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Understanding Confidence Interval Estimates For The Population Mean

Here are the steps to solve this problem: a) The point estimate is the sample mean, which is 15.3 years b) 1) 95% CI for mean age: 15.3 ± 1.96(√16/60) 15.3 ± 0.4 14.9 to 15.7 years b) 2) 99% CI for mean age: 15.3 ± 2.58(√16/60) 15.3 ± 0.52 14.78 to 15.82 years c) The 95% CI indicates we can be 95% confident the true mean age lies between 14.9 to 15.7 years. The 99% CI indicates

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CHARLYN JOY SUMALINOG
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556 views16 pages

Understanding Confidence Interval Estimates For The Population Mean

Here are the steps to solve this problem: a) The point estimate is the sample mean, which is 15.3 years b) 1) 95% CI for mean age: 15.3 ± 1.96(√16/60) 15.3 ± 0.4 14.9 to 15.7 years b) 2) 99% CI for mean age: 15.3 ± 2.58(√16/60) 15.3 ± 0.52 14.78 to 15.82 years c) The 95% CI indicates we can be 95% confident the true mean age lies between 14.9 to 15.7 years. The 99% CI indicates

Uploaded by

CHARLYN JOY SUMALINOG
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© © All Rights Reserved
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UNDERSTANDING

CONFIDENCE
INTERVAL ESTIMATES
FOR THE POPULATION
MEAN
OBJECTIVES:
At the end of the lesson, you are expected to:
 Define the following:
 Confidence interval
 Confidence level
 Apply the normal curve concepts in computing the
interval estimate
 Compute confidence interval estimates
Recall!
 Population parameters are usually unknown fixed values. But there are two
ways to determine and report the results.
1. Report a number that describes the average. This number is called the point
estimation.
A point estimate is a specific numerical value of a population
parameter. The sample mean Ẋ is the best point estimate of the
population mean.
2. Report a range of values that contains the number that truly describes the
particular characteristics.
An interval estimate is range of values that may contain the
parameter of a population.
WHAT IS CONFIDENCE INTERVAL and
CONFIDENCE LEVEL?
 CONFIDENCE INTERVAL is the so called interval estimate, it is a range of values that
is used to estimate a parameter. This estimate may or may not contain the true parameter
value.

 CONFIDENCE LEVEL is a degree of confidence (expressed as percentage)


that the interval contains the true and fixed parameter
is made.
The confidence level of an interval estimate of a parameter is the probability that the
interval estimate contains the parameter. It describes what percentage of intervals from
many different samples contain the unknown population parameter.
Continuation……..
There are three commonly used confidence intervals:
the 90% it means 90% contain the true population and
10% do not.
the 95% it means 95% contain the true population and
5% do not.
the 99% it means 99% contain the true population and
1% do not.
Shorter intervals are more informative than longer ones. A short confidence
interval can be obtained by having a large sample or by using a lower
confidence level.
APPLY THE NORMAL CURVE CONCEPTS IN
COMPUTING THE INTERVAL ESTIMATE

 A Standard Normal Distribution is a normal probability with a mean of 0


and standard deviation of 1.
 The area under the curve is 1 or 100%.
 The z – values are also called confidence coefficients or critical values.
 The standard normal variable z is the test statistics used to calculate the
interval boundaries.
95% Confidence Level
 The general formula for confidence interval for large sample is:
the short form of this formula is:
In statistical analysis, (alpha) often use to indicate the level of confidence.
If the confidence is 95%, then is the remaining 5% or 0.05. This is the proportion of the area
that is distributed in both tails of the standard normal distribution curve. So, the area at each tail
is or which is equal to 0.025. This is indicated in the symbol (read as z sub alpha over 2) in
the formula above.
90% & 99% Confidence Level

 Other confidence levels are used in statistics like 90% and 99%.
 In the general formula for determining the interval estimate for the parameter , value is
called the lower confidence boundary or limit and the other value is called the upper
confidence boundary or limit.
 For a 90% confidence interval ,
 For a 95% confidence interval ,
 For a 99% confidence interval ,
Margin of Error
 In the general formula for a confidence interval, the term is called margin of error, denoted by E,
which is defined as the maximum likely difference between the observed sample mean and the true
value of the population mean
 However, when is not known (as often the case), the sample standard deviation s is used to
approximate . So, the formula for E is modified.

Rounding Rule for a Confidence Interval for a Mean


1. In computing a confidence interval for a population mean by using raw data, round to off to one
more decimal place than the number of decimal places in the original data.
2. In computing a confidence interval for a population mean by using a sample mean and a standard
deviation, round off to the same number of decimal places as given for the mean.
A FOUR – STEP PROCESS IN COMPUTING
THE INTERVA ESTIMATE
 STEP 1. Describe the population parameter of STEP 4. Determine the confidence
interest (e.g., mean) interval.
 STEP 2. Specify the confidence interval criteria.
a. Determine the confidence
a. Check the assumptions. coefficients (e.g.,
b. Determine the test statistic to be used.
c. State the level of confidence. b. Find the maximum error E of the
estimate.
 STEP 3. Collect and Present sample evidence.
a. Collect the sample information. c. Find the lower and the upper
confidence limits.
b. Find the point estimate.
d. Describe/interpret the results.
STEP 1. Describe the population parameter of
interest (e.g., mean)
STEP 2. Specify the confidence interval criteria.
a. Check the assumptions.
b. Determine the test statistic to be used.
c. State the level of confidence.
STEP 3. Collect and Present sample evidence.
a. Collect the sample information.
b. Find the point estimate.
STEP 4. Determine the
confidence interval.

a. Determine the confidence


coefficients (e.g.,

b. Find the maximum error E of


the estimate.

c. Find the lower and the upper


confidence limits.

d. Describe/interpret the results.


BOARD WORK!
STEP 1. Describe the population parameter The parameter of interest is mean GPA of the population of entering
mathematics majors.

STEP 2. Specify the confidence interval criteria. The sample size of 40 math majors is large enough for the Central Limit
a. Check assumption theorem to satisfy the assumption that the sampling distribution of means
b. Determine the test statistic to be used to is normal.
calculate the interval The Test statistic is the z=, using
c. State the level of confidence.
99% confidence level, so = 0.01, the confidence coefficient is
STEP 3. Collect and present sample evidence. The sample information consists of 40 raw scores and
a. Collect the sample information.
b. Find the point estimation. 4.0+3.2+3.0+3.2+… .2 .8
𝜒= =3.34( 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 )
40
STEP 4. Determine the confidence interval.
The confidence coefficient is 2.58
a. Determine the confidence coefficient.
b. Find the maximum error E. = 2.58(0.07) = 0.19
c. Find the lower and upper

d. Describe the result

We can say with 99% confidence that the interval between 3.15 and 3.53 contains
the true mean GPA of the population based on the sample GPA of 40 entering
mathematics majors.
QUIZ!
A sample of 60 Grade 9 students’ ages was obtained to estimate
the mean age of all Grade 9 students’.
Ẋ 15. 3 years and the population variance is 16.

a. What is the point estimate ?


a. 1. Find the 95% confidence interval for .
a. 2. Find the 99% confidence interval for .
b. What conclusions can you make based on each
estimate?

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