Demographic challenges and rural livelihoods:

Implications for social protection

Natalia Winder,
Social Protection Team Leader, UN-FAO
IFAD, Rural Inequalities, May 2018
Overview
· The economic and productive impacts of social assistance: the case of Sub-Saharan
Africa

· Demographic challenges in rural areas: older persons and youth

· Implications for social protection coverage

· Opportunities

Social Protection: From Protection to Production

Social assistance: enhancing the economic capacity of the poor
· Social assistance (national cash transfer programmes) have become key components of
poverty reduction strategies across regio

· Ample evidence on impacts, including productive and economic

· FAO/UNICEF/UNC/SUK Partnership: Transfer Project

· Developing solid evidence on the broad range of impacts of national social assistance pprogrammes
in 7 countries in SSA

· Profile of beneficiaries

· Greater impacts on labor able and children, but: also impacts on labor constrained, including older
persons care of children; impacts on adolescent well-being, particularly in long-standing
programmes

Social Protection: From Protection to Production

Age distribution of program beneficiaries
Demographic challenges
• Recent UNDESA figures showing demographic transition across developing countries: declining levels
of lifetime fertility, reduction in infant mortality and increasing life expectancy
• Rural areas:
• Rural ageing population
• “Youth bulge”- particularly in Africa
• *Implications in terms of:
• Social protection coverage* and adequacy*
• Agriculture sector- depopulation/migration and availability of workforce
• Increasing vulnerability of those left behind, labor constrained

• Compounding challenges: limited coverage of social protection in rural areas; added vulnerabilities due
to conflict, climate change; low productivity of subsistence farms, limited opportunities for
industrialization

Social Protection: From Protection to Production

Poverty challenges: Rural areas
• 767 million people still live in extreme poverty
– Inequalities still pervasive
• 2 out of 3 people in extreme poverty live in rural areas
• Most of the poor depend –at least partly- on agriculture,
fishing or forest resources for their livelihoods
• Income inequality has risen within countries with rural
areas being disadvantaged, which leads to spatial poverty
traps
• Poor job prospects, limited social protection coverage
and and decent work deficits are among the determinants
of rural poverty and distress migration
• Women, youth, migrants, older persons, people with
disabilities, indigenous people, especially those in rural
areas, continue to face particular inequalities and
discrimination
• Climate change and conflict are exacerbating the current
situation
Social Protection: From Protection to Production
Social Protection coverage challenge: Rural areas
• Countries committed to ensure coverage of social protection to all (SDG 1.3)
• Coverage across all components of social protection: social assistance, social security and labor market
policies
• Progress in terms of expansion of social protection programmes over the last two decades, But…

Only 45 per cent of the global population is effectively covered by at least one social benefit, while the
remaining 55 per cent– 4 billion people – are left unprotected. (ILO 2018)
• Social assistance transfers have the broadest coverage in these regions. Social insurance is limited.
• In South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, the share of poorest quintile receives social assistance in 20-
30% (70% in LAC)
• In India, 90% of the agricultural sector is informal; in Lebanon, agricultural is seasonal and not
formalized within labor legislation

Social Protection: From Protection to Production

Access to social assistance*: Rural areas >urban
Share of rural and
urban population All countries (92)

covered by social
assistance, by East Asia & the Pacific, other than China (10)
region

Europe & Central Asia(18)

Latin America & the Caribbean (20) Rural

Urban
Notes: Number of
countries in
parentheses.
Middle East & North Africa (6)
Source: SOFA 2015/
Authors’ calculations
using World Bank
(2015d).
South Asia (8)

Sub Saharan Africa (30)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Social Protection: From Protection to Production

Access to social insurance*: rural areas lagging behind
Share of rural and
urban population
covered by social Coverage of All Social Insurence in rural and urban areas
insurance, by
region Sub Sahara Africa (29)

South Asia (6)

Near East and North Africa (6)

Latin America and the Caribbean (18)

Europe and central Asia (19)

East Asia and the Pacific (15)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Urban Rural

Source: ASPIRE dataset April 2018

The number of countries included is 92. The group of schemes included in
the SI definitions are Old Age Contributory Pensions-Old age, Survivors
and Disability- and Other Social Insurance- Occupational injury benefits,
Paid sick leave, Health Insurance, Maternity and Other social insurance.

