Statistics and Probability

Course Outline

I. Random Variables and Probability Distribution

What are chances that an event occurs?
1. Types of Random Variables
2. Probability Distribution of Discrete Random Variable
3. Mean and Variance of Discrete Random Variable
 Statistics and Probability
Course Outline

II. Normal Distribution: What is special about it?

1. Normal Random Variable

2. Normal Distribution and its Properties
3. Standard Normal Distribution
4. Finding the Areas Under the Normal Curve
 Statistics and Probability
Course Outline

III. Sampling and Sampling Distribution:

How do samples vary?

1. Population and Samples

2. Random Samples
3. Random Sampling Procedure
4. Central Limit Theorem
 Statistics and Probability
Course Outline
How confident are we in
IV. Estimation of Parameters:
our estimates?
1. Population Mean and Point Estimate
2. Point and Interval Estimate
3. Confidence Level
4. t-distribution
 Statistics and Probability
Course Outline

V. Tests of Hypothesis: Reject or Fail to reject?

1. Null and Alternative Hypothesis

2. Types of Error in Hypothesis Testing
3. Two Kinds of Tests
4. Steps in Hypothesis Testing
 Statistics and Probability
Course Outline

VI. Correlation and regression: How are variables related?

1. Correlation
2. Regression: Linear Regression Model
Nature of
Statistics
What is Statistics?
 Many people will probably respond that statistics is
numbers, charts, graphs, etc.
For example:

“A survey of traffic deaths during the past Good

Friday weekend shows a 36% decrease in fatalities
compared with last year.” (Source: Philippine
Daily Inquirer)
“… men who eat just two servings of raw tomatoes a
week have 34% less risk of developing prostate
cancer.” (Source: Journal of the National Cancer
Institute)

“At least six big garment exporters, which account for

a fourth of the country’s total garment exports to the
US, are expanding their capacities by 20% following
the decision of the …” (Source: Manila Bulletin)
What is Data?

Data consists of information coming from observations,

counts, measurements, or responses. The singular term for
data is datum.

2 types of data:
1. Quantitative data (numeric values)
2. Qualitative data (categorical or attribute)
 The use of statistics dates back to census taking in
ancient Babylonia, Egypt, and later in the Roman Empire,
when data were collected about matters concerning the
state, such as births and deaths. In fact, the word statistics is
derived from the Latin word status, meaning, “state”.
Statistics is the science of collecting, classifying,
organizing, summarizing, analyzing, and interpreting data in
order to draw conclusions or make decisions.

2 types of statistics:
1. Descriptive statistics (Numerical/Graphical Methods)
2. Inferential Statistics (Generalizing Methods)
Example 1. A large of men at age 48, was studied for 18
years. Results revealed that 60% to 70% unmarried men,
were alive at age 65, while 90% of the married men, were
alive at age 65. Which part of the study represents the
descriptive branch of statistics? What conclusions might
be drawn from this study using inferential statistics?
(Source: Philippine Daily Inquirer)
Solution:
Descriptive statistics involves statements such as
“60% to 70% unmarried men were alive at age 65” while
“90% married men were alive at 65.” A possible inference
drawn from the study shows that being married is
associated with a longer life for men.
We use inferential statistics to try to infer from the sample
data what the population might think. Or, we use inferential
statistics to make judgments of the probability that an
observed difference between groups is a dependable one or
one that might have happened by chance in this study.
A population is used to designate the complete set of items
that is of interest in the research.

A census is the collection of data from every element in a

population.

A unit is an individual object or person in the population.

The units are often called subjects if the population consists
of people.
 A sample is a subset of items that is chosen from the
population.

A variable is a characteristics of interest to be measured

for each unit in the sample.
The size of the population is denoted by the capital letter
N.

The size of the sample is denoted by the small letter n.

 For example:

The population size is N = 16.

The sample size is n = 4.

Population
Unit
Sample
Example 1. In a recent survey, 1 000 high school
students were asked if they read news on the internet at
least once a week. Six hundred of the students said yes.
Identify the population and the sample. Describe the data
set.
 Solution: Response of all high
The population consists of the school (Population)
responses of all high school students
while a sample consists of the responses
of the 1 000 high school students in the Response of
survey. students in survey
(Sample)
The sample is a subset of the
responses of all high school students.
The data set consists of 600 yes’s and
400 no’s.
Another two important terms used are parameter and
statistics.

A parameter is a numerical description of a population

characteristics.

