RELIABILITY

RELIABILITY

• Reliability is the probability of a product performing its intended function

for a stated period of time under certain specified conditions.

• Four aspects of reliability are apparent from this definition. First, reliability
is a probability-related concept; the numerical value of this probability is
between 0 and 1.

• Second, the functional performance of the product has to meet certain

stipulations. Product design will usually ensure development of a product
that meets or exceeds the stipulated requirements.
• Third, reliability implies successful operation over a certain period of time.
Although no product is expected to last forever, the time requirement
ensures satisfactory performance over at least a minimal stated period (say,
two years).

• Fourth, operating or environmental conditions under which product use

takes place are specified.
LIFE-CYCLE CURVE AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
IN MODELING RELIABILITY
• Most products go through three distinct phases from product inception to
wear-out.
• Figure shows a typical life-cycle curve for which the failure rate λ is plotted
as a function of time.
• This curve is often referred to as the bathtub curve; it consists of the
debugging phase, the chance-failure phase, and the wear-out phase.
• The debugging phase, also known as the infant mortality phase, exhibits a
drop in the failure rate as initial problems identified during prototype testing
are ironed out.
• The chance failure phase, between times t1 and t2, is then encountered;
failures occur randomly and independently. This phase, in which the failure
rate is constant, typically represents the useful life of the product.
• Following this is the wear-out phase, in which an increase in the failure rate is
observed. Here, at the end of their useful life, parts age and wear out.
 Probability Distributions to Model Failure Rate

• Exponential Distribution
• The life-cycle curve of Figure previously shows the variation of the failure
rate as a function of time.

• For the chance-failure phase, which represents the useful life of the
product, the failure rate is constant. As a result, the exponential distribution
can be used to describe the time to failure of the product for this phase.

• The exponential distribution have a probability density function, given by

• where λ denotes the failure rate

• The mean time to failure (MTTF) for the exponential distribution is given
as

• Thus, if the failure rate is constant, the mean time to failure isthe reciprocal
of the failure rate.

• For repairable equipment, this is also equal to the mean time between
failures (MTBF).

• There will be a difference between MTBF and MTTF only if there is a

significant repair or replacement time upon failure of the product.
• The reliability at time t, R(t), is the probability of the product lasting up to at
least time t. It is given by

• where F(t) represents the cumulative distribution function at time t.

• At time 0, the reliability is 1, as it should be. Reliability decreases
exponentially with time
• In general, the failure-rate function r(t) is given by the ratio of the time-to-
failure probability density function to the reliability function.

• We have,

• For the exponential failure distribution

• implying a constant failure rate, as mentioned earlier.

• Ques. An amplifier has an exponential time-to-failure distribution with a
failure rate of 8% per 1000 hours. What is the reliability of the amplifier at
5000 hours? Find the mean time to failure.

• Ans. The constant failure rate λ is obtained as

• The reliability at 5000 hours is

• The mean time to failure is

Ques. What is the highest failure rate for a product if it is to have a probability
of survival (i.e., successful operation) of 95% at 4000 hours? Assume that the
time to failure follows an exponential distribution.

Ans. The reliability at 4000 hours is 0.95. If the constant failure rate is given by
λ , we have

Or

Thus, λ ˆ= 0.0000128/hour =ˆ 12.8 * 106 hours

Thus, the highest failure rate is 12.8/106 hours for a reliability of 0.95 at 4000
hours.
 Availability

• The availability of a system at time t is the probability that the system will
be up and running at time t.
• To improve availability, maintenance procedures are incorporated, which
may include periodic or preventive maintenance or condition-based
maintenance.
• An availability index is defined as

• Downtime may consist of active repair time, administrative time

(processing of necessary paperwork), and logistic time (waiting time due to
lack of parts).
• Further, downtime can be reduced through adequate maintenance plans. For
a steady-state system, denoting the mean time to repair (MTTR) to include
all the various components of down- time, we have

• In the situation when the time-to-failure distribution is exponential (with a

failure rate λ) and the time-to-repair distribution is also exponential (with a
repair rate μ), the availability is given by μ/(λ+ μ).
 SYSTEM RELIABILITY

• Most products are made up of a number of components. The reliability of

each component and the configuration of the system consisting of these
components determine the system reliability (i.e., the reliability of the
product).
• Systems with Components in Series

• Figure shows a system with three components (A, B, and C) in series. For
the system to operate, each component must operate.
• It is assumed that the components operate independent of each other (i.e.,
the failure of one component has no influence on the failure of any other
component).

• In general, if there are n components in series, where the reliability of the ith
component is denoted by Ri, the system reliability is

• The system reliability decreases as the number of components in series

increases.
• Ques. A module of a satellite monitoring system has 500 components in
series. The reliability of each component is 0.999. Find the reliability of the
module. If the number of components in series is reduced to 200, what is the
reliability of the module?

• Ans
• The system reliability for the module is

• Note that even with a high reliability of 0.999 for each component the
system reliability is only 60.6%
• When the number of components in series is reduced to 200, the reliability
of the module is
• Use of the Exponential Model.
• If the system components can be assumed to have a time to failure given by
the exponential distribution and each component has a constant failure rate,
we can compute the system reliability, failure rate, and mean time to failure.

• Suppose that the system has n components in series, each with exponentially
distributed time to failure with failure rates λ1, λ2, ..., λn.

