CSIT217

Module-III
Decision……….

Definition:

A choice that you make about something after thinking about several possibilities:
dictionary.cambridge.org
Decision - Types
Based on the nature and objective of decision we can categorized
decision into:

Tactical and Strategic Decisions

• Tactical decisions are those which a manager makes over and over
again adhering to certain established rules, policies and procedures.
They are of repetitive nature and related to general functioning.

• Strategic decisions on the other hand are relatively more difficult. They
influence the future of the business and involve the entire organization.
Decisions pertaining to objective of the business, capital expenditure,
plant layout, production etc., are examples of strategic decisions.
examples of repetitive nature and related to general functioning.
Decision - Types

Based on the nature and objective of decision we can

categorized decision into:
Programmed and Non-programmed Decisions
• The programmed decisions are basically of a routine type for which
systematic procedures have been devised so that the problem may
not be treated as a unique case each time it crops up.

• The non-programmed decisions are complex and deserve a specific

treatment. It requires a thorough study of the causes of such a
situation and after analyzing all factors a solution can be found
through problem solving process.
Decision - Types
Based on the nature and objective of decision we can
Categorized decision into:

Operational Decisions

• Operational decisions relate to day-to-day operations of the enterprise

having a short-term horizon and are always repeated
• Operational Decisions are taken at lower level of management
Decision - Types
Difference between Programmed and
Un-programmed Decisions

Programmed Decisions Un-Programmed Decisions

• Concerned with routine • Concerned with Unique problems

problems • Non repetitive in nature
• Repetitive in nature • Unstructured
• Structured • Complex and have a long term
• Simple and have a small impact impact
• Pre-established policies and • Not used
procedures are used • Not easily available
• Information regarding these • Demands time and discretion
problems is readily available • Top Management
• Consumes less time and efforts
• Lower Executives
Decision Making with Information
system
Decision Making Process..
Decision Making Process..
Awareness of the problem
• At this stage the decision maker becomes aware about a problem that is to be solved

Diagnose and stat the problem

• The decision maker understands and analyses the problem and the objective of the solution.

Develop the alternatives

• This stage involves collection of data regarding the problem and formulation of different alternate course of action.

Evaluate the alternative

• It of the evaluation of the various alternative on the basis of the feasibility of particular action, situation, resources,
time period in which the objective has to be achieved.
Select the best alternative
• After analyzing and evaluating the possible outcomes of each course of action the most suitable, feasible and
profitable option is selected
Implement and verify the decision
• This step involves implementing the decision and making sure that the selecting course of action meets the expected
outcomes.
Feedback
• Decision making is a continuous process hence a feedback from all the parties involved with implanting the decision is
taken
Problem solving
and
Decision Making
Problem solving
and
Decision Making
Decision Support System

A DSS is an interactive, flexible,

and adaptable computer-based
information system that utilizes
decision rules, models, and
model base coupled with a Thus, a DSS supports complex decision
comprehensive database and making and increases its effectiveness.
the decision maker’s own
insights, leading to specific,
implementable decisions in
solving problems that would not
be amenable to management
science models.
DSS-Characteristics

It’s a management support system whose capabilities go beyond those of MIS

It is individual specific

Extensively uses databases

Helps decision makers to carry out “What if” analysis.

Has extensive querying capabilities

Is effective in providing assistance to solve semi-structured problems at all

levels.
DSS Subsystems
Data management subsystems:
• This holds the required data to be used in decision making. It provides the
facilities for organizing, storing and querying the data.

Model Management subsystem:

• A model in simple terms, presents the relationships between various
parameters of the system. It gives a mathematical description of reality.

Knowledge management subsystem:

• It consists of rules that can constrain possible solution as well as
alternative solutions and methods for evaluating them.

Dialogue management subsystem/ User Interface:

• It acts as the gateway for the user to communicate with the DSS. It
provides necessary on-line context sensitive help to various kinds of users
DSS Categories..

Model Driven Knowledge Document Communication

Data Driven DSS:
DSS: Driven DSS: Driven DSS: Driven DSS
• A Data Driven • It includes • It suggest or • It helps • It includes
DSS provides systems that recommend managers to communication
access to and use accounting actions to gather, , collaboration
manipulation and financial managers. retrieve, and decision
of large models, They use classify, and support
databases of representation business rules manage technologies.
structured al model and and knowledge unstructured
data. It includes optimization bases. documents,
management models. including web
reporting pages.
systems, data
warehousing
etc.
Executive Information System

Executive Information system is a type of Information system, designed to meet the

strategic information needs of top level executives.