A statistic is a numerical description of a sample

characteristic.
Example 2. Decide whether the numerical value describes a
population parameter or a sample statistic. Give a reason to your
answer.

a. A recent survey of a sample of top executives reported that the

average starting salary for a top executive is less than P45 000.00.

b. Starting salaries for the 67 top executive graduates from College

of Business Administration at the XYZ University has increased
by 8.5% from the previous year.
Solution:
a. Because the numerical measure of P45 000 is based on
a subset of the population, it is a sample statistic.

b. Because the numerical measure of 8.5% is based on all

67 graduates’ starting salaries, it is a population parameter.
Exercise 1.
I. Determine whether the statement is true or false. If it
is is false, rewrite it as a true statement.
1. A statistic is a measure that describes a
population characteristics.
2. A sample is a subset of a population.
3. It is almost impossible for the Census Bureau to
obtain all the census data about the population of
the Philippines
Exercise 1.
I. Determine whether the statement is true or false. If it
is is false, rewrite it as a true statement.
4. Inferential Statistics involves using a
population to draw conclusion about a
corresponding sample.
5. The singular term for data is datum.
II. Determine whether the data set is a population or a
sample.
1. The age of each provincial governor
2. The speed of every fifth car passing a police speed
trap
3. A survey of 500 students from a university with 2 000
students
4. The annual salary for each employee at a
company
5. A survey of 20 teenagers from a 50 teenagers
III. Determine whether the numerical value is a
parameter or a statistics.
1. The average annual salary for 35 employees of a
company is P5 700 000.
2. In a survey of a sample of high school students, 43%
said that their mother had taught about the importance of
saving money.
3. In 1997, the interested category for 12% of all new
magazines was sports.
RANDOM VARIABLE
1.1
Getting ready!!!
Estimate the probability that an event may occur by
choosing from items listed on the right.
1. It snows in the Philippines. No chance
2. You win in the Mega Lotto. Small Chance
50% chance
3. The next child is a baby boy.
Big chance
4. Tossing a coin results in a tail. Certain
Experiment. An experiment is any activity or procedure
which generates a set of data.

Sample Space. A collection of all possible outcomes in a

given experiment and is denoted by the symbol S.

Event. Subset of a sample space.

Sample point. Each outcome of a sample space.

 For example, a coin is tossed thrice. Let the
variable X represent the number of heads that
result from this experiment.
 The sample space for the possible outcome is
S = { HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH,
TTT }
The value of the variable X can be 0, 1, 2, or 3.
Then, in this example, X is a random variable.
 A random variable is a variable whose possible
values are determined by chance. A random variable
is typically represented by an uppercase letter, usually
X, Y or Z while its corresponding lowercase letter in
this case, x, y, z is used to represent one of its values.

- it is a variable that takes a single value (real

number), subject to variations due to chance.
Random variables can either be
discrete or continuous.

A discrete random variable can only take a finite

(countable) number of distinct values. Distinct values
mean values that are exact and can be represented by
nonnegative whole numbers.
The following are examples of discrete random
variables.

1. Let X = number of students randomly selected to be

interviewed by a researcher.

Ans: This is a discrete random variable because its possible

values are 0, 1, 2, and so on.
The following are examples of discrete random
variables.

2. Let Y = number of left handed teachers randomly

selected in a faculty room.

Ans: This is a discrete random variable because its possible

values are 0, 1, 2, and so on.
 A continuous random variable can assume an infinite
number of values in an interval between two specific values.
This means they can assume values that can be represented
not only by nonnegative whole numbers but also by fractions
and decimals. These values are often results of measurement.
The following are examples of continuous random
variables.

1.Let Z = the hourly temperatures last Sunday.

2. Let Y = the heights of daisy plants in the backyard.

Exercise 2. Determine if the random variable X or Y is
discrete or continuous.

a. X = number of points scored in the last season by a

randomly selected basketball player in PBA
b. Y = the height of a randomly selected student inside the
library in centimeter
c. X = number of birds in a nest
d. Y = the weights in kg of randomly selected dancers after
taking up aerobics
 Answers:
a. This is a discrete random variable because its possible values
are 0, 1, 2, and so on.
b. This is a continuous random variable because it can
assume any value between two given heights such as 167.64 cm.
c. This is a discrete random variable because its possible values
are 0, 1, 2, and so on.
d. This is a continuous random variable because it can
assume any value including all decimal values that are between
two given weights. After taking up aerobics, the weight of one of the
dancers could be 56.9 kg.
 A listing of all possible values of a discrete random
variable along with their corresponding probabilities
is called a discrete probability distribution. The
discrete probability distribution can be presented in
tabular, graphical, or formula form.
 The sample space for the possible outcome is
S = { HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH,
TTT }
The value of the variable X can be 0, 1, 2, or 3.
Then, in this example, X is a random variable.
Properties of a discrete probability distribution.
 

a. The probability of each value of a discrete

random variable is between 0 and 1 inclusive.
0
b. The sum of all the probabilities is 1.
Example 1. The given spinner is divided into four sections. Let
X be the score where the arrow will stop ( numbered as 1, 2, 3,
and 4, in the drawing below).
a. Find the probability that the arrow will stop at
1, 2, 3, and 4.
b. Construct the discrete probability distribution of
the random variable X.