• The system reliability is found as the product of the component reliabilities.

• This equations implies that the time to failure of the system is exponentially
distributed n with an equivalent failure rate of λi.
• Thus, if each component that fails is replaced immediately by another that
has the same failure rate, the mean time to failure for the system is given by

• When all components in series have an identical failure rate, say λ, the MTTF
for the system is given by
• The automatic focus unit of a television camera has 10 components in series.
Each component has an exponential time-to-failure distribution with a
constant failure rate of 0.05 per 4000 hours. What is the reliability of each
component after 2000 hours of operation? Find the reliability of the
automatic focus unit for 2000 hours of operation. What is its mean time to
failure?
• Ans The failure rate for each component is
• λ ˆ= 0.05/4000 hours =ˆ 12.5 x106/hour
• The reliability of each component after 2000 hours of operation is
• R ˆ= exp‰… [- ( 12.5 x 10-6)† 2000] = Šˆ 0.975
• The reliability of the automatic focus unit after 2000 hours of operation is
• R ˆ= exp‰… [- ( 10 x 12.5 x 10-6)† 2000] = Šˆ 0.779
• The mean time to failure of the automatic focus unit is
• MTTF ˆ =1/ (10 x 12.5 x10 -6† ˆ) = 8000 hours
 Systems with Components in Parallel

• System reliability can be improved by placing components in parallel.

• The components are redundant; the system operates as long as at least one of
the components operates.
• The only time the system fails is when all the parallel components fail.
• Suppose that we have n components in parallel, with the reliability of the ith
component denoted by Ri, i=1, 2, . . . , n.
• Assuming that the components operate randomly and independently of each
other, the probability of failure of each component is given by
Fi = 1 - Ri

• Now, the system fails only if all the components fail. Thus, the probability
of system failure is

• The reliability of the system is the complement of Fs and is given by

 Use of the Exponential Model

• If the time to failure of each component can be modeled by the exponential

distribution, each with a constant failure rate λi, I = 1, . .,n, the system
reliability, assuming independence of component operation, is given by

• The time-to-failure distribution of the system is not exponentially distributed. In

the special case where all components have the same failure rate λ, the system
reliability is given by
• A general definition of MTTF is given by

• or this situation, after simplification, the mean time to failure for the system
with n identical components in parallel, assuming that each failed
component is immediately replaced by an identical component, is given by
• Ques. Find the reliability of the system with three components (A, B, and
C) in parallel. The reliabilities of A, B, and C are 0.95, 0.92, and 0.90,
respectively.

• Ans The system reliability is

• Note that the system reliability is much higher than that of the individual
components.
• Designers can increase system reliability by placing more components in
parallel, but the cost of the additional components necessitates a trade-off
between the two objectives.
• Ques. For the system shown in Figure, determine the system reliability for
2000 hours of operation and find the mean time to failure. Assume that all
three components have an identical time-to-failure distribution that is
exponential, with a constant failure rate of 0.0005/hour. What is the mean
time to failure of each component? If it is desired for the system to have a
mean time to failure of 4000 hours, what should the mean time to failure be
for each component?
• Ans The failure rate of each component is λ = 0.0005/hour. For 2000 hours of
operation, the system reliability is

• The mean time to failure for the system is

• The mean time to failure for each component is

• By placing three identical components in parallel, the system MTTF has been
increased by about 83.3%.
• For a desired system MTTF of 4000 hours, we now calculate the required
MTTF of the individual components. We have

• where λ is the failure rate for each component. Solving for λ, we get

• Thus, the MTTF for each component would have to be

 Systems with Components in Series and in Parallel

• Complex systems often consist of components that are both in series and in
parallel.
• Reliability calculations are based on the concepts discussed previously,
assuming that the components operate independently
• Ques. Find the reliability of the eight-component system shown in Figure
some components are in series and some are in parallel. The reliabilities of
the components are as follows.
• RA1 = ˆ 0.92, RA2 ˆ= 0.90, RA3 =ˆ 0.88, RA4 =ˆ 0.96, RB1 =ˆ 0.95, RB2
ˆ= 0.90, RB3= ˆ 0.92, and RC1= ˆ 0.93.
• Ans We first find the reliabilities of each subsystem. For the subsystem with
components A1, A2, A3, and A4, the reliability is

• Similarly, the reliability of the subsystem with components B1, B2, and B3
is

• The system reliability is given by

• Ques. Find the system failure rate and the mean time to failure for the eight
component system shown in Figure. The failure rates (number of units per
hour) for the components are as follows. λA1= ˆ 0.0006, λA2= ˆ 0.0045,
λA3= ˆ 0.0035, λA4= ˆ 0.0016, λB1= ˆ 0.0060, λB2= ˆ 0.0060, λB3 ˆ=
0.0060, and λC1= ˆ 0.0050.
• Ans First we compute failure rates for the subsystems. We have a failure
rate of …λA1 +‡ λA2 =†ˆ 0.0051 for the A1/A2 subsystem; for the A3/A4
subsystem, the failure rate is (λA3+ ‡ λA4) =†ˆ 0.0051. The mean time to
failure for the A1/A2/A3/A4 subsystem is

• The mean time to failure for the subsystem consisting of components B1,
B2, and B3 is
• The system failure rate is

• The mean time to failure for the system is