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SPA3e 3.4 LecturePPT

This document discusses estimating margins of error through simulation. It explains how to approximate the margin of error for a sample proportion and mean. For a proportion, simulations of random samples are used to estimate the standard deviation, which is then multiplied by 2 to obtain the margin of error. The margin of error describes how far the estimate may be from the true population value. Examples are provided to demonstrate approximating margins of error for survey proportions and average travel times to school.

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James Flaugh
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139 views13 pages

SPA3e 3.4 LecturePPT

This document discusses estimating margins of error through simulation. It explains how to approximate the margin of error for a sample proportion and mean. For a proportion, simulations of random samples are used to estimate the standard deviation, which is then multiplied by 2 to obtain the margin of error. The margin of error describes how far the estimate may be from the true population value. Examples are provided to demonstrate approximating margins of error for survey proportions and average travel times to school.

Uploaded by

James Flaugh
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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3

Collecting Data

Lesson 3.4
Estimating a Margin of Error
Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3rd Edition
Starnes & Tabor

Bedford Freeman Worth Publishers


Estimating a Margin of Error
Learning Targets
After this lesson, you should be able to:

 Use simulation to approximate the margin of error for a sample


proportion and interpret the margin of error.
 Use simulation to approximate the margin of error for a sample mean
and interpret the margin of error.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3rd Edition 2


Estimating a Margin of Error
In Lesson 3.3, you learned that the purpose of random sampling is to provide
information about a larger population. You also learned that different random
samples from the same population will produce different estimates for a
population proportion or a population mean.
In this lesson, you will learn how to approximate and interpret the margin of
error for a sample proportion and a sample mean.

Margin of Error

The margin of error of an estimate describes how far, at most, we expect


the estimate to vary from the true population value.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3rd Edition 3


Estimating a Margin of Error

Estimating the Margin of Error for a Proportion

To estimate the margin of error for a sample proportion resulting from a


random sample of size n:
1. Simulate the distribution of the sample proportion for many random
samples of size n assuming that the true population value is equal to
the sample proportion from the original sample.
2. Multiply the standard deviation of the simulated distribution by 2 to
get the margin of error.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3rd Edition 4


Can’t buy me love (or can you?)
Margin of error for a proportion
PROBLEM: A recent Harris Poll (
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/vault/Harris%20Poll%2012%20-%
20Valentine's%20Day_2.12.2015.pdf) surveyed a random sample of 2232 U.S. adults.
Overall, 33% of the people in the sample somewhat or strongly agreed that they
“expect to receive gifts on Valentine’s Day.” The dotplot shows the proportion who
somewhat or strongly agree that they expect to receive gifts on Valentine’s Day in each
of 500 random samples of size 2232 from a population where 33% would somewhat or
strongly agree.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3rd Edition 5


Can’t buy me love (or can you?)
Margin of error for a proportion
(a) Use the results of the
simulation to approximate the
margin of error for the Harris Poll’s
estimate of the proportion of U.S.
adults who somewhat or strongly
agree that they expect to get
Valentine’s Day gifts.
margin of error

(b) Interpret the margin of error.


We expect the true proportion of all U.S. adults who somewhat or
strongly agree that they expect to receive gifts on Valentine’s Day to be at
most 0.022 from the estimate of 0.33.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3rd Edition 6


Estimating a Margin of Error

Estimating the Margin of Error for a Mean

To estimate the margin of error for a sample mean resulting from a random
sample of size n:
1. Simulate the distribution of the sample mean for many random
samples of size n taken with replacement from the original sample.
2. Multiply the standard deviation of the simulated distribution by 2 to
get the margin of error.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3rd Edition 7


Are we there yet?
Margin of error for a mean
PROBLEM: One question in the Census at School survey is “How long does it
usually take you to get to school?” Students were instructed to round to the nearest
minute. Here is a random sample of the responses from 20 U.S. students from grades 9-
12: 15 3 8 25 10
8 25 5 20 10
17 40 24 10 25
30 20 8 6 10

The sample mean for these data is min.


The dotplot shows the distribution of the sample mean time to travel to school for 400
random samples of size 20 taken with replacement from the original sample.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3rd Edition 8


Are we there yet?
Margin of error for a mean
(a) Use the results of the
simulation to approximate the
margin of error for the estimate of
the mean time to travel to school.
margin of error min.

(b) Interpret the margin of error.


We expect the true mean travel time to school for all U.S 9th-12th grade
students who took the Census at School survey to be at most 4.234 min
from the estimate of 15.95 min.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3rd Edition 9


LESSON APP 3.4 Can you roll your tongue?

Many people can roll their tongues, but some can’t. Javier is interested in
determining the proportion of students at his school that can roll their tongue.
In a random sample of 100 students, Javier determines that 70 can roll their
tongue. The dotplot below shows the proportion of people who can roll their
tongue in each of 500 random samples of size 100 from a population where
70% can roll their tongue.

0.85

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3rd Edition 10


LESSON APP 3.4 Can you roll your tongue?

0.85

1. Use the results of the simulation to approximate the margin of error for
Javier’s estimate of the proportion of students at his school that can roll
their tongue.
2. Interpret the margin of error.
3. Javier’s biology teacher claims that 75% of people can roll their tongue.
According to Javier’s study, is this claim plausible? Explain.
4. Explain how Javier could decrease the margin of error.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3rd Edition 11


LESSON APP 3.4 Can you roll your tongue?

1. Use the results of the simulation to approximate the margin of error for
Javier’s estimate of the proportion of students at his school that can roll
their tongue.

2. Interpret the margin of error.

3. Javier’s biology teacher claims that 75% of people can roll their tongue.
According to Javier’s study, is this claim plausible? Explain.

4. Explain how Javier could decrease the margin of error.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3rd Edition 12


Estimating a Margin of Error
Learning Targets
After this lesson, you should be able to:

 Use simulation to approximate the margin of error for a sample


proportion and interpret the margin of error.
 Use simulation to approximate the margin of error for a sample mean
and interpret the margin of error.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3rd Edition 13

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