The main objective or EiS (Executive Information Systems) is to provide in real time
representative information to the high-level management. to support strategic
activities such as goal setting, planning and forecasting, and also tracking
performance.

Another objective of these systems is to gather. analyze, and integrate internal and
external data into dynamic profiles of key performance indicators. Based on each
executive's information needs. EiS can access both historical and real-time data
through ad-hoc queries.
CHARACTERISTICS OF EIS
The definitions in the previous section highlight some of the key characteristics of executive
information systems. The characteristics/capabilities of executive information systems are:

Executive information systems are tailored to management style

of individual executive users.

Filters, compresses, and tracks critical

Provides drill-down capabilities to executives

Designed with managements critical success factors in mind

Status access, trend analysis, and exception reporting

CHARACTERISTICS OF EIS
The definitions in the previous section highlight some of the key characteristics of executive
information systems. The characteristics/capabilities of executive information systems are:

personalized analysis

Navigation of information

Provides access to and integrates internal and external data .i.e., aggregate (global)
information

User-friendly and requires minimal or no training to use

used directly by executives without intermediaries

Present graphical, tabular, and/or textual

 What is a Multi-Dimensional Database?

A multidimensional database (MDDB) is a computer software

system designed to allow for the efficient and convenient storage and
retrieval of large volumes of data that are
• Intimately related and
• Stored, viewed and analyzed from different perspectives.
• These perspectives are called dimensions.

20
 Example…………………..

An automobile manufacturer wants to increase sale volumes by examining sales

data collected throughout the organization. The evaluation would require viewing
historical sales volume figures from multiple dimensions such as

• Sales volume by model

• Sales volume by color
• Sales volume by dealer
• Sales volume over time
 Multidimensional Structure

Measurement
Dimension

Dimension
Positions
Mutlidimensional Representation
Viewing Data - An Example

•Assume that each dimension has 10 positions, as shown in the cube above
•How many records would be there in a relational table?
•Implications for viewing data from an end-user standpoint?
Example

Total Sales across all colors and dealers when model =

SEDAN?

◼ RDBMS – all 1000 records must be searched to get the answer

◼ MDB – Sum the contents of one 10x10 ‘slice’
Benefits Of EIS
The use of executive information systems by executives
Provides several benefits for them

Increases the quality of decision-making (i.e., fast decisions and actions)

Provides a competitive advantage

Meets the needs of executives

More comprehensive analysis

Greater confidence

Improved service (speeding up of the flow of information)

Benefits Of EIS
The use of executive information systems by executives
Provides several benefits for them

Changing of the business focus

Saves time for user

Facilitates the attainment of organizational objectives

Provides better control in organizations

Improves communications (increase in capacity and quality)

Finds causes of problems

KNOWLEDGE KNOWLEDGE
AND
MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING
KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

Knowledge management may simply be defined as doing what is needed to get

the most out to knowledge resources.

Knowledge Management is the process of gathering a firm’s collective expertise

wherever resides

KM caters to the critical issues of organizational adaptation, survival and

competences in the face of increasingly discontinuous environmental change.

Knowledge management is the classification, dissemination and categorization

of information and people throughout an organization.
KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

The concept of Knowledge Management contains several integral

parts
• Using accessible knowledge from outside sources.
• Embedding and storing knowledge in business processes,
products and services.
• Representing knowledge in database and documents.
• Promoting knowledge growth through the organization’s culture
and incentives.
• Transferring and sharing knowledge throughout the organization.
• Assessing the value of knowledge assets and impact on a regular
basis
KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

KM is the process of capturing and making use of a firm’s collective

expertise

Anywhere in the business-on paper, in

Or in people’s heads called Tacit
documents in database-called Explicit
Knowledge. Knowledge.
KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT
Ideal Knowledge Management
Knowledge Management Process

KM processes refer to the ways that an organization handles knowledge at

various stages of its life in an organization (KM cycle).
There are four main knowledge management processes, and each process
comprises two sub-processes:

Knowledge Knowledge
Knowledge capture Knowledge sharing
discovery application

Combinat Socializat Externaliz Internaliz Socializat

Exchange Direction Routines
ion ion ation ation ion
Knowledge Management Process

Knowledge discovery may be defined as the development

of new tacit or explicit knowledge from data and
information or from the synthesis of prior knowledge.