1 2
3 4
Let X = score on the spinner
 

The probability that the arrow will stop at any of the 4

divisions is 1 out of 4 or
These probabilities are shown below:
a. P(1) = P(2) =
P(3) = P(4) =
b. The discrete probability distribution is presented in tabular
form below:

X 1 2 3 4
P(x)
Example 1. The given spinner is divided into four sections. Let
X be the score where the arrow will stop ( numbered as 1, 2, 3,
and 4, in the drawing below).

In this experiment, is this discrete or not discrete?

Properties of a discrete probability distribution.
 

a. The probability of each value of a discrete

random variable is between 0 and 1 inclusive.
0
b. The sum of all the probabilities is 1.
 
The first property is met. Each of the probabilities is
greater than zero but less than 1.
The sum of all the probabilities is 1.

= + + +
=1
The two requirements for discrete probability distribution
are satisfied. Therefore, the distribution is a discrete
probability distribution.
Exercise 2. The spinner below is divided into eight sections.
Let X be the score where the arrow will stop (numbered as 1,
2, 3, 4, in the drawing below)

a. Find the probability that the arrow will stop

at 1,2,3, and 4.
b. Construct the discrete probability distribution of the
random variable X. 1 2
1 2

4 3
4 3
Example 3. When two fair dice are thrown simultaneously, the
following are the possible outcomes.

(1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)

(2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)

(3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)

(4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)

(5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)

(6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)

The random variable X is defined as the sum of the two
outcomes in throwing the two fair dice simultaneously.

The possible values [P(x)] are 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12.

 The probabilities of each of the possible values P(x) are
given below:
 

P(2) = P(1, 1) =

P(3) = P(1, 2) + P(2, 1) = =

P(4) = P(1, 3) + P(2, 2) + P(3, 1) = =

 

P(5) = P(1, 4) + P(2, 3) + P(3, 2) + P(4, 1) =

P(6) = P(1, 5) + P(2, 4) + P(3, 3) + P(4, 2) + P(5, 1) =

P(7) = P(1, 6) + P(2, 5) + P(3, 4) + P(4, 3) + P(5, 2) + P(6, 1) =

P(8) = P(2, 6) + P(3, 5) + P(4, 4) + P(5, 3) + P(6, 2) =

P(9) = P(3, 6) + P(4, 5) + P(5, 4) + P(6, 3) = =

 

P(10) = P(4, 6) + P(5, 5) + P(6, 4) = =

P(11) = P(5, 6) + P(6, 5) = =

P(12) = P(6, 6) =
The discrete probability distribution (in tabular form) is
given below:

x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

P(x)

The first property 0

 
  
= ++ +++++++
=1

The sum of all the probabilities is 1 so, the second property is

also met.

Therefore, the distribution is a discrete probability

distribution.
Example 4. A discrete random variable X has the following
probability distribution:

x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.1 0.2 ? 0.2 0.2

a. Determine P(2).
Solution:
 

Use the second property of discrete probability

distribution to determine P(2).

a. = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4)

1 = 0.1 + 0.2 + P(2) + 0.2 + 0.2

1 = 0.7 + P(2)

P(2) = 0.3
Exercise 1. A random variable X has the following
probability distribution:

x 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.21 29c 0.29 0.21

a. Determine c.
PROBGroupie!!

For now, find a partner and solve the following

problems.
1.
x 1 2 3 4 5

P(x) 0.10 0.20 0.25 0.40 0.05

Is it a discrete probability distribution? If it is not a

discrete probability distribution, identify the property or
properties that are not satisfied.
2.
x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x)
P(x)

Is it a discrete probability distribution? If it is not a

discrete probability distribution, identify the property or
properties that are not satisfied.
3.

x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.05 0.25 0.4 ? 0.06

a. Find P(3).
4.
x 1 2 3 4 5

P(x) c

a.Find the value of c.

b. Construct a probability histogram to
describe P(x).
Assignment.

State a situation in your life as a student in which

you brought happiness or avoided disappointing
you parents by considering all possible
outcomes of your decision. Give the factors
which you have considered before you finalized
your decisions. What important lesson/s did you
learn from this experience.