Chapter 3

Probability

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 Chapter Outline
• 3.1 Basic Concepts of Probability and Counting
• 3.2 Conditional Probability and the Multiplication
Rule
• 3.3 The Addition Rule
• 3.4 Additional Topics in Probability and Counting

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 Section 3.1

Basic Concepts of Probability and

Counting

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 Section 3.1 Objectives
• How to identify the sample space of a probability
experiment and how to identify simple events
• How to use the Fundamental Counting Principle to find
the number of ways two or more events can occur
• How to distinguish among classical probability, empirical
probability, and subjective probability
• How to find the probability of the complement of an event
• How to use a tree diagram and the Fundamental Counting
Principle to find probabilities

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 Probability Experiments
Probability experiment
• An action, or trial, through which specific results (counts,
measurements, or responses) are obtained.
Outcome
• The result of a single trial in a probability experiment.
Sample Space
• The set of all possible outcomes of a probability
experiment.
Event
• Consists of one or more outcomes and is a subset of the
sample space.
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 Example: Identifying the Sample
Space of a Probability Experiment
A survey consists of asking people for their blood types
(O, A, B, and AB), including whether they are Rh-
positive or Rh-negative. Determine the number of
outcomes and identify the sample space.
Solution:
There are four blood types: O, A, B, and AB. Each
person is either Rh-positive or Rh-negative. A tree
diagram gives a visual display of the outcomes by
using branches that originate from a starting point. It
can be used to find the number of possible outcomes in
a sample space as well as individual outcomes.
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 Solution: Identifying the Sample
Space of a Probability Experiment
Tree diagram:

The sample space has eight possible outcomes, which

are listed below.
{O+, O– , A+, A–, B+, B–, AB+, AB–}
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 Simple Events
Simple event
• An event that consists of a single
outcome.
 e.g. “Tossing heads and rolling a 3”
A = {H3}

• An event that consists of more than one

outcome is not a simple event.
 e.g. “Tossing heads and rolling an
even number” B ={H2, H4, H6}
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 Example: Identifying Simple
Events
Determine the number of outcomes in each event. Then
decide whether each event is simple or not. Explain
your reasoning.
1. For quality control, you randomly select a machine
part from a batch that has been manufactured that
day. Event A is selecting a specific defective
machine part.
Solution:
Event A has only one outcome: choosing the specific
defective machine part. So, the event is a simple event.
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 Example: Identifying Simple
Events
Determine the number of outcomes in each event. Then
decide whether each event is simple or not. Explain
your reasoning.
2. You roll a six-sided die. Event B is rolling at least
a 4.

Solution:
Event B has three outcomes: rolling a 4, a 5, or a 6.
Because the event has more than one outcome, it is not
simple.

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 The Fundamental Counting
Principle
The Fundamental Counting Principle
• If one event can occur in m ways and a second event
can occur in n ways, the number of ways the two
events can occur in sequence is m ∙ n.
• Can be extended for any number of events occurring
in sequence.

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 Example: Using the Fundamental
Counting Principle
You are purchasing a new car. The possible
manufacturers, car sizes, and colors are listed in the
table.

How many different ways can you select one

manufacturer, one car size, and one color? Use a tree
diagram to check your result.

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 Solution: Using the Fundamental
Counting Principle
There are three choices of manufacturers, two
car sizes, and four colors.
Using the Fundamental Counting Principle:
3 ∙ 2 ∙ 4 = 24 ways

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 Example: Using the Fundamental
Counting Principle
The access code for a car’s security system consists of
four digits. Each digit can be any number from 0
through 9.

How many access codes are possible when

1. each digit can be used only once and not repeated?
2. each digit can be repeated?
3. each digit can be repeated but the first digit cannot
be 0 or 1?
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 Solution: Using the Fundamental
Counting Principle
Solution
1. Because each digit can be used only once, there are
10 choices for the first digit, 9 choices left for the
second digit, 8 choices left for the third digit, and 7
choices left for the fourth digit. Using the
Fundamental Counting Principle, you can conclude
that there are
10 9 8 7 = 5040
possible access codes.

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 Solution: Using the Fundamental
Counting Principle
Solution
2. Because each digit can be repeated, there are 10
choices for each of the four digits. So, there are
10 10 10 10 = 104 = 10,000
possible access codes.
3. Because the first digit cannot be 0 or 1, there are 8
choices for the first digit. Then there are 10 choices
for each of the other three digits. So, there are
8 10 10 10 = 8000
possible access codes.

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 Solution: Using the Fundamental
Counting Principle
Solution
Remember that you can use technology to check your
answers. For instance, a TI-84 Plus was used to check
the results.

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 Types of Probability
Classical (theoretical) Probability
• Each outcome in a sample space is equally likely.

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 Example: Finding Classical
Probabilities
You roll a six-sided die. Find the probability of each
event.
1. Event A: rolling a 3
2. Event B: rolling a 7
3. Event C: rolling a number less than 5

Solution:
Sample space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

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 Solution: Finding Classical
Probabilities
1. Event A: rolling a 3 Event A = {3}
1
P (rolling a 3)   0.167
6
2. Event B: rolling a 7 Event B= { } (7 is not in
0 the sample
P(rolling a 7)   0
space) 6
3. Event C: rolling a number less than 5
Event C = {1, 2, 3, 4}
4
P (rolling a number less than 5)   0.667
6
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 Types of Probability
Empirical (statistical) Probability
• Based on observations obtained from probability
experiments.
• Relative frequency of an event.