New explicit knowledge is discovered

through combination, wherein the In the case of tacit knowledge, the
multiple bodies of explicit knowledge integration of multiple streams for the
(data and/or information) are synthesized creation of new knowledge occurs
to create new, more complex sets of through the mechanism of socialization
explicit knowledge

Data mining techniques may be used to

Socialization is the synthesis of tacit
uncover new relationships among explicit
knowledge across individuals, usually
data that may be lead to create predictive
through joint activities rather than written
or categorization models that create new
or verbal instructions.
knowledge
Knowledge Management Process

Knowledge capture is the process by which

knowledge is converted from tacit to explicit form
(residing within people, artifacts or organizational
entities) and vice versa through the sub-processes
of externalization and internalization.
Internalization is the sub-
Externalization is the sub-
process through which workers
process through which an
acquire tacit knowledge. It
organization captures the tacit
represents the traditional
knowledge its workers possess
notion of learning. Knowledge
so that it can be documented,
capture can also be conducted
verbalized and shared.
outside an organization.
Knowledge Management Process

Knowledge sharing is the process through which explicit

or tacit knowledge is communicated to other individuals.
• Typical Examples of Knowledge Sharing:
• Writing books or research papers
• Delivering a lecture or making a speech or presentation
• Participating in a dialogue over coffee or lunch
• Participating in Communities of Practice
• Mentoring a new staff; shadowing an expert

Exchange is used to communicate or transfer explicit

knowledge among individuals, groups and organizations.
Knowledge Management Process

Knowledge application is when available

knowledge is used to make decisions and perform
tasks through direction and routines.
Direction refers to the
process through which the
Routines involve the
individual possessing the
utilization of knowledge
knowledge directs the action
embedded in procedures,
of another individual without
rules, norms and processes
transferring to that
that guide future behavior.
individual the knowledge
underlying the direction.
KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERING

‘Knowledge engineering is
the process or developing
knowledge based systems in
any field, whether it be in the
public or private sector, in
commerce or in industry’
KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERING
Knowledge Engineering includes the process of
knowledge acquisition, knowledge representation,
software design and implementation.

To meet the objective of Use an appropriate

Acquire the knowledge
designing a KBS, the method for representing
from the expert to be
knowledge engineer will knowled.ge in a symbolic,
used in the system.
have to: processable form
KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERING

Types of Knowledge
Procedural
knowledge provides Meta-knowledge is
Declarative alternative actions knowledge about
Knowledge tells us based on the use of knowledge. It helps
The knowledge
facts about things. facts to obtain know us understand how
engineer will ledge. For example experts use
For example, the
normally be dealing an individual will knowledge to make
statement. A light
with three types of normally cheek the decisions. For
bulb requires
knowledge:
electricity to shine is amount of water in a example knowledge
factually correct. kettle before turning about planes and
it on: if there is trains might be
insufficient water in useful when planning
the kettle, then more a long.
will be added.
Roles in knowledge-system development
Knowledge
provider

Knowledge Knowledge
manager engineer/analyst

Knowledge
Project manager
system developer

Knowledge user
Knowledge provider/specialist

“Traditional” expert

Person with extensive experience in an application domain

Can provide also plan for domain familiarization

• “Where would you advise a beginner to start?”

Inter-provider differences are common

Need to assure cooperation

Knowledge engineer

Specific kind of system analyst

Should avoid becoming an "expert"

Plays a liaison function between application domain and

system
Knowledge-system developer

Person that implements a knowledge system on a particular

target platform

Needs to have general design/implementation expertise

Needs to understand knowledge analysis

• But only on the “use”-level

Role is often played by knowledge engineer

Knowledge user
Primary users
• interact with the prospective system

Secondary users
• are affected indirectly by the system

Level of skill/knowledge is important factor

May need extensive interacting facilities

• explanation

His/her work is often affected by the system

• consider attitude / active tole
Project manager

Responsible for planning, scheduling and monitoring

development work

Liaises with client

Typically medium-size projects (4-6 people)

Profits from structured approach

Knowledge manager

Background role

Monitors organizational purpose of

• System(s) developed in a project
• Knowledge assets developed/refined

Initiates (follow-up) projects

Should play key role in reuse

May help in setting up the right project team

Roles in knowledge-system development
Knowledge Engineering Process

Acquisition of knowledge
• General knowledge or meta-knowledge
• From experts, books, documents, sensors, files

Knowledge representation
• Organized knowledge

Knowledge validation and verification

Inferences
• Software designed to pass statistical sample data to generalizations

Explanation and justification capabilities

Knowledge Engineering Process
Application of KBS

Knowledge Application Systems support the process through

which some individuals utilize knowledge possessed by other
individuals without actually acquiring, or learning, that knowledge.

Knowledge application technologies, which support direction and

routines includes:

Fault diagnosis
Decision
Advisor (or Help desk
Expert systems support
systems troubleshootin system
systems
g) systems
Artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a

computer program or a machine to think like
humans do.
Artificial Intelligence..

