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Chapter
Six
McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved.
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Chapter Six
Discrete Probability Distributions
GOALS
When you have completed this chapter, you will be able to:
ONE
Define the terms random variable and probability
distribution.
TWO
Distinguish between a discrete and continuous probability
distributions.
THREE
Calculate the mean, variance, and standard deviation of a
discrete probability distribution.
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Chapter Six continued
Discrete Probability Distributions
GOALS
When you have completed this chapter, you will be able to:
FOUR
Describe the characteristics and compute probabilities
using the binomial probability distribution.
FIVE
Describe the characteristics and compute probabilities
using the hypergeometric distribution.
SIX
Describe the characteristics and compute the
probabilities using the Poisson distribution.
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Probability
Distribution Types of Probability
A listing of all Distributions
possible outcomes
of an experiment Discrete probability Distribution
and the Can assume only certain
corresponding outcomes
probability. Continuous Probability Distribution
Random variable Can assume an infinite number of
A numerical value values within a given range
determined by the
outcome of an
experiment. Types of Probability Distributions
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Continuous Probability Distribution
Movie
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Discrete Probability Distribution
The sum of the The outcomes The probability
probabilities of are mutually of a particular
the various exclusive. outcome is
outcomes is 1.00. between 0 and
1.00.
The number of
students in a class
The number of The number of
cars entering a children in a family
carwash in a hour
Features of a Discrete Distribution
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Consider a random
The possible outcomes for
experiment in which a
such an experiment
coin is tossed three
times. Let x be the
TTT, TTH, THT, THH,
number of heads. Let
HTT, HTH, HHT, HHH
H represent the
outcome of a head and Thus the possible
T the outcome of a tail. values of x (number
of heads) are 0,1,2,3.
From the definition
of a random variable,
x as defined in this
experiment, is a
random variable. Example 1
The 6- 8
outcome of
two heads
occurred
three times. The outcome of zero
heads occurred once.
The
outcome
of one
The head
outcome of occurred
three heads three
occurred times.
once. EXAMPLE 1 continued
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Mean The long-run average value
of the random variable
The central location of the data
[ xP( x)]
A weighted average Also referred to as its
expected value, E(X), in a
where
probability distribution
represents the mean
P(x) is the probability of The Mean of a Discrete
the various outcomes x. Probability Distribution
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Variance
Denoted by the Greek
letter s2
Measures the (sigma squared)
amount of spread
(variation) of a
Standard deviation is
distribution
the square root of s2.
2 2
[( x ) P( x)]
The Variance of a Discrete
Probability Distribution
# houses # of Percent 6- 11
Painted weeks of weeks
10 5 20 (5/20)
11 6 30 (6/20)
P h y s ic s
12 7 35 (7/20)
13 2 10 (2/20)
Total percent 100
(20/20)
Dan Desch, owner of College Painters, studied his
records for the past 20 weeks and reports the
following number of houses painted per week.
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# houses Probability
Mean number of
painted (x) P(x) x*P(x) houses painted
10 .25 2.5 per week
11 .30 3.3
[ xP( x)]
12 .35 4.2
13 .10 1.3
11.3
EXAMPLE 2
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Variance in the number of
2 2
houses painted per week [( x ) P ( x)]
# houses Probability (x-
painted (x) P(x) (x- (x- P(x)
10 .25 10-11.3 1.69 .423
11 .30 11-11.3 .09 .027
12 .35 12-11.3 .49 .171
13 .10 13-11.3 2.89 .289
.910
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Binomial Probability Distribution
An outcome of The
an experiment is The data probability
classified into collected are of success
one of two the results of stays the
counts. same for
mutually
each trial.
exclusive
categories, such
as a success or The trials are independent.
failure.
Binomial Probability
Distribution
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Binomial Probability Distribution
x n x
P( x) n C x (1 )
n is the number of trials
x is the number of observed successes
p is the probability of success on each trial
n Cx n!
x!(n-x)!
Binomial Probability
Distribution
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The Alabama Department
of Labor reports that 20% What is the
of the workforce in Mobile probability that
is unemployed and exactly three are
interviewed 14 workers. unemployed?
P( x 3)14 C3 (.20) 3 (.80)11 ...14 C14 (.20)14 (.80) 0
.250 .172 ... .000 .551
At least three are P (3)14 C 3 (.20) 3 (1 .20)11
unemployed? (364)(.0080)(.0859)
.2501
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The probability at least one is unemployed?
P( x 1) 1 P(0)
0 14
114 C0 (.20) (1 .20)
1 .044 .956
Example 3
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Mean of the Binomial Distribution
n
Variance of the Binomial Distribution
n (1 )
2
Mean & Variance of the Binomial
Distribution
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Example 3 Revisited
Recall that =.2 and n=14
= n = 14(.2) = 2.8
2 = n (1- ) = (14)(.2)(.8) =2.24
Mean and Variance Example
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Finite Population
A population consisting The number
of a fixed number of of students in
known individuals, this class
objects, or measurements
The number of cars
in the parking lot
The number of homes
built in Blackmoor
Finite Population
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Hypergeometric Distribution
Only 2 possible outcomes
Results from a count of
the number of successes in
a fixed number of trials
Trials are not independent
Sampling from a finite population
without replacement, the probability of
a success is not the same on each trial.
Hypergeometric Distribution
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Hypergeometric Distribution
( S Cx )( N S Cn x )
P( x )
N Cn
where
N is the size of the population
S is the number of successes in the population
x is the number of successes in a sample of n
observations
Hypergeometric Distribution
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Use to find the probability
of a specified number of
successes or failures if
The sample is selected from a finite population
without replacement (recall that a criteria for
the binomial distribution is that the probability
of success remains the same from trial to trial).
The size of the sample n is
greater than 5% of the
size of the population N
Hypergeometric Distribution
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The Transportation
Security Agency has a
list of 10 reported
safety violations.
Suppose only 4 of the
reported violations
are actual violations
and the Security What is the probability
Agency will only be that three of five
able to investigate violations randomly
five of the violations. selected to be investigated
are actually violations?
EXAMPLE 5
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( 4 C 3 )(10 4 C 5 2
P (3)
10 C 5
( 4 C 3 )( 6 C 2 ) 4(15)
.238
10 C 5 252
The limiting form of the The binomial distribution
binomial distribution becomes more skewed to
where the probability of the right (positive) as the
success is small and n is probability of success
large is called the Poisson become smaller.
probability distribution. Poisson probability
distribution
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Poisson Probability Distribution
= np
where
e x u
P( x ) n is the number of trials
x! p the probability of a
success
where
is the mean number of successes
Variance
in a particular interval of time
Also equal to np
e is the constant 2.71828
x is the number of successes
Poisson probability
distribution
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The Sylvania Urgent
Care facility specializes
in caring for minor
injuries, colds, and flu.
For the evening hours of
6-10 PM the mean
number of arrivals is 4.0
per hour. What is the
probability of 2 arrivals
in an hour?
ex u 2
4 e 4
P( x) .1465
x! 2!
EXAMPLE 6
