Discrete Probability Distributions

Chapter 6

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Learning Objectives
LO6-1 Identify the characteristics of a probability distribution
LO6-2 Distinguish between discrete and continuous
random variables
LO6-3 Compute the mean, variance, and standard deviation of a
discrete probability distribution
LO6-4 Explain the assumptions of the binomial distribution
and apply it to calculate probabilities
LO6-5 Explain the assumptions of the hypergeometric
distribution and apply it to calculate probabilities

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What is a Probability Distribution?
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION A listing of all the outcomes of an
experiment and the probability associated with each outcome.

CHARACTERISTICS OF A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

1. The probability of a particular outcome is between 0 and 1 inclusive.
2. The outcomes are mutually exclusive.
3. The list of outcomes is exhaustive. So the sum of the probabilities of the
outcomes is equal to 1.

For example, a drug manufacturer may claim a treatment will

cause weight loss for 80 percent of the population. A consumer
protection agency may test the treatment on a sample of six
people. If the manufacturer’s claim is true, it is almost impossible
to have an outcome where no one in the sample loses weight and
it is most likely that five out of the six do lose weight.
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 This chapter will begin the study of probability distributions.
 A probability distribution gives the entire range of values that can
occur based on an experiment.
 A probability distribution is similar to a relative frequency
distribution. But instead of describing past, it describes a likely
future event.
 In this chapter, we discuss the mean, variance, and standard
deviation of a probability distribution.
 We also discuss three frequently occurring probability distributions:
Binomial, Hypergeometric, and Poisson distributions.

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 Probability Distribution Example
 Suppose we are interested in the number of heads showing
face up with 3 tosses of a coin
 The possible outcomes are 0 heads, 1 head, 2 heads, and 3
heads
What is the probability distribution for the number of heads?

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Probability Distribution Table
 Discrete probability distribution table and chart for the
events of zero, one, two, and three heads

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Random Variables
 In any experiment of chance, the outcomes occur randomly, and so
are called random variables
 Some experiments result in outcomes that are quantitative (such as
dollars, weight, or number of children)
 Others result in qualitative outcomes (such as color or religious
preference). Each value of the random variable is associated with a
probability to indicate the chance of a particular outcome.

RANDOM VARIABLE A quantity resulting from an experiment that,

by chance, can assume different values.
Examples
 The number of employees absent on Monday, the number might be
0, 1, 2, 3, …The number absent is the random variable.
 The grade level (Freshman, Sophomore, Junior, or Senior) of the
members of basketball team. The grade level is a random variable
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How do you tell the difference between the two types
of distributions?
 Usually a discrete distribution is the result of counting
something , such as
• The number of heads appearing when a coin is tossed 3 times.
• The number of students earning an A in this class.
• The number of production employees absent from the second shift today.
• The number of 30-second commercials on NBC from 8 to 11 P.M. tonight.

 Continuous distributions are usually the result of some type of

measurement, such as:
• The weight of each student in this class
• The temperature outside as you are reading this book.
• The amount of money earned by each of the more than 750 players currently
on Major Baskteball.

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Two Types of Random Variables
 One type of random variable is the discrete random
variable
 Discrete variables are usually the result of counting
DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE A random variable that can
assume only certain clearly separated values.

Examples
 Tossing a coin three times and counting the number of
heads
 A bank counting the number of credit cards carried by a
group of customers

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Discrete Random Variable
 For example, the Bank of the Carolinas counts the number
of credit cards carried by a group of customers
 The number of cards carried is the discrete random
variable

Number of Credit Cards Relative Frequency

0 .03
1 .10
2 .18
3 .21
4 or more .48
Total 1.00

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Continuous Random Variables
 Continuous random variables can assume an infinite
number of values within a given range
 Continuous variables are usually the result of measuring

Examples
 The time between departure flights from KAIA are 0.23
minutes, 0.30 m, 15.8 m, and so on
 Tire pressure, measured in (psi), for a car might be 32.78
psi, 31.62 psi, 33.07 psi, and so on. In other words, any
values between 28 and 35 could reasonably occur. The
random variable is the tire pressure.