Note that n =

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 Example: Finding Empirical
Probabilities
A company is conducting an online survey of randomly
selected U.S. adults to determine how they read books
during the past year, if at all. So far, 1490 adults have
been surveyed. The pie chart shows the results. (Note that
digital books include ebooks as well as audio books.)
What is the probability that the
next adult surveyed read only
print books during the last
year?(Pew Research Center,
September 2016, “Book
Reading 2016”)
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 Solution: Finding Empirical
Probabilities
Solution
• Note that the responses are not equally likely to occur
and are based on observations.
• You cannot use the formula for classical probability,
but you can use the formula for empirical probability.
• The event is a response of “read only print books.”
The frequency of this event is 578. The total of the
frequencies is
n = 578 + 91 + 426 + 395 = 1490.

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 Solution: Finding Empirical
Probabilities
Solution
• The empirical probability that the response of the
next adult is “read only print books” is
P(read only print books) = 0.388.

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 Example: Using a Frequency
Distribution to Find Probabilities
A company is conducting a phone survey of randomly
selected individuals to determine the ages of social
networking site users. So far, 975 social networking site
users have been surveyed. The
frequency distribution shows
the results. What is the
probability that the next user
surveyed is 23 to 35 years old?
(Adapted from Pew Research
Center)

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 Solution: Using a Frequency
Distribution to Find Probabilities
Solution
• Because the responses are not equally likely to occur
and are based on observations, use the formula for
empirical probability.
• The event is a response of “23 to 35 years old.” The
frequency of this event is 312.
• The total of the frequencies is 975, the empirical
probability that the next user is 23 to 35 years old is
P(age 23 to 35) = = 0.32.

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 Law of Large Numbers
Law of Large Numbers
• As an experiment is repeated over and over, the
empirical probability of an event approaches the
theoretical (actual) probability of the event.

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 Types of Probability
Subjective Probability
• Intuition, educated guesses, and estimates.
• e.g. A doctor may feel a patient has a 90% chance of a
full recovery.

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 Example: Classifying Types of
Probability
Classify the statement as an example of classical
probability, empirical probability, or subjective
probability. Explain your reasoning.
1. The probability that you will get an A on your
next test is 0.9.

Solution:
Subjective probability (most likely an educated guess)

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 Example: Classifying Types of
Probability
Classify the statement as an example of classical
probability, empirical probability, or subjective
probability. Explain your reasoning.
2. The probability that a voter chosen at random will be
younger than 35 years old is 0.3.

Solution:
Empirical probability (most likely based on a survey)

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 Example: Classifying Types of
Probability
Classify the statement as an example of classical
probability, empirical probability, or subjective
probability. Explain your reasoning.

3. The probability of winning a 1000-ticket raffle with

1
one ticket is 1000 .

Solution:
Classical probability (equally likely outcomes)

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 Range of Probabilities Rule
Range of probabilities rule
• The probability of an event E is between 0 and 1,
inclusive.
• 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1

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 Complementary Events
Complement of event E
• The set of all outcomes in a sample space that are not
included in event E.
• Denoted E ′ (E prime)
• P(E) + P(E ′) = 1
• P(E) = 1 – P(E ′)
• P(E ′) = 1 – P(E)

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 Example: Finding the Probability
of the Complement of an Event
Find the probability of randomly selecting a social
networking site user who is not 23 to 35 years old.

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 Solution: Finding the Probability
of the Complement of an Event
Use empirical probability to find
P(age 23 to 35)
P(age 23 to 35) = = 0.32.

So, the probability that a user is not 23 to 35 years old is

P(age is not 23 to 35) = 1 = 0.68

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 Example: Using a Tree
Diagram
A probability experiment consists of tossing a coin and
spinning the spinner shown. The spinner is equally
likely to land on each number. Use a tree diagram to
find the probability of each event.
1. Event A: tossing a tail and spinning an odd number
2. Event B: tossing a head or
spinning a number greater
than 3

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 Solution: Probability Using a
Tree Diagram
Tree Diagram:
H T

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8

1. Event A = {T1, T3, T5, T7}

4 1
P(tossing a tail and spinning an odd number) =   0.25
16 4
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 Solution: Probability Using a
Tree Diagram
Tree Diagram:
H T

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8

2. Event B = {H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, H7, H8, T4, T5, T6, T7, T8}
P(tossing a head or spinning 13
=  0.813
a number greater than 3) 16
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 Example: Using the
Fundamental Counting Principle
Your college identification number consists of eight
digits. Each digit can be 0 through 9 and each digit can
be repeated. What is the probability of getting your
college identification number when randomly
generating eight digits?

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 Solution: Using the
Fundamental Counting Principle
• Each digit can be repeated
• There are 10 choices for each of the 8 digits
• Using the Fundamental Counting Principle, there are
10 ∙ 10 ∙ 10 ∙ 10 ∙ 10 ∙ 10 ∙ 10 ∙ 10
= 108 = 100,000,000 possible identification numbers
• Only one of those numbers corresponds to your ID
number
1
P(your ID number) = 100, 000, 000 or 0.00000001

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