Social Protection: From Protection to Production

Zooming in: Youth
Burgeoning youth populations lacking decent job prospects
• Mostly working in the informal sector and in vulnerable jobs, as own-
account workers or contributing family workers, mainly in agriculture
• In SSA, youth working poverty rates are at their highest, estimated to be 69
per cent in 2017 (both moderate and extreme poverty)
• 10-12 million new jobs will have to be created in Africa per year until
2035 to absorb the new entrants into the labour market

10
Social Protection: From Protection to Production
Social protection coverage: Youth
• In terms of coverage- looking at child grants (only), continues to be limited and many
of these do not cover adolescents/youth
• Only 35 per cent of children worldwide enjoy effective access to social protection, albeit with significant regional disparities. Almost two-
thirds of children globally – 1.3 billion children – are not covered, most of them living in Africa and Asia. (ILO 2018)

• Very few programs that are specifically targeted to youth, focused on specific needs as
they enter labor market- with the exception of some contributory programmes
• Example: Only 21.8 per cent of unemployed workers are covered by unemployment benefits, 152 million
unemployed workers remain without coverage. Unemployment benefits for first-time job seekers- limited
(ILO 2018)
• Evidence (*UNICEF) on the impact of national cash transfers in adolescent well being
and risk; access to secondary education, but limited analysis on access to jobs/markets
• New emerging work in Tanzania (looking at economic impacts)

Social Protection: From Protection to Production

Social protection coverage: Youth
Many outstanding questions:
• What happens to children (18+) that graduate from social assistance programmes? Links to job
intermediation, skill training and specific support?
• How many and what type of jobs (farm & off-farm) need to be created in rural areas to absorb new
labour market entrants?
• Tools and Investment: what needs to be done to ensure decent jobs in rural areas, quality education and
training, and better matching of labour supply and demand?
• Policy Coherence: What are the most effective policies to harness the development potential of decent
employment in order to create sustainable livelihood options in rural areas?

Social Protection: From Protection to Production

Social protection coverage (Older people)
Rural ageing population (Data: ILO 2018 report)
• “Worldwide, 68 per cent of people above retirement age receive an old-age pension, which is
associated with the expansion of both non-contributory and contributory pensions in many middle-
and low-income countries”. But..

• Policy concerns/perceptions persist: Pensions do not reach poorest in rural areas; too many barriers to
access

• Health coverage: in rural areas where 56 per cent of the population lack health coverage as
compared to 22 per cent in urban areas.

• Implications of limited to pensions not only in terms of well being of ageing households but also in
terms of access to land for youth

Social Protection: From Protection to Production

Barriers to access to social protection

When social protection systems exit… inadequacy of benefits

• Inadequacy in terms of size, correspondence based on specific livelihoods
• Labor-based social insurance not applicable if agriculture is not formalized under labor
legislation*
• Accessibility of services (eg: health) in rural settings
• Limited resources to contribute to systems
• Lack of trust in social security systems or perception that benefits are not relevant (ie: no benefits
regarding crop loss or disaster impact)
• Structure of social security systems may not be compatible with the instability (or seasonality) of
agricultural employment (ie: timeframe to receive benefits)
• Youth: limited specific design, linked with access to job market and productive opportunities
(linkages with rural finance, training and other)

Social Protection: From Protection to Production

Some options to explore….

• Visibility- nature and scope of coverage gap

• Farmer registries, with socio-economic variables (Eg: Lebanon)
• Alternative protection modalities, which are flexible and take into account the
diversity of the informal sector and their specific characteristics, eg (mutual funds,
farmer funds, etc)
• more flexible contribution payments to take into account income fluctuations or seasonal revenues
• introducing specific mechanisms to determine contribution levels for employees and self-
employed workers where real incomes are difficult to assess (capitation or lump-sum payment
based on size of economic activity, on area cultivated, etc.);
• Innovation:
• Eg: Community based health insurance (Ghana, Ethiopia); build on/or strengthen existing
rural/community based sp structures

• Specific to youth and older people??

Social Protection: From Protection to Production

Many thanks
http://www.fao.org/social-protection/en/