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Mean and Variance of a Discrete
Probability Distribution
 The mean is a typical value used to represent the central
location of the probability dist. (data)
 The mean is also referred to as the expected value

 The amount of spread (or variation) in the data is

described by the variance

 The standard deviation of the probability distribution is

the positive square root of the variance
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Probability Distribution Mean Example

John Ragsdale sells new cars

for Pelican Ford. John
usually sells the most cars on
Saturday. He has developed a 1. What type of distribution is this?
probability distribution for 2. How many cars does John expect
the number of cars he to sell on a typical Saturday?
expects to sell on Saturday. 3. What is the variance?

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Probability Distribution Variance
Example
 The computational steps for variance
 Subtract the mean from each value of x and square
 Multiply each squared difference by its probability
 Sum the resulting products to arrive at the variance

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 Probability Distribution Variance
Example
 Shortcut Formula

   x . p( x )  
2 2 2

 2  02  0.1  12  0.2  2 2  0.3  32  0.3  4 2  0.1  2.12

 2  5.7  2.12  1.29

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Binomial Distribution
 There are four requirements of a binomial probability
distribution
1. There are only two possible outcomes and the outcomes are
mutually exclusive, as either a success or a failure
2. The number of trials is fixed and known
3. The probability of a success is the same for each trial
4. Each trial is independent of any other trial

 Example
 A young family has two children, both boys. The probability
of the third birth being a boy is still .50. The gender of the
third child is independent of the gender of the other two.
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Binomial Probability Experiment
 Use the number of trials, n, and the probability of a success,
to compute binomial probability
BINOMIAL PROBABILITY EXPERIMENT
1. An outcome on each trial of an experiment is classified into one of
two mutually exclusive categories — a success or a failure.
2. The random variable is the number of successes in a fixed number of
trials.
3. The probability of success is the same for each trial.
4. The trials are independent, meaning that the outcome of one trial
does not affect the outcome of any other trial.

 Note: Do not confuse the symbol with the mathematical

constant 3.1416
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How is a Binomial Probability Computed?

There are five flights daily from Pittsburgh. Suppose the probability that any flight
arrives late is .20.

What is the
probability that none P(x) = nCr(
of the flights are late P(0) = 5C0(
today? = (1)(1)(.3277) = .3277
What is the
probability that P(x) = nCr(
exactly one of the P(1) = 5C1(
flights is late today? = (1)(1)(.4096) = .4096
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Binomial Probability Distribution

There are five flights daily from Pittsburgh. Suppose the probability that any flight
arrives late is .20. What is the probability that none of the flights are late today?
What is the probability that exactly 1 of the flights is late today?

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Shortcut Formulas

 Using the preceding example of flights into Bradford

Airport; n=5 and

.80
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Binomial Probability Tables
 Tables are already constructed for use as well
In the Southwest, 5% of all cell phone calls are dropped. What is the probability
that out of six randomly selected calls, none was dropped? Exactly one? Exactly
two? Exactly three? Exactly four? Exactly five? Exactly six out of six? See the
table below for the answers.

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Cumulative Binomial Probability Distributions
A study by the Illinois Department of Transportation concluded that 76.2% of
front seat occupants wore seat belts. That is, both occupants of the front seat were
using their seat belts. Suppose we decide to compare that information with current
usage. We select a sample of 12 vehicles.
1. What is the probability that the front seat occupants in exactly 7 of the 12
vehicles are wearing seat belts?
P(x) = nCr(

P(x=7) = 12C7(
= 792(.149171)(.000764) = .0902
2. What is the probability that at least 7 of the 12 front seat occupants are
wearing seat belts?
P(x≥7) = P(x=7) + P(x=8) + P(x=9) + P(x=10) + P(x=11) + P(x=12)
=.0902 + .1805 + .2569 + .2467 + .1436 + .0383
=.9562
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Hypergeometric Distribution
 When sampling from relatively small populations without
replacement, use the hypergeometric distribution

HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY EXPERIMENT

1. An outcome on each trial of an experiment is classified into one of two
mutually exclusive categories — a success or a failure.
2. The random variable is the number of successes in a fixed number of trials.
3. The trials are not independent.
4. We assume that we sample from a finite population without replacement and
n/N > 0.05. So, the probability of a success changes for each trial.

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Hypergeometric Formula

PlayTime Toys Inc. employs 50 people in

the Assembly Dept. Forty of the
employees belong to a union and 10 do = = .431
not. Five employees are selected at
random to form a committee. What is the
probability that four of the five belong to
a union.

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Hypergeometric Probabilities

Union Members Probability

0 .000
1 .004
2 .044
3 .210
4 .431
5 .311
1.000

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