
n 2
 2
 1817
E (. 03)
Note: We used .44 as the best estimate of p in the
above expression. If no information is available
about p, then .5 is often assumed because it provides
the highest possible sample size. If we had used
p = .5, the recommended n would have been 1843.

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