The field of study The are of

The automation
that seeks to creating machines
of activities that
explain and that performs
we associate with
emulate functions that
human thinking,
intelligent require
activities such as
behavior in terms intelligence when
decision, problem
of computational performed by
solving. Learning.
processes. people.
Artificial Intelligence- Goals

Systems Systems
that think that act
like like
humans humans

Systems Systems
that think that act
rationally rationally
 Disrupting Industries

Financial Services

Retail

Automotive

Healthcare

HR and Recruitment
Applications of AI

Deep Blue- A chess-Playing computer beat Garry Kasporov in1996

Fuzzy logic- A technique for reasoning under uncertainty. A type of

logic that recognizes more than simple true and false values.

Expert system- The primary goal of expert systems research is to

make expertise available to decision makers and technicians.

Neural networks- Neural nets are used in bioinformatics to map

data and make predictions.

Machine vision- It is a computer that makes decisions based on the

analysis of digital images.
Applications of AI
Optical Character recognition- It can translate arbitrary typewritten script into
optical character recognition is a method of recognizing text that has been
photographical scanned into computer.

Handwritten recognition- It is used in millions of personal digital assistants.

Speech recognition- Speech recognition is the ability of a computer system to

respond accurately to verbal commands.

Computer algebra systems

Computer vision systems

Domains- AI
The domain of AI is classified into Formal tasks, Mundane
tasks, and Expert task

Mundane
Formal Tasks Formal Tasks
(Ordinary) Tasks

Engineering
Natural Computer Fault Financial
Mathematic
Language Vision Finding Analysis,
s Geometry Verification
Processing, Speech, Manufacturi Medical
Logic
Robotics Voice ng Diagnosis
Monitoring
Expert System

Feigenbaum, defined an expert

system as “an intelligent computer
program that uses knowledge and
inference procedures to solve
problems that are difficult enough
to require significant human
expertise for their solution.
Expert System

An expert system solves problems in a narrow domain of

expertise and cannot be a general problem solver.
• For example. An expert system should not attempt to
solve problems in a very broad domain, such as “the
medical domain,” but instead it would address specific
subareas of the medical domain. This is demonstrated by
MYCIN and Internist which are expert systems for
diagnosing infectious blood diseases and internal medicine
problems respectively.
MYCIN
MYCIN
The Consultation Program is the core of the system; it interacts with the
physician to obtain information about the patient, generating diagnoses and
therapy recommendations.

The Explanation Program provides explanations and justifications for the

program’s actions.

The Knowledge-Acquisition Program is used by experts to update the

system’s knowledge base.
MYCIN

IF the infection is pimary-bacteremia

AND the site of the culture is one of the sterile sites

AND the suspected portal of entry is the gastrointestinal tract

THEN there is suggestive evidence (0.7) that infection is bacteroid.

• The 0.7 is roughly the certainty that the conclusion will be true given the
evidence. If the evidence is uncertain the certainties of the bits of evidence will
be combined with the certainty of the rule to give the certainty of the
conclusion.
Expert System- Advantages
The Expert system is a repository of valuable information.

The expert system can be indispensible when human expertise is not accessible.

Expert systems could be more efficient and cost effective than human systems.

It crosses the local boundary to provide global knowledge.

A flexible, adaptable expert system can grow modularly and be constantly kept up to
date.

It can be used to train future human experts

It will readily explain the WHY and HOW of its conclusions and predictions. This adds to
system credibility and user friendliness.

It is helpful in high employee turnover and low human performance situation.

It is very useful developing countries where human expertise is rare and expensive.
Expert System- Drawbacks

An expert system can’t reason on the basis of a human “gut feelings” of

intuition, or even of common sense.

An expert system is confined to a restricted domain of expertise; it can’t

easily integrate expertise from other domains, not it can generalize reliably.

The learning capability is not as good as the human experts.

The knowledge in an expert system is highly dependent upon the human

expert expressing and articulating knowledge in the form that can be used in
a knowledge base.
 Suitability Criteria for Expert System:
Domain: Expertise: Complexity: Structure: Availability:

The solution An expert

Solutions to Solution of the
process must exists who is
the problem problem is a
be able to cope articulate and
require the complex task
The domain, or with ill- cooperative,
efforts of an that requires
subject area, structured, and who has
expert. That is, logical
of the problem uncontained, the support of
a body of inference
is relatively missing, and the
knowledge, processing,
small and conflicting management
techniques, which would
limited to a data and a and end users
and intuition is not be handled
well defined problem involved in the
needed that as well by
problem area. situation that development
only a few conventional
change with of the
people information
the passage of proposed
possess. processing.
